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Expand calibration samples and extend training retention

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This commit is contained in:
2569718930@qq.com
2026-04-16 01:05:43 +08:00
parent 53d2ae4c10
commit 611e2d9009
5 changed files with 384 additions and 103 deletions
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artifacts/probability_calibration/default.json
+69 -44
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@@ -1,20 +1,20 @@
{
"version": "emos-20260415164136",
"trained_at": "2026-04-15T16:41:36.704829+00:00",
"version": "emos-20260415170349",
"trained_at": "2026-04-15T17:03:49.122865+00:00",
"global": {
"mu": {
"intercept": -0.39094186,
"raw_mu_coef": 0.27476248,
"deb_coef": 0.91159557,
"ens_median_coef": -0.16959018,
"max_so_far_gap_coef": -0.94232523
"intercept": 2.45853035,
"raw_mu_coef": 2.03689031,
"deb_coef": -1.41207502,
"ens_median_coef": 0.08616811,
"max_so_far_gap_coef": -0.5886898
},
"sigma": {
"intercept": -1.56485068,
"raw_sigma_coef": 0.12930442,
"spread_coef": 0.15947819,
"peak_flag_coef": 0.19328621,
"max_so_far_gap_coef": -0.08469752
"intercept": 0.61260118,
"raw_sigma_coef": -1.48747774,
"spread_coef": 2.24562634,
"peak_flag_coef": -0.15906747,
"max_so_far_gap_coef": -0.01835251
}
},
"sigma_constraints": {
@@ -29,56 +29,81 @@
"max_bucket_brier_increase": 0.05
},
"blending": {
"alpha_mu": 1.0,
"alpha_sigma": 0.5
"alpha_mu": 0.05,
"alpha_sigma": 1.0
},
"cities": {
"tokyo": {
"samples": 4,
"mu_bias": 0.211244,
"sigma_scale": 0.5,
"confidence": 0.5
"samples": 5,
"mu_bias": 2.223946,
"sigma_scale": 2.0,
"confidence": 0.625
},
"ankara": {
"samples": 11,
"mu_bias": 0.027471,
"sigma_scale": 0.5,
"confidence": 1.0
"samples": 6,
"mu_bias": -0.396953,
"sigma_scale": 1.094474,
"confidence": 0.75
},
"istanbul": {
"samples": 12,
"mu_bias": 0.048913,
"samples": 3,
"mu_bias": -0.163153,
"sigma_scale": 0.5,
"confidence": 1.0
"confidence": 0.375
},
"hong kong": {
"samples": 12,
"mu_bias": -0.026823,
"sigma_scale": 1.020494,
"confidence": 1.0
"samples": 7,
"mu_bias": 3.267553,
"sigma_scale": 2.0,
"confidence": 0.875
},
"taipei": {
"samples": 5,
"mu_bias": 0.192719,
"sigma_scale": 0.5,
"mu_bias": 4.80044,
"sigma_scale": 2.0,
"confidence": 0.625
},
"seoul": {
"samples": 3,
"mu_bias": -3.080962,
"sigma_scale": 1.437353,
"confidence": 0.375
},
"milan": {
"samples": 3,
"mu_bias": -4.20255,
"sigma_scale": 2.0,
"confidence": 0.375
},
"shanghai": {
"samples": 3,
"mu_bias": 1.185335,
"sigma_scale": 1.68386,
"confidence": 0.375
},
"warsaw": {
"samples": 3,
"mu_bias": -1.574246,
"sigma_scale": 1.343402,
"confidence": 0.375
}
},
"metrics": {
"sample_count": 50,
"mean_crps": 0.278798,
"legacy_mean_crps": 1.26525,
"legacy_mean_mae": 1.4674,
"legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 0.54,
"legacy_bucket_brier": 0.744518,
"selected_mean_crps": 0.278798,
"selected_mean_mae": 0.248457,
"selected_bucket_hit_rate": 0.82,
"selected_bucket_brier": 0.369542,
"selected_score": 0.8508,
"legacy_score": 2.660378,
"sample_count": 71,
"mean_crps": 3.226613,
"legacy_mean_crps": 3.608885,
"legacy_mean_mae": 3.81507,
"legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 0.492958,
"legacy_bucket_brier": 0.873776,
"selected_mean_crps": 3.44742,
"selected_mean_mae": 3.749078,
"selected_bucket_hit_rate": 0.492958,
"selected_bucket_brier": 0.878621,
"selected_score": 5.241857,
"legacy_score": 5.406287,
"filled_actual_from_history": 0,
"settlement_history_city_count": 30
"settlement_history_city_count": 30,
"legacy_archive_samples": 54
},
"source": "artifacts\\probability_calibration\\default.json"
}