Add full probability distributions to dashboard

This commit is contained in:
2569718930@qq.com
2026-04-22 01:43:13 +08:00
parent f9eff36aae
commit 974b55e34f
7 changed files with 65 additions and 14 deletions
+13 -2
View File
@@ -594,7 +594,9 @@ def analyze_weather_trend(
# === Probability Engine ===
probabilities: List[Dict[str, Any]] = []
probabilities_all: List[Dict[str, Any]] = []
shadow_probabilities: List[Dict[str, Any]] = []
shadow_probabilities_all: List[Dict[str, Any]] = []
forecast_miss_deg = 0.0
probability_features = None
calibration_summary = {
@@ -621,6 +623,7 @@ def analyze_weather_trend(
probabilities = [
{"value": settled_wu, "range": f"[{settled_wu-0.5}~{settled_wu+0.5})", "probability": 1.0}
]
probabilities_all = probabilities
elif (ens_p10 is not None and ens_p90 is not None) or fallback_sigma:
# Forecast miss magnitude
if max_so_far is not None and forecast_median is not None:
@@ -665,6 +668,7 @@ def analyze_weather_trend(
)
mu = probs_result.get("mu", mu)
probabilities = probs_result.get("probabilities", [])
probabilities_all = probs_result.get("probabilities_all", probabilities)
sorted_probs = probs_result.get("sorted_probs", [])
probability_features = build_probability_features(
@@ -698,10 +702,12 @@ def analyze_weather_trend(
"calibration_source": calibration_result.get("calibration_source"),
}
shadow_probabilities = calibration_result.get("shadow_distribution") or []
shadow_probabilities_all = calibration_result.get("shadow_distribution_all") or shadow_probabilities
if calibration_result.get("engine") == "emos":
mu = calibration_result.get("calibrated_mu", mu)
sigma = calibration_result.get("calibrated_sigma", sigma)
probabilities = calibration_result.get("distribution") or probabilities
probabilities_all = calibration_result.get("distribution_all") or probabilities_all or probabilities
sorted_probs = calibration_result.get("selected_sorted_probs") or sorted_probs
if sorted_probs:
@@ -926,7 +932,9 @@ def analyze_weather_trend(
structured = {
"mu": mu,
"probabilities": probabilities,
"probabilities_all": probabilities_all or probabilities,
"shadow_probabilities": shadow_probabilities,
"shadow_probabilities_all": shadow_probabilities_all or shadow_probabilities,
"probability_engine": calibration_summary["engine"],
"probability_calibration_mode": calibration_summary["mode"],
"probability_calibration_version": calibration_summary["calibration_version"],
@@ -999,21 +1007,24 @@ def calculate_prob_distribution(
total_p = sum(probs.values())
sorted_probs = []
probabilities = []
probabilities_all = []
if total_p > 0:
norm_probs = {k: v / total_p for k, v in probs.items()}
sorted_probs = sorted(norm_probs.items(), key=lambda x: x[1], reverse=True)
for t, p in sorted_probs[:4]:
for t, p in sorted_probs:
rng_str = f"[{t}.0~{t+1}.0)" if is_exact else f"[{t-0.5}~{t+0.5})"
probabilities.append({
probabilities_all.append({
"value": int(t),
"range": rng_str,
"probability": round(p, 3)
})
probabilities = probabilities_all[:4]
return {
"mu": mu,
"sigma": sigma,
"probabilities": probabilities,
"probabilities_all": probabilities_all,
"sorted_probs": sorted_probs
}