feat: add hourly peak correction for DEB charts

2026-05-27 22:41:16 +08:00
parent 14141314d7
commit 1a7d2a487f
8 changed files with 614 additions and 9 deletions
@@ -0,0 +1,109 @@
+from src.analysis.deb_hourly_correction import (
+    DEB_HOURLY_PEAK_CORRECTED_VERSION,
+    build_deb_hourly_path,
+    build_hourly_peak_corrector,
+)
+
+
+def test_hourly_peak_corrector_learns_peak_window_shape_from_snapshots():
+    snapshots = [
+        {
+            "city": "ankara",
+            "target_date": "2026-05-20",
+            "deb_prediction": 30.0,
+            "deb_base_path": {
+                "times": ["10:00", "12:00", "14:00", "16:00"],
+                "temps": [25.0, 27.0, 30.0, 28.0],
+            },
+            "settlement_today_obs": [
+                {"time": "12:00", "temp": 27.5},
+                {"time": "14:00", "temp": 32.0},
+                {"time": "16:00", "temp": 28.5},
+            ],
+            "peak": {"first_h": 13, "last_h": 15},
+        },
+        {
+            "city": "ankara",
+            "target_date": "2026-05-21",
+            "deb_prediction": 29.0,
+            "deb_base_path": {
+                "times": ["10:00", "12:00", "14:00", "16:00"],
+                "temps": [24.0, 26.0, 29.0, 27.0],
+            },
+            "settlement_today_obs": [
+                {"time": "12:00", "temp": 26.5},
+                {"time": "14:00", "temp": 31.0},
+                {"time": "16:00", "temp": 27.5},
+            ],
+            "peak": {"first_h": 13, "last_h": 15},
+        },
+    ]
+
+    corrector = build_hourly_peak_corrector(snapshots, min_samples=2)
+    result = corrector.apply(
+        "ankara",
+        ["10:00", "12:00", "14:00", "16:00"],
+        [24.0, 26.0, 29.0, 27.0],
+        peak_first_h=13,
+        peak_last_h=15,
+        deb_prediction=30.0,
+    )
+
+    assert result["version"] == DEB_HOURLY_PEAK_CORRECTED_VERSION
+    assert result["samples"] == 6
+    assert result["temps"][2] == 30.0
+    assert result["temps"][1] < result["temps"][2]
+    assert result["temps"][3] < result["temps"][2]
+    assert result["phase_adjustments"]["peak_window"]["samples"] == 2
+
+
+def test_build_deb_hourly_path_anchors_corrected_curve_to_deb_prediction():
+    corrector = build_hourly_peak_corrector(
+        [
+            {
+                "city": "shanghai",
+                "target_date": "2026-05-20",
+                "deb_base_path": {
+                    "times": ["10:00", "14:00", "18:00"],
+                    "temps": [25.0, 28.0, 24.0],
+                },
+                "settlement_today_obs": [
+                    {"time": "10:00", "temp": 24.0},
+                    {"time": "14:00", "temp": 30.0},
+                    {"time": "18:00", "temp": 23.0},
+                ],
+                "peak": {"first_h": 13, "last_h": 15},
+            },
+            {
+                "city": "shanghai",
+                "target_date": "2026-05-21",
+                "deb_base_path": {
+                    "times": ["10:00", "14:00", "18:00"],
+                    "temps": [26.0, 29.0, 25.0],
+                },
+                "settlement_today_obs": [
+                    {"time": "10:00", "temp": 25.0},
+                    {"time": "14:00", "temp": 31.0},
+                    {"time": "18:00", "temp": 24.0},
+                ],
+                "peak": {"first_h": 13, "last_h": 15},
+            },
+        ],
+        min_samples=2,
+    )
+
+    path = build_deb_hourly_path(
+        city="shanghai",
+        hourly_times=["10:00", "14:00", "18:00"],
+        hourly_temps=[24.0, 28.0, 23.0],
+        deb_prediction=29.0,
+        peak_first_h=13,
+        peak_last_h=15,
+        corrector=corrector,
+    )
+
+    assert path["source"] == DEB_HOURLY_PEAK_CORRECTED_VERSION
+    assert max(path["temps"]) == 29.0
+    assert path["temps"][1] == 29.0
+    assert path["temps"][0] < 25.5
+    assert path["correction"]["samples"] == 6