diff --git a/src/data_collection/polymarket_readonly.py b/src/data_collection/polymarket_readonly.py
index 82491b1a..d1c87e89 100644
--- a/src/data_collection/polymarket_readonly.py
+++ b/src/data_collection/polymarket_readonly.py
@@ -813,11 +813,10 @@ class PolymarketReadOnlyLayer:
         if not city_hit:
             return 0.0
 
-        score = 40.0
-
-        weather_hit = any(_contains_token(haystack, keyword) for keyword in WEATHER_KEYWORDS)
-        if not weather_hit:
+        if not self._is_temperature_market(market):
             return 0.0
+
+        score = 40.0
         score += 18.0
 
         d_target = _parse_target_date(target_date)
@@ -874,6 +873,42 @@ class PolymarketReadOnlyLayer:
         score += min(volume / 50000.0, 8.0)
         return score
 
+    def _is_temperature_market(self, market: Dict[str, Any]) -> bool:
+        text_parts = [
+            market.get("question"),
+            market.get("title"),
+            market.get("slug"),
+            market.get("eventSlug"),
+            market.get("description"),
+        ]
+        raw_text = " ".join(str(part or "") for part in text_parts)
+        if not raw_text:
+            return False
+
+        # Hard signal: contains explicit Celsius bucket text like "10C" / "10°C"
+        if re.search(r"(-?\d+(?:\.\d+)?)\s*[°º]?\s*c\b", raw_text, re.IGNORECASE):
+            return True
+
+        text = _normalize_text(raw_text)
+        if not text:
+            return False
+
+        # Weather temperature event patterns.
+        if "highest temperature" in text:
+            return True
+        if "temperature in" in text:
+            return True
+        if "high temperature" in text:
+            return True
+
+        # Conservative fallback: must explicitly mention temperature and boundary wording.
+        if "temperature" in text and any(
+            key in text for key in ("or higher", "or above", "or lower", "or below", "and above", "and below")
+        ):
+            return True
+
+        return False
+
     def _extract_market_date(self, market: Dict[str, Any]) -> Optional[str]:
         for key in (
             "endDate",
@@ -1221,6 +1256,10 @@ class PolymarketReadOnlyLayer:
             ]
         ] = []
         for market in candidate_markets:
+            bucket_temp = self._extract_market_bucket_temp(market)
+            if bucket_temp is None:
+                continue
+
             tokens = self._extract_market_tokens(market)
             yes_token, no_token = self._resolve_yes_no_tokens(tokens)
             if not yes_token or not no_token:
@@ -1289,7 +1328,6 @@ class PolymarketReadOnlyLayer:
             if no_sell is None and yes_sell is not None:
                 no_sell = max(0.0, min(1.0, 1.0 - yes_sell))
 
-            bucket_temp = self._extract_market_bucket_temp(market)
             market_slug = str(market.get("slug") or "").strip()
 
             top_rows.append(
diff --git a/src/utils/telegram_push.py b/src/utils/telegram_push.py
index 4a8a8edd..b6a451d3 100644
--- a/src/utils/telegram_push.py
+++ b/src/utils/telegram_push.py
@@ -141,7 +141,7 @@ def _market_price_cap_ok(alert_payload: Dict[str, Any], max_yes_buy: float) -> b
     if not isinstance(market, dict) or not market.get("available"):
         return True
 
-    # Prefer the market bucket that maps to Open-Meteo forecast settlement.
+    # Strict rule: use the bucket mapped from Open-Meteo settlement.
     forecast_bucket = market.get("forecast_bucket") or {}
     yes_buy = None
     bucket_label = None
@@ -149,27 +149,14 @@ def _market_price_cap_ok(alert_payload: Dict[str, Any], max_yes_buy: float) -> b
         yes_buy = _norm_prob(forecast_bucket.get("yes_buy"))
         bucket_label = str(forecast_bucket.get("label") or "").strip() or None
 
-    # Backward-compatible fallback.
     if yes_buy is None:
-        yes_buy = _norm_prob(market.get("yes_buy"))
-        if not bucket_label:
-            bucket_label = str(market.get("selected_bucket") or "").strip() or None
-
-    if yes_buy is None:
-        # Fallback to first bucket with valid yes_buy if aggregate field is missing.
-        top_rows = market.get("top_bucket_rows") or []
-        if isinstance(top_rows, list):
-            for row in top_rows:
-                if not isinstance(row, dict):
-                    continue
-                yes_buy = _norm_prob(row.get("yes_buy"))
-                if yes_buy is not None:
-                    if not bucket_label:
-                        bucket_label = str(row.get("label") or "").strip() or None
-                    break
-
-    if yes_buy is None:
-        return True
+        logger.info(
+            "trade alert skipped: no mapped forecast bucket city={} om_settle={}".format(
+                alert_payload.get("city"),
+                market.get("open_meteo_settlement"),
+            )
+        )
+        return False
 
     if yes_buy >= max_yes_buy:
         logger.info(