Finalize SQLite defaults and refresh calibration artifacts

scripts/backfill_daily_record_model_gaps.py

@@ -16,6 +16,7 @@ from src.analysis.probability_snapshot_archive import (  # noqa: E402
     load_snapshot_rows_for_day,
 )
 from src.database.runtime_state import STATE_STORAGE_FILE, get_state_storage_mode  # noqa: E402
+from scripts.fit_probability_calibration import _default_history_arg  # noqa: E402
 
 
 def _load_daily_records(path: Path) -> Dict[str, Dict[str, Dict[str, Any]]]:
@@ -53,8 +54,8 @@ def main() -> int:
     )
     parser.add_argument(
         "--history-file",
-        default=str(Path("data") / "daily_records.json"),
-        help="Path to daily_records.json",
+        default=_default_history_arg(),
+        help="Optional legacy daily_records.json path. In sqlite mode this defaults to the runtime database.",
     )
     parser.add_argument("--city", help="Optional city filter, e.g. ankara")
     parser.add_argument("--date", help="Optional YYYY-MM-DD filter")
@@ -70,8 +71,8 @@ def main() -> int:
     )
     args = parser.parse_args()
 
-    history_path = Path(args.history_file)
-    data = _load_daily_records(history_path)
+    history_path = Path(args.history_file) if args.history_file else None
+    data = _load_daily_records(history_path or Path())
     model_name = str(args.model or "").strip()
     city_filter = str(args.city or "").strip().lower() or None
     date_filter = str(args.date or "").strip() or None
@@ -133,8 +134,8 @@ def main() -> int:
     if changed:
         previous_mode = get_state_storage_mode()
         # Reuse existing save path semantics. In sqlite-only mode, save_history would skip file write.
-        save_history(str(history_path), data)
-        if previous_mode == STATE_STORAGE_FILE and not history_path.exists():
+        save_history(str(history_path or ""), data)
+        if previous_mode == STATE_STORAGE_FILE and (history_path is None or not history_path.exists()):
             raise FileNotFoundError(history_path)
 
     return 0

scripts/backfill_probability_shadow_history.py

@@ -13,6 +13,7 @@ from src.analysis.probability_calibration import (  # noqa: E402
     apply_probability_calibration,
     build_probability_features,
 )
+from scripts.fit_probability_calibration import _default_history_arg  # noqa: E402
 
 
 def _sample_to_features(sample):
@@ -44,7 +45,7 @@ def main():
     parser = argparse.ArgumentParser(description="Backfill shadow probability snapshots into daily records.")
     parser.add_argument(
         "--history-file",
-        default=os.path.join(PROJECT_ROOT, "data", "daily_records.json"),
+        default=_default_history_arg(),
     )
     parser.add_argument(
         "--training-samples",

scripts/backfill_recent_daily_actuals_from_metar.py

@@ -9,6 +9,7 @@ if PROJECT_ROOT not in sys.path:
 
 from src.analysis.deb_algorithm import load_history, reconcile_recent_actual_highs, save_history  # noqa: E402
 from src.data_collection.city_registry import CITY_REGISTRY  # noqa: E402
+from scripts.fit_probability_calibration import _default_history_arg  # noqa: E402
 
 
 def _target_dates(city_info: dict, lookback_days: int) -> list[str]:
@@ -50,7 +51,7 @@ def main() -> None:
     )
     args = parser.parse_args()
 
-    history_file = os.path.join(PROJECT_ROOT, "data", "daily_records.json")
+    history_file = _default_history_arg() or ""
     data = load_history(history_file)
 
     selected = {str(item).strip().lower() for item in args.cities if str(item).strip()}

scripts/build_probability_shadow_report.py

@@ -11,6 +11,7 @@ if PROJECT_ROOT not in sys.path:
 
 from src.analysis.deb_algorithm import load_history  # noqa: E402
 from src.analysis.settlement_rounding import apply_city_settlement  # noqa: E402
+from scripts.fit_probability_calibration import _default_history_arg  # noqa: E402
 
 
 def _sf(value):
@@ -112,7 +113,7 @@ def main():
     parser = argparse.ArgumentParser(description="Build live shadow probability report from daily records.")
     parser.add_argument(
         "--history-file",
-        default=os.path.join(PROJECT_ROOT, "data", "daily_records.json"),
+        default=_default_history_arg(),
     )
     parser.add_argument(
         "--output",

scripts/evaluate_probability_calibration.py

@@ -16,6 +16,7 @@ from src.analysis.probability_calibration import (  # noqa: E402
 )
 from src.analysis.settlement_rounding import apply_city_settlement  # noqa: E402
 from scripts.fit_probability_calibration import (  # noqa: E402
+    _default_history_arg,
     _extract_samples,
     _load_json_if_exists,
 )
@@ -61,7 +62,7 @@ def main():
     parser = argparse.ArgumentParser(description="Evaluate legacy vs EMOS probability calibration.")
     parser.add_argument(
         "--history-file",
-        default=os.path.join(PROJECT_ROOT, "data", "daily_records.json"),
+        default=_default_history_arg(),
     )
     parser.add_argument(
         "--settlement-history",

scripts/export_probability_training_dataset.py

@@ -8,6 +8,8 @@ if PROJECT_ROOT not in sys.path:
     sys.path.insert(0, PROJECT_ROOT)
 
 from scripts.fit_probability_calibration import (  # noqa: E402
+    _default_history_arg,
+    _default_snapshot_arg,
     _extract_samples,
     _load_history_with_fallback,
     _load_json_if_exists,
@@ -19,7 +21,7 @@ def main():
     parser = argparse.ArgumentParser(description="Export normalized probability calibration training samples.")
     parser.add_argument(
         "--history-file",
-        default=os.path.join(PROJECT_ROOT, "data", "daily_records.json"),
+        default=_default_history_arg(),
     )
     parser.add_argument(
         "--settlement-history",
@@ -41,7 +43,7 @@ def main():
     )
     parser.add_argument(
         "--snapshot-file",
-        default=os.path.join(PROJECT_ROOT, "data", "probability_training_snapshots.jsonl"),
+        default=_default_snapshot_arg(),
     )
     args = parser.parse_args()
 

scripts/fit_probability_calibration.py

@@ -16,6 +16,7 @@ from src.analysis.probability_calibration import (  # noqa: E402
 from src.analysis.deb_algorithm import load_history  # noqa: E402
 from src.database.runtime_state import (  # noqa: E402
     ProbabilitySnapshotRepository,
+    STATE_STORAGE_FILE,
     STATE_STORAGE_SQLITE,
     get_state_storage_mode,
 )
@@ -38,6 +39,22 @@ def _load_json_if_exists(path):
     return data if isinstance(data, dict) else {}
 
 
+def _legacy_history_path():
+    return os.path.join(PROJECT_ROOT, "data", "daily_records.json")
+
+
+def _legacy_snapshot_path():
+    return os.path.join(PROJECT_ROOT, "data", "probability_training_snapshots.jsonl")
+
+
+def _default_history_arg():
+    return _legacy_history_path() if get_state_storage_mode() == STATE_STORAGE_FILE else None
+
+
+def _default_snapshot_arg():
+    return _legacy_snapshot_path() if get_state_storage_mode() == STATE_STORAGE_FILE else None
+
+
 def _load_history_with_fallback(path):
     data = load_history(path)
     if data:
@@ -253,8 +270,8 @@ def main():
     parser = argparse.ArgumentParser(description="Fit PolyWeather probability calibration parameters.")
     parser.add_argument(
         "--history-file",
-        default=os.path.join(PROJECT_ROOT, "data", "daily_records.json"),
-        help="Path to the historical daily_records.json file.",
+        default=_default_history_arg(),
+        help="Optional legacy daily_records.json path. In sqlite mode this defaults to the runtime database.",
     )
     parser.add_argument(
         "--output",
@@ -273,8 +290,8 @@ def main():
     )
     parser.add_argument(
         "--snapshot-file",
-        default=os.path.join(PROJECT_ROOT, "data", "probability_training_snapshots.jsonl"),
-        help="Optional JSONL file with archived probability snapshots.",
+        default=_default_snapshot_arg(),
+        help="Optional legacy JSONL snapshot archive path. In sqlite mode this defaults to the runtime database.",
     )
     parser.add_argument(
         "--version",