From 8bf98a77b80d0a80f5c66c404d37a50d98d45020 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: "2569718930@qq.com" <2569718930@qq.com>
Date: Thu, 26 Feb 2026 17:57:37 +0800
Subject: [PATCH] Please provide the diff for
`e:\web\PolyWeather\bot_listener.py` to generate an accurate commit message.
---
bot_listener.py | 31 +++++++++++++++++++++++--------
1 file changed, 23 insertions(+), 8 deletions(-)
diff --git a/bot_listener.py b/bot_listener.py
index dccb3c6b..adde6eed 100644
--- a/bot_listener.py
+++ b/bot_listener.py
@@ -134,11 +134,21 @@ def analyze_weather_trend(weather_data, temp_symbol):
# === 博弈区间提醒 (基于 WU 四舍五入结算) ===
if len(labeled_forecasts) >= 2:
import math
- # 用标准四舍五入 (6.5→7)，不用 Python 的银行家舍入 (6.5→6)
wu_round = lambda v: math.floor(v + 0.5)
settlement_vals = sorted(set(wu_round(v) for _, v in labeled_forecasts))
unit_short = temp_symbol
- if len(settlement_vals) == 1:
+ # 如果实测已超所有预报，用实测值重新评估博弈区间
+ if max_so_far is not None and forecast_high is not None and max_so_far > forecast_high + 0.5:
+ actual_settled = wu_round(max_so_far)
+ if actual_settled not in settlement_vals:
+ all_vals = sorted(set(settlement_vals + [actual_settled]))
+ else:
+ all_vals = settlement_vals
+ insights.append(
+ f"🎲 博弈区间：模型预报已失效！实测最高 {max_so_far}{unit_short} → WU {actual_settled}{unit_short}，"
+ f"但温度仍可能继续变化。"
+ )
+ elif len(settlement_vals) == 1:
insights.append(f"🎲 博弈区间：{len(labeled_forecasts)}个模型全部指向 {settlement_vals[0]}{unit_short} 结算。")
elif len(settlement_vals) == 2:
insights.append(f"🎲 博弈区间：温度在 {settlement_vals[0]}{unit_short} 和 {settlement_vals[1]}{unit_short} 之间博弈。")
@@ -279,11 +289,14 @@ def analyze_weather_trend(weather_data, temp_symbol):
insights.append(f"⏳ 最热时段进行中：虽然在最热时段了，但离预报 {ref}{temp_symbol} 还差 {gap:.1f}°，继续观察。")
elif local_hour < first_peak_h:
# 还没到峰值窗口
- gap_to_high = forecast_high - (max_so_far if max_so_far is not None else curr_temp)
- if gap_to_high > 1.2:
- insights.append(f"📈 还在升温：离最热时段还有 {first_peak_h - local_hour} 小时，温度还会继续往上走。")
+ if is_breakthrough:
+ insights.append(f"🔥 超预报升温：还没到最热时段就已经超过所有预报了，峰值可能远超模型预期。")
else:
- insights.append(f"🌅 快到最热了：马上就要进入最热时段，温度已经接近预报高位了。")
+ gap_to_high = forecast_high - (max_so_far if max_so_far is not None else curr_temp)
+ if gap_to_high > 1.2:
+ insights.append(f"📈 还在升温：离最热时段还有 {first_peak_h - local_hour} 小时，温度还会继续往上走。")
+ else:
+ insights.append(f"🌅 快到最热了：马上就要进入最热时段，温度已经接近预报高位了。")
else:
# 回退逻辑
@@ -499,7 +512,10 @@ def analyze_weather_trend(weather_data, temp_symbol):
else:
timing_factors.append(f"距峰值{hours_to_peak}h")
- if consensus_level == "high":
+ if is_breakthrough:
+ # 模型全部预测错了，共识一致但方向错误，不加分
+ timing_factors.append("⚠️模型已失效")
+ elif consensus_level == "high":
timing_score += 2
timing_factors.append("模型一致")
elif consensus_level == "medium":
@@ -508,7 +524,6 @@ def analyze_weather_trend(weather_data, temp_symbol):
elif consensus_level == "low":
timing_factors.append("模型分歧大")
else:
- # unknown: 数据源不足，无法评估共识
timing_factors.append("仅单源")
if max_so_far is not None and forecast_high is not None and (is_peak_passed or hours_to_peak <= 3):