启用概率校准和 WebSocket 报价配置

frontend/components/dashboard/Dashboard.module.css

@@ -1075,6 +1075,72 @@
   border: 1px solid rgba(251, 113, 133, 0.26);
 }
 
+.root :global(.prob-price-card) {
+  display: grid;
+  gap: 8px;
+  padding: 10px;
+  border: 1px solid rgba(34, 211, 238, 0.16);
+  border-radius: 8px;
+  background: rgba(8, 20, 32, 0.52);
+}
+
+.root :global(.prob-price-head) {
+  display: flex;
+  align-items: center;
+  justify-content: space-between;
+  gap: 10px;
+}
+
+.root :global(.prob-price-head span) {
+  color: var(--cyan);
+  font-size: 11px;
+  font-weight: 800;
+  text-transform: uppercase;
+  letter-spacing: 0.04em;
+}
+
+.root :global(.prob-price-head strong) {
+  color: var(--text-primary);
+  font-size: 13px;
+  font-weight: 800;
+}
+
+.root :global(.prob-price-grid) {
+  display: grid;
+  grid-template-columns: repeat(4, minmax(0, 1fr));
+  gap: 8px;
+}
+
+.root :global(.prob-price-grid > div) {
+  display: grid;
+  gap: 3px;
+  min-width: 0;
+  padding: 8px;
+  border: 1px solid rgba(148, 163, 184, 0.12);
+  border-radius: 8px;
+  background: rgba(15, 23, 42, 0.45);
+}
+
+.root :global(.prob-price-grid span),
+.root :global(.prob-price-grid em),
+.root :global(.prob-price-card p) {
+  color: var(--text-muted);
+  font-size: 11px;
+  font-style: normal;
+  line-height: 1.35;
+}
+
+.root :global(.prob-price-grid strong) {
+  color: var(--text-primary);
+  font-size: 13px;
+  font-weight: 800;
+  font-variant-numeric: tabular-nums;
+}
+
+.root :global(.prob-price-card p) {
+  margin: 0;
+}
+
 .root :global(.prob-model-hint) {
   display: flex;
   align-items: center;
@@ -2466,6 +2532,15 @@
   .root :global(.marker-name) {
     font-size: 11px;
   }
+
+  .root :global(.prob-price-grid) {
+    grid-template-columns: repeat(2, minmax(0, 1fr));
+  }
+
+  .root :global(.prob-price-head) {
+    align-items: flex-start;
+    flex-direction: column;
+  }
 }
 
 /* ── History Modal ── */

frontend/components/dashboard/PanelSections.tsx

@@ -278,6 +278,29 @@ function normalizeMarketProbability(value?: number | null) {
   return Math.max(0, Math.min(1, numeric));
 }
 
+function normalizeSignedProbability(value?: number | null) {
+  if (value == null) return null;
+  const numeric = Number(value);
+  if (!Number.isFinite(numeric)) return null;
+  if (Math.abs(numeric) > 1) return numeric / 100;
+  return numeric;
+}
+
+function formatSignedPercent(value?: number | null, digits = 1) {
+  const normalized = normalizeSignedProbability(value);
+  if (normalized == null) return "--";
+  const percent = normalized * 100;
+  const sign = percent > 0 ? "+" : "";
+  return `${sign}${percent.toFixed(digits)}%`;
+}
+
+function formatKellyFraction(value?: number | null) {
+  const normalized = normalizeSignedProbability(value);
+  if (normalized == null) return "--";
+  if (normalized <= 0) return "0%";
+  return `${(normalized * 100).toFixed(1)}%`;
+}
+
 function getMarketTopBuckets(scan?: MarketScan | null) {
   const buckets = Array.isArray(scan?.top_buckets) ? scan.top_buckets : [];
   if (!buckets.length) return [];
@@ -657,6 +680,38 @@ export function ProbabilityDistribution({
   const topProbabilityLabel = topProbability
     ? topProbability.label || `${topProbability.value}${detail.temp_symbol}`
     : null;
+  const priceAnalysis = marketScan?.price_analysis;
+  const yesPriceView = priceAnalysis?.yes;
+  const noPriceView = priceAnalysis?.no;
+  const preferredPriceView =
+    priceAnalysis?.best_side === "no" ? noPriceView : yesPriceView;
+  const preferredSideLabel =
+    priceAnalysis?.best_side === "no"
+      ? locale === "en-US"
+        ? "NO"
+        : "NO"
+      : locale === "en-US"
+        ? "YES"
+        : "YES";
+  const hasPriceAnalysis =
+    Boolean(priceAnalysis?.available) &&
+    (yesPriceView?.ask != null || noPriceView?.ask != null);
+  const lockEdge = normalizeSignedProbability(priceAnalysis?.lock?.edge);
+  const lockAvailable = Boolean(priceAnalysis?.lock?.available && lockEdge != null);
+  const quoteSource =
+    marketScan?.yes_token?.quote_source ||
+    marketScan?.no_token?.quote_source ||
+    null;
+  const quoteAgeMs =
+    marketScan?.yes_token?.quote_age_ms ?? marketScan?.no_token?.quote_age_ms;
+  const quoteSourceLabel =
+    quoteSource === "polymarket_ws"
+      ? locale === "en-US"
+        ? `WS live${quoteAgeMs != null ? ` · ${Math.max(0, Math.round(Number(quoteAgeMs) / 1000))}s` : ""}`
+        : `WS 实时${quoteAgeMs != null ? ` · ${Math.max(0, Math.round(Number(quoteAgeMs) / 1000))}秒` : ""}`
+      : locale === "en-US"
+        ? "CLOB fallback"
+        : "CLOB 兜底";
 
   return (
     <section className="prob-section">
@@ -702,6 +757,63 @@ export function ProbabilityDistribution({
                 : `市场仅作参考：该温度桶 ${marketYesText}`}
           </div>
         )}
+        {hasPriceAnalysis && (
+          <div className="prob-price-card">
+            <div className="prob-price-head">
+              <span>
+                {locale === "en-US" ? "Price reference" : "价格参考"}
+              </span>
+              <strong>
+                {preferredPriceView?.edge != null
+                  ? locale === "en-US"
+                    ? `${preferredSideLabel} edge ${formatSignedPercent(preferredPriceView.edge)}`
+                    : `${preferredSideLabel} 边际 ${formatSignedPercent(preferredPriceView.edge)}`
+                  : locale === "en-US"
+                    ? "Waiting for executable quote"
+                    : "等待可执行报价"}
+              </strong>
+            </div>
+            <div className="prob-price-grid">
+              <div>
+                <span>YES ask</span>
+                <strong>{toPriceCents(yesPriceView?.ask) || "--"}</strong>
+                <em>{formatSignedPercent(yesPriceView?.edge)}</em>
+              </div>
+              <div>
+                <span>NO ask</span>
+                <strong>{toPriceCents(noPriceView?.ask) || "--"}</strong>
+                <em>{formatSignedPercent(noPriceView?.edge)}</em>
+              </div>
+              <div>
+                <span>{locale === "en-US" ? "1/4 Kelly" : "1/4 Kelly"}</span>
+                <strong>{formatKellyFraction(preferredPriceView?.quarter_kelly)}</strong>
+                <em>{locale === "en-US" ? "cap required" : "需限额"}</em>
+              </div>
+              <div>
+                <span>{locale === "en-US" ? "Lock" : "锁价"}</span>
+                <strong>
+                  {lockAvailable
+                    ? formatSignedPercent(lockEdge)
+                    : locale === "en-US"
+                      ? "None"
+                      : "无"}
+                </strong>
+                <em>
+                  {priceAnalysis?.lock?.ask_sum != null
+                    ? locale === "en-US"
+                      ? `sum ${toPriceCents(priceAnalysis.lock.ask_sum)}`
+                      : `合计 ${toPriceCents(priceAnalysis.lock.ask_sum)}`
+                    : "--"}
+                </em>
+              </div>
+            </div>
+            <p>
+              {locale === "en-US"
+                ? `Read-only sizing reference from executable quotes; it does not place orders. Source: ${quoteSourceLabel}.`
+                : `基于可执行盘口的只读仓位参考；系统不会下单。来源：${quoteSourceLabel}。`}
+            </p>
+          </div>
+        )}
         {modelVoteHint && (
           <div className="prob-model-hint">
             <span>

frontend/lib/dashboard-types.ts

@@ -289,6 +289,8 @@ export interface MarketToken {
   sell_price?: number | null;
   midpoint?: number | null;
   last_trade_price?: number | null;
+  quote_source?: string | null;
+  quote_age_ms?: number | null;
 }
 
 export interface MarketPrimary {
@@ -314,11 +316,42 @@ export interface MarketTopBucket {
   yes_sell?: number | null;
   no_buy?: number | null;
   no_sell?: number | null;
+  quote_source?: string | null;
+  quote_age_ms?: number | null;
   slug?: string | null;
   question?: string | null;
   is_primary?: boolean;
 }
 
+export interface MarketPriceSide {
+  side?: "yes" | "no" | string | null;
+  model_probability?: number | null;
+  ask?: number | null;
+  bid?: number | null;
+  edge?: number | null;
+  edge_percent?: number | null;
+  kelly_fraction?: number | null;
+  quarter_kelly?: number | null;
+}
+
+export interface MarketPriceAnalysis {
+  available?: boolean;
+  source?: string | null;
+  model_probability?: number | null;
+  yes?: MarketPriceSide | null;
+  no?: MarketPriceSide | null;
+  best_side?: "yes" | "no" | string | null;
+  lock?: {
+    available?: boolean;
+    ask_sum?: number | null;
+    edge?: number | null;
+  } | null;
+  sell_side?: {
+    bid_sum?: number | null;
+    edge?: number | null;
+  } | null;
+}
+
 export interface MarketScan {
   available?: boolean;
   reason?: string | null;
@@ -343,6 +376,7 @@ export interface MarketScan {
   last_trade_price?: number | null;
   liquidity?: number | null;
   volume?: number | null;
+  price_analysis?: MarketPriceAnalysis | null;
   sparkline?: number[];
   top_buckets?: MarketTopBucket[] | null;
   recent_trades?: unknown[];