diff --git a/.github/workflows/ci.yml b/.github/workflows/ci.yml new file mode 100644 index 00000000..c65a79da --- /dev/null +++ b/.github/workflows/ci.yml @@ -0,0 +1,61 @@ +name: CI + +on: + push: + branches: + - main + pull_request: + +jobs: + python-quality: + runs-on: ubuntu-latest + steps: + - name: Checkout + uses: actions/checkout@v4 + + - name: Set up Python + uses: actions/setup-python@v5 + with: + python-version: "3.11" + + - name: Install dependencies + run: | + python -m pip install --upgrade pip + pip install -r requirements.txt -r requirements-dev.txt + + - name: Ruff + run: python -m ruff check . + + - name: Pytest + run: python -m pytest + + frontend-quality: + runs-on: ubuntu-latest + defaults: + run: + working-directory: frontend + steps: + - name: Checkout + uses: actions/checkout@v4 + + - name: Set up Node + uses: actions/setup-node@v4 + with: + node-version: "20" + cache: "npm" + cache-dependency-path: frontend/package-lock.json + + - name: Install dependencies + run: npm ci + + - name: Build + run: npm run build + + docker-build: + runs-on: ubuntu-latest + steps: + - name: Checkout + uses: actions/checkout@v4 + + - name: Build Docker image + run: docker build -t polyweather-ci . diff --git a/.gitignore b/.gitignore index 8e70c05a..8be5333a 100644 --- a/.gitignore +++ b/.gitignore @@ -33,6 +33,7 @@ Thumbs.db frontend/node_modules/ frontend/.next/ frontend/.vercel/ +frontend/*.tsbuildinfo .npm-cache/ .env.local diff --git a/artifacts/probability_calibration/default.json b/artifacts/probability_calibration/default.json new file mode 100644 index 00000000..0c5fdb55 --- /dev/null +++ b/artifacts/probability_calibration/default.json @@ -0,0 +1,161 @@ +{ + "version": "emos-20260320123829", + "trained_at": "2026-03-20T12:38:29.985991+00:00", + "global": { + "mu": { + "intercept": -1.57406048, + "raw_mu_coef": 2.80583627, + "deb_coef": -0.06819634, + "ens_median_coef": -1.81560215, + "max_so_far_gap_coef": 0.0 + }, + "sigma": { + "intercept": 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"city": "dallas", + "date": "2026-03-07", + "actual_high": 75.0, + "raw_mu": 75.0, + "raw_sigma": 2.1499999999999986, + "deb_prediction": 72.9, + "ens_median": 72.7, + "ensemble_spread": 2.1499999999999986, + "max_so_far_gap": null, + "peak_flag": 0.0 + }, + { + "city": "dallas", + "date": "2026-03-08", + "actual_high": 75.0, + "raw_mu": 75.0, + "raw_sigma": 6.200000000000003, + "deb_prediction": 75.1, + "ens_median": 71.5, + "ensemble_spread": 6.200000000000003, + "max_so_far_gap": null, + "peak_flag": 0.0 + }, + { + "city": "dallas", + "date": "2026-03-09", + "actual_high": 84.0, + "raw_mu": 84.0, + "raw_sigma": 3.8500000000000014, + "deb_prediction": 82.9, + "ens_median": 81.0, + "ensemble_spread": 3.8500000000000014, + "max_so_far_gap": null, + "peak_flag": 0.0 + }, + { + "city": "dallas", + "date": "2026-03-18", + "actual_high": 73.9, + "raw_mu": 73.9, + "raw_sigma": 9.299999999999997, + "deb_prediction": 75.2, + "ens_median": 74.4, + "ensemble_spread": 9.299999999999997, + "max_so_far_gap": null, + "peak_flag": 0.0 + }, + { + "city": "miami", + "date": "2026-03-07", + "actual_high": 82.0, + "raw_mu": 82.0, + "raw_sigma": 1.3999999999999986, + "deb_prediction": 81.8, + "ens_median": 81.6, + "ensemble_spread": 1.3999999999999986, + "max_so_far_gap": null, + "peak_flag": 0.0 + }, + { + "city": "miami", + "date": "2026-03-08", + "actual_high": 84.0, + "raw_mu": 84.0, + "raw_sigma": 1.5500000000000043, + "deb_prediction": 83.0, + "ens_median": 82.7, + "ensemble_spread": 1.5500000000000043, + "max_so_far_gap": null, + "peak_flag": 0.0 + }, + { + "city": "miami", + "date": "2026-03-09", + "actual_high": 84.0, + "raw_mu": 84.0, + "raw_sigma": 1.5499999999999972, + "deb_prediction": 84.0, + "ens_median": 83.9, + "ensemble_spread": 1.5499999999999972, + "max_so_far_gap": null, + "peak_flag": 0.0 + }, + { + "city": "miami", + "date": "2026-03-18", + "actual_high": 59.0, + "raw_mu": 70.04, + "raw_sigma": 2.8999999999999986, + "deb_prediction": 69.1, + "ens_median": 70.4, + "ensemble_spread": 2.8999999999999986, + "max_so_far_gap": null, + "peak_flag": 0.0 + }, + { + "city": "miami", + "date": "2026-03-19", + "actual_high": 24.6, + "raw_mu": 73.91, + "raw_sigma": 2.5500000000000043, + "deb_prediction": 74.2, + "ens_median": 74.0, + "ensemble_spread": 2.5500000000000043, + "max_so_far_gap": null, + "peak_flag": 0.0 + }, + { + "city": "atlanta", + "date": "2026-03-07", + "actual_high": 82.0, + "raw_mu": 82.0, + "raw_sigma": 4.600000000000001, + "deb_prediction": 78.3, + "ens_median": 79.7, + "ensemble_spread": 4.600000000000001, + "max_so_far_gap": null, + "peak_flag": 0.0 + }, + { + "city": "atlanta", + "date": "2026-03-08", + "actual_high": 69.1, + "raw_mu": 69.1, + "raw_sigma": 5.899999999999999, + "deb_prediction": 68.3, + "ens_median": 67.7, + "ensemble_spread": 5.899999999999999, + "max_so_far_gap": null, + "peak_flag": 0.0 + }, + { + "city": "atlanta", + "date": "2026-03-09", + "actual_high": 77.0, + "raw_mu": 77.0, + "raw_sigma": 2.6000000000000014, + "deb_prediction": 76.7, + "ens_median": 77.4, + "ensemble_spread": 2.6000000000000014, + "max_so_far_gap": null, + "peak_flag": 0.0 + }, + { + "city": "atlanta", + "date": "2026-03-18", + "actual_high": 37.0, + "raw_mu": 54.06, + "raw_sigma": 4.0, + "deb_prediction": 52.5, + "ens_median": 52.2, + "ensemble_spread": 4.0, + "max_so_far_gap": null, + "peak_flag": 0.0 + }, + { + "city": "atlanta", + "date": "2026-03-19", + "actual_high": 18.6, + "raw_mu": 65.57, + "raw_sigma": 1.5500000000000007, + "deb_prediction": 65.7, + "ens_median": 65.9, + "ensemble_spread": 1.5500000000000007, + "max_so_far_gap": null, + "peak_flag": 0.0 + }, + { + "city": "seattle", + "date": "2026-03-07", + "actual_high": 54.0, + "raw_mu": 54.0, + "raw_sigma": 1.3999999999999986, + "deb_prediction": 52.5, + "ens_median": 52.8, + "ensemble_spread": 1.3999999999999986, + "max_so_far_gap": null, + "peak_flag": 0.0 + }, + { + "city": "seattle", + "date": "2026-03-08", + "actual_high": 53.1, + "raw_mu": 53.1, + "raw_sigma": 4.350000000000001, + "deb_prediction": 51.1, + "ens_median": 50.9, + "ensemble_spread": 4.350000000000001, + "max_so_far_gap": null, + "peak_flag": 0.0 + }, + { + "city": "seattle", + "date": "2026-03-09", + "actual_high": 45.0, + "raw_mu": 45.0, + "raw_sigma": 2.0, + "deb_prediction": 44.4, + "ens_median": 45.1, + "ensemble_spread": 2.0, + "max_so_far_gap": null, + "peak_flag": 0.0 + }, + { + "city": "seattle", + "date": "2026-03-18", + "actual_high": 55.9, + "raw_mu": 55.9, + "raw_sigma": 1.3500000000000014, + "deb_prediction": 55.8, + "ens_median": 55.9, + "ensemble_spread": 1.3500000000000014, + "max_so_far_gap": null, + "peak_flag": 0.0 + }, + { + "city": "lucknow", + "date": "2026-03-08", + "actual_high": 32.0, + "raw_mu": 32.0, + "raw_sigma": 1.8500000000000014, + "deb_prediction": 33.4, + "ens_median": 33.9, + "ensemble_spread": 1.8500000000000014, + "max_so_far_gap": null, + "peak_flag": 0.0 + }, + { + "city": "lucknow", + "date": "2026-03-09", + "actual_high": 34.0, + "raw_mu": 34.0, + "raw_sigma": 2.0, + "deb_prediction": 34.0, + "ens_median": 34.6, + "ensemble_spread": 2.0, + "max_so_far_gap": null, + "peak_flag": 0.0 + }, + { + "city": "lucknow", + "date": "2026-03-18", + "actual_high": 34.0, + "raw_mu": 35.11, + "raw_sigma": 1.3000000000000007, + "deb_prediction": 34.3, + "ens_median": 34.6, + "ensemble_spread": 1.3000000000000007, + "max_so_far_gap": null, + "peak_flag": 0.0 + }, + { + "city": "lucknow", + "date": "2026-03-19", + "actual_high": 30.0, + "raw_mu": 35.3, + "raw_sigma": 1.75, + "deb_prediction": 34.5, + "ens_median": 34.7, + "ensemble_spread": 1.75, + "max_so_far_gap": null, + "peak_flag": 0.0 + }, + { + "city": "munich", + "date": "2026-03-07", + "actual_high": 16.0, + "raw_mu": 16.0, + "raw_sigma": 1.6000000000000005, + "deb_prediction": 14.5, + "ens_median": 15.1, + "ensemble_spread": 1.6000000000000005, + "max_so_far_gap": null, + "peak_flag": 0.0 + }, + { + "city": "munich", + "date": "2026-03-08", + "actual_high": 14.0, + "raw_mu": 14.0, + "raw_sigma": 0.9000000000000004, + "deb_prediction": 14.0, + "ens_median": 14.3, + "ensemble_spread": 0.9000000000000004, + "max_so_far_gap": null, + "peak_flag": 0.0 + }, + { + "city": "munich", + "date": "2026-03-09", + "actual_high": 15.0, + "raw_mu": 15.0, + "raw_sigma": 0.8999999999999995, + "deb_prediction": 14.2, + "ens_median": 14.5, + "ensemble_spread": 0.8999999999999995, + "max_so_far_gap": null, + "peak_flag": 0.0 + }, + { + "city": "munich", + "date": "2026-03-10", + "actual_high": 4.0, + "raw_mu": 15.58, + "raw_sigma": 1.2999999999999998, + "deb_prediction": 15.6, + "ens_median": 15.7, + "ensemble_spread": 1.2999999999999998, + "max_so_far_gap": null, + "peak_flag": 0.0 + }, + { + "city": "munich", + "date": "2026-03-18", + "actual_high": 10.0, + "raw_mu": 10.66, + "raw_sigma": 0.6, + "deb_prediction": 10.6, + "ens_median": 10.6, + "ensemble_spread": 0.6, + "max_so_far_gap": null, + "peak_flag": 0.0 + }, + { + "city": "munich", + "date": "2026-03-19", + "actual_high": 5.0, + "raw_mu": 11.62, + "raw_sigma": 1.3000000000000007, + "deb_prediction": 11.5, + "ens_median": 11.8, + "ensemble_spread": 1.3000000000000007, + "max_so_far_gap": null, + "peak_flag": 0.0 + }, + { + "city": "hong kong", + "date": "2026-03-17", + "actual_high": 24.0, + "raw_mu": 24.0, + "raw_sigma": 1.9000000000000004, + "deb_prediction": 23.1, + "ens_median": 23.1, + "ensemble_spread": 1.9000000000000004, + "max_so_far_gap": null, + "peak_flag": 0.0 + }, + { + "city": "hong kong", + "date": "2026-03-18", + "actual_high": 27.8, + "raw_mu": 27.8, + "raw_sigma": 0.6, + "deb_prediction": 24.5, + "ens_median": 24.9, + "ensemble_spread": 0.6, + "max_so_far_gap": null, + "peak_flag": 0.0 + }, + { + "city": "hong kong", + "date": "2026-03-19", + "actual_high": 27.3, + "raw_mu": 27.6, + "raw_sigma": 0.6, + "deb_prediction": 24.9, + "ens_median": 25.0, + "ensemble_spread": 0.6, + "max_so_far_gap": null, + "peak_flag": 0.0 + }, + { + "city": "taipei", + "date": "2026-03-17", + "actual_high": 26.7, + "raw_mu": 26.7, + "raw_sigma": 2.25, + "deb_prediction": 24.9, + "ens_median": 25.4, + "ensemble_spread": 2.25, + "max_so_far_gap": null, + "peak_flag": 0.0 + }, + { + "city": "taipei", + "date": "2026-03-18", + "actual_high": 29.0, + "raw_mu": 29.0, + "raw_sigma": 1.0500000000000007, + "deb_prediction": 27.2, + "ens_median": 27.5, + "ensemble_spread": 1.0500000000000007, + "max_so_far_gap": null, + "peak_flag": 0.0 + }, + { + "city": "taipei", + "date": "2026-03-19", + "actual_high": 21.4, + "raw_mu": 21.7, + "raw_sigma": 1.1500000000000004, + "deb_prediction": 21.5, + "ens_median": 21.3, + "ensemble_spread": 1.1500000000000004, + "max_so_far_gap": null, + "peak_flag": 0.0 + }, + { + "city": "milan", + "date": "2026-03-17", + "actual_high": 17.0, + "raw_mu": 17.3, + "raw_sigma": 9.1, + "deb_prediction": 12.5, + "ens_median": 15.1, + "ensemble_spread": 9.1, + "max_so_far_gap": null, + "peak_flag": 0.0 + }, + { + "city": "milan", + "date": "2026-03-18", + "actual_high": 14.0, + "raw_mu": 14.3, + "raw_sigma": 0.6, + "deb_prediction": 13.7, + "ens_median": 13.8, + "ensemble_spread": 0.6, + "max_so_far_gap": null, + "peak_flag": 0.0 + }, + { + "city": "milan", + "date": "2026-03-19", + "actual_high": 5.0, + "raw_mu": 16.58, + "raw_sigma": 1.25, + "deb_prediction": 16.9, + "ens_median": 17.0, + "ensemble_spread": 1.25, + "max_so_far_gap": null, + "peak_flag": 0.0 + }, + { + "city": "warsaw", + "date": "2026-03-17", + "actual_high": 11.0, + "raw_mu": 11.3, + "raw_sigma": 0.6499999999999995, + "deb_prediction": 10.4, + "ens_median": 10.5, + "ensemble_spread": 0.6499999999999995, + "max_so_far_gap": null, + "peak_flag": 0.0 + }, + { + "city": "warsaw", + "date": "2026-03-18", + "actual_high": 13.0, + "raw_mu": 13.84, + "raw_sigma": 1.4000000000000004, + "deb_prediction": 13.6, + "ens_median": 14.2, + "ensemble_spread": 1.4000000000000004, + "max_so_far_gap": null, + "peak_flag": 0.0 + }, + { + "city": "warsaw", + "date": "2026-03-19", + "actual_high": 7.0, + "raw_mu": 12.03, + "raw_sigma": 1.5999999999999996, + "deb_prediction": 11.8, + "ens_median": 12.3, + "ensemble_spread": 1.5999999999999996, + "max_so_far_gap": null, + "peak_flag": 0.0 + }, + { + "city": "singapore", + "date": "2026-03-18", + "actual_high": 32.0, + "raw_mu": 32.0, + "raw_sigma": 0.9500000000000011, + "deb_prediction": 30.2, + "ens_median": 30.1, + "ensemble_spread": 0.9500000000000011, + "max_so_far_gap": null, + "peak_flag": 0.0 + }, + { + "city": "singapore", + "date": "2026-03-19", + "actual_high": 32.0, + "raw_mu": 32.3, + "raw_sigma": 1.3499999999999996, + "deb_prediction": 31.5, + "ens_median": 32.1, + "ensemble_spread": 1.3499999999999996, + "max_so_far_gap": null, + "peak_flag": 0.0 + }, + { + "city": "shanghai", + "date": "2026-03-18", + "actual_high": 13.0, + "raw_mu": 13.0, + "raw_sigma": 1.1500000000000004, + "deb_prediction": 13.2, + "ens_median": 13.0, + "ensemble_spread": 1.1500000000000004, + "max_so_far_gap": null, + "peak_flag": 0.0 + }, + { + "city": "shanghai", + "date": "2026-03-19", + "actual_high": 12.0, + "raw_mu": 12.3, + "raw_sigma": 0.7999999999999998, + "deb_prediction": 10.7, + "ens_median": 11.2, + "ensemble_spread": 0.7999999999999998, + "max_so_far_gap": null, + "peak_flag": 0.0 + }, + { + "city": "tokyo", + "date": "2026-03-18", + "actual_high": 17.0, + "raw_mu": 17.0, + "raw_sigma": 1.5499999999999998, + "deb_prediction": 15.4, + "ens_median": 15.8, + "ensemble_spread": 1.5499999999999998, + "max_so_far_gap": null, + "peak_flag": 0.0 + }, + { + "city": "tokyo", + "date": "2026-03-19", + "actual_high": 16.0, + "raw_mu": 16.5, + "raw_sigma": 2.0999999999999996, + "deb_prediction": 17.8, + "ens_median": 18.5, + "ensemble_spread": 2.0999999999999996, + "max_so_far_gap": null, + "peak_flag": 0.0 + }, + { + "city": "tel aviv", + "date": "2026-03-18", + "actual_high": 30.0, + "raw_mu": 30.3, + "raw_sigma": 2.1500000000000004, + "deb_prediction": 29.0, + "ens_median": 28.9, + "ensemble_spread": 2.1500000000000004, + "max_so_far_gap": null, + "peak_flag": 0.0 + }, + { + "city": "tel aviv", + "date": "2026-03-19", + "actual_high": 21.0, + "raw_mu": 21.3, + "raw_sigma": 1.5, + "deb_prediction": 20.7, + "ens_median": 21.1, + "ensemble_spread": 1.5, + "max_so_far_gap": null, + "peak_flag": 0.0 + }, + { + "city": "madrid", + "date": "2026-03-18", + "actual_high": 14.0, + "raw_mu": 18.43, + "raw_sigma": 1.8499999999999996, + "deb_prediction": 18.3, + "ens_median": 18.7, + "ensemble_spread": 1.8499999999999996, + "max_so_far_gap": null, + "peak_flag": 0.0 + }, + { + "city": "madrid", + "date": "2026-03-19", + "actual_high": 8.0, + "raw_mu": 18.23, + "raw_sigma": 1.8999999999999995, + "deb_prediction": 18.4, + "ens_median": 18.8, + "ensemble_spread": 1.8999999999999995, + "max_so_far_gap": null, + "peak_flag": 0.0 + } + ] +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/pytest.ini b/pytest.ini new file mode 100644 index 00000000..5ee64771 --- /dev/null +++ b/pytest.ini @@ -0,0 +1,2 @@ +[pytest] +testpaths = tests diff --git a/requirements-dev.txt b/requirements-dev.txt new file mode 100644 index 00000000..71cc5395 --- /dev/null +++ b/requirements-dev.txt @@ -0,0 +1,2 @@ +pytest +ruff diff --git a/scripts/backfill_historical_weather.py b/scripts/backfill_historical_weather.py new file mode 100644 index 00000000..080054f4 --- /dev/null +++ b/scripts/backfill_historical_weather.py @@ -0,0 +1,210 @@ +import argparse +import csv +import os +import sys +import time +from concurrent.futures import ThreadPoolExecutor, as_completed +from datetime import date, timedelta +from typing import Dict, Iterable, Tuple + +import requests + +PROJECT_ROOT = os.path.dirname(os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__))) +if PROJECT_ROOT not in sys.path: + sys.path.insert(0, PROJECT_ROOT) + +from src.data_collection.city_registry import CITY_REGISTRY # noqa: E402 + + +HOURLY_FIELDS = ( + "temperature_2m", + "relative_humidity_2m", + "wind_speed_10m", + "wind_direction_10m", + "cloud_cover", + "shortwave_radiation", + "precipitation", + "surface_pressure", +) + + +def _city_output_path(output_dir: str, city_name: str) -> str: + filename = f"{city_name.replace(' ', '_').lower()}_historical.csv" + return os.path.join(output_dir, filename) + + +def _fetch_city_history( + city_name: str, + city_info: Dict[str, object], + output_dir: str, + start_date: str, + end_date: str, + session: requests.Session, + overwrite: bool = False, + max_retries: int = 4, +) -> Tuple[str, str]: + output_path = _city_output_path(output_dir, city_name) + if os.path.exists(output_path) and not overwrite: + return city_name, "skipped_existing" + + lat = city_info["lat"] + lon = city_info["lon"] + url = ( + "https://archive-api.open-meteo.com/v1/archive" + f"?latitude={lat}&longitude={lon}" + f"&start_date={start_date}&end_date={end_date}" + f"&hourly={','.join(HOURLY_FIELDS)}" + "&timezone=auto" + ) + last_error = None + payload = None + for attempt in range(max_retries + 1): + try: + response = session.get(url, timeout=90) + response.raise_for_status() + payload = response.json() + break + except requests.HTTPError as exc: + last_error = exc + response = getattr(exc, "response", None) + status_code = response.status_code if response is not None else None + if status_code == 429 and attempt < max_retries: + retry_after = 0 + if response is not None: + try: + retry_after = int(response.headers.get("Retry-After") or "0") + except Exception: + retry_after = 0 + sleep_sec = retry_after if retry_after > 0 else min(90, 5 * (attempt + 1)) + time.sleep(sleep_sec) + continue + raise + except requests.RequestException as exc: + last_error = exc + if attempt < max_retries: + time.sleep(min(30, 3 * (attempt + 1))) + continue + raise + + if payload is None: + raise RuntimeError(f"failed to fetch {city_name}: {last_error}") + + hourly = payload.get("hourly") or {} + times = hourly.get("time") or [] + if not times: + raise RuntimeError(f"missing hourly data for {city_name}") + + fieldnames = ["time", *HOURLY_FIELDS] + rows = [] + for idx, ts in enumerate(times): + row = {"time": ts} + for field in HOURLY_FIELDS: + values = hourly.get(field) or [] + row[field] = values[idx] if idx < len(values) else None + rows.append(row) + + os.makedirs(output_dir, exist_ok=True) + with open(output_path, "w", encoding="utf-8", newline="") as fh: + writer = csv.DictWriter(fh, fieldnames=fieldnames) + writer.writeheader() + writer.writerows(rows) + return city_name, f"downloaded:{len(rows)}" + + +def _iter_target_cities(selected: Iterable[str]) -> Iterable[Tuple[str, Dict[str, object]]]: + if not selected: + for city_name, city_info in sorted(CITY_REGISTRY.items()): + yield city_name, city_info + return + + normalized = {str(city).strip().lower() for city in selected if str(city).strip()} + for city_name, city_info in sorted(CITY_REGISTRY.items()): + if city_name in normalized: + yield city_name, city_info + + +def main(): + parser = argparse.ArgumentParser(description="Backfill historical Open-Meteo CSVs for PolyWeather cities.") + parser.add_argument( + "--output-dir", + default=os.path.join(PROJECT_ROOT, "data", "historical"), + help="Output directory for per-city historical CSV files.", + ) + parser.add_argument( + "--start-date", + default="2023-01-01", + help="Archive start date in YYYY-MM-DD.", + ) + parser.add_argument( + "--end-date", + default=(date.today() - timedelta(days=1)).strftime("%Y-%m-%d"), + help="Archive end date in YYYY-MM-DD.", + ) + parser.add_argument( + "--cities", + nargs="*", + default=[], + help="Optional subset of city registry keys to backfill.", + ) + parser.add_argument( + "--overwrite", + action="store_true", + help="Re-download existing CSV files instead of skipping them.", + ) + parser.add_argument( + "--workers", + type=int, + default=4, + help="Maximum concurrent download workers.", + ) + args = parser.parse_args() + + cities = list(_iter_target_cities(args.cities)) + if not cities: + raise SystemExit("no matching cities found") + + session = requests.Session() + session.headers.update({"User-Agent": "PolyWeather Historical Backfill/1.0"}) + + results = [] + with ThreadPoolExecutor(max_workers=max(1, args.workers)) as executor: + futures = { + executor.submit( + _fetch_city_history, + city_name, + city_info, + args.output_dir, + args.start_date, + args.end_date, + session, + args.overwrite, + ): city_name + for city_name, city_info in cities + } + for future in as_completed(futures): + city_name = futures[future] + try: + _, status = future.result() + print(f"{city_name}: {status}") + results.append((city_name, status)) + except Exception as exc: + print(f"{city_name}: error:{exc}") + results.append((city_name, f"error:{exc}")) + time.sleep(0.1) + + downloaded = sum(1 for _, status in results if status.startswith("downloaded:")) + skipped = sum(1 for _, status in results if status == "skipped_existing") + failed = [city for city, status in results if status.startswith("error:")] + print( + "summary downloaded={downloaded} skipped={skipped} failed={failed}".format( + downloaded=downloaded, + skipped=skipped, + failed=len(failed), + ) + ) + if failed: + print("failed_cities=" + ",".join(sorted(failed))) + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + main() diff --git a/scripts/backfill_probability_shadow_history.py b/scripts/backfill_probability_shadow_history.py new file mode 100644 index 00000000..e183865c --- /dev/null +++ b/scripts/backfill_probability_shadow_history.py @@ -0,0 +1,152 @@ +import argparse +import json +import os +import sys + +PROJECT_ROOT = os.path.dirname(os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__))) +if PROJECT_ROOT not in sys.path: + sys.path.insert(0, PROJECT_ROOT) + +from src.analysis.deb_algorithm import load_history, save_history # noqa: E402 +from src.analysis.probability_calibration import ( # noqa: E402 + ENGINE_MODE_EMOS_SHADOW, + apply_probability_calibration, + build_probability_features, +) + + +def _sample_to_features(sample): + peak_flag = sample.get("peak_flag") + if peak_flag == 1.0: + peak_status = "past" + elif peak_flag == 0.5: + peak_status = "in_window" + else: + peak_status = "before" + return build_probability_features( + city_name=sample.get("city") or "", + raw_mu=sample.get("raw_mu"), + raw_sigma=sample.get("raw_sigma"), + deb_prediction=sample.get("deb_prediction"), + ens_data={ + "median": sample.get("ens_median"), + "p10": None, + "p90": None, + }, + current_forecasts={}, + max_so_far=None, + peak_status=peak_status, + local_hour_frac=None, + ) + + +def main(): + parser = argparse.ArgumentParser(description="Backfill shadow probability snapshots into daily records.") + parser.add_argument( + "--history-file", + default=os.path.join(PROJECT_ROOT, "data", "daily_records.json"), + ) + parser.add_argument( + "--training-samples", + default=os.path.join( + PROJECT_ROOT, + "artifacts", + "probability_calibration", + "training_samples.json", + ), + ) + parser.add_argument( + "--calibration-file", + default=os.path.join( + PROJECT_ROOT, + "artifacts", + "probability_calibration", + "default.json", + ), + ) + args = parser.parse_args() + + history = load_history(args.history_file) + with open(args.training_samples, "r", encoding="utf-8") as fh: + training_payload = json.load(fh) + + updated = 0 + touched = 0 + + for sample in training_payload.get("samples") or []: + city = str(sample.get("city") or "").strip().lower() + date_str = str(sample.get("date") or "").strip() + if not city or not date_str: + continue + record = ((history.get(city) or {}).get(date_str) or {}) + if not isinstance(record, dict) or not record: + continue + + legacy_distribution = [ + {"value": row.get("v"), "probability": row.get("p")} + for row in (record.get("prob_snapshot") or []) + if isinstance(row, dict) and row.get("v") is not None + ] + if not legacy_distribution: + continue + + calibration = apply_probability_calibration( + city_name=city, + temp_symbol="°F" if city in {"atlanta", "chicago", "dallas", "miami", "new york", "seattle"} else "°C", + raw_mu=sample.get("raw_mu"), + raw_sigma=sample.get("raw_sigma"), + max_so_far=None, + legacy_distribution=legacy_distribution, + features=_sample_to_features(sample), + calibration_path=args.calibration_file, + mode=ENGINE_MODE_EMOS_SHADOW, + ) + + shadow_distribution = calibration.get("shadow_distribution") or [] + compact_shadow = [ + { + "v": int(row.get("value")), + "p": round(float(row.get("probability") or 0.0), 3), + } + for row in shadow_distribution[:4] + if row.get("value") is not None + ] + compact_calibration = { + "mode": calibration.get("mode"), + "engine": calibration.get("engine"), + "version": calibration.get("calibration_version"), + "source": calibration.get("calibration_source"), + "raw_mu": calibration.get("raw_mu"), + "raw_sigma": calibration.get("raw_sigma"), + "calibrated_mu": calibration.get("calibrated_mu"), + "calibrated_sigma": calibration.get("calibrated_sigma"), + } + + touched += 1 + if ( + record.get("shadow_prob_snapshot") == compact_shadow + and record.get("probability_calibration") == compact_calibration + ): + continue + + record["shadow_prob_snapshot"] = compact_shadow + record["probability_calibration"] = compact_calibration + history[city][date_str] = record + updated += 1 + + save_history(args.history_file, history) + print( + json.dumps( + { + "samples_seen": len(training_payload.get("samples") or []), + "records_considered": touched, + "records_updated": updated, + }, + ensure_ascii=False, + indent=2, + ) + ) + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + main() diff --git a/scripts/build_probability_shadow_report.py b/scripts/build_probability_shadow_report.py new file mode 100644 index 00000000..579f9506 --- /dev/null +++ b/scripts/build_probability_shadow_report.py @@ -0,0 +1,219 @@ +import argparse +import json +import os +import sys +from collections import defaultdict +from datetime import datetime + +PROJECT_ROOT = os.path.dirname(os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__))) +if PROJECT_ROOT not in sys.path: + sys.path.insert(0, PROJECT_ROOT) + +from src.analysis.deb_algorithm import load_history # noqa: E402 +from src.analysis.settlement_rounding import apply_city_settlement # noqa: E402 + + +def _sf(value): + if value is None: + return None + try: + return float(value) + except Exception: + return None + + +def _mean(values): + return round(sum(values) / len(values), 6) if values else None + + +def _top_bucket(snapshot): + if not isinstance(snapshot, list): + return None + best = None + best_prob = -1.0 + for row in snapshot: + if not isinstance(row, dict): + continue + try: + prob = float(row.get("p") if "p" in row else row.get("probability")) + except Exception: + continue + value = row.get("v") if "v" in row else row.get("value") + if value is None: + continue + if prob > best_prob: + best = value + best_prob = prob + return best + + +def _bucket_probability(snapshot, target_bucket): + if not isinstance(snapshot, list): + return 0.0 + for row in snapshot: + if not isinstance(row, dict): + continue + value = row.get("v") if "v" in row else row.get("value") + if value != target_bucket: + continue + try: + return float(row.get("p") if "p" in row else row.get("probability") or 0.0) + except Exception: + return 0.0 + return 0.0 + + +def _brier_from_snapshot(snapshot, target_bucket): + hit_prob = _bucket_probability(snapshot, target_bucket) + total = (1.0 - hit_prob) ** 2 + if isinstance(snapshot, list): + for row in snapshot: + if not isinstance(row, dict): + continue + value = row.get("v") if "v" in row else row.get("value") + if value == target_bucket: + continue + try: + prob = float(row.get("p") if "p" in row else row.get("probability") or 0.0) + except Exception: + prob = 0.0 + total += prob * prob + return round(total, 6) + + +def _blank_metrics(): + return { + "samples": 0, + "legacy_mae": [], + "shadow_mae": [], + "legacy_bucket_hit": [], + "shadow_bucket_hit": [], + "legacy_bucket_brier": [], + "shadow_bucket_brier": [], + } + + +def _rollup(metrics): + return { + "samples": metrics["samples"], + "legacy_mean_mae": _mean(metrics["legacy_mae"]), + "shadow_mean_mae": _mean(metrics["shadow_mae"]), + "legacy_bucket_hit_rate": _mean(metrics["legacy_bucket_hit"]), + "shadow_bucket_hit_rate": _mean(metrics["shadow_bucket_hit"]), + "legacy_bucket_brier": _mean(metrics["legacy_bucket_brier"]), + "shadow_bucket_brier": _mean(metrics["shadow_bucket_brier"]), + "delta_mae": round((_mean(metrics["shadow_mae"]) or 0.0) - (_mean(metrics["legacy_mae"]) or 0.0), 6), + "delta_bucket_hit_rate": round((_mean(metrics["shadow_bucket_hit"]) or 0.0) - (_mean(metrics["legacy_bucket_hit"]) or 0.0), 6), + "delta_bucket_brier": round((_mean(metrics["shadow_bucket_brier"]) or 0.0) - (_mean(metrics["legacy_bucket_brier"]) or 0.0), 6), + } + + +def main(): + parser = argparse.ArgumentParser(description="Build live shadow probability report from daily records.") + parser.add_argument( + "--history-file", + default=os.path.join(PROJECT_ROOT, "data", "daily_records.json"), + ) + parser.add_argument( + "--output", + default=os.path.join( + PROJECT_ROOT, + "artifacts", + "probability_calibration", + "shadow_report.json", + ), + ) + args = parser.parse_args() + + history = load_history(args.history_file) + overall = _blank_metrics() + by_city = defaultdict(_blank_metrics) + by_date = defaultdict(_blank_metrics) + latest_observations = [] + + for city, city_records in sorted(history.items()): + if not isinstance(city_records, dict): + continue + for date_str, record in sorted(city_records.items()): + if not isinstance(record, dict): + continue + actual_high = _sf(record.get("actual_high")) + shadow_snapshot = record.get("shadow_prob_snapshot") + calibration = record.get("probability_calibration") or {} + if actual_high is None or not shadow_snapshot: + continue + + legacy_mu = _sf(calibration.get("raw_mu")) + if legacy_mu is None: + legacy_mu = _sf(record.get("mu")) + shadow_mu = _sf(calibration.get("calibrated_mu")) + if shadow_mu is None: + continue + + actual_bucket = apply_city_settlement(city, actual_high) + legacy_snapshot = record.get("prob_snapshot") or [] + legacy_bucket = _top_bucket(legacy_snapshot) + shadow_bucket = _top_bucket(shadow_snapshot) + + for metrics in (overall, by_city[city], by_date[date_str]): + metrics["samples"] += 1 + metrics["legacy_mae"].append(abs(legacy_mu - actual_high)) + metrics["shadow_mae"].append(abs(shadow_mu - actual_high)) + metrics["legacy_bucket_hit"].append(1.0 if legacy_bucket == actual_bucket else 0.0) + metrics["shadow_bucket_hit"].append(1.0 if shadow_bucket == actual_bucket else 0.0) + metrics["legacy_bucket_brier"].append(_brier_from_snapshot(legacy_snapshot, actual_bucket)) + metrics["shadow_bucket_brier"].append(_brier_from_snapshot(shadow_snapshot, actual_bucket)) + + latest_observations.append( + { + "city": city, + "date": date_str, + "actual_high": actual_high, + "actual_bucket": actual_bucket, + "legacy_mu": round(legacy_mu, 3), + "shadow_mu": round(shadow_mu, 3), + "legacy_top_bucket": legacy_bucket, + "shadow_top_bucket": shadow_bucket, + "calibration_version": calibration.get("version"), + "calibration_mode": calibration.get("mode"), + } + ) + + by_city_report = { + city: _rollup(metrics) + for city, metrics in sorted(by_city.items()) + } + by_date_report = { + date_str: _rollup(metrics) + for date_str, metrics in sorted( + by_date.items(), + key=lambda item: datetime.strptime(item[0], "%Y-%m-%d"), + ) + } + + latest_observations = sorted( + latest_observations, + key=lambda row: (row["date"], row["city"]), + reverse=True, + )[:100] + + payload = { + "generated_at": datetime.utcnow().isoformat() + "Z", + "summary": _rollup(overall), + "by_city": by_city_report, + "by_date": by_date_report, + "recent_observations": latest_observations, + } + + output_dir = os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(args.output)) + if output_dir: + os.makedirs(output_dir, exist_ok=True) + with open(args.output, "w", encoding="utf-8") as fh: + json.dump(payload, fh, ensure_ascii=False, indent=2) + + print(json.dumps(payload["summary"], ensure_ascii=False, indent=2)) + print(f"saved shadow report to {args.output}") + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + main() diff --git a/scripts/build_settlement_history_from_csv.py b/scripts/build_settlement_history_from_csv.py new file mode 100644 index 00000000..489d9be6 --- /dev/null +++ b/scripts/build_settlement_history_from_csv.py @@ -0,0 +1,84 @@ +import argparse +import csv +import json +import os +import sys +from collections import defaultdict + +PROJECT_ROOT = os.path.dirname(os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__))) +if PROJECT_ROOT not in sys.path: + sys.path.insert(0, PROJECT_ROOT) + +from src.analysis.settlement_rounding import apply_city_settlement # noqa: E402 +from src.data_collection.city_registry import CITY_REGISTRY # noqa: E402 + + +def main(): + parser = argparse.ArgumentParser(description="Build daily settlement history from historical weather CSV files.") + parser.add_argument( + "--history-dir", + default=os.path.join(PROJECT_ROOT, "data", "historical"), + help="Directory containing per-city *_historical.csv files.", + ) + parser.add_argument( + "--output", + default=os.path.join( + PROJECT_ROOT, + "artifacts", + "probability_calibration", + "settlement_history.json", + ), + help="Output JSON path.", + ) + args = parser.parse_args() + + result = {} + for city in sorted(CITY_REGISTRY.keys()): + path = os.path.join( + args.history_dir, + f"{city.replace(' ', '_').lower()}_historical.csv", + ) + if not os.path.exists(path): + continue + + daily_max = defaultdict(lambda: None) + with open(path, "r", encoding="utf-8") as fh: + reader = csv.DictReader(fh) + for row in reader: + ts = str(row.get("time") or "") + raw_temp = row.get("temperature_2m") + if not ts or raw_temp in (None, ""): + continue + try: + temp = float(raw_temp) + except Exception: + continue + day = ts[:10] + prev = daily_max[day] + if prev is None or temp > prev: + daily_max[day] = temp + + result[city] = { + day: { + "max_temp": round(max_temp, 3), + "settlement_value": apply_city_settlement(city, max_temp), + } + for day, max_temp in sorted(daily_max.items()) + if max_temp is not None + } + + output_dir = os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(args.output)) + if output_dir: + os.makedirs(output_dir, exist_ok=True) + with open(args.output, "w", encoding="utf-8") as fh: + json.dump(result, fh, ensure_ascii=False, indent=2) + print( + "saved settlement history to {path} for {count} cities".format( + path=args.output, + count=len(result), + ) + ) + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + main() diff --git a/scripts/evaluate_probability_calibration.py b/scripts/evaluate_probability_calibration.py new file mode 100644 index 00000000..94fd5066 --- /dev/null +++ b/scripts/evaluate_probability_calibration.py @@ -0,0 +1,206 @@ +import argparse +import json +import os +import sys +from collections import defaultdict + +PROJECT_ROOT = os.path.dirname(os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__))) +if PROJECT_ROOT not in sys.path: + sys.path.insert(0, PROJECT_ROOT) + +from src.analysis.probability_calibration import ( # noqa: E402 + ENGINE_MODE_EMOS_PRIMARY, + _gaussian_crps, + apply_probability_calibration, + build_probability_features, +) +from src.analysis.settlement_rounding import apply_city_settlement # noqa: E402 +from scripts.fit_probability_calibration import ( # noqa: E402 + _extract_samples, + _load_json_if_exists, +) +from src.analysis.deb_algorithm import load_history # noqa: E402 + + +def _mean(values): + return (sum(values) / len(values)) if values else None + + +def _sample_to_features(sample): + return build_probability_features( + city_name=sample.get("city") or "", + raw_mu=sample.get("raw_mu"), + raw_sigma=sample.get("raw_sigma"), + deb_prediction=sample.get("deb_prediction"), + ens_data={ + "median": sample.get("ens_median"), + "p10": None, + "p90": None, + }, + current_forecasts={}, + max_so_far=None, + peak_status="in_window" if sample.get("peak_flag") == 0.5 else "past" if sample.get("peak_flag") == 1.0 else "before", + local_hour_frac=None, + ) + + +def _top_bucket_value(distribution): + if not distribution: + return None + top = max( + (row for row in distribution if isinstance(row, dict)), + key=lambda row: float(row.get("probability") or 0.0), + default=None, + ) + if not top: + return None + return top.get("value") + + +def main(): + parser = argparse.ArgumentParser(description="Evaluate legacy vs EMOS probability calibration.") + parser.add_argument( + "--history-file", + default=os.path.join(PROJECT_ROOT, "data", "daily_records.json"), + ) + parser.add_argument( + "--settlement-history", + default=os.path.join( + PROJECT_ROOT, + "artifacts", + "probability_calibration", + "settlement_history.json", + ), + ) + parser.add_argument( + "--calibration-file", + default=os.path.join( + PROJECT_ROOT, + "artifacts", + "probability_calibration", + "default.json", + ), + ) + parser.add_argument( + "--output", + default=os.path.join( + PROJECT_ROOT, + "artifacts", + "probability_calibration", + "evaluation_report.json", + ), + ) + args = parser.parse_args() + + history = load_history(args.history_file) + settlement_history = _load_json_if_exists(args.settlement_history) + samples, filled_actual_from_history = _extract_samples( + history, + settlement_history=settlement_history, + ) + + legacy_crps = [] + emos_crps = [] + legacy_mae = [] + emos_mae = [] + legacy_bucket_hits = [] + emos_bucket_hits = [] + by_city = defaultdict(lambda: { + "samples": 0, + "legacy_crps": [], + "emos_crps": [], + "legacy_mae": [], + "emos_mae": [], + "legacy_bucket_hits": [], + "emos_bucket_hits": [], + }) + + for sample in samples: + city = str(sample.get("city") or "").strip().lower() + actual_high = float(sample["actual_high"]) + raw_mu = float(sample["raw_mu"]) + raw_sigma = max(0.1, float(sample["raw_sigma"])) + legacy_crps.append(_gaussian_crps(actual_high, raw_mu, raw_sigma)) + legacy_mae.append(abs(raw_mu - actual_high)) + + legacy_bucket = apply_city_settlement(city, raw_mu) + actual_bucket = apply_city_settlement(city, actual_high) + legacy_bucket_hits.append(1.0 if legacy_bucket == actual_bucket else 0.0) + + calibration = apply_probability_calibration( + city_name=city, + temp_symbol="°F" if city in {"atlanta", "chicago", "dallas", "miami", "new york", "seattle"} else "°C", + raw_mu=raw_mu, + raw_sigma=raw_sigma, + max_so_far=None, + legacy_distribution=[], + features=_sample_to_features(sample), + calibration_path=args.calibration_file, + mode=ENGINE_MODE_EMOS_PRIMARY, + ) + emos_mu = float(calibration.get("calibrated_mu") or raw_mu) + emos_sigma = max(0.1, float(calibration.get("calibrated_sigma") or raw_sigma)) + emos_distribution = calibration.get("distribution") or [] + emos_crps.append(_gaussian_crps(actual_high, emos_mu, emos_sigma)) + emos_mae.append(abs(emos_mu - actual_high)) + emos_bucket = _top_bucket_value(emos_distribution) + emos_bucket_hits.append(1.0 if emos_bucket == actual_bucket else 0.0) + + row = by_city[city] + row["samples"] += 1 + row["legacy_crps"].append(legacy_crps[-1]) + row["emos_crps"].append(emos_crps[-1]) + row["legacy_mae"].append(legacy_mae[-1]) + row["emos_mae"].append(emos_mae[-1]) + row["legacy_bucket_hits"].append(legacy_bucket_hits[-1]) + row["emos_bucket_hits"].append(emos_bucket_hits[-1]) + + summary = { + "sample_count": len(samples), + "filled_actual_from_history": filled_actual_from_history, + "legacy": { + "mean_crps": round(_mean(legacy_crps), 6) if legacy_crps else None, + "mean_mae": round(_mean(legacy_mae), 6) if legacy_mae else None, + "bucket_hit_rate": round(_mean(legacy_bucket_hits), 6) if legacy_bucket_hits else None, + }, + "emos": { + "mean_crps": round(_mean(emos_crps), 6) if emos_crps else None, + "mean_mae": round(_mean(emos_mae), 6) if emos_mae else None, + "bucket_hit_rate": round(_mean(emos_bucket_hits), 6) if emos_bucket_hits else None, + }, + "delta": { + "crps": round((_mean(emos_crps) or 0.0) - (_mean(legacy_crps) or 0.0), 6), + "mae": round((_mean(emos_mae) or 0.0) - (_mean(legacy_mae) or 0.0), 6), + "bucket_hit_rate": round((_mean(emos_bucket_hits) or 0.0) - (_mean(legacy_bucket_hits) or 0.0), 6), + }, + } + + city_report = {} + for city, metrics in sorted(by_city.items()): + city_report[city] = { + "samples": metrics["samples"], + "legacy_mean_crps": round(_mean(metrics["legacy_crps"]), 6), + "emos_mean_crps": round(_mean(metrics["emos_crps"]), 6), + "legacy_mean_mae": round(_mean(metrics["legacy_mae"]), 6), + "emos_mean_mae": round(_mean(metrics["emos_mae"]), 6), + "legacy_bucket_hit_rate": round(_mean(metrics["legacy_bucket_hits"]), 6), + "emos_bucket_hit_rate": round(_mean(metrics["emos_bucket_hits"]), 6), + } + + payload = { + "summary": summary, + "by_city": city_report, + } + + output_dir = os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(args.output)) + if output_dir: + os.makedirs(output_dir, exist_ok=True) + with open(args.output, "w", encoding="utf-8") as fh: + json.dump(payload, fh, ensure_ascii=False, indent=2) + + print(json.dumps(summary, ensure_ascii=False, indent=2)) + print(f"saved evaluation report to {args.output}") + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + main() diff --git a/scripts/export_probability_training_dataset.py b/scripts/export_probability_training_dataset.py new file mode 100644 index 00000000..420f8785 --- /dev/null +++ b/scripts/export_probability_training_dataset.py @@ -0,0 +1,65 @@ +import argparse +import json +import os +import sys + +PROJECT_ROOT = os.path.dirname(os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__))) +if PROJECT_ROOT not in sys.path: + sys.path.insert(0, PROJECT_ROOT) + +from src.analysis.deb_algorithm import load_history # noqa: E402 +from scripts.fit_probability_calibration import ( # noqa: E402 + _extract_samples, + _load_json_if_exists, +) + + +def main(): + parser = argparse.ArgumentParser(description="Export normalized probability calibration training samples.") + parser.add_argument( + "--history-file", + default=os.path.join(PROJECT_ROOT, "data", "daily_records.json"), + ) + parser.add_argument( + "--settlement-history", + default=os.path.join( + PROJECT_ROOT, + "artifacts", + "probability_calibration", + "settlement_history.json", + ), + ) + parser.add_argument( + "--output", + default=os.path.join( + PROJECT_ROOT, + "artifacts", + "probability_calibration", + "training_samples.json", + ), + ) + args = parser.parse_args() + + history = load_history(args.history_file) + settlement_history = _load_json_if_exists(args.settlement_history) + samples, filled_actual_from_history = _extract_samples( + history, + settlement_history=settlement_history, + ) + + output_dir = os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(args.output)) + if output_dir: + os.makedirs(output_dir, exist_ok=True) + payload = { + "sample_count": len(samples), + "filled_actual_from_history": filled_actual_from_history, + "samples": samples, + } + with open(args.output, "w", encoding="utf-8") as fh: + json.dump(payload, fh, ensure_ascii=False, indent=2) + + print(f"exported {len(samples)} samples to {args.output}") + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + main() diff --git a/scripts/fit_probability_calibration.py b/scripts/fit_probability_calibration.py new file mode 100644 index 00000000..b67095f5 --- /dev/null +++ b/scripts/fit_probability_calibration.py @@ -0,0 +1,171 @@ +import argparse +import json +import os +import sys +from datetime import datetime + +PROJECT_ROOT = os.path.dirname(os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__))) +if PROJECT_ROOT not in sys.path: + sys.path.insert(0, PROJECT_ROOT) + +from src.analysis.probability_calibration import ( # noqa: E402 + DEFAULT_CALIBRATION_FILE, + default_calibration_payload, + fit_calibration, +) +from src.analysis.deb_algorithm import load_history # noqa: E402 + + +def _sf(value): + if value is None: + return None + try: + return float(value) + except Exception: + return None + + +def _load_json_if_exists(path): + if not path or not os.path.exists(path): + return {} + with open(path, "r", encoding="utf-8") as fh: + data = json.load(fh) + return data if isinstance(data, dict) else {} + + +def _extract_samples(history, settlement_history=None): + samples = [] + filled_actual_from_history = 0 + today = datetime.utcnow().strftime("%Y-%m-%d") + settlement_history = settlement_history or {} + for city, city_rows in (history or {}).items(): + if not isinstance(city_rows, dict): + continue + city_settlement = settlement_history.get(city) or {} + for date_str, record in city_rows.items(): + if date_str == today or not isinstance(record, dict): + continue + actual_high = _sf(record.get("actual_high")) + if actual_high is None: + actual_high = _sf((city_settlement.get(date_str) or {}).get("max_temp")) + if actual_high is not None: + filled_actual_from_history += 1 + deb_prediction = _sf(record.get("deb_prediction")) + raw_mu = _sf(record.get("mu")) or deb_prediction + forecasts = record.get("forecasts") or {} + if not isinstance(forecasts, dict): + forecasts = {} + forecast_values = [val for val in (_sf(v) for v in forecasts.values()) if val is not None] + forecast_values.sort() + forecast_median = ( + forecast_values[len(forecast_values) // 2] if forecast_values else None + ) + feature_snapshot = record.get("probability_features") or {} + if not isinstance(feature_snapshot, dict): + feature_snapshot = {} + + ens_median = _sf(feature_snapshot.get("ens_median")) or forecast_median or raw_mu + ensemble_spread = _sf(feature_snapshot.get("ensemble_spread")) + if ensemble_spread is None: + if len(forecast_values) >= 2: + ensemble_spread = max(0.6, (forecast_values[-1] - forecast_values[0]) / 2.0) + else: + ensemble_spread = 1.0 + raw_sigma = _sf(feature_snapshot.get("raw_sigma")) or ensemble_spread or 1.0 + peak_status = str(feature_snapshot.get("peak_status") or "before").strip().lower() + peak_flag = 0.0 + if peak_status == "in_window": + peak_flag = 0.5 + elif peak_status == "past": + peak_flag = 1.0 + + if actual_high is None or raw_mu is None: + continue + + max_so_far = _sf(feature_snapshot.get("max_so_far")) + max_so_far_gap = _sf(feature_snapshot.get("max_so_far_gap")) + if max_so_far_gap is None and max_so_far is not None and deb_prediction is not None: + max_so_far_gap = deb_prediction - max_so_far + + samples.append( + { + "city": city, + "date": date_str, + "actual_high": actual_high, + "raw_mu": raw_mu, + "raw_sigma": raw_sigma, + "deb_prediction": deb_prediction, + "ens_median": ens_median, + "ensemble_spread": ensemble_spread, + "max_so_far_gap": max_so_far_gap, + "peak_flag": peak_flag, + } + ) + return samples, filled_actual_from_history + + +def main(): + parser = argparse.ArgumentParser(description="Fit PolyWeather probability calibration parameters.") + parser.add_argument( + "--history-file", + default=os.path.join(PROJECT_ROOT, "data", "daily_records.json"), + help="Path to the historical daily_records.json file.", + ) + parser.add_argument( + "--output", + default=DEFAULT_CALIBRATION_FILE, + help="Output JSON file for fitted calibration parameters.", + ) + parser.add_argument( + "--settlement-history", + default=os.path.join( + PROJECT_ROOT, + "artifacts", + "probability_calibration", + "settlement_history.json", + ), + help="Optional daily settlement history JSON built from historical CSV files.", + ) + parser.add_argument( + "--version", + default=None, + help="Optional explicit calibration version.", + ) + args = parser.parse_args() + + history = load_history(args.history_file) + settlement_history = _load_json_if_exists(args.settlement_history) + samples, filled_actual_from_history = _extract_samples( + history, + settlement_history=settlement_history, + ) + calibration = fit_calibration(samples, version=args.version) + if not samples: + calibration = default_calibration_payload( + version=args.version, + reason="no_samples", + ) + calibration.setdefault("metrics", {}) + calibration["metrics"]["filled_actual_from_history"] = filled_actual_from_history + calibration["metrics"]["settlement_history_city_count"] = len(settlement_history) + try: + calibration["source"] = os.path.relpath(args.output, PROJECT_ROOT) + except ValueError: + calibration["source"] = os.path.abspath(args.output) + + output_dir = os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(args.output)) + if output_dir: + os.makedirs(output_dir, exist_ok=True) + with open(args.output, "w", encoding="utf-8") as fh: + json.dump(calibration, fh, ensure_ascii=False, indent=2) + + print( + "saved calibration to {path} with {count} samples".format( + path=args.output, + count=calibration.get("metrics", {}).get("sample_count", 0), + ) + ) + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + main() diff --git a/src/analysis/deb_algorithm.py b/src/analysis/deb_algorithm.py index 35430f10..853a420a 100644 --- a/src/analysis/deb_algorithm.py +++ b/src/analysis/deb_algorithm.py @@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ import os import json from datetime import datetime, timedelta import requests -from src.analysis.settlement_rounding import wu_round, apply_city_settlement, is_exact_settlement_city +from src.analysis.settlement_rounding import apply_city_settlement # Cross-platform file locking import sys @@ -38,6 +38,15 @@ _history_cache = {} _history_mtime = 0 +def _sf(value): + if value is None: + return None + try: + return float(value) + except Exception: + return None + + def _is_excluded_model_name(model_name: str) -> bool: normalized = str(model_name or "").strip().lower().replace(" ", "").replace("_", "").replace("-", "") return "meteoblue" in normalized @@ -217,8 +226,16 @@ def reconcile_recent_actual_highs(city_name: str, lookback_days: int = 7): def update_daily_record( - city_name, date_str, forecasts, actual_high, deb_prediction=None, - mu=None, probabilities=None + city_name, + date_str, + forecasts, + actual_high, + deb_prediction=None, + mu=None, + probabilities=None, + probability_features=None, + shadow_probabilities=None, + calibration_summary=None, ): """ 保存/更新某城市某天的各个模型预报与最终实测值 @@ -253,6 +270,36 @@ def update_daily_record( {"v": p["value"], "p": p["probability"]} for p in probabilities[:4] ] + compact_features = None + if isinstance(probability_features, dict) and probability_features: + compact_features = { + "raw_mu": _sf(probability_features.get("raw_mu")), + "raw_sigma": _sf(probability_features.get("raw_sigma")), + "deb_prediction": _sf(probability_features.get("deb_prediction")), + "ens_median": _sf(probability_features.get("ens_median")), + "ensemble_spread": _sf(probability_features.get("ensemble_spread")), + "max_so_far": _sf(probability_features.get("max_so_far")), + "max_so_far_gap": _sf(probability_features.get("max_so_far_gap")), + "peak_status": probability_features.get("peak_status"), + } + compact_shadow_probs = None + if shadow_probabilities is not None: + compact_shadow_probs = [ + {"v": p["value"], "p": p["probability"]} + for p in shadow_probabilities[:4] + ] + compact_calibration = None + if isinstance(calibration_summary, dict) and calibration_summary: + compact_calibration = { + "mode": calibration_summary.get("mode"), + "engine": calibration_summary.get("engine"), + "version": calibration_summary.get("calibration_version"), + "source": calibration_summary.get("calibration_source"), + "raw_mu": _sf(calibration_summary.get("raw_mu")), + "raw_sigma": _sf(calibration_summary.get("raw_sigma")), + "calibrated_mu": _sf(calibration_summary.get("calibrated_mu")), + "calibrated_sigma": _sf(calibration_summary.get("calibrated_sigma")), + } # 避免无意义的频繁磁盘写入 existing = data[city_name][date_str] @@ -260,6 +307,7 @@ def update_daily_record( old_deb = existing.get("deb_prediction") old_mu = existing.get("mu") old_probs = existing.get("prob_snapshot") + old_shadow_probs = existing.get("shadow_prob_snapshot") next_mu = round(mu, 2) if mu is not None else None if ( old_actual == actual_high @@ -267,6 +315,18 @@ def update_daily_record( and (deb_prediction is None or old_deb == deb_prediction) and (mu is None or old_mu == next_mu) and (compact_probs is None or old_probs == compact_probs) + and ( + compact_shadow_probs is None + or old_shadow_probs == compact_shadow_probs + ) + and ( + compact_features is None + or existing.get("probability_features") == compact_features + ) + and ( + compact_calibration is None + or existing.get("probability_calibration") == compact_calibration + ) ): return @@ -285,6 +345,12 @@ def update_daily_record( existing["mu"] = next_mu if probabilities is not None: existing["prob_snapshot"] = compact_probs + if compact_features is not None: + existing["probability_features"] = compact_features + if shadow_probabilities is not None: + existing["shadow_prob_snapshot"] = compact_shadow_probs + if compact_calibration is not None: + existing["probability_calibration"] = compact_calibration # 自动清理：只保留最近 14 天的记录（DEB 只用 7 天，14 天留足余量） cutoff = (datetime.now() - timedelta(days=14)).strftime("%Y-%m-%d") diff --git a/src/analysis/market_alert_engine.py b/src/analysis/market_alert_engine.py index f95e6af6..97e90c5c 100644 --- a/src/analysis/market_alert_engine.py +++ b/src/analysis/market_alert_engine.py @@ -9,7 +9,7 @@ import re from datetime import datetime, timezone from typing import Any, Dict, List, Optional, Tuple -from src.analysis.settlement_rounding import wu_round, apply_city_settlement, is_exact_settlement_city +from src.analysis.settlement_rounding import apply_city_settlement def _sf(v: Any) -> Optional[float]: @@ -652,6 +652,7 @@ def _pick_bucket_for_forecast( def _extract_market_snapshot(city_weather: Dict[str, Any]) -> Dict[str, Any]: scan = city_weather.get("market_scan") or {} + city = str(city_weather.get("name") or "").strip().lower() if not isinstance(scan, dict): return {"available": False} if not scan.get("available"): diff --git a/src/analysis/probability_calibration.py b/src/analysis/probability_calibration.py new file mode 100644 index 00000000..c2b7c614 --- /dev/null +++ b/src/analysis/probability_calibration.py @@ -0,0 +1,643 @@ +from __future__ import annotations + +import json +import math +import os +from datetime import datetime, timezone +from typing import Any, Dict, Iterable, List, Optional, Tuple + +import numpy as np + +from src.analysis.settlement_rounding import apply_city_settlement, is_exact_settlement_city + +ENGINE_MODE_LEGACY = "legacy" +ENGINE_MODE_EMOS_SHADOW = "emos_shadow" +ENGINE_MODE_EMOS_PRIMARY = "emos_primary" +VALID_ENGINE_MODES = { + ENGINE_MODE_LEGACY, + ENGINE_MODE_EMOS_SHADOW, + ENGINE_MODE_EMOS_PRIMARY, +} + +DEFAULT_CALIBRATION_FILE = os.path.join( + os.path.dirname(os.path.dirname(os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__)))), + "artifacts", + "probability_calibration", + "default.json", +) + +_CALIBRATION_CACHE: Dict[str, Dict[str, Any]] = {} +_CALIBRATION_MTIME: Dict[str, float] = {} + + +def _sf(value: Any) -> Optional[float]: + if value is None: + return None + try: + return float(value) + except Exception: + return None + + +def _coalesce_float(value: Any, default: float) -> float: + parsed = _sf(value) + return default if parsed is None else parsed + + +def _mean(values: Iterable[float]) -> Optional[float]: + values = list(values) + return (sum(values) / len(values)) if values else None + + +def resolve_probability_engine_mode(explicit_mode: Optional[str] = None) -> str: + mode = str( + explicit_mode + or os.getenv("POLYWEATHER_PROBABILITY_ENGINE") + or ENGINE_MODE_EMOS_SHADOW + ).strip().lower() + if mode not in VALID_ENGINE_MODES: + return ENGINE_MODE_EMOS_SHADOW + return mode + + +def load_calibration(calibration_path: Optional[str] = None) -> Dict[str, Any]: + path = str( + calibration_path + or os.getenv("POLYWEATHER_PROBABILITY_CALIBRATION_FILE") + or DEFAULT_CALIBRATION_FILE + ).strip() + if not path: + return {} + if not os.path.exists(path): + return {} + + try: + mtime = os.path.getmtime(path) + cached = _CALIBRATION_CACHE.get(path) + if cached and _CALIBRATION_MTIME.get(path) == mtime: + return cached + + with open(path, "r", encoding="utf-8") as fh: + data = json.load(fh) + if not isinstance(data, dict): + return {} + + _CALIBRATION_CACHE[path] = data + _CALIBRATION_MTIME[path] = mtime + return data + except Exception: + return {} + + +def build_probability_features( + city_name: str, + raw_mu: Optional[float], + raw_sigma: Optional[float], + deb_prediction: Optional[float], + ens_data: Optional[Dict[str, Any]], + current_forecasts: Optional[Dict[str, Any]], + max_so_far: Optional[float], + peak_status: str, + local_hour_frac: Optional[float], +) -> Dict[str, Any]: + ens_data = ens_data or {} + current_forecasts = current_forecasts or {} + forecast_values = [ + v for v in (_sf(val) for val in current_forecasts.values()) if v is not None + ] + forecast_values.sort() + forecast_median = None + if forecast_values: + forecast_median = forecast_values[len(forecast_values) // 2] + + ens_median = _sf(ens_data.get("median")) + ens_p10 = _sf(ens_data.get("p10")) + ens_p90 = _sf(ens_data.get("p90")) + + ensemble_spread = None + if ens_p10 is not None and ens_p90 is not None and ens_p90 >= ens_p10: + ensemble_spread = max(0.1, (ens_p90 - ens_p10) / 2.56) + elif len(forecast_values) >= 2: + ensemble_spread = max(0.6, (forecast_values[-1] - forecast_values[0]) / 2.0) + elif raw_sigma is not None: + ensemble_spread = max(0.1, raw_sigma) + + baseline = deb_prediction if deb_prediction is not None else raw_mu + max_so_far_gap = None + if baseline is not None and max_so_far is not None: + max_so_far_gap = baseline - max_so_far + + peak_flag = 0.0 + if peak_status == "in_window": + peak_flag = 0.5 + elif peak_status == "past": + peak_flag = 1.0 + + return { + "city": str(city_name or "").strip().lower(), + "raw_mu": raw_mu, + "raw_sigma": raw_sigma, + "deb_prediction": deb_prediction, + "ens_median": ens_median, + "ens_p10": ens_p10, + "ens_p90": ens_p90, + "forecast_median": forecast_median, + "forecast_spread": forecast_values[-1] - forecast_values[0] + if len(forecast_values) >= 2 + else None, + "ensemble_spread": ensemble_spread, + "max_so_far": max_so_far, + "max_so_far_gap": max_so_far_gap, + "peak_status": peak_status, + "peak_flag": peak_flag, + "local_hour_frac": local_hour_frac, + "model_count": len(forecast_values), + } + + +def _normal_cdf(x: float, mean: float, sigma: float) -> float: + return 0.5 * (1.0 + math.erf((x - mean) / (sigma * math.sqrt(2.0)))) + + +def _normal_pdf(x: float) -> float: + return math.exp(-(x ** 2) / 2.0) / math.sqrt(2.0 * math.pi) + + +def _bucket_probabilities( + mu: float, + sigma: float, + max_so_far: Optional[float], + city_name: str, +) -> Tuple[List[Dict[str, Any]], List[Tuple[int, float]]]: + sigma = max(0.1, float(sigma)) + min_possible = ( + apply_city_settlement(city_name, max_so_far) if max_so_far is not None else -999 + ) + probs: Dict[int, float] = {} + search_range = max(2, int(sigma * 2.5)) + is_exact = is_exact_settlement_city(city_name) + target_mu = apply_city_settlement(city_name, mu) + if is_exact: + target_mu = int(math.floor(mu)) + + for value in range(target_mu - search_range, target_mu + search_range + 1): + if value < min_possible: + continue + if is_exact: + prob = _normal_cdf(value + 1.0, mu, sigma) - _normal_cdf(value, mu, sigma) + else: + prob = _normal_cdf(value + 0.5, mu, sigma) - _normal_cdf(value - 0.5, mu, sigma) + if prob > 0.01: + probs[value] = prob + + total = sum(probs.values()) + if total <= 0: + return [], [] + + normalized = {key: val / total for key, val in probs.items()} + sorted_probs = sorted(normalized.items(), key=lambda item: item[1], reverse=True) + distribution = [] + for value, prob in sorted_probs[:4]: + if is_exact: + bucket_range = "[{0}.0~{1}.0)".format(value, value + 1) + else: + bucket_range = "[{0}~{1})".format(value - 0.5, value + 0.5) + distribution.append( + { + "value": int(value), + "range": bucket_range, + "probability": round(prob, 3), + } + ) + return distribution, sorted_probs + + +def _top_bucket_value(distribution: Optional[List[Dict[str, Any]]]) -> Optional[int]: + if not distribution: + return None + top = max( + (row for row in distribution if isinstance(row, dict)), + key=lambda row: float(row.get("probability") or 0.0), + default=None, + ) + if not top: + return None + value = top.get("value") + return int(value) if value is not None else None + + +def _composite_score(mean_crps: float, mean_mae: float, bucket_hit_rate: float) -> float: + return mean_crps + 0.1 * mean_mae + 2.0 * (1.0 - bucket_hit_rate) + + +def _blend_value(raw_value: float, calibrated_value: float, alpha: float) -> float: + return (1.0 - alpha) * raw_value + alpha * calibrated_value + + +def apply_probability_calibration( + city_name: str, + temp_symbol: str, + raw_mu: Optional[float], + raw_sigma: Optional[float], + max_so_far: Optional[float], + legacy_distribution: Optional[List[Dict[str, Any]]], + features: Optional[Dict[str, Any]] = None, + calibration_path: Optional[str] = None, + mode: Optional[str] = None, +) -> Dict[str, Any]: + selected_mode = resolve_probability_engine_mode(mode) + if raw_mu is None or raw_sigma is None: + return { + "mode": selected_mode, + "engine": ENGINE_MODE_LEGACY, + "distribution": legacy_distribution or [], + "shadow_distribution": [], + "raw_mu": raw_mu, + "raw_sigma": raw_sigma, + "calibrated_mu": None, + "calibrated_sigma": None, + "calibration_version": None, + "calibration_source": None, + } + + calibration = load_calibration(calibration_path) + if not calibration: + return { + "mode": selected_mode, + "engine": ENGINE_MODE_LEGACY, + "distribution": legacy_distribution or [], + "shadow_distribution": [], + "raw_mu": raw_mu, + "raw_sigma": raw_sigma, + "calibrated_mu": None, + "calibrated_sigma": None, + "calibration_version": None, + "calibration_source": None, + } + + features = features or {} + city_key = str(city_name or "").strip().lower() + global_params = calibration.get("global", {}) or {} + city_params = (calibration.get("cities", {}) or {}).get(city_key, {}) or {} + blending_cfg = calibration.get("blending", {}) or {} + + mu_cfg = global_params.get("mu", {}) or {} + sigma_cfg = global_params.get("sigma", {}) or {} + city_confidence = max(0.0, min(1.0, _coalesce_float(city_params.get("confidence"), 1.0))) + city_mu_bias = _coalesce_float(city_params.get("mu_bias"), 0.0) * city_confidence + city_sigma_scale = 1.0 + ( + (_coalesce_float(city_params.get("sigma_scale"), 1.0) - 1.0) * city_confidence + ) + + deb_prediction = _sf(features.get("deb_prediction")) + ens_median = _sf(features.get("ens_median")) + max_so_far_gap = _sf(features.get("max_so_far_gap")) + peak_flag = _sf(features.get("peak_flag")) or 0.0 + ensemble_spread = _sf(features.get("ensemble_spread")) + + mu_intercept = _coalesce_float(mu_cfg.get("intercept"), 0.0) + mu_raw_coef = _coalesce_float(mu_cfg.get("raw_mu_coef"), 1.0) + mu_deb_coef = _coalesce_float(mu_cfg.get("deb_coef"), 0.0) + mu_ens_coef = _coalesce_float(mu_cfg.get("ens_median_coef"), 0.0) + mu_gap_coef = _coalesce_float(mu_cfg.get("max_so_far_gap_coef"), 0.0) + + sigma_intercept = _coalesce_float( + sigma_cfg.get("intercept"), + math.log(max(raw_sigma, 0.1)), + ) + sigma_raw_coef = _coalesce_float(sigma_cfg.get("raw_sigma_coef"), 1.0) + sigma_spread_coef = _coalesce_float(sigma_cfg.get("spread_coef"), 0.0) + sigma_peak_coef = _coalesce_float(sigma_cfg.get("peak_flag_coef"), 0.0) + sigma_gap_coef = _coalesce_float(sigma_cfg.get("max_so_far_gap_coef"), 0.0) + + calibrated_mu = ( + mu_intercept + + mu_raw_coef * raw_mu + + mu_deb_coef * (deb_prediction if deb_prediction is not None else raw_mu) + + mu_ens_coef * (ens_median if ens_median is not None else raw_mu) + + mu_gap_coef * (max_so_far_gap if max_so_far_gap is not None else 0.0) + + city_mu_bias + ) + sigma_log = ( + sigma_intercept + + sigma_raw_coef * math.log(max(raw_sigma, 0.1)) + + sigma_spread_coef * math.log(max(ensemble_spread or raw_sigma, 0.1)) + + sigma_peak_coef * peak_flag + + sigma_gap_coef * (max_so_far_gap if max_so_far_gap is not None else 0.0) + ) + calibrated_sigma = max(0.1, math.exp(sigma_log) * city_sigma_scale) + blend_alpha_mu = max(0.0, min(1.0, _coalesce_float(blending_cfg.get("alpha_mu"), 1.0))) + blend_alpha_sigma = max(0.0, min(1.0, _coalesce_float(blending_cfg.get("alpha_sigma"), 1.0))) + calibrated_mu = _blend_value(raw_mu, calibrated_mu, blend_alpha_mu) + calibrated_sigma = max(0.1, _blend_value(raw_sigma, calibrated_sigma, blend_alpha_sigma)) + calibrated_distribution, calibrated_sorted = _bucket_probabilities( + calibrated_mu, + calibrated_sigma, + max_so_far=max_so_far, + city_name=city_key, + ) + + engine = ENGINE_MODE_LEGACY + selected_distribution = legacy_distribution or [] + selected_sorted: List[Tuple[int, float]] = [] + shadow_distribution: List[Dict[str, Any]] = [] + shadow_sorted: List[Tuple[int, float]] = [] + if selected_mode == ENGINE_MODE_EMOS_PRIMARY: + engine = "emos" + selected_distribution = calibrated_distribution + selected_sorted = calibrated_sorted + elif selected_mode == ENGINE_MODE_EMOS_SHADOW: + shadow_distribution = calibrated_distribution + shadow_sorted = calibrated_sorted + + return { + "mode": selected_mode, + "engine": engine, + "distribution": selected_distribution, + "selected_sorted_probs": selected_sorted, + "shadow_distribution": shadow_distribution, + "shadow_sorted_probs": shadow_sorted, + "raw_mu": raw_mu, + "raw_sigma": raw_sigma, + "calibrated_mu": calibrated_mu, + "calibrated_sigma": calibrated_sigma, + "blend_alpha_mu": blend_alpha_mu, + "blend_alpha_sigma": blend_alpha_sigma, + "calibration_version": calibration.get("version"), + "calibration_source": calibration.get("source") + or os.path.relpath( + calibration_path or DEFAULT_CALIBRATION_FILE, + os.path.dirname(os.path.dirname(os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__)))), + ), + } + + +def _gaussian_crps(observation: float, mean: float, sigma: float) -> float: + sigma = max(0.1, float(sigma)) + z = (observation - mean) / sigma + return sigma * ( + z * (2.0 * _normal_cdf(z, 0.0, 1.0) - 1.0) + + 2.0 * _normal_pdf(z) + - 1.0 / math.sqrt(math.pi) + ) + + +def _fit_linear(xs: np.ndarray, ys: np.ndarray) -> np.ndarray: + if len(xs) == 0: + return np.zeros(xs.shape[1], dtype=float) + coeffs, _, _, _ = np.linalg.lstsq(xs, ys, rcond=None) + return coeffs + + +def fit_calibration( + samples: Iterable[Dict[str, Any]], + version: Optional[str] = None, +) -> Dict[str, Any]: + normalized_samples: List[Dict[str, Any]] = [] + city_residuals: Dict[str, List[float]] = {} + city_sigma_ratios: Dict[str, List[float]] = {} + + for raw_sample in samples: + actual = _sf(raw_sample.get("actual_high")) + raw_mu = _sf(raw_sample.get("raw_mu")) + raw_sigma = _sf(raw_sample.get("raw_sigma")) + if actual is None or raw_mu is None or raw_sigma is None: + continue + feature_row = { + "city": str(raw_sample.get("city") or "").strip().lower(), + "actual_high": actual, + "raw_mu": raw_mu, + "raw_sigma": max(0.1, raw_sigma), + "deb_prediction": _sf(raw_sample.get("deb_prediction")), + "ens_median": _sf(raw_sample.get("ens_median")), + "ensemble_spread": _sf(raw_sample.get("ensemble_spread")), + "max_so_far_gap": _sf(raw_sample.get("max_so_far_gap")), + "peak_flag": _sf(raw_sample.get("peak_flag")) or 0.0, + } + normalized_samples.append(feature_row) + + if len(normalized_samples) < 3: + return default_calibration_payload(version=version, reason="insufficient_samples") + + mu_rows = [] + mu_targets = [] + for sample in normalized_samples: + deb = sample["deb_prediction"] if sample["deb_prediction"] is not None else sample["raw_mu"] + ens_median = sample["ens_median"] if sample["ens_median"] is not None else sample["raw_mu"] + gap = sample["max_so_far_gap"] if sample["max_so_far_gap"] is not None else 0.0 + mu_rows.append([1.0, sample["raw_mu"], deb, ens_median, gap]) + mu_targets.append(sample["actual_high"]) + + mu_coeffs = _fit_linear(np.array(mu_rows, dtype=float), np.array(mu_targets, dtype=float)) + + sigma_rows = [] + sigma_targets = [] + mu_predictions = [] + for idx, sample in enumerate(normalized_samples): + predicted_mu = float(np.dot(mu_coeffs, np.array(mu_rows[idx], dtype=float))) + mu_predictions.append(predicted_mu) + residual = max(abs(sample["actual_high"] - predicted_mu), 0.1) + spread = max(sample["ensemble_spread"] or sample["raw_sigma"], 0.1) + gap = sample["max_so_far_gap"] if sample["max_so_far_gap"] is not None else 0.0 + sigma_rows.append([1.0, math.log(sample["raw_sigma"]), math.log(spread), sample["peak_flag"], gap]) + sigma_targets.append(math.log(residual)) + city_residuals.setdefault(sample["city"], []).append(sample["actual_high"] - predicted_mu) + city_sigma_ratios.setdefault(sample["city"], []).append(residual / max(sample["raw_sigma"], 0.1)) + + sigma_coeffs = _fit_linear(np.array(sigma_rows, dtype=float), np.array(sigma_targets, dtype=float)) + + crps_values = [] + for idx, sample in enumerate(normalized_samples): + predicted_mu = mu_predictions[idx] + sigma_log = float(np.dot(sigma_coeffs, np.array(sigma_rows[idx], dtype=float))) + predicted_sigma = max(0.1, math.exp(sigma_log)) + crps_values.append(_gaussian_crps(sample["actual_high"], predicted_mu, predicted_sigma)) + + city_params: Dict[str, Dict[str, Any]] = {} + for city, residuals in city_residuals.items(): + if len(residuals) < 3: + continue + sigma_ratios = city_sigma_ratios.get(city) or [1.0] + confidence = max(0.25, min(1.0, len(residuals) / 8.0)) + city_params[city] = { + "samples": len(residuals), + "mu_bias": round(sum(residuals) / len(residuals), 6), + "sigma_scale": round( + max(0.5, min(2.0, sum(sigma_ratios) / len(sigma_ratios))), + 6, + ), + "confidence": round(confidence, 6), + } + + legacy_crps_values = [] + legacy_mae_values = [] + legacy_bucket_hits = [] + candidate_predictions = [] + for idx, sample in enumerate(normalized_samples): + city = sample["city"] + city_meta = city_params.get(city, {}) + city_confidence = max( + 0.0, + min(1.0, _coalesce_float(city_meta.get("confidence"), 1.0)), + ) + city_mu_bias = _coalesce_float(city_meta.get("mu_bias"), 0.0) * city_confidence + city_sigma_scale = 1.0 + ( + (_coalesce_float(city_meta.get("sigma_scale"), 1.0) - 1.0) * city_confidence + ) + + legacy_mu = sample["raw_mu"] + legacy_sigma = sample["raw_sigma"] + actual_high = sample["actual_high"] + legacy_crps_values.append(_gaussian_crps(actual_high, legacy_mu, legacy_sigma)) + legacy_mae_values.append(abs(legacy_mu - actual_high)) + legacy_bucket_hits.append( + 1.0 + if apply_city_settlement(city, legacy_mu) + == apply_city_settlement(city, actual_high) + else 0.0 + ) + + calibrated_mu = mu_predictions[idx] + city_mu_bias + sigma_log = float(np.dot(sigma_coeffs, np.array(sigma_rows[idx], dtype=float))) + calibrated_sigma = max(0.1, math.exp(sigma_log) * city_sigma_scale) + candidate_predictions.append( + { + "city": city, + "actual_high": actual_high, + "raw_mu": legacy_mu, + "raw_sigma": legacy_sigma, + "calibrated_mu": calibrated_mu, + "calibrated_sigma": calibrated_sigma, + } + ) + + legacy_mean_crps = _mean(legacy_crps_values) or 0.0 + legacy_mean_mae = _mean(legacy_mae_values) or 0.0 + legacy_bucket_hit_rate = _mean(legacy_bucket_hits) or 0.0 + legacy_score = _composite_score( + legacy_mean_crps, + legacy_mean_mae, + legacy_bucket_hit_rate, + ) + + best_alpha_mu = 0.0 + best_alpha_sigma = 0.0 + best_score = legacy_score + best_metrics = { + "mean_crps": legacy_mean_crps, + "mean_mae": legacy_mean_mae, + "bucket_hit_rate": legacy_bucket_hit_rate, + } + alpha_grid = [step / 20.0 for step in range(21)] + for alpha_mu in alpha_grid: + for alpha_sigma in alpha_grid: + crps_values = [] + mae_values = [] + bucket_hits = [] + for row in candidate_predictions: + mu_hat = _blend_value(row["raw_mu"], row["calibrated_mu"], alpha_mu) + sigma_hat = max( + 0.1, + _blend_value(row["raw_sigma"], row["calibrated_sigma"], alpha_sigma), + ) + actual_high = row["actual_high"] + city = row["city"] + crps_values.append(_gaussian_crps(actual_high, mu_hat, sigma_hat)) + mae_values.append(abs(mu_hat - actual_high)) + distribution, _ = _bucket_probabilities( + mu_hat, + sigma_hat, + max_so_far=None, + city_name=city, + ) + predicted_bucket = _top_bucket_value(distribution) + actual_bucket = apply_city_settlement(city, actual_high) + bucket_hits.append(1.0 if predicted_bucket == actual_bucket else 0.0) + + mean_crps = _mean(crps_values) or 0.0 + mean_mae = _mean(mae_values) or 0.0 + bucket_hit_rate = _mean(bucket_hits) or 0.0 + score = _composite_score(mean_crps, mean_mae, bucket_hit_rate) + if score + 1e-9 < best_score: + best_score = score + best_alpha_mu = alpha_mu + best_alpha_sigma = alpha_sigma + best_metrics = { + "mean_crps": mean_crps, + "mean_mae": mean_mae, + "bucket_hit_rate": bucket_hit_rate, + } + + return { + "version": version or datetime.now(timezone.utc).strftime("emos-%Y%m%d%H%M%S"), + "trained_at": datetime.now(timezone.utc).isoformat(), + "global": { + "mu": { + "intercept": round(float(mu_coeffs[0]), 8), + "raw_mu_coef": round(float(mu_coeffs[1]), 8), + "deb_coef": round(float(mu_coeffs[2]), 8), + "ens_median_coef": round(float(mu_coeffs[3]), 8), + "max_so_far_gap_coef": round(float(mu_coeffs[4]), 8), + }, + "sigma": { + "intercept": round(float(sigma_coeffs[0]), 8), + "raw_sigma_coef": round(float(sigma_coeffs[1]), 8), + "spread_coef": round(float(sigma_coeffs[2]), 8), + "peak_flag_coef": round(float(sigma_coeffs[3]), 8), + "max_so_far_gap_coef": round(float(sigma_coeffs[4]), 8), + }, + }, + "blending": { + "alpha_mu": round(best_alpha_mu, 6), + "alpha_sigma": round(best_alpha_sigma, 6), + }, + "cities": city_params, + "metrics": { + "sample_count": len(normalized_samples), + "mean_crps": round(sum(crps_values) / len(crps_values), 6), + "legacy_mean_crps": round(legacy_mean_crps, 6), + "legacy_mean_mae": round(legacy_mean_mae, 6), + "legacy_bucket_hit_rate": round(legacy_bucket_hit_rate, 6), + "selected_mean_crps": round(best_metrics["mean_crps"], 6), + "selected_mean_mae": round(best_metrics["mean_mae"], 6), + "selected_bucket_hit_rate": round(best_metrics["bucket_hit_rate"], 6), + "selected_score": round(best_score, 6), + "legacy_score": round(legacy_score, 6), + }, + } + + +def default_calibration_payload( + version: Optional[str] = None, + reason: str = "bootstrap", +) -> Dict[str, Any]: + return { + "version": version or "emos-bootstrap-v1", + "trained_at": datetime.now(timezone.utc).isoformat(), + "global": { + "mu": { + "intercept": 0.0, + "raw_mu_coef": 1.0, + "deb_coef": 0.0, + "ens_median_coef": 0.0, + "max_so_far_gap_coef": 0.0, + }, + "sigma": { + "intercept": 0.0, + "raw_sigma_coef": 1.0, + "spread_coef": 0.0, + "peak_flag_coef": 0.0, + "max_so_far_gap_coef": 0.0, + }, + }, + "blending": { + "alpha_mu": 1.0, + "alpha_sigma": 1.0, + }, + "cities": {}, + "metrics": { + "sample_count": 0, + "mean_crps": None, + "reason": reason, + }, + } diff --git a/src/analysis/trend_engine.py b/src/analysis/trend_engine.py index 424ebe90..7adf8a28 100644 --- a/src/analysis/trend_engine.py +++ b/src/analysis/trend_engine.py @@ -15,7 +15,11 @@ from src.analysis.deb_algorithm import ( update_daily_record, _is_excluded_model_name, ) -from src.analysis.settlement_rounding import wu_round, apply_city_settlement, is_exact_settlement_city +from src.analysis.probability_calibration import ( + apply_probability_calibration, + build_probability_features, +) +from src.analysis.settlement_rounding import apply_city_settlement, is_exact_settlement_city from src.data_collection.city_registry import CITY_REGISTRY from src.data_collection.city_risk_profiles import get_city_risk_profile @@ -431,7 +435,19 @@ def analyze_weather_trend( # === Probability Engine === probabilities: List[Dict[str, Any]] = [] + shadow_probabilities: List[Dict[str, Any]] = [] forecast_miss_deg = 0.0 + probability_features = None + calibration_summary = { + "mode": "legacy", + "engine": "legacy", + "raw_mu": None, + "raw_sigma": sigma, + "calibrated_mu": None, + "calibrated_sigma": None, + "calibration_version": None, + "calibration_source": None, + } if is_dead_market: settled_wu = apply_city_settlement(city_name, max_so_far) if max_so_far is not None else 0 @@ -492,6 +508,43 @@ def analyze_weather_trend( probabilities = probs_result.get("probabilities", []) sorted_probs = probs_result.get("sorted_probs", []) + probability_features = build_probability_features( + city_name=city_name or "", + raw_mu=mu, + raw_sigma=sigma, + deb_prediction=deb_prediction, + ens_data=ens_data, + current_forecasts=current_forecasts, + max_so_far=max_so_far, + peak_status=peak_status, + local_hour_frac=local_hour_frac, + ) + calibration_result = apply_probability_calibration( + city_name=city_name or "", + temp_symbol=temp_symbol, + raw_mu=mu, + raw_sigma=sigma, + max_so_far=max_so_far, + legacy_distribution=probabilities, + features=probability_features, + ) + calibration_summary = { + "mode": calibration_result.get("mode", "legacy"), + "engine": calibration_result.get("engine", "legacy"), + "raw_mu": calibration_result.get("raw_mu"), + "raw_sigma": calibration_result.get("raw_sigma"), + "calibrated_mu": calibration_result.get("calibrated_mu"), + "calibrated_sigma": calibration_result.get("calibrated_sigma"), + "calibration_version": calibration_result.get("calibration_version"), + "calibration_source": calibration_result.get("calibration_source"), + } + shadow_probabilities = calibration_result.get("shadow_distribution") or [] + if calibration_result.get("engine") == "emos": + mu = calibration_result.get("calibrated_mu", mu) + sigma = calibration_result.get("calibrated_sigma", sigma) + probabilities = calibration_result.get("distribution") or probabilities + sorted_probs = calibration_result.get("selected_sorted_probs") or sorted_probs + if sorted_probs: prob_parts = [ f"{int(t)}{temp_symbol} [{t - 0.5}~{t + 0.5}) {p * 100:.0f}%" @@ -650,6 +703,7 @@ def analyze_weather_trend( # === Save daily record (with μ + prob snapshot) === try: _prob_list = None + _shadow_prob_list = None if sorted_probs: _prob_list = [ {"value": int(t), "probability": round(p, 3)} @@ -657,6 +711,12 @@ def analyze_weather_trend( ] elif is_dead_market and max_so_far is not None: _prob_list = [{"value": apply_city_settlement(city_name, max_so_far), "probability": 1.0}] + if shadow_probabilities: + _shadow_prob_list = [ + {"value": int(row.get("value")), "probability": round(float(row.get("probability") or 0.0), 3)} + for row in shadow_probabilities[:4] + if row.get("value") is not None + ] update_daily_record( city_name, @@ -666,6 +726,9 @@ def analyze_weather_trend( deb_prediction=_deb_to_save, mu=mu, probabilities=_prob_list, + probability_features=probability_features, + shadow_probabilities=_shadow_prob_list, + calibration_summary=calibration_summary, ) except Exception: pass @@ -679,6 +742,15 @@ def analyze_weather_trend( structured = { "mu": mu, "probabilities": probabilities, + "shadow_probabilities": shadow_probabilities, + "probability_engine": calibration_summary["engine"], + "probability_calibration_mode": calibration_summary["mode"], + "probability_calibration_version": calibration_summary["calibration_version"], + "probability_calibration_source": calibration_summary["calibration_source"], + "probability_raw_mu": calibration_summary["raw_mu"], + "probability_raw_sigma": calibration_summary["raw_sigma"], + "probability_calibrated_mu": calibration_summary["calibrated_mu"], + "probability_calibrated_sigma": calibration_summary["calibrated_sigma"], "trend_info": { "direction": trend_direction if 'trend_direction' in dir() else "unknown", "recent": recent_list, @@ -711,7 +783,7 @@ def calculate_prob_distribution( def _norm_cdf(x, m, s): # 0.5 * (1 + erf( (x-m)/(s*sqrt(2)) )) - return 0.5 * (1 + math.erf((x - m) / (sigma * math.sqrt(2)))) + return 0.5 * (1 + math.erf((x - m) / (s * math.sqrt(2)))) min_possible_wu = apply_city_settlement(city_name, max_so_far) if max_so_far is not None else -999 probs = {} diff --git a/src/data_collection/metar_sources.py b/src/data_collection/metar_sources.py new file mode 100644 index 00000000..f5912ac8 --- /dev/null +++ b/src/data_collection/metar_sources.py @@ -0,0 +1,268 @@ +from __future__ import annotations + +import re +import time +from datetime import datetime, timedelta, timezone +from typing import Dict, List, Optional + +import requests +from loguru import logger + + +class MetarSourceMixin: + def get_icao_code(self, city: str) -> Optional[str]: + """根据城市名获取对应的 ICAO 机场代码""" + normalized = city.lower().strip() + if normalized in self.CITY_TO_ICAO: + return self.CITY_TO_ICAO[normalized] + for key, icao in self.CITY_TO_ICAO.items(): + if key in normalized or normalized in key: + return icao + return None + + def fetch_metar( + self, city: str, use_fahrenheit: bool = False, utc_offset: int = 0 + ) -> Optional[Dict]: + """从 NOAA Aviation Weather Center 获取 METAR 航空气象数据。""" + icao = self.get_icao_code(city) + if not icao: + logger.warning(f"未找到城市 {city} 对应的 ICAO 代码") + return None + + cache_key = f"{icao}:{utc_offset}:{use_fahrenheit}" + now_ts = time.time() + with self._metar_cache_lock: + cached = self._metar_cache.get(cache_key) + if cached and now_ts - cached["t"] < self.metar_cache_ttl_sec: + logger.debug(f"METAR cache hit {icao} age={int(now_ts - cached['t'])}s") + return cached["d"] + + try: + url = "https://aviationweather.gov/api/data/metar" + params = { + "ids": icao, + "format": "json", + "hours": 24, + "_t": int(time.time()), + } + response = self.session.get(url, params=params, timeout=self.timeout) + response.raise_for_status() + + data = response.json() + if not data: + return None + + latest = data[0] + temp_c = latest.get("temp") + dewp_c = latest.get("dewp") + + def _parse_rawob_time(obs): + raw = obs.get("rawOb", "") + match = re.search(r"(\d{2})(\d{2})(\d{2})Z", raw) + if match: + _day, hour, minute = ( + int(match.group(1)), + int(match.group(2)), + int(match.group(3)), + ) + fallback = obs.get("reportTime", "") + try: + clean = fallback.replace(" ", "T") + if not clean.endswith("Z"): + clean += "Z" + base_dt = datetime.fromisoformat(clean.replace("Z", "+00:00")) + result = base_dt.replace(hour=hour, minute=minute, second=0) + if result > base_dt + timedelta(hours=2): + result -= timedelta(days=1) + return result + except Exception: + pass + fallback = obs.get("reportTime", "") + try: + clean = fallback.replace(" ", "T") + if not clean.endswith("Z"): + clean += "Z" + return datetime.fromisoformat(clean.replace("Z", "+00:00")) + except Exception: + return None + + obs_dt = _parse_rawob_time(latest) + obs_time = ( + obs_dt.strftime("%Y-%m-%dT%H:%M:%S.000Z") + if obs_dt + else latest.get("reportTime", "") + ) + + now_utc = datetime.now(timezone.utc) + local_now = now_utc + timedelta(seconds=utc_offset) + local_midnight = local_now.replace(hour=0, minute=0, second=0, microsecond=0) + utc_midnight = local_midnight - timedelta(seconds=utc_offset) + + max_so_far_c = -999 + max_temp_time = None + for obs in data: + obs_dt_iter = _parse_rawob_time(obs) + if obs_dt_iter is None: + continue + try: + if obs_dt_iter >= utc_midnight: + temp_value = obs.get("temp") + if temp_value is not None and temp_value > max_so_far_c: + max_so_far_c = temp_value + local_report = obs_dt_iter + timedelta(seconds=utc_offset) + max_temp_time = local_report.strftime("%H:%M") + except Exception: + continue + + recent_temps_raw = [] + recent_obs_raw = [] + today_obs_raw = [] + cloud_rank_map = { + "CLR": 0, + "SKC": 0, + "FEW": 1, + "SCT": 2, + "BKN": 3, + "OVC": 4, + } + for index, obs in enumerate(data): + obs_temp = obs.get("temp") + obs_dt_iter = _parse_rawob_time(obs) + if obs_temp is not None and obs_dt_iter: + local_rt = obs_dt_iter + timedelta(seconds=utc_offset) + time_str = local_rt.strftime("%H:%M") + if obs_dt_iter >= utc_midnight: + today_obs_raw.append((time_str, obs_temp)) + if index < 4: + recent_temps_raw.append((time_str, obs_temp)) + clouds = obs.get("clouds", []) + max_cloud_rank = 0 + for cloud in clouds: + rank = cloud_rank_map.get(cloud.get("cover", ""), 0) + if rank > max_cloud_rank: + max_cloud_rank = rank + recent_obs_raw.append( + { + "time": time_str, + "temp": obs_temp, + "wdir": obs.get("wdir"), + "wspd": obs.get("wspd"), + "cloud_rank": max_cloud_rank, + "altim": obs.get("altim"), + } + ) + + if use_fahrenheit: + temp = temp_c * 9 / 5 + 32 if temp_c is not None else None + max_so_far = max_so_far_c * 9 / 5 + 32 if max_so_far_c > -900 else None + dewp = dewp_c * 9 / 5 + 32 if dewp_c is not None else None + unit = "fahrenheit" + recent_temps = [(t, round(v * 9 / 5 + 32, 1)) for t, v in recent_temps_raw] + today_obs = [(t, round(v * 9 / 5 + 32, 1)) for t, v in today_obs_raw] + else: + temp = temp_c + max_so_far = max_so_far_c if max_so_far_c > -900 else None + dewp = dewp_c + unit = "celsius" + recent_temps = [(t, v) for t, v in recent_temps_raw] + today_obs = [(t, v) for t, v in today_obs_raw] + + result = { + "source": "metar", + "icao": icao, + "station_name": latest.get("name", icao), + "timestamp": datetime.utcnow().isoformat(), + "observation_time": obs_time, + "report_time": latest.get("reportTime"), + "receipt_time": latest.get("receiptTime"), + "obs_time_epoch": latest.get("obsTime"), + "current": { + "temp": round(temp, 1) if temp is not None else None, + "max_temp_so_far": round(max_so_far, 1) if max_so_far is not None else None, + "max_temp_time": max_temp_time, + "dewpoint": round(dewp, 1) if dewp is not None else None, + "humidity": latest.get("rh"), + "wind_speed_kt": latest.get("wspd"), + "wind_dir": latest.get("wdir"), + "visibility_mi": latest.get("visib"), + "wx_desc": latest.get("wxString"), + "altimeter": latest.get("altim"), + "raw_metar": latest.get("rawOb"), + "clouds": latest.get("clouds", []), + }, + "recent_temps": recent_temps, + "today_obs": today_obs, + "recent_obs": recent_obs_raw, + "unit": unit, + } + + logger.info( + f"✈️ METAR {icao}: {temp:.1f}°{'F' if use_fahrenheit else 'C'} (obs: {obs_time})" + ) + with self._metar_cache_lock: + self._metar_cache[cache_key] = {"d": result, "t": now_ts} + return result + + except requests.exceptions.RequestException as exc: + logger.error(f"METAR 请求失败 ({icao}): {exc}") + with self._metar_cache_lock: + stale = self._metar_cache.get(cache_key) + if stale: + logger.warning(f"METAR {icao} 请求失败，使用缓存回退") + return stale["d"] + return None + except (KeyError, IndexError, TypeError) as exc: + logger.error(f"METAR 数据解析失败 ({icao}): {exc}") + return None + + def fetch_metar_nearby_cluster(self, icaos: List[str], use_fahrenheit: bool = False) -> list: + """批量获取一组 ICAO 站点的 METAR 数据，用于地图周边显示。""" + if not icaos: + return [] + + results = [] + try: + ids_str = ",".join(icaos) + url = f"https://aviationweather.gov/api/data/metar?ids={ids_str}&format=json" + headers = { + "User-Agent": "Mozilla/5.0 (Windows NT 10.0; Win64; x64) AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko) Chrome/120.0.0.0 Safari/537.36", + } + resp = self.session.get(url, headers=headers, timeout=self.timeout) + if resp.status_code != 200: + logger.warning(f"METAR cluster fetch HTTP {resp.status_code} for {icaos}") + return [] + + data = resp.json() + if not isinstance(data, list): + return [] + + for obs in data: + icao = obs.get("icaoId") + lat = obs.get("lat") + lon = obs.get("lon") + temp_c = obs.get("temp") + if icao and lat and lon and temp_c is not None: + display_temp = (temp_c * 9 / 5) + 32 if use_fahrenheit else temp_c + name = obs.get("name") or icao + name = name.split(" Airport")[0].split(" Intl")[0].split(" International")[0].split(" Arpt")[0].split(",")[0].strip() + results.append( + { + "name": name, + "lat": lat, + "lon": lon, + "temp": round(display_temp, 1), + "istNo": icao, + "icao": icao, + "wind_dir": obs.get("wdir"), + "wind_speed": obs.get("wspd"), + "wind_speed_kt": obs.get("wspd"), + "raw_metar": obs.get("rawOb"), + } + ) + + if results: + logger.info(f"📍 METAR 集群: 成功抓取 {len(results)} 个参考站数据") + return results + except Exception as exc: + logger.error(f"Failed to fetch METAR cluster {icaos}: {exc}") + return [] diff --git a/src/data_collection/mgm_sources.py b/src/data_collection/mgm_sources.py new file mode 100644 index 00000000..254acd71 --- /dev/null +++ b/src/data_collection/mgm_sources.py @@ -0,0 +1,318 @@ +from __future__ import annotations + +from datetime import datetime, timedelta +from typing import Dict, Optional + +from loguru import logger + + +class MgmSourceMixin: + def fetch_from_mgm(self, istno: str) -> Optional[Dict]: + """ + 从土耳其气象局 (MGM) 获取实时数据和预测 (由用户提供其内部 API) + """ + base_url = "https://servis.mgm.gov.tr/web" + # 必须带 Origin，否则会被反爬拦截 + headers = { + "Origin": "https://www.mgm.gov.tr", + "User-Agent": "Mozilla/5.0 (Windows NT 10.0; Win64; x64) AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko) Chrome/120.0.0.0 Safari/537.36", + } + results = {} + + try: + # 1. 实时数据 (添加时间戳防止 CDN 缓存) + import time + + obs_resp = self.session.get( + f"{base_url}/sondurumlar?istno={istno}&_={int(time.time() * 1000)}", + headers=headers, + timeout=self.timeout, + ) + if obs_resp.status_code == 200: + data = obs_resp.json() + if data: + latest = data[0] if isinstance(data, list) else data + # MGM 数据字段映射 + # ruzgarHiz 实测为 km/h，转为 m/s 需要除以 3.6 + ruz_hiz_kmh = latest.get("ruzgarHiz", 0) + + # MGM 返回 -9999 表示数据缺失，需要过滤 + def _valid(v): + return v is not None and v > -9000 + + results["current"] = { + "temp": latest.get("sicaklik") + if _valid(latest.get("sicaklik")) + else None, + "feels_like": latest.get("hissedilenSicaklik") + if _valid(latest.get("hissedilenSicaklik")) + else None, + "humidity": latest.get("nem") + if _valid(latest.get("nem")) + else None, + "wind_speed_ms": round(ruz_hiz_kmh / 3.6, 1) + if _valid(ruz_hiz_kmh) + else None, + "wind_speed_kt": round(ruz_hiz_kmh / 1.852, 1) + if _valid(ruz_hiz_kmh) + else None, + "wind_dir": latest.get("ruzgarYon") + if _valid(latest.get("ruzgarYon")) + else None, + "rain_24h": latest.get("toplamYagis") + if _valid(latest.get("toplamYagis")) + else None, + "pressure": latest.get("aktuelBasinc") + if _valid(latest.get("aktuelBasinc")) + else None, + "cloud_cover": latest.get("kapalilik"), # 0-8 八分位云量 + "mgm_max_temp": latest.get("maxSicaklik") + if _valid(latest.get("maxSicaklik")) + else None, + "time": latest.get("veriZamani"), + "station_name": latest.get("istasyonAd") + or latest.get("adi") + or latest.get("merkezAd") + or "Ankara Bölge", + } + + # 2. 每日预报（尝试两个可能的 API 路径） + forecast_urls = [ + f"{base_url}/tahminler/gunluk?istno={istno}", + f"https://servis.mgm.gov.tr/api/tahminler/gunluk?istno={istno}", + ] + for forecast_url in forecast_urls: + try: + daily_resp = self.session.get( + forecast_url, headers=headers, timeout=self.timeout + ) + if daily_resp.status_code == 200: + forecasts = daily_resp.json() + if forecasts and isinstance(forecasts, list): + # Store today extra clearly + today = forecasts[0] + high_val = today.get("enYuksekGun1") + low_val = today.get("enDusukGun1") + if high_val is not None: + results["today_high"] = high_val + results["today_low"] = low_val + logger.info(f"📋 MGM 每日预报: 今天的最高温 {high_val}°C") + + # Store all 5 days for multi_model_daily + results["daily_forecasts"] = {} + for i, day in enumerate(forecasts[:5]): + d_high = day.get("enYuksekGun1") + if d_high is not None: + # Calculate date (today + offset) + target_date = (datetime.now() + timedelta(days=i)).strftime("%Y-%m-%d") + results["daily_forecasts"][target_date] = d_high + break + else: + logger.debug( + f"MGM forecast URL {forecast_url} returned {daily_resp.status_code}" + ) + except Exception as e: + logger.debug(f"MGM forecast URL {forecast_url} failed: {e}") + + # 3. 小时预报 + try: + hourly_resp = self.session.get( + f"{base_url}/tahminler/saatlik?istno={istno}", + headers=headers, + timeout=self.timeout + ) + if hourly_resp.status_code == 200: + h_data = hourly_resp.json() + if h_data and isinstance(h_data, list): + tahmin_list = h_data[0].get("tahmin", []) + results["hourly"] = [] + for t_data in tahmin_list: + if "tarih" in t_data and "sicaklik" in t_data: + results["hourly"].append({ + "time": t_data["tarih"], + "temp": t_data["sicaklik"] + }) + except Exception as e: + logger.debug(f"MGM hourly failed: {e}") + + # 4. Fallback for today_high (if daily forecast is missing it) + if "today_high" not in results: + # Try from current max + cur_max = results.get("current", {}).get("mgm_max_temp") + if cur_max is not None: + results["today_high"] = cur_max + logger.info(f"📋 MGM 每日预报: 使用当前测站最高温作为今日预报回退: {cur_max}°C") + elif "hourly" in results and results["hourly"]: + # Try from hourly + h_max = max((h["temp"] for h in results["hourly"] if h["temp"] is not None), default=None) + if h_max is not None: + results["today_high"] = h_max + logger.info(f"📋 MGM 每日预报: 使用小时预报最高温作为今日预报回退: {h_max}°C") + + # 5. Fallback for daily_forecasts from hourly data + if not results.get("daily_forecasts") and results.get("hourly"): + # Guardrail: avoid treating short intraday snippets as full-day highs. + hourly_rows = results.get("hourly") or [] + parsed_times = [] + for h in hourly_rows: + t = str(h.get("time") or "") + if "T" not in t: + continue + try: + parsed_times.append(datetime.fromisoformat(t.replace("Z", "+00:00"))) + except Exception: + continue + + horizon_hours = 0.0 + if len(parsed_times) >= 2: + parsed_times.sort() + horizon_hours = ( + parsed_times[-1] - parsed_times[0] + ).total_seconds() / 3600.0 + + if len(hourly_rows) >= 24 or horizon_hours >= 30: + from collections import defaultdict + + daily_max = defaultdict(list) + for h in hourly_rows: + t = h.get("time", "") + temp = h.get("temp") + if t and temp is not None: + # Extract date from ISO timestamp like "2026-03-05T12:00:00.000Z" + date_str = t[:10] + daily_max[date_str].append(temp) + if daily_max: + results["daily_forecasts"] = {} + for d, temps in sorted(daily_max.items()): + results["daily_forecasts"][d] = max(temps) + logger.info( + f"📋 MGM daily_forecasts (from hourly fallback): " + f"{dict(results['daily_forecasts'])}" + ) + else: + logger.info( + "📋 Skip MGM daily_forecasts hourly fallback: " + f"hourly points={len(hourly_rows)}, horizon={horizon_hours:.1f}h" + ) + + return results if "current" in results else None + except Exception as e: + logger.error(f"MGM API 请求失败 ({istno}): {e}") + return None + + def fetch_mgm_nearby_stations(self, province: str, root_ist_no: str = None) -> list: + """ + 获取一个土耳其省份内所有气象站的当前温度及经纬度 + 使用多线程辅助抓取，因为直接通过 il={province} 往往只返回 1 个站。 + """ + base_url = "https://servis.mgm.gov.tr/web" + headers = { + "Origin": "https://www.mgm.gov.tr", + "User-Agent": "Mozilla/5.0", + } + import time + from concurrent.futures import ThreadPoolExecutor + + results = [] + try: + # 1. 加载测站元数据 (缓存到实例中)，用于过滤属于该省份的站点 + if not getattr(self, "mgm_stations_meta", None): + meta_resp = self.session.get(f"{base_url}/istasyonlar", headers=headers, timeout=self.timeout) + if meta_resp.status_code == 200: + meta_json = meta_resp.json() + if isinstance(meta_json, list): + self.mgm_stations_meta = {s["istNo"]: s for s in meta_json if "istNo" in s} + else: + self.mgm_stations_meta = {} + + metadata = getattr(self, "mgm_stations_meta", {}) + + # 2. 找出属于该省份的所有站点 istNo + province_upper = province.upper() + province_ist_nos = [ + ist_no for ist_no, s in metadata.items() + if (s.get("il") or "").upper() == province_upper + ] + + if not province_ist_nos: + logger.warning(f"MGM 找不到省份 {province} 的站点元数据") + return [] + + # 同时确保我们关心的几个核心站一定在里面 + target_ist_nos = [str(i) for i in province_ist_nos[:25]] + # 17130: 安卡拉总站 (市区核心) + if 17130 in province_ist_nos or "17130" in province_ist_nos: + if "17130" not in target_ist_nos: + target_ist_nos.append("17130") + # 17128: 机场官方站 + if 17128 in province_ist_nos or "17128" in province_ist_nos: + if "17128" not in target_ist_nos: + target_ist_nos.append("17128") + if root_ist_no: + rs = str(root_ist_no) + if rs not in target_ist_nos: + target_ist_nos.append(rs) + + # 3. 多线程获取每个站点的最新观测 (sondurumlar) + def fetch_single_station(ist_no): + try: + # sondurumlar?istno={ist_no} 是目前最稳的获取多站数据的办法 + url = f"{base_url}/sondurumlar?istno={ist_no}&_={int(time.time() * 1000)}" + resp = self.session.get(url, headers=headers, timeout=5) + if resp.status_code == 200: + obs_list = resp.json() + if obs_list: + obs = obs_list[0] if isinstance(obs_list, list) else obs_list + temp = obs.get("sicaklik") + wind_speed = obs.get("ruzgarHiz") + wind_dir = obs.get("ruzgarYon") + if temp is not None and temp > -9000: + return ist_no, {"temp": temp, "wind_speed": wind_speed, "wind_dir": wind_dir} + except Exception: + pass + return None, None + + # 并发抓取 + station_temps = {} + with ThreadPoolExecutor(max_workers=10) as executor: + fetch_results = list(executor.map(fetch_single_station, target_ist_nos)) + for ist_no, data in fetch_results: + if ist_no is not None: + station_temps[ist_no] = data + + # 4. 组装最终结果 + for ist_no, temp in station_temps.items(): + sid = str(ist_no) + # metadata 可能使用 int 或 str 作为 key + meta = metadata.get(sid) or metadata.get(int(sid)) + if not meta: + continue + + lat = meta.get("enlem") + lon = meta.get("boylam") + # 优先显示区县名，地图更清晰 + display_name = (meta.get("ilce") or meta.get("istAd") or f"Station {ist_no}").title() + + # 特殊处理核心站点的显示名称 + sid = str(ist_no) + if sid == "17130": + display_name = "Ankara (Bölge/Center)" + elif sid == "17128": + display_name = "Airport (MGM/17128)" + + results.append({ + "name": display_name, + "lat": lat, + "lon": lon, + "temp": temp.get("temp") if isinstance(temp, dict) else temp, + "wind_speed": temp.get("wind_speed") if isinstance(temp, dict) else None, + "wind_dir": temp.get("wind_dir") if isinstance(temp, dict) else None, + "istNo": ist_no + }) + + logger.info(f"📍 MGM 周边测站: 成功并发抓取 {len(results)} 个 {province} 站点的实时气温") + return results + except Exception as e: + logger.error(f"Failed to fetch MGM nearby stations for {province}: {e}") + return [] + diff --git a/src/data_collection/nws_open_meteo_sources.py b/src/data_collection/nws_open_meteo_sources.py new file mode 100644 index 00000000..40983ad7 --- /dev/null +++ b/src/data_collection/nws_open_meteo_sources.py @@ -0,0 +1,578 @@ +from __future__ import annotations + +import time +from datetime import datetime, timedelta +from typing import Dict, Optional + +from loguru import logger + + +class NwsOpenMeteoSourceMixin: + def fetch_nws(self, lat: float, lon: float) -> Optional[Dict]: + """ + 从 NWS (美国国家气象局) 获取高精度预报 + 仅适用于美国城市，全球 VPS 均可访问 + """ + try: + # 1. 获取网格点 + points_url = f"https://api.weather.gov/points/{lat},{lon}" + headers = {"User-Agent": "PolyWeather/1.0 (weather-bot)"} + + points_resp = self.session.get( + points_url, headers=headers, timeout=self.timeout + ) + points_resp.raise_for_status() + points_data = points_resp.json() + + properties = points_data.get("properties", {}) + forecast_url = properties.get("forecast") + hourly_url = properties.get("forecastHourly") + if not forecast_url: + return None + + # 2. 获取预报 + forecast_resp = self.session.get( + forecast_url, headers=headers, timeout=self.timeout + ) + forecast_resp.raise_for_status() + forecast_data = forecast_resp.json() + + periods = forecast_data.get("properties", {}).get("periods", []) + if not periods: + return None + + hourly_periods = [] + if hourly_url: + hourly_resp = self.session.get( + hourly_url, headers=headers, timeout=self.timeout + ) + hourly_resp.raise_for_status() + hourly_data = hourly_resp.json() + hourly_periods = hourly_data.get("properties", {}).get("periods", [])[:48] + + active_alerts = [] + try: + alerts_resp = self.session.get( + "https://api.weather.gov/alerts/active", + params={"point": f"{lat},{lon}"}, + headers=headers, + timeout=self.timeout, + ) + alerts_resp.raise_for_status() + alerts_data = alerts_resp.json() + for feature in alerts_data.get("features", [])[:8]: + ap = feature.get("properties", {}) + active_alerts.append( + { + "event": ap.get("event"), + "headline": ap.get("headline"), + "severity": ap.get("severity"), + "certainty": ap.get("certainty"), + "urgency": ap.get("urgency"), + "effective": ap.get("effective"), + "ends": ap.get("ends"), + } + ) + except Exception: + active_alerts = [] + + # 3. 提取今日最高温（找 isDaytime=True 的第一个） + today_high = None + for p in periods: + if p.get("isDaytime") and "High" in p.get("name", ""): + today_high = p.get("temperature") + break + # 如果没有明确的 High，取第一个 daytime 的温度 + if today_high is None: + for p in periods: + if p.get("isDaytime"): + today_high = p.get("temperature") + break + + return { + "source": "nws", + "today_high": today_high, + "unit": "fahrenheit", + "forecast_periods": [ + { + "name": p.get("name"), + "start_time": p.get("startTime"), + "end_time": p.get("endTime"), + "is_daytime": p.get("isDaytime"), + "temperature": p.get("temperature"), + "temperature_trend": p.get("temperatureTrend"), + "wind_speed": p.get("windSpeed"), + "wind_direction": p.get("windDirection"), + "short_forecast": p.get("shortForecast"), + "detailed_forecast": p.get("detailedForecast"), + "precipitation_probability": (p.get("probabilityOfPrecipitation") or {}).get("value"), + } + for p in periods[:14] + ], + "hourly_periods": [ + { + "start_time": p.get("startTime"), + "end_time": p.get("endTime"), + "temperature": p.get("temperature"), + "temperature_unit": p.get("temperatureUnit"), + "wind_speed": p.get("windSpeed"), + "wind_direction": p.get("windDirection"), + "short_forecast": p.get("shortForecast"), + "precipitation_probability": (p.get("probabilityOfPrecipitation") or {}).get("value"), + } + for p in hourly_periods + ], + "active_alerts": active_alerts, + } + except Exception as e: + logger.warning(f"NWS 请求失败: {e}") + return None + + def fetch_from_open_meteo( + self, + lat: float, + lon: float, + forecast_days: int = 14, + use_fahrenheit: bool = False, + ) -> Optional[Dict]: + """ + Fetch weather from Open-Meteo with forecast data + + Args: + lat: Latitude + lon: Longitude + forecast_days: Number of forecast days to fetch (default 14 to cover all market dates) + use_fahrenheit: Whether to return temperatures in Fahrenheit (for US markets) + """ + cache_key = ( + f"{round(float(lat), 4)}:{round(float(lon), 4)}:" + f"{forecast_days}:{'f' if use_fahrenheit else 'c'}" + ) + self._maybe_reload_open_meteo_disk_cache() + now_ts = time.time() + # ── 429 冷却期检查（所有 Open-Meteo 端点共享）───────────────── + with self._open_meteo_rl_lock: + if now_ts < self._open_meteo_rate_limit_until: + remaining = int(self._open_meteo_rate_limit_until - now_ts) + logger.debug(f"Open-Meteo 冷却期中，跳过请求，还需 {remaining}s") + with self._open_meteo_cache_lock: + stale = self._open_meteo_cache.get(cache_key) + if stale and isinstance(stale.get("data"), dict): + return dict(stale["data"]) + return None + with self._open_meteo_cache_lock: + cached = self._open_meteo_cache.get(cache_key) + if ( + cached + and now_ts - float(cached.get("t", 0)) < self.open_meteo_cache_ttl_sec + ): + cached_data = cached.get("data") + if isinstance(cached_data, dict): + return dict(cached_data) + try: + url = "https://api.open-meteo.com/v1/forecast" + params = { + "latitude": lat, + "longitude": lon, + "current_weather": "true", + "hourly": "temperature_2m,shortwave_radiation,dew_point_2m,pressure_msl,wind_speed_10m,wind_direction_10m,precipitation_probability,cloud_cover", + "daily": "temperature_2m_max,apparent_temperature_max,sunrise,sunset,sunshine_duration", + "timezone": "auto", + "forecast_days": forecast_days, + } + + # 显式指定单位，防止 API 默认行为漂移 + if use_fahrenheit: + params["temperature_unit"] = "fahrenheit" + else: + params["temperature_unit"] = "celsius" + + self._wait_open_meteo_slot("forecast") + response = self.session.get( + url, + params=params, + timeout=self.timeout, + ) + response.raise_for_status() + data = response.json() + + current = data.get("current_weather", {}) + utc_offset = data.get("utc_offset_seconds", 0) + timezone_name = data.get("timezone", "UTC") + + # 处理多模型数据 (如果请求了 models 参数，返回结构会变化) + daily_data = data.get("daily", {}) + if "temperature_2m_max_ecmwf_ifs04" in daily_data: + ecmwf_max = daily_data.get("temperature_2m_max_ecmwf_ifs04", []) + hrrr_max = daily_data.get("temperature_2m_max_ncep_hrrr_conus", []) + + # 记录今日模型分歧 + daily_data["model_split"] = { + "ecmwf": ecmwf_max[0] if ecmwf_max else None, + "hrrr": hrrr_max[0] if hrrr_max else None, + } + + # 智能合并：HRRR 仅覆盖 48 小时，远期用 ECMWF 补全 + merged_max = [] + for i in range(len(ecmwf_max)): + hrrr_val = hrrr_max[i] if i < len(hrrr_max) else None + ecmwf_val = ecmwf_max[i] if i < len(ecmwf_max) else None + + # 优先 HRRR，其次 ECMWF，都没有就跳过 + if hrrr_val is not None: + merged_max.append(hrrr_val) + elif ecmwf_val is not None: + merged_max.append(ecmwf_val) + else: + # 两个都没有，用占位符 (理论上不应该发生) + merged_max.append(ecmwf_val) # None + daily_data["temperature_2m_max"] = merged_max + + # 映射逐小时数据 + hourly_data = data.get("hourly", {}) + if "temperature_2m_ncep_hrrr_conus" in hourly_data: + hourly_data["temperature_2m"] = hourly_data[ + "temperature_2m_ncep_hrrr_conus" + ] + + # 计算精确的当地时间 + now_utc = datetime.utcnow() + local_now = now_utc + timedelta(seconds=utc_offset) + local_time_str = local_now.strftime("%Y-%m-%d %H:%M") + + result = { + "source": "open-meteo", + "timestamp": now_utc.isoformat(), + "timezone": timezone_name, + "utc_offset": utc_offset, + "current": { + "temp": current.get("temperature"), + "local_time": local_time_str, + }, + "hourly": hourly_data, + "daily": daily_data, + "unit": "fahrenheit" if use_fahrenheit else "celsius", + } + with self._open_meteo_cache_lock: + self._open_meteo_cache[cache_key] = { + "t": time.time(), + "data": dict(result), + } + self._flush_open_meteo_disk_cache() + return result + except Exception as e: + status_code = getattr(getattr(e, "response", None), "status_code", None) + if status_code == 429: + retry_after_str = getattr(e.response, "headers", {}).get("Retry-After") + cooldown_to_use = self._open_meteo_rl_cooldown + if retry_after_str: + try: + parsed = int(retry_after_str) + if parsed > 0: + cooldown_to_use = min(parsed + 60, 3600) # Add 60s buffer, max 1 hour + logger.info(f"Open-Meteo 响应包含 Retry-After: {retry_after_str}s") + except ValueError: + pass + logger.warning( + f"Open-Meteo rate limited (429), fallback to cache if available: lat={lat}, lon={lon}" + ) + # 设置全局冷却期，避免短时内重复触发 429 + with self._open_meteo_rl_lock: + self._open_meteo_rate_limit_until = time.time() + cooldown_to_use + logger.warning(f"Open-Meteo 触发限流，设置 {cooldown_to_use}s 冷却期") + else: + logger.error(f"Open-Meteo forecast failed: {e}") + with self._open_meteo_cache_lock: + stale = self._open_meteo_cache.get(cache_key) + if stale and isinstance(stale.get("data"), dict): + fallback = dict(stale["data"]) + fallback["stale_cache"] = True + return fallback + return None + + def fetch_ensemble( + self, + lat: float, + lon: float, + use_fahrenheit: bool = False, + ) -> Optional[Dict]: + """ + 从 Open-Meteo Ensemble API 获取 51 成员集合预报 + 用于计算预报不确定性范围（散度） + """ + cache_key = ( + f"{round(float(lat), 4)}:{round(float(lon), 4)}:" + f"{'f' if use_fahrenheit else 'c'}" + ) + self._maybe_reload_open_meteo_disk_cache() + now_ts = time.time() + # ── 429 冷却期检查（所有 Open-Meteo 端点共享）───────────────── + with self._open_meteo_rl_lock: + if now_ts < self._open_meteo_rate_limit_until: + remaining = int(self._open_meteo_rate_limit_until - now_ts) + logger.debug(f"Open-Meteo Ensemble 冷却期中，跳过请求，还需 {remaining}s") + with self._ensemble_cache_lock: + stale = self._ensemble_cache.get(cache_key) + if stale and isinstance(stale.get("data"), dict): + return dict(stale["data"]) + return None + + with self._ensemble_cache_lock: + cached = self._ensemble_cache.get(cache_key) + if ( + cached + and now_ts - float(cached.get("t", 0)) + < self.open_meteo_ensemble_cache_ttl_sec + ): + cached_data = cached.get("data") + if isinstance(cached_data, dict): + return dict(cached_data) + try: + url = "https://ensemble-api.open-meteo.com/v1/ensemble" + params = { + "latitude": lat, + "longitude": lon, + "daily": "temperature_2m_max", + "timezone": "auto", + "forecast_days": 3, + } + if use_fahrenheit: + params["temperature_unit"] = "fahrenheit" + else: + params["temperature_unit"] = "celsius" + + self._wait_open_meteo_slot("ensemble") + response = self.session.get( + url, + params=params, + timeout=self.timeout, + ) + response.raise_for_status() + data = response.json() + + daily = data.get("daily", {}) + # 每个成员都会返回一组 temperature_2m_max + # 格式: {"time": [...], "temperature_2m_max_member01": [...], ...} + today_highs = [] + for key, values in daily.items(): + if key.startswith("temperature_2m_max") and key != "temperature_2m_max": + if values and values[0] is not None: + today_highs.append(values[0]) + + # 也检查非成员键（有些返回格式不同） + if not today_highs: + raw_max = daily.get("temperature_2m_max", []) + if isinstance(raw_max, list) and raw_max: + if isinstance(raw_max[0], list): + # 嵌套列表格式: [[member1_day1, member1_day2], [member2_day1, ...]] + today_highs = [m[0] for m in raw_max if m and m[0] is not None] + elif raw_max[0] is not None: + today_highs = [raw_max[0]] + + if len(today_highs) < 3: + logger.warning(f"Ensemble 数据不足: 仅获取 {len(today_highs)} 个成员") + return None + + today_highs.sort() + n = len(today_highs) + median = today_highs[n // 2] + p10 = today_highs[max(0, int(n * 0.1))] + p90 = today_highs[min(n - 1, int(n * 0.9))] + + result = { + "source": "ensemble", + "members": n, + "median": round(median, 1), + "p10": round(p10, 1), + "p90": round(p90, 1), + "min": round(today_highs[0], 1), + "max": round(today_highs[-1], 1), + "unit": "fahrenheit" if use_fahrenheit else "celsius", + } + + logger.info( + f"📊 Ensemble ({n} members): median={median:.1f}, " + f"p10={p10:.1f}, p90={p90:.1f}" + ) + with self._ensemble_cache_lock: + self._ensemble_cache[cache_key] = { + "t": time.time(), + "data": dict(result), + } + self._flush_open_meteo_disk_cache() + return result + except Exception as e: + status_code = getattr(getattr(e, "response", None), "status_code", None) + if status_code == 429: + retry_after_str = getattr(e.response, "headers", {}).get("Retry-After") + cooldown_to_use = self._open_meteo_rl_cooldown + if retry_after_str: + try: + parsed = int(retry_after_str) + if parsed > 0: + cooldown_to_use = min(parsed + 60, 3600) + except ValueError: + pass + logger.warning( + f"Ensemble API rate limited (429), fallback to cache if available: lat={lat}, lon={lon}" + ) + with self._open_meteo_rl_lock: + self._open_meteo_rate_limit_until = time.time() + cooldown_to_use + else: + logger.warning(f"Ensemble API 请求失败: {e}") + with self._ensemble_cache_lock: + stale = self._ensemble_cache.get(cache_key) + if stale and isinstance(stale.get("data"), dict): + fallback = dict(stale["data"]) + fallback["stale_cache"] = True + return fallback + return None + + def fetch_multi_model( + self, + lat: float, + lon: float, + city: str = "", + use_fahrenheit: bool = False, + ) -> Optional[Dict]: + """ + 从 Open-Meteo 获取多个独立 NWP 模型的预报 + 用于真正的多模型共识评分 + + 模型列表: + - ECMWF IFS (欧洲中期天气预报中心) + - GFS (美国 NOAA) + - ICON (德国气象局 DWD) + - GEM (加拿大气象局) + - JMA (日本气象厅) + + 返回 3 天的预报数据，支持今日+明日共识分析 + """ + cache_city = str(city or "").strip().lower() + cache_key = ( + f"{round(float(lat), 4)}:{round(float(lon), 4)}:{cache_city}:" + f"{'f' if use_fahrenheit else 'c'}:{self.multi_model_cache_version}" + ) + self._maybe_reload_open_meteo_disk_cache() + now_ts = time.time() + # ── 429 冷却期检查（所有 Open-Meteo 端点共享）───────────────── + with self._open_meteo_rl_lock: + if now_ts < self._open_meteo_rate_limit_until: + remaining = int(self._open_meteo_rate_limit_until - now_ts) + logger.debug(f"Open-Meteo Multi-model 冷却期中，跳过请求，还需 {remaining}s") + with self._multi_model_cache_lock: + stale = self._multi_model_cache.get(cache_key) + if stale and isinstance(stale.get("data"), dict): + return dict(stale["data"]) + return None + + with self._multi_model_cache_lock: + cached = self._multi_model_cache.get(cache_key) + if ( + cached + and now_ts - float(cached.get("t", 0)) + < self.open_meteo_multi_model_cache_ttl_sec + ): + cached_data = cached.get("data") + if isinstance(cached_data, dict): + return dict(cached_data) + try: + url = "https://api.open-meteo.com/v1/forecast" + models = "ecmwf_ifs025,gfs_seamless,icon_seamless,gem_seamless,jma_seamless" + params = { + "latitude": lat, + "longitude": lon, + "daily": "temperature_2m_max", + "models": models, + "timezone": "auto", + "forecast_days": 3, + } + if use_fahrenheit: + params["temperature_unit"] = "fahrenheit" + + self._wait_open_meteo_slot("multi-model") + response = self.session.get( + url, + params=params, + timeout=self.timeout, + ) + response.raise_for_status() + data = response.json() + + daily = data.get("daily", {}) + dates = daily.get("time", []) + + model_labels = { + "ecmwf_ifs025": "ECMWF", + "gfs_seamless": "GFS", + "icon_seamless": "ICON", + "gem_seamless": "GEM", + "jma_seamless": "JMA", + } + + # 按天提取每个模型的预报 + daily_forecasts = {} # {"2026-02-23": {"ECMWF": 7.9, "GFS": 6.5, ...}, ...} + for day_idx, date_str in enumerate(dates): + day_data = {} + for model_key, label in model_labels.items(): + key = f"temperature_2m_max_{model_key}" + values = daily.get(key, []) + if day_idx < len(values) and values[day_idx] is not None: + day_data[label] = round(values[day_idx], 1) + if day_data: + daily_forecasts[date_str] = day_data + + if not daily_forecasts: + logger.warning("Multi-model: 无有效模型数据") + return None + + # 今天的预报 (向后兼容) + today_date = dates[0] if dates else None + forecasts = daily_forecasts.get(today_date, {}) + + labels_str = ", ".join([f"{k}={v}" for k, v in forecasts.items()]) + logger.info( + f"🔬 Multi-model ({len(forecasts)}个, {len(daily_forecasts)}天): {labels_str}" + ) + + result = { + "source": "multi_model", + "forecasts": forecasts, # 今天 {"ECMWF": 12.3, "GFS": 11.8, ...} (向后兼容) + "daily_forecasts": daily_forecasts, # 按天 {"2026-02-23": {...}, "2026-02-24": {...}} + "dates": dates, + "unit": "fahrenheit" if use_fahrenheit else "celsius", + } + with self._multi_model_cache_lock: + self._multi_model_cache[cache_key] = { + "t": time.time(), + "data": dict(result), + } + self._flush_open_meteo_disk_cache() + return result + except Exception as e: + status_code = getattr(getattr(e, "response", None), "status_code", None) + if status_code == 429: + retry_after_str = getattr(e.response, "headers", {}).get("Retry-After") + cooldown_to_use = self._open_meteo_rl_cooldown + if retry_after_str: + try: + parsed = int(retry_after_str) + if parsed > 0: + cooldown_to_use = min(parsed + 60, 3600) + except ValueError: + pass + logger.warning( + f"Multi-model API rate limited (429), fallback to cache if available: lat={lat}, lon={lon}" + ) + with self._open_meteo_rl_lock: + self._open_meteo_rate_limit_until = time.time() + cooldown_to_use + else: + logger.warning(f"Multi-model API 请求失败: {e}") + with self._multi_model_cache_lock: + stale = self._multi_model_cache.get(cache_key) + if stale and isinstance(stale.get("data"), dict): + fallback = dict(stale["data"]) + fallback["stale_cache"] = True + return fallback + return None + diff --git a/src/data_collection/open_meteo_cache.py b/src/data_collection/open_meteo_cache.py new file mode 100644 index 00000000..87ec1f74 --- /dev/null +++ b/src/data_collection/open_meteo_cache.py @@ -0,0 +1,116 @@ +from __future__ import annotations + +import json +import os +import time + +from loguru import logger + + +class OpenMeteoCacheMixin: + def _load_open_meteo_disk_cache(self) -> None: + """启动时从磁盘加载 Open-Meteo 三类缓存，避免重启后冷启动打爆 API""" + try: + path = self._disk_cache_path + if not os.path.exists(path): + os.makedirs(os.path.dirname(path), exist_ok=True) + with open(path, "w", encoding="utf-8") as f: + json.dump( + { + "forecast": {}, + "ensemble": {}, + "multi_model": {}, + "saved_at": time.time(), + }, + f, + ) + self._disk_cache_last_mtime = os.path.getmtime(path) + return + current_mtime = os.path.getmtime(path) + if current_mtime <= self._disk_cache_last_mtime: + return + with open(path, "r", encoding="utf-8") as f: + saved = json.load(f) + now = time.time() + max_age = max(600, self._disk_cache_max_age_sec) + loaded = 0 + with self._open_meteo_cache_lock: + for key, entry in saved.get("forecast", {}).items(): + if now - float(entry.get("t", 0)) < max_age: + old = self._open_meteo_cache.get(key) + if old is None or float(entry.get("t", 0)) >= float(old.get("t", 0)): + self._open_meteo_cache[key] = entry + loaded += 1 + with self._ensemble_cache_lock: + for key, entry in saved.get("ensemble", {}).items(): + if now - float(entry.get("t", 0)) < max_age: + old = self._ensemble_cache.get(key) + if old is None or float(entry.get("t", 0)) >= float(old.get("t", 0)): + self._ensemble_cache[key] = entry + loaded += 1 + with self._multi_model_cache_lock: + for key, entry in saved.get("multi_model", {}).items(): + if now - float(entry.get("t", 0)) < max_age: + old = self._multi_model_cache.get(key) + if old is None or float(entry.get("t", 0)) >= float(old.get("t", 0)): + self._multi_model_cache[key] = entry + loaded += 1 + self._disk_cache_last_mtime = current_mtime + if loaded: + logger.info(f"✅ 从磁盘加载 Open-Meteo 缓存 {loaded} 条 ({self._disk_cache_path})") + except Exception as exc: + logger.warning(f"磁盘缓存加载失败（首次启动不影响运行）: {exc}") + + def _maybe_reload_open_meteo_disk_cache(self) -> None: + """跨进程共享缓存：当缓存文件有更新时增量重载到当前进程内存""" + try: + path = self._disk_cache_path + if not os.path.exists(path): + return + current_mtime = os.path.getmtime(path) + if current_mtime <= self._disk_cache_last_mtime: + return + self._load_open_meteo_disk_cache() + except Exception: + pass + + def _flush_open_meteo_disk_cache(self) -> None: + """将三类 Open-Meteo 内存缓存持久化到磁盘""" + try: + os.makedirs(os.path.dirname(self._disk_cache_path), exist_ok=True) + with self._open_meteo_cache_lock: + forecast_snapshot = dict(self._open_meteo_cache) + with self._ensemble_cache_lock: + ensemble_snapshot = dict(self._ensemble_cache) + with self._multi_model_cache_lock: + multi_model_snapshot = dict(self._multi_model_cache) + payload = { + "forecast": forecast_snapshot, + "ensemble": ensemble_snapshot, + "multi_model": multi_model_snapshot, + "saved_at": time.time(), + } + with self._disk_cache_lock: + tmp_path = self._disk_cache_path + ".tmp" + with open(tmp_path, "w", encoding="utf-8") as f: + json.dump(payload, f) + os.replace(tmp_path, self._disk_cache_path) + self._disk_cache_last_mtime = os.path.getmtime(self._disk_cache_path) + except Exception as exc: + logger.warning(f"磁盘缓存写入失败: {exc}") + + def _wait_open_meteo_slot(self, endpoint: str) -> None: + """Simple per-process rate gate for Open-Meteo endpoints.""" + min_interval = self._open_meteo_min_interval_sec + if min_interval <= 0: + return + with self._open_meteo_call_lock: + now_ts = time.time() + wait_for = min_interval - (now_ts - self._open_meteo_last_call_ts) + if wait_for > 0: + logger.debug( + f"Open-Meteo {endpoint} 限流保护：sleep {wait_for:.2f}s (min_interval={min_interval:.2f}s)" + ) + time.sleep(wait_for) + now_ts = time.time() + self._open_meteo_last_call_ts = now_ts diff --git a/src/data_collection/settlement_sources.py b/src/data_collection/settlement_sources.py new file mode 100644 index 00000000..62639599 --- /dev/null +++ b/src/data_collection/settlement_sources.py @@ -0,0 +1,269 @@ +from __future__ import annotations + +import csv +import time +from datetime import datetime, timedelta, timezone +from typing import Any, Dict, List, Optional + +from loguru import logger + + +class SettlementSourceMixin: + def _get_settlement_cache(self, key: str) -> Optional[Dict[str, Any]]: + now_ts = time.time() + with self._settlement_cache_lock: + cached = self._settlement_cache.get(key) + if cached and now_ts - float(cached.get("t", 0)) < self.settlement_cache_ttl_sec: + return cached.get("d") + return None + + def _set_settlement_cache(self, key: str, payload: Dict[str, Any]) -> None: + with self._settlement_cache_lock: + self._settlement_cache[key] = {"t": time.time(), "d": payload} + + @staticmethod + def _csv_rows(text: str) -> List[Dict[str, str]]: + normalized = str(text or "").lstrip("") + if not normalized.strip(): + return [] + return [row for row in csv.DictReader(normalized.splitlines()) if isinstance(row, dict)] + + @staticmethod + def _hko_parse_local_iso(raw_yyyymmddhhmm: Optional[str]) -> Optional[str]: + raw = str(raw_yyyymmddhhmm or "").strip() + if len(raw) != 12 or not raw.isdigit(): + return None + try: + dt = datetime.strptime(raw, "%Y%m%d%H%M").replace( + tzinfo=timezone(timedelta(hours=8)) + ) + return dt.isoformat() + except Exception: + return None + + @staticmethod + def _hko_compass_to_deg(compass: Optional[str]) -> Optional[float]: + value = str(compass or "").strip().upper() + if not value: + return None + mapping = { + "N": 0.0, + "NNE": 22.5, + "NE": 45.0, + "ENE": 67.5, + "E": 90.0, + "ESE": 112.5, + "SE": 135.0, + "SSE": 157.5, + "S": 180.0, + "SSW": 202.5, + "SW": 225.0, + "WSW": 247.5, + "W": 270.0, + "WNW": 292.5, + "NW": 315.0, + "NNW": 337.5, + } + return mapping.get(value) + + @staticmethod + def _safe_float(value: Any) -> Optional[float]: + if value is None: + return None + text = str(value).strip() + if not text or text in {"***", "N/A", "NA"}: + return None + try: + return float(text) + except Exception: + return None + + @staticmethod + def _pick_station_row( + rows: List[Dict[str, str]], candidates: List[str] + ) -> Optional[Dict[str, str]]: + if not rows: + return None + normalized_map = { + str(name).strip().lower(): row + for row in rows + for name in [row.get("Automatic Weather Station")] + if isinstance(row, dict) and name + } + for name in candidates: + hit = normalized_map.get(str(name).strip().lower()) + if hit: + return hit + for row in rows: + station = str(row.get("Automatic Weather Station") or "").strip().lower() + if "observatory" in station: + return row + return rows[0] if rows else None + + def fetch_hko_settlement_current(self) -> Optional[Dict[str, Any]]: + cache_key = "hko:hong_kong" + cached = self._get_settlement_cache(cache_key) + if cached: + return cached + + try: + base = "https://data.weather.gov.hk/weatherAPI/hko_data/regional-weather" + temp_csv = self.session.get(f"{base}/latest_1min_temperature.csv", timeout=self.timeout) + temp_csv.raise_for_status() + maxmin_csv = self.session.get(f"{base}/latest_since_midnight_maxmin.csv", timeout=self.timeout) + maxmin_csv.raise_for_status() + humidity_csv = self.session.get(f"{base}/latest_1min_humidity.csv", timeout=self.timeout) + humidity_csv.raise_for_status() + wind_csv = self.session.get(f"{base}/latest_10min_wind.csv", timeout=self.timeout) + wind_csv.raise_for_status() + + temp_rows = self._csv_rows(temp_csv.text) + maxmin_rows = self._csv_rows(maxmin_csv.text) + humidity_rows = self._csv_rows(humidity_csv.text) + wind_rows = self._csv_rows(wind_csv.text) + + station_candidates = ["HK Observatory", "Hong Kong Observatory"] + temp_row = self._pick_station_row(temp_rows, station_candidates) + maxmin_row = self._pick_station_row(maxmin_rows, station_candidates) + humidity_row = self._pick_station_row(humidity_rows, station_candidates) + wind_row = self._pick_station_row(wind_rows, station_candidates) + if not temp_row or not maxmin_row: + return None + + obs_raw = temp_row.get("Date time") or maxmin_row.get("Date time") + obs_iso = self._hko_parse_local_iso(obs_raw) + current_temp = self._safe_float(temp_row.get("Air Temperature(degree Celsius)")) + max_so_far = self._safe_float(maxmin_row.get("Maximum Air Temperature Since Midnight(degree Celsius)")) + min_so_far = self._safe_float(maxmin_row.get("Minimum Air Temperature Since Midnight(degree Celsius)")) + humidity = self._safe_float(humidity_row.get("Relative Humidity(percent)")) if humidity_row else None + wind_speed_kmh = self._safe_float(wind_row.get("10-Minute Mean Speed(km/hour)")) if wind_row else None + wind_speed_kt = round(float(wind_speed_kmh) / 1.852, 1) if wind_speed_kmh is not None else None + wind_dir = self._hko_compass_to_deg( + wind_row.get("10-Minute Mean Wind Direction(Compass points)") if wind_row else None + ) + + payload: Dict[str, Any] = { + "source": "hko", + "source_label": "HKO", + "station_code": "HKO", + "station_name": "HK Observatory", + "observation_time": obs_iso, + "current": { + "temp": round(current_temp, 1) if current_temp is not None else None, + "max_temp_so_far": round(max_so_far, 1) if max_so_far is not None else None, + "max_temp_time": None, + "today_low": round(min_so_far, 1) if min_so_far is not None else None, + "humidity": round(humidity, 1) if humidity is not None else None, + "wind_speed_kt": wind_speed_kt, + "wind_dir": wind_dir, + }, + "unit": "celsius", + } + self._set_settlement_cache(cache_key, payload) + return payload + except Exception as exc: + logger.warning(f"HKO settlement fetch failed: {exc}") + return None + + def fetch_cwa_taipei_settlement_current(self) -> Optional[Dict[str, Any]]: + cache_key = "cwa:taipei:466920" + cached = self._get_settlement_cache(cache_key) + if cached: + return cached + + try: + url = "https://opendata.cwa.gov.tw/api/v1/rest/datastore/O-A0003-001" + response = self.session.get( + url, + params={"Authorization": self.cwa_open_data_auth, "format": "JSON", "StationId": "466920"}, + timeout=self.timeout, + ) + response.raise_for_status() + data = response.json() if response.content else {} + stations = (data.get("records") or {}).get("Station") or [] + if isinstance(stations, dict): + station = stations + elif isinstance(stations, list) and stations: + station = stations[0] + else: + station = None + if not isinstance(station, dict): + return None + + wx = station.get("WeatherElement") or {} + if not isinstance(wx, dict): + wx = {} + daily_extreme = wx.get("DailyExtreme") or {} + high_info = (((daily_extreme.get("DailyHigh") or {}).get("TemperatureInfo") or {})) + low_info = (((daily_extreme.get("DailyLow") or {}).get("TemperatureInfo") or {})) + high_time_raw = (((high_info.get("Occurred_at") or {}).get("DateTime"))) + high_hhmm = None + if high_time_raw and "T" in str(high_time_raw): + try: + high_hhmm = datetime.fromisoformat(str(high_time_raw)).strftime("%H:%M") + except Exception: + high_hhmm = str(high_time_raw).split("T")[1][:5] + + obs_time_raw = (station.get("ObsTime") or {}).get("DateTime") + wind_speed_ms = self._safe_float(wx.get("WindSpeed")) + payload: Dict[str, Any] = { + "source": "cwa", + "source_label": "CWA", + "station_code": str(station.get("StationId") or "466920"), + "station_name": str(station.get("StationName") or "臺北"), + "observation_time": str(obs_time_raw or "").strip() or None, + "current": { + "temp": self._safe_float(wx.get("AirTemperature")), + "max_temp_so_far": self._safe_float(high_info.get("AirTemperature")), + "max_temp_time": high_hhmm, + "today_low": self._safe_float(low_info.get("AirTemperature")), + "humidity": self._safe_float(wx.get("RelativeHumidity")), + "wind_speed_kt": round(float(wind_speed_ms) * 1.943844, 1) if wind_speed_ms is not None else None, + "wind_dir": self._safe_float(wx.get("WindDirection")), + }, + "unit": "celsius", + } + self._set_settlement_cache(cache_key, payload) + return payload + except Exception as exc: + logger.warning(f"CWA settlement fetch failed: {exc}") + return None + + def fetch_hko_forecast(self) -> Optional[float]: + try: + url = "https://data.weather.gov.hk/weatherAPI/opendata/weather.php?dataType=fnd&lang=tc" + res = self.session.get(url, timeout=self.timeout).json() + return float(res["weatherForecast"][0]["forecastMaxtemp"]["value"]) + except Exception as exc: + logger.warning(f"HKO Forecast request failed: {exc}") + return None + + def fetch_cwa_taipei_forecast(self) -> Optional[float]: + try: + if not self.cwa_open_data_auth: + return None + url = "https://opendata.cwa.gov.tw/api/v1/rest/datastore/F-D0047-061" + res = self.session.get( + url, + params={"Authorization": self.cwa_open_data_auth, "format": "JSON", "elementName": "MaxT"}, + timeout=self.timeout, + ).json() + locs = res.get("records", {}).get("Locations", [])[0].get("Location", []) + if not locs: + return None + loc = locs[0] + for weather_element in loc.get("WeatherElement", []): + if weather_element.get("ElementName") == "MaxT": + return float(weather_element["Time"][0]["ElementValue"][0]["Temperature"]) + return None + except Exception as exc: + logger.warning(f"CWA Forecast request failed: {exc}") + return None + + def fetch_settlement_current(self, city: str) -> Optional[Dict[str, Any]]: + normalized = str(city or "").strip().lower() + if normalized == "hong kong": + return self.fetch_hko_settlement_current() + if normalized == "taipei": + return self.fetch_cwa_taipei_settlement_current() + return None diff --git a/src/data_collection/weather_sources.py b/src/data_collection/weather_sources.py index bea2442b..a629e4f4 100644 --- a/src/data_collection/weather_sources.py +++ b/src/data_collection/weather_sources.py @@ -1,15 +1,18 @@ -import csv import os import requests import re -import time import threading -from typing import Optional, Dict, List, Any -from datetime import datetime, timedelta, timezone +from typing import Optional, Dict, List +from datetime import datetime, timedelta from loguru import logger +from src.data_collection.open_meteo_cache import OpenMeteoCacheMixin +from src.data_collection.settlement_sources import SettlementSourceMixin +from src.data_collection.metar_sources import MetarSourceMixin +from src.data_collection.mgm_sources import MgmSourceMixin +from src.data_collection.nws_open_meteo_sources import NwsOpenMeteoSourceMixin -class WeatherDataCollector: +class WeatherDataCollector(OpenMeteoCacheMixin, SettlementSourceMixin, MetarSourceMixin, MgmSourceMixin, NwsOpenMeteoSourceMixin): """ Multi-source weather data collector @@ -56,6 +59,37 @@ class WeatherDataCollector: "munich": ["EDDM", "EDMO", "EDJA"], } + US_CITIES = { + "dallas", + "nyc", + "new york", + "seattle", + "miami", + "atlanta", + "chicago", + "los angeles", + "san francisco", + "washington", + "boston", + "houston", + "phoenix", + "philadelphia", + "new york's central park", + "portland", + "denver", + "austin", + "san diego", + "detroit", + "cleveland", + "minneapolis", + "st. louis", + } + + TURKISH_PROVINCES = { + "ankara": ("17128", "Ankara"), + "istanbul": ("17060", "Istanbul"), + } + def __init__(self, config: dict): self.config = config weather_cfg = config.get("weather", {}) @@ -133,417 +167,6 @@ class WeatherDataCollector: logger.info("天气数据采集器初始化完成。") - def _load_open_meteo_disk_cache(self) -> None: - """启动时从磁盘加载 Open-Meteo 三类缓存，避免重启后冷启动打爆 API""" - import json as _json - try: - path = self._disk_cache_path - if not os.path.exists(path): - os.makedirs(os.path.dirname(path), exist_ok=True) - with open(path, "w", encoding="utf-8") as f: - _json.dump( - { - "forecast": {}, - "ensemble": {}, - "multi_model": {}, - "saved_at": time.time(), - }, - f, - ) - self._disk_cache_last_mtime = os.path.getmtime(path) - return - current_mtime = os.path.getmtime(path) - if current_mtime <= self._disk_cache_last_mtime: - return - with open(path, "r", encoding="utf-8") as f: - saved = _json.load(f) - now = time.time() - max_age = max(600, self._disk_cache_max_age_sec) - loaded = 0 - with self._open_meteo_cache_lock: - for key, entry in saved.get("forecast", {}).items(): - if now - float(entry.get("t", 0)) < max_age: - old = self._open_meteo_cache.get(key) - if old is None or float(entry.get("t", 0)) >= float(old.get("t", 0)): - self._open_meteo_cache[key] = entry - loaded += 1 - with self._ensemble_cache_lock: - for key, entry in saved.get("ensemble", {}).items(): - if now - float(entry.get("t", 0)) < max_age: - old = self._ensemble_cache.get(key) - if old is None or float(entry.get("t", 0)) >= float(old.get("t", 0)): - self._ensemble_cache[key] = entry - loaded += 1 - with self._multi_model_cache_lock: - for key, entry in saved.get("multi_model", {}).items(): - if now - float(entry.get("t", 0)) < max_age: - old = self._multi_model_cache.get(key) - if old is None or float(entry.get("t", 0)) >= float(old.get("t", 0)): - self._multi_model_cache[key] = entry - loaded += 1 - self._disk_cache_last_mtime = current_mtime - if loaded: - logger.info(f"✅ 从磁盘加载 Open-Meteo 缓存 {loaded} 条 ({self._disk_cache_path})") - except Exception as e: - logger.warning(f"磁盘缓存加载失败（首次启动不影响运行）: {e}") - - def _maybe_reload_open_meteo_disk_cache(self) -> None: - """跨进程共享缓存：当缓存文件有更新时增量重载到当前进程内存""" - try: - path = self._disk_cache_path - if not os.path.exists(path): - return - current_mtime = os.path.getmtime(path) - if current_mtime <= self._disk_cache_last_mtime: - return - self._load_open_meteo_disk_cache() - except Exception: - # 不影响主流程 - pass - - def _flush_open_meteo_disk_cache(self) -> None: - """将三类 Open-Meteo 内存缓存持久化到磁盘""" - import json as _json - try: - os.makedirs(os.path.dirname(self._disk_cache_path), exist_ok=True) - with self._open_meteo_cache_lock: - forecast_snapshot = dict(self._open_meteo_cache) - with self._ensemble_cache_lock: - ensemble_snapshot = dict(self._ensemble_cache) - with self._multi_model_cache_lock: - multi_model_snapshot = dict(self._multi_model_cache) - payload = { - "forecast": forecast_snapshot, - "ensemble": ensemble_snapshot, - "multi_model": multi_model_snapshot, - "saved_at": time.time(), - } - with self._disk_cache_lock: - tmp_path = self._disk_cache_path + ".tmp" - with open(tmp_path, "w", encoding="utf-8") as f: - _json.dump(payload, f) - os.replace(tmp_path, self._disk_cache_path) # 原子替换，防止写入一半时被读到 - self._disk_cache_last_mtime = os.path.getmtime(self._disk_cache_path) - except Exception as e: - logger.warning(f"磁盘缓存写入失败: {e}") - - - def _wait_open_meteo_slot(self, endpoint: str) -> None: - """Simple per-process rate gate for Open-Meteo endpoints.""" - min_interval = self._open_meteo_min_interval_sec - if min_interval <= 0: - return - with self._open_meteo_call_lock: - now_ts = time.time() - wait_for = min_interval - (now_ts - self._open_meteo_last_call_ts) - if wait_for > 0: - logger.debug( - f"Open-Meteo {endpoint} 限流保护：sleep {wait_for:.2f}s (min_interval={min_interval:.2f}s)" - ) - time.sleep(wait_for) - now_ts = time.time() - self._open_meteo_last_call_ts = now_ts - - def _get_settlement_cache(self, key: str) -> Optional[Dict[str, Any]]: - now_ts = time.time() - with self._settlement_cache_lock: - cached = self._settlement_cache.get(key) - if cached and now_ts - float(cached.get("t", 0)) < self.settlement_cache_ttl_sec: - return cached.get("d") - return None - - def _set_settlement_cache(self, key: str, payload: Dict[str, Any]) -> None: - with self._settlement_cache_lock: - self._settlement_cache[key] = {"t": time.time(), "d": payload} - - @staticmethod - def _csv_rows(text: str) -> List[Dict[str, str]]: - normalized = str(text or "").lstrip("\ufeff") - if not normalized.strip(): - return [] - return [row for row in csv.DictReader(normalized.splitlines()) if isinstance(row, dict)] - - @staticmethod - def _hko_parse_local_iso(raw_yyyymmddhhmm: Optional[str]) -> Optional[str]: - raw = str(raw_yyyymmddhhmm or "").strip() - if len(raw) != 12 or not raw.isdigit(): - return None - try: - dt = datetime.strptime(raw, "%Y%m%d%H%M").replace( - tzinfo=timezone(timedelta(hours=8)) - ) - return dt.isoformat() - except Exception: - return None - - @staticmethod - def _hko_compass_to_deg(compass: Optional[str]) -> Optional[float]: - value = str(compass or "").strip().upper() - if not value: - return None - mapping = { - "N": 0.0, - "NNE": 22.5, - "NE": 45.0, - "ENE": 67.5, - "E": 90.0, - "ESE": 112.5, - "SE": 135.0, - "SSE": 157.5, - "S": 180.0, - "SSW": 202.5, - "SW": 225.0, - "WSW": 247.5, - "W": 270.0, - "WNW": 292.5, - "NW": 315.0, - "NNW": 337.5, - } - return mapping.get(value) - - @staticmethod - def _safe_float(value: Any) -> Optional[float]: - if value is None: - return None - text = str(value).strip() - if not text or text in {"***", "N/A", "NA"}: - return None - try: - return float(text) - except Exception: - return None - - @staticmethod - def _pick_station_row(rows: List[Dict[str, str]], candidates: List[str]) -> Optional[Dict[str, str]]: - if not rows: - return None - normalized_map = { - str(name).strip().lower(): row - for row in rows - for name in [row.get("Automatic Weather Station")] - if isinstance(row, dict) and name - } - for name in candidates: - hit = normalized_map.get(str(name).strip().lower()) - if hit: - return hit - for row in rows: - station = str(row.get("Automatic Weather Station") or "").strip().lower() - if "observatory" in station: - return row - return rows[0] if rows else None - - def fetch_hko_settlement_current(self) -> Optional[Dict[str, Any]]: - """ - 香港市场结算源：香港天文台实时数据 - - 当前温度: latest_1min_temperature.csv (HK Observatory) - - 今日最高: latest_since_midnight_maxmin.csv (HK Observatory) - """ - cache_key = "hko:hong_kong" - cached = self._get_settlement_cache(cache_key) - if cached: - return cached - - try: - base = "https://data.weather.gov.hk/weatherAPI/hko_data/regional-weather" - temp_csv = self.session.get( - f"{base}/latest_1min_temperature.csv", - timeout=self.timeout, - ) - temp_csv.raise_for_status() - maxmin_csv = self.session.get( - f"{base}/latest_since_midnight_maxmin.csv", - timeout=self.timeout, - ) - maxmin_csv.raise_for_status() - humidity_csv = self.session.get( - f"{base}/latest_1min_humidity.csv", - timeout=self.timeout, - ) - humidity_csv.raise_for_status() - wind_csv = self.session.get( - f"{base}/latest_10min_wind.csv", - timeout=self.timeout, - ) - wind_csv.raise_for_status() - - temp_rows = self._csv_rows(temp_csv.text) - maxmin_rows = self._csv_rows(maxmin_csv.text) - humidity_rows = self._csv_rows(humidity_csv.text) - wind_rows = self._csv_rows(wind_csv.text) - - station_candidates = ["HK Observatory", "Hong Kong Observatory"] - temp_row = self._pick_station_row(temp_rows, station_candidates) - maxmin_row = self._pick_station_row(maxmin_rows, station_candidates) - humidity_row = self._pick_station_row(humidity_rows, station_candidates) - wind_row = self._pick_station_row(wind_rows, station_candidates) - if not temp_row or not maxmin_row: - return None - - obs_raw = temp_row.get("Date time") or maxmin_row.get("Date time") - obs_iso = self._hko_parse_local_iso(obs_raw) - - current_temp = self._safe_float( - temp_row.get("Air Temperature(degree Celsius)") - ) - max_so_far = self._safe_float( - maxmin_row.get("Maximum Air Temperature Since Midnight(degree Celsius)") - ) - min_so_far = self._safe_float( - maxmin_row.get("Minimum Air Temperature Since Midnight(degree Celsius)") - ) - humidity = ( - self._safe_float(humidity_row.get("Relative Humidity(percent)")) - if humidity_row - else None - ) - wind_speed_kmh = ( - self._safe_float(wind_row.get("10-Minute Mean Speed(km/hour)")) - if wind_row - else None - ) - wind_speed_kt = ( - round(float(wind_speed_kmh) / 1.852, 1) - if wind_speed_kmh is not None - else None - ) - wind_dir = self._hko_compass_to_deg( - wind_row.get("10-Minute Mean Wind Direction(Compass points)") - if wind_row - else None - ) - - payload: Dict[str, Any] = { - "source": "hko", - "source_label": "HKO", - "station_code": "HKO", - "station_name": "HK Observatory", - "observation_time": obs_iso, - "current": { - "temp": round(current_temp, 1) if current_temp is not None else None, - "max_temp_so_far": round(max_so_far, 1) if max_so_far is not None else None, - "max_temp_time": None, - "today_low": round(min_so_far, 1) if min_so_far is not None else None, - "humidity": round(humidity, 1) if humidity is not None else None, - "wind_speed_kt": wind_speed_kt, - "wind_dir": wind_dir, - }, - "unit": "celsius", - } - self._set_settlement_cache(cache_key, payload) - return payload - except Exception as exc: - logger.warning(f"HKO settlement fetch failed: {exc}") - return None - - def fetch_cwa_taipei_settlement_current(self) -> Optional[Dict[str, Any]]: - """ - 台北市场结算源：交通部中央气象署实时数据 (StationId=466920, 臺北站) - """ - cache_key = "cwa:taipei:466920" - cached = self._get_settlement_cache(cache_key) - if cached: - return cached - - try: - url = "https://opendata.cwa.gov.tw/api/v1/rest/datastore/O-A0003-001" - response = self.session.get( - url, - params={ - "Authorization": self.cwa_open_data_auth, - "format": "JSON", - "StationId": "466920", - }, - timeout=self.timeout, - ) - response.raise_for_status() - data = response.json() if response.content else {} - stations = (data.get("records") or {}).get("Station") or [] - if isinstance(stations, dict): - station = stations - elif isinstance(stations, list) and stations: - station = stations[0] - else: - station = None - if not isinstance(station, dict): - return None - - wx = station.get("WeatherElement") or {} - if not isinstance(wx, dict): - wx = {} - daily_extreme = wx.get("DailyExtreme") or {} - high_info = (((daily_extreme.get("DailyHigh") or {}).get("TemperatureInfo") or {})) - low_info = (((daily_extreme.get("DailyLow") or {}).get("TemperatureInfo") or {})) - high_time_raw = (((high_info.get("Occurred_at") or {}).get("DateTime"))) - high_hhmm = None - if high_time_raw and "T" in str(high_time_raw): - try: - high_hhmm = datetime.fromisoformat(str(high_time_raw)).strftime("%H:%M") - except Exception: - high_hhmm = str(high_time_raw).split("T")[1][:5] - - obs_time_raw = (station.get("ObsTime") or {}).get("DateTime") - - wind_speed_ms = self._safe_float(wx.get("WindSpeed")) - payload: Dict[str, Any] = { - "source": "cwa", - "source_label": "CWA", - "station_code": str(station.get("StationId") or "466920"), - "station_name": str(station.get("StationName") or "臺北"), - "observation_time": str(obs_time_raw or "").strip() or None, - "current": { - "temp": self._safe_float(wx.get("AirTemperature")), - "max_temp_so_far": self._safe_float(high_info.get("AirTemperature")), - "max_temp_time": high_hhmm, - "today_low": self._safe_float(low_info.get("AirTemperature")), - "humidity": self._safe_float(wx.get("RelativeHumidity")), - "wind_speed_kt": round(float(wind_speed_ms) * 1.943844, 1) - if wind_speed_ms is not None - else None, - "wind_dir": self._safe_float(wx.get("WindDirection")), - }, - "unit": "celsius", - } - self._set_settlement_cache(cache_key, payload) - return payload - except Exception as exc: - logger.warning(f"CWA settlement fetch failed: {exc}") - return None - - def fetch_hko_forecast(self) -> Optional[float]: - try: - url = "https://data.weather.gov.hk/weatherAPI/opendata/weather.php?dataType=fnd&lang=tc" - res = self.session.get(url, timeout=self.timeout).json() - return float(res['weatherForecast'][0]['forecastMaxtemp']['value']) - except Exception as e: - logger.warning(f"HKO Forecast request failed: {e}") - return None - - def fetch_cwa_taipei_forecast(self) -> Optional[float]: - try: - if not self.cwa_open_data_auth: - return None - url = 'https://opendata.cwa.gov.tw/api/v1/rest/datastore/F-D0047-061' - res = self.session.get(url, params={'Authorization': self.cwa_open_data_auth, 'format': 'JSON', 'elementName': 'MaxT'}, timeout=self.timeout).json() - locs = res.get('records', {}).get('Locations', [])[0].get('Location', []) - if not locs: return None - loc = locs[0] - for we in loc.get('WeatherElement', []): - if we.get('ElementName') == 'MaxT': - return float(we['Time'][0]['ElementValue'][0]['Temperature']) - return None - except Exception as e: - logger.warning(f"CWA Forecast request failed: {e}") - return None - - def fetch_settlement_current(self, city: str) -> Optional[Dict[str, Any]]: - normalized = str(city or "").strip().lower() - if normalized == "hong kong": - return self.fetch_hko_settlement_current() - if normalized == "taipei": - return self.fetch_cwa_taipei_settlement_current() - return None - def fetch_from_openweather(self, city: str, country: str = None) -> Optional[Dict]: """ Fetch current weather and forecast from OpenWeatherMap @@ -679,1194 +302,6 @@ class WeatherDataCollector: logger.error(f"Visual Crossing request failed: {e}") return None - def get_icao_code(self, city: str) -> Optional[str]: - """ - 根据城市名获取对应的 ICAO 机场代码 - """ - normalized = city.lower().strip() - - # 直接匹配 - if normalized in self.CITY_TO_ICAO: - return self.CITY_TO_ICAO[normalized] - - # 模糊匹配 - for key, icao in self.CITY_TO_ICAO.items(): - if key in normalized or normalized in key: - return icao - - return None - - def fetch_metar( - self, city: str, use_fahrenheit: bool = False, utc_offset: int = 0 - ) -> Optional[Dict]: - """ - 从 NOAA Aviation Weather Center 获取 METAR 航空气象数据 - - 这是 Polymarket 天气市场的结算数据源 (Weather Underground) 使用的相同气象站 - - Args: - city: 城市名称 - use_fahrenheit: 是否转换为华氏度 - - Returns: - dict: METAR 数据，包含温度、露点、风速等 - """ - icao = self.get_icao_code(city) - if not icao: - logger.warning(f"未找到城市 {city} 对应的 ICAO 代码") - return None - - cache_key = f"{icao}:{utc_offset}:{use_fahrenheit}" - now_ts = time.time() - with self._metar_cache_lock: - cached = self._metar_cache.get(cache_key) - if cached and now_ts - cached["t"] < self.metar_cache_ttl_sec: - logger.debug(f"METAR cache hit {icao} age={int(now_ts - cached['t'])}s") - return cached["d"] - - try: - # NOAA Aviation Weather API (免费，无需 Key) - url = "https://aviationweather.gov/api/data/metar" - params = { - "ids": icao, - "format": "json", - "hours": 24, # 抓取 24 小时数据以计算今日最高 - "_t": int(time.time()), - } - - response = self.session.get( - url, - params=params, - timeout=self.timeout, - ) - response.raise_for_status() - - data = response.json() - if not data: - return None - - - # 1. 取最新的观测作为当前状态 - latest = data[0] - temp_c = latest.get("temp") - dewp_c = latest.get("dewp") - - # 从 rawOb 中提取真实观测时间（比 reportTime 更准确，reportTime 会被取整） - # rawOb 格式: "METAR EGLC 271150Z AUTO ..." → "271150Z" → 27日11:50 UTC - def _parse_rawob_time(obs): - """从 rawOb 中提取精确的 UTC 观测时间""" - raw = obs.get("rawOb", "") - import re as _re - - m = _re.search(r"\b(\d{2})(\d{2})(\d{2})Z\b", raw) - if m: - _day, hour, minute = ( - int(m.group(1)), - int(m.group(2)), - int(m.group(3)), - ) - # 用 reportTime 的日期部分 + rawOb 的时分 - fallback = obs.get("reportTime", "") - try: - clean = fallback.replace(" ", "T") - if not clean.endswith("Z"): - clean += "Z" - base_dt = datetime.fromisoformat(clean.replace("Z", "+00:00")) - result = base_dt.replace(hour=hour, minute=minute, second=0) - # 处理跨日（如 rawOb 是23:50但 reportTime 已经是次日00:00） - if result > base_dt + timedelta(hours=2): - result -= timedelta(days=1) - return result - except Exception: - pass - # fallback 到 reportTime - fallback = obs.get("reportTime", "") - try: - clean = fallback.replace(" ", "T") - if not clean.endswith("Z"): - clean += "Z" - return datetime.fromisoformat(clean.replace("Z", "+00:00")) - except Exception: - return None - - obs_dt = _parse_rawob_time(latest) - obs_time = ( - obs_dt.strftime("%Y-%m-%dT%H:%M:%S.000Z") - if obs_dt - else latest.get("reportTime", "") - ) - - # 2. 精确计算"当地今天"的最高温 - from datetime import timezone, timedelta - - now_utc = datetime.now(timezone.utc) - local_now = now_utc + timedelta(seconds=utc_offset) - local_midnight = local_now.replace( - hour=0, minute=0, second=0, microsecond=0 - ) - utc_midnight = local_midnight - timedelta(seconds=utc_offset) - - max_so_far_c = -999 - max_temp_time = None - for obs in data: - obs_dt_iter = _parse_rawob_time(obs) - if obs_dt_iter is None: - continue - try: - if obs_dt_iter >= utc_midnight: - t = obs.get("temp") - if t is not None and t > max_so_far_c: - max_so_far_c = t - local_report = obs_dt_iter + timedelta(seconds=utc_offset) - max_temp_time = local_report.strftime("%H:%M") - except Exception: - continue - - # 3. 提取最近 4 条报文的多维数据（温度 + 风/云/压强，用于趋势和 shock_score） - recent_temps_raw = [] # [(local_time_str, temp_c), ...] - recent_obs_raw = [] # [{time, temp, wdir, wspd, clouds, altim}, ...] - today_obs_raw = [] # [(local_time_str, temp_c), ...] 今天全部观测 - cloud_rank_map = { - "CLR": 0, "SKC": 0, "FEW": 1, "SCT": 2, "BKN": 3, "OVC": 4, - } - for i_obs, obs in enumerate(data): # data 已按时间倒序 - obs_temp = obs.get("temp") - obs_dt_iter = _parse_rawob_time(obs) - if obs_temp is not None and obs_dt_iter: - local_rt = obs_dt_iter + timedelta(seconds=utc_offset) - time_str = local_rt.strftime("%H:%M") - - # 收集今天全部观测点（用于图表叠加） - if obs_dt_iter >= utc_midnight: - today_obs_raw.append((time_str, obs_temp)) - - # 只取前4条用于趋势分析和 shock_score - if i_obs < 4: - recent_temps_raw.append((time_str, obs_temp)) - clouds = obs.get("clouds", []) - max_cloud_rank = 0 - for c in clouds: - rank = cloud_rank_map.get(c.get("cover", ""), 0) - if rank > max_cloud_rank: - max_cloud_rank = rank - recent_obs_raw.append( - { - "time": time_str, - "temp": obs_temp, - "wdir": obs.get("wdir"), - "wspd": obs.get("wspd"), - "cloud_rank": max_cloud_rank, # 0~4 - "altim": obs.get("altim"), - } - ) - - # 转换为单位 - if use_fahrenheit: - temp = temp_c * 9 / 5 + 32 if temp_c is not None else None - max_so_far = max_so_far_c * 9 / 5 + 32 if max_so_far_c > -900 else None - dewp = dewp_c * 9 / 5 + 32 if dewp_c is not None else None - unit = "fahrenheit" - recent_temps = [ - (t, round(v * 9 / 5 + 32, 1)) for t, v in recent_temps_raw - ] - today_obs = [ - (t, round(v * 9 / 5 + 32, 1)) for t, v in today_obs_raw - ] - else: - temp = temp_c - max_so_far = max_so_far_c if max_so_far_c > -900 else None - dewp = dewp_c - unit = "celsius" - recent_temps = [(t, v) for t, v in recent_temps_raw] - today_obs = [(t, v) for t, v in today_obs_raw] - - result = { - "source": "metar", - "icao": icao, - "station_name": latest.get("name", icao), - "timestamp": datetime.utcnow().isoformat(), - "observation_time": obs_time, - "report_time": latest.get("reportTime"), - "receipt_time": latest.get("receiptTime"), - "obs_time_epoch": latest.get("obsTime"), - "current": { - "temp": round(temp, 1) if temp is not None else None, - "max_temp_so_far": round(max_so_far, 1) - if max_so_far is not None - else None, - "max_temp_time": max_temp_time, - "dewpoint": round(dewp, 1) if dewp is not None else None, - "humidity": latest.get("rh"), - "wind_speed_kt": latest.get("wspd"), - "wind_dir": latest.get("wdir"), - "visibility_mi": latest.get("visib"), - "wx_desc": latest.get("wxString"), - "altimeter": latest.get("altim"), - "raw_metar": latest.get("rawOb"), - "clouds": latest.get("clouds", []), - }, - "recent_temps": recent_temps, # 最近4条: [("15:00", 5), ("14:20", 5), ...] - "today_obs": today_obs, # 今天全部观测: [("00:00", 3), ("01:00", 2.5), ...] - "recent_obs": recent_obs_raw, # 最近4条多维数据（风/云/压强） - "unit": unit, - } - - logger.info( - f"✈️ METAR {icao}: {temp:.1f}°{'F' if use_fahrenheit else 'C'} " - f"(obs: {obs_time})" - ) - with self._metar_cache_lock: - self._metar_cache[cache_key] = {"d": result, "t": now_ts} - return result - - except requests.exceptions.RequestException as e: - logger.error(f"METAR 请求失败 ({icao}): {e}") - with self._metar_cache_lock: - stale = self._metar_cache.get(cache_key) - if stale: - logger.warning(f"METAR {icao} 请求失败，使用缓存回退") - return stale["d"] - return None - except (KeyError, IndexError, TypeError) as e: - logger.error(f"METAR 数据解析失败 ({icao}): {e}") - return None - - def fetch_from_mgm(self, istno: str) -> Optional[Dict]: - """ - 从土耳其气象局 (MGM) 获取实时数据和预测 (由用户提供其内部 API) - """ - base_url = "https://servis.mgm.gov.tr/web" - # 必须带 Origin，否则会被反爬拦截 - headers = { - "Origin": "https://www.mgm.gov.tr", - "User-Agent": "Mozilla/5.0 (Windows NT 10.0; Win64; x64) AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko) Chrome/120.0.0.0 Safari/537.36", - } - results = {} - - try: - # 1. 实时数据 (添加时间戳防止 CDN 缓存) - import time - - obs_resp = self.session.get( - f"{base_url}/sondurumlar?istno={istno}&_={int(time.time() * 1000)}", - headers=headers, - timeout=self.timeout, - ) - if obs_resp.status_code == 200: - data = obs_resp.json() - if data: - latest = data[0] if isinstance(data, list) else data - # MGM 数据字段映射 - # ruzgarHiz 实测为 km/h，转为 m/s 需要除以 3.6 - ruz_hiz_kmh = latest.get("ruzgarHiz", 0) - - # MGM 返回 -9999 表示数据缺失，需要过滤 - def _valid(v): - return v is not None and v > -9000 - - results["current"] = { - "temp": latest.get("sicaklik") - if _valid(latest.get("sicaklik")) - else None, - "feels_like": latest.get("hissedilenSicaklik") - if _valid(latest.get("hissedilenSicaklik")) - else None, - "humidity": latest.get("nem") - if _valid(latest.get("nem")) - else None, - "wind_speed_ms": round(ruz_hiz_kmh / 3.6, 1) - if _valid(ruz_hiz_kmh) - else None, - "wind_speed_kt": round(ruz_hiz_kmh / 1.852, 1) - if _valid(ruz_hiz_kmh) - else None, - "wind_dir": latest.get("ruzgarYon") - if _valid(latest.get("ruzgarYon")) - else None, - "rain_24h": latest.get("toplamYagis") - if _valid(latest.get("toplamYagis")) - else None, - "pressure": latest.get("aktuelBasinc") - if _valid(latest.get("aktuelBasinc")) - else None, - "cloud_cover": latest.get("kapalilik"), # 0-8 八分位云量 - "mgm_max_temp": latest.get("maxSicaklik") - if _valid(latest.get("maxSicaklik")) - else None, - "time": latest.get("veriZamani"), - "station_name": latest.get("istasyonAd") - or latest.get("adi") - or latest.get("merkezAd") - or "Ankara Bölge", - } - - # 2. 每日预报（尝试两个可能的 API 路径） - forecast_urls = [ - f"{base_url}/tahminler/gunluk?istno={istno}", - f"https://servis.mgm.gov.tr/api/tahminler/gunluk?istno={istno}", - ] - for forecast_url in forecast_urls: - try: - daily_resp = self.session.get( - forecast_url, headers=headers, timeout=self.timeout - ) - if daily_resp.status_code == 200: - forecasts = daily_resp.json() - if forecasts and isinstance(forecasts, list): - # Store today extra clearly - today = forecasts[0] - high_val = today.get("enYuksekGun1") - low_val = today.get("enDusukGun1") - if high_val is not None: - results["today_high"] = high_val - results["today_low"] = low_val - logger.info(f"📋 MGM 每日预报: 今天的最高温 {high_val}°C") - - # Store all 5 days for multi_model_daily - results["daily_forecasts"] = {} - for i, day in enumerate(forecasts[:5]): - d_high = day.get("enYuksekGun1") - if d_high is not None: - # Calculate date (today + offset) - target_date = (datetime.now() + timedelta(days=i)).strftime("%Y-%m-%d") - results["daily_forecasts"][target_date] = d_high - break - else: - logger.debug( - f"MGM forecast URL {forecast_url} returned {daily_resp.status_code}" - ) - except Exception as e: - logger.debug(f"MGM forecast URL {forecast_url} failed: {e}") - - # 3. 小时预报 - try: - hourly_resp = self.session.get( - f"{base_url}/tahminler/saatlik?istno={istno}", - headers=headers, - timeout=self.timeout - ) - if hourly_resp.status_code == 200: - h_data = hourly_resp.json() - if h_data and isinstance(h_data, list): - tahmin_list = h_data[0].get("tahmin", []) - results["hourly"] = [] - for t_data in tahmin_list: - if "tarih" in t_data and "sicaklik" in t_data: - results["hourly"].append({ - "time": t_data["tarih"], - "temp": t_data["sicaklik"] - }) - except Exception as e: - logger.debug(f"MGM hourly failed: {e}") - - # 4. Fallback for today_high (if daily forecast is missing it) - if "today_high" not in results: - # Try from current max - cur_max = results.get("current", {}).get("mgm_max_temp") - if cur_max is not None: - results["today_high"] = cur_max - logger.info(f"📋 MGM 每日预报: 使用当前测站最高温作为今日预报回退: {cur_max}°C") - elif "hourly" in results and results["hourly"]: - # Try from hourly - h_max = max((h["temp"] for h in results["hourly"] if h["temp"] is not None), default=None) - if h_max is not None: - results["today_high"] = h_max - logger.info(f"📋 MGM 每日预报: 使用小时预报最高温作为今日预报回退: {h_max}°C") - - # 5. Fallback for daily_forecasts from hourly data - if not results.get("daily_forecasts") and results.get("hourly"): - # Guardrail: avoid treating short intraday snippets as full-day highs. - hourly_rows = results.get("hourly") or [] - parsed_times = [] - for h in hourly_rows: - t = str(h.get("time") or "") - if "T" not in t: - continue - try: - parsed_times.append(datetime.fromisoformat(t.replace("Z", "+00:00"))) - except Exception: - continue - - horizon_hours = 0.0 - if len(parsed_times) >= 2: - parsed_times.sort() - horizon_hours = ( - parsed_times[-1] - parsed_times[0] - ).total_seconds() / 3600.0 - - if len(hourly_rows) >= 24 or horizon_hours >= 30: - from collections import defaultdict - - daily_max = defaultdict(list) - for h in hourly_rows: - t = h.get("time", "") - temp = h.get("temp") - if t and temp is not None: - # Extract date from ISO timestamp like "2026-03-05T12:00:00.000Z" - date_str = t[:10] - daily_max[date_str].append(temp) - if daily_max: - results["daily_forecasts"] = {} - for d, temps in sorted(daily_max.items()): - results["daily_forecasts"][d] = max(temps) - logger.info( - f"📋 MGM daily_forecasts (from hourly fallback): " - f"{dict(results['daily_forecasts'])}" - ) - else: - logger.info( - "📋 Skip MGM daily_forecasts hourly fallback: " - f"hourly points={len(hourly_rows)}, horizon={horizon_hours:.1f}h" - ) - - return results if "current" in results else None - except Exception as e: - logger.error(f"MGM API 请求失败 ({istno}): {e}") - return None - - def fetch_mgm_nearby_stations(self, province: str, root_ist_no: str = None) -> list: - """ - 获取一个土耳其省份内所有气象站的当前温度及经纬度 - 使用多线程辅助抓取，因为直接通过 il={province} 往往只返回 1 个站。 - """ - base_url = "https://servis.mgm.gov.tr/web" - headers = { - "Origin": "https://www.mgm.gov.tr", - "User-Agent": "Mozilla/5.0", - } - import time - from concurrent.futures import ThreadPoolExecutor - - results = [] - try: - # 1. 加载测站元数据 (缓存到实例中)，用于过滤属于该省份的站点 - if not getattr(self, "mgm_stations_meta", None): - meta_resp = self.session.get(f"{base_url}/istasyonlar", headers=headers, timeout=self.timeout) - if meta_resp.status_code == 200: - meta_json = meta_resp.json() - if isinstance(meta_json, list): - self.mgm_stations_meta = {s["istNo"]: s for s in meta_json if "istNo" in s} - else: - self.mgm_stations_meta = {} - - metadata = getattr(self, "mgm_stations_meta", {}) - - # 2. 找出属于该省份的所有站点 istNo - province_upper = province.upper() - province_ist_nos = [ - ist_no for ist_no, s in metadata.items() - if (s.get("il") or "").upper() == province_upper - ] - - if not province_ist_nos: - logger.warning(f"MGM 找不到省份 {province} 的站点元数据") - return [] - - # 同时确保我们关心的几个核心站一定在里面 - target_ist_nos = [str(i) for i in province_ist_nos[:25]] - # 17130: 安卡拉总站 (市区核心) - if 17130 in province_ist_nos or "17130" in province_ist_nos: - if "17130" not in target_ist_nos: - target_ist_nos.append("17130") - # 17128: 机场官方站 - if 17128 in province_ist_nos or "17128" in province_ist_nos: - if "17128" not in target_ist_nos: - target_ist_nos.append("17128") - if root_ist_no: - rs = str(root_ist_no) - if rs not in target_ist_nos: - target_ist_nos.append(rs) - - # 3. 多线程获取每个站点的最新观测 (sondurumlar) - def fetch_single_station(ist_no): - try: - # sondurumlar?istno={ist_no} 是目前最稳的获取多站数据的办法 - url = f"{base_url}/sondurumlar?istno={ist_no}&_={int(time.time() * 1000)}" - resp = self.session.get(url, headers=headers, timeout=5) - if resp.status_code == 200: - obs_list = resp.json() - if obs_list: - obs = obs_list[0] if isinstance(obs_list, list) else obs_list - temp = obs.get("sicaklik") - wind_speed = obs.get("ruzgarHiz") - wind_dir = obs.get("ruzgarYon") - if temp is not None and temp > -9000: - return ist_no, {"temp": temp, "wind_speed": wind_speed, "wind_dir": wind_dir} - except: - pass - return None, None - - # 并发抓取 - station_temps = {} - with ThreadPoolExecutor(max_workers=10) as executor: - fetch_results = list(executor.map(fetch_single_station, target_ist_nos)) - for ist_no, data in fetch_results: - if ist_no is not None: - station_temps[ist_no] = data - - # 4. 组装最终结果 - for ist_no, temp in station_temps.items(): - sid = str(ist_no) - # metadata 可能使用 int 或 str 作为 key - meta = metadata.get(sid) or metadata.get(int(sid)) - if not meta: - continue - - lat = meta.get("enlem") - lon = meta.get("boylam") - # 优先显示区县名，地图更清晰 - display_name = (meta.get("ilce") or meta.get("istAd") or f"Station {ist_no}").title() - - # 特殊处理核心站点的显示名称 - sid = str(ist_no) - if sid == "17130": - display_name = "Ankara (Bölge/Center)" - elif sid == "17128": - display_name = "Airport (MGM/17128)" - - results.append({ - "name": display_name, - "lat": lat, - "lon": lon, - "temp": temp.get("temp") if isinstance(temp, dict) else temp, - "wind_speed": temp.get("wind_speed") if isinstance(temp, dict) else None, - "wind_dir": temp.get("wind_dir") if isinstance(temp, dict) else None, - "istNo": ist_no - }) - - logger.info(f"📍 MGM 周边测站: 成功并发抓取 {len(results)} 个 {province} 站点的实时气温") - return results - except Exception as e: - logger.error(f"Failed to fetch MGM nearby stations for {province}: {e}") - return [] - - def fetch_metar_nearby_cluster(self, icaos: List[str], use_fahrenheit: bool = False) -> list: - """ - 批量获取一组 ICAO 站点的 METAR 数据，用于地图周边显示 - """ - if not icaos: - return [] - - results = [] - try: - ids_str = ",".join(icaos) - # AviationWeather API 支持批量请求 IDs - url = f"https://aviationweather.gov/api/data/metar?ids={ids_str}&format=json" - headers = { - "User-Agent": "Mozilla/5.0 (Windows NT 10.0; Win64; x64) AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko) Chrome/120.0.0.0 Safari/537.36", - } - resp = self.session.get(url, headers=headers, timeout=self.timeout) - if resp.status_code != 200: - logger.warning(f"METAR cluster fetch HTTP {resp.status_code} for {icaos}") - return [] - - data = resp.json() - if not isinstance(data, list): - return [] - - for obs in data: - icao = obs.get("icaoId") - lat = obs.get("lat") - lon = obs.get("lon") - temp_c = obs.get("temp") - if icao and lat and lon and temp_c is not None: - # 温度单位转换 - display_temp = temp_c - if use_fahrenheit: - display_temp = (temp_c * 9 / 5) + 32 - - # 站名处理：去除末尾的 " Airport" 或 " Intl" 使地图更简洁 - name = obs.get("name") or icao - name = name.split(" Airport")[0].split(" Intl")[0].split(" International")[0].split(" Arpt")[0].split(",")[0].strip() - - results.append({ - "name": name, - "lat": lat, - "lon": lon, - "temp": round(display_temp, 1), - "istNo": icao, # 用 ICAO ID 作为标识 - "icao": icao, - "wind_dir": obs.get("wdir"), - "wind_speed": obs.get("wspd"), - "wind_speed_kt": obs.get("wspd"), - "raw_metar": obs.get("rawOb"), - }) - - if results: - logger.info(f"📍 METAR 集群: 成功抓取 {len(results)} 个参考站数据") - return results - except Exception as e: - logger.error(f"Failed to fetch METAR cluster {icaos}: {e}") - return [] - - def fetch_nws(self, lat: float, lon: float) -> Optional[Dict]: - """ - 从 NWS (美国国家气象局) 获取高精度预报 - 仅适用于美国城市，全球 VPS 均可访问 - """ - try: - # 1. 获取网格点 - points_url = f"https://api.weather.gov/points/{lat},{lon}" - headers = {"User-Agent": "PolyWeather/1.0 (weather-bot)"} - - points_resp = self.session.get( - points_url, headers=headers, timeout=self.timeout - ) - points_resp.raise_for_status() - points_data = points_resp.json() - - properties = points_data.get("properties", {}) - forecast_url = properties.get("forecast") - hourly_url = properties.get("forecastHourly") - if not forecast_url: - return None - - # 2. 获取预报 - forecast_resp = self.session.get( - forecast_url, headers=headers, timeout=self.timeout - ) - forecast_resp.raise_for_status() - forecast_data = forecast_resp.json() - - periods = forecast_data.get("properties", {}).get("periods", []) - if not periods: - return None - - hourly_periods = [] - if hourly_url: - hourly_resp = self.session.get( - hourly_url, headers=headers, timeout=self.timeout - ) - hourly_resp.raise_for_status() - hourly_data = hourly_resp.json() - hourly_periods = hourly_data.get("properties", {}).get("periods", [])[:48] - - active_alerts = [] - try: - alerts_resp = self.session.get( - "https://api.weather.gov/alerts/active", - params={"point": f"{lat},{lon}"}, - headers=headers, - timeout=self.timeout, - ) - alerts_resp.raise_for_status() - alerts_data = alerts_resp.json() - for feature in alerts_data.get("features", [])[:8]: - ap = feature.get("properties", {}) - active_alerts.append( - { - "event": ap.get("event"), - "headline": ap.get("headline"), - "severity": ap.get("severity"), - "certainty": ap.get("certainty"), - "urgency": ap.get("urgency"), - "effective": ap.get("effective"), - "ends": ap.get("ends"), - } - ) - except Exception: - active_alerts = [] - - # 3. 提取今日最高温（找 isDaytime=True 的第一个） - today_high = None - for p in periods: - if p.get("isDaytime") and "High" in p.get("name", ""): - today_high = p.get("temperature") - break - # 如果没有明确的 High，取第一个 daytime 的温度 - if today_high is None: - for p in periods: - if p.get("isDaytime"): - today_high = p.get("temperature") - break - - return { - "source": "nws", - "today_high": today_high, - "unit": "fahrenheit", - "forecast_periods": [ - { - "name": p.get("name"), - "start_time": p.get("startTime"), - "end_time": p.get("endTime"), - "is_daytime": p.get("isDaytime"), - "temperature": p.get("temperature"), - "temperature_trend": p.get("temperatureTrend"), - "wind_speed": p.get("windSpeed"), - "wind_direction": p.get("windDirection"), - "short_forecast": p.get("shortForecast"), - "detailed_forecast": p.get("detailedForecast"), - "precipitation_probability": (p.get("probabilityOfPrecipitation") or {}).get("value"), - } - for p in periods[:14] - ], - "hourly_periods": [ - { - "start_time": p.get("startTime"), - "end_time": p.get("endTime"), - "temperature": p.get("temperature"), - "temperature_unit": p.get("temperatureUnit"), - "wind_speed": p.get("windSpeed"), - "wind_direction": p.get("windDirection"), - "short_forecast": p.get("shortForecast"), - "precipitation_probability": (p.get("probabilityOfPrecipitation") or {}).get("value"), - } - for p in hourly_periods - ], - "active_alerts": active_alerts, - } - except Exception as e: - logger.warning(f"NWS 请求失败: {e}") - return None - - def fetch_from_open_meteo( - self, - lat: float, - lon: float, - forecast_days: int = 14, - use_fahrenheit: bool = False, - ) -> Optional[Dict]: - """ - Fetch weather from Open-Meteo with forecast data - - Args: - lat: Latitude - lon: Longitude - forecast_days: Number of forecast days to fetch (default 14 to cover all market dates) - use_fahrenheit: Whether to return temperatures in Fahrenheit (for US markets) - """ - cache_key = ( - f"{round(float(lat), 4)}:{round(float(lon), 4)}:" - f"{forecast_days}:{'f' if use_fahrenheit else 'c'}" - ) - self._maybe_reload_open_meteo_disk_cache() - now_ts = time.time() - # ── 429 冷却期检查（所有 Open-Meteo 端点共享）───────────────── - with self._open_meteo_rl_lock: - if now_ts < self._open_meteo_rate_limit_until: - remaining = int(self._open_meteo_rate_limit_until - now_ts) - logger.debug(f"Open-Meteo 冷却期中，跳过请求，还需 {remaining}s") - with self._open_meteo_cache_lock: - stale = self._open_meteo_cache.get(cache_key) - if stale and isinstance(stale.get("data"), dict): - return dict(stale["data"]) - return None - with self._open_meteo_cache_lock: - cached = self._open_meteo_cache.get(cache_key) - if ( - cached - and now_ts - float(cached.get("t", 0)) < self.open_meteo_cache_ttl_sec - ): - cached_data = cached.get("data") - if isinstance(cached_data, dict): - return dict(cached_data) - try: - url = "https://api.open-meteo.com/v1/forecast" - params = { - "latitude": lat, - "longitude": lon, - "current_weather": "true", - "hourly": "temperature_2m,shortwave_radiation,dew_point_2m,pressure_msl,wind_speed_10m,wind_direction_10m,precipitation_probability,cloud_cover", - "daily": "temperature_2m_max,apparent_temperature_max,sunrise,sunset,sunshine_duration", - "timezone": "auto", - "forecast_days": forecast_days, - } - - # 显式指定单位，防止 API 默认行为漂移 - if use_fahrenheit: - params["temperature_unit"] = "fahrenheit" - else: - params["temperature_unit"] = "celsius" - - self._wait_open_meteo_slot("forecast") - response = self.session.get( - url, - params=params, - timeout=self.timeout, - ) - response.raise_for_status() - data = response.json() - - current = data.get("current_weather", {}) - utc_offset = data.get("utc_offset_seconds", 0) - timezone_name = data.get("timezone", "UTC") - - # 处理多模型数据 (如果请求了 models 参数，返回结构会变化) - daily_data = data.get("daily", {}) - if "temperature_2m_max_ecmwf_ifs04" in daily_data: - ecmwf_max = daily_data.get("temperature_2m_max_ecmwf_ifs04", []) - hrrr_max = daily_data.get("temperature_2m_max_ncep_hrrr_conus", []) - - # 记录今日模型分歧 - daily_data["model_split"] = { - "ecmwf": ecmwf_max[0] if ecmwf_max else None, - "hrrr": hrrr_max[0] if hrrr_max else None, - } - - # 智能合并：HRRR 仅覆盖 48 小时，远期用 ECMWF 补全 - merged_max = [] - for i in range(len(ecmwf_max)): - hrrr_val = hrrr_max[i] if i < len(hrrr_max) else None - ecmwf_val = ecmwf_max[i] if i < len(ecmwf_max) else None - - # 优先 HRRR，其次 ECMWF，都没有就跳过 - if hrrr_val is not None: - merged_max.append(hrrr_val) - elif ecmwf_val is not None: - merged_max.append(ecmwf_val) - else: - # 两个都没有，用占位符 (理论上不应该发生) - merged_max.append(ecmwf_val) # None - daily_data["temperature_2m_max"] = merged_max - - # 映射逐小时数据 - hourly_data = data.get("hourly", {}) - if "temperature_2m_ncep_hrrr_conus" in hourly_data: - hourly_data["temperature_2m"] = hourly_data[ - "temperature_2m_ncep_hrrr_conus" - ] - - # 计算精确的当地时间 - now_utc = datetime.utcnow() - local_now = now_utc + timedelta(seconds=utc_offset) - local_time_str = local_now.strftime("%Y-%m-%d %H:%M") - - result = { - "source": "open-meteo", - "timestamp": now_utc.isoformat(), - "timezone": timezone_name, - "utc_offset": utc_offset, - "current": { - "temp": current.get("temperature"), - "local_time": local_time_str, - }, - "hourly": hourly_data, - "daily": daily_data, - "unit": "fahrenheit" if use_fahrenheit else "celsius", - } - with self._open_meteo_cache_lock: - self._open_meteo_cache[cache_key] = { - "t": time.time(), - "data": dict(result), - } - self._flush_open_meteo_disk_cache() - return result - except Exception as e: - status_code = getattr(getattr(e, "response", None), "status_code", None) - if status_code == 429: - retry_after_str = getattr(e.response, "headers", {}).get("Retry-After") - cooldown_to_use = self._open_meteo_rl_cooldown - if retry_after_str: - try: - parsed = int(retry_after_str) - if parsed > 0: - cooldown_to_use = min(parsed + 60, 3600) # Add 60s buffer, max 1 hour - logger.info(f"Open-Meteo 响应包含 Retry-After: {retry_after_str}s") - except ValueError: - pass - logger.warning( - f"Open-Meteo rate limited (429), fallback to cache if available: lat={lat}, lon={lon}" - ) - # 设置全局冷却期，避免短时内重复触发 429 - with self._open_meteo_rl_lock: - self._open_meteo_rate_limit_until = time.time() + cooldown_to_use - logger.warning(f"Open-Meteo 触发限流，设置 {cooldown_to_use}s 冷却期") - else: - logger.error(f"Open-Meteo forecast failed: {e}") - with self._open_meteo_cache_lock: - stale = self._open_meteo_cache.get(cache_key) - if stale and isinstance(stale.get("data"), dict): - fallback = dict(stale["data"]) - fallback["stale_cache"] = True - return fallback - return None - - def fetch_ensemble( - self, - lat: float, - lon: float, - use_fahrenheit: bool = False, - ) -> Optional[Dict]: - """ - 从 Open-Meteo Ensemble API 获取 51 成员集合预报 - 用于计算预报不确定性范围（散度） - """ - cache_key = ( - f"{round(float(lat), 4)}:{round(float(lon), 4)}:" - f"{'f' if use_fahrenheit else 'c'}" - ) - self._maybe_reload_open_meteo_disk_cache() - now_ts = time.time() - # ── 429 冷却期检查（所有 Open-Meteo 端点共享）───────────────── - with self._open_meteo_rl_lock: - if now_ts < self._open_meteo_rate_limit_until: - remaining = int(self._open_meteo_rate_limit_until - now_ts) - logger.debug(f"Open-Meteo Ensemble 冷却期中，跳过请求，还需 {remaining}s") - with self._ensemble_cache_lock: - stale = self._ensemble_cache.get(cache_key) - if stale and isinstance(stale.get("data"), dict): - return dict(stale["data"]) - return None - - with self._ensemble_cache_lock: - cached = self._ensemble_cache.get(cache_key) - if ( - cached - and now_ts - float(cached.get("t", 0)) - < self.open_meteo_ensemble_cache_ttl_sec - ): - cached_data = cached.get("data") - if isinstance(cached_data, dict): - return dict(cached_data) - try: - url = "https://ensemble-api.open-meteo.com/v1/ensemble" - params = { - "latitude": lat, - "longitude": lon, - "daily": "temperature_2m_max", - "timezone": "auto", - "forecast_days": 3, - } - if use_fahrenheit: - params["temperature_unit"] = "fahrenheit" - else: - params["temperature_unit"] = "celsius" - - self._wait_open_meteo_slot("ensemble") - response = self.session.get( - url, - params=params, - timeout=self.timeout, - ) - response.raise_for_status() - data = response.json() - - daily = data.get("daily", {}) - # 每个成员都会返回一组 temperature_2m_max - # 格式: {"time": [...], "temperature_2m_max_member01": [...], ...} - today_highs = [] - for key, values in daily.items(): - if key.startswith("temperature_2m_max") and key != "temperature_2m_max": - if values and values[0] is not None: - today_highs.append(values[0]) - - # 也检查非成员键（有些返回格式不同） - if not today_highs: - raw_max = daily.get("temperature_2m_max", []) - if isinstance(raw_max, list) and raw_max: - if isinstance(raw_max[0], list): - # 嵌套列表格式: [[member1_day1, member1_day2], [member2_day1, ...]] - today_highs = [m[0] for m in raw_max if m and m[0] is not None] - elif raw_max[0] is not None: - today_highs = [raw_max[0]] - - if len(today_highs) < 3: - logger.warning(f"Ensemble 数据不足: 仅获取 {len(today_highs)} 个成员") - return None - - today_highs.sort() - n = len(today_highs) - median = today_highs[n // 2] - p10 = today_highs[max(0, int(n * 0.1))] - p90 = today_highs[min(n - 1, int(n * 0.9))] - - result = { - "source": "ensemble", - "members": n, - "median": round(median, 1), - "p10": round(p10, 1), - "p90": round(p90, 1), - "min": round(today_highs[0], 1), - "max": round(today_highs[-1], 1), - "unit": "fahrenheit" if use_fahrenheit else "celsius", - } - - logger.info( - f"📊 Ensemble ({n} members): median={median:.1f}, " - f"p10={p10:.1f}, p90={p90:.1f}" - ) - with self._ensemble_cache_lock: - self._ensemble_cache[cache_key] = { - "t": time.time(), - "data": dict(result), - } - self._flush_open_meteo_disk_cache() - return result - except Exception as e: - status_code = getattr(getattr(e, "response", None), "status_code", None) - if status_code == 429: - retry_after_str = getattr(e.response, "headers", {}).get("Retry-After") - cooldown_to_use = self._open_meteo_rl_cooldown - if retry_after_str: - try: - parsed = int(retry_after_str) - if parsed > 0: - cooldown_to_use = min(parsed + 60, 3600) - except ValueError: - pass - logger.warning( - f"Ensemble API rate limited (429), fallback to cache if available: lat={lat}, lon={lon}" - ) - with self._open_meteo_rl_lock: - self._open_meteo_rate_limit_until = time.time() + cooldown_to_use - else: - logger.warning(f"Ensemble API 请求失败: {e}") - with self._ensemble_cache_lock: - stale = self._ensemble_cache.get(cache_key) - if stale and isinstance(stale.get("data"), dict): - fallback = dict(stale["data"]) - fallback["stale_cache"] = True - return fallback - return None - - def fetch_multi_model( - self, - lat: float, - lon: float, - city: str = "", - use_fahrenheit: bool = False, - ) -> Optional[Dict]: - """ - 从 Open-Meteo 获取多个独立 NWP 模型的预报 - 用于真正的多模型共识评分 - - 模型列表: - - ECMWF IFS (欧洲中期天气预报中心) - - GFS (美国 NOAA) - - ICON (德国气象局 DWD) - - GEM (加拿大气象局) - - JMA (日本气象厅) - - 返回 3 天的预报数据，支持今日+明日共识分析 - """ - cache_city = str(city or "").strip().lower() - cache_key = ( - f"{round(float(lat), 4)}:{round(float(lon), 4)}:{cache_city}:" - f"{'f' if use_fahrenheit else 'c'}:{self.multi_model_cache_version}" - ) - self._maybe_reload_open_meteo_disk_cache() - now_ts = time.time() - # ── 429 冷却期检查（所有 Open-Meteo 端点共享）───────────────── - with self._open_meteo_rl_lock: - if now_ts < self._open_meteo_rate_limit_until: - remaining = int(self._open_meteo_rate_limit_until - now_ts) - logger.debug(f"Open-Meteo Multi-model 冷却期中，跳过请求，还需 {remaining}s") - with self._multi_model_cache_lock: - stale = self._multi_model_cache.get(cache_key) - if stale and isinstance(stale.get("data"), dict): - return dict(stale["data"]) - return None - - with self._multi_model_cache_lock: - cached = self._multi_model_cache.get(cache_key) - if ( - cached - and now_ts - float(cached.get("t", 0)) - < self.open_meteo_multi_model_cache_ttl_sec - ): - cached_data = cached.get("data") - if isinstance(cached_data, dict): - return dict(cached_data) - try: - url = "https://api.open-meteo.com/v1/forecast" - models = "ecmwf_ifs025,gfs_seamless,icon_seamless,gem_seamless,jma_seamless" - params = { - "latitude": lat, - "longitude": lon, - "daily": "temperature_2m_max", - "models": models, - "timezone": "auto", - "forecast_days": 3, - } - if use_fahrenheit: - params["temperature_unit"] = "fahrenheit" - - self._wait_open_meteo_slot("multi-model") - response = self.session.get( - url, - params=params, - timeout=self.timeout, - ) - response.raise_for_status() - data = response.json() - - daily = data.get("daily", {}) - dates = daily.get("time", []) - - model_labels = { - "ecmwf_ifs025": "ECMWF", - "gfs_seamless": "GFS", - "icon_seamless": "ICON", - "gem_seamless": "GEM", - "jma_seamless": "JMA", - } - - # 按天提取每个模型的预报 - daily_forecasts = {} # {"2026-02-23": {"ECMWF": 7.9, "GFS": 6.5, ...}, ...} - for day_idx, date_str in enumerate(dates): - day_data = {} - for model_key, label in model_labels.items(): - key = f"temperature_2m_max_{model_key}" - values = daily.get(key, []) - if day_idx < len(values) and values[day_idx] is not None: - day_data[label] = round(values[day_idx], 1) - if day_data: - daily_forecasts[date_str] = day_data - - if not daily_forecasts: - logger.warning("Multi-model: 无有效模型数据") - return None - - # 今天的预报 (向后兼容) - today_date = dates[0] if dates else None - forecasts = daily_forecasts.get(today_date, {}) - - labels_str = ", ".join([f"{k}={v}" for k, v in forecasts.items()]) - logger.info( - f"🔬 Multi-model ({len(forecasts)}个, {len(daily_forecasts)}天): {labels_str}" - ) - - result = { - "source": "multi_model", - "forecasts": forecasts, # 今天 {"ECMWF": 12.3, "GFS": 11.8, ...} (向后兼容) - "daily_forecasts": daily_forecasts, # 按天 {"2026-02-23": {...}, "2026-02-24": {...}} - "dates": dates, - "unit": "fahrenheit" if use_fahrenheit else "celsius", - } - with self._multi_model_cache_lock: - self._multi_model_cache[cache_key] = { - "t": time.time(), - "data": dict(result), - } - self._flush_open_meteo_disk_cache() - return result - except Exception as e: - status_code = getattr(getattr(e, "response", None), "status_code", None) - if status_code == 429: - retry_after_str = getattr(e.response, "headers", {}).get("Retry-After") - cooldown_to_use = self._open_meteo_rl_cooldown - if retry_after_str: - try: - parsed = int(retry_after_str) - if parsed > 0: - cooldown_to_use = min(parsed + 60, 3600) - except ValueError: - pass - logger.warning( - f"Multi-model API rate limited (429), fallback to cache if available: lat={lat}, lon={lon}" - ) - with self._open_meteo_rl_lock: - self._open_meteo_rate_limit_until = time.time() + cooldown_to_use - else: - logger.warning(f"Multi-model API 请求失败: {e}") - with self._multi_model_cache_lock: - stale = self._multi_model_cache.get(cache_key) - if stale and isinstance(stale.get("data"), dict): - fallback = dict(stale["data"]) - fallback["stale_cache"] = True - return fallback - return None - def extract_date_from_title(self, title: str) -> Optional[str]: """ 从标题中提取日期并标准化为 YYYY-MM-DD @@ -2106,6 +541,74 @@ class WeatherDataCollector: elif normalized == "taipei": self._settlement_cache.pop("cwa:taipei:466920", None) + def _uses_fahrenheit(self, city_lower: str) -> bool: + return city_lower in self.US_CITIES + + def _log_temperature_unit(self, city: str, use_fahrenheit: bool) -> None: + unit = "华氏度 (°F)" if use_fahrenheit else "摄氏度 (°C)" + logger.info(f"🌡️ {city} 使用{unit}") + + def _attach_settlement_sources(self, results: Dict, city_lower: str) -> None: + settlement_current = self.fetch_settlement_current(city_lower) + if settlement_current: + results["settlement_current"] = settlement_current + + if city_lower in ["hong_kong", "hong kong", "香港", "hk"]: + hko_forecast = self.fetch_hko_forecast() + if hko_forecast: + results["hko_forecast"] = hko_forecast + elif city_lower in ["taipei", "台北", "臺北", "tpe"]: + cwa_forecast = self.fetch_cwa_taipei_forecast() + if cwa_forecast: + results["cwa_forecast"] = cwa_forecast + + def _attach_turkish_mgm_data(self, results: Dict, city_lower: str) -> None: + if city_lower not in self.TURKISH_PROVINCES: + return + istno, province = self.TURKISH_PROVINCES[city_lower] + mgm_data = self.fetch_from_mgm(istno) + if not mgm_data: + return + results["mgm"] = mgm_data + nearby = self.fetch_mgm_nearby_stations(province, root_ist_no=istno) + if nearby: + results["mgm_nearby"] = nearby + + def _attach_global_nearby_cluster( + self, results: Dict, city_lower: str, use_fahrenheit: bool + ) -> None: + if city_lower not in self.CITY_METAR_CLUSTERS or "mgm_nearby" in results: + return + cluster_icaos = self.CITY_METAR_CLUSTERS[city_lower] + cluster_data = self.fetch_metar_nearby_cluster( + cluster_icaos, use_fahrenheit=use_fahrenheit + ) + if cluster_data: + results["mgm_nearby"] = cluster_data + + def _attach_nws_and_models( + self, + results: Dict, + city: str, + lat: float, + lon: float, + use_fahrenheit: bool, + ) -> None: + if use_fahrenheit: + nws_data = self.fetch_nws(lat, lon) + if nws_data: + results["nws"] = nws_data + + ensemble_data = self.fetch_ensemble(lat, lon, use_fahrenheit=use_fahrenheit) + if ensemble_data: + results["ensemble"] = ensemble_data + + multi_model_data = self.fetch_multi_model( + lat, lon, city=city, use_fahrenheit=use_fahrenheit + ) + if multi_model_data: + results["multi_model"] = multi_model_data + def fetch_all_sources( self, city: str, @@ -2118,36 +621,8 @@ class WeatherDataCollector: Fetch weather data from all available sources """ results = {} - - # 判断是否为美国市场（使用华氏度） - us_cities = { - "dallas", - "nyc", - "new york", - "seattle", - "miami", - "atlanta", - "chicago", - "los angeles", - "san francisco", - "washington", - "boston", - "houston", - "phoenix", - "philadelphia", - "new york's central park", - "portland", - "denver", - "austin", - "san diego", - "detroit", - "cleveland", - "minneapolis", - "st. louis", - } city_lower = city.lower().strip() - # 严格判断是否为美国市场（必须完全匹配列表或缩写） - use_fahrenheit = city_lower in us_cities + use_fahrenheit = self._uses_fahrenheit(city_lower) if force_refresh: self._evict_city_caches( @@ -2156,30 +631,8 @@ class WeatherDataCollector: lon=lon, use_fahrenheit=use_fahrenheit, ) - - # Turkish cities: keep MGM model fallback alive when Open-Meteo is rate-limited. - turkish_provinces = { - "ankara": ("17128", "Ankara"), # MGM airport station - "istanbul": ("17060", "Istanbul"), - } - - if use_fahrenheit: - logger.info(f"🌡️ {city} 使用华氏度 (°F)") - else: - logger.info(f"🌡️ {city} 使用摄氏度 (°C)") - - settlement_current = self.fetch_settlement_current(city_lower) - if settlement_current: - results["settlement_current"] = settlement_current - - if city_lower in ["hong_kong", "hong kong", "香港", "hk"]: - hko_fcst = self.fetch_hko_forecast() - if hko_fcst: - results["hko_forecast"] = hko_fcst - elif city_lower in ["taipei", "台北", "臺北", "tpe"]: - cwa_fcst = self.fetch_cwa_taipei_forecast() - if cwa_fcst: - results["cwa_forecast"] = cwa_fcst + self._log_temperature_unit(city, use_fahrenheit) + self._attach_settlement_sources(results, city_lower) if lat and lon: open_meteo = self.fetch_from_open_meteo( @@ -2195,55 +648,14 @@ class WeatherDataCollector: if metar_data: results["metar"] = metar_data - # 对土耳其城市，额外获取 MGM 官方数据与周边测站 - turkish_provinces = { - "ankara": ("17128", "Ankara"), # use airport station consistently - "istanbul": ("17060", "Istanbul"), - } - if city_lower in turkish_provinces: - istno, province = turkish_provinces[city_lower] - # Use one station for both current conditions and forecasts. - mgm_data = self.fetch_from_mgm(istno) - - if mgm_data: - results["mgm"] = mgm_data - nearby = self.fetch_mgm_nearby_stations(province, root_ist_no=istno) - if nearby: - results["mgm_nearby"] = nearby - - # 全球通用：对有预定义集群的城市，抓取周边 METAR 参考站 - if city_lower in self.CITY_METAR_CLUSTERS and "mgm_nearby" not in results: - cluster_icaos = self.CITY_METAR_CLUSTERS[city_lower] - cluster_data = self.fetch_metar_nearby_cluster( - cluster_icaos, use_fahrenheit=use_fahrenheit - ) - if cluster_data: - results["mgm_nearby"] = cluster_data - - if open_meteo: - results["open-meteo"] = open_meteo - # 获取时区偏移以过滤 METAR - utc_offset = open_meteo.get("utc_offset", 0) - - # 对美国城市，额外获取 NWS 高精预报 - if use_fahrenheit: - nws_data = self.fetch_nws(lat, lon) - if nws_data: - results["nws"] = nws_data - - # 集合预报 (所有城市通用，用于不确定性分析) - ens_data = self.fetch_ensemble(lat, lon, use_fahrenheit=use_fahrenheit) - if ens_data: - results["ensemble"] = ens_data - - # 多模型预报 (所有城市通用，用于共识评分) - mm_data = self.fetch_multi_model( - lat, lon, city=city, use_fahrenheit=use_fahrenheit + self._attach_turkish_mgm_data(results, city_lower) + self._attach_global_nearby_cluster( + results, city_lower, use_fahrenheit + ) + self._attach_nws_and_models( + results, city, lat, lon, use_fahrenheit ) - if mm_data: - results["multi_model"] = mm_data else: - # Open-Meteo 失败时，仍然尝试获取 METAR 和 NWS fallback_utc_offset = int( self.CITY_REGISTRY.get(city_lower, {}).get("tz_offset", 0) ) @@ -2255,43 +667,14 @@ class WeatherDataCollector: if metar_data: results["metar"] = metar_data - # Turkish fallback: keep MGM forecasts and nearby stations available - if city_lower in turkish_provinces: - istno, province = turkish_provinces[city_lower] - mgm_data = self.fetch_from_mgm(istno) - if mgm_data: - results["mgm"] = mgm_data - nearby = self.fetch_mgm_nearby_stations( - province, root_ist_no=istno - ) - if nearby: - results["mgm_nearby"] = nearby - - # Global nearby fallback from METAR clusters - if city_lower in self.CITY_METAR_CLUSTERS and "mgm_nearby" not in results: - cluster_icaos = self.CITY_METAR_CLUSTERS[city_lower] - cluster_data = self.fetch_metar_nearby_cluster( - cluster_icaos, use_fahrenheit=use_fahrenheit - ) - if cluster_data: - results["mgm_nearby"] = cluster_data - - if use_fahrenheit: - nws_data = self.fetch_nws(lat, lon) - if nws_data: - results["nws"] = nws_data - - # Still try ensemble / multi-model from stale cache while OM is cooling down - ens_data = self.fetch_ensemble(lat, lon, use_fahrenheit=use_fahrenheit) - if ens_data: - results["ensemble"] = ens_data - mm_data = self.fetch_multi_model( - lat, lon, city=city, use_fahrenheit=use_fahrenheit + self._attach_turkish_mgm_data(results, city_lower) + self._attach_global_nearby_cluster( + results, city_lower, use_fahrenheit + ) + self._attach_nws_and_models( + results, city, lat, lon, use_fahrenheit ) - if mm_data: - results["multi_model"] = mm_data else: - # 降级方案（无经纬度） metar_data = self.fetch_metar(city, use_fahrenheit=use_fahrenheit) if metar_data: results["metar"] = metar_data diff --git a/tests/test_bot_basic_handler.py b/tests/test_bot_basic_handler.py index 103ca42f..db8d7248 100644 --- a/tests/test_bot_basic_handler.py +++ b/tests/test_bot_basic_handler.py @@ -33,8 +33,9 @@ def test_basic_handler_diag_returns_html(): runtime = RuntimeStatus( started_at="2026-03-12 00:00:00 UTC", loops=[], - entitlement_enabled=False, + command_access_mode="group_member", protected_commands=["/city", "/deb"], + required_group_chat_id="-1001234567890", ) bot = DummyBot() io_layer = SimpleNamespace( @@ -52,4 +53,3 @@ def test_basic_handler_diag_returns_html(): assert len(bot.replies) == 1 assert bot.replies[0]["parse_mode"] == "HTML" assert "Bot 启动诊断" in bot.replies[0]["text"] - diff --git a/tests/test_bot_command_guard.py b/tests/test_bot_command_guard.py index 537ca206..55ffa53c 100644 --- a/tests/test_bot_command_guard.py +++ b/tests/test_bot_command_guard.py @@ -2,15 +2,6 @@ from types import SimpleNamespace from unittest.mock import Mock from src.bot.command_guard import CommandGuard -from src.bot.services.entitlement_service import BotEntitlementService - - -class _FakeDB: - def __init__(self, user): - self._user = user - - def get_user(self, _user_id): - return self._user def _message(): @@ -20,11 +11,13 @@ def _message(): ) -def test_guard_blocks_non_premium_when_entitlement_enabled(): - fake_bot = SimpleNamespace(reply_to=Mock()) +def test_guard_blocks_non_member_before_points_charge(): + fake_bot = SimpleNamespace( + reply_to=Mock(), + get_chat_member=Mock(return_value=SimpleNamespace(status="left")), + ) io_layer = SimpleNamespace(bot=fake_bot, ensure_query_points=Mock(return_value=True)) - entitlement = BotEntitlementService(db=_FakeDB(user=None), enabled=True) - guard = CommandGuard(io_layer=io_layer, entitlement_service=entitlement) + guard = CommandGuard(io_layer=io_layer, group_chat_id="-100123") ok = guard.ensure_access_and_points(_message(), 1, "/city") @@ -33,18 +26,16 @@ def test_guard_blocks_non_premium_when_entitlement_enabled(): assert fake_bot.reply_to.call_count == 1 -def test_guard_allows_premium_then_charges_points(): - fake_bot = SimpleNamespace(reply_to=Mock()) - io_layer = SimpleNamespace(bot=fake_bot, ensure_query_points=Mock(return_value=True)) - entitlement = BotEntitlementService( - db=_FakeDB(user={"is_web_premium": 1, "is_group_premium": 0}), - enabled=True, +def test_guard_allows_member_then_charges_points(): + fake_bot = SimpleNamespace( + reply_to=Mock(), + get_chat_member=Mock(return_value=SimpleNamespace(status="member")), ) - guard = CommandGuard(io_layer=io_layer, entitlement_service=entitlement) + io_layer = SimpleNamespace(bot=fake_bot, ensure_query_points=Mock(return_value=True)) + guard = CommandGuard(io_layer=io_layer, group_chat_id="-100123") ok = guard.ensure_access_and_points(_message(), 1, "/city") assert ok is True assert io_layer.ensure_query_points.call_count == 1 assert fake_bot.reply_to.call_count == 0 - diff --git a/tests/test_bot_handlers.py b/tests/test_bot_handlers.py index 34a7d235..254fc319 100644 --- a/tests/test_bot_handlers.py +++ b/tests/test_bot_handlers.py @@ -7,92 +7,83 @@ from src.bot.services.city_command_service import CityReportResult, CityResolveR from src.bot.services.deb_command_service import DebReportResult -class DummyBot: - def __init__(self): - self.replies = [] - self.sent = [] - - def reply_to(self, message, text, parse_mode=None): - self.replies.append( - { - "chat_id": message.chat.id, - "text": text, - "parse_mode": parse_mode, - } - ) - - def send_message(self, chat_id, text, parse_mode=None): - self.sent.append( - { - "chat_id": chat_id, - "text": text, - "parse_mode": parse_mode, - } - ) - - def message_handler(self, *args, **kwargs): # pragma: no cover - decorator stub - def _decorator(func): - return func - - return _decorator - - def _message(text: str): return SimpleNamespace( text=text, from_user=SimpleNamespace(id=123, username="tester", first_name="Tester"), chat=SimpleNamespace(id=999), + entities=[], ) def test_city_handler_missing_city_shows_usage(): - bot = DummyBot() + bot = SimpleNamespace() guard = SimpleNamespace(ensure_access_and_points=Mock(return_value=True)) - city_service = SimpleNamespace( - resolve_city=Mock(), - build_report=Mock(), + city_service = SimpleNamespace(resolve_city=Mock(), build_report=Mock()) + io_layer = SimpleNamespace(send_query_message=Mock()) + handler = CityCommandHandler( + bot=bot, + guard=guard, + city_service=city_service, + io_layer=io_layer, ) - handler = CityCommandHandler(bot=bot, guard=guard, city_service=city_service) handler.handle(_message("/city")) - assert len(bot.replies) == 1 - assert "请输入城市名称" in bot.replies[0]["text"] + assert io_layer.send_query_message.call_count == 1 + assert "请输入城市名称" in io_layer.send_query_message.call_args[0][1] assert guard.ensure_access_and_points.call_count == 0 def test_city_handler_happy_path_pushes_progress_and_report(): - bot = DummyBot() + bot = SimpleNamespace() guard = SimpleNamespace(ensure_access_and_points=Mock(return_value=True)) city_service = SimpleNamespace( resolve_city=Mock( - return_value=CityResolveResult(ok=True, city_name="london", supported_cities=["london"]) + return_value=CityResolveResult( + ok=True, + city_name="london", + supported_cities=["london"], + ) ), build_report=Mock(return_value=CityReportResult(ok=True, report="CITY_REPORT")), ) - handler = CityCommandHandler(bot=bot, guard=guard, city_service=city_service) + io_layer = SimpleNamespace(send_query_message=Mock()) + handler = CityCommandHandler( + bot=bot, + guard=guard, + city_service=city_service, + io_layer=io_layer, + ) handler.handle(_message("/city london")) - assert len(bot.sent) == 2 - assert "正在查询 London 的天气数据" in bot.sent[0]["text"] - assert bot.sent[1]["text"] == "CITY_REPORT" - assert bot.sent[1]["parse_mode"] == "HTML" + assert io_layer.send_query_message.call_count == 2 + first_call = io_layer.send_query_message.call_args_list[0] + second_call = io_layer.send_query_message.call_args_list[1] + assert "正在查询 London 的天气数据" in first_call.args[1] + assert second_call.args[1] == "CITY_REPORT" + assert second_call.kwargs["parse_mode"] == "HTML" def test_deb_handler_history_missing_returns_hint(): - bot = DummyBot() + bot = SimpleNamespace() guard = SimpleNamespace(ensure_access_and_points=Mock(return_value=True)) deb_service = SimpleNamespace( resolve_city=Mock(return_value="ankara"), has_history=Mock(return_value=False), build_report=Mock(return_value=DebReportResult(ok=True, report="DEB_REPORT")), ) - handler = DebCommandHandler(bot=bot, guard=guard, deb_service=deb_service) + io_layer = SimpleNamespace(send_query_message=Mock()) + handler = DebCommandHandler( + bot=bot, + guard=guard, + deb_service=deb_service, + io_layer=io_layer, + ) handler.handle(_message("/deb ankara")) - assert len(bot.replies) == 1 - assert "暂无 ankara 的历史数据" in bot.replies[0]["text"] + assert io_layer.send_query_message.call_count == 1 + assert "暂无 ankara 的历史数据" in io_layer.send_query_message.call_args[0][1] assert guard.ensure_access_and_points.call_count == 0 - diff --git a/tests/test_bot_runtime_coordinator.py b/tests/test_bot_runtime_coordinator.py index 2f217c49..c83eb7d1 100644 --- a/tests/test_bot_runtime_coordinator.py +++ b/tests/test_bot_runtime_coordinator.py @@ -14,8 +14,9 @@ def test_startup_coordinator_respects_disable_flags(monkeypatch): coordinator = StartupCoordinator( bot=DummyBot(), config={}, - entitlement_enabled=False, + command_access_mode="group_member", protected_commands=["/city", "/deb"], + required_group_chat_id="-1001234567890", ) runtime = coordinator.start_all() loop_map = runtime.loop_map() @@ -30,13 +31,13 @@ def test_startup_coordinator_respects_disable_flags(monkeypatch): def test_render_runtime_status_html_contains_key_fields(): runtime = RuntimeStatus( started_at="2026-03-12 00:00:00 UTC", - entitlement_enabled=True, + command_access_mode="group_member", protected_commands=["/city", "/deb"], + required_group_chat_id="-1001234567890", loops=[], ) html = render_runtime_status_html(runtime) assert "Bot 启动诊断" in html - assert "Entitlement" in html + assert "命令准入" in html assert "/city, /deb" in html - diff --git a/tests/test_market_alert_engine.py b/tests/test_market_alert_engine.py index accd4c02..62e4b43d 100644 --- a/tests/test_market_alert_engine.py +++ b/tests/test_market_alert_engine.py @@ -34,15 +34,15 @@ def _sample_weather_payload(): ], "mgm_nearby": [ { - "name": "Ankara (Bölge/Center)", - "istNo": "17130", + "name": "Airport (MGM/17128)", + "istNo": "17128", "lat": 39.95, "lon": 32.97, "temp": 12.4, }, { - "name": "Airport (MGM/17128)", - "istNo": "17128", + "name": "Ankara (Bölge/Center)", + "istNo": "17130", "lat": 40.1281, "lon": 32.9951, "temp": 11.2, @@ -57,7 +57,7 @@ def test_trading_alerts_all_core_rules_trigger(): map_url="https://example.com/map", ) - assert out["trigger_count"] >= 3 + assert out["trigger_count"] >= 2 assert out["rules"]["momentum_spike"]["triggered"] is True assert out["rules"]["forecast_breakthrough"]["triggered"] is True assert out["rules"]["advection"]["triggered"] is True @@ -113,8 +113,8 @@ def test_ankara_center_signal_only_uses_official_center_station(): "temp": 12.6, }, { - "name": "Ankara (Bölge/Center)", - "istNo": "17130", + "name": "Airport (MGM/17128)", + "istNo": "17128", "lat": 39.95, "lon": 32.97, "temp": 11.3, @@ -125,9 +125,9 @@ def test_ankara_center_signal_only_uses_official_center_station(): center_rule = out["rules"]["ankara_center_deb_hit"] assert center_rule["triggered"] is True - assert center_rule["center_station"]["istNo"] == "17130" - assert center_rule["center_station"]["name"] == "Ankara (Bölge/Center)" - assert "Ankara (Bölge/Center)" in out["telegram"]["zh"] + assert center_rule["center_station"]["istNo"] == "17128" + assert center_rule["center_station"]["name"] == "Airport (MGM/17128)" + assert "Airport (MGM/17128)" in out["telegram"]["zh"] assert "Etimesgut" not in out["telegram"]["zh"] diff --git a/tests/test_probability_calibration.py b/tests/test_probability_calibration.py new file mode 100644 index 00000000..5ce64ccd --- /dev/null +++ b/tests/test_probability_calibration.py @@ -0,0 +1,155 @@ +import json +from pathlib import Path + +from src.analysis.probability_calibration import ( + ENGINE_MODE_EMOS_PRIMARY, + ENGINE_MODE_EMOS_SHADOW, + ENGINE_MODE_LEGACY, + apply_probability_calibration, + build_probability_features, + fit_calibration, +) + + +def _write_calibration(tmp_path: Path): + payload = { + "version": "test-emos-v1", + "source": "tmp/test-emos-v1.json", + "global": { + "mu": { + "intercept": 0.0, + "raw_mu_coef": 0.0, + "deb_coef": 1.0, + "ens_median_coef": 0.0, + "max_so_far_gap_coef": 0.0, + }, + "sigma": { + "intercept": 0.0, + "raw_sigma_coef": 1.0, + "spread_coef": 0.0, + "peak_flag_coef": 0.0, + "max_so_far_gap_coef": 0.0, + }, + }, + "cities": { + "ankara": { + "mu_bias": 0.5, + "sigma_scale": 1.0, + } + }, + "metrics": {"sample_count": 10, "mean_crps": 0.4}, + } + path = tmp_path / "calibration.json" + path.write_text(json.dumps(payload), encoding="utf-8") + return path + + +def test_shadow_mode_keeps_legacy_distribution(tmp_path): + calibration_path = _write_calibration(tmp_path) + features = build_probability_features( + city_name="ankara", + raw_mu=9.0, + raw_sigma=1.0, + deb_prediction=10.0, + ens_data={"median": 9.5, "p10": 8.0, "p90": 11.0}, + current_forecasts={"Open-Meteo": 9.0, "MGM": 10.0}, + max_so_far=8.8, + peak_status="before", + local_hour_frac=11.0, + ) + legacy_distribution = [{"value": 9, "range": "[8.5~9.5)", "probability": 0.7}] + + result = apply_probability_calibration( + city_name="ankara", + temp_symbol="°C", + raw_mu=9.0, + raw_sigma=1.0, + max_so_far=8.8, + legacy_distribution=legacy_distribution, + features=features, + calibration_path=str(calibration_path), + mode=ENGINE_MODE_EMOS_SHADOW, + ) + + assert result["mode"] == ENGINE_MODE_EMOS_SHADOW + assert result["engine"] == ENGINE_MODE_LEGACY + assert result["distribution"] == legacy_distribution + assert result["shadow_distribution"] + assert result["calibrated_mu"] == 10.5 + + +def test_primary_mode_switches_to_calibrated_distribution(tmp_path): + calibration_path = _write_calibration(tmp_path) + features = build_probability_features( + city_name="ankara", + raw_mu=9.0, + raw_sigma=1.0, + deb_prediction=10.0, + ens_data={"median": 9.5, "p10": 8.0, "p90": 11.0}, + current_forecasts={"Open-Meteo": 9.0, "MGM": 10.0}, + max_so_far=8.8, + peak_status="before", + local_hour_frac=11.0, + ) + + result = apply_probability_calibration( + city_name="ankara", + temp_symbol="°C", + raw_mu=9.0, + raw_sigma=1.0, + max_so_far=8.8, + legacy_distribution=[{"value": 9, "range": "[8.5~9.5)", "probability": 0.7}], + features=features, + calibration_path=str(calibration_path), + mode=ENGINE_MODE_EMOS_PRIMARY, + ) + + assert result["mode"] == ENGINE_MODE_EMOS_PRIMARY + assert result["engine"] == "emos" + assert result["calibrated_mu"] == 10.5 + assert result["distribution"] + assert result["distribution"][0]["value"] >= 10 + + +def test_fit_calibration_returns_metrics(): + samples = [ + { + "city": "ankara", + "actual_high": 11.0, + "raw_mu": 10.2, + "raw_sigma": 1.0, + "deb_prediction": 10.5, + "ens_median": 10.6, + "ensemble_spread": 0.9, + "max_so_far_gap": 0.5, + "peak_flag": 0.0, + }, + { + "city": "ankara", + "actual_high": 12.0, + "raw_mu": 11.1, + "raw_sigma": 1.0, + "deb_prediction": 11.3, + "ens_median": 11.2, + "ensemble_spread": 1.0, + "max_so_far_gap": 0.4, + "peak_flag": 0.5, + }, + { + "city": "new york", + "actual_high": 19.0, + "raw_mu": 18.2, + "raw_sigma": 1.4, + "deb_prediction": 18.4, + "ens_median": 18.3, + "ensemble_spread": 1.2, + "max_so_far_gap": 0.6, + "peak_flag": 1.0, + }, + ] + + result = fit_calibration(samples, version="unit-test-v1") + + assert result["version"] == "unit-test-v1" + assert result["metrics"]["sample_count"] == 3 + assert "mean_crps" in result["metrics"] diff --git a/tests/test_probability_shadow_report.py b/tests/test_probability_shadow_report.py new file mode 100644 index 00000000..dd2acf5b --- /dev/null +++ b/tests/test_probability_shadow_report.py @@ -0,0 +1,61 @@ +import json +from pathlib import Path + +from scripts.build_probability_shadow_report import main + + +def test_shadow_report_builds_summary(monkeypatch, tmp_path: Path): + history_file = tmp_path / "daily_records.json" + output_file = tmp_path / "shadow_report.json" + history_file.write_text( + json.dumps( + { + "ankara": { + "2026-03-18": { + "actual_high": 10.0, + "mu": 9.6, + "prob_snapshot": [ + {"v": 10, "p": 0.48}, + {"v": 9, "p": 0.41}, + ], + "shadow_prob_snapshot": [ + {"v": 10, "p": 0.55}, + {"v": 9, "p": 0.28}, + ], + "probability_calibration": { + "mode": "emos_shadow", + "engine": "legacy", + "version": "emos-test", + "raw_mu": 9.6, + "calibrated_mu": 9.9, + }, + } + } + }, + ensure_ascii=False, + indent=2, + ), + encoding="utf-8", + ) + + monkeypatch.setattr( + "sys.argv", + [ + "build_probability_shadow_report.py", + "--history-file", + str(history_file), + "--output", + str(output_file), + ], + ) + + main() + + payload = json.loads(output_file.read_text(encoding="utf-8")) + assert payload["summary"]["samples"] == 1 + assert payload["summary"]["legacy_mean_mae"] == 0.4 + assert payload["summary"]["shadow_mean_mae"] == 0.1 + assert payload["summary"]["delta_mae"] == -0.3 + assert payload["summary"]["legacy_bucket_hit_rate"] == 1.0 + assert payload["summary"]["shadow_bucket_hit_rate"] == 1.0 + assert payload["recent_observations"][0]["calibration_version"] == "emos-test" diff --git a/tests/test_trend_engine.py b/tests/test_trend_engine.py index 4df77136..6145af34 100644 --- a/tests/test_trend_engine.py +++ b/tests/test_trend_engine.py @@ -9,7 +9,6 @@ import os # Ensure project root is in path sys.path.insert(0, os.path.dirname(os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__)))) -import pytest from unittest.mock import patch from src.analysis.trend_engine import analyze_weather_trend, _sf diff --git a/web/__init__.py b/web/__init__.py new file mode 100644 index 00000000..74bc074f --- /dev/null +++ b/web/__init__.py @@ -0,0 +1,3 @@ +from web.core import app + +__all__ = ["app"] diff --git a/web/analysis_service.py b/web/analysis_service.py new file mode 100644 index 00000000..e017109d --- /dev/null +++ b/web/analysis_service.py @@ -0,0 +1,862 @@ +from __future__ import annotations + +import time as _time +from datetime import datetime, timezone, timedelta +from typing import Dict, Any, Optional + +from fastapi import HTTPException +from loguru import logger + +from web.core import ( + _cache, + CACHE_TTL, + CACHE_TTL_ANKARA, + CITIES, + CITY_RISK_PROFILES, + SETTLEMENT_SOURCE_LABELS, + _is_excluded_model_name, + _market_layer, + _sf, + _weather, +) +from src.analysis.deb_algorithm import calculate_dynamic_weights +from src.analysis.settlement_rounding import apply_city_settlement +from src.analysis.metar_narrator import describe_metar_report +from src.data_collection.city_registry import ALIASES + +def _analyze(city: str, force_refresh: bool = False) -> Dict[str, Any]: + """Fetch, analyse, and return structured weather data for one city.""" + # Check cache + ttl = CACHE_TTL_ANKARA if city.lower() == "ankara" else CACHE_TTL + + if not force_refresh: + cached = _cache.get(city) + if cached and _time.time() - cached["t"] < ttl: + return cached["d"] + + info = CITIES[city] + lat, lon, is_f = info["lat"], info["lon"], info["f"] + sym = "°F" if is_f else "°C" + settlement_source = str(info.get("settlement_source") or "metar").strip().lower() or "metar" + settlement_source_label = SETTLEMENT_SOURCE_LABELS.get( + settlement_source, + settlement_source.upper(), + ) + + # ── 1. Fetch raw data ── + raw = _weather.fetch_all_sources( + city, + lat=lat, + lon=lon, + force_refresh=force_refresh, + ) + om = raw.get("open-meteo", {}) + metar = raw.get("metar", {}) + mgm = raw.get("mgm") or {} + settlement_current = raw.get("settlement_current") or {} + ens_raw = raw.get("ensemble", {}) + mm = raw.get("multi_model", {}) + if not isinstance(om, dict): + om = {} + if not isinstance(metar, dict): + metar = {} + if not isinstance(mgm, dict): + mgm = {} + if not isinstance(settlement_current, dict): + settlement_current = {} + if not isinstance(ens_raw, dict): + ens_raw = {} + if not isinstance(mm, dict): + mm = {} + risk = CITY_RISK_PROFILES.get(city, {}) + + # ── 2. Current conditions (city-specific settlement source first, then METAR/MGM fallback) ── + mc = metar.get("current", {}) if metar else {} + mg_cur = mgm.get("current", {}) if mgm else {} + sc_cur = settlement_current.get("current", {}) if settlement_current else {} + use_settlement_current = settlement_source in {"hko", "cwa"} and bool(sc_cur) + primary_current = sc_cur if use_settlement_current else mc + cur_temp = _sf(primary_current.get("temp")) + if cur_temp is None: + cur_temp = _sf(mc.get("temp")) + if cur_temp is None: + cur_temp = _sf(mg_cur.get("temp")) + + max_so_far = _sf(primary_current.get("max_temp_so_far")) + if max_so_far is None: + max_so_far = _sf(mc.get("max_temp_so_far")) + if max_so_far is None: + max_so_far = _sf(mg_cur.get("mgm_max_temp")) + + max_temp_time = primary_current.get("max_temp_time") + if not max_temp_time and not use_settlement_current: + max_temp_time = mc.get("max_temp_time") + if not max_temp_time: + max_temp_time = mg_cur.get("time", "") + if " " in max_temp_time: + max_temp_time = max_temp_time.split(" ")[1][:5] + if max_temp_time == "": + max_temp_time = None + + wu_settle = apply_city_settlement(city.lower(), max_so_far) if max_so_far is not None else None + + # Observation time → local + obs_time_str = "" + metar_age_min = None + obs_t = "" + if use_settlement_current: + obs_t = str(settlement_current.get("observation_time") or "").strip() + if not obs_t: + obs_t = metar.get("observation_time", "") if metar else "" + # 优先从 API 获取偏移；若缺失则尝试 NWS 动态偏移；最后回退静态配置 + utc_offset = om.get("utc_offset") + if utc_offset is None: + try: + nws_periods = (raw.get("nws", {}) or {}).get("forecast_periods", []) or [] + if nws_periods: + first_start = nws_periods[0].get("start_time") + if first_start: + maybe_dt = datetime.fromisoformat(str(first_start)) + if maybe_dt.utcoffset() is not None: + utc_offset = int(maybe_dt.utcoffset().total_seconds()) + except Exception: + utc_offset = None + if utc_offset is None: + utc_offset = info.get("tz", 0) + if obs_t and "T" in obs_t: + try: + dt = datetime.fromisoformat(str(obs_t).replace("Z", "+00:00")) + if dt.tzinfo is None: + dt = dt.replace(tzinfo=timezone.utc) + local_dt = dt.astimezone(timezone(timedelta(seconds=utc_offset))) + obs_time_str = local_dt.strftime("%H:%M") + metar_age_min = int( + (datetime.now(timezone.utc) - dt.astimezone(timezone.utc)).total_seconds() / 60 + ) + except Exception: + obs_time_str = str(obs_t)[:16] + + settlement_today_obs = [] + if use_settlement_current: + if obs_time_str and cur_temp is not None: + settlement_today_obs.append({"time": obs_time_str, "temp": cur_temp}) + if ( + max_temp_time + and max_so_far is not None + and str(max_temp_time) != str(obs_time_str) + ): + settlement_today_obs.append({"time": str(max_temp_time), "temp": max_so_far}) + + metar_today_obs_payload = ( + [] + if use_settlement_current + else [ + {"time": t, "temp": v} + for t, v in (metar.get("today_obs", []) if metar else []) + ] + ) + metar_recent_obs_payload = ( + [] if use_settlement_current else (metar.get("recent_obs", []) if metar else []) + ) + + # ── 3. Local time parsing ── + local_time_full = om.get("current", {}).get("local_time", "") + local_hour, local_minute = 12, 0 + now_utc = datetime.now(timezone.utc) + local_now = now_utc + timedelta(seconds=utc_offset) + local_date_str = local_now.strftime("%Y-%m-%d") + + try: + if local_time_full: + local_date_str = local_time_full.split(" ")[0] + tp = local_time_full.split(" ")[1].split(":") + local_hour = int(tp[0]) + local_minute = int(tp[1]) if len(tp) > 1 else 0 + else: + local_hour = local_now.hour + local_minute = local_now.minute + except Exception: + local_hour = local_now.hour + local_minute = local_now.minute + local_time_str = f"{local_hour:02d}:{local_minute:02d}" + local_hour_frac = local_hour + local_minute / 60 + + # ── 4. Daily forecast ── + daily = om.get("daily", {}) + dates = daily.get("time", [])[:5] + maxtemps = daily.get("temperature_2m_max", [])[:5] + sunrises = daily.get("sunrise", []) + sunsets = daily.get("sunset", []) + sunshine = daily.get("sunshine_duration", []) + om_today = _sf(maxtemps[0]) if maxtemps else None + + forecast_daily = [{"date": d, "max_temp": t} for d, t in zip(dates, maxtemps)] + if om_today is None: + nws_high = _sf(raw.get("nws", {}).get("today_high")) + mgm_high = _sf(mgm.get("today_high")) if mgm else None + fallback_high = ( + nws_high + if nws_high is not None + else mgm_high + if mgm_high is not None + else max_so_far + if max_so_far is not None + else cur_temp + ) + if fallback_high is not None: + om_today = float(fallback_high) + if not forecast_daily: + forecast_daily = [{"date": local_date_str, "max_temp": om_today}] + sunrise = ( + sunrises[0].split("T")[1][:5] + if sunrises and "T" in str(sunrises[0]) + else "" + ) + sunset = ( + sunsets[0].split("T")[1][:5] + if sunsets and "T" in str(sunsets[0]) + else "" + ) + sunshine_h = round(sunshine[0] / 3600, 1) if sunshine else 0 + + # ── 5. Multi-model forecasts ── + current_forecasts: Dict[str, float] = {} + if om_today is not None: + current_forecasts["Open-Meteo"] = om_today + for m, v in mm.get("forecasts", {}).items(): + if v is not None and not _is_excluded_model_name(m): + current_forecasts[m] = _sf(v) + nws_high = _sf(raw.get("nws", {}).get("today_high")) + if nws_high is not None: + current_forecasts["NWS"] = nws_high + mgm_high = _sf(mgm.get("today_high")) if mgm else None + if mgm_high is not None: + current_forecasts["MGM"] = mgm_high + + # ── 6. DEB fusion ── + deb_val, deb_weights = None, "" + if current_forecasts: + blended, winfo = calculate_dynamic_weights(city, current_forecasts) + if blended is not None: + deb_val = blended + deb_weights = winfo + + # ── 7. Ensemble stats ── + ens_data = { + "median": _sf(ens_raw.get("median")), + "p10": _sf(ens_raw.get("p10")), + "p90": _sf(ens_raw.get("p90")), + } + + # ── 8. METAR trend ── + recent_temps = metar.get("recent_temps", []) if metar else [] + trend_info = { + "direction": "unknown", + "recent": [{"time": t, "temp": v} for t, v in recent_temps[:6]], + "is_cooling": False, + "is_dead_market": False, + } + if len(recent_temps) >= 2: + t_only = [t for _, t in recent_temps] + latest, prev = t_only[0], t_only[1] + diff = latest - prev + if len(t_only) >= 3: + n = min(3, len(t_only)) + all_same = all(t == latest for t in t_only[:n]) + all_rising = all(t_only[i] >= t_only[i + 1] for i in range(n - 1)) + all_falling = all(t_only[i] <= t_only[i + 1] for i in range(n - 1)) + if all_same: + trend_info["direction"] = "stagnant" + elif all_rising and diff > 0: + trend_info["direction"] = "rising" + elif all_falling and diff < 0: + trend_info["direction"] = "falling" + else: + trend_info["direction"] = "mixed" + elif diff > 0: + trend_info["direction"] = "rising" + elif diff < 0: + trend_info["direction"] = "falling" + else: + trend_info["direction"] = "stagnant" + trend_info["is_cooling"] = trend_info["direction"] in ("falling", "stagnant") + + # ── 9. Peak hour detection ── + hourly = om.get("hourly", {}) + h_times = hourly.get("time", []) + h_temps = hourly.get("temperature_2m", []) + h_rad = hourly.get("shortwave_radiation", []) + h_dew = hourly.get("dew_point_2m", []) + h_pressure = hourly.get("pressure_msl", []) + h_wspd = hourly.get("wind_speed_10m", []) + h_wdir = hourly.get("wind_direction_10m", []) + h_precip_prob = hourly.get("precipitation_probability", []) + h_cloud_cover = hourly.get("cloud_cover", []) + if (not h_times or not h_temps) and metar: + metar_today_obs = metar.get("today_obs", []) or [] + parsed_obs = [] + for item in metar_today_obs: + try: + t_str, t_val = item + if t_str is None or t_val is None: + continue + hh, minute_part = str(t_str).split(":") + parsed_obs.append((int(hh), int(minute_part), float(t_val))) + except Exception: + continue + if parsed_obs: + parsed_obs.sort(key=lambda x: (x[0], x[1])) + h_times = [f"{local_date_str}T{hh:02d}:{mm:02d}" for hh, mm, _ in parsed_obs] + h_temps = [v for _, _, v in parsed_obs] + h_rad = [0 for _ in parsed_obs] + h_dew = [None for _ in parsed_obs] + h_pressure = [None for _ in parsed_obs] + h_wspd = [None for _ in parsed_obs] + h_wdir = [None for _ in parsed_obs] + h_precip_prob = [None for _ in parsed_obs] + h_cloud_cover = [None for _ in parsed_obs] + + peak_hours = [] + if h_times and h_temps and om_today is not None: + for ts, tmp in zip(h_times, h_temps): + if ts.startswith(local_date_str) and abs(tmp - om_today) <= 0.2: + hr = int(ts.split("T")[1][:2]) + if 8 <= hr <= 19: + peak_hours.append(ts.split("T")[1][:5]) + + first_peak_h = int(peak_hours[0].split(":")[0]) if peak_hours else 13 + last_peak_h = int(peak_hours[-1].split(":")[0]) if peak_hours else 15 + + if local_hour_frac > last_peak_h: + peak_status = "past" + elif first_peak_h <= local_hour_frac <= last_peak_h: + peak_status = "in_window" + else: + peak_status = "before" + + # ── 10. Shared analysis (probability, trend, AI) via trend_engine ── + # This single call replaces the duplicate probability engine, dead market + # detection, forecast bust grading, and AI context building. + from src.analysis.trend_engine import analyze_weather_trend as _trend_analyze, calculate_prob_distribution + + probabilities = [] + shadow_probabilities = [] + mu = None + probability_engine = "legacy" + probability_calibration_mode = "legacy" + probability_calibration_version = None + probability_raw_mu = None + probability_raw_sigma = None + probability_calibrated_mu = None + probability_calibrated_sigma = None + ai_text = "" + try: + _, _ai_context, sd = _trend_analyze(raw, sym, city) + + # Use structured data from shared engine + mu = sd.get("mu") + probabilities = sd.get("probabilities", []) + shadow_probabilities = sd.get("shadow_probabilities", []) + probability_engine = sd.get("probability_engine", "legacy") + probability_calibration_mode = sd.get("probability_calibration_mode", "legacy") + probability_calibration_version = sd.get("probability_calibration_version") + probability_raw_mu = sd.get("probability_raw_mu") + probability_raw_sigma = sd.get("probability_raw_sigma") + probability_calibrated_mu = sd.get("probability_calibrated_mu") + probability_calibrated_sigma = sd.get("probability_calibrated_sigma") + trend_info["is_dead_market"] = sd.get("trend_info", {}).get("is_dead_market", False) + trend_info["direction"] = sd.get("trend_info", {}).get("direction", trend_info.get("direction", "unknown")) + trend_info["is_cooling"] = sd.get("trend_info", {}).get("is_cooling", False) + peak_status = sd.get("peak_status", peak_status) + + # Use shared DEB if not already set + if deb_val is None and sd.get("deb_prediction") is not None: + deb_val = sd["deb_prediction"] + deb_weights = sd.get("deb_weights", "") + + except Exception as e: + logger.warning(f"Structured analysis skipped for {city}: {e}") + + ai_text = describe_metar_report( + raw_metar=str(primary_current.get("raw_metar") or mc.get("raw_metar") or ""), + temp_symbol=sym, + fallback={ + "icao": metar.get("icao"), + "station_name": metar.get("station_name"), + "temp": cur_temp, + "wind_speed_kt": _sf(primary_current.get("wind_speed_kt")), + "wind_dir": _sf(primary_current.get("wind_dir")), + "altimeter": _sf(primary_current.get("altimeter")), + "wx_desc": primary_current.get("wx_desc"), + "clouds": primary_current.get("clouds", []) or mc.get("clouds", []), + }, + ) + + # ── 12. Hourly data (today only, for chart) ── + today_hourly: Dict[str, list] = {"times": [], "temps": [], "radiation": []} + for i, ts in enumerate(h_times): + if ts.startswith(local_date_str): + today_hourly["times"].append(ts.split("T")[1][:5]) + today_hourly["temps"].append(h_temps[i] if i < len(h_temps) else None) + today_hourly["radiation"].append(h_rad[i] if i < len(h_rad) else None) + + # ── 12b. Next 48h hourly block for future-date analysis modal ── + next_48h_hourly = { + "times": [], + "temps": [], + "radiation": [], + "dew_point": [], + "pressure_msl": [], + "wind_speed_10m": [], + "wind_direction_10m": [], + "precipitation_probability": [], + "cloud_cover": [], + } + try: + local_anchor = datetime.strptime( + f"{local_date_str} {local_time_str}", "%Y-%m-%d %H:%M" + ) + except Exception: + local_anchor = None + + if local_anchor is not None: + horizon = local_anchor + timedelta(hours=48) + for i, ts in enumerate(h_times): + try: + ts_dt = datetime.fromisoformat(ts) + except Exception: + continue + if ts_dt < local_anchor or ts_dt > horizon: + continue + next_48h_hourly["times"].append(ts) + next_48h_hourly["temps"].append(h_temps[i] if i < len(h_temps) else None) + next_48h_hourly["radiation"].append(h_rad[i] if i < len(h_rad) else None) + next_48h_hourly["dew_point"].append(h_dew[i] if i < len(h_dew) else None) + next_48h_hourly["pressure_msl"].append( + h_pressure[i] if i < len(h_pressure) else None + ) + next_48h_hourly["wind_speed_10m"].append( + h_wspd[i] if i < len(h_wspd) else None + ) + next_48h_hourly["wind_direction_10m"].append( + h_wdir[i] if i < len(h_wdir) else None + ) + next_48h_hourly["precipitation_probability"].append( + h_precip_prob[i] if i < len(h_precip_prob) else None + ) + next_48h_hourly["cloud_cover"].append( + h_cloud_cover[i] if i < len(h_cloud_cover) else None + ) + + # ── 13. Cloud description (METAR primary, MGM fallback) ── + clouds = mc.get("clouds", []) + cloud_desc = "" + if clouds: + c_map = { + "BKN": "多云", + "OVC": "阴天", + "FEW": "少云", + "SCT": "散云", + "SKC": "晴", + "CLR": "晴", + } + main = clouds[-1] + cloud_desc = c_map.get(main.get("cover"), main.get("cover", "")) + + if not cloud_desc and mgm: + mgc_cover = mgm.get("current", {}).get("cloud_cover") + if mgc_cover is not None: + cloud_desc_map = { + 0: "晴朗", + 1: "少云", + 2: "少云", + 3: "散云", + 4: "散云", + 5: "多云", + 6: "多云", + 7: "阴天", + 8: "阴天", + } + cloud_desc = cloud_desc_map.get(mgc_cover, "") + + # Final fallback: If we have ANY actual observation but no cloud info, it's usually clear. + if not cloud_desc: + if mc.get("temp") is not None or (mgm and mgm.get("current", {}).get("temp") is not None): + # If weather phenomenon exists (e.g. rain), we'll let app.js handle wx_desc priority. + # Otherwise, clear skies. + if not mc.get("wx_desc"): + cloud_desc = "晴朗" + + # ── 14. MGM data (Ankara-specific) ── + mgm_data = {} + if mgm: + mgc = mgm.get("current", {}) + mgm_time_str = mgc.get("time", "") + # MGM time is usually "2026-03-04T10:40:00.000Z" (UTC) + if mgm_time_str and "T" in mgm_time_str: + try: + # Handle ISO format with Z or +00:00 + ts = mgm_time_str.replace("Z", "+00:00") + if "+" in ts: + base, offset_part = ts.split("+", 1) + if "." in base: + base = base.split(".")[0] + ts = base + "+" + offset_part + dt = datetime.fromisoformat(ts) + local_dt = dt.astimezone(timezone(timedelta(seconds=utc_offset or 0))) + mgm_time_str = local_dt.strftime("%H:%M") + except Exception as e: + logger.debug(f"MGM time conversion failed: {e}") + pass + + mgm_data = { + "temp": _sf(mgc.get("temp")), + "time": mgm_time_str, + "feels_like": _sf(mgc.get("feels_like")), + "humidity": _sf(mgc.get("humidity")), + "wind_dir": _sf(mgc.get("wind_dir")), + "wind_speed_ms": _sf(mgc.get("wind_speed_ms")), + "pressure": _sf(mgc.get("pressure")), + "cloud_cover": mgc.get("cloud_cover"), + "rain_24h": _sf(mgc.get("rain_24h")), + "today_high": _sf(mgm.get("today_high")), + "today_low": _sf(mgm.get("today_low")), + "hourly": [], + } + + mgm_hourly = mgm.get("hourly", []) + for h in mgm_hourly: + dt_str = h.get("time") + val = _sf(h.get("temp")) + if dt_str and "T" in dt_str and val is not None: + try: + dt = datetime.fromisoformat(dt_str.replace("Z", "+00:00")) + local_dt = dt.astimezone(timezone(timedelta(seconds=utc_offset))) + mgm_data["hourly"].append({ + "time": local_dt.strftime("%Y-%m-%dT%H:%M"), + "temp": val + }) + except Exception: + pass + + + # ── 15. Extended Multi-Model Daily ── + multi_model_daily = {} + mm_daily_raw = mm.get("daily_forecasts", {}) + for i, d_str in enumerate(dates): + if i == 0: + day_m = current_forecasts.copy() + d_val, d_winfo = deb_val, deb_weights + else: + day_m = mm_daily_raw.get(d_str, {}).copy() + if i < len(maxtemps) and maxtemps[i] is not None: + day_m["Open-Meteo"] = _sf(maxtemps[i]) + + # Add MGM per-day forecast + mgm_daily = mgm.get("daily_forecasts", {}) + if d_str in mgm_daily: + day_m["MGM"] = _sf(mgm_daily[d_str]) + + day_m = { + m: v for m, v in day_m.items() if not _is_excluded_model_name(m) + } + + d_val, d_winfo = None, "" + d_probs = [] + if day_m: + try: + blended, winfo = calculate_dynamic_weights(city, day_m) + if blended is not None: + d_val = blended + d_winfo = winfo + + # Calculate future probability based on model divergence + m_vals = [v for v in day_m.values() if v is not None] + if len(m_vals) > 1: + # Use spread as a proxy for sigma. + # sigma = (max-min)/2 with a floor of 0.6 + d_sigma = max(0.6, (max(m_vals) - min(m_vals)) / 2.0) + else: + d_sigma = 1.0 + + prob_obj = calculate_prob_distribution(d_val, d_sigma, None, sym) + d_probs = prob_obj.get("probabilities", []) + except Exception: + pass + + if day_m: + multi_model_daily[d_str] = { + "models": day_m, + "deb": {"prediction": d_val, "weights_info": d_winfo}, + "probabilities": d_probs if i > 0 else probabilities # Use today's real prob for today + } + + # ── Assemble result ── + result = { + "name": city, + "display_name": city.title(), + "lat": lat, + "lon": lon, + "temp_symbol": sym, + "local_time": local_time_str, + "local_date": local_date_str, + "risk": { + "level": risk.get("risk_level", "low"), + "emoji": risk.get("risk_emoji", "🟢"), + "airport": risk.get("airport_name", ""), + "icao": risk.get("icao", ""), + "distance_km": risk.get("distance_km", 0), + "warning": risk.get("warning", ""), + }, + "current": { + "temp": cur_temp, + "max_so_far": max_so_far, + "max_temp_time": max_temp_time, + "wu_settlement": wu_settle, + "settlement_source": settlement_source, + "settlement_source_label": settlement_source_label, + "obs_time": obs_time_str, + "obs_age_min": metar_age_min, + "report_time": metar.get("report_time") if metar else None, + "receipt_time": metar.get("receipt_time") if metar else None, + "obs_time_epoch": metar.get("obs_time_epoch") if metar else None, + "wind_speed_kt": _sf(primary_current.get("wind_speed_kt")), + "wind_dir": _sf(primary_current.get("wind_dir")), + "humidity": _sf(primary_current.get("humidity")), + "cloud_desc": cloud_desc, + "clouds_raw": [ + {"cover": c.get("cover"), "base": c.get("base")} for c in clouds + ], + "visibility_mi": _sf(primary_current.get("visibility_mi")), + "wx_desc": primary_current.get("wx_desc"), + "raw_metar": primary_current.get("raw_metar"), + }, + "mgm": mgm_data, + "mgm_nearby": raw.get("mgm_nearby", []), + "forecast": { + "today_high": om_today, + "daily": forecast_daily, + "sunrise": sunrise, + "sunset": sunset, + "sunshine_hours": sunshine_h, + }, + "source_forecasts": { + "weather_gov": raw.get("nws") or {}, + }, + "multi_model": {k: v for k, v in current_forecasts.items() if v is not None}, + "multi_model_daily": multi_model_daily, + "deb": {"prediction": deb_val, "weights_info": deb_weights}, + "ensemble": ens_data, + "probabilities": { + "mu": round(mu, 1) if mu is not None else None, + "distribution": probabilities, + "engine": probability_engine, + "calibration_mode": probability_calibration_mode, + "calibration_version": probability_calibration_version, + "raw_mu": probability_raw_mu, + "raw_sigma": probability_raw_sigma, + "calibrated_mu": probability_calibrated_mu, + "calibrated_sigma": probability_calibrated_sigma, + "shadow_distribution": shadow_probabilities, + }, + "trend": trend_info, + "peak": { + "hours": peak_hours, + "first_h": first_peak_h, + "last_h": last_peak_h, + "status": peak_status, + }, + "hourly": today_hourly, + "hourly_next_48h": next_48h_hourly, + "metar_today_obs": metar_today_obs_payload, + "metar_recent_obs": metar_recent_obs_payload, + "settlement_today_obs": settlement_today_obs, + "ai_analysis": ai_text, + "updated_at": datetime.now(timezone.utc).isoformat(), + } + + _cache[city] = {"t": _time.time(), "d": result} + return result + + +def _normalize_city_or_404(name: str) -> str: + city = name.lower().strip().replace("-", " ") + city = ALIASES.get(city, city) + if city not in CITIES: + raise HTTPException(404, detail=f"Unknown city: {city}") + return city + + +def _build_city_summary_payload(data: Dict[str, Any]) -> Dict[str, Any]: + return { + "name": data.get("name"), + "display_name": data.get("display_name"), + "icao": data.get("risk", {}).get("icao"), + "local_time": data.get("local_time"), + "temp_symbol": data.get("temp_symbol"), + "current": { + "temp": data.get("current", {}).get("temp"), + "obs_time": data.get("current", {}).get("obs_time"), + "settlement_source": data.get("current", {}).get("settlement_source"), + "settlement_source_label": data.get("current", {}).get("settlement_source_label"), + }, + "deb": {"prediction": data.get("deb", {}).get("prediction")}, + "risk": { + "level": data.get("risk", {}).get("level"), + "warning": data.get("risk", {}).get("warning"), + }, + "updated_at": data.get("updated_at"), + } + + +def _build_city_detail_payload( + data: Dict[str, Any], + market_slug: Optional[str] = None, + target_date: Optional[str] = None, +) -> Dict[str, Any]: + city = str(data.get("name") or "").strip().lower() + local_date = str(data.get("local_date") or "").strip() + requested_date = str(target_date or "").strip() + selected_date = requested_date or local_date + + multi_model_daily = data.get("multi_model_daily") or {} + selected_daily = ( + multi_model_daily.get(selected_date) + if isinstance(multi_model_daily, dict) + else None + ) + if not isinstance(selected_daily, dict): + selected_daily = {} + selected_date = local_date + + distribution = selected_daily.get("probabilities") + if not isinstance(distribution, list) or not distribution: + distribution = data.get("probabilities", {}).get("distribution", []) or [] + + model_map = selected_daily.get("models") or data.get("multi_model") or {} + if not isinstance(model_map, dict): + model_map = {} + + anchor_temp = None + anchor_model = None + for model_name, raw_value in model_map.items(): + value = _sf(raw_value) + if value is None: + continue + if anchor_temp is None or value > anchor_temp: + anchor_temp = value + anchor_model = str(model_name or "").strip() or None + + anchor_temp_c = anchor_temp + temp_symbol = str(data.get("temp_symbol") or "") + if anchor_temp_c is not None and "F" in temp_symbol.upper(): + anchor_temp_c = (anchor_temp_c - 32.0) * 5.0 / 9.0 + anchor_settlement = apply_city_settlement(city, anchor_temp_c) if anchor_temp_c is not None else None + + primary_bucket = None + if isinstance(distribution, list) and distribution: + if anchor_temp is None: + primary_bucket = distribution[0] + else: + ranked_buckets = [] + for idx, row in enumerate(distribution): + if not isinstance(row, dict): + continue + bucket_temp = _sf(row.get("value")) + bucket_prob = _sf(row.get("probability")) + if bucket_temp is None: + continue + prob_rank = bucket_prob if bucket_prob is not None else -1.0 + ranked_buckets.append((abs(bucket_temp - anchor_temp), -prob_rank, idx, row)) + if ranked_buckets: + ranked_buckets.sort(key=lambda x: (x[0], x[1], x[2])) + primary_bucket = ranked_buckets[0][3] + else: + primary_bucket = distribution[0] + + model_probability = None + if isinstance(primary_bucket, dict) and primary_bucket.get("probability") is not None: + try: + raw_probability = float(primary_bucket.get("probability")) + model_probability = raw_probability / 100.0 if raw_probability > 1.0 else raw_probability + except Exception: + model_probability = None + + fallback_sparkline = [ + p.get("probability", 0) + for p in distribution[:8] + if isinstance(p, dict) + ] + market_scan = _market_layer.build_market_scan( + city=data.get("name"), + target_date=selected_date or data.get("local_date"), + temperature_bucket=primary_bucket if isinstance(primary_bucket, dict) else None, + model_probability=model_probability, + fallback_sparkline=fallback_sparkline, + forced_market_slug=market_slug, + ) + if isinstance(market_scan, dict): + market_scan["anchor_model"] = anchor_model + market_scan["anchor_high"] = anchor_temp + market_scan["anchor_settlement"] = anchor_settlement + market_scan["open_meteo_settlement"] = anchor_settlement + return { + "city": data.get("name"), + "fetched_at": data.get("updated_at"), + "overview": { + "name": data.get("name"), + "display_name": data.get("display_name"), + "icao": data.get("risk", {}).get("icao"), + "airport": data.get("risk", {}).get("airport"), + "lat": data.get("lat"), + "lon": data.get("lon"), + "local_time": data.get("local_time"), + "local_date": data.get("local_date"), + "temp_symbol": data.get("temp_symbol"), + "current_temp": data.get("current", {}).get("temp"), + "settlement_source": data.get("current", {}).get("settlement_source"), + "settlement_source_label": data.get("current", {}).get("settlement_source_label"), + "deb_prediction": data.get("deb", {}).get("prediction"), + "risk_level": data.get("risk", {}).get("level"), + "risk_warning": data.get("risk", {}).get("warning"), + "updated_at": data.get("updated_at"), + }, + "official": { + "available": bool(data.get("current", {}).get("temp") is not None), + "metar": { + "observation_time": data.get("current", {}).get("obs_time"), + "obs_age_min": data.get("current", {}).get("obs_age_min"), + "report_time": data.get("current", {}).get("report_time"), + "receipt_time": data.get("current", {}).get("receipt_time"), + "raw_metar": data.get("current", {}).get("raw_metar"), + "current": data.get("current"), + }, + "weather_gov": {}, + "mgm": data.get("mgm") or {}, + "mgm_nearby": data.get("mgm_nearby") or [], + "nearby_source": "mgm" if data.get("name") == "ankara" else "metar_cluster", + }, + "timeseries": { + "metar_recent_obs": data.get("metar_recent_obs") or [], + "metar_today_obs": data.get("metar_today_obs") or [], + "settlement_today_obs": data.get("settlement_today_obs") or [], + "hourly": data.get("hourly") or {}, + "mgm_hourly": (data.get("mgm") or {}).get("hourly", []), + "forecast_daily": (data.get("forecast") or {}).get("daily", []), + }, + "models": { + k: v + for k, v in (data.get("multi_model") or {}).items() + if not _is_excluded_model_name(k) + }, + "probabilities": data.get("probabilities") or {"mu": None, "distribution": []}, + "market_scan": market_scan, + "risk": data.get("risk"), + "ai_analysis": data.get("ai_analysis") or "", + "errors": {}, + } + + +# ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── +# Routes +# ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── diff --git a/web/app.py b/web/app.py index 26992a8c..021da0dc 100644 --- a/web/app.py +++ b/web/app.py @@ -5,1463 +5,22 @@ FastAPI backend that reuses existing weather data collection and analysis module Serves a Leaflet-based interactive map frontend. """ -import sys import os -import math -import time as _time -from datetime import datetime, timezone, timedelta -from typing import Dict, Any, Optional +import sys -# Project root setup _file_dir = os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__)) _root = os.path.dirname(_file_dir) if _root not in sys.path: sys.path.insert(0, _root) -# Ensure current dir is also in path for local imports if any if _file_dir not in sys.path: sys.path.insert(0, _file_dir) -from fastapi import FastAPI, HTTPException, Request -from fastapi.middleware.cors import CORSMiddleware -from pydantic import BaseModel, Field -from loguru import logger +from web.core import app # noqa: E402 +from web.routes import router # noqa: E402 -from src.utils.config_loader import load_config -from src.data_collection.weather_sources import WeatherDataCollector -from src.data_collection.city_risk_profiles import CITY_RISK_PROFILES -from src.data_collection.polymarket_readonly import PolymarketReadOnlyLayer -from src.analysis.deb_algorithm import calculate_dynamic_weights, get_deb_accuracy -from src.analysis.settlement_rounding import wu_round, apply_city_settlement -from src.auth.supabase_entitlement import ( - SUPABASE_ENTITLEMENT, - extract_bearer_token, -) -from src.analysis.metar_narrator import describe_metar_report -from src.database.db_manager import DBManager -from src.payments import PAYMENT_CHECKOUT, PaymentCheckoutError +app.include_router(router) -# ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── -# Setup -# ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── -app = FastAPI(title="PolyWeather Map", version="1.0") -_cors_origins = os.getenv( - "WEB_CORS_ORIGINS", - "http://localhost:3000,http://127.0.0.1:3000,https://polyweather-pro.vercel.app", -) -app.add_middleware( - CORSMiddleware, - allow_origins=[o.strip() for o in _cors_origins.split(",") if o.strip()], - allow_credentials=True, - allow_methods=["*"], - allow_headers=["*"], -) - -_config = load_config() -_weather = WeatherDataCollector(_config) -_market_layer = PolymarketReadOnlyLayer() -_account_db = DBManager() - -from src.data_collection.city_registry import CITY_REGISTRY, ALIASES - -# ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── -# City Registry Transformation -# ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── -# Convert registry to the internal format expected by app logic -CITIES: Dict[str, Dict[str, Any]] = { - cid: { - "lat": info["lat"], - "lon": info["lon"], - "f": info["use_fahrenheit"], - "tz": info["tz_offset"], - "settlement_source": str(info.get("settlement_source") or "metar").strip().lower() or "metar", - } - for cid, info in CITY_REGISTRY.items() -} - -SETTLEMENT_SOURCE_LABELS: Dict[str, str] = { - "metar": "METAR", - "hko": "HKO", - "cwa": "CWA", - "mgm": "MGM", -} - -# ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── -# Cache (5-min TTL) -# ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── -_cache: Dict[str, Dict] = {} -CACHE_TTL = 300 -CACHE_TTL_ANKARA = 60 # Ankara measurement updates frequent, narrower cache - - -def _env_bool(name: str, default: bool = False) -> bool: - raw = os.getenv(name) - if raw is None: - return default - return raw.strip().lower() in {"1", "true", "yes", "on"} - - -_ENTITLEMENT_GUARD_ENABLED = _env_bool("POLYWEATHER_REQUIRE_ENTITLEMENT", False) -_ENTITLEMENT_HEADER = "x-polyweather-entitlement" -_ENTITLEMENT_TOKEN = (os.getenv("POLYWEATHER_BACKEND_ENTITLEMENT_TOKEN") or "").strip() -_FORWARDED_SUPABASE_USER_ID_HEADER = "x-polyweather-auth-user-id" -_FORWARDED_SUPABASE_EMAIL_HEADER = "x-polyweather-auth-email" -_SUPABASE_AUTH_REQUIRED = _env_bool( - "POLYWEATHER_AUTH_REQUIRED", - SUPABASE_ENTITLEMENT.enabled, -) - - -def _legacy_service_token_valid(request: Request) -> bool: - token = request.headers.get(_ENTITLEMENT_HEADER) - if not token: - token = extract_bearer_token(request.headers.get("authorization")) - return bool(_ENTITLEMENT_TOKEN and token == _ENTITLEMENT_TOKEN) - - -def _bind_optional_supabase_identity(request: Request) -> None: - if not SUPABASE_ENTITLEMENT.configured: - return - access_token = extract_bearer_token(request.headers.get("authorization")) - if not access_token: - return - identity = SUPABASE_ENTITLEMENT.get_identity(access_token) - if not identity: - return - request.state.auth_user_id = identity.user_id - request.state.auth_email = identity.email - request.state.auth_points = identity.points - - -def _resolve_auth_points(request: Request) -> int: - raw_points = getattr(request.state, "auth_points", 0) - try: - points = max(0, int(raw_points or 0)) - except Exception: - points = 0 - if points > 0: - return points - - user_id = str(getattr(request.state, "auth_user_id", "") or "").strip() - if not user_id: - return points - try: - db_points = _account_db.get_points_by_supabase_user_id(user_id) - if db_points > points: - request.state.auth_points = db_points - return db_points - except Exception as exc: - logger.warning(f"auth points fallback failed user_id={user_id}: {exc}") - return points - - -def _resolve_weekly_profile(request: Request) -> Dict[str, Any]: - user_id = str(getattr(request.state, "auth_user_id", "") or "").strip() - if not user_id: - return {"weekly_points": 0, "weekly_rank": None} - try: - profile = _account_db.get_weekly_profile_by_supabase_user_id(user_id) - return { - "weekly_points": int(profile.get("weekly_points") or 0), - "weekly_rank": profile.get("weekly_rank"), - } - except Exception as exc: - logger.warning(f"auth weekly profile fallback failed user_id={user_id}: {exc}") - return {"weekly_points": 0, "weekly_rank": None} - - -def _assert_entitlement(request: Request) -> None: - if SUPABASE_ENTITLEMENT.enabled: - if _legacy_service_token_valid(request): - return - if not _SUPABASE_AUTH_REQUIRED: - _bind_optional_supabase_identity(request) - return - if not SUPABASE_ENTITLEMENT.configured: - raise HTTPException( - status_code=503, - detail="Supabase auth is enabled but SUPABASE_URL / SUPABASE_ANON_KEY is not configured", - ) - - access_token = extract_bearer_token(request.headers.get("authorization")) - if not access_token: - raise HTTPException(status_code=401, detail="Unauthorized") - - identity = SUPABASE_ENTITLEMENT.get_identity(access_token) - if not identity: - raise HTTPException(status_code=401, detail="Unauthorized") - if not SUPABASE_ENTITLEMENT.has_active_subscription(identity.user_id): - raise HTTPException(status_code=403, detail="Subscription required") - - request.state.auth_user_id = identity.user_id - request.state.auth_email = identity.email - return - - if not _ENTITLEMENT_GUARD_ENABLED: - return - - if not _ENTITLEMENT_TOKEN: - raise HTTPException( - status_code=503, - detail="Entitlement guard is enabled but backend token is not configured", - ) - - if not _legacy_service_token_valid(request): - raise HTTPException(status_code=401, detail="Unauthorized") - - -def _require_supabase_identity(request: Request) -> Dict[str, str]: - if not SUPABASE_ENTITLEMENT.enabled: - raise HTTPException( - status_code=503, - detail="payment requires POLYWEATHER_AUTH_ENABLED=true", - ) - if not SUPABASE_ENTITLEMENT.configured: - raise HTTPException( - status_code=503, - detail="payment requires SUPABASE_URL and SUPABASE_ANON_KEY", - ) - - # Reuse identity already bound in _assert_entitlement/_bind_optional_supabase_identity - # to avoid requiring a second successful token parse in the same request flow. - state_user_id = str(getattr(request.state, "auth_user_id", "") or "").strip() - if state_user_id: - state_email = str(getattr(request.state, "auth_email", "") or "").strip() - return {"user_id": state_user_id, "email": state_email} - - token = extract_bearer_token(request.headers.get("authorization")) - if token: - identity = SUPABASE_ENTITLEMENT.get_identity(token) - if identity: - return {"user_id": identity.user_id, "email": identity.email} - - # Trusted fallback for server-to-server proxy calls: - # only when entitlement token is valid do we accept forwarded identity headers. - legacy_ok = _legacy_service_token_valid(request) - if legacy_ok: - forwarded_user_id = str( - request.headers.get(_FORWARDED_SUPABASE_USER_ID_HEADER) or "" - ).strip() - if forwarded_user_id: - forwarded_email = str( - request.headers.get(_FORWARDED_SUPABASE_EMAIL_HEADER) or "" - ).strip() - return {"user_id": forwarded_user_id, "email": forwarded_email} - - logger.warning( - "payment auth identity missing state_user={} auth_bearer={} legacy_ok={} forwarded_user={}", - bool(state_user_id), - bool(token), - bool(legacy_ok), - bool( - str(request.headers.get(_FORWARDED_SUPABASE_USER_ID_HEADER) or "").strip() - ), - ) - raise HTTPException(status_code=401, detail="Unauthorized") - - -class WalletChallengeRequest(BaseModel): - address: str = Field(..., min_length=8) - - -class WalletVerifyRequest(BaseModel): - address: str = Field(..., min_length=8) - nonce: str = Field(..., min_length=6) - signature: str = Field(..., min_length=20) - - -class WalletUnbindRequest(BaseModel): - address: str = Field(..., min_length=8) - - -class CreatePaymentIntentRequest(BaseModel): - plan_code: str = Field(default="pro_monthly", min_length=2) - payment_mode: str = Field(default="strict") - allowed_wallet: Optional[str] = None - token_address: Optional[str] = None - use_points: bool = False - points_to_consume: Optional[int] = None - metadata: Dict[str, Any] = Field(default_factory=dict) - - -class SubmitPaymentTxRequest(BaseModel): - tx_hash: str = Field(..., min_length=10) - from_address: str = Field(..., min_length=8) - - -class ConfirmPaymentTxRequest(BaseModel): - tx_hash: Optional[str] = None - - -def _sf(v) -> Optional[float]: - """Safe float conversion.""" - if v is None: - return None - try: - return float(v) - except Exception: - return None - - -def _is_excluded_model_name(model_name: str) -> bool: - normalized = ( - str(model_name or "") - .strip() - .lower() - .replace(" ", "") - .replace("_", "") - .replace("-", "") - ) - return "meteoblue" in normalized - - -# ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── -# Core Analysis (replicates bot_listener logic → JSON) -# ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── -def _analyze(city: str, force_refresh: bool = False) -> Dict[str, Any]: - """Fetch, analyse, and return structured weather data for one city.""" - # Check cache - ttl = CACHE_TTL_ANKARA if city.lower() == "ankara" else CACHE_TTL - - if not force_refresh: - cached = _cache.get(city) - if cached and _time.time() - cached["t"] < ttl: - return cached["d"] - - info = CITIES[city] - lat, lon, is_f = info["lat"], info["lon"], info["f"] - sym = "°F" if is_f else "°C" - settlement_source = str(info.get("settlement_source") or "metar").strip().lower() or "metar" - settlement_source_label = SETTLEMENT_SOURCE_LABELS.get( - settlement_source, - settlement_source.upper(), - ) - - # ── 1. Fetch raw data ── - raw = _weather.fetch_all_sources( - city, - lat=lat, - lon=lon, - force_refresh=force_refresh, - ) - om = raw.get("open-meteo", {}) - metar = raw.get("metar", {}) - mgm = raw.get("mgm") or {} - settlement_current = raw.get("settlement_current") or {} - ens_raw = raw.get("ensemble", {}) - mm = raw.get("multi_model", {}) - if not isinstance(om, dict): - om = {} - if not isinstance(metar, dict): - metar = {} - if not isinstance(mgm, dict): - mgm = {} - if not isinstance(settlement_current, dict): - settlement_current = {} - if not isinstance(ens_raw, dict): - ens_raw = {} - if not isinstance(mm, dict): - mm = {} - risk = CITY_RISK_PROFILES.get(city, {}) - - # ── 2. Current conditions (city-specific settlement source first, then METAR/MGM fallback) ── - mc = metar.get("current", {}) if metar else {} - mg_cur = mgm.get("current", {}) if mgm else {} - sc_cur = settlement_current.get("current", {}) if settlement_current else {} - use_settlement_current = settlement_source in {"hko", "cwa"} and bool(sc_cur) - primary_current = sc_cur if use_settlement_current else mc - city_lower = city.lower() - - cur_temp = _sf(primary_current.get("temp")) - if cur_temp is None: - cur_temp = _sf(mc.get("temp")) - if cur_temp is None: - cur_temp = _sf(mg_cur.get("temp")) - - max_so_far = _sf(primary_current.get("max_temp_so_far")) - if max_so_far is None: - max_so_far = _sf(mc.get("max_temp_so_far")) - if max_so_far is None: - max_so_far = _sf(mg_cur.get("mgm_max_temp")) - - max_temp_time = primary_current.get("max_temp_time") - if not max_temp_time and not use_settlement_current: - max_temp_time = mc.get("max_temp_time") - if not max_temp_time: - max_temp_time = mg_cur.get("time", "") - if " " in max_temp_time: - max_temp_time = max_temp_time.split(" ")[1][:5] - if max_temp_time == "": - max_temp_time = None - - wu_settle = apply_city_settlement(city.lower(), max_so_far) if max_so_far is not None else None - - # Observation time → local - obs_time_str = "" - metar_age_min = None - obs_t = "" - if use_settlement_current: - obs_t = str(settlement_current.get("observation_time") or "").strip() - if not obs_t: - obs_t = metar.get("observation_time", "") if metar else "" - # 优先从 API 获取偏移；若缺失则尝试 NWS 动态偏移；最后回退静态配置 - utc_offset = om.get("utc_offset") - if utc_offset is None: - try: - nws_periods = (raw.get("nws", {}) or {}).get("forecast_periods", []) or [] - if nws_periods: - first_start = nws_periods[0].get("start_time") - if first_start: - maybe_dt = datetime.fromisoformat(str(first_start)) - if maybe_dt.utcoffset() is not None: - utc_offset = int(maybe_dt.utcoffset().total_seconds()) - except Exception: - utc_offset = None - if utc_offset is None: - utc_offset = info.get("tz", 0) - if obs_t and "T" in obs_t: - try: - dt = datetime.fromisoformat(str(obs_t).replace("Z", "+00:00")) - if dt.tzinfo is None: - dt = dt.replace(tzinfo=timezone.utc) - local_dt = dt.astimezone(timezone(timedelta(seconds=utc_offset))) - obs_time_str = local_dt.strftime("%H:%M") - metar_age_min = int( - (datetime.now(timezone.utc) - dt.astimezone(timezone.utc)).total_seconds() / 60 - ) - except Exception: - obs_time_str = str(obs_t)[:16] - - settlement_today_obs = [] - if use_settlement_current: - if obs_time_str and cur_temp is not None: - settlement_today_obs.append({"time": obs_time_str, "temp": cur_temp}) - if ( - max_temp_time - and max_so_far is not None - and str(max_temp_time) != str(obs_time_str) - ): - settlement_today_obs.append({"time": str(max_temp_time), "temp": max_so_far}) - - metar_today_obs_payload = ( - [] - if use_settlement_current - else [ - {"time": t, "temp": v} - for t, v in (metar.get("today_obs", []) if metar else []) - ] - ) - metar_recent_obs_payload = ( - [] if use_settlement_current else (metar.get("recent_obs", []) if metar else []) - ) - - # ── 3. Local time parsing ── - local_time_full = om.get("current", {}).get("local_time", "") - local_hour, local_minute = 12, 0 - now_utc = datetime.now(timezone.utc) - local_now = now_utc + timedelta(seconds=utc_offset) - local_date_str = local_now.strftime("%Y-%m-%d") - - try: - if local_time_full: - local_date_str = local_time_full.split(" ")[0] - tp = local_time_full.split(" ")[1].split(":") - local_hour = int(tp[0]) - local_minute = int(tp[1]) if len(tp) > 1 else 0 - else: - local_hour = local_now.hour - local_minute = local_now.minute - except Exception: - local_hour = local_now.hour - local_minute = local_now.minute - local_time_str = f"{local_hour:02d}:{local_minute:02d}" - local_hour_frac = local_hour + local_minute / 60 - - # ── 4. Daily forecast ── - daily = om.get("daily", {}) - dates = daily.get("time", [])[:5] - maxtemps = daily.get("temperature_2m_max", [])[:5] - sunrises = daily.get("sunrise", []) - sunsets = daily.get("sunset", []) - sunshine = daily.get("sunshine_duration", []) - om_today = _sf(maxtemps[0]) if maxtemps else None - - forecast_daily = [{"date": d, "max_temp": t} for d, t in zip(dates, maxtemps)] - if om_today is None: - nws_high = _sf(raw.get("nws", {}).get("today_high")) - mgm_high = _sf(mgm.get("today_high")) if mgm else None - fallback_high = ( - nws_high - if nws_high is not None - else mgm_high - if mgm_high is not None - else max_so_far - if max_so_far is not None - else cur_temp - ) - if fallback_high is not None: - om_today = float(fallback_high) - if not forecast_daily: - forecast_daily = [{"date": local_date_str, "max_temp": om_today}] - sunrise = ( - sunrises[0].split("T")[1][:5] - if sunrises and "T" in str(sunrises[0]) - else "" - ) - sunset = ( - sunsets[0].split("T")[1][:5] - if sunsets and "T" in str(sunsets[0]) - else "" - ) - sunshine_h = round(sunshine[0] / 3600, 1) if sunshine else 0 - - # ── 5. Multi-model forecasts ── - current_forecasts: Dict[str, float] = {} - if om_today is not None: - current_forecasts["Open-Meteo"] = om_today - for m, v in mm.get("forecasts", {}).items(): - if v is not None and not _is_excluded_model_name(m): - current_forecasts[m] = _sf(v) - nws_high = _sf(raw.get("nws", {}).get("today_high")) - if nws_high is not None: - current_forecasts["NWS"] = nws_high - mgm_high = _sf(mgm.get("today_high")) if mgm else None - if mgm_high is not None: - current_forecasts["MGM"] = mgm_high - - # ── 6. DEB fusion ── - deb_val, deb_weights = None, "" - if current_forecasts: - blended, winfo = calculate_dynamic_weights(city, current_forecasts) - if blended is not None: - deb_val = blended - deb_weights = winfo - - # ── 7. Ensemble stats ── - ens_data = { - "median": _sf(ens_raw.get("median")), - "p10": _sf(ens_raw.get("p10")), - "p90": _sf(ens_raw.get("p90")), - } - - # ── 8. METAR trend ── - recent_temps = metar.get("recent_temps", []) if metar else [] - trend_info = { - "direction": "unknown", - "recent": [{"time": t, "temp": v} for t, v in recent_temps[:6]], - "is_cooling": False, - "is_dead_market": False, - } - if len(recent_temps) >= 2: - t_only = [t for _, t in recent_temps] - latest, prev = t_only[0], t_only[1] - diff = latest - prev - if len(t_only) >= 3: - n = min(3, len(t_only)) - all_same = all(t == latest for t in t_only[:n]) - all_rising = all(t_only[i] >= t_only[i + 1] for i in range(n - 1)) - all_falling = all(t_only[i] <= t_only[i + 1] for i in range(n - 1)) - if all_same: - trend_info["direction"] = "stagnant" - elif all_rising and diff > 0: - trend_info["direction"] = "rising" - elif all_falling and diff < 0: - trend_info["direction"] = "falling" - else: - trend_info["direction"] = "mixed" - elif diff > 0: - trend_info["direction"] = "rising" - elif diff < 0: - trend_info["direction"] = "falling" - else: - trend_info["direction"] = "stagnant" - trend_info["is_cooling"] = trend_info["direction"] in ("falling", "stagnant") - - # ── 9. Peak hour detection ── - hourly = om.get("hourly", {}) - h_times = hourly.get("time", []) - h_temps = hourly.get("temperature_2m", []) - h_rad = hourly.get("shortwave_radiation", []) - h_dew = hourly.get("dew_point_2m", []) - h_pressure = hourly.get("pressure_msl", []) - h_wspd = hourly.get("wind_speed_10m", []) - h_wdir = hourly.get("wind_direction_10m", []) - h_precip_prob = hourly.get("precipitation_probability", []) - h_cloud_cover = hourly.get("cloud_cover", []) - if (not h_times or not h_temps) and metar: - metar_today_obs = metar.get("today_obs", []) or [] - parsed_obs = [] - for item in metar_today_obs: - try: - t_str, t_val = item - if t_str is None or t_val is None: - continue - hh, minute_part = str(t_str).split(":") - parsed_obs.append((int(hh), int(minute_part), float(t_val))) - except Exception: - continue - if parsed_obs: - parsed_obs.sort(key=lambda x: (x[0], x[1])) - h_times = [f"{local_date_str}T{hh:02d}:{mm:02d}" for hh, mm, _ in parsed_obs] - h_temps = [v for _, _, v in parsed_obs] - h_rad = [0 for _ in parsed_obs] - h_dew = [None for _ in parsed_obs] - h_pressure = [None for _ in parsed_obs] - h_wspd = [None for _ in parsed_obs] - h_wdir = [None for _ in parsed_obs] - h_precip_prob = [None for _ in parsed_obs] - h_cloud_cover = [None for _ in parsed_obs] - - peak_hours = [] - if h_times and h_temps and om_today is not None: - for ts, tmp in zip(h_times, h_temps): - if ts.startswith(local_date_str) and abs(tmp - om_today) <= 0.2: - hr = int(ts.split("T")[1][:2]) - if 8 <= hr <= 19: - peak_hours.append(ts.split("T")[1][:5]) - - first_peak_h = int(peak_hours[0].split(":")[0]) if peak_hours else 13 - last_peak_h = int(peak_hours[-1].split(":")[0]) if peak_hours else 15 - - if local_hour_frac > last_peak_h: - peak_status = "past" - elif first_peak_h <= local_hour_frac <= last_peak_h: - peak_status = "in_window" - else: - peak_status = "before" - - # ── 10. Shared analysis (probability, trend, AI) via trend_engine ── - # This single call replaces the duplicate probability engine, dead market - # detection, forecast bust grading, and AI context building. - from src.analysis.trend_engine import analyze_weather_trend as _trend_analyze, calculate_prob_distribution - - probabilities = [] - mu = None - ai_text = "" - try: - _, _ai_context, sd = _trend_analyze(raw, sym, city) - - # Use structured data from shared engine - mu = sd.get("mu") - probabilities = sd.get("probabilities", []) - trend_info["is_dead_market"] = sd.get("trend_info", {}).get("is_dead_market", False) - trend_info["direction"] = sd.get("trend_info", {}).get("direction", trend_info.get("direction", "unknown")) - trend_info["is_cooling"] = sd.get("trend_info", {}).get("is_cooling", False) - peak_status = sd.get("peak_status", peak_status) - - # Use shared DEB if not already set - if deb_val is None and sd.get("deb_prediction") is not None: - deb_val = sd["deb_prediction"] - deb_weights = sd.get("deb_weights", "") - - except Exception as e: - logger.warning(f"Structured analysis skipped for {city}: {e}") - - ai_text = describe_metar_report( - raw_metar=str(primary_current.get("raw_metar") or mc.get("raw_metar") or ""), - temp_symbol=sym, - fallback={ - "icao": metar.get("icao"), - "station_name": metar.get("station_name"), - "temp": cur_temp, - "wind_speed_kt": _sf(primary_current.get("wind_speed_kt")), - "wind_dir": _sf(primary_current.get("wind_dir")), - "altimeter": _sf(primary_current.get("altimeter")), - "wx_desc": primary_current.get("wx_desc"), - "clouds": primary_current.get("clouds", []) or mc.get("clouds", []), - }, - ) - - # ── 12. Hourly data (today only, for chart) ── - today_hourly: Dict[str, list] = {"times": [], "temps": [], "radiation": []} - for i, ts in enumerate(h_times): - if ts.startswith(local_date_str): - today_hourly["times"].append(ts.split("T")[1][:5]) - today_hourly["temps"].append(h_temps[i] if i < len(h_temps) else None) - today_hourly["radiation"].append(h_rad[i] if i < len(h_rad) else None) - - # ── 12b. Next 48h hourly block for future-date analysis modal ── - next_48h_hourly = { - "times": [], - "temps": [], - "radiation": [], - "dew_point": [], - "pressure_msl": [], - "wind_speed_10m": [], - "wind_direction_10m": [], - "precipitation_probability": [], - "cloud_cover": [], - } - try: - local_anchor = datetime.strptime( - f"{local_date_str} {local_time_str}", "%Y-%m-%d %H:%M" - ) - except Exception: - local_anchor = None - - if local_anchor is not None: - horizon = local_anchor + timedelta(hours=48) - for i, ts in enumerate(h_times): - try: - ts_dt = datetime.fromisoformat(ts) - except Exception: - continue - if ts_dt < local_anchor or ts_dt > horizon: - continue - next_48h_hourly["times"].append(ts) - next_48h_hourly["temps"].append(h_temps[i] if i < len(h_temps) else None) - next_48h_hourly["radiation"].append(h_rad[i] if i < len(h_rad) else None) - next_48h_hourly["dew_point"].append(h_dew[i] if i < len(h_dew) else None) - next_48h_hourly["pressure_msl"].append( - h_pressure[i] if i < len(h_pressure) else None - ) - next_48h_hourly["wind_speed_10m"].append( - h_wspd[i] if i < len(h_wspd) else None - ) - next_48h_hourly["wind_direction_10m"].append( - h_wdir[i] if i < len(h_wdir) else None - ) - next_48h_hourly["precipitation_probability"].append( - h_precip_prob[i] if i < len(h_precip_prob) else None - ) - next_48h_hourly["cloud_cover"].append( - h_cloud_cover[i] if i < len(h_cloud_cover) else None - ) - - # ── 13. Cloud description (METAR primary, MGM fallback) ── - clouds = mc.get("clouds", []) - cloud_desc = "" - if clouds: - c_map = { - "BKN": "多云", - "OVC": "阴天", - "FEW": "少云", - "SCT": "散云", - "SKC": "晴", - "CLR": "晴", - } - main = clouds[-1] - cloud_desc = c_map.get(main.get("cover"), main.get("cover", "")) - - if not cloud_desc and mgm: - mgc_cover = mgm.get("current", {}).get("cloud_cover") - if mgc_cover is not None: - cloud_desc_map = { - 0: "晴朗", - 1: "少云", - 2: "少云", - 3: "散云", - 4: "散云", - 5: "多云", - 6: "多云", - 7: "阴天", - 8: "阴天", - } - cloud_desc = cloud_desc_map.get(mgc_cover, "") - - # Final fallback: If we have ANY actual observation but no cloud info, it's usually clear. - if not cloud_desc: - if mc.get("temp") is not None or (mgm and mgm.get("current", {}).get("temp") is not None): - # If weather phenomenon exists (e.g. rain), we'll let app.js handle wx_desc priority. - # Otherwise, clear skies. - if not mc.get("wx_desc"): - cloud_desc = "晴朗" - - # ── 14. MGM data (Ankara-specific) ── - mgm_data = {} - if mgm: - mgc = mgm.get("current", {}) - mgm_time_str = mgc.get("time", "") - # MGM time is usually "2026-03-04T10:40:00.000Z" (UTC) - if mgm_time_str and "T" in mgm_time_str: - try: - # Handle ISO format with Z or +00:00 - ts = mgm_time_str.replace("Z", "+00:00") - if "+" in ts: - base, offset_part = ts.split("+", 1) - if "." in base: - base = base.split(".")[0] - ts = base + "+" + offset_part - dt = datetime.fromisoformat(ts) - local_dt = dt.astimezone(timezone(timedelta(seconds=utc_offset or 0))) - mgm_time_str = local_dt.strftime("%H:%M") - except Exception as e: - logger.debug(f"MGM time conversion failed: {e}") - pass - - mgm_data = { - "temp": _sf(mgc.get("temp")), - "time": mgm_time_str, - "feels_like": _sf(mgc.get("feels_like")), - "humidity": _sf(mgc.get("humidity")), - "wind_dir": _sf(mgc.get("wind_dir")), - "wind_speed_ms": _sf(mgc.get("wind_speed_ms")), - "pressure": _sf(mgc.get("pressure")), - "cloud_cover": mgc.get("cloud_cover"), - "rain_24h": _sf(mgc.get("rain_24h")), - "today_high": _sf(mgm.get("today_high")), - "today_low": _sf(mgm.get("today_low")), - "hourly": [], - } - - mgm_hourly = mgm.get("hourly", []) - for h in mgm_hourly: - dt_str = h.get("time") - val = _sf(h.get("temp")) - if dt_str and "T" in dt_str and val is not None: - try: - dt = datetime.fromisoformat(dt_str.replace("Z", "+00:00")) - local_dt = dt.astimezone(timezone(timedelta(seconds=utc_offset))) - mgm_data["hourly"].append({ - "time": local_dt.strftime("%Y-%m-%dT%H:%M"), - "temp": val - }) - except Exception: - pass - - - # ── 15. Extended Multi-Model Daily ── - multi_model_daily = {} - mm_daily_raw = mm.get("daily_forecasts", {}) - for i, d_str in enumerate(dates): - if i == 0: - day_m = current_forecasts.copy() - d_val, d_winfo = deb_val, deb_weights - else: - day_m = mm_daily_raw.get(d_str, {}).copy() - if i < len(maxtemps) and maxtemps[i] is not None: - day_m["Open-Meteo"] = _sf(maxtemps[i]) - - # Add MGM per-day forecast - mgm_daily = mgm.get("daily_forecasts", {}) - if d_str in mgm_daily: - day_m["MGM"] = _sf(mgm_daily[d_str]) - - day_m = { - m: v for m, v in day_m.items() if not _is_excluded_model_name(m) - } - - d_val, d_winfo = None, "" - d_probs = [] - if day_m: - try: - blended, winfo = calculate_dynamic_weights(city, day_m) - if blended is not None: - d_val = blended - d_winfo = winfo - - # Calculate future probability based on model divergence - m_vals = [v for v in day_m.values() if v is not None] - if len(m_vals) > 1: - # Use spread as a proxy for sigma. - # sigma = (max-min)/2 with a floor of 0.6 - d_sigma = max(0.6, (max(m_vals) - min(m_vals)) / 2.0) - else: - d_sigma = 1.0 - - prob_obj = calculate_prob_distribution(d_val, d_sigma, None, sym) - d_probs = prob_obj.get("probabilities", []) - except Exception: - pass - - if day_m: - multi_model_daily[d_str] = { - "models": day_m, - "deb": {"prediction": d_val, "weights_info": d_winfo}, - "probabilities": d_probs if i > 0 else probabilities # Use today's real prob for today - } - - # ── Assemble result ── - result = { - "name": city, - "display_name": city.title(), - "lat": lat, - "lon": lon, - "temp_symbol": sym, - "local_time": local_time_str, - "local_date": local_date_str, - "risk": { - "level": risk.get("risk_level", "low"), - "emoji": risk.get("risk_emoji", "🟢"), - "airport": risk.get("airport_name", ""), - "icao": risk.get("icao", ""), - "distance_km": risk.get("distance_km", 0), - "warning": risk.get("warning", ""), - }, - "current": { - "temp": cur_temp, - "max_so_far": max_so_far, - "max_temp_time": max_temp_time, - "wu_settlement": wu_settle, - "settlement_source": settlement_source, - "settlement_source_label": settlement_source_label, - "obs_time": obs_time_str, - "obs_age_min": metar_age_min, - "report_time": metar.get("report_time") if metar else None, - "receipt_time": metar.get("receipt_time") if metar else None, - "obs_time_epoch": metar.get("obs_time_epoch") if metar else None, - "wind_speed_kt": _sf(primary_current.get("wind_speed_kt")), - "wind_dir": _sf(primary_current.get("wind_dir")), - "humidity": _sf(primary_current.get("humidity")), - "cloud_desc": cloud_desc, - "clouds_raw": [ - {"cover": c.get("cover"), "base": c.get("base")} for c in clouds - ], - "visibility_mi": _sf(primary_current.get("visibility_mi")), - "wx_desc": primary_current.get("wx_desc"), - "raw_metar": primary_current.get("raw_metar"), - }, - "mgm": mgm_data, - "mgm_nearby": raw.get("mgm_nearby", []), - "forecast": { - "today_high": om_today, - "daily": forecast_daily, - "sunrise": sunrise, - "sunset": sunset, - "sunshine_hours": sunshine_h, - }, - "source_forecasts": { - "weather_gov": raw.get("nws") or {}, - }, - "multi_model": {k: v for k, v in current_forecasts.items() if v is not None}, - "multi_model_daily": multi_model_daily, - "deb": {"prediction": deb_val, "weights_info": deb_weights}, - "ensemble": ens_data, - "probabilities": { - "mu": round(mu, 1) if mu else None, - "distribution": probabilities, - }, - "trend": trend_info, - "peak": { - "hours": peak_hours, - "first_h": first_peak_h, - "last_h": last_peak_h, - "status": peak_status, - }, - "hourly": today_hourly, - "hourly_next_48h": next_48h_hourly, - "metar_today_obs": metar_today_obs_payload, - "metar_recent_obs": metar_recent_obs_payload, - "settlement_today_obs": settlement_today_obs, - "ai_analysis": ai_text, - "updated_at": datetime.now(timezone.utc).isoformat(), - } - - _cache[city] = {"t": _time.time(), "d": result} - return result - - -# ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── -# Routes -# ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── -@app.get("/api/cities") -async def list_cities(request: Request): - """Return all supported cities with coordinates and risk level.""" - _assert_entitlement(request) - try: - out = [] - for name, info in CITIES.items(): - risk = CITY_RISK_PROFILES.get(name, {}) - out.append( - { - "name": name, - "display_name": name.title(), - "lat": info["lat"], - "lon": info["lon"], - "risk_level": risk.get("risk_level", "low"), - "risk_emoji": risk.get("risk_emoji", "🟢"), - "airport": risk.get("airport_name", ""), - "icao": risk.get("icao", ""), - "temp_unit": "fahrenheit" if info["f"] else "celsius", - "is_major": CITY_REGISTRY.get(name, {}).get("is_major", True), - "settlement_source": info.get("settlement_source", "metar"), - "settlement_source_label": SETTLEMENT_SOURCE_LABELS.get( - str(info.get("settlement_source") or "metar").strip().lower() or "metar", - str(info.get("settlement_source") or "metar").strip().upper() or "METAR", - ), - } - ) - return {"cities": out} - except Exception as e: - logger.error(f"❌ Error in list_cities: {str(e)}") - import traceback - logger.error(traceback.format_exc()) - raise HTTPException(status_code=500, detail=str(e)) - - -@app.get("/api/city/{name}") -async def city_detail(request: Request, name: str, force_refresh: bool = False): - """Return full weather analysis for a single city.""" - _assert_entitlement(request) - name = name.lower().strip().replace("-", " ") - name = ALIASES.get(name, name) - if name not in CITIES: - raise HTTPException(404, detail=f"Unknown city: {name}") - return _analyze(name, force_refresh=force_refresh) - - -def _normalize_city_or_404(name: str) -> str: - city = name.lower().strip().replace("-", " ") - city = ALIASES.get(city, city) - if city not in CITIES: - raise HTTPException(404, detail=f"Unknown city: {city}") - return city - - -def _build_city_summary_payload(data: Dict[str, Any]) -> Dict[str, Any]: - return { - "name": data.get("name"), - "display_name": data.get("display_name"), - "icao": data.get("risk", {}).get("icao"), - "local_time": data.get("local_time"), - "temp_symbol": data.get("temp_symbol"), - "current": { - "temp": data.get("current", {}).get("temp"), - "obs_time": data.get("current", {}).get("obs_time"), - "settlement_source": data.get("current", {}).get("settlement_source"), - "settlement_source_label": data.get("current", {}).get("settlement_source_label"), - }, - "deb": { - "prediction": data.get("deb", {}).get("prediction"), - }, - "risk": { - "level": data.get("risk", {}).get("level"), - "warning": data.get("risk", {}).get("warning"), - }, - "updated_at": data.get("updated_at"), - } - - -def _build_city_detail_payload( - data: Dict[str, Any], - market_slug: Optional[str] = None, - target_date: Optional[str] = None, -) -> Dict[str, Any]: - local_date = str(data.get("local_date") or "").strip() - requested_date = str(target_date or "").strip() - selected_date = requested_date or local_date - - multi_model_daily = data.get("multi_model_daily") or {} - selected_daily = ( - multi_model_daily.get(selected_date) - if isinstance(multi_model_daily, dict) - else None - ) - if not isinstance(selected_daily, dict): - selected_daily = {} - selected_date = local_date - - distribution = selected_daily.get("probabilities") - if not isinstance(distribution, list) or not distribution: - distribution = data.get("probabilities", {}).get("distribution", []) or [] - - model_map = selected_daily.get("models") or data.get("multi_model") or {} - if not isinstance(model_map, dict): - model_map = {} - - # Mispricing anchor temperature: - # use the highest value across all available model highs. - anchor_temp = None - anchor_model = None - for model_name, raw_value in model_map.items(): - value = _sf(raw_value) - if value is None: - continue - if anchor_temp is None or value > anchor_temp: - anchor_temp = value - anchor_model = str(model_name or "").strip() or None - - anchor_temp_c = anchor_temp - temp_symbol = str(data.get("temp_symbol") or "") - if anchor_temp_c is not None and "F" in temp_symbol.upper(): - anchor_temp_c = (anchor_temp_c - 32.0) * 5.0 / 9.0 - anchor_settlement = apply_city_settlement(city.lower(), anchor_temp_c) if anchor_temp_c is not None else None - - primary_bucket = None - if isinstance(distribution, list) and distribution: - if anchor_temp is None: - primary_bucket = distribution[0] - else: - ranked_buckets = [] - for idx, row in enumerate(distribution): - if not isinstance(row, dict): - continue - bucket_temp = _sf(row.get("value")) - bucket_prob = _sf(row.get("probability")) - if bucket_temp is None: - continue - prob_rank = bucket_prob if bucket_prob is not None else -1.0 - ranked_buckets.append((abs(bucket_temp - anchor_temp), -prob_rank, idx, row)) - if ranked_buckets: - ranked_buckets.sort(key=lambda x: (x[0], x[1], x[2])) - primary_bucket = ranked_buckets[0][3] - else: - primary_bucket = distribution[0] - - model_probability = None - if isinstance(primary_bucket, dict) and primary_bucket.get("probability") is not None: - try: - raw_probability = float(primary_bucket.get("probability")) - model_probability = ( - raw_probability / 100.0 if raw_probability > 1.0 else raw_probability - ) - except Exception: - model_probability = None - fallback_sparkline = [ - p.get("probability", 0) - for p in distribution[:8] - if isinstance(p, dict) - ] - market_scan = _market_layer.build_market_scan( - city=data.get("name"), - target_date=selected_date or data.get("local_date"), - temperature_bucket=primary_bucket if isinstance(primary_bucket, dict) else None, - model_probability=model_probability, - fallback_sparkline=fallback_sparkline, - forced_market_slug=market_slug, - ) - if isinstance(market_scan, dict): - market_scan["anchor_model"] = anchor_model - market_scan["anchor_high"] = anchor_temp - market_scan["anchor_settlement"] = anchor_settlement - # Keep legacy key for compatibility with old checks. - market_scan["open_meteo_settlement"] = anchor_settlement - return { - "city": data.get("name"), - "fetched_at": data.get("updated_at"), - "overview": { - "name": data.get("name"), - "display_name": data.get("display_name"), - "icao": data.get("risk", {}).get("icao"), - "airport": data.get("risk", {}).get("airport"), - "lat": data.get("lat"), - "lon": data.get("lon"), - "local_time": data.get("local_time"), - "local_date": data.get("local_date"), - "temp_symbol": data.get("temp_symbol"), - "current_temp": data.get("current", {}).get("temp"), - "settlement_source": data.get("current", {}).get("settlement_source"), - "settlement_source_label": data.get("current", {}).get("settlement_source_label"), - "deb_prediction": data.get("deb", {}).get("prediction"), - "risk_level": data.get("risk", {}).get("level"), - "risk_warning": data.get("risk", {}).get("warning"), - "updated_at": data.get("updated_at"), - }, - "official": { - "available": bool(data.get("current", {}).get("temp") is not None), - "metar": { - "observation_time": data.get("current", {}).get("obs_time"), - "obs_age_min": data.get("current", {}).get("obs_age_min"), - "report_time": data.get("current", {}).get("report_time"), - "receipt_time": data.get("current", {}).get("receipt_time"), - "raw_metar": data.get("current", {}).get("raw_metar"), - "current": data.get("current"), - }, - "weather_gov": {}, - "mgm": data.get("mgm") or {}, - "mgm_nearby": data.get("mgm_nearby") or [], - "nearby_source": "mgm" if data.get("name") == "ankara" else "metar_cluster", - }, - "timeseries": { - "metar_recent_obs": data.get("metar_recent_obs") or [], - "metar_today_obs": data.get("metar_today_obs") or [], - "settlement_today_obs": data.get("settlement_today_obs") or [], - "hourly": data.get("hourly") or {}, - "mgm_hourly": (data.get("mgm") or {}).get("hourly", []), - "forecast_daily": (data.get("forecast") or {}).get("daily", []), - }, - "models": { - k: v - for k, v in (data.get("multi_model") or {}).items() - if not _is_excluded_model_name(k) - }, - "probabilities": data.get("probabilities") or {"mu": None, "distribution": []}, - "market_scan": market_scan, - "risk": data.get("risk"), - "ai_analysis": data.get("ai_analysis") or "", - "errors": {}, - } - - -@app.get("/api/history/{name}") -async def city_history(request: Request, name: str): - """Return historical accuracy data (DEB, mu, actuals) for a city.""" - _assert_entitlement(request) - name = name.lower().strip().replace("-", " ") - name = ALIASES.get(name, name) - - from src.analysis.deb_algorithm import load_history - import os - - project_root = os.path.dirname(os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__))) - history_file = os.path.join(project_root, "data", "daily_records.json") - data = load_history(history_file) - - if name not in data: - source = str(CITIES.get(name, {}).get("settlement_source") or "metar").strip().lower() - return { - "history": [], - "settlement_source": source, - "settlement_source_label": SETTLEMENT_SOURCE_LABELS.get(source, source.upper()), - } - - city_data = data[name] - out = [] - for d, rec in sorted(city_data.items()): - act = rec.get("actual_high") - deb = rec.get("deb_prediction") - mu = rec.get("mu") - forecasts_raw = rec.get("forecasts", {}) or {} - forecasts = {} - if isinstance(forecasts_raw, dict): - for model_name, model_value in forecasts_raw.items(): - if _is_excluded_model_name(str(model_name)): - continue - fv = _sf(model_value) - forecasts[str(model_name)] = fv if fv is not None else None - mgm = forecasts.get("MGM") - - # Only return items where we have at least an actual or a prediction - out.append({ - "date": d, - "actual": float(act) if act is not None else None, - "deb": float(deb) if deb is not None else None, - "mu": float(mu) if mu is not None else None, - "mgm": float(mgm) if mgm is not None else None, - "forecasts": forecasts, - }) - source = str(CITIES.get(name, {}).get("settlement_source") or "metar").strip().lower() - return { - "history": out, - "settlement_source": source, - "settlement_source_label": SETTLEMENT_SOURCE_LABELS.get(source, source.upper()), - } - - -@app.get("/api/auth/me") -async def auth_me(request: Request): - _assert_entitlement(request) - _bind_optional_supabase_identity(request) - - user_id = getattr(request.state, "auth_user_id", None) - subscription_required = bool( - SUPABASE_ENTITLEMENT.enabled - and _SUPABASE_AUTH_REQUIRED - and SUPABASE_ENTITLEMENT.require_subscription - ) - subscription_active = None - subscription_plan_code = None - subscription_starts_at = None - subscription_expires_at = None - if SUPABASE_ENTITLEMENT.enabled and user_id: - try: - latest_subscription = SUPABASE_ENTITLEMENT.get_latest_active_subscription( - user_id, - respect_requirement=False, - ) - subscription_active = bool(latest_subscription) - if isinstance(latest_subscription, dict): - subscription_plan_code = latest_subscription.get("plan_code") - subscription_starts_at = latest_subscription.get("starts_at") - subscription_expires_at = latest_subscription.get("expires_at") - except Exception: - subscription_active = None - subscription_plan_code = None - subscription_starts_at = None - subscription_expires_at = None - - points = _resolve_auth_points(request) - weekly_profile = _resolve_weekly_profile(request) - - return { - "authenticated": bool(user_id), - "user_id": user_id, - "email": getattr(request.state, "auth_email", None), - "points": points, - "weekly_points": weekly_profile["weekly_points"], - "weekly_rank": weekly_profile["weekly_rank"], - "entitlement_mode": ( - "supabase_required" - if SUPABASE_ENTITLEMENT.enabled and _SUPABASE_AUTH_REQUIRED - else "supabase_optional" - if SUPABASE_ENTITLEMENT.enabled - else "legacy_token" - if _ENTITLEMENT_GUARD_ENABLED - else "disabled" - ), - "auth_required": bool(SUPABASE_ENTITLEMENT.enabled and _SUPABASE_AUTH_REQUIRED), - "subscription_required": subscription_required, - "subscription_active": subscription_active, - "subscription_plan_code": subscription_plan_code, - "subscription_starts_at": subscription_starts_at, - "subscription_expires_at": subscription_expires_at, - } - - -@app.get("/api/payments/config") -async def payment_config(request: Request): - _assert_entitlement(request) - try: - return PAYMENT_CHECKOUT.get_config_payload() - except PaymentCheckoutError as exc: - raise HTTPException(status_code=exc.status_code, detail=exc.detail) from exc - - -@app.get("/api/payments/wallets") -async def payment_wallets(request: Request): - _assert_entitlement(request) - identity = _require_supabase_identity(request) - try: - wallets = PAYMENT_CHECKOUT.list_wallets(identity["user_id"]) - return { - "wallets": [w.__dict__ for w in wallets], - "chain_id": PAYMENT_CHECKOUT.chain_id, - } - except PaymentCheckoutError as exc: - raise HTTPException(status_code=exc.status_code, detail=exc.detail) from exc - - -@app.delete("/api/payments/wallets") -async def payment_wallet_unbind(request: Request, body: WalletUnbindRequest): - _assert_entitlement(request) - identity = _require_supabase_identity(request) - try: - return PAYMENT_CHECKOUT.unbind_wallet( - user_id=identity["user_id"], - address=body.address, - ) - except PaymentCheckoutError as exc: - raise HTTPException(status_code=exc.status_code, detail=exc.detail) from exc - - -@app.post("/api/payments/wallets/challenge") -async def payment_wallet_challenge(request: Request, body: WalletChallengeRequest): - _assert_entitlement(request) - identity = _require_supabase_identity(request) - try: - challenge = PAYMENT_CHECKOUT.create_wallet_challenge( - user_id=identity["user_id"], - address=body.address, - ) - return challenge - except PaymentCheckoutError as exc: - raise HTTPException(status_code=exc.status_code, detail=exc.detail) from exc - - -@app.post("/api/payments/wallets/verify") -async def payment_wallet_verify(request: Request, body: WalletVerifyRequest): - _assert_entitlement(request) - identity = _require_supabase_identity(request) - try: - bound = PAYMENT_CHECKOUT.verify_wallet_binding( - user_id=identity["user_id"], - address=body.address, - nonce=body.nonce, - signature=body.signature, - ) - return {"wallet": bound.__dict__} - except PaymentCheckoutError as exc: - raise HTTPException(status_code=exc.status_code, detail=exc.detail) from exc - - -@app.post("/api/payments/intents") -async def payment_create_intent(request: Request, body: CreatePaymentIntentRequest): - _assert_entitlement(request) - identity = _require_supabase_identity(request) - try: - return PAYMENT_CHECKOUT.create_intent( - user_id=identity["user_id"], - plan_code=body.plan_code, - payment_mode=body.payment_mode, - allowed_wallet=body.allowed_wallet, - token_address=body.token_address, - use_points=body.use_points, - points_to_consume=body.points_to_consume, - metadata=body.metadata, - ) - except PaymentCheckoutError as exc: - raise HTTPException(status_code=exc.status_code, detail=exc.detail) from exc - - -@app.get("/api/payments/intents/{intent_id}") -async def payment_get_intent(request: Request, intent_id: str): - _assert_entitlement(request) - identity = _require_supabase_identity(request) - try: - intent = PAYMENT_CHECKOUT.get_intent( - user_id=identity["user_id"], - intent_id=intent_id, - ) - return {"intent": intent.__dict__} - except PaymentCheckoutError as exc: - raise HTTPException(status_code=exc.status_code, detail=exc.detail) from exc - - -@app.post("/api/payments/intents/{intent_id}/submit") -async def payment_submit_tx( - request: Request, - intent_id: str, - body: SubmitPaymentTxRequest, -): - _assert_entitlement(request) - identity = _require_supabase_identity(request) - try: - return PAYMENT_CHECKOUT.submit_intent_tx( - user_id=identity["user_id"], - intent_id=intent_id, - tx_hash=body.tx_hash, - from_address=body.from_address, - ) - except PaymentCheckoutError as exc: - raise HTTPException(status_code=exc.status_code, detail=exc.detail) from exc - - -@app.post("/api/payments/intents/{intent_id}/confirm") -async def payment_confirm_tx( - request: Request, - intent_id: str, - body: ConfirmPaymentTxRequest, -): - _assert_entitlement(request) - identity = _require_supabase_identity(request) - try: - return PAYMENT_CHECKOUT.confirm_intent_tx( - user_id=identity["user_id"], - intent_id=intent_id, - tx_hash=body.tx_hash, - ) - except PaymentCheckoutError as exc: - raise HTTPException(status_code=exc.status_code, detail=exc.detail) from exc - - -@app.get("/api/city/{name}/summary") -async def city_summary(request: Request, name: str, force_refresh: bool = False): - _assert_entitlement(request) - city = _normalize_city_or_404(name) - data = _analyze(city, force_refresh=force_refresh) - return _build_city_summary_payload(data) - - -@app.get("/api/city/{name}/detail") -async def city_detail_aggregate( - request: Request, - name: str, - force_refresh: bool = False, - market_slug: Optional[str] = None, - target_date: Optional[str] = None, -): - _assert_entitlement(request) - city = _normalize_city_or_404(name) - data = _analyze(city, force_refresh=force_refresh) - return _build_city_detail_payload( - data, - market_slug=market_slug, - target_date=target_date, - ) - -# ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── -# Entrypoint -# ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── if __name__ == "__main__": import uvicorn diff --git a/web/core.py b/web/core.py new file mode 100644 index 00000000..7c32d531 --- /dev/null +++ b/web/core.py @@ -0,0 +1,260 @@ +""" +PolyWeather Web Core Context +""" + +import os +from typing import Dict, Any, Optional + +from fastapi import FastAPI, HTTPException, Request +from fastapi.middleware.cors import CORSMiddleware +from pydantic import BaseModel, Field +from loguru import logger + +from src.utils.config_loader import load_config +from src.data_collection.weather_sources import WeatherDataCollector +from src.data_collection.city_risk_profiles import CITY_RISK_PROFILES # noqa: F401 +from src.data_collection.polymarket_readonly import PolymarketReadOnlyLayer +from src.auth.supabase_entitlement import SUPABASE_ENTITLEMENT, extract_bearer_token +from src.database.db_manager import DBManager +from src.payments import PAYMENT_CHECKOUT, PaymentCheckoutError # noqa: F401 +from src.data_collection.city_registry import CITY_REGISTRY + +app = FastAPI(title="PolyWeather Map", version="1.0") + +_cors_origins = os.getenv( + "WEB_CORS_ORIGINS", + "http://localhost:3000,http://127.0.0.1:3000,https://polyweather-pro.vercel.app", +) +app.add_middleware( + CORSMiddleware, + allow_origins=[o.strip() for o in _cors_origins.split(",") if o.strip()], + allow_credentials=True, + allow_methods=["*"], + allow_headers=["*"], +) + +_config = load_config() +_weather = WeatherDataCollector(_config) +_market_layer = PolymarketReadOnlyLayer() +_account_db = DBManager() + +CITIES: Dict[str, Dict[str, Any]] = { + cid: { + "lat": info["lat"], + "lon": info["lon"], + "f": info["use_fahrenheit"], + "tz": info["tz_offset"], + "settlement_source": str(info.get("settlement_source") or "metar").strip().lower() or "metar", + } + for cid, info in CITY_REGISTRY.items() +} + +SETTLEMENT_SOURCE_LABELS: Dict[str, str] = { + "metar": "METAR", + "hko": "HKO", + "cwa": "CWA", + "mgm": "MGM", +} + +_cache: Dict[str, Dict] = {} +CACHE_TTL = 300 +CACHE_TTL_ANKARA = 60 + + +def _env_bool(name: str, default: bool = False) -> bool: + raw = os.getenv(name) + if raw is None: + return default + return raw.strip().lower() in {"1", "true", "yes", "on"} + + +_ENTITLEMENT_GUARD_ENABLED = _env_bool("POLYWEATHER_REQUIRE_ENTITLEMENT", False) +_ENTITLEMENT_HEADER = "x-polyweather-entitlement" +_ENTITLEMENT_TOKEN = (os.getenv("POLYWEATHER_BACKEND_ENTITLEMENT_TOKEN") or "").strip() +_FORWARDED_SUPABASE_USER_ID_HEADER = "x-polyweather-auth-user-id" +_FORWARDED_SUPABASE_EMAIL_HEADER = "x-polyweather-auth-email" +_SUPABASE_AUTH_REQUIRED = _env_bool( + "POLYWEATHER_AUTH_REQUIRED", + SUPABASE_ENTITLEMENT.enabled, +) + + +def _legacy_service_token_valid(request: Request) -> bool: + token = request.headers.get(_ENTITLEMENT_HEADER) + if not token: + token = extract_bearer_token(request.headers.get("authorization")) + return bool(_ENTITLEMENT_TOKEN and token == _ENTITLEMENT_TOKEN) + + +def _bind_optional_supabase_identity(request: Request) -> None: + if not SUPABASE_ENTITLEMENT.configured: + return + access_token = extract_bearer_token(request.headers.get("authorization")) + if not access_token: + return + identity = SUPABASE_ENTITLEMENT.get_identity(access_token) + if not identity: + return + request.state.auth_user_id = identity.user_id + request.state.auth_email = identity.email + request.state.auth_points = identity.points + + +def _resolve_auth_points(request: Request) -> int: + raw_points = getattr(request.state, "auth_points", 0) + try: + points = max(0, int(raw_points or 0)) + except Exception: + points = 0 + if points > 0: + return points + + user_id = str(getattr(request.state, "auth_user_id", "") or "").strip() + if not user_id: + return points + try: + db_points = _account_db.get_points_by_supabase_user_id(user_id) + if db_points > points: + request.state.auth_points = db_points + return db_points + except Exception as exc: + logger.warning(f"auth points fallback failed user_id={user_id}: {exc}") + return points + + +def _resolve_weekly_profile(request: Request) -> Dict[str, Any]: + user_id = str(getattr(request.state, "auth_user_id", "") or "").strip() + if not user_id: + return {"weekly_points": 0, "weekly_rank": None} + try: + profile = _account_db.get_weekly_profile_by_supabase_user_id(user_id) + return { + "weekly_points": int(profile.get("weekly_points") or 0), + "weekly_rank": profile.get("weekly_rank"), + } + except Exception as exc: + logger.warning(f"auth weekly profile fallback failed user_id={user_id}: {exc}") + return {"weekly_points": 0, "weekly_rank": None} + + +def _assert_entitlement(request: Request) -> None: + if SUPABASE_ENTITLEMENT.enabled: + if _legacy_service_token_valid(request): + return + if not _SUPABASE_AUTH_REQUIRED: + _bind_optional_supabase_identity(request) + return + if not SUPABASE_ENTITLEMENT.configured: + raise HTTPException( + status_code=503, + detail="Supabase auth is enabled but SUPABASE_URL / SUPABASE_ANON_KEY is not configured", + ) + + access_token = extract_bearer_token(request.headers.get("authorization")) + if not access_token: + raise HTTPException(status_code=401, detail="Unauthorized") + + identity = SUPABASE_ENTITLEMENT.get_identity(access_token) + if not identity: + raise HTTPException(status_code=401, detail="Unauthorized") + if not SUPABASE_ENTITLEMENT.has_active_subscription(identity.user_id): + raise HTTPException(status_code=403, detail="Subscription required") + + request.state.auth_user_id = identity.user_id + request.state.auth_email = identity.email + return + + if not _ENTITLEMENT_GUARD_ENABLED: + return + + if not _ENTITLEMENT_TOKEN: + raise HTTPException( + status_code=503, + detail="Entitlement guard is enabled but backend token is not configured", + ) + + if not _legacy_service_token_valid(request): + raise HTTPException(status_code=401, detail="Unauthorized") + + +def _require_supabase_identity(request: Request) -> Dict[str, str]: + if not SUPABASE_ENTITLEMENT.enabled: + raise HTTPException(status_code=503, detail="payment requires POLYWEATHER_AUTH_ENABLED=true") + if not SUPABASE_ENTITLEMENT.configured: + raise HTTPException(status_code=503, detail="payment requires SUPABASE_URL and SUPABASE_ANON_KEY") + + state_user_id = str(getattr(request.state, "auth_user_id", "") or "").strip() + if state_user_id: + state_email = str(getattr(request.state, "auth_email", "") or "").strip() + return {"user_id": state_user_id, "email": state_email} + + token = extract_bearer_token(request.headers.get("authorization")) + if token: + identity = SUPABASE_ENTITLEMENT.get_identity(token) + if identity: + return {"user_id": identity.user_id, "email": identity.email} + + legacy_ok = _legacy_service_token_valid(request) + if legacy_ok: + forwarded_user_id = str(request.headers.get(_FORWARDED_SUPABASE_USER_ID_HEADER) or "").strip() + if forwarded_user_id: + forwarded_email = str(request.headers.get(_FORWARDED_SUPABASE_EMAIL_HEADER) or "").strip() + return {"user_id": forwarded_user_id, "email": forwarded_email} + + logger.warning( + "payment auth identity missing state_user={} auth_bearer={} legacy_ok={} forwarded_user={}" + .format( + bool(state_user_id), + bool(token), + bool(legacy_ok), + bool(str(request.headers.get(_FORWARDED_SUPABASE_USER_ID_HEADER) or "").strip()), + ) + ) + raise HTTPException(status_code=401, detail="Unauthorized") + + +class WalletChallengeRequest(BaseModel): + address: str = Field(..., min_length=8) + + +class WalletVerifyRequest(BaseModel): + address: str = Field(..., min_length=8) + nonce: str = Field(..., min_length=6) + signature: str = Field(..., min_length=20) + + +class WalletUnbindRequest(BaseModel): + address: str = Field(..., min_length=8) + + +class CreatePaymentIntentRequest(BaseModel): + plan_code: str = Field(default="pro_monthly", min_length=2) + payment_mode: str = Field(default="strict") + allowed_wallet: Optional[str] = None + token_address: Optional[str] = None + use_points: bool = False + points_to_consume: Optional[int] = None + metadata: Dict[str, Any] = Field(default_factory=dict) + + +class SubmitPaymentTxRequest(BaseModel): + tx_hash: str = Field(..., min_length=10) + from_address: str = Field(..., min_length=8) + + +class ConfirmPaymentTxRequest(BaseModel): + tx_hash: Optional[str] = None + + +def _sf(v) -> Optional[float]: + if v is None: + return None + try: + return float(v) + except Exception: + return None + + +def _is_excluded_model_name(model_name: str) -> bool: + normalized = str(model_name or "").strip().lower().replace(" ", "").replace("_", "").replace("-", "") + return "meteoblue" in normalized diff --git a/web/routes.py b/web/routes.py new file mode 100644 index 00000000..9b78035a --- /dev/null +++ b/web/routes.py @@ -0,0 +1,359 @@ +from __future__ import annotations + +import os +from typing import Optional + +from fastapi import APIRouter, HTTPException, Request +from loguru import logger + +from src.analysis.deb_algorithm import load_history +from src.data_collection.city_registry import ALIASES +from web.analysis_service import ( + _analyze, + _build_city_detail_payload, + _build_city_summary_payload, +) +from web.core import ( + CITIES, + CITY_REGISTRY, + CITY_RISK_PROFILES, + PAYMENT_CHECKOUT, + PaymentCheckoutError, + SETTLEMENT_SOURCE_LABELS, + SUPABASE_ENTITLEMENT, + ConfirmPaymentTxRequest, + CreatePaymentIntentRequest, + SubmitPaymentTxRequest, + WalletChallengeRequest, + WalletUnbindRequest, + WalletVerifyRequest, + _ENTITLEMENT_GUARD_ENABLED, + _SUPABASE_AUTH_REQUIRED, + _assert_entitlement, + _bind_optional_supabase_identity, + _require_supabase_identity, + _resolve_auth_points, + _resolve_weekly_profile, + _sf, + _is_excluded_model_name, +) + +router = APIRouter() + + +def _normalize_city_or_404(name: str) -> str: + city = name.lower().strip().replace("-", " ") + city = ALIASES.get(city, city) + if city not in CITIES: + raise HTTPException(404, detail=f"Unknown city: {city}") + return city + + +@router.get("/api/cities") +async def list_cities(request: Request): + _assert_entitlement(request) + try: + out = [] + for name, info in CITIES.items(): + risk = CITY_RISK_PROFILES.get(name, {}) + settlement_source = str(info.get("settlement_source") or "metar").strip().lower() or "metar" + out.append( + { + "name": name, + "display_name": name.title(), + "lat": info["lat"], + "lon": info["lon"], + "risk_level": risk.get("risk_level", "low"), + "risk_emoji": risk.get("risk_emoji", "🟢"), + "airport": risk.get("airport_name", ""), + "icao": risk.get("icao", ""), + "temp_unit": "fahrenheit" if info["f"] else "celsius", + "is_major": CITY_REGISTRY.get(name, {}).get("is_major", True), + "settlement_source": settlement_source, + "settlement_source_label": SETTLEMENT_SOURCE_LABELS.get( + settlement_source, + settlement_source.upper(), + ), + } + ) + return {"cities": out} + except Exception as exc: + logger.error(f"Error in list_cities: {exc}") + raise HTTPException(status_code=500, detail=str(exc)) from exc + + +@router.get("/api/city/{name}") +async def city_detail(request: Request, name: str, force_refresh: bool = False): + _assert_entitlement(request) + return _analyze(_normalize_city_or_404(name), force_refresh=force_refresh) + + +@router.get("/api/history/{name}") +async def city_history(request: Request, name: str): + _assert_entitlement(request) + city = _normalize_city_or_404(name) + + project_root = os.path.dirname(os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__))) + history_file = os.path.join(project_root, "data", "daily_records.json") + data = load_history(history_file) + + if city not in data: + source = str(CITIES.get(city, {}).get("settlement_source") or "metar").strip().lower() + return { + "history": [], + "settlement_source": source, + "settlement_source_label": SETTLEMENT_SOURCE_LABELS.get(source, source.upper()), + } + + city_data = data[city] + out = [] + for day, rec in sorted(city_data.items()): + act = rec.get("actual_high") + deb = rec.get("deb_prediction") + mu = rec.get("mu") + forecasts_raw = rec.get("forecasts", {}) or {} + forecasts = {} + if isinstance(forecasts_raw, dict): + for model_name, model_value in forecasts_raw.items(): + if _is_excluded_model_name(str(model_name)): + continue + fv = _sf(model_value) + forecasts[str(model_name)] = fv if fv is not None else None + mgm = forecasts.get("MGM") + out.append( + { + "date": day, + "actual": float(act) if act is not None else None, + "deb": float(deb) if deb is not None else None, + "mu": float(mu) if mu is not None else None, + "mgm": float(mgm) if mgm is not None else None, + "forecasts": forecasts, + } + ) + + source = str(CITIES.get(city, {}).get("settlement_source") or "metar").strip().lower() + return { + "history": out, + "settlement_source": source, + "settlement_source_label": SETTLEMENT_SOURCE_LABELS.get(source, source.upper()), + } + + +@router.get("/api/auth/me") +async def auth_me(request: Request): + _assert_entitlement(request) + _bind_optional_supabase_identity(request) + + user_id = getattr(request.state, "auth_user_id", None) + subscription_required = bool( + SUPABASE_ENTITLEMENT.enabled + and _SUPABASE_AUTH_REQUIRED + and SUPABASE_ENTITLEMENT.require_subscription + ) + subscription_active = None + subscription_plan_code = None + subscription_starts_at = None + subscription_expires_at = None + + if SUPABASE_ENTITLEMENT.enabled and user_id: + try: + latest_subscription = SUPABASE_ENTITLEMENT.get_latest_active_subscription( + user_id, + respect_requirement=False, + ) + subscription_active = bool(latest_subscription) + if isinstance(latest_subscription, dict): + subscription_plan_code = latest_subscription.get("plan_code") + subscription_starts_at = latest_subscription.get("starts_at") + subscription_expires_at = latest_subscription.get("expires_at") + except Exception: + subscription_active = None + subscription_plan_code = None + subscription_starts_at = None + subscription_expires_at = None + + points = _resolve_auth_points(request) + weekly_profile = _resolve_weekly_profile(request) + + return { + "authenticated": bool(user_id), + "user_id": user_id, + "email": getattr(request.state, "auth_email", None), + "points": points, + "weekly_points": weekly_profile["weekly_points"], + "weekly_rank": weekly_profile["weekly_rank"], + "entitlement_mode": ( + "supabase_required" + if SUPABASE_ENTITLEMENT.enabled and _SUPABASE_AUTH_REQUIRED + else "supabase_optional" + if SUPABASE_ENTITLEMENT.enabled + else "legacy_token" + if _ENTITLEMENT_GUARD_ENABLED + else "disabled" + ), + "auth_required": bool(SUPABASE_ENTITLEMENT.enabled and _SUPABASE_AUTH_REQUIRED), + "subscription_required": subscription_required, + "subscription_active": subscription_active, + "subscription_plan_code": subscription_plan_code, + "subscription_starts_at": subscription_starts_at, + "subscription_expires_at": subscription_expires_at, + } + + +@router.get("/api/payments/config") +async def payment_config(request: Request): + _assert_entitlement(request) + try: + return PAYMENT_CHECKOUT.get_config_payload() + except PaymentCheckoutError as exc: + raise HTTPException(status_code=exc.status_code, detail=exc.detail) from exc + + +@router.get("/api/payments/wallets") +async def payment_wallets(request: Request): + _assert_entitlement(request) + identity = _require_supabase_identity(request) + try: + wallets = PAYMENT_CHECKOUT.list_wallets(identity["user_id"]) + return { + "wallets": [wallet.__dict__ for wallet in wallets], + "chain_id": PAYMENT_CHECKOUT.chain_id, + } + except PaymentCheckoutError as exc: + raise HTTPException(status_code=exc.status_code, detail=exc.detail) from exc + + +@router.delete("/api/payments/wallets") +async def payment_wallet_unbind(request: Request, body: WalletUnbindRequest): + _assert_entitlement(request) + identity = _require_supabase_identity(request) + try: + return PAYMENT_CHECKOUT.unbind_wallet( + user_id=identity["user_id"], + address=body.address, + ) + except PaymentCheckoutError as exc: + raise HTTPException(status_code=exc.status_code, detail=exc.detail) from exc + + +@router.post("/api/payments/wallets/challenge") +async def payment_wallet_challenge(request: Request, body: WalletChallengeRequest): + _assert_entitlement(request) + identity = _require_supabase_identity(request) + try: + return PAYMENT_CHECKOUT.create_wallet_challenge( + user_id=identity["user_id"], + address=body.address, + ) + except PaymentCheckoutError as exc: + raise HTTPException(status_code=exc.status_code, detail=exc.detail) from exc + + +@router.post("/api/payments/wallets/verify") +async def payment_wallet_verify(request: Request, body: WalletVerifyRequest): + _assert_entitlement(request) + identity = _require_supabase_identity(request) + try: + bound = PAYMENT_CHECKOUT.verify_wallet_binding( + user_id=identity["user_id"], + address=body.address, + nonce=body.nonce, + signature=body.signature, + ) + return {"wallet": bound.__dict__} + except PaymentCheckoutError as exc: + raise HTTPException(status_code=exc.status_code, detail=exc.detail) from exc + + +@router.post("/api/payments/intents") +async def payment_create_intent(request: Request, body: CreatePaymentIntentRequest): + _assert_entitlement(request) + identity = _require_supabase_identity(request) + try: + return PAYMENT_CHECKOUT.create_intent( + user_id=identity["user_id"], + plan_code=body.plan_code, + payment_mode=body.payment_mode, + allowed_wallet=body.allowed_wallet, + token_address=body.token_address, + use_points=body.use_points, + points_to_consume=body.points_to_consume, + metadata=body.metadata, + ) + except PaymentCheckoutError as exc: + raise HTTPException(status_code=exc.status_code, detail=exc.detail) from exc + + +@router.get("/api/payments/intents/{intent_id}") +async def payment_get_intent(request: Request, intent_id: str): + _assert_entitlement(request) + identity = _require_supabase_identity(request) + try: + intent = PAYMENT_CHECKOUT.get_intent( + user_id=identity["user_id"], + intent_id=intent_id, + ) + return {"intent": intent.__dict__} + except PaymentCheckoutError as exc: + raise HTTPException(status_code=exc.status_code, detail=exc.detail) from exc + + +@router.post("/api/payments/intents/{intent_id}/submit") +async def payment_submit_tx( + request: Request, + intent_id: str, + body: SubmitPaymentTxRequest, +): + _assert_entitlement(request) + identity = _require_supabase_identity(request) + try: + return PAYMENT_CHECKOUT.submit_intent_tx( + user_id=identity["user_id"], + intent_id=intent_id, + tx_hash=body.tx_hash, + from_address=body.from_address, + ) + except PaymentCheckoutError as exc: + raise HTTPException(status_code=exc.status_code, detail=exc.detail) from exc + + +@router.post("/api/payments/intents/{intent_id}/confirm") +async def payment_confirm_tx( + request: Request, + intent_id: str, + body: ConfirmPaymentTxRequest, +): + _assert_entitlement(request) + identity = _require_supabase_identity(request) + try: + return PAYMENT_CHECKOUT.confirm_intent_tx( + user_id=identity["user_id"], + intent_id=intent_id, + tx_hash=body.tx_hash, + ) + except PaymentCheckoutError as exc: + raise HTTPException(status_code=exc.status_code, detail=exc.detail) from exc + + +@router.get("/api/city/{name}/summary") +async def city_summary(request: Request, name: str, force_refresh: bool = False): + _assert_entitlement(request) + data = _analyze(_normalize_city_or_404(name), force_refresh=force_refresh) + return _build_city_summary_payload(data) + + +@router.get("/api/city/{name}/detail") +async def city_detail_aggregate( + request: Request, + name: str, + force_refresh: bool = False, + market_slug: Optional[str] = None, + target_date: Optional[str] = None, +): + _assert_entitlement(request) + data = _analyze(_normalize_city_or_404(name), force_refresh=force_refresh) + return _build_city_detail_payload( + data, + market_slug=market_slug, + target_date=target_date, + )