Fix DEB training truth finality handling

2026-06-24 18:18:45 +08:00
parent 0fef948fac
commit 1a5bab9fad
3 changed files with 117 additions and 13 deletions
@@ -0,0 +1,88 @@
+from src.database.runtime_state import (
+    DailyRecordRepository,
+    RuntimeStateDB,
+    TrainingFeatureRecordRepository,
+    TruthRecordRepository,
+)
+
+
+def _wire_runtime_repos(monkeypatch, tmp_path):
+    from src.analysis import deb_algorithm
+
+    db = RuntimeStateDB(str(tmp_path / "polyweather.db"))
+    daily_repo = DailyRecordRepository(db)
+    truth_repo = TruthRecordRepository(db)
+    feature_repo = TrainingFeatureRecordRepository(db)
+    monkeypatch.setattr(deb_algorithm, "_daily_record_repo", daily_repo)
+    monkeypatch.setattr(deb_algorithm, "_truth_record_repo", truth_repo)
+    monkeypatch.setattr(deb_algorithm, "_training_feature_repo", feature_repo)
+    monkeypatch.setattr(deb_algorithm, "_history_cache", {})
+    monkeypatch.setattr(deb_algorithm, "_history_mtime", 0)
+    monkeypatch.setenv("POLYWEATHER_STATE_STORAGE_MODE", "sqlite")
+    return db
+
+
+def test_intraday_daily_record_does_not_persist_unfinal_actual_as_truth(monkeypatch, tmp_path):
+    from src.analysis.deb_algorithm import update_daily_record
+
+    db = _wire_runtime_repos(monkeypatch, tmp_path)
+
+    update_daily_record(
+        "ankara",
+        "2026-06-24",
+        {"ECMWF": 28.0, "GFS": 27.0},
+        24.0,
+        deb_prediction=27.5,
+        mu=27.2,
+        actual_is_final=False,
+    )
+
+    with db.connect() as conn:
+        daily = conn.execute(
+            """
+            SELECT actual_high, deb_prediction, mu, payload_json
+            FROM daily_records_store
+            WHERE city = ? AND target_date = ?
+            """,
+            ("ankara", "2026-06-24"),
+        ).fetchone()
+        truth_count = conn.execute(
+            """
+            SELECT count(*) AS n
+            FROM truth_records_store
+            WHERE city = ? AND target_date = ?
+            """,
+            ("ankara", "2026-06-24"),
+        ).fetchone()["n"]
+
+    assert daily is not None
+    assert daily["actual_high"] is None
+    assert daily["deb_prediction"] == 27.5
+    assert daily["mu"] == 27.2
+    assert truth_count == 0
+
+
+def test_dynamic_weights_skip_actual_only_rows_when_selecting_recent_training_days(monkeypatch):
+    from src.analysis.deb_algorithm import calculate_dynamic_weight_components
+
+    history = {"ankara": {}}
+    for day in range(23, 15, -1):
+        history["ankara"][f"2026-06-{day:02d}"] = {"actual_high": 20.0}
+    history["ankara"]["2026-06-15"] = {
+        "actual_high": 20.0,
+        "forecasts": {"ECMWF": 20.0, "GFS": 30.0},
+    }
+    history["ankara"]["2026-06-14"] = {
+        "actual_high": 20.0,
+        "forecasts": {"ECMWF": 20.0, "GFS": 30.0},
+    }
+    monkeypatch.setattr("src.analysis.deb_algorithm.load_history", lambda _path: history)
+
+    components = calculate_dynamic_weight_components(
+        "ankara",
+        {"ECMWF": 20.0, "GFS": 30.0},
+        lookback_days=7,
+    )
+
+    assert components["weights"]["ECMWF"] > components["weights"]["GFS"]
+    assert components["prediction"] < 25.0