diff --git a/frontend/components/dashboard/PanelSections.tsx b/frontend/components/dashboard/PanelSections.tsx index 4b3aabbe..d14e0e52 100644 --- a/frontend/components/dashboard/PanelSections.tsx +++ b/frontend/components/dashboard/PanelSections.tsx @@ -260,16 +260,6 @@ function getRoundedModelVoteDistribution( }; } -function getMarketNoPrice(scan?: MarketScan | null) { - if (scan?.no_buy != null) { - const direct = Number(scan.no_buy); - if (Number.isFinite(direct)) return direct; - } - const marketYes = getMarketYesPrice(scan); - if (marketYes != null) return Math.max(0, Math.min(1, 1 - marketYes)); - return null; -} - function normalizeMarketProbability(value?: number | null) { if (value == null) return null; const numeric = Number(value); @@ -294,13 +284,6 @@ function formatSignedPercent(value?: number | null, digits = 1) { return `${sign}${percent.toFixed(digits)}%`; } -function formatKellyFraction(value?: number | null) { - const normalized = normalizeSignedProbability(value); - if (normalized == null) return "--"; - if (normalized <= 0) return "0%"; - return `${(normalized * 100).toFixed(1)}%`; -} - function getMarketTopBuckets(scan?: MarketScan | null) { const buckets = Array.isArray(scan?.top_buckets) ? scan.top_buckets : []; if (!buckets.length) return []; @@ -652,9 +635,7 @@ export function ProbabilityDistribution({ const view = getProbabilityView(detail, targetDate); const marketBucketTemp = getMarketBucketTemp(marketScan); const marketYesPrice = getMarketYesPrice(marketScan); - const marketNoPrice = getMarketNoPrice(marketScan); const marketYesText = toPercent(marketYesPrice); - const marketNoText = toPercent(marketNoPrice); const isToday = !targetDate || targetDate === detail.local_date; const probabilityEngineLabel = formatProbabilityEngineLabel( detail, @@ -720,33 +701,40 @@ export function ProbabilityDistribution({ linkedMarketBucket?.market_price ?? yesPriceView?.ask ?? null; + const linkedNoAsk = linkedMarketBucket?.no_buy ?? noPriceView?.ask ?? null; const linkedMarketProbability = topProbability?.probability != null ? Number(topProbability.probability) : null; const linkedMarketEdge = linkedMarketProbability != null && linkedMarketAsk != null ? linkedMarketProbability - Number(linkedMarketAsk) : null; - const linkedMarketKelly = - linkedMarketProbability != null && - linkedMarketAsk != null && - Number(linkedMarketAsk) > 0 && - Number(linkedMarketAsk) < 1 - ? linkedMarketEdge! / (1 - Number(linkedMarketAsk)) + const linkedNoEdge = + linkedMarketProbability != null && linkedNoAsk != null + ? 1 - linkedMarketProbability - Number(linkedNoAsk) : null; + const linkedBestSide = + linkedMarketBucket && linkedNoEdge != null && linkedMarketEdge != null + ? linkedNoEdge > linkedMarketEdge + ? "no" + : "yes" + : null; + const linkedBestAsk = linkedBestSide === "no" ? linkedNoAsk : linkedMarketAsk; + const linkedBestEdge = + linkedBestSide === "no" ? linkedNoEdge : linkedMarketEdge; const preferredPriceView = linkedMarketBucket ? { - ask: linkedMarketAsk, - edge: linkedMarketEdge, - quarter_kelly: - linkedMarketKelly != null ? Math.max(0, linkedMarketKelly) / 4 : null, + ask: linkedBestAsk, + edge: linkedBestEdge, } : priceAnalysis?.best_side === "no" ? noPriceView : yesPriceView; const preferredSideLabel = linkedMarketBucket - ? "YES" + ? linkedBestSide === "no" + ? "NO" + : "YES" : priceAnalysis?.best_side === "no" ? locale === "en-US" ? "NO" @@ -778,6 +766,39 @@ export function ProbabilityDistribution({ : locale === "en-US" ? "CLOB fallback" : "CLOB 兜底"; + const actionableEdge = normalizeSignedProbability(preferredPriceView?.edge); + const actionText = + !marketScan + ? locale === "en-US" + ? "Waiting" + : "等待" + : !marketScan.available + ? locale === "en-US" + ? "No market" + : "无盘口" + : actionableEdge == null + ? locale === "en-US" + ? "No quote" + : "无报价" + : actionableEdge >= 0.02 + ? locale === "en-US" + ? `Watch ${preferredSideLabel}` + : `可关注 ${preferredSideLabel}` + : actionableEdge > 0 + ? locale === "en-US" + ? `Small ${preferredSideLabel}` + : `${preferredSideLabel} 优势较小` + : locale === "en-US" + ? "No clear edge" + : "暂无优势"; + const actionNote = + actionableEdge != null && actionableEdge >= 0.02 + ? locale === "en-US" + ? "model above ask" + : "模型高于买价" + : locale === "en-US" + ? "read-only signal" + : "只读信号"; return (
@@ -840,12 +861,12 @@ export function ProbabilityDistribution({ : "未匹配到活跃盘口" : linkedMarketBucket ? locale === "en-US" - ? `${topProbabilityLabel || "Top bucket"} vs ${toPriceCents(linkedMarketAsk) || "--"}` - : `${topProbabilityLabel || "最高概率桶"} 对比 ${toPriceCents(linkedMarketAsk) || "--"}` + ? `${actionText}: ${topProbabilityLabel || "top bucket"}` + : `${actionText}：${topProbabilityLabel || "最高概率桶"}` : preferredPriceView?.edge != null ? locale === "en-US" - ? `${preferredSideLabel} edge ${formatSignedPercent(preferredPriceView.edge)}` - : `${preferredSideLabel} 边际 ${formatSignedPercent(preferredPriceView.edge)}` + ? `${actionText} · edge ${formatSignedPercent(preferredPriceView.edge)}` + : `${actionText} · 优势 ${formatSignedPercent(preferredPriceView.edge)}` : locale === "en-US" ? "Waiting for executable quote" : "等待可执行报价"} @@ -858,8 +879,13 @@ export function ProbabilityDistribution({ {topProbabilityText || "--"}
- {locale === "en-US" ? "Market ask" : "市场 ask"} - {toPriceCents(linkedMarketAsk ?? yesPriceView?.ask) || "--"} + {locale === "en-US" ? "Candidate" : "可关注"} + {actionText} + {actionNote} +
+
+ {locale === "en-US" ? "Buy price" : "买入价格"} + {toPriceCents(preferredPriceView?.ask) || "--"} {linkedMarketBucket ? locale === "en-US" @@ -873,30 +899,17 @@ export function ProbabilityDistribution({
- {locale === "en-US" ? "Edge" : "边际"} + {locale === "en-US" ? "Model edge" : "模型优势"} {formatSignedPercent(preferredPriceView?.edge)} {quoteSourceLabel}
-
- {locale === "en-US" ? "1/4 Kelly" : "1/4 Kelly"} - {formatKellyFraction(preferredPriceView?.quarter_kelly)} - - {lockAvailable - ? locale === "en-US" - ? `lock ${formatSignedPercent(lockEdge)}` - : `锁价 ${formatSignedPercent(lockEdge)}` - : locale === "en-US" - ? "cap required" - : "需限额"} - -

{locale === "en-US" - ? `Read-only sizing reference from executable quotes; it does not place orders. Source: ${quoteSourceLabel}.` - : `基于可执行盘口的只读仓位参考；系统不会下单。来源：${quoteSourceLabel}。`} + ? `Read-only comparison between model probability and executable ask; it does not place orders. Source: ${quoteSourceLabel}${lockAvailable ? ` · lock ${formatSignedPercent(lockEdge)}` : ""}.` + : `只比较模型概率与可执行买价；系统不会下单。来源：${quoteSourceLabel}${lockAvailable ? ` · 锁价 ${formatSignedPercent(lockEdge)}` : ""}。`}

)} @@ -926,26 +939,12 @@ export function ProbabilityDistribution({ marketBucketTemp != null && bucketTemp != null && Math.abs(bucketTemp - marketBucketTemp) < 0.26; - const marketTag = isMarketBucket - ? locale === "en-US" - ? `Market ref: ${marketYesText || "--"}` - : `市场参考: ${marketYesText || "--"}` - : marketNoText - ? locale === "en-US" - ? `Market hedge: ${marketNoText}` - : `市场反向: ${marketNoText}` - : null; const yesPriceText = toPriceCents(marketYesPrice); - const noPriceText = toPriceCents(marketNoPrice); const marketTagFinal = isMarketBucket ? locale === "en-US" ? `Market ref: ${yesPriceText || "--"}` : `市场参考: ${yesPriceText || "--"}` - : noPriceText - ? locale === "en-US" - ? `Market hedge: ${noPriceText}` - : `市场反向: ${noPriceText}` - : marketTag; + : null; let bucketLabel = bucket.label || `${bucket.value}${detail.temp_symbol}`; if (bucketLabel) {