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Archive probability snapshots and wire them into training

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This commit is contained in:
2569718930@qq.com
2026-03-20 21:30:52 +08:00
parent 03dcb4329b
commit 3196552c78
11 changed files with 1129 additions and 171 deletions
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artifacts/probability_calibration/default.json
+2 -2
View File
@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
{
"version": "emos-20260320130245",
"trained_at": "2026-03-20T13:02:45.903772+00:00",
"version": "emos-20260320132525",
"trained_at": "2026-03-20T13:25:25.836021+00:00",
"global": {
"mu": {
"intercept": -1.57406048,
artifacts/probability_calibration/evaluation_report.json
+60 -60
View File
@@ -8,239 +8,239 @@
"bucket_hit_rate": 0.695238
},
"emos": {
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"bucket_hit_rate": 0.666667
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},
"delta": {
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"mae": 0.001686,
"bucket_hit_rate": -0.028571
"crps": -0.093663,
"mae": 0.0,
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}
},
"by_city": {
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},
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},
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},
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},
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},
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"sao paulo": {
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"seattle": {
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},
"seoul": {
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},
"shanghai": {
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"singapore": {
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},
"taipei": {
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},
"tokyo": {
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"legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 0.5,
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},
"toronto": {
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"legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 0.6,
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},
"warsaw": {
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"emos_mean_crps": 1.545129,
"emos_mean_crps": 1.618875,
"legacy_mean_mae": 2.056667,
"emos_mean_mae": 1.942917,
"emos_mean_mae": 2.056667,
"legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 0.333333,
"emos_bucket_hit_rate": 0.333333
},
"wellington": {
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"emos_mean_crps": 0.264506,
"emos_mean_crps": 0.266349,
"legacy_mean_mae": 0.2,
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"emos_mean_mae": 0.2,
"legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 1.0,
"emos_bucket_hit_rate": 1.0
}
artifacts/probability_calibration/training_samples.json
+212 -105
View File
@@ -1,5 +1,7 @@
{
"sample_count": 105,
"snapshot_sample_count": 0,
"daily_record_sample_count": 105,
"filled_actual_from_history": 2,
"samples": [
{
@@ -12,7 +14,8 @@
"ens_median": 5.9,
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"max_so_far_gap": null,
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"sample_source": "daily_record"
},
{
"city": "ankara",
@@ -24,7 +27,8 @@
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"sample_source": "daily_record"
},
{
"city": "ankara",
@@ -36,7 +40,8 @@
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"sample_source": "daily_record"
},
{
"city": "ankara",
@@ -48,7 +53,8 @@
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},
{
"city": "ankara",
@@ -60,7 +66,8 @@
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},
{
"city": "ankara",
@@ -72,7 +79,8 @@
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"max_so_far_gap": null,
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"sample_source": "daily_record"
},
{
"city": "ankara",
@@ -84,7 +92,8 @@
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"sample_source": "daily_record"
},
{
"city": "london",
@@ -96,7 +105,8 @@
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"sample_source": "daily_record"
},
{
"city": "london",
@@ -108,7 +118,8 @@
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},
{
"city": "london",
@@ -120,7 +131,8 @@
"ens_median": 15.4,
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"sample_source": "daily_record"
},
{
"city": "london",
@@ -132,7 +144,8 @@
"ens_median": 13.3,
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},
{
"city": "london",
@@ -144,7 +157,8 @@
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},
{
"city": "london",
@@ -156,7 +170,8 @@
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},
{
"city": "new york",
@@ -168,7 +183,8 @@
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"sample_source": "daily_record"
},
{
"city": "new york",
@@ -180,7 +196,8 @@
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"sample_source": "daily_record"
},
{
"city": "new york",
@@ -192,7 +209,8 @@
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"sample_source": "daily_record"
},
{
"city": "new york",
@@ -204,7 +222,8 @@
"ens_median": 37.0,
"ensemble_spread": 2.25,
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"sample_source": "daily_record"
},
{
"city": "paris",
@@ -216,7 +235,8 @@
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"sample_source": "daily_record"
},
{
"city": "paris",
@@ -228,7 +248,8 @@
"ens_median": 16.2,
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"sample_source": "daily_record"
},
{
"city": "paris",
@@ -240,7 +261,8 @@
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"sample_source": "daily_record"
},
{
"city": "paris",
@@ -252,7 +274,8 @@
"ens_median": 15.3,
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"sample_source": "daily_record"
},
{
"city": "paris",
@@ -264,7 +287,8 @@
"ens_median": 13.1,
"ensemble_spread": 0.8499999999999996,
"max_so_far_gap": null,
"peak_flag": 0.0
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"sample_source": "daily_record"
},
{
"city": "paris",
@@ -276,7 +300,8 @@
"ens_median": 14.8,
"ensemble_spread": 0.9000000000000004,
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"sample_source": "daily_record"
},
{
"city": "paris",
@@ -288,7 +313,8 @@
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},
{
"city": "seoul",
@@ -300,7 +326,8 @@
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"sample_source": "daily_record"
},
{
"city": "seoul",
@@ -312,7 +339,8 @@
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"sample_source": "daily_record"
},
{
"city": "seoul",
@@ -324,7 +352,8 @@
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"sample_source": "daily_record"
},
{
"city": "seoul",
@@ -336,7 +365,8 @@
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"sample_source": "daily_record"
},
{
"city": "seoul",
@@ -348,7 +378,8 @@
"ens_median": 7.4,
"ensemble_spread": 0.7999999999999998,
"max_so_far_gap": null,
"peak_flag": 0.0
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"sample_source": "daily_record"
},
{
"city": "seoul",
@@ -360,7 +391,8 @@
"ens_median": 6.3,
"ensemble_spread": 1.7999999999999998,
"max_so_far_gap": null,
"peak_flag": 0.0
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"sample_source": "daily_record"
},
{
"city": "toronto",
@@ -372,7 +404,8 @@
"ens_median": 16.9,
"ensemble_spread": 2.8500000000000005,
"max_so_far_gap": null,
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"sample_source": "daily_record"
},
{
"city": "toronto",
@@ -384,7 +417,8 @@
"ens_median": 12.3,
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"sample_source": "daily_record"
},
{
"city": "toronto",
@@ -396,7 +430,8 @@
"ens_median": 17.6,
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"sample_source": "daily_record"
},
{
"city": "toronto",
@@ -408,7 +443,8 @@
"ens_median": -1.1,
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"sample_source": "daily_record"
},
{
"city": "toronto",
@@ -420,7 +456,8 @@
"ens_median": 6.3,
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"sample_source": "daily_record"
},
{
"city": "buenos aires",
@@ -432,7 +469,8 @@
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"ensemble_spread": 1.3999999999999986,
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"sample_source": "daily_record"
},
{
"city": "buenos aires",
@@ -444,7 +482,8 @@
"ens_median": 26.4,
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"max_so_far_gap": null,
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"sample_source": "daily_record"
},
{
"city": "buenos aires",
@@ -456,7 +495,8 @@
"ens_median": 26.2,
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},
{
"city": "buenos aires",
@@ -468,7 +508,8 @@
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},
{
"city": "buenos aires",
@@ -480,7 +521,8 @@
"ens_median": 27.9,
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"sample_source": "daily_record"
},
{
"city": "wellington",
@@ -492,7 +534,8 @@
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@@ -504,7 +547,8 @@
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@@ -516,7 +560,8 @@
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@@ -528,7 +573,8 @@
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@@ -540,7 +586,8 @@
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@@ -552,7 +599,8 @@
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@@ -564,7 +612,8 @@
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@@ -576,7 +625,8 @@
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@@ -588,7 +638,8 @@
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@@ -600,7 +651,8 @@
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@@ -612,7 +664,8 @@
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@@ -624,7 +677,8 @@
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@@ -636,7 +690,8 @@
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@@ -648,7 +703,8 @@
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@@ -660,7 +716,8 @@
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@@ -672,7 +729,8 @@
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@@ -684,7 +742,8 @@
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@@ -696,7 +755,8 @@
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@@ -708,7 +768,8 @@
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{
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@@ -720,7 +781,8 @@
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@@ -732,7 +794,8 @@
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@@ -744,7 +807,8 @@
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@@ -756,7 +820,8 @@
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@@ -768,7 +833,8 @@
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@@ -780,7 +846,8 @@
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@@ -792,7 +859,8 @@
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@@ -804,7 +872,8 @@
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@@ -816,7 +885,8 @@
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@@ -828,7 +898,8 @@
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{
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@@ -840,7 +911,8 @@
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{
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@@ -852,7 +924,8 @@
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@@ -864,7 +937,8 @@
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@@ -876,7 +950,8 @@
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{
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@@ -888,7 +963,8 @@
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@@ -900,7 +976,8 @@
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@@ -912,7 +989,8 @@
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@@ -924,7 +1002,8 @@
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@@ -936,7 +1015,8 @@
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@@ -948,7 +1028,8 @@
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@@ -960,7 +1041,8 @@
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@@ -972,7 +1054,8 @@
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@@ -984,7 +1067,8 @@
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{
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@@ -996,7 +1080,8 @@
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{
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@@ -1008,7 +1093,8 @@
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@@ -1020,7 +1106,8 @@
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@@ -1032,7 +1119,8 @@
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@@ -1044,7 +1132,8 @@
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@@ -1056,7 +1145,8 @@
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@@ -1068,7 +1158,8 @@
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{
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@@ -1080,7 +1171,8 @@
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@@ -1092,7 +1184,8 @@
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@@ -1104,7 +1197,8 @@
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{
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@@ -1116,7 +1210,8 @@
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@@ -1128,7 +1223,8 @@
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@@ -1140,7 +1236,8 @@
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{
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@@ -1152,7 +1249,8 @@
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{
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@@ -1164,7 +1262,8 @@
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{
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@@ -1176,7 +1275,8 @@
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{
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@@ -1188,7 +1288,8 @@
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{
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@@ -1200,7 +1301,8 @@
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{
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@@ -1212,7 +1314,8 @@
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{
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@@ -1224,7 +1327,8 @@
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{
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@@ -1236,7 +1340,8 @@
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{
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@@ -1248,7 +1353,8 @@
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{
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@@ -1260,7 +1366,8 @@
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}
]
}