diff --git a/bot_listener.py b/bot_listener.py
index bb7d079f..851fae9a 100644
--- a/bot_listener.py
+++ b/bot_listener.py
@@ -201,12 +201,51 @@ def analyze_weather_trend(weather_data, temp_symbol):
# === 核心判断：实测是否已超预报 ===
is_breakthrough = False
+
+ # METAR 趋势分析（最近 3-4 条报文）
+ recent_temps = metar.get("recent_temps", []) # [("15:00", 5), ("14:20", 5), ("14:00", 3)] 倒序
+ trend_desc = ""
+ if len(recent_temps) >= 2:
+ temps_only = [t for _, t in recent_temps] # 倒序：最新在前
+ latest_val = temps_only[0]
+ prev_val = temps_only[1]
+ diff = latest_val - prev_val
+
+ if len(temps_only) >= 3:
+ # 3 条以上：判断整体趋势
+ all_same = all(t == latest_val for t in temps_only[:3])
+ all_rising = all(temps_only[i] >= temps_only[i+1] for i in range(min(3, len(temps_only)) - 1))
+ all_falling = all(temps_only[i] <= temps_only[i+1] for i in range(min(3, len(temps_only)) - 1))
+
+ trend_display = " → ".join([f"{t}{temp_symbol}@{tm}" for tm, t in recent_temps[:3]])
+
+ if all_same:
+ trend_desc = f"📉 温度已停滞（{trend_display}），大概率到顶。"
+ elif all_rising and diff > 0:
+ trend_desc = f"📈 仍在升温（{trend_display}）。"
+ elif all_falling and diff < 0:
+ trend_desc = f"📉 已开始降温（{trend_display}）。"
+ else:
+ trend_desc = f"📊 温度波动中（{trend_display}）。"
+ elif diff == 0:
+ trend_desc = f"📉 温度持平（最近两条都是 {latest_val}{temp_symbol}）。"
+ elif diff > 0:
+ trend_desc = f"📈 仍在升温（{prev_val} → {latest_val}{temp_symbol}）。"
+ else:
+ trend_desc = f"📉 已开始降温（{prev_val} → {latest_val}{temp_symbol}）。"
+
if max_so_far is not None and forecast_high is not None:
if max_so_far > forecast_high + 0.5:
is_breakthrough = True
exceed_by = max_so_far - forecast_high
- insights.append(f"🚨 实测已超预报：实测最高 {max_so_far}{temp_symbol} 超过了所有预报的天花板 {forecast_high}{temp_symbol}，多了 {exceed_by:.1f}°！")
- insights.append(f"💡 建议：预报已经不准了，实际温度比所有模型预测的都高，需要重新判断。")
+ # 合并为一条：事实 + 趋势（不给主观建议）
+ bt_msg = (
+ f"🚨 实测已超预报：{max_so_far}{temp_symbol} 超过预报上限 "
+ f"{forecast_high}{temp_symbol}（+{exceed_by:.1f}°）。"
+ )
+ if trend_desc:
+ bt_msg += f"\n{trend_desc}"
+ insights.append(bt_msg)
# === 结算取整分析 (Wunderground 四舍五入到整数) ===
if max_so_far is not None:
@@ -387,26 +426,38 @@ def analyze_weather_trend(weather_data, temp_symbol):
if analysis_wind is not None:
wd = analysis_wind
+ # 用趋势数据判断风的实际影响
+ if trend_desc:
+ # 从趋势中提取关键词
+ is_stagnant = "停滞" in trend_desc or "持平" in trend_desc
+ is_rising = "升温" in trend_desc
+ is_falling = "降温" in trend_desc
+ else:
+ is_stagnant = False
+ is_rising = False
+ is_falling = False
+
if 315 <= wd or wd <= 45:
- insights.append(f"🌬️ 吹北风（{wind_source} {wd:.0f}°）：从北方来的冷空气，会压制升温。")
+ effect = ""
+ if is_stagnant or is_falling:
+ effect = "，升温确实被压制"
+ elif is_rising:
+ effect = "，但温度仍在上升"
+ insights.append(f"🌬️ 吹北风（{wind_source} {wd:.0f}°）：冷空气{effect}。")
elif 135 <= wd <= 225:
- gap_to_forecast = forecast_high - (max_so_far if max_so_far is not None else curr_temp)
- if is_peak_passed and not is_breakthrough:
- insights.append(f"🔥 吹南风（{wind_source} {wd:.0f}°）：南方的暖空气还在吹过来，但最热时段已过，后劲不足了。")
- elif gap_to_forecast > 0.5 or is_breakthrough:
- status = "温度还有继续上涨的空间" if not is_breakthrough else "可能把温度推得更高"
- insights.append(f"🔥 吹南风（{wind_source} {wd:.0f}°）：南方的暖空气正在吹过来，{status}。")
- else:
- insights.append(f"🔥 吹南风（{wind_source} {wd:.0f}°）：南方的暖空气正在吹过来，但温度已接近预报峰值。")
+ effect = ""
+ if is_rising:
+ effect = "，温度仍在上升"
+ elif is_stagnant:
+ effect = "，但温度已停滞"
+ elif is_falling:
+ effect = "，但温度已开始下降"
+ insights.append(f"🔥 吹南风（{wind_source} {wd:.0f}°）：暖空气{effect}。")
elif 225 < wd < 315:
- if wd <= 260:
- insights.append(f"🌬️ 吹西南风（{wind_source} {wd:.0f}°）：带有一定暖湿气流，对升温有轻微帮助。")
- elif wd >= 280:
- insights.append(f"🌬️ 吹西北风（{wind_source} {wd:.0f}°）：偏冷的气流，会拖慢升温。")
- else:
- insights.append(f"🌬️ 吹西风（{wind_source} {wd:.0f}°）：对温度影响不大，主要取决于日照和云量。")
+ dir_name = "西南风" if wd <= 260 else ("西北风" if wd >= 280 else "西风")
+ insights.append(f"🌬️ 吹{dir_name}（{wind_source} {wd:.0f}°）。")
elif 45 < wd < 135:
- insights.append(f"🌬️ 吹东风（{wind_source} {wd:.0f}°）：对温度影响较小，主要看日照和云量。")
+ insights.append(f"🌬️ 吹东风（{wind_source} {wd:.0f}°）。")
except (TypeError, ValueError):
pass
diff --git a/src/data_collection/weather_sources.py b/src/data_collection/weather_sources.py
index 9d272e78..a15b6194 100644
--- a/src/data_collection/weather_sources.py
+++ b/src/data_collection/weather_sources.py
@@ -279,17 +279,35 @@ class WeatherDataCollector:
except:
continue
+ # 3. 提取最近 4 条报文的温度（用于趋势分析）
+ recent_temps_raw = [] # [(local_time_str, temp_c), ...]
+ for obs in data[:4]: # data 已按时间倒序
+ obs_rt = obs.get("reportTime", "")
+ obs_temp = obs.get("temp")
+ if obs_temp is not None:
+ try:
+ ct = obs_rt.replace(" ", "T")
+ if not ct.endswith("Z"): ct += "Z"
+ rdt = datetime.fromisoformat(ct.replace("Z", "+00:00"))
+ local_rt = rdt + timedelta(seconds=utc_offset)
+ recent_temps_raw.append((local_rt.strftime("%H:%M"), obs_temp))
+ except:
+ continue
+
# 转换为单位
if use_fahrenheit:
temp = temp_c * 9 / 5 + 32 if temp_c is not None else None
max_so_far = max_so_far_c * 9 / 5 + 32 if max_so_far_c > -900 else None
dewp = dewp_c * 9 / 5 + 32 if dewp_c is not None else None
unit = "fahrenheit"
+ # 转换最近温度
+ recent_temps = [(t, round(v * 9 / 5 + 32, 1)) for t, v in recent_temps_raw]
else:
temp = temp_c
max_so_far = max_so_far_c if max_so_far_c > -900 else None
dewp = dewp_c
unit = "celsius"
+ recent_temps = [(t, v) for t, v in recent_temps_raw]
result = {
"source": "metar",
@@ -310,6 +328,7 @@ class WeatherDataCollector:
"altimeter": latest.get("altim"),
"clouds": latest.get("clouds", []),
},
+ "recent_temps": recent_temps, # 最近4条: [("15:00", 5), ("14:20", 5), ...]
"unit": unit,
}