Group model stack and dedupe DEB families

2026-04-17 00:35:48 +08:00
parent 7909a16002
commit 9ec86e0504
5 changed files with 461 additions and 38 deletions
@@ -0,0 +1,91 @@
+from src.analysis.deb_algorithm import (
+    _collapse_forecasts_for_deb,
+    calculate_dynamic_weights,
+)
+
+
+def test_deb_collapses_regional_model_families_before_blending():
+    collapsed = _collapse_forecasts_for_deb(
+        {
+            "ECMWF": 20.0,
+            "ECMWF AIFS": 20.5,
+            "GFS": 19.5,
+            "ICON": 21.0,
+            "ICON-EU": 21.4,
+            "ICON-D2": 21.8,
+            "GEM": 18.8,
+            "GDPS": 19.0,
+            "RDPS": 19.4,
+            "HRDPS": 20.2,
+            "JMA": 19.8,
+        }
+    )
+
+    assert collapsed == {
+        "ECMWF": 20.0,
+        "ECMWF AIFS": 20.5,
+        "GFS": 19.5,
+        "ICON-D2": 21.8,
+        "HRDPS": 20.2,
+        "JMA": 19.8,
+    }
+
+
+def test_deb_equal_weight_uses_deduped_family_values(monkeypatch):
+    monkeypatch.setattr("src.analysis.deb_algorithm.load_history", lambda _: {})
+
+    blended, info = calculate_dynamic_weights(
+        "ankara",
+        {
+            "ECMWF": 20.0,
+            "GFS": 20.0,
+            "ICON": 30.0,
+            "ICON-EU": 40.0,
+            "ICON-D2": 50.0,
+        },
+    )
+
+    assert blended == 30.0
+    assert "家族去重" in info
+
+
+def test_deb_weighted_path_uses_deduped_family_values(monkeypatch):
+    monkeypatch.setattr(
+        "src.analysis.deb_algorithm.load_history",
+        lambda _: {
+            "ankara": {
+                "2026-04-14": {
+                    "actual_high": 22.0,
+                    "forecasts": {
+                        "ECMWF": 22.0,
+                        "GFS": 21.0,
+                        "ICON-D2": 30.0,
+                    },
+                },
+                "2026-04-15": {
+                    "actual_high": 23.0,
+                    "forecasts": {
+                        "ECMWF": 23.0,
+                        "GFS": 22.0,
+                        "ICON-D2": 31.0,
+                    },
+                },
+            }
+        },
+    )
+
+    blended, info = calculate_dynamic_weights(
+        "ankara",
+        {
+            "ECMWF": 24.0,
+            "GFS": 24.0,
+            "ICON": 32.0,
+            "ICON-EU": 34.0,
+            "ICON-D2": 36.0,
+        },
+        lookback_days=5,
+    )
+
+    assert blended < 30.0
+    assert "ICON-D2" in info
+    assert "家族去重" in info