Improve DEB calibration and training metrics

2026-06-07 22:51:18 +08:00
parent 12935f502f
commit 41e819735d
9 changed files with 690 additions and 57 deletions
@@ -128,6 +128,52 @@ def test_calculate_deb_prediction_keeps_raw_and_adds_versioned_bias_correction(m
    assert result["bias_samples"] == 3


+def test_calculate_deb_prediction_prefers_bucket_calibration_when_enough_samples(monkeypatch):
+    monkeypatch.setattr(
+        "src.analysis.deb_algorithm.load_history",
+        lambda _: {
+            "ankara": {
+                "2026-04-11": {
+                    "actual_high": 21.0,
+                    "deb_prediction": 20.4,
+                    "forecasts": {"ECMWF": 20.4, "GFS": 20.4},
+                },
+                "2026-04-12": {
+                    "actual_high": 22.0,
+                    "deb_prediction": 21.4,
+                    "forecasts": {"ECMWF": 21.4, "GFS": 21.4},
+                },
+                "2026-04-13": {
+                    "actual_high": 23.0,
+                    "deb_prediction": 22.4,
+                    "forecasts": {"ECMWF": 22.4, "GFS": 22.4},
+                },
+                "2026-04-14": {
+                    "actual_high": 24.0,
+                    "deb_prediction": 23.4,
+                    "forecasts": {"ECMWF": 23.4, "GFS": 23.4},
+                },
+                "2026-04-15": {
+                    "actual_high": 25.0,
+                    "deb_prediction": 24.4,
+                    "forecasts": {"ECMWF": 24.4, "GFS": 24.4},
+                },
+            }
+        },
+    )
+
+    result = calculate_deb_prediction(
+        "ankara",
+        {"ECMWF": 25.4, "GFS": 25.4},
+    )
+
+    assert result["raw_prediction"] == 25.4
+    assert result["prediction"] == 26.0
+    assert result["version"] == "deb_v2_bucket_calibrated"
+    assert result["bias_adjustment"] == 0.6
+    assert result["bias_samples"] == 5
+
+
 def test_compute_hourly_model_errors_basic():
    from src.analysis.deb_algorithm import compute_hourly_model_errors