From a6aee33ef4250812d404c07ade847ecf4e764c55 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: "2569718930@qq.com" <2569718930@qq.com> Date: Fri, 27 Feb 2026 20:39:18 +0800 Subject: [PATCH] feat: add time-based sigma adjustment to probability engine using peak hour prediction --- bot_listener.py | 34 ++++++++++++++++++++++------------ 1 file changed, 22 insertions(+), 12 deletions(-) diff --git a/bot_listener.py b/bot_listener.py index 96c01645..d07461de 100644 --- a/bot_listener.py +++ b/bot_listener.py @@ -111,8 +111,19 @@ def analyze_weather_trend(weather_data, temp_symbol, city_name=None): is_cooling = "降温" in trend_desc + # === 峰值时刻预测（提前计算，供概率引擎使用）=== + peak_hours = [] + if times and temps and om_today is not None: + for t_str, temp in zip(times, temps): + if t_str.startswith(local_date_str) and abs(temp - om_today) <= 0.2: + peak_hours.append(t_str.split("T")[1][:5]) + if peak_hours: + first_peak_h = int(peak_hours[0].split(":")[0]) + last_peak_h = int(peak_hours[-1].split(":")[0]) + else: + first_peak_h, last_peak_h = 13, 15 - # === 集合预报区间 (去除了啰嗦的预报验证) === + # === 集合预报区间 === ensemble = weather_data.get("ensemble", {}) ens_p10 = ensemble.get("p10") ens_p90 = ensemble.get("p90") @@ -137,6 +148,15 @@ def analyze_weather_trend(weather_data, temp_symbol, city_name=None): sigma = (ens_p90 - ens_p10) / 2.56 if sigma < 0.1: sigma = 0.1 # 防止除以零 + # 时间修正：根据当前时间距峰值的位置调整 σ + # 峰值前：σ 不变（不确定性最大） + # 峰值窗口内：σ 缩小 30%（正在定型） + # 峰值后：σ 缩小 70%（基本确定） + if local_hour_frac > last_peak_h: + sigma *= 0.3 # 峰值已过，结果基本锁定 + elif first_peak_h <= local_hour_frac <= last_peak_h: + sigma *= 0.7 # 正在峰值窗口 + # 分布中心：以 DEB/多模型中位数为主锚（权重 70%），集合中位数为辅（30%） # 因为集合中位数经常偏保守，不如确定性模型和 DEB 融合值可靠 if forecast_median is not None: @@ -211,16 +231,8 @@ def analyze_weather_trend(weather_data, temp_symbol, city_name=None): insights.append(msg) ai_features.append(msg) - # === 峰值时刻预测 (只在还没过峰值时显示) === - peak_hours = [] - if times and temps and om_today is not None: - for t_str, temp in zip(times, temps): - if t_str.startswith(local_date_str) and abs(temp - om_today) <= 0.2: - peak_hours.append(t_str.split("T")[1][:5]) - + # === 峰值时刻 AI 提示 === if peak_hours: - first_peak_h = int(peak_hours[0].split(":")[0]) - last_peak_h = int(peak_hours[-1].split(":")[0]) window = f"{peak_hours[0]} - {peak_hours[-1]}" if len(peak_hours) > 1 else peak_hours[0] if local_hour <= last_peak_h: @@ -236,8 +248,6 @@ def analyze_weather_trend(weather_data, temp_symbol, city_name=None): elif first_peak_h <= local_hour_frac <= last_peak_h: ai_features.append(f"⏱️ 状态: 正处于预报最热窗口 ({window})内。") elif remain_hrs < 1: ai_features.append(f"⏱️ 状态: 距最热时段仅剩约 {int(remain_hrs * 60)} 分钟 ({window})。") else: ai_features.append(f"⏱️ 状态: 距最热时段还有约 {remain_hrs:.1f}h ({window})。") - else: - first_peak_h, last_peak_h = 13, 15 # === 其他 AI 专供的事实特征 === # 明确告知 AI 当前实测温度和今日最高温，避免 AI 从趋势数据中误读