Archive probability snapshots and wire them into training

2026-03-20 21:30:52 +08:00
parent 03dcb4329b
commit 3196552c78
11 changed files with 1129 additions and 171 deletions
@@ -0,0 +1,45 @@
+from scripts.fit_probability_calibration import _extract_samples
+
+
+def test_extract_samples_prefers_snapshot_rows_for_same_city_day():
+    history = {
+        "ankara": {
+            "2026-03-19": {
+                "actual_high": 11.0,
+                "mu": 10.8,
+                "deb_prediction": 10.9,
+                "forecasts": {"ECMWF": 10.5, "GFS": 11.2},
+                "probability_features": {
+                    "ens_median": 10.7,
+                    "ensemble_spread": 0.8,
+                    "peak_status": "before",
+                },
+            }
+        }
+    }
+    snapshot_rows = [
+        {
+            "city": "ankara",
+            "date": "2026-03-19",
+            "timestamp": "2026-03-19T12:00:00+03:00",
+            "raw_mu": 11.2,
+            "raw_sigma": 1.1,
+            "deb_prediction": 11.0,
+            "ensemble": {"p10": 10.0, "median": 11.1, "p90": 12.2},
+            "multi_model": {"ECMWF": 10.5, "GFS": 11.2},
+            "max_so_far": 10.9,
+            "peak_status": "in_window",
+        }
+    ]
+
+    samples, filled = _extract_samples(
+        history,
+        settlement_history={},
+        snapshot_rows=snapshot_rows,
+    )
+
+    assert filled == 0
+    assert len(samples) == 1
+    assert samples[0]["sample_source"] == "snapshot"
+    assert samples[0]["raw_mu"] == 11.2
+    assert samples[0]["peak_flag"] == 0.5