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feat: Rework PolyWeather as a real-time weather query bot, suspending trading functionalities and adding a doc refresher skill.

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# 🌡️ PolyWeather: Polymarket Weather Trading Monitor
# 🌡️ PolyWeather: Real-time Weather Query & Analysis Bot
An intelligent monitoring and alerting system based on multi-source real-time meteorological data and Polymarket market pricing deviation analysis.
An intelligent weather information bot designed to provide ultra-fast, live meteorological data, high-fidelity forecasts, and smart trend analysis. Built for speed and accuracy, it bypasses network caching to deliver the most up-to-date reports from global weather stations.
## 🚀 Quick Start
### Requirements
- **Python 3.11** (Required for `py-clob-client` dependency)
- All dependencies installed: `pip install -r requirements.txt`
- **Python 3.11+**
- Dependencies: `pip install -r requirements.txt`
### Windows
```powershell
# Option 1: Use Python 3.11 launcher
py -3.11 run.py
# Option 2: Activate virtual environment first
.venv\Scripts\activate
python run.py
```
### Linux/VPS
### Running Locally (Windows/Linux)
```bash
# Use screen to keep it running in background
screen -S polyweather
python3.11 run.py
# Windows
py -3.11 run.py
# Detach: Press Ctrl+A then D
# Reattach: screen -r polyweather
# Linux/VPS
python3 run.py
```
This command launches:
1. **Monitoring Engine**: Scans markets 24/7, providing **85¢-95¢ Price Alerts** and **Market Anomalies**.
2. **Command Listener**: Handles Telegram commands and returns real-time signals.
_Note: The system is currently in **Weather Query Mode**. Active market monitoring and automated trading modules are suspended._
---
## 🤖 Telegram Bot Commands
| Command | Description | Usage |
| :---------------- | :---------------------- | :--------------------------------------------- |
| `/signal` | **Get Trading Signals** | Returns Top 5 markets with earliest settlement |
| `/city [name]` | **Query City Details** | Get market info, forecast & live temperature |
| `/portfolio` | **View Portfolio** | Get real-time paper trading profit report |
| `/status` | **Check Status** | Confirm if the monitoring engine is online |
| `/help` | **Help** | Display all available commands |
| Command | Description | Usage |
| :------------- | :--------------------- | :--------------------------------------------- |
| `/city [name]` | **Query City Weather** | Get detailed forecasts, METAR & trend analysis |
| `/id` | **Get Chat ID** | Retrieve your current Telegram Chat ID |
| `/help` | **Help** | Display all available commands |
### /city Command Example
```
/city chicago
/city London
```
Output:
```
📍 Chicago Market Details
════════════════════
**Real-time Output:**
🕐 Local Time: 08:30
📊 Open-Meteo Forecast
👉 Today: High 38°F
02-08: High 42°F
02-09: High 45°F
✈️ Airport Obs (KORD)
🌡️ 32.0°F
💨 Wind: 12kt
🕐 Observed: 14:00 UTC
📅 2026-02-07 Forecast:38°F
──────────────────
🔥 40-41°F: No 94¢ →Buy NO
🔥 38-39°F: Yes 91¢ →Buy YES
⭐ 36-37°F: No 87¢ →Buy NO
```
Supported abbreviations: `chi` (Chicago), `nyc` (New York), `atl` (Atlanta), `sea` (Seattle), `dal` (Dallas), `mia` (Miami)
> 📍 **London 天气详情**
> ⏱️ 生成时间: 00:41:17
> ═══ ═══ ═══ ═══ ═══ ═══
> 🕐 当地时间: 16:41
>
> 📊 **Open-Meteo 7天预测**
> 👉 今天: 最高 12°C
> 02-09: 最高 11°C
>
> ✈️ **机场实测 (EGLC)**
> 🌡️ 10.0°C
> 💨 风速: 12kt
> 🕐 观测: 16:20 (当地)
>
> 💡 **态势分析**
> 📉 **处于降温期**：气温已开始从峰值下滑，今日大概率不会再反弹。
> 🍃 **清劲风**：空气流动快，虽然有助于散热，但可能伴随阵风引起微小波动。
---
## 🎯 Smart Dynamic Position Strategy
## ✨ Key Features
The system automatically decides the position size based on **Open-Meteo Weather Forecasts**, **Volume**, and **Price Locking Degree**:
### 1. 💡 Intelligent Trend Analysis
| Condition Combination | Size | Tag | Description |
| ------------------------------------------ | ------- | ----------------- | -------------------------------- |
| Price ≥90¢ + Weather Support + High Volume | **$10** | 🔥High Confidence | Triple confirmation, Heavy stake |
| Price ≥90¢ + Weather Support | **$7** | ⭐Mid Confidence | Double confirmation |
| Price ≥92¢ | **$5** | 📌Price Locked | Pure price locking |
| Other 85-91¢ | **$3** | 💡Probe | Minimum stake for probing |
The bot doesn't just show numbers; it performs a **Live vs. Forecast** analysis:
### Weather Support Logic
- **Peak Detection**: Determines if the daily high has likely already passed.
- **Atmospheric Physics**: Uses humidity and dew point to predict if the temperature will "stall" at night.
- **Volatility Alerts**: Flags high wind speeds that might cause rapid temperature swings.
- **Buy NO**: Open-Meteo predicted temperature is **outside** the option range (with ±2° tolerance).
- **Buy YES**: Open-Meteo predicted temperature **falls within** the option range.
### 2. ✈️ High-Fidelity Airport Data (METAR)
### Volume Detection
Directly connected to **NOAA Aviation Weather**, the bot fetches raw METAR data from major international airports.
- **High Volume**: Individual option volume ≥ $5,000.
- Automatic conversion from UTC to **City Local Time**.
- Real-time station observations (Temperature, Wind, Dew Point).
### 3. ⚡ Ultra-Fresh Data (Cache Busting)
Engineered to bypass ISP and proxy caches:
- Every request includes a **micro-timestamp token**.
- Forces weather servers (Open-Meteo/NOAA) to deliver fresh results instead of stale cached snapshots.
---
## 📢 Alerting Dimensions
## 🏗️ Architecture Note
### 1. 📂 City Alert Summaries (Push)
The project contains a legacy **Monitoring Engine** and **Paper Trading System** (located in `main.py`). These features are currently **deactivated** to prioritize high-speed on-demand weather reporting.
- **Optimization**: All anomalies for the same city are merged into a **single report** per scan cycle to prevent spamming.
- **Price Source**: Uses real **Ask price** (actual executable price), not mid price
- **Push Format**:
```
📍 Chicago Market Update
🕐 Local 08:30 | Forecast High:38°F
═══════════════════════
✈️ Airport Obs (KORD):
🌡️ 32.0°F | Wind:12kt
🕐 Observed: 14:00 UTC
⚡ 40-41°F (2026-02-07): Buy No 87¢ | Prediction:38°F [🛒 $10.0 🔥High Conf]
💡 Strategy Tips:
• Predicted temp 38.0°F falls within 40-41°F range, market aligns with model
```
### 2. ✈️ METAR Aviation Weather Data
For same-day settlement markets, the system fetches **METAR airport observation data** and displays real measurements:
```
✈️ Airport Obs (KORD):
🌡️ 12.0°F | Wind:15kt
🕐 Observed: 11:00 UTC
```
**ICAO Airport Code Mapping**:
| City | ICAO | Airport |
| ------------- | ---- | ---------------------------- |
| Seattle | KSEA | Seattle-Tacoma International |
| London | EGLC | London City Airport |
| Dallas | KDAL | Dallas Love Field |
| Miami | KMIA | Miami International |
| Atlanta | KATL | Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta |
| Chicago | KORD | O'Hare International |
| New York | KLGA | LaGuardia Airport |
| Seoul | RKSI | Incheon International |
| Ankara | LTAC | Esenboga Airport |
| Toronto | CYYZ | Pearson International |
| Wellington | NZWN | Wellington International |
| Buenos Aires | SAEZ | Ministro Pistarini |
**Data Source**: NOAA Aviation Weather Center (Free API, no key required)
### 3. ⚡ Price Alerts (Auto Paper Trade)
- **Trigger**: Buy Yes or Buy No price enters the **85¢-95¢** range.
- **Auto Action**: System executes a **$3-$10 Paper Trade** based on the dynamic position strategy.
- **Purpose**: High-probability / Near-settlement reminders.
### 4. 👀 Market Anomalies
- **Whale Inflow**: Large single trades (>$5,000) with imbalanced ratios.
- **Volume Spikes**: Sudden increase in volume (>2x historical std dev).
### 5. 📅 Daily PnL Summary
- **Trigger**: Triggered automatically around 23:55 (Beijing Time).
- **Content**: Summarizes daily floating PnL, balance changes, and win rate.
### 6. 🎯 Trading Signals (`/signal`)
Prioritizes markets with the **earliest settlement date**, sorted by opportunity value, returns **Top 5**:
```
🎯 Upcoming Settlement (2026-02-06)
43 active options
🔥 1. Dallas 76-77°F
💡 Prediction 80.7° above 77° → Buy NO ✓
📊 Buy No 94¢ | ⏳Near Lock
🔥 2. Atlanta 56-57°F
💡 Prediction 60.4° above 57° → Buy NO ✓
📊 Buy No 94¢ | ⏳Near Lock
```
**Lock Status**:
- 🔒Locked: Price ≥95¢
- ⏳Near Lock: Price 85-94¢
- 👀Watch: Price 70-84¢
- ⚖️Balanced: Price <70¢
---
## 📊 Paper Trading Report Format
Accessible via `/portfolio`. Reports are grouped by **Target Settlement Date**:
```
📊 Paper Trading Report
════════════════════
📈 【2026-02-06】 Subtotal: +2.45$
──────────────────
🟢 Chicago 40-41°F
NO 87¢→92¢ Pred:38 | +0.47$
🟢 Chicago 32-33°F
NO 94¢→98¢ Pred:38 | +0.12$
💰 Total Exposure PnL: +6.89$
📈 Historical Stats:
Trades: 18 | Win Rate: 100.0%
Total Cost: $90.00 | Total PnL: +12.50$ (+13.9%)
════════════════════
💳 Account Balance: $639.11
```
---
## 🛠️ Configuration (.env)
```bash
# Telegram Bot
TELEGRAM_BOT_TOKEN=your_bot_token
TELEGRAM_CHAT_ID=your_chat_id
# Polymarket API (Used for real-time prices & trade history)
POLYMARKET_API_KEY=your_api_key_here
# Proxy (Optional, remove for VPS deployment)
HTTPS_PROXY=http://127.0.0.1:7890
HTTP_PROXY=http://127.0.0.1:7890
```
## 🏗️ Project Architecture
This project is built on **py-clob-client** with REST API fallback:
- Primary: Uses `py-clob-client` SDK for market data, orderbook, and trading
- Fallback: Direct REST API calls (`/price`, `/book`) when SDK fails
- Core API wrapper: `src/data_collection/polymarket_api.py`
### Price Fetching
```python
# SDK method (primary)
price = clob_client.get_price(token_id, side="BUY")
# REST API fallback (when SDK fails)
resp = requests.get("https://clob.polymarket.com/price", params={
"token_id": token_id,
"side": "BUY"
})
```
## 📂 Data Files
| File | Description |
| --------------------------- | ----------------------------------------------- |
| `data/paper_positions.json` | Paper trading positions, balance, trade history |
| `data/pushed_signals.json` | Pushed signals record (anti-spam) |
| `data/active_signals.json` | Currently active trading signals |
| `data/all_markets.json` | Full market cache |
| `data/price_history.json` | Price history for trend calculation |
---
## 📋 Core Features
- ✅ **Smart Dynamic Positions**: Automatic adjustment ($3-$10) based on weather forecasts, volume, and locking degree.
- ✅ **Predicted Temp Tracking**: Records the Open-Meteo forecast at the time of purchase for retrospective analysis.
- ✅ **Smart Merged Push**: City-based alert aggregation for a clean interface.
- ✅ **Auto Paper Trading**: Built-in system for tracking performance within the 85-95¢ range.
- ✅ **High-Speed Price Sync**: Utilizes CLOB batch API for instant price updates without 404s.
- ✅ **Timezone Adaptation**: All timestamps are automatically adjusted to Beijing Time (UTC+8).
- ✅ **Smart Date Selection**: Automatically targets the earliest active market date.
- ✅ **Unit Sensitivity**: US markets use Fahrenheit (°F), others use Celsius (°C).
- ✅ **Data Persistence**: Local JSON storage ensures consistency after restarts.
---
## 🔄 VPS Update Instructions
```bash
# 1. Local update
git add . && git commit -m "update" && git push
# 2. VPS pull & restart
ssh root@VPS_IP "cd ~/PolyWeather && git pull && screen -S polyweather -X quit; screen -dmS polyweather python run.py"
```
- To re-enable monitoring: Uncomment `monitor_thread.start()` in `run.py`.
- Documentation for inactive features: See [MARKET_DISCOVERY.md](./MARKET_DISCOVERY.md) and [PAPER_TRADING_GUIDE.md](./PAPER_TRADING_GUIDE.md).