From 58a09fe6fe326c0a8f4e5f546e7ffef141f60afd Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: "2569718930@qq.com" <2569718930@qq.com> Date: Tue, 24 Mar 2026 01:28:45 +0800 Subject: [PATCH] Add upper-air structure signals to intraday analysis --- .../dashboard/FutureForecastModal.tsx | 37 ++++ frontend/lib/dashboard-types.ts | 22 ++ frontend/lib/dashboard-utils.ts | 124 +++++++++++ src/data_collection/nws_open_meteo_sources.py | 7 +- web/analysis_service.py | 205 ++++++++++++++++++ 5 files changed, 394 insertions(+), 1 deletion(-) diff --git a/frontend/components/dashboard/FutureForecastModal.tsx b/frontend/components/dashboard/FutureForecastModal.tsx index 8a69fd53..2acf4927 100644 --- a/frontend/components/dashboard/FutureForecastModal.tsx +++ b/frontend/components/dashboard/FutureForecastModal.tsx @@ -932,6 +932,43 @@ export function FutureForecastModal() { ))} + {view.front.upperAirSummary || + (view.front.upperAirMetrics?.length || 0) > 0 ? ( + <> +
+ {locale === "en-US" ? "Upper-Air Structure" : "高空结构信号"} +
+ {view.front.upperAirSummary ? ( +
+ {view.front.upperAirSummary} +
+ ) : null} +
+ {(view.front.upperAirMetrics || []).map((metric) => ( +
+
{metric.label}
+
+ {metric.value} +
+
{metric.note}
+
+ ))} +
+ + ) : null}
diff --git a/frontend/lib/dashboard-types.ts b/frontend/lib/dashboard-types.ts index 25f5e075..cee9fc2c 100644 --- a/frontend/lib/dashboard-types.ts +++ b/frontend/lib/dashboard-types.ts @@ -153,9 +153,15 @@ export interface HourlySeries { pressure_msl?: Array; wind_speed_10m?: Array; wind_direction_10m?: Array; + wind_speed_180m?: Array; + wind_direction_180m?: Array; precipitation_probability?: Array; cloud_cover?: Array; radiation?: Array; + cape?: Array; + convective_inhibition?: Array; + lifted_index?: Array; + boundary_layer_height?: Array; } export interface WeatherGovPeriod { @@ -298,6 +304,22 @@ export interface CityDetail { summary?: string | null; notes?: string[] | null; }; + vertical_profile_signal?: { + source?: string | null; + window_start?: string | null; + window_end?: string | null; + cape_max?: number | null; + cin_min?: number | null; + lifted_index_min?: number | null; + boundary_layer_height_max?: number | null; + shear_10m_180m_max?: number | null; + suppression_risk?: string | null; + trigger_risk?: string | null; + mixing_strength?: string | null; + shear_risk?: string | null; + summary_zh?: string | null; + summary_en?: string | null; + }; ai_analysis?: string | AiAnalysisStructured | null; updated_at?: string; multi_model_daily?: Record; diff --git a/frontend/lib/dashboard-utils.ts b/frontend/lib/dashboard-utils.ts index a0e5f2fb..e29b2762 100644 --- a/frontend/lib/dashboard-utils.ts +++ b/frontend/lib/dashboard-utils.ts @@ -579,6 +579,122 @@ export function computeFrontTrendSignal( dateStr: string, locale: Locale = "zh-CN", ) { + const upperAirSignal = detail.vertical_profile_signal || {}; + const upperAirMetrics = upperAirSignal.source + ? [ + { + label: isEnglish(locale) ? "Convective suppression" : "对流压温风险", + note: + upperAirSignal.cape_max != null || upperAirSignal.cin_min != null + ? isEnglish(locale) + ? `CAPE max ${Math.round(Number(upperAirSignal.cape_max ?? 0))}, CIN min ${Number(upperAirSignal.cin_min ?? 0).toFixed(0)}.` + : `CAPE 峰值 ${Math.round(Number(upperAirSignal.cape_max ?? 0))}，CIN 最低 ${Number(upperAirSignal.cin_min ?? 0).toFixed(0)}。` + : isEnglish(locale) + ? "Derived from the next 48h upper-air profile." + : "根据未来 48 小时高空剖面估算。", + tone: + upperAirSignal.suppression_risk === "high" + ? "cold" + : upperAirSignal.suppression_risk === "low" + ? "warm" + : "", + value: + upperAirSignal.suppression_risk === "high" + ? isEnglish(locale) + ? "High" + : "高" + : upperAirSignal.suppression_risk === "medium" + ? isEnglish(locale) + ? "Medium" + : "中" + : isEnglish(locale) + ? "Low" + : "低", + }, + { + label: isEnglish(locale) ? "Trigger setup" : "午后触发性", + note: + upperAirSignal.lifted_index_min != null + ? isEnglish(locale) + ? `Lifted index min ${Number(upperAirSignal.lifted_index_min).toFixed(1)}.` + : `Lifted Index 最低 ${Number(upperAirSignal.lifted_index_min).toFixed(1)}。` + : isEnglish(locale) + ? "Uses instability and lifted-index structure." + : "结合不稳定能量与抬升指数判断。", + tone: + upperAirSignal.trigger_risk === "high" + ? "cold" + : upperAirSignal.trigger_risk === "low" + ? "warm" + : "", + value: + upperAirSignal.trigger_risk === "high" + ? isEnglish(locale) + ? "High" + : "高" + : upperAirSignal.trigger_risk === "medium" + ? isEnglish(locale) + ? "Medium" + : "中" + : isEnglish(locale) + ? "Low" + : "低", + }, + { + label: isEnglish(locale) ? "Deep mixing" : "深层混合", + note: + upperAirSignal.boundary_layer_height_max != null + ? isEnglish(locale) + ? `Boundary-layer height peaks near ${Math.round(Number(upperAirSignal.boundary_layer_height_max))} m.` + : `边界层高度峰值约 ${Math.round(Number(upperAirSignal.boundary_layer_height_max))} 米。` + : isEnglish(locale) + ? "Tracks daytime boundary-layer depth." + : "跟踪白天边界层混合深度。", + tone: + upperAirSignal.mixing_strength === "strong" + ? "warm" + : upperAirSignal.mixing_strength === "weak" + ? "cold" + : "", + value: + upperAirSignal.mixing_strength === "strong" + ? isEnglish(locale) + ? "Strong" + : "强" + : upperAirSignal.mixing_strength === "medium" + ? isEnglish(locale) + ? "Medium" + : "中" + : isEnglish(locale) + ? "Weak" + : "弱", + }, + { + label: isEnglish(locale) ? "Shear proxy" : "高空风切变", + note: + upperAirSignal.shear_10m_180m_max != null + ? isEnglish(locale) + ? `10m-180m shear proxy peaks near ${Number(upperAirSignal.shear_10m_180m_max).toFixed(1)}.` + : `10m-180m 风切变代理峰值约 ${Number(upperAirSignal.shear_10m_180m_max).toFixed(1)}。` + : isEnglish(locale) + ? "Uses 10m vs 180m wind-vector spread as a simple proxy." + : "使用 10m 与 180m 风矢量差做简化代理。", + tone: upperAirSignal.shear_risk === "high" ? "cold" : "", + value: + upperAirSignal.shear_risk === "high" + ? isEnglish(locale) + ? "High" + : "高" + : upperAirSignal.shear_risk === "medium" + ? isEnglish(locale) + ? "Medium" + : "中" + : isEnglish(locale) + ? "Low" + : "低", + }, + ] + : []; const backendSummary = dateStr === detail.local_date ? String(detail.dynamic_commentary?.summary || "").trim() @@ -602,6 +718,10 @@ export function computeFrontTrendSignal( tone?: string; value: string; }>, + upperAirMetrics, + upperAirSummary: isEnglish(locale) + ? String(upperAirSignal.summary_en || "").trim() + : String(upperAirSignal.summary_zh || "").trim(), precipMax: 0, score: 0, summary: @@ -1083,6 +1203,10 @@ export function computeFrontTrendSignal( confidence, label, metrics, + upperAirMetrics, + upperAirSummary: isEnglish(locale) + ? String(upperAirSignal.summary_en || "").trim() + : String(upperAirSignal.summary_zh || "").trim(), precipMax, score, summary: backendSummary || summary, diff --git a/src/data_collection/nws_open_meteo_sources.py b/src/data_collection/nws_open_meteo_sources.py index 7d4e8cef..0657e549 100644 --- a/src/data_collection/nws_open_meteo_sources.py +++ b/src/data_collection/nws_open_meteo_sources.py @@ -187,7 +187,12 @@ class NwsOpenMeteoSourceMixin: "latitude": lat, "longitude": lon, "current_weather": "true", - "hourly": "temperature_2m,shortwave_radiation,dew_point_2m,pressure_msl,wind_speed_10m,wind_direction_10m,precipitation_probability,cloud_cover", + "hourly": ( + "temperature_2m,shortwave_radiation,dew_point_2m,pressure_msl," + "wind_speed_10m,wind_direction_10m,wind_speed_180m,wind_direction_180m," + "precipitation_probability,cloud_cover,cape,convective_inhibition," + "lifted_index,boundary_layer_height" + ), "daily": "temperature_2m_max,apparent_temperature_max,sunrise,sunset,sunshine_duration", "timezone": "auto", "forecast_days": forecast_days, diff --git a/web/analysis_service.py b/web/analysis_service.py index d3bf5dbc..9021e375 100644 --- a/web/analysis_service.py +++ b/web/analysis_service.py @@ -24,6 +24,167 @@ from src.analysis.settlement_rounding import apply_city_settlement from src.analysis.metar_narrator import describe_metar_report from src.data_collection.city_registry import ALIASES +def _wind_components(speed: Optional[float], direction: Optional[float]) -> tuple[Optional[float], Optional[float]]: + if speed is None or direction is None: + return None, None + try: + import math + + rad = math.radians(float(direction)) + spd = float(speed) + u = -spd * math.sin(rad) + v = -spd * math.cos(rad) + return u, v + except Exception: + return None, None + + +def _build_vertical_profile_signal( + hourly_next_48h: Dict[str, list], + local_date: str, + local_hour: int, +) -> Dict[str, Any]: + times = hourly_next_48h.get("times") or [] + if not times: + return {} + + preferred_start = max(local_hour, 12) + preferred_end = 19 + candidate_indexes = [ + index + for index, ts in enumerate(times) + if str(ts).startswith(local_date) + and preferred_start <= int(str(ts).split("T")[1][:2]) <= preferred_end + ] + if not candidate_indexes: + candidate_indexes = [ + index + for index, ts in enumerate(times) + if str(ts).startswith(local_date) + ] + if not candidate_indexes: + return {} + + def _series(name: str) -> list: + values = hourly_next_48h.get(name) or [] + return [values[idx] if idx < len(values) else None for idx in candidate_indexes] + + def _max_numeric(values: list) -> Optional[float]: + valid = [_sf(value) for value in values if _sf(value) is not None] + return max(valid) if valid else None + + def _min_numeric(values: list) -> Optional[float]: + valid = [_sf(value) for value in values if _sf(value) is not None] + return min(valid) if valid else None + + cape_max = _max_numeric(_series("cape")) + cin_min = _min_numeric(_series("convective_inhibition")) + lifted_index_min = _min_numeric(_series("lifted_index")) + boundary_layer_height_max = _max_numeric(_series("boundary_layer_height")) + + shear_values: list[float] = [] + speed_10m = hourly_next_48h.get("wind_speed_10m") or [] + direction_10m = hourly_next_48h.get("wind_direction_10m") or [] + speed_180m = hourly_next_48h.get("wind_speed_180m") or [] + direction_180m = hourly_next_48h.get("wind_direction_180m") or [] + for idx in candidate_indexes: + s10 = _sf(speed_10m[idx]) if idx < len(speed_10m) else None + d10 = _sf(direction_10m[idx]) if idx < len(direction_10m) else None + s180 = _sf(speed_180m[idx]) if idx < len(speed_180m) else None + d180 = _sf(direction_180m[idx]) if idx < len(direction_180m) else None + u10, v10 = _wind_components(s10, d10) + u180, v180 = _wind_components(s180, d180) + if None in (u10, v10, u180, v180): + continue + import math + + shear_values.append(math.sqrt((u180 - u10) ** 2 + (v180 - v10) ** 2)) + shear_10m_180m_max = max(shear_values) if shear_values else None + + suppression_risk = "low" + if (cape_max is not None and cape_max >= 900) or ( + cin_min is not None and cin_min <= -60 + ): + suppression_risk = "high" + elif (cape_max is not None and cape_max >= 300) or ( + cin_min is not None and cin_min <= -20 + ): + suppression_risk = "medium" + + trigger_risk = "low" + if ( + cape_max is not None + and cape_max >= 800 + and lifted_index_min is not None + and lifted_index_min <= -2 + ): + trigger_risk = "high" + elif ( + cape_max is not None + and cape_max >= 250 + and lifted_index_min is not None + and lifted_index_min <= 0 + ): + trigger_risk = "medium" + + mixing_strength = "weak" + if boundary_layer_height_max is not None and boundary_layer_height_max >= 1800: + mixing_strength = "strong" + elif boundary_layer_height_max is not None and boundary_layer_height_max >= 1000: + mixing_strength = "medium" + + shear_risk = "low" + if shear_10m_180m_max is not None and shear_10m_180m_max >= 12: + shear_risk = "high" + elif shear_10m_180m_max is not None and shear_10m_180m_max >= 6: + shear_risk = "medium" + + zh_parts = [] + en_parts = [] + if suppression_risk == "high": + zh_parts.append("午后对流压温风险偏高。") + en_parts.append("Afternoon convective suppression risk is elevated.") + elif suppression_risk == "medium": + zh_parts.append("存在一定云雨压温风险。") + en_parts.append("There is some cloud and shower suppression risk.") + if mixing_strength == "strong": + zh_parts.append("边界层混合较深，若无云雨打断仍有冲高空间。") + en_parts.append("Deep boundary-layer mixing still supports additional warming if convection stays limited.") + elif mixing_strength == "medium": + zh_parts.append("白天混合条件中等。") + en_parts.append("Daytime mixing potential is moderate.") + if shear_risk == "high": + zh_parts.append("高空风切变较强，午后结构波动可能加大。") + en_parts.append("Upper-level shear is relatively strong and may increase afternoon volatility.") + if trigger_risk == "high": + zh_parts.append("抬升触发条件较好，需警惕午后云团发展。") + en_parts.append("Trigger conditions are favorable enough to watch for afternoon convective development.") + elif trigger_risk == "medium": + zh_parts.append("午后具备一定触发条件。") + en_parts.append("There is some afternoon trigger potential.") + if not zh_parts: + zh_parts.append("高空结构整体平稳，暂未看到明显压温信号。") + if not en_parts: + en_parts.append("The upper-air structure looks fairly stable, without a strong suppression signal yet.") + + return { + "source": "open-meteo-gfs", + "window_start": times[candidate_indexes[0]] if candidate_indexes else None, + "window_end": times[candidate_indexes[-1]] if candidate_indexes else None, + "cape_max": cape_max, + "cin_min": cin_min, + "lifted_index_min": lifted_index_min, + "boundary_layer_height_max": boundary_layer_height_max, + "shear_10m_180m_max": shear_10m_180m_max, + "suppression_risk": suppression_risk, + "trigger_risk": trigger_risk, + "mixing_strength": mixing_strength, + "shear_risk": shear_risk, + "summary_zh": "".join(zh_parts), + "summary_en": " ".join(en_parts), + } + + def _analyze(city: str, force_refresh: bool = False) -> Dict[str, Any]: """Fetch, analyse, and return structured weather data for one city.""" # Check cache @@ -301,8 +462,14 @@ def _analyze(city: str, force_refresh: bool = False) -> Dict[str, Any]: h_pressure = hourly.get("pressure_msl", []) h_wspd = hourly.get("wind_speed_10m", []) h_wdir = hourly.get("wind_direction_10m", []) + h_wspd_180m = hourly.get("wind_speed_180m", []) + h_wdir_180m = hourly.get("wind_direction_180m", []) h_precip_prob = hourly.get("precipitation_probability", []) h_cloud_cover = hourly.get("cloud_cover", []) + h_cape = hourly.get("cape", []) + h_cin = hourly.get("convective_inhibition", []) + h_lifted_index = hourly.get("lifted_index", []) + h_boundary_layer_height = hourly.get("boundary_layer_height", []) if (not h_times or not h_temps) and metar: metar_today_obs = metar.get("today_obs", []) or [] parsed_obs = [] @@ -324,8 +491,14 @@ def _analyze(city: str, force_refresh: bool = False) -> Dict[str, Any]: h_pressure = [None for _ in parsed_obs] h_wspd = [None for _ in parsed_obs] h_wdir = [None for _ in parsed_obs] + h_wspd_180m = [None for _ in parsed_obs] + h_wdir_180m = [None for _ in parsed_obs] h_precip_prob = [None for _ in parsed_obs] h_cloud_cover = [None for _ in parsed_obs] + h_cape = [None for _ in parsed_obs] + h_cin = [None for _ in parsed_obs] + h_lifted_index = [None for _ in parsed_obs] + h_boundary_layer_height = [None for _ in parsed_obs] peak_hours = [] if h_times and h_temps and om_today is not None: @@ -422,8 +595,14 @@ def _analyze(city: str, force_refresh: bool = False) -> Dict[str, Any]: "pressure_msl": [], "wind_speed_10m": [], "wind_direction_10m": [], + "wind_speed_180m": [], + "wind_direction_180m": [], "precipitation_probability": [], "cloud_cover": [], + "cape": [], + "convective_inhibition": [], + "lifted_index": [], + "boundary_layer_height": [], } try: local_anchor = datetime.strptime( @@ -454,12 +633,36 @@ def _analyze(city: str, force_refresh: bool = False) -> Dict[str, Any]: next_48h_hourly["wind_direction_10m"].append( h_wdir[i] if i < len(h_wdir) else None ) + next_48h_hourly["wind_speed_180m"].append( + h_wspd_180m[i] if i < len(h_wspd_180m) else None + ) + next_48h_hourly["wind_direction_180m"].append( + h_wdir_180m[i] if i < len(h_wdir_180m) else None + ) next_48h_hourly["precipitation_probability"].append( h_precip_prob[i] if i < len(h_precip_prob) else None ) next_48h_hourly["cloud_cover"].append( h_cloud_cover[i] if i < len(h_cloud_cover) else None ) + next_48h_hourly["cape"].append( + h_cape[i] if i < len(h_cape) else None + ) + next_48h_hourly["convective_inhibition"].append( + h_cin[i] if i < len(h_cin) else None + ) + next_48h_hourly["lifted_index"].append( + h_lifted_index[i] if i < len(h_lifted_index) else None + ) + next_48h_hourly["boundary_layer_height"].append( + h_boundary_layer_height[i] if i < len(h_boundary_layer_height) else None + ) + + vertical_profile_signal = _build_vertical_profile_signal( + next_48h_hourly, + local_date_str, + local_hour, + ) # ── 13. Cloud description (METAR primary, MGM fallback) ── clouds = mc.get("clouds", []) @@ -683,6 +886,7 @@ def _analyze(city: str, force_refresh: bool = False) -> Dict[str, Any]: "dynamic_commentary": dynamic_commentary, "hourly": today_hourly, "hourly_next_48h": next_48h_hourly, + "vertical_profile_signal": vertical_profile_signal, "metar_today_obs": metar_today_obs_payload, "metar_recent_obs": metar_recent_obs_payload, "settlement_today_obs": settlement_today_obs, @@ -866,6 +1070,7 @@ def _build_city_detail_payload( }, "probabilities": data.get("probabilities") or {"mu": None, "distribution": []}, "dynamic_commentary": data.get("dynamic_commentary") or {"summary": "", "notes": []}, + "vertical_profile_signal": data.get("vertical_profile_signal") or {}, "market_scan": market_scan, "risk": data.get("risk"), "nearby_source": data.get("nearby_source") or ("mgm" if data.get("name") == "ankara" else "metar_cluster"),