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术语统一：合约/市场/交易 → 阈值/信号/实况路径/多模型预测

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2569718930@qq.com
2026-05-25 22:51:53 +08:00
parent a80280732c
commit a3db39909d
11 changed files with 207 additions and 67 deletions
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frontend/content/docs/docs.ts
+8 -8
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@@ -202,11 +202,11 @@ export const DOCS_PAGES: DocsPage[] = [
},
{
id: "market-layer",
title: "市场价格层怎么读",
title: "信号价格层怎么读",
blocks: [
{ type: "paragraph", text: "温度桶标签来自完整市场桶列表，并会按 label / slug / question 识别 exact、or higher、or lower、range 等方向，避免把 30.5°C 错配到不合理的 16°C 或反向尾部桶。" },
{ type: "callout", tone: "info", title: "模型-市场差", text: "模型-市场差 = 模型概率 − 市场隐含概率。正数表示天气概率高于市场报价；负数表示市场已经把该 YES 计价得更充分。它不是温度变化，也不是收益率。" },
{ type: "paragraph", text: "YES 买入价以可执行报价为主；没有可靠模型概率或 YES 价格时，决策卡会显示报价已匹配但暂不计算模型-市场差。" },
{ type: "paragraph", text: "温度桶标签来自完整信号桶列表，并会按 label / slug / question 识别 exact、or higher、or lower、range 等方向，避免把 30.5°C 错配到不合理的 16°C 或反向尾部桶。" },
{ type: "callout", tone: "info", title: "模型-信号差", text: "模型-信号差 = 模型概率 − 信号隐含概率。正数表示天气概率高于信号报价；负数表示信号已经把该 YES 计价得更充分。它不是温度变化，也不是收益率。" },
{ type: "paragraph", text: "YES 买入价以可执行报价为主；没有可靠模型概率或 YES 价格时，决策卡会显示报价已匹配但暂不计算模型-信号差。" },
],
},
{
@@ -240,11 +240,11 @@ export const DOCS_PAGES: DocsPage[] = [
},
{
id: "market-layer",
title: "How to read the market layer",
title: "How to read the signal layer",
blocks: [
{ type: "paragraph", text: "Bucket labels come from the full market bucket list. The card reads label / slug / question text to distinguish exact, or-higher, or-lower, and range buckets, so a 30.5°C weather center is not matched to an unreasonable 16°C or reverse-tail bucket." },
{ type: "callout", tone: "info", title: "Model-market difference", text: "Model-market difference = model probability minus market-implied probability. A positive value means the weather probability is above market pricing; a negative value means the YES is already priced more fully by the market. It is not a temperature delta or return." },
{ type: "paragraph", text: "YES buy uses executable quote data when available. If either model probability or YES price is incomplete, the card shows the quote match but withholds the model-market difference." },
{ type: "paragraph", text: "Bucket labels come from the full signal bucket list. The card reads label / slug / question text to distinguish exact, or-higher, or-lower, and range buckets, so a 30.5°C weather center is not matched to an unreasonable 16°C or reverse-tail bucket." },
{ type: "callout", tone: "info", title: "Model-signal difference", text: "Model-signal difference = model probability minus signal-implied probability. A positive value means the weather probability is above signal pricing; a negative value means the YES is already priced more fully by the signal. It is not a temperature delta or return." },
{ type: "paragraph", text: "YES buy uses executable quote data when available. If either model probability or YES price is incomplete, the card shows the quote match but withholds the model-signal difference." },
],
},
{