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Promote EMOS to the primary probability engine

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This commit is contained in:
2569718930@qq.com
2026-04-19 03:36:26 +08:00
parent 3e44ed6eaa
commit 1892d638fa
12 changed files with 509 additions and 675 deletions
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artifacts/probability_calibration/default.json
+45 -39
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@@ -1,20 +1,20 @@
{
"version": "emos-20260415170349",
"trained_at": "2026-04-15T17:03:49.122865+00:00",
"version": "emos-20260418192717",
"trained_at": "2026-04-18T19:27:17.348931+00:00",
"global": {
"mu": {
"intercept": 2.45853035,
"raw_mu_coef": 2.03689031,
"deb_coef": -1.41207502,
"ens_median_coef": 0.08616811,
"max_so_far_gap_coef": -0.5886898
"intercept": 2.60074353,
"raw_mu_coef": 1.97765258,
"deb_coef": -1.37457626,
"ens_median_coef": 0.10693472,
"max_so_far_gap_coef": -0.58256593
},
"sigma": {
"intercept": 0.61260118,
"raw_sigma_coef": -1.48747774,
"spread_coef": 2.24562634,
"peak_flag_coef": -0.15906747,
"max_so_far_gap_coef": -0.01835251
"intercept": 0.6373609,
"raw_sigma_coef": -1.41537225,
"spread_coef": 2.12997577,
"peak_flag_coef": -0.08633203,
"max_so_far_gap_coef": -0.00716383
}
},
"sigma_constraints": {
@@ -30,77 +30,83 @@
},
"blending": {
"alpha_mu": 0.05,
"alpha_sigma": 1.0
"alpha_sigma": 0.7
},
"cities": {
"tokyo": {
"samples": 5,
"mu_bias": 2.223946,
"mu_bias": 2.101101,
"sigma_scale": 2.0,
"confidence": 0.625
},
"ankara": {
"samples": 6,
"mu_bias": -0.396953,
"sigma_scale": 1.094474,
"mu_bias": -0.523145,
"sigma_scale": 1.139849,
"confidence": 0.75
},
"istanbul": {
"samples": 3,
"mu_bias": -0.163153,
"sigma_scale": 0.5,
"mu_bias": -0.285183,
"sigma_scale": 0.550171,
"confidence": 0.375
},
"hong kong": {
"samples": 7,
"mu_bias": 3.267553,
"mu_bias": 3.234676,
"sigma_scale": 2.0,
"confidence": 0.875
},
"taipei": {
"samples": 5,
"mu_bias": 4.80044,
"mu_bias": 4.731246,
"sigma_scale": 2.0,
"confidence": 0.625
},
"busan": {
"samples": 3,
"mu_bias": 0.177772,
"sigma_scale": 2.0,
"confidence": 0.375
},
"seoul": {
"samples": 3,
"mu_bias": -3.080962,
"sigma_scale": 1.437353,
"mu_bias": -3.070325,
"sigma_scale": 1.462196,
"confidence": 0.375
},
"milan": {
"samples": 3,
"mu_bias": -4.20255,
"mu_bias": -4.249866,
"sigma_scale": 2.0,
"confidence": 0.375
},
"shanghai": {
"samples": 3,
"mu_bias": 1.185335,
"sigma_scale": 1.68386,
"mu_bias": 1.080039,
"sigma_scale": 1.638119,
"confidence": 0.375
},
"warsaw": {
"samples": 3,
"mu_bias": -1.574246,
"sigma_scale": 1.343402,
"mu_bias": -1.68611,
"sigma_scale": 1.38114,
"confidence": 0.375
}
},
"metrics": {
"sample_count": 71,
"mean_crps": 3.226613,
"legacy_mean_crps": 3.608885,
"legacy_mean_mae": 3.81507,
"legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 0.492958,
"legacy_bucket_brier": 0.873776,
"selected_mean_crps": 3.44742,
"selected_mean_mae": 3.749078,
"selected_bucket_hit_rate": 0.492958,
"selected_bucket_brier": 0.878621,
"selected_score": 5.241857,
"legacy_score": 5.406287,
"sample_count": 74,
"mean_crps": 3.181501,
"legacy_mean_crps": 3.474108,
"legacy_mean_mae": 3.679324,
"legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 0.5,
"legacy_bucket_brier": 0.855395,
"selected_mean_crps": 3.322469,
"selected_mean_mae": 3.618254,
"selected_bucket_hit_rate": 0.5,
"selected_bucket_brier": 0.863048,
"selected_score": 5.08158,
"legacy_score": 5.233586,
"filled_actual_from_history": 0,
"settlement_history_city_count": 30,
"legacy_archive_samples": 54