Add ops dashboards for training data and model coverage
This commit is contained in:
2569718930@qq.com
@@ -1,20 +1,20 @@
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{
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"version": "emos-20260402151301",
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"trained_at": "2026-04-02T15:13:01.073253+00:00",
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"version": "emos-20260402162744",
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"trained_at": "2026-04-02T16:27:44.114836+00:00",
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"global": {
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"mu": {
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"intercept": 1.52725527,
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"raw_mu_coef": 2.96318139,
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"deb_coef": -1.54490032,
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"ens_median_coef": -0.71820793,
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"max_so_far_gap_coef": 10.22802132
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"intercept": 1.54512641,
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"raw_mu_coef": 2.96105052,
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"deb_coef": -1.53260815,
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"ens_median_coef": -0.72849343,
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"max_so_far_gap_coef": 9.52557689
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},
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"sigma": {
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"intercept": 0.67227661,
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"raw_sigma_coef": 0.69444674,
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"spread_coef": 0.09134583,
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"peak_flag_coef": -0.58201761,
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"max_so_far_gap_coef": -0.81482466
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"intercept": 0.67432479,
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"raw_sigma_coef": 0.6936692,
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"spread_coef": 0.08877484,
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"peak_flag_coef": -0.58374835,
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"max_so_far_gap_coef": -0.8172477
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}
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},
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"sigma_constraints": {
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@@ -30,60 +30,60 @@
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},
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"blending": {
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"alpha_mu": 0.0,
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"alpha_sigma": 0.45
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"alpha_sigma": 0.05
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},
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"cities": {
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"ankara": {
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"samples": 3,
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"mu_bias": 1.283918,
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"sigma_scale": 1.484056,
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"mu_bias": 1.271844,
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"sigma_scale": 1.477644,
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"confidence": 0.375
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},
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"hong kong": {
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"samples": 4,
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"mu_bias": 1.329042,
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"sigma_scale": 1.045379,
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"mu_bias": 1.32008,
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"sigma_scale": 1.04023,
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"confidence": 0.5
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},
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"milan": {
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"samples": 3,
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"mu_bias": -3.932299,
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"mu_bias": -3.935178,
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"sigma_scale": 2.0,
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"confidence": 0.375
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},
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"shanghai": {
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"samples": 3,
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"mu_bias": 1.827618,
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"mu_bias": 1.810495,
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"sigma_scale": 2.0,
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"confidence": 0.375
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},
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"taipei": {
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"samples": 3,
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"mu_bias": 3.387896,
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"mu_bias": 3.577828,
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"sigma_scale": 2.0,
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"confidence": 0.375
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},
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"warsaw": {
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"samples": 3,
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"mu_bias": -0.614031,
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"sigma_scale": 1.252706,
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"mu_bias": -0.625333,
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"sigma_scale": 1.25968,
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"confidence": 0.375
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}
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},
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"metrics": {
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"sample_count": 54,
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"mean_crps": 3.78558,
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"legacy_mean_crps": 4.326547,
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"legacy_mean_mae": 4.528889,
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"legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 0.518519,
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"legacy_bucket_brier": 0.83496,
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"selected_mean_crps": 4.239815,
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"selected_mean_mae": 4.528889,
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"selected_bucket_hit_rate": 0.537037,
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"selected_bucket_brier": 0.853485,
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"selected_score": 6.027262,
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"legacy_score": 6.127879,
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"filled_actual_from_history": 2,
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"mean_crps": 3.792563,
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"legacy_mean_crps": 4.308029,
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"legacy_mean_mae": 4.51037,
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"legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 0.537037,
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"legacy_bucket_brier": 0.833294,
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"selected_mean_crps": 4.249828,
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"selected_mean_mae": 4.51037,
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"selected_bucket_hit_rate": 0.555556,
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"selected_bucket_brier": 0.831872,
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"selected_score": 5.991436,
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"legacy_score": 6.078481,
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"filled_actual_from_history": 0,
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"settlement_history_city_count": 30
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},
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"source": "artifacts\\probability_calibration\\default.json"
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@@ -3,17 +3,17 @@
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"sample_count": 54,
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"filled_actual_from_history": 2,
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"legacy": {
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"mean_crps": 4.287017,
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"mean_mae": 4.488148,
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"mean_crps": 4.300621,
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"mean_mae": 4.502963,
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"bucket_hit_rate": 0.537037
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},
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"emos": {
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"mean_crps": 4.201116,
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"mean_mae": 4.488148,
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"mean_crps": 4.213889,
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"mean_mae": 4.502963,
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"bucket_hit_rate": 0.537037
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},
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"delta": {
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"crps": -0.085901,
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"crps": -0.086732,
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"mae": 0.0,
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"bucket_hit_rate": 0.0
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}
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@@ -183,12 +183,12 @@
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},
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"shenzhen": {
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"samples": 1,
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"legacy_mean_crps": 0.063696,
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"emos_mean_crps": 0.073016,
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"legacy_mean_mae": 0.1,
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"emos_mean_mae": 0.1,
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"legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 1.0,
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"emos_bucket_hit_rate": 1.0
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"legacy_mean_crps": 0.798351,
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"emos_mean_crps": 0.762787,
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"legacy_mean_mae": 0.9,
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"emos_mean_mae": 0.9,
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"legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 0.0,
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"emos_bucket_hit_rate": 0.0
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},
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"singapore": {
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"samples": 2,
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@@ -205,8 +205,8 @@
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"emos_mean_crps": 0.472738,
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"legacy_mean_mae": 0.1,
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"emos_mean_mae": 0.1,
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"legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 0.666667,
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"emos_bucket_hit_rate": 0.666667
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"legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 1.0,
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"emos_bucket_hit_rate": 1.0
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},
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"tel aviv": {
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"samples": 2,
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@@ -17,55 +17,57 @@
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"max_delta_bucket_brier_observe": 0.15
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},
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"evaluation": {
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"sample_count": 105,
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"delta_crps": -0.093663,
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"sample_count": 54,
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"delta_crps": -0.086732,
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"delta_mae": 0.0,
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"delta_bucket_hit_rate": 0.0
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},
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"shadow": {
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"sample_count": 103,
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"delta_mae": 0.012708,
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"delta_bucket_hit_rate": 0.009709,
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"delta_bucket_brier": 0.293835
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"sample_count": 48,
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"delta_mae": 0.0,
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"delta_bucket_hit_rate": 0.041666,
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"delta_bucket_brier": 0.123252
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},
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"blocking_reasons": [
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"shadow bucket brier 退化超限：delta=0.293835"
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"离线评估样本不足：54 < 80",
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"shadow 样本不足：48 < 50",
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"shadow bucket brier 退化超限：delta=0.123252"
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],
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"worst_shadow_regressions": [
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{
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"city": "dallas",
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"samples": 4,
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"delta_mae": 0.114807,
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"samples": 1,
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"delta_mae": 0.0,
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"delta_bucket_hit_rate": 0.0,
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"delta_bucket_brier": 0.778678
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"delta_bucket_brier": 0.792585
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},
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{
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"city": "chicago",
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"samples": 4,
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"delta_mae": 0.075265,
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"samples": 1,
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"delta_mae": 0.0,
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"delta_bucket_hit_rate": 0.0,
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"delta_bucket_brier": 0.746156
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"delta_bucket_brier": 0.791878
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},
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{
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"city": "seattle",
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"samples": 4,
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"delta_mae": 0.11262,
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"samples": 1,
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"delta_mae": 0.0,
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"delta_bucket_hit_rate": 0.0,
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"delta_bucket_brier": 0.692003
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"delta_bucket_brier": 0.61609
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},
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{
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"city": "atlanta",
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"samples": 4,
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"delta_mae": 0.293028,
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"delta_bucket_hit_rate": -0.25,
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"delta_bucket_brier": 0.601425
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"city": "wellington",
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"samples": 2,
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"delta_mae": 0.0,
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"delta_bucket_hit_rate": 0.0,
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"delta_bucket_brier": 0.509203
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},
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{
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"city": "miami",
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"samples": 4,
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"delta_mae": 0.241559,
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"delta_bucket_hit_rate": -0.5,
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"delta_bucket_brier": 0.478245
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"city": "tel aviv",
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"samples": 2,
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"delta_mae": 0.0,
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"delta_bucket_hit_rate": 0.0,
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"delta_bucket_brier": 0.439879
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}
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]
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}
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@@ -1,16 +1,16 @@
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{
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"generated_at": "2026-04-02T15:13:02.010825Z",
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"generated_at": "2026-04-02T16:23:24.376528Z",
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"summary": {
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"samples": 48,
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"legacy_mean_mae": 3.04125,
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"shadow_mean_mae": 3.04125,
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"legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 0.479167,
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"shadow_bucket_hit_rate": 0.520833,
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"legacy_bucket_brier": 0.688077,
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"shadow_bucket_brier": 0.811329,
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"legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 0.5,
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"shadow_bucket_hit_rate": 0.5,
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"legacy_bucket_brier": 0.68666,
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"shadow_bucket_brier": 0.814079,
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"delta_mae": 0.0,
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"delta_bucket_hit_rate": 0.041666,
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"delta_bucket_brier": 0.123252
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"delta_bucket_hit_rate": 0.0,
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"delta_bucket_brier": 0.127419
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},
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"by_city": {
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"ankara": {
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@@ -245,13 +245,13 @@
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"samples": 3,
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"legacy_mean_mae": 0.1,
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"shadow_mean_mae": 0.1,
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"legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 0.666667,
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"shadow_bucket_hit_rate": 0.666667,
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"legacy_bucket_brier": 0.217927,
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"shadow_bucket_brier": 0.640998,
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"legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 1.0,
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"shadow_bucket_hit_rate": 0.333333,
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"legacy_bucket_brier": 0.195261,
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"shadow_bucket_brier": 0.684998,
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"delta_mae": 0.0,
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||||
"delta_bucket_hit_rate": 0.0,
|
||||
"delta_bucket_brier": 0.423071
|
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"delta_bucket_hit_rate": -0.666667,
|
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"delta_bucket_brier": 0.489737
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},
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"tel aviv": {
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"samples": 2,
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@@ -343,13 +343,13 @@
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"samples": 19,
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"legacy_mean_mae": 4.299474,
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"shadow_mean_mae": 4.299474,
|
||||
"legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 0.315789,
|
||||
"shadow_bucket_hit_rate": 0.473684,
|
||||
"legacy_bucket_brier": 0.85177,
|
||||
"shadow_bucket_brier": 0.928731,
|
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"legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 0.368421,
|
||||
"shadow_bucket_hit_rate": 0.421053,
|
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"legacy_bucket_brier": 0.848191,
|
||||
"shadow_bucket_brier": 0.935678,
|
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"delta_mae": 0.0,
|
||||
"delta_bucket_hit_rate": 0.157895,
|
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"delta_bucket_brier": 0.076961
|
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"delta_bucket_hit_rate": 0.052632,
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"delta_bucket_brier": 0.087487
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}
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},
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"recent_observations": [
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@@ -416,8 +416,8 @@
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{
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"city": "taipei",
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"date": "2026-03-19",
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"actual_high": 21.4,
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"actual_bucket": 21,
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"actual_high": 22.0,
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"actual_bucket": 22,
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"legacy_mu": 21.7,
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"shadow_mu": 21.7,
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"legacy_top_bucket": 22,
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@@ -8,7 +8,7 @@
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"city": "shenzhen",
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"date": "2026-03-25",
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"timestamp": "2026-03-25T08:57:11.783182+00:00",
|
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"actual_high": 29.0,
|
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"actual_high": 28.0,
|
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"raw_mu": 26.7,
|
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"raw_sigma": 0.18016764322916676,
|
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"deb_prediction": 28.1,
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@@ -16,7 +16,12 @@
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"ensemble_spread": 0.5078125000000002,
|
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"max_so_far_gap": 1.4000000000000021,
|
||||
"peak_flag": 1.0,
|
||||
"sample_source": "snapshot"
|
||||
"sample_source": "snapshot",
|
||||
"settlement_source": null,
|
||||
"settlement_station_code": null,
|
||||
"truth_version": null,
|
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"truth_updated_by": null,
|
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"truth_updated_at": null
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},
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{
|
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"city": "ankara",
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@@ -29,7 +34,12 @@
|
||||
"ensemble_spread": 1.2000000000000002,
|
||||
"max_so_far_gap": null,
|
||||
"peak_flag": 0.0,
|
||||
"sample_source": "daily_record"
|
||||
"sample_source": "daily_record",
|
||||
"settlement_source": null,
|
||||
"settlement_station_code": null,
|
||||
"truth_version": null,
|
||||
"truth_updated_by": null,
|
||||
"truth_updated_at": null
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"city": "ankara",
|
||||
@@ -42,7 +52,12 @@
|
||||
"ensemble_spread": 2.05,
|
||||
"max_so_far_gap": null,
|
||||
"peak_flag": 0.0,
|
||||
"sample_source": "daily_record"
|
||||
"sample_source": "daily_record",
|
||||
"settlement_source": null,
|
||||
"settlement_station_code": null,
|
||||
"truth_version": null,
|
||||
"truth_updated_by": null,
|
||||
"truth_updated_at": null
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"city": "ankara",
|
||||
@@ -55,7 +70,12 @@
|
||||
"ensemble_spread": 0.9000000000000004,
|
||||
"max_so_far_gap": null,
|
||||
"peak_flag": 0.0,
|
||||
"sample_source": "daily_record"
|
||||
"sample_source": "daily_record",
|
||||
"settlement_source": null,
|
||||
"settlement_station_code": null,
|
||||
"truth_version": null,
|
||||
"truth_updated_by": null,
|
||||
"truth_updated_at": null
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"city": "atlanta",
|
||||
@@ -68,7 +88,12 @@
|
||||
"ensemble_spread": 4.0,
|
||||
"max_so_far_gap": null,
|
||||
"peak_flag": 0.0,
|
||||
"sample_source": "daily_record"
|
||||
"sample_source": "daily_record",
|
||||
"settlement_source": null,
|
||||
"settlement_station_code": null,
|
||||
"truth_version": null,
|
||||
"truth_updated_by": null,
|
||||
"truth_updated_at": null
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"city": "atlanta",
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@@ -81,7 +106,12 @@
|
||||
"ensemble_spread": 1.5500000000000007,
|
||||
"max_so_far_gap": null,
|
||||
"peak_flag": 0.0,
|
||||
"sample_source": "daily_record"
|
||||
"sample_source": "daily_record",
|
||||
"settlement_source": null,
|
||||
"settlement_station_code": null,
|
||||
"truth_version": null,
|
||||
"truth_updated_by": null,
|
||||
"truth_updated_at": null
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"city": "buenos aires",
|
||||
@@ -94,7 +124,12 @@
|
||||
"ensemble_spread": 2.0,
|
||||
"max_so_far_gap": null,
|
||||
"peak_flag": 0.0,
|
||||
"sample_source": "daily_record"
|
||||
"sample_source": "daily_record",
|
||||
"settlement_source": null,
|
||||
"settlement_station_code": null,
|
||||
"truth_version": null,
|
||||
"truth_updated_by": null,
|
||||
"truth_updated_at": null
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"city": "buenos aires",
|
||||
@@ -107,7 +142,12 @@
|
||||
"ensemble_spread": 2.0999999999999996,
|
||||
"max_so_far_gap": null,
|
||||
"peak_flag": 0.0,
|
||||
"sample_source": "daily_record"
|
||||
"sample_source": "daily_record",
|
||||
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|
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@@ -120,7 +160,12 @@
|
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|
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@@ -133,7 +178,12 @@
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|
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@@ -146,7 +196,12 @@
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@@ -159,7 +214,12 @@
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|
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@@ -172,7 +232,12 @@
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|
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@@ -185,7 +250,12 @@
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|
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@@ -198,7 +268,12 @@
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|
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@@ -211,7 +286,12 @@
|
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@@ -224,7 +304,12 @@
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@@ -237,7 +322,12 @@
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@@ -250,7 +340,12 @@
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@@ -263,7 +358,12 @@
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@@ -276,7 +376,12 @@
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@@ -289,7 +394,12 @@
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@@ -302,7 +412,12 @@
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@@ -315,7 +430,12 @@
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@@ -328,7 +448,12 @@
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@@ -341,7 +466,12 @@
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@@ -354,7 +484,12 @@
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@@ -367,7 +502,12 @@
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@@ -380,7 +520,12 @@
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@@ -393,7 +538,12 @@
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@@ -406,7 +556,12 @@
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@@ -419,7 +574,12 @@
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@@ -432,7 +592,12 @@
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@@ -445,7 +610,12 @@
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@@ -458,7 +628,12 @@
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|
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@@ -471,7 +646,12 @@
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@@ -484,7 +664,12 @@
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@@ -497,7 +682,12 @@
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@@ -510,7 +700,12 @@
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@@ -523,7 +718,12 @@
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"city": "taipei",
|
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@@ -536,7 +736,12 @@
|
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@@ -549,12 +754,17 @@
|
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
"truth_updated_by": null,
|
||||
"truth_updated_at": null
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"city": "taipei",
|
||||
"date": "2026-03-19",
|
||||
"actual_high": 21.4,
|
||||
"actual_high": 22.0,
|
||||
"raw_mu": 21.7,
|
||||
"raw_sigma": 1.1500000000000004,
|
||||
"deb_prediction": 21.5,
|
||||
@@ -562,7 +772,12 @@
|
||||
"ensemble_spread": 1.1500000000000004,
|
||||
"max_so_far_gap": null,
|
||||
"peak_flag": 0.0,
|
||||
"sample_source": "daily_record"
|
||||
"sample_source": "daily_record",
|
||||
"settlement_source": null,
|
||||
"settlement_station_code": null,
|
||||
"truth_version": null,
|
||||
"truth_updated_by": null,
|
||||
"truth_updated_at": null
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"city": "tel aviv",
|
||||
@@ -575,7 +790,12 @@
|
||||
"ensemble_spread": 2.1500000000000004,
|
||||
"max_so_far_gap": null,
|
||||
"peak_flag": 0.0,
|
||||
"sample_source": "daily_record"
|
||||
"sample_source": "daily_record",
|
||||
"settlement_source": null,
|
||||
"settlement_station_code": null,
|
||||
"truth_version": null,
|
||||
"truth_updated_by": null,
|
||||
"truth_updated_at": null
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"city": "tel aviv",
|
||||
@@ -588,7 +808,12 @@
|
||||
"ensemble_spread": 1.5,
|
||||
"max_so_far_gap": null,
|
||||
"peak_flag": 0.0,
|
||||
"sample_source": "daily_record"
|
||||
"sample_source": "daily_record",
|
||||
"settlement_source": null,
|
||||
"settlement_station_code": null,
|
||||
"truth_version": null,
|
||||
"truth_updated_by": null,
|
||||
"truth_updated_at": null
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"city": "tokyo",
|
||||
@@ -601,7 +826,12 @@
|
||||
"ensemble_spread": 1.5499999999999998,
|
||||
"max_so_far_gap": null,
|
||||
"peak_flag": 0.0,
|
||||
"sample_source": "daily_record"
|
||||
"sample_source": "daily_record",
|
||||
"settlement_source": null,
|
||||
"settlement_station_code": null,
|
||||
"truth_version": null,
|
||||
"truth_updated_by": null,
|
||||
"truth_updated_at": null
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"city": "tokyo",
|
||||
@@ -614,7 +844,12 @@
|
||||
"ensemble_spread": 2.0999999999999996,
|
||||
"max_so_far_gap": null,
|
||||
"peak_flag": 0.0,
|
||||
"sample_source": "daily_record"
|
||||
"sample_source": "daily_record",
|
||||
"settlement_source": null,
|
||||
"settlement_station_code": null,
|
||||
"truth_version": null,
|
||||
"truth_updated_by": null,
|
||||
"truth_updated_at": null
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"city": "toronto",
|
||||
@@ -627,7 +862,12 @@
|
||||
"ensemble_spread": 0.8,
|
||||
"max_so_far_gap": null,
|
||||
"peak_flag": 0.0,
|
||||
"sample_source": "daily_record"
|
||||
"sample_source": "daily_record",
|
||||
"settlement_source": null,
|
||||
"settlement_station_code": null,
|
||||
"truth_version": null,
|
||||
"truth_updated_by": null,
|
||||
"truth_updated_at": null
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"city": "toronto",
|
||||
@@ -640,7 +880,12 @@
|
||||
"ensemble_spread": 2.1500000000000004,
|
||||
"max_so_far_gap": null,
|
||||
"peak_flag": 0.0,
|
||||
"sample_source": "daily_record"
|
||||
"sample_source": "daily_record",
|
||||
"settlement_source": null,
|
||||
"settlement_station_code": null,
|
||||
"truth_version": null,
|
||||
"truth_updated_by": null,
|
||||
"truth_updated_at": null
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"city": "warsaw",
|
||||
@@ -653,7 +898,12 @@
|
||||
"ensemble_spread": 0.6499999999999995,
|
||||
"max_so_far_gap": null,
|
||||
"peak_flag": 0.0,
|
||||
"sample_source": "daily_record"
|
||||
"sample_source": "daily_record",
|
||||
"settlement_source": null,
|
||||
"settlement_station_code": null,
|
||||
"truth_version": null,
|
||||
"truth_updated_by": null,
|
||||
"truth_updated_at": null
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"city": "warsaw",
|
||||
@@ -666,7 +916,12 @@
|
||||
"ensemble_spread": 1.4000000000000004,
|
||||
"max_so_far_gap": null,
|
||||
"peak_flag": 0.0,
|
||||
"sample_source": "daily_record"
|
||||
"sample_source": "daily_record",
|
||||
"settlement_source": null,
|
||||
"settlement_station_code": null,
|
||||
"truth_version": null,
|
||||
"truth_updated_by": null,
|
||||
"truth_updated_at": null
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"city": "warsaw",
|
||||
@@ -679,7 +934,12 @@
|
||||
"ensemble_spread": 1.5999999999999996,
|
||||
"max_so_far_gap": null,
|
||||
"peak_flag": 0.0,
|
||||
"sample_source": "daily_record"
|
||||
"sample_source": "daily_record",
|
||||
"settlement_source": null,
|
||||
"settlement_station_code": null,
|
||||
"truth_version": null,
|
||||
"truth_updated_by": null,
|
||||
"truth_updated_at": null
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"city": "wellington",
|
||||
@@ -692,7 +952,12 @@
|
||||
"ensemble_spread": 0.9500000000000011,
|
||||
"max_so_far_gap": null,
|
||||
"peak_flag": 0.0,
|
||||
"sample_source": "daily_record"
|
||||
"sample_source": "daily_record",
|
||||
"settlement_source": null,
|
||||
"settlement_station_code": null,
|
||||
"truth_version": null,
|
||||
"truth_updated_by": null,
|
||||
"truth_updated_at": null
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"city": "wellington",
|
||||
@@ -705,7 +970,12 @@
|
||||
"ensemble_spread": 2.0999999999999996,
|
||||
"max_so_far_gap": null,
|
||||
"peak_flag": 0.0,
|
||||
"sample_source": "daily_record"
|
||||
"sample_source": "daily_record",
|
||||
"settlement_source": null,
|
||||
"settlement_station_code": null,
|
||||
"truth_version": null,
|
||||
"truth_updated_by": null,
|
||||
"truth_updated_at": null
|
||||
}
|
||||
]
|
||||
}
|
||||
Reference in New Issue
Block a user