From 8609376c59fe7184bb926af058304669dd133b37 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: "2569718930@qq.com" <2569718930@qq.com>
Date: Wed, 27 May 2026 21:40:26 +0800
Subject: [PATCH] feat: add versioned DEB bias backtesting

---
 .env.example                         |   6 +-
 .github/workflows/ci.yml             |   3 +
 .gitignore                           |   1 +
 README.md                            |   4 +-
 README_ZH.md                         |   6 +-
 docker-compose.yml                   |   3 +
 docs/MODEL_STACK_AND_DEB_ZH.md       |  42 +++-
 frontend/.env.example                |   6 +-
 frontend/.env.local                  |   6 +-
 frontend/.env.production             |   3 +
 frontend/Dockerfile                  |   6 +
 frontend/README.md                   |   6 +-
 frontend/lib/dashboard-types.ts      |   5 +
 scripts/backtest_deb_versions.py     |  70 ++++++
 src/analysis/deb_algorithm.py        |  76 +++++++
 src/analysis/deb_evaluation.py       | 319 +++++++++++++++++++++++++++
 src/analysis/trend_engine.py         |  33 ++-
 tests/test_deb_evaluation_upgrade.py | 121 ++++++++++
 tests/test_deb_model_family.py       |  37 ++++
 web/analysis_service.py              |  83 +++++--
 20 files changed, 792 insertions(+), 44 deletions(-)
 create mode 100644 scripts/backtest_deb_versions.py
 create mode 100644 src/analysis/deb_evaluation.py
 create mode 100644 tests/test_deb_evaluation_upgrade.py

diff --git a/.env.example b/.env.example
index b12b1466..3ac5b2b3 100644
--- a/.env.example
+++ b/.env.example
@@ -9,7 +9,7 @@
 ########################################
 ENV=production
 LOG_LEVEL=INFO
-POLYWEATHER_MAP_URL=https://polyweather-pro.vercel.app/
+POLYWEATHER_MAP_URL=https://polyweather.top/
 POLYWEATHER_RUNTIME_DATA_DIR=/var/lib/polyweather
 POLYWEATHER_DB_PATH=/var/lib/polyweather/polyweather.db
 OPEN_METEO_DISK_CACHE_PATH=/var/lib/polyweather/open_meteo_cache.json
@@ -21,7 +21,7 @@ GID=1000
 POLYWEATHER_STATE_STORAGE_MODE=sqlite
 # Backend CORS allowlist. Add your Vercel production/preview domains when
 # NEXT_PUBLIC_POLYWEATHER_API_BASE_URL points browsers directly at this backend.
-WEB_CORS_ORIGINS=http://localhost:3000,http://127.0.0.1:3000,https://polyweather-pro.vercel.app
+WEB_CORS_ORIGINS=http://localhost:3000,http://127.0.0.1:3000,https://polyweather.top,https://www.polyweather.top,https://api.polyweather.top
 
 ########################################
 # 2) Telegram bot minimal
@@ -39,7 +39,7 @@ TELEGRAM_QUERY_TOPIC_CHAT_ID=
 TELEGRAM_QUERY_TOPIC_ID=
 TELEGRAM_QUERY_TOPIC_MAP=
 POLYWEATHER_BOT_GROUP_INVITE_URL=
-POLYWEATHER_APP_URL=https://polyweather-pro.vercel.app
+POLYWEATHER_APP_URL=https://polyweather.top
 # Global Telegram auto-push copy: both, en, or zh. Module-specific vars can override it.
 TELEGRAM_PUSH_LANGUAGE=both
 # High-frequency airport push loop. Keep workers at 1 on shared VPS.
diff --git a/.github/workflows/ci.yml b/.github/workflows/ci.yml
index 26c8c091..543deb36 100644
--- a/.github/workflows/ci.yml
+++ b/.github/workflows/ci.yml
@@ -112,6 +112,9 @@ jobs:
             NEXT_PUBLIC_SITE_URL=${{ secrets.NEXT_PUBLIC_SITE_URL || 'https://polyweather.top' }}
             NEXT_PUBLIC_POLYWEATHER_API_BASE_URL=${{ secrets.NEXT_PUBLIC_POLYWEATHER_API_BASE_URL || '' }}
             NEXT_PUBLIC_POLYWEATHER_LOCAL_FULL_ACCESS=false
+            NEXT_PUBLIC_WALLETCONNECT_PROJECT_ID=${{ secrets.NEXT_PUBLIC_WALLETCONNECT_PROJECT_ID || '' }}
+            NEXT_PUBLIC_WALLETCONNECT_POLYGON_RPC_URL=${{ secrets.NEXT_PUBLIC_WALLETCONNECT_POLYGON_RPC_URL || 'https://polygon-bor-rpc.publicnode.com' }}
+            NEXT_PUBLIC_PAYMENT_ALLOWED_HOSTS=${{ secrets.NEXT_PUBLIC_PAYMENT_ALLOWED_HOSTS || 'polyweather.top,www.polyweather.top' }}
           cache-from: type=gha
           cache-to: type=gha,mode=max
 
diff --git a/.gitignore b/.gitignore
index 918f5e3f..1db2c2f2 100644
--- a/.gitignore
+++ b/.gitignore
@@ -9,6 +9,7 @@ data/*.db
 data/*.db-*
 data/*.db.*
 data/*.json
+data/*backtest*.csv
 data/logs/
 data/historical/
 data/cache/
diff --git a/README.md b/README.md
index 723b2c86..3e4c06d7 100644
--- a/README.md
+++ b/README.md
@@ -2,7 +2,7 @@
 
 Production weather-intelligence stack for temperature settlement markets.
 
-Official dashboard: [polyweather-pro.vercel.app](https://polyweather-pro.vercel.app/)
+Official dashboard: [polyweather.top](https://polyweather.top/)
 中文说明: [README_ZH.md](README_ZH.md)
 
 Public docs center: `/docs/intro` on the main site (bilingual product documentation, including intraday analysis, calibrated probability, model stack, TAF, settlement sources, history, and extension).
@@ -162,7 +162,7 @@ curl http://127.0.0.1:8000/metrics
 ### Frontend cache headers
 
 ```bash
-./scripts/validate_frontend_cache.sh "https://polyweather-pro.vercel.app"
+./scripts/validate_frontend_cache.sh "https://polyweather.top"
 ```
 
 ### Payment auto-reconciliation logs
diff --git a/README_ZH.md b/README_ZH.md
index 8154e8c9..decfb821 100644
--- a/README_ZH.md
+++ b/README_ZH.md
@@ -2,7 +2,7 @@
 
 面向温度结算市场的生产级气象情报系统。
 
-官方看板：[polyweather-pro.vercel.app](https://polyweather-pro.vercel.app/)
+官方看板：[polyweather.top](https://polyweather.top/)
 
 ## 产品截图
 
@@ -154,7 +154,7 @@ curl http://127.0.0.1:8000/metrics
 ### 外部监控栈
 
 ```bash
-./scripts/validate_frontend_cache.sh "https://polyweather-pro.vercel.app"
+./scripts/validate_frontend_cache.sh "https://polyweather.top"
 ```
 
 ### 支付自动补单日志
@@ -187,7 +187,7 @@ curl http://127.0.0.1:8000/api/payments/runtime
 
 ### 运营后台
 
-- 前端入口：`https://polyweather-pro.vercel.app/ops`
+- 前端入口：`https://polyweather.top/ops`
 - 后端需配置：
 
 ```env
diff --git a/docker-compose.yml b/docker-compose.yml
index a0735e1c..8c038c11 100644
--- a/docker-compose.yml
+++ b/docker-compose.yml
@@ -60,9 +60,12 @@ services:
     environment:
       NEXT_PUBLIC_POLYWEATHER_API_BASE_URL: ${NEXT_PUBLIC_POLYWEATHER_API_BASE_URL:-}
       NEXT_PUBLIC_POLYWEATHER_LOCAL_FULL_ACCESS: 'false'
+      NEXT_PUBLIC_PAYMENT_ALLOWED_HOSTS: ${NEXT_PUBLIC_PAYMENT_ALLOWED_HOSTS:-polyweather.top,www.polyweather.top}
       NEXT_PUBLIC_SITE_URL: ${NEXT_PUBLIC_SITE_URL:-https://polyweather.top}
       NEXT_PUBLIC_SUPABASE_ANON_KEY: ${NEXT_PUBLIC_SUPABASE_ANON_KEY}
       NEXT_PUBLIC_SUPABASE_URL: ${NEXT_PUBLIC_SUPABASE_URL}
+      NEXT_PUBLIC_WALLETCONNECT_POLYGON_RPC_URL: ${NEXT_PUBLIC_WALLETCONNECT_POLYGON_RPC_URL:-https://polygon-bor-rpc.publicnode.com}
+      NEXT_PUBLIC_WALLETCONNECT_PROJECT_ID: ${NEXT_PUBLIC_WALLETCONNECT_PROJECT_ID:-}
       POLYWEATHER_API_BASE_URL: ${POLYWEATHER_API_BASE_URL:-http://polyweather_web:8000}
       POLYWEATHER_AUTH_ENABLED: ${POLYWEATHER_AUTH_ENABLED:-true}
       POLYWEATHER_AUTH_REQUIRED: ${POLYWEATHER_AUTH_REQUIRED:-true}
diff --git a/docs/MODEL_STACK_AND_DEB_ZH.md b/docs/MODEL_STACK_AND_DEB_ZH.md
index 04db8c10..0b747239 100644
--- a/docs/MODEL_STACK_AND_DEB_ZH.md
+++ b/docs/MODEL_STACK_AND_DEB_ZH.md
@@ -2,7 +2,7 @@
 
 本文档记录 PolyWeather 当前开放模型接入、区域覆盖差异，以及 DEB 在新增模型后的计权规则。
 
-最后更新：`2026-04-18`
+最后更新：`2026-05-27`
 
 ## 1. 接入方式
 
@@ -165,11 +165,47 @@ raw current_forecasts
   -> 按模型家族去重
   -> 历史 MAE 统计
   -> MAE 倒数权重
-  -> 输出 blended_high + weights_info
+  -> 输出 raw blended_high
+  -> recent signed-bias correction
+  -> 输出 production prediction + raw_prediction + version
 ```
 
 当 `weights_info` 出现 `家族去重`，表示当前输入模型数量多于 DEB 实际入模数量，系统已先折叠同家族模型。
 
+### 5.1 版本化预测与偏差校正
+
+DEB 原始融合逻辑不推倒重写，`calculate_dynamic_weights(...)` 仍作为 raw baseline。线上生产入口使用 `calculate_deb_prediction(...)` 包装 raw baseline，并在有足够历史样本时追加城市级 recent signed-bias correction。
+
+当前版本：
+
+- `deb_v1_raw`：原始 DEB，最近模型误差倒数加权后的融合值。
+- `deb_v1_recent_bias_corrected`：在 raw DEB 上叠加最近已结算样本的有符号偏差校正。偏差使用 shrinkage，样本少时自动收缩，避免单日异常过拟合。
+
+API `deb` payload 会保留：
+
+- `prediction`：当前生产使用值。
+- `raw_prediction`：未经 recent-bias correction 的原始 DEB。
+- `version`：生产值对应的 DEB 版本。
+- `bias_adjustment` / `bias_samples`：城市级偏差校正幅度与训练样本数。
+- `intraday_adjustment`：网页 full detail 中额外的日内观测路径修正，仅用于当前日实时展示。
+
+版本化回测命令：
+
+```bash
+python scripts/backtest_deb_versions.py \
+  --output-json data/deb_backtest_latest.json \
+  --output-csv data/deb_backtest_latest.csv
+```
+
+本地 `data/polyweather.db` 于 2026-05-27 的回测样本显示：
+
+| 版本 | 样本 | MAE | RMSE | Bias | 结算桶命中率 |
+| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
+| `deb_v1_raw` | 1272 | 1.626 | 2.602 | -0.633 | 25.8% |
+| `deb_v1_recent_bias_corrected` | 1272 | 1.499 | 2.542 | +0.263 | 31.4% |
+
+该结果只证明当前历史样本上的离线表现改善；后续仍需要持续用版本化回测追踪不同城市、季节与结算源下的漂移。
+
 ## 6. 前端展示
 
 网页的模型展示读取：
@@ -228,6 +264,7 @@ raw current_forecasts
 
 - `tests/test_multi_model_sources.py`
 - `tests/test_deb_model_family.py`
+- `tests/test_deb_evaluation_upgrade.py`
 
 重点覆盖：
 
@@ -237,3 +274,4 @@ raw current_forecasts
 - DEB 家族去重
 - 历史不足时的去重等权
 - 有历史 MAE 时的去重动态权重
+- DEB raw/corrected 版本化评估、recent-bias correction、JSON/CSV 回测输出
diff --git a/frontend/.env.example b/frontend/.env.example
index 36c74808..0cea5e99 100644
--- a/frontend/.env.example
+++ b/frontend/.env.example
@@ -17,8 +17,8 @@ NEXT_PUBLIC_SUPABASE_ANON_KEY=
 
 # 必填：生产环境站点 URL（OAuth 回调强制使用此域名）
 # 设置后，所有登录回调将始终跳转到此域名，而非当前浏览器地址。
-# 生产环境必须设为 https://polyweather-pro.vercel.app
-NEXT_PUBLIC_SITE_URL=https://polyweather-pro.vercel.app
+# 生产环境必须设为 https://polyweather.top
+NEXT_PUBLIC_SITE_URL=https://polyweather.top
 
 # 常用：前端鉴权开关
 # true: 启用 Supabase 登录
@@ -37,7 +37,7 @@ POLYWEATHER_BACKEND_ENTITLEMENT_TOKEN=
 # 可选：钱包支付 / Telegram 入口
 NEXT_PUBLIC_WALLETCONNECT_PROJECT_ID=
 NEXT_PUBLIC_WALLETCONNECT_POLYGON_RPC_URL=https://polygon-bor-rpc.publicnode.com
-NEXT_PUBLIC_PAYMENT_ALLOWED_HOSTS=polyweather-pro.vercel.app
+NEXT_PUBLIC_PAYMENT_ALLOWED_HOSTS=polyweather.top,www.polyweather.top
 POLYWEATHER_OPS_ADMIN_EMAILS=yhrsc30@gmail.com
 NEXT_PUBLIC_TELEGRAM_GROUP_URL=https://t.me/your_group
 NEXT_PUBLIC_TELEGRAM_BOT_URL=https://t.me/polyyuanbot
diff --git a/frontend/.env.local b/frontend/.env.local
index 1d094089..e3feb295 100644
--- a/frontend/.env.local
+++ b/frontend/.env.local
@@ -18,7 +18,7 @@ NEXT_PUBLIC_SUPABASE_ANON_KEY=sb_publishable_1z0DR7nZ1Juf_HGTASA8WA_uxcHJnby
 
 # 必填：生产环境站点 URL（OAuth 回调强制使用此域名）
 # 设置后，所有登录回调将始终跳转到此域名，而非当前浏览器地址。
-# 生产环境必须设为 https://polyweather-pro.vercel.app
+# 生产环境必须设为 https://polyweather.top
 NEXT_PUBLIC_SITE_URL=https://polyweather.top
 
 # 常用：前端鉴权开关
@@ -43,9 +43,9 @@ POLYWEATHER_DASHBOARD_ACCESS_TOKEN=
 POLYWEATHER_BACKEND_ENTITLEMENT_TOKEN=
 
 # 可选：钱包支付 / Telegram 入口
-NEXT_PUBLIC_WALLETCONNECT_PROJECT_ID=
+NEXT_PUBLIC_WALLETCONNECT_PROJECT_ID=8ce6332b57a42e606cf28224e82d1e02
 NEXT_PUBLIC_WALLETCONNECT_POLYGON_RPC_URL=https://polygon-bor-rpc.publicnode.com
-NEXT_PUBLIC_PAYMENT_ALLOWED_HOSTS=polyweather-pro.vercel.app
+NEXT_PUBLIC_PAYMENT_ALLOWED_HOSTS=polyweather.top,www.polyweather.top
 POLYWEATHER_OPS_ADMIN_EMAILS=yhrsc30@gmail.com
 NEXT_PUBLIC_TELEGRAM_GROUP_URL=https://t.me/your_group
 NEXT_PUBLIC_TELEGRAM_BOT_URL=https://t.me/polyyuanbot
diff --git a/frontend/.env.production b/frontend/.env.production
index 76036db1..5eadb7cd 100644
--- a/frontend/.env.production
+++ b/frontend/.env.production
@@ -3,3 +3,6 @@ NEXT_PUBLIC_SUPABASE_ANON_KEY=sb_publishable_1z0DR7nZ1Juf_HGTASA8WA_uxcHJnby
 NEXT_PUBLIC_SITE_URL=https://polyweather.top
 NEXT_PUBLIC_POLYWEATHER_API_BASE_URL=https://api.polyweather.top
 NEXT_PUBLIC_POLYWEATHER_LOCAL_FULL_ACCESS=false
+NEXT_PUBLIC_PAYMENT_ALLOWED_HOSTS=polyweather.top,www.polyweather.top
+NEXT_PUBLIC_WALLETCONNECT_PROJECT_ID=8ce6332b57a42e606cf28224e82d1e02
+NEXT_PUBLIC_WALLETCONNECT_POLYGON_RPC_URL=https://polygon-bor-rpc.publicnode.com
diff --git a/frontend/Dockerfile b/frontend/Dockerfile
index 01263524..703e676f 100644
--- a/frontend/Dockerfile
+++ b/frontend/Dockerfile
@@ -11,12 +11,18 @@ ARG NEXT_PUBLIC_SUPABASE_ANON_KEY
 ARG NEXT_PUBLIC_SITE_URL
 ARG NEXT_PUBLIC_POLYWEATHER_API_BASE_URL
 ARG NEXT_PUBLIC_POLYWEATHER_LOCAL_FULL_ACCESS
+ARG NEXT_PUBLIC_WALLETCONNECT_PROJECT_ID
+ARG NEXT_PUBLIC_WALLETCONNECT_POLYGON_RPC_URL
+ARG NEXT_PUBLIC_PAYMENT_ALLOWED_HOSTS
 
 ENV NEXT_PUBLIC_SUPABASE_URL=$NEXT_PUBLIC_SUPABASE_URL
 ENV NEXT_PUBLIC_SUPABASE_ANON_KEY=$NEXT_PUBLIC_SUPABASE_ANON_KEY
 ENV NEXT_PUBLIC_SITE_URL=$NEXT_PUBLIC_SITE_URL
 ENV NEXT_PUBLIC_POLYWEATHER_API_BASE_URL=$NEXT_PUBLIC_POLYWEATHER_API_BASE_URL
 ENV NEXT_PUBLIC_POLYWEATHER_LOCAL_FULL_ACCESS=$NEXT_PUBLIC_POLYWEATHER_LOCAL_FULL_ACCESS
+ENV NEXT_PUBLIC_WALLETCONNECT_PROJECT_ID=$NEXT_PUBLIC_WALLETCONNECT_PROJECT_ID
+ENV NEXT_PUBLIC_WALLETCONNECT_POLYGON_RPC_URL=$NEXT_PUBLIC_WALLETCONNECT_POLYGON_RPC_URL
+ENV NEXT_PUBLIC_PAYMENT_ALLOWED_HOSTS=$NEXT_PUBLIC_PAYMENT_ALLOWED_HOSTS
 
 WORKDIR /app/frontend
 COPY --from=deps /app/frontend/node_modules ./node_modules
diff --git a/frontend/README.md b/frontend/README.md
index c2ea100a..e321e5f1 100644
--- a/frontend/README.md
+++ b/frontend/README.md
@@ -3,7 +3,7 @@
 PolyWeather Pro 的生产前端工程。
 
 线上地址：
-- [https://polyweather-pro.vercel.app/](https://polyweather-pro.vercel.app/)
+- [https://polyweather.top/](https://polyweather.top/)
 
 ## 技术栈
 
@@ -90,7 +90,7 @@ POLYWEATHER_BACKEND_ENTITLEMENT_TOKEN=
 # 钱包支付
 NEXT_PUBLIC_WALLETCONNECT_PROJECT_ID=
 NEXT_PUBLIC_WALLETCONNECT_POLYGON_RPC_URL=https://polygon-bor-rpc.publicnode.com
-NEXT_PUBLIC_PAYMENT_ALLOWED_HOSTS=polyweather-pro.vercel.app
+NEXT_PUBLIC_PAYMENT_ALLOWED_HOSTS=polyweather.top,www.polyweather.top
 POLYWEATHER_OPS_ADMIN_EMAILS=yhrsc30@gmail.com
 
 # 社群入口
@@ -144,7 +144,7 @@ Ops：
 
 当前前端已内置轻量管理页：
 
-- [https://polyweather-pro.vercel.app/ops](https://polyweather-pro.vercel.app/ops)
+- [https://polyweather.top/ops](https://polyweather.top/ops)
 
 页面当前支持：
 
diff --git a/frontend/lib/dashboard-types.ts b/frontend/lib/dashboard-types.ts
index c19c03dc..28ecccfd 100644
--- a/frontend/lib/dashboard-types.ts
+++ b/frontend/lib/dashboard-types.ts
@@ -206,7 +206,12 @@ export interface ForecastData {
 
 export interface DebForecast {
   prediction: number | null;
+  raw_prediction?: number | null;
+  version?: string | null;
   weights_info?: string | null;
+  bias_adjustment?: number | null;
+  bias_samples?: number | null;
+  intraday_adjustment?: number | null;
 }
 
 export interface CitySummary {
diff --git a/scripts/backtest_deb_versions.py b/scripts/backtest_deb_versions.py
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..78848c0a
--- /dev/null
+++ b/scripts/backtest_deb_versions.py
@@ -0,0 +1,70 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env python3
+"""Run versioned DEB backtests from runtime SQLite daily records."""
+
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import argparse
+import json
+import sys
+from pathlib import Path
+
+ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[1]
+if str(ROOT) not in sys.path:
+    sys.path.insert(0, str(ROOT))
+
+from src.analysis.deb_evaluation import (  # noqa: E402
+    backtest_deb_versions,
+    flatten_daily_records,
+    write_backtest_report,
+)
+from src.database.runtime_state import DailyRecordRepository, RuntimeStateDB  # noqa: E402
+
+
+def main() -> int:
+    parser = argparse.ArgumentParser(description=__doc__)
+    parser.add_argument("--db", default=str(ROOT / "data" / "polyweather.db"))
+    parser.add_argument(
+        "--output-json",
+        default=str(ROOT / "data" / "deb_backtest_latest.json"),
+    )
+    parser.add_argument(
+        "--output-csv",
+        default=str(ROOT / "data" / "deb_backtest_latest.csv"),
+    )
+    parser.add_argument("--train-lookback-days", type=int, default=30)
+    parser.add_argument("--min-train-samples", type=int, default=2)
+    args = parser.parse_args()
+
+    db = RuntimeStateDB(args.db)
+    daily_records = DailyRecordRepository(db).load_all()
+    history = flatten_daily_records(daily_records)
+    report = backtest_deb_versions(
+        history,
+        train_lookback_days=args.train_lookback_days,
+        min_train_samples=args.min_train_samples,
+    )
+    write_backtest_report(
+        report,
+        json_path=args.output_json,
+        csv_path=args.output_csv,
+    )
+    print(
+        json.dumps(
+            {
+                "schema_version": report.get("schema_version"),
+                "versions": report.get("versions"),
+                "rows": len(report.get("rows") or []),
+                "output_json": args.output_json,
+                "output_csv": args.output_csv,
+            },
+            ensure_ascii=False,
+            indent=2,
+        )
+    )
+    if not report.get("rows"):
+        return 2
+    return 0
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    raise SystemExit(main())
diff --git a/src/analysis/deb_algorithm.py b/src/analysis/deb_algorithm.py
index 482237d5..bdd1a345 100644
--- a/src/analysis/deb_algorithm.py
+++ b/src/analysis/deb_algorithm.py
@@ -1209,6 +1209,82 @@ def calculate_dynamic_weights(city_name, current_forecasts, lookback_days=7, dec
     return round(blended_high, 1), " | ".join(weight_str_parts)
 
 
+def calculate_deb_prediction(
+    city_name,
+    current_forecasts,
+    *,
+    lookback_days=7,
+    decay_factor=0.85,
+    bias_lookback_days=30,
+    bias_min_samples=3,
+    raw_calculator=None,
+):
+    """
+    Return the production DEB prediction with versioned recent-bias correction.
+
+    The raw DEB path remains `calculate_dynamic_weights`; this wrapper keeps the
+    raw value in the payload and only adds a conservative city-level signed-bias
+    adjustment when enough settled samples exist.
+    """
+    from src.analysis.deb_evaluation import (
+        DEB_RAW_VERSION,
+        DEB_RECENT_BIAS_CORRECTED_VERSION,
+        build_recent_bias_corrector,
+        flatten_daily_records,
+    )
+
+    calculate_raw = raw_calculator or calculate_dynamic_weights
+    raw_prediction, weights_info = calculate_raw(
+        city_name,
+        current_forecasts,
+        lookback_days=lookback_days,
+        decay_factor=decay_factor,
+    )
+    if raw_prediction is None:
+        return {
+            "prediction": None,
+            "raw_prediction": None,
+            "version": DEB_RAW_VERSION,
+            "weights_info": weights_info,
+            "bias_adjustment": 0.0,
+            "bias_samples": 0,
+        }
+
+    data = load_history(_get_history_file_path())
+    history_rows = flatten_daily_records(data)
+    corrected = build_recent_bias_corrector(
+        history_rows,
+        lookback_days=bias_lookback_days,
+        min_samples=bias_min_samples,
+    ).apply(city_name, raw_prediction)
+    bias_adjustment = float(corrected.get("bias_adjustment") or 0.0)
+    bias_samples = int(corrected.get("samples") or 0)
+    if bias_samples <= 0:
+        return {
+            "prediction": raw_prediction,
+            "raw_prediction": raw_prediction,
+            "version": DEB_RAW_VERSION,
+            "weights_info": weights_info,
+            "bias_adjustment": 0.0,
+            "bias_samples": 0,
+        }
+
+    next_weights_info = weights_info
+    if abs(bias_adjustment) >= 0.05:
+        next_weights_info = (
+            f"{weights_info or 'DEB'} | "
+            f"recent_bias({bias_adjustment:+.1f},n={bias_samples})"
+        )
+    return {
+        "prediction": corrected["corrected_prediction"],
+        "raw_prediction": corrected["raw_prediction"],
+        "version": DEB_RECENT_BIAS_CORRECTED_VERSION,
+        "weights_info": next_weights_info,
+        "bias_adjustment": bias_adjustment,
+        "bias_samples": bias_samples,
+    }
+
+
 def get_deb_accuracy(city_name):
     """
     计算 DEB 融合预测的历史准确率
diff --git a/src/analysis/deb_evaluation.py b/src/analysis/deb_evaluation.py
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..d4c8e441
--- /dev/null
+++ b/src/analysis/deb_evaluation.py
@@ -0,0 +1,319 @@
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import csv
+import json
+import math
+import statistics
+from dataclasses import dataclass
+from pathlib import Path
+from typing import Any, Iterable
+
+from src.analysis.settlement_rounding import apply_city_settlement
+
+DEB_RAW_VERSION = "deb_v1_raw"
+DEB_RECENT_BIAS_CORRECTED_VERSION = "deb_v1_recent_bias_corrected"
+DEB_BACKTEST_SCHEMA_VERSION = "deb_backtest_report.v1"
+
+
+def _sf(value: Any) -> float | None:
+    try:
+        if value is None or value == "":
+            return None
+        parsed = float(value)
+        return parsed if math.isfinite(parsed) else None
+    except (TypeError, ValueError):
+        return None
+
+
+def _round3(value: float | None) -> float | None:
+    return None if value is None else round(float(value), 3)
+
+
+def _normalise_record(row: dict[str, Any]) -> dict[str, Any] | None:
+    city = str(row.get("city") or "").strip().lower()
+    target_date = str(row.get("target_date") or row.get("date") or "").strip()
+    prediction = _sf(row.get("prediction", row.get("deb_prediction")))
+    actual = _sf(row.get("actual", row.get("actual_high")))
+    if not city or not target_date or prediction is None or actual is None:
+        return None
+    return {
+        "city": city,
+        "target_date": target_date,
+        "prediction": prediction,
+        "actual": actual,
+    }
+
+
+def evaluate_prediction_records(
+    records: Iterable[dict[str, Any]],
+    *,
+    version: str,
+) -> dict[str, Any]:
+    rows = [row for record in records if (row := _normalise_record(record))]
+    if not rows:
+        return {
+            "version": version,
+            "samples": 0,
+            "mae": None,
+            "rmse": None,
+            "bias": None,
+            "bucket_hit_rate": None,
+        }
+
+    signed_errors = [row["prediction"] - row["actual"] for row in rows]
+    abs_errors = [abs(error) for error in signed_errors]
+    sq_errors = [error * error for error in signed_errors]
+    bucket_hits = 0
+    bucket_total = 0
+    for row in rows:
+        try:
+            pred_bucket = apply_city_settlement(row["city"], row["prediction"])
+            actual_bucket = apply_city_settlement(row["city"], row["actual"])
+        except Exception:
+            continue
+        if pred_bucket is None or actual_bucket is None:
+            continue
+        bucket_total += 1
+        if pred_bucket == actual_bucket:
+            bucket_hits += 1
+
+    return {
+        "version": version,
+        "samples": len(rows),
+        "mae": _round3(statistics.mean(abs_errors)),
+        "rmse": _round3(math.sqrt(statistics.mean(sq_errors))),
+        "bias": _round3(statistics.mean(signed_errors)),
+        "bucket_hit_rate": (
+            _round3(bucket_hits / bucket_total) if bucket_total else None
+        ),
+    }
+
+
+@dataclass(frozen=True)
+class BiasCorrectionResult:
+    version: str
+    raw_prediction: float
+    corrected_prediction: float
+    bias_adjustment: float
+    samples: int
+
+    def to_dict(self) -> dict[str, Any]:
+        return {
+            "version": self.version,
+            "raw_prediction": self.raw_prediction,
+            "corrected_prediction": self.corrected_prediction,
+            "bias_adjustment": self.bias_adjustment,
+            "samples": self.samples,
+        }
+
+
+class RecentBiasCorrector:
+    def __init__(self, bias_by_city: dict[str, tuple[float, int]]) -> None:
+        self._bias_by_city = bias_by_city
+
+    def apply(self, city: str, raw_prediction: float) -> dict[str, Any]:
+        city_key = str(city or "").strip().lower()
+        raw = float(raw_prediction)
+        bias, samples = self._bias_by_city.get(city_key, (0.0, 0))
+        adjustment = round(bias, 1)
+        return BiasCorrectionResult(
+            version=DEB_RECENT_BIAS_CORRECTED_VERSION,
+            raw_prediction=round(raw, 1),
+            corrected_prediction=round(raw + adjustment, 1),
+            bias_adjustment=adjustment,
+            samples=samples,
+        ).to_dict()
+
+
+def build_recent_bias_corrector(
+    history: Iterable[dict[str, Any]],
+    *,
+    lookback_days: int = 30,
+    min_samples: int = 3,
+    shrinkage_samples: int = 5,
+    max_adjustment: float = 3.0,
+) -> RecentBiasCorrector:
+    by_city: dict[str, list[dict[str, Any]]] = {}
+    for record in history:
+        row = _normalise_record(record)
+        if row is None:
+            continue
+        by_city.setdefault(row["city"], []).append(row)
+
+    bias_by_city: dict[str, tuple[float, int]] = {}
+    for city, rows in by_city.items():
+        rows.sort(key=lambda row: row["target_date"], reverse=True)
+        recent = rows[: max(int(lookback_days or 0), 1)]
+        signed_actual_minus_prediction = [
+            row["actual"] - row["prediction"] for row in recent
+        ]
+        samples = len(signed_actual_minus_prediction)
+        if samples < min_samples:
+            continue
+        raw_bias = statistics.mean(signed_actual_minus_prediction)
+        shrink = min(1.0, samples / max(float(shrinkage_samples), 1.0))
+        adjusted = raw_bias * shrink
+        adjusted = max(-abs(max_adjustment), min(abs(max_adjustment), adjusted))
+        bias_by_city[city] = (adjusted, samples)
+
+    return RecentBiasCorrector(bias_by_city)
+
+
+def backtest_deb_versions(
+    history: Iterable[dict[str, Any]],
+    *,
+    train_lookback_days: int = 30,
+    min_train_samples: int = 2,
+) -> dict[str, Any]:
+    rows = [row for record in history if (row := _normalise_record(record))]
+    rows.sort(key=lambda row: (row["city"], row["target_date"]))
+
+    report_rows: list[dict[str, Any]] = []
+    raw_eval_rows: list[dict[str, Any]] = []
+    corrected_eval_rows: list[dict[str, Any]] = []
+
+    by_city: dict[str, list[dict[str, Any]]] = {}
+    for row in rows:
+        previous = by_city.setdefault(row["city"], [])
+        if len(previous) >= min_train_samples:
+            corrector = build_recent_bias_corrector(
+                previous,
+                lookback_days=train_lookback_days,
+                min_samples=min_train_samples,
+            )
+            corrected = corrector.apply(row["city"], row["prediction"])
+            raw_prediction = round(row["prediction"], 1)
+            corrected_prediction = corrected["corrected_prediction"]
+
+            raw_eval_rows.append(
+                {
+                    "city": row["city"],
+                    "target_date": row["target_date"],
+                    "prediction": raw_prediction,
+                    "actual": row["actual"],
+                }
+            )
+            corrected_eval_rows.append(
+                {
+                    "city": row["city"],
+                    "target_date": row["target_date"],
+                    "prediction": corrected_prediction,
+                    "actual": row["actual"],
+                }
+            )
+            report_rows.append(
+                {
+                    "city": row["city"],
+                    "target_date": row["target_date"],
+                    "actual": row["actual"],
+                    "versions": {
+                        DEB_RAW_VERSION: {
+                            "prediction": raw_prediction,
+                            "error": round(raw_prediction - row["actual"], 3),
+                        },
+                        DEB_RECENT_BIAS_CORRECTED_VERSION: {
+                            "prediction": corrected_prediction,
+                            "error": round(corrected_prediction - row["actual"], 3),
+                            "bias_adjustment": corrected["bias_adjustment"],
+                            "train_samples": corrected["samples"],
+                        },
+                    },
+                }
+            )
+        previous.append(row)
+
+    return {
+        "schema_version": DEB_BACKTEST_SCHEMA_VERSION,
+        "versions": {
+            DEB_RAW_VERSION: evaluate_prediction_records(
+                raw_eval_rows,
+                version=DEB_RAW_VERSION,
+            ),
+            DEB_RECENT_BIAS_CORRECTED_VERSION: evaluate_prediction_records(
+                corrected_eval_rows,
+                version=DEB_RECENT_BIAS_CORRECTED_VERSION,
+            ),
+        },
+        "rows": report_rows,
+    }
+
+
+def flatten_daily_records(
+    daily_records: dict[str, dict[str, dict[str, Any]]],
+) -> list[dict[str, Any]]:
+    rows: list[dict[str, Any]] = []
+    for city, by_date in (daily_records or {}).items():
+        if not isinstance(by_date, dict):
+            continue
+        for target_date, record in by_date.items():
+            if not isinstance(record, dict):
+                continue
+            rows.append(
+                {
+                    "city": city,
+                    "target_date": target_date,
+                    "deb_prediction": record.get("deb_prediction"),
+                    "actual_high": record.get("actual_high"),
+                }
+            )
+    return rows
+
+
+def write_backtest_report(
+    report: dict[str, Any],
+    *,
+    json_path: str | Path,
+    csv_path: str | Path | None = None,
+) -> None:
+    json_target = Path(json_path)
+    json_target.parent.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
+    json_target.write_text(
+        json.dumps(report, ensure_ascii=False, indent=2) + "\n",
+        encoding="utf-8",
+    )
+    if csv_path is None:
+        return
+
+    csv_target = Path(csv_path)
+    csv_target.parent.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
+    with csv_target.open("w", newline="", encoding="utf-8") as handle:
+        writer = csv.DictWriter(
+            handle,
+            fieldnames=[
+                "city",
+                "target_date",
+                "actual",
+                f"{DEB_RAW_VERSION}_prediction",
+                f"{DEB_RAW_VERSION}_error",
+                f"{DEB_RECENT_BIAS_CORRECTED_VERSION}_prediction",
+                f"{DEB_RECENT_BIAS_CORRECTED_VERSION}_error",
+                f"{DEB_RECENT_BIAS_CORRECTED_VERSION}_bias_adjustment",
+                f"{DEB_RECENT_BIAS_CORRECTED_VERSION}_train_samples",
+            ],
+        )
+        writer.writeheader()
+        for row in report.get("rows") or []:
+            versions = row.get("versions") or {}
+            raw = versions.get(DEB_RAW_VERSION) or {}
+            corrected = versions.get(DEB_RECENT_BIAS_CORRECTED_VERSION) or {}
+            writer.writerow(
+                {
+                    "city": row.get("city"),
+                    "target_date": row.get("target_date"),
+                    "actual": row.get("actual"),
+                    f"{DEB_RAW_VERSION}_prediction": raw.get("prediction"),
+                    f"{DEB_RAW_VERSION}_error": raw.get("error"),
+                    f"{DEB_RECENT_BIAS_CORRECTED_VERSION}_prediction": corrected.get(
+                        "prediction"
+                    ),
+                    f"{DEB_RECENT_BIAS_CORRECTED_VERSION}_error": corrected.get(
+                        "error"
+                    ),
+                    f"{DEB_RECENT_BIAS_CORRECTED_VERSION}_bias_adjustment": corrected.get(
+                        "bias_adjustment"
+                    ),
+                    f"{DEB_RECENT_BIAS_CORRECTED_VERSION}_train_samples": corrected.get(
+                        "train_samples"
+                    ),
+                }
+            )
diff --git a/src/analysis/trend_engine.py b/src/analysis/trend_engine.py
index 9f7f3a49..c048e8cb 100644
--- a/src/analysis/trend_engine.py
+++ b/src/analysis/trend_engine.py
@@ -11,6 +11,7 @@ from typing import List, Optional, Tuple, Dict, Any
 
 from src.analysis.deb_algorithm import (
     calculate_dynamic_weights,
+    calculate_deb_prediction,
     get_deb_accuracy,
     update_daily_record,
     _is_excluded_model_name,
@@ -313,22 +314,32 @@ def analyze_weather_trend(
 
     # === DEB ===
     deb_prediction = None
+    deb_raw_prediction = None
+    deb_version = None
+    deb_bias_adjustment = 0.0
+    deb_bias_samples = 0
     deb_weights = ""
     if city_name and current_forecasts:
-        blended_high, weight_info = calculate_dynamic_weights(
-            city_name, current_forecasts
+        deb_result = calculate_deb_prediction(
+            city_name,
+            current_forecasts,
+            raw_calculator=calculate_dynamic_weights,
         )
-        if blended_high is not None:
-            deb_prediction = blended_high
-            deb_weights = weight_info
+        if deb_result.get("prediction") is not None:
+            deb_prediction = deb_result.get("prediction")
+            deb_raw_prediction = deb_result.get("raw_prediction")
+            deb_version = deb_result.get("version")
+            deb_bias_adjustment = deb_result.get("bias_adjustment") or 0.0
+            deb_bias_samples = deb_result.get("bias_samples") or 0
+            deb_weights = deb_result.get("weights_info") or ""
             insights.insert(
                 0,
-                f"🧬 <b>DEB 融合预测</b>：<b>{blended_high}{temp_symbol}</b> ({weight_info})",
+                f"🧬 <b>DEB 融合预测</b>：<b>{deb_prediction}{temp_symbol}</b> ({deb_weights})",
             )
             ai_features.append(
-                f"🧬 DEB系统已通过历史偏差矫正算出期待点是: {blended_high}{temp_symbol}。"
+                f"🧬 DEB系统已通过历史偏差矫正算出期待点是: {deb_prediction}{temp_symbol}。"
             )
-        _deb_to_save = blended_high
+        _deb_to_save = deb_prediction
 
     # === METAR trend ===
     recent_temps = metar.get("recent_temps", [])
@@ -417,7 +428,7 @@ def analyze_weather_trend(
         # DEB blending uses the already-computed set of model forecasts
                 if ai_features and "DEB系统已通过历史偏差矫正算出期待点是" in ai_features[0]:
                     ai_features[0] = (
-                        f"🧬 DEB系统已通过历史偏差矫正算出期待点是: {blended_high}{temp_symbol}。"
+                        f"🧬 DEB系统已通过历史偏差矫正算出期待点是: {deb_prediction}{temp_symbol}。"
                     )
 
     if trend_direction == "stagnant":
@@ -825,6 +836,10 @@ def analyze_weather_trend(
         "peak_status": peak_status,
         "peak_hours": peak_hours,
         "deb_prediction": deb_prediction,
+        "deb_raw_prediction": deb_raw_prediction,
+        "deb_version": deb_version,
+        "deb_bias_adjustment": deb_bias_adjustment,
+        "deb_bias_samples": deb_bias_samples,
         "deb_weights": deb_weights,
         "current_forecasts": current_forecasts,
         "ens_data": ens_data,
diff --git a/tests/test_deb_evaluation_upgrade.py b/tests/test_deb_evaluation_upgrade.py
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..77a99090
--- /dev/null
+++ b/tests/test_deb_evaluation_upgrade.py
@@ -0,0 +1,121 @@
+import json
+import subprocess
+import sys
+from pathlib import Path
+
+from src.analysis.deb_evaluation import (
+    DEB_RAW_VERSION,
+    DEB_RECENT_BIAS_CORRECTED_VERSION,
+    backtest_deb_versions,
+    build_recent_bias_corrector,
+    evaluate_prediction_records,
+    write_backtest_report,
+)
+from src.database.runtime_state import DailyRecordRepository, RuntimeStateDB
+
+
+def test_deb_evaluation_reports_mae_rmse_bias_and_bucket_hits():
+    records = [
+        {"city": "ankara", "target_date": "2026-05-20", "prediction": 20.0, "actual": 21.0},
+        {"city": "ankara", "target_date": "2026-05-21", "prediction": 22.0, "actual": 21.0},
+        {"city": "ankara", "target_date": "2026-05-22", "prediction": 23.0, "actual": 23.0},
+    ]
+
+    metrics = evaluate_prediction_records(records, version=DEB_RAW_VERSION)
+
+    assert metrics["version"] == DEB_RAW_VERSION
+    assert metrics["samples"] == 3
+    assert metrics["mae"] == 0.667
+    assert metrics["rmse"] == 0.816
+    assert metrics["bias"] == 0.0
+    assert metrics["bucket_hit_rate"] == 0.333
+
+
+def test_recent_bias_corrector_uses_signed_error_without_rewriting_raw_deb():
+    history = [
+        {"city": "ankara", "target_date": "2026-05-20", "deb_prediction": 20.0, "actual_high": 22.0},
+        {"city": "ankara", "target_date": "2026-05-21", "deb_prediction": 21.0, "actual_high": 23.0},
+        {"city": "ankara", "target_date": "2026-05-22", "deb_prediction": 24.0, "actual_high": 25.0},
+    ]
+
+    corrector = build_recent_bias_corrector(history, lookback_days=30, min_samples=2)
+    corrected = corrector.apply("ankara", raw_prediction=24.0)
+
+    assert corrected["version"] == DEB_RECENT_BIAS_CORRECTED_VERSION
+    assert corrected["raw_prediction"] == 24.0
+    assert corrected["corrected_prediction"] > corrected["raw_prediction"]
+    assert corrected["bias_adjustment"] == 1.0
+    assert corrected["samples"] == 3
+
+
+def test_backtest_deb_versions_compares_raw_and_bias_corrected_versions():
+    history = [
+        {"city": "ankara", "target_date": "2026-05-20", "deb_prediction": 20.0, "actual_high": 22.0},
+        {"city": "ankara", "target_date": "2026-05-21", "deb_prediction": 21.0, "actual_high": 23.0},
+        {"city": "ankara", "target_date": "2026-05-22", "deb_prediction": 24.0, "actual_high": 25.0},
+        {"city": "ankara", "target_date": "2026-05-23", "deb_prediction": 24.0, "actual_high": 26.0},
+    ]
+
+    report = backtest_deb_versions(history, train_lookback_days=30)
+
+    assert report["schema_version"] == "deb_backtest_report.v1"
+    assert report["versions"][DEB_RAW_VERSION]["samples"] == 2
+    assert report["versions"][DEB_RECENT_BIAS_CORRECTED_VERSION]["samples"] == 2
+    assert (
+        report["versions"][DEB_RECENT_BIAS_CORRECTED_VERSION]["mae"]
+        < report["versions"][DEB_RAW_VERSION]["mae"]
+    )
+    assert report["rows"][0]["versions"][DEB_RAW_VERSION]["prediction"] == 24.0
+    assert report["rows"][0]["versions"][DEB_RECENT_BIAS_CORRECTED_VERSION]["prediction"] == 24.8
+
+
+def test_write_backtest_report_persists_versioned_json_and_csv(tmp_path):
+    history = [
+        {"city": "ankara", "target_date": "2026-05-20", "deb_prediction": 20.0, "actual_high": 22.0},
+        {"city": "ankara", "target_date": "2026-05-21", "deb_prediction": 21.0, "actual_high": 23.0},
+        {"city": "ankara", "target_date": "2026-05-22", "deb_prediction": 24.0, "actual_high": 25.0},
+    ]
+    report = backtest_deb_versions(history)
+    json_path = tmp_path / "deb-backtest.json"
+    csv_path = tmp_path / "deb-backtest.csv"
+
+    write_backtest_report(report, json_path=json_path, csv_path=csv_path)
+
+    assert json_path.read_text(encoding="utf-8").startswith("{\n  \"schema_version\": \"deb_backtest_report.v1\"")
+    csv_text = csv_path.read_text(encoding="utf-8")
+    assert "deb_v1_raw_prediction" in csv_text
+    assert "deb_v1_recent_bias_corrected_prediction" in csv_text
+
+
+def test_backtest_deb_versions_cli_reads_sqlite_and_writes_outputs(tmp_path):
+    db_path = tmp_path / "polyweather.db"
+    db = RuntimeStateDB(str(db_path))
+    repo = DailyRecordRepository(db)
+    repo.upsert_record("ankara", "2026-05-20", {"deb_prediction": 20.0, "actual_high": 22.0})
+    repo.upsert_record("ankara", "2026-05-21", {"deb_prediction": 21.0, "actual_high": 23.0})
+    repo.upsert_record("ankara", "2026-05-22", {"deb_prediction": 24.0, "actual_high": 25.0})
+    json_path = tmp_path / "report.json"
+    csv_path = tmp_path / "report.csv"
+
+    result = subprocess.run(
+        [
+            sys.executable,
+            str(Path("scripts") / "backtest_deb_versions.py"),
+            "--db",
+            str(db_path),
+            "--output-json",
+            str(json_path),
+            "--output-csv",
+            str(csv_path),
+        ],
+        cwd=Path(__file__).resolve().parents[1],
+        text=True,
+        capture_output=True,
+        check=False,
+    )
+
+    assert result.returncode == 0, result.stderr
+    payload = json.loads(json_path.read_text(encoding="utf-8"))
+    assert payload["schema_version"] == "deb_backtest_report.v1"
+    assert payload["versions"][DEB_RAW_VERSION]["samples"] == 1
+    assert csv_path.exists()
diff --git a/tests/test_deb_model_family.py b/tests/test_deb_model_family.py
index e420a465..b372678b 100644
--- a/tests/test_deb_model_family.py
+++ b/tests/test_deb_model_family.py
@@ -1,5 +1,6 @@
 from src.analysis.deb_algorithm import (
     _collapse_forecasts_for_deb,
+    calculate_deb_prediction,
     calculate_dynamic_weights,
 )
 
@@ -91,6 +92,42 @@ def test_deb_weighted_path_uses_deduped_family_values(monkeypatch):
     assert "家族去重" in info
 
 
+def test_calculate_deb_prediction_keeps_raw_and_adds_versioned_bias_correction(monkeypatch):
+    monkeypatch.setattr(
+        "src.analysis.deb_algorithm.load_history",
+        lambda _: {
+            "ankara": {
+                "2026-04-14": {
+                    "actual_high": 22.0,
+                    "deb_prediction": 20.0,
+                    "forecasts": {"ECMWF": 20.0, "GFS": 20.0},
+                },
+                "2026-04-15": {
+                    "actual_high": 23.0,
+                    "deb_prediction": 21.0,
+                    "forecasts": {"ECMWF": 21.0, "GFS": 21.0},
+                },
+                "2026-04-16": {
+                    "actual_high": 25.0,
+                    "deb_prediction": 24.0,
+                    "forecasts": {"ECMWF": 24.0, "GFS": 24.0},
+                },
+            }
+        },
+    )
+
+    result = calculate_deb_prediction(
+        "ankara",
+        {"ECMWF": 24.0, "GFS": 24.0},
+    )
+
+    assert result["raw_prediction"] == 24.0
+    assert result["prediction"] == 25.0
+    assert result["version"] == "deb_v1_recent_bias_corrected"
+    assert result["bias_adjustment"] == 1.0
+    assert result["bias_samples"] == 3
+
+
 def test_compute_hourly_model_errors_basic():
     from src.analysis.deb_algorithm import compute_hourly_model_errors
 
diff --git a/web/analysis_service.py b/web/analysis_service.py
index 14280b2e..1de79c5e 100644
--- a/web/analysis_service.py
+++ b/web/analysis_service.py
@@ -24,7 +24,7 @@ from web.core import (
     _sf,
     _weather,
 )
-from src.analysis.deb_algorithm import calculate_dynamic_weights
+from src.analysis.deb_algorithm import calculate_deb_prediction
 from src.analysis.settlement_rounding import apply_city_settlement
 from src.data_collection.country_networks import build_country_network_snapshot
 from src.data_collection.city_registry import ALIASES, CITY_REGISTRY
@@ -1082,11 +1082,18 @@ def _analyze(
 
     # ── 6. DEB fusion ──
     deb_val, deb_weights = None, ""
+    deb_raw_val, deb_version = None, None
+    deb_bias_adjustment, deb_bias_samples = 0.0, 0
+    deb_intraday_adjustment = 0.0
     if current_forecasts:
-        blended, winfo = calculate_dynamic_weights(city, current_forecasts)
-        if blended is not None:
-            deb_val = blended
-            deb_weights = winfo
+        deb_result = calculate_deb_prediction(city, current_forecasts)
+        if deb_result.get("prediction") is not None:
+            deb_val = deb_result.get("prediction")
+            deb_raw_val = deb_result.get("raw_prediction")
+            deb_version = deb_result.get("version")
+            deb_bias_adjustment = deb_result.get("bias_adjustment") or 0.0
+            deb_bias_samples = deb_result.get("bias_samples") or 0
+            deb_weights = deb_result.get("weights_info") or ""
 
     # ── 7. Ensemble stats ──
     ens_data = {
@@ -1230,6 +1237,10 @@ def _analyze(
         # Use shared DEB if not already set
         if deb_val is None and sd.get("deb_prediction") is not None:
             deb_val = sd["deb_prediction"]
+            deb_raw_val = sd.get("deb_raw_prediction") or deb_val
+            deb_version = sd.get("deb_version")
+            deb_bias_adjustment = sd.get("deb_bias_adjustment") or 0.0
+            deb_bias_samples = sd.get("deb_bias_samples") or 0
             deb_weights = sd.get("deb_weights", "")
 
     except Exception as e:
@@ -1288,10 +1299,11 @@ def _analyze(
             max_correction_clamped = max(-max_correction, min(max_correction, max_so_far_excess * max(0.3, weight)))
 
             blended_correction = hourly_correction * 0.6 + max_correction_clamped * 0.4
+            deb_intraday_adjustment = round(blended_correction, 1)
             deb_val = round(deb_val + blended_correction, 1)
             if mu is not None:
                 mu = round(mu + blended_correction, 1)
-            deb_weights = f"{deb_weights or 'DEB'} + intraday_bias({blended_correction:+.1f})"
+            deb_weights = f"{deb_weights or 'DEB'} + intraday_bias({deb_intraday_adjustment:+.1f})"
 
     # ── 12b. Next 48h hourly block for future-date analysis modal ──
     next_48h_hourly = {
@@ -1490,6 +1502,10 @@ def _analyze(
         if i == 0:
             day_m = current_forecasts.copy()
             d_val, d_winfo = deb_val, deb_weights
+            d_raw_val = deb_raw_val
+            d_version = deb_version
+            d_bias_adjustment = deb_bias_adjustment
+            d_bias_samples = deb_bias_samples
         else:
             day_m = mm_daily_raw.get(d_str, {}).copy()
             if i < len(maxtemps) and maxtemps[i] is not None:
@@ -1505,14 +1521,20 @@ def _analyze(
             }
             
             d_val, d_winfo = None, ""
+            d_raw_val, d_version = None, None
+            d_bias_adjustment, d_bias_samples = 0.0, 0
             d_probs = []
             d_probs_all = []
             if day_m:
                 try:
-                    blended, winfo = calculate_dynamic_weights(city, day_m)
-                    if blended is not None:
-                        d_val = blended
-                        d_winfo = winfo
+                    deb_result = calculate_deb_prediction(city, day_m)
+                    if deb_result.get("prediction") is not None:
+                        d_val = deb_result.get("prediction")
+                        d_raw_val = deb_result.get("raw_prediction")
+                        d_version = deb_result.get("version")
+                        d_bias_adjustment = deb_result.get("bias_adjustment") or 0.0
+                        d_bias_samples = deb_result.get("bias_samples") or 0
+                        d_winfo = deb_result.get("weights_info") or ""
                         
                         # Calculate future probability based on model divergence
                         m_vals = [v for v in day_m.values() if v is not None]
@@ -1532,7 +1554,14 @@ def _analyze(
         if day_m:
             multi_model_daily[d_str] = {
                 "models": day_m,
-                "deb": {"prediction": d_val, "weights_info": d_winfo},
+                "deb": {
+                    "prediction": d_val,
+                    "raw_prediction": d_raw_val,
+                    "version": d_version,
+                    "weights_info": d_winfo,
+                    "bias_adjustment": d_bias_adjustment,
+                    "bias_samples": d_bias_samples,
+                },
                 "probabilities": d_probs if i > 0 else probabilities, # Use today's real prob for today
                 "probabilities_all": d_probs_all if i > 0 else probabilities_all,
             }
@@ -1689,7 +1718,15 @@ def _analyze(
             "forecasts": {k: v for k, v in current_forecasts.items() if v is not None},
         },
         "multi_model_daily": multi_model_daily,
-        "deb": {"prediction": deb_val, "weights_info": deb_weights},
+        "deb": {
+            "prediction": deb_val,
+            "raw_prediction": deb_raw_val,
+            "version": deb_version,
+            "weights_info": deb_weights,
+            "bias_adjustment": deb_bias_adjustment,
+            "bias_samples": deb_bias_samples,
+            "intraday_adjustment": deb_intraday_adjustment,
+        },
         "deviation_monitor": deviation_monitor,
         "ensemble": ens_data,
         "probabilities": {
@@ -1998,10 +2035,18 @@ def _analyze_summary(city: str, force_refresh: bool = False) -> Dict[str, Any]:
     }
 
     deb_val = None
+    deb_raw_val = None
+    deb_version = None
+    deb_bias_adjustment = 0.0
+    deb_bias_samples = 0
     if current_forecasts:
-        blended, _weights_info = calculate_dynamic_weights(city, current_forecasts)
-        if blended is not None:
-            deb_val = blended
+        deb_result = calculate_deb_prediction(city, current_forecasts)
+        if deb_result.get("prediction") is not None:
+            deb_val = deb_result.get("prediction")
+            deb_raw_val = deb_result.get("raw_prediction")
+            deb_version = deb_result.get("version")
+            deb_bias_adjustment = deb_result.get("bias_adjustment") or 0.0
+            deb_bias_samples = deb_result.get("bias_samples") or 0
     if deb_val is None:
         deb_val = om_today
 
@@ -2071,7 +2116,13 @@ def _analyze_summary(city: str, force_refresh: bool = False) -> Dict[str, Any]:
             "obs_age_min": obs_age_min,
             "observation_status": "live" if cur_temp is not None else "missing",
         },
-        "deb": {"prediction": _sf(deb_val)},
+        "deb": {
+            "prediction": _sf(deb_val),
+            "raw_prediction": _sf(deb_raw_val),
+            "version": deb_version,
+            "bias_adjustment": deb_bias_adjustment,
+            "bias_samples": deb_bias_samples,
+        },
         "deviation_monitor": deviation_monitor or {},
         "updated_at": datetime.now(timezone.utc).isoformat(),
     }