diff --git a/frontend/components/dashboard/Dashboard.module.css b/frontend/components/dashboard/Dashboard.module.css
index 2bfe210c..704a0246 100644
--- a/frontend/components/dashboard/Dashboard.module.css
+++ b/frontend/components/dashboard/Dashboard.module.css
@@ -1075,6 +1075,37 @@
   border: 1px solid rgba(251, 113, 133, 0.26);
 }
 
+.root :global(.prob-distribution-panel) {
+  display: grid;
+  gap: 8px;
+  padding: 10px;
+  border: 1px solid rgba(148, 163, 184, 0.14);
+  border-radius: 8px;
+  background: rgba(15, 23, 42, 0.24);
+}
+
+.root :global(.prob-distribution-head) {
+  display: flex;
+  align-items: center;
+  justify-content: space-between;
+  gap: 10px;
+  margin-bottom: 2px;
+}
+
+.root :global(.prob-distribution-head span) {
+  color: var(--cyan);
+  font-size: 11px;
+  font-weight: 900;
+  text-transform: uppercase;
+  letter-spacing: 0.04em;
+}
+
+.root :global(.prob-distribution-head em) {
+  color: var(--text-muted);
+  font-size: 11px;
+  font-style: normal;
+}
+
 .root :global(.prob-price-card) {
   display: grid;
   gap: 8px;
diff --git a/frontend/components/dashboard/PanelSections.tsx b/frontend/components/dashboard/PanelSections.tsx
index 17733541..be9d93cf 100644
--- a/frontend/components/dashboard/PanelSections.tsx
+++ b/frontend/components/dashboard/PanelSections.tsx
@@ -1125,9 +1125,70 @@ export function ProbabilityDistribution({
                 : `市场仅作参考：最高交易温度桶 ${topMarketBucketText}`
               : locale === "en-US"
                 ? `Market reference only: this bucket ${marketYesText}`
-                : `市场仅作参考：该温度桶 ${marketYesText}`}
+              : `市场仅作参考：该温度桶 ${marketYesText}`}
           </div>
         )}
+        <div className="prob-distribution-panel">
+          <div className="prob-distribution-head">
+            <span>
+              {locale === "en-US"
+                ? "EMOS probability distribution"
+                : "EMOS 概率分布"}
+            </span>
+            <em>
+              {marketContractRows.length > 0
+                ? locale === "en-US"
+                  ? "aligned to market contract buckets"
+                  : "已按市场合约桶聚合"
+                : locale === "en-US"
+                  ? "calibrated temperature buckets"
+                  : "校准后的温度桶"}
+            </em>
+          </div>
+          {probabilityRows.length === 0 ? (
+            <EmptyState text={t("section.noProb")} />
+          ) : (
+            probabilityRows.map((row, index) => {
+              const probability = Math.round(Number(row.probability || 0) * 100);
+              const rowMarketBucket = row.marketBucket;
+              const rowMarketPrice =
+                rowMarketBucket?.market_price ?? rowMarketBucket?.yes_buy ?? null;
+              const yesPriceText = toPriceCents(rowMarketPrice);
+              const marketTagFinal = rowMarketBucket
+                ? locale === "en-US"
+                  ? `Market ref: ${yesPriceText || "--"}`
+                  : `市场参考: ${yesPriceText || "--"}`
+                : null;
+
+              return (
+                <div
+                  key={`${row.key || index}`}
+                  className="prob-row"
+                >
+                  <div className="prob-label">{row.label}</div>
+                  <div className="prob-bar-track">
+                    <div
+                      className={clsx("prob-bar-fill", `rank-${index}`)}
+                      style={{ width: `${Math.max(probability, 8)}%` }}
+                    >
+                      {probability}%
+                    </div>
+                  </div>
+                  {marketTagFinal && (
+                    <div
+                      className={clsx(
+                        "prob-market-inline",
+                        rowMarketBucket ? "yes" : "no",
+                      )}
+                    >
+                      {marketTagFinal}
+                    </div>
+                  )}
+                </div>
+              );
+            })
+          )}
+        </div>
         {hasPriceAnalysis && (
           <div className="prob-price-card">
             <div className="prob-price-head">
@@ -1206,49 +1267,6 @@ export function ProbabilityDistribution({
             </em>
           </div>
         )}
-        {probabilityRows.length === 0 ? (
-          <EmptyState text={t("section.noProb")} />
-        ) : (
-          probabilityRows.map((row, index) => {
-            const probability = Math.round(Number(row.probability || 0) * 100);
-            const rowMarketBucket = row.marketBucket;
-            const rowMarketPrice =
-              rowMarketBucket?.market_price ?? rowMarketBucket?.yes_buy ?? null;
-            const yesPriceText = toPriceCents(rowMarketPrice);
-            const marketTagFinal = rowMarketBucket
-              ? locale === "en-US"
-                ? `Market ref: ${yesPriceText || "--"}`
-                : `市场参考: ${yesPriceText || "--"}`
-              : null;
-
-            return (
-              <div
-                key={`${row.key || index}`}
-                className="prob-row"
-              >
-                <div className="prob-label">{row.label}</div>
-                <div className="prob-bar-track">
-                  <div
-                    className={clsx("prob-bar-fill", `rank-${index}`)}
-                    style={{ width: `${Math.max(probability, 8)}%` }}
-                  >
-                    {probability}%
-                  </div>
-                </div>
-                {marketTagFinal && (
-                  <div
-                    className={clsx(
-                      "prob-market-inline",
-                      rowMarketBucket ? "yes" : "no",
-                    )}
-                  >
-                    {marketTagFinal}
-                  </div>
-                )}
-              </div>
-            );
-          })
-        )}
       </div>
     </section>
   );