Promote EMOS to the primary probability engine

This commit is contained in:
2569718930@qq.com
2026-04-19 03:36:26 +08:00
parent 3e44ed6eaa
commit 1892d638fa
12 changed files with 509 additions and 675 deletions
+45 -39
View File
@@ -1,20 +1,20 @@
{
"version": "emos-20260415170349",
"trained_at": "2026-04-15T17:03:49.122865+00:00",
"version": "emos-20260418192717",
"trained_at": "2026-04-18T19:27:17.348931+00:00",
"global": {
"mu": {
"intercept": 2.45853035,
"raw_mu_coef": 2.03689031,
"deb_coef": -1.41207502,
"ens_median_coef": 0.08616811,
"max_so_far_gap_coef": -0.5886898
"intercept": 2.60074353,
"raw_mu_coef": 1.97765258,
"deb_coef": -1.37457626,
"ens_median_coef": 0.10693472,
"max_so_far_gap_coef": -0.58256593
},
"sigma": {
"intercept": 0.61260118,
"raw_sigma_coef": -1.48747774,
"spread_coef": 2.24562634,
"peak_flag_coef": -0.15906747,
"max_so_far_gap_coef": -0.01835251
"intercept": 0.6373609,
"raw_sigma_coef": -1.41537225,
"spread_coef": 2.12997577,
"peak_flag_coef": -0.08633203,
"max_so_far_gap_coef": -0.00716383
}
},
"sigma_constraints": {
@@ -30,77 +30,83 @@
},
"blending": {
"alpha_mu": 0.05,
"alpha_sigma": 1.0
"alpha_sigma": 0.7
},
"cities": {
"tokyo": {
"samples": 5,
"mu_bias": 2.223946,
"mu_bias": 2.101101,
"sigma_scale": 2.0,
"confidence": 0.625
},
"ankara": {
"samples": 6,
"mu_bias": -0.396953,
"sigma_scale": 1.094474,
"mu_bias": -0.523145,
"sigma_scale": 1.139849,
"confidence": 0.75
},
"istanbul": {
"samples": 3,
"mu_bias": -0.163153,
"sigma_scale": 0.5,
"mu_bias": -0.285183,
"sigma_scale": 0.550171,
"confidence": 0.375
},
"hong kong": {
"samples": 7,
"mu_bias": 3.267553,
"mu_bias": 3.234676,
"sigma_scale": 2.0,
"confidence": 0.875
},
"taipei": {
"samples": 5,
"mu_bias": 4.80044,
"mu_bias": 4.731246,
"sigma_scale": 2.0,
"confidence": 0.625
},
"busan": {
"samples": 3,
"mu_bias": 0.177772,
"sigma_scale": 2.0,
"confidence": 0.375
},
"seoul": {
"samples": 3,
"mu_bias": -3.080962,
"sigma_scale": 1.437353,
"mu_bias": -3.070325,
"sigma_scale": 1.462196,
"confidence": 0.375
},
"milan": {
"samples": 3,
"mu_bias": -4.20255,
"mu_bias": -4.249866,
"sigma_scale": 2.0,
"confidence": 0.375
},
"shanghai": {
"samples": 3,
"mu_bias": 1.185335,
"sigma_scale": 1.68386,
"mu_bias": 1.080039,
"sigma_scale": 1.638119,
"confidence": 0.375
},
"warsaw": {
"samples": 3,
"mu_bias": -1.574246,
"sigma_scale": 1.343402,
"mu_bias": -1.68611,
"sigma_scale": 1.38114,
"confidence": 0.375
}
},
"metrics": {
"sample_count": 71,
"mean_crps": 3.226613,
"legacy_mean_crps": 3.608885,
"legacy_mean_mae": 3.81507,
"legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 0.492958,
"legacy_bucket_brier": 0.873776,
"selected_mean_crps": 3.44742,
"selected_mean_mae": 3.749078,
"selected_bucket_hit_rate": 0.492958,
"selected_bucket_brier": 0.878621,
"selected_score": 5.241857,
"legacy_score": 5.406287,
"sample_count": 74,
"mean_crps": 3.181501,
"legacy_mean_crps": 3.474108,
"legacy_mean_mae": 3.679324,
"legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 0.5,
"legacy_bucket_brier": 0.855395,
"selected_mean_crps": 3.322469,
"selected_mean_mae": 3.618254,
"selected_bucket_hit_rate": 0.5,
"selected_bucket_brier": 0.863048,
"selected_score": 5.08158,
"legacy_score": 5.233586,
"filled_actual_from_history": 0,
"settlement_history_city_count": 30,
"legacy_archive_samples": 54
@@ -1,284 +1,293 @@
{
"summary": {
"sample_count": 71,
"sample_count": 74,
"filled_actual_from_history": 0,
"legacy": {
"mean_crps": 3.608885,
"mean_mae": 3.81507,
"bucket_hit_rate": 0.492958
"mean_crps": 3.474108,
"mean_mae": 3.679324,
"bucket_hit_rate": 0.5
},
"emos": {
"mean_crps": 3.881798,
"mean_mae": 4.378282,
"bucket_hit_rate": 0.225352
"mean_crps": 3.33124,
"mean_mae": 3.622584,
"bucket_hit_rate": 0.5
},
"delta": {
"crps": 0.272913,
"mae": 0.563211,
"bucket_hit_rate": -0.267606
"crps": -0.142868,
"mae": -0.056741,
"bucket_hit_rate": 0.0
}
},
"by_city": {
"ankara": {
"samples": 6,
"legacy_mean_crps": 1.365135,
"emos_mean_crps": 1.454394,
"emos_mean_crps": 1.392829,
"legacy_mean_mae": 1.466667,
"emos_mean_mae": 1.781865,
"emos_mean_mae": 1.444819,
"legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 0.666667,
"emos_bucket_hit_rate": 0.333333
"emos_bucket_hit_rate": 0.666667
},
"atlanta": {
"samples": 2,
"legacy_mean_crps": 30.449382,
"emos_mean_crps": 30.2136,
"emos_mean_crps": 29.886236,
"legacy_mean_mae": 32.015,
"emos_mean_mae": 31.431544,
"emos_mean_mae": 31.322804,
"legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 0.0,
"emos_bucket_hit_rate": 0.0
},
"buenos aires": {
"samples": 2,
"legacy_mean_crps": 9.113412,
"emos_mean_crps": 9.25091,
"emos_mean_crps": 8.463522,
"legacy_mean_mae": 10.27,
"emos_mean_mae": 10.234011,
"emos_mean_mae": 10.024533,
"legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 0.0,
"emos_bucket_hit_rate": 0.0
},
"busan": {
"samples": 1,
"legacy_mean_crps": 0.451701,
"emos_mean_crps": 1.176676,
"samples": 3,
"legacy_mean_crps": 0.276202,
"emos_mean_crps": 0.326485,
"legacy_mean_mae": 0.3,
"emos_mean_mae": 1.887548,
"emos_mean_mae": 0.239636,
"legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 1.0,
"emos_bucket_hit_rate": 0.0
"emos_bucket_hit_rate": 1.0
},
"chengdu": {
"samples": 1,
"legacy_mean_crps": 0.306469,
"emos_mean_crps": 0.555327,
"emos_mean_crps": 0.378812,
"legacy_mean_mae": 0.3,
"emos_mean_mae": 0.929502,
"emos_mean_mae": 0.153224,
"legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 1.0,
"emos_bucket_hit_rate": 0.0
"emos_bucket_hit_rate": 1.0
},
"chicago": {
"samples": 1,
"legacy_mean_crps": 1.250268,
"emos_mean_crps": 2.090175,
"emos_mean_crps": 0.714669,
"legacy_mean_mae": 0.0,
"emos_mean_mae": 3.396557,
"emos_mean_mae": 0.319756,
"legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 1.0,
"emos_bucket_hit_rate": 0.0
"emos_bucket_hit_rate": 1.0
},
"dallas": {
"samples": 1,
"legacy_mean_crps": 2.173363,
"emos_mean_crps": 1.05572,
"emos_mean_crps": 0.840297,
"legacy_mean_mae": 0.0,
"emos_mean_mae": 1.653475,
"emos_mean_mae": 1.028146,
"legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 1.0,
"emos_bucket_hit_rate": 0.0
},
"hong kong": {
"samples": 7,
"legacy_mean_crps": 0.706099,
"emos_mean_crps": 1.573367,
"emos_mean_crps": 0.731926,
"legacy_mean_mae": 0.657143,
"emos_mean_mae": 1.88803,
"emos_mean_mae": 0.669911,
"legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 0.714286,
"emos_bucket_hit_rate": 0.142857
"emos_bucket_hit_rate": 0.571429
},
"istanbul": {
"samples": 3,
"legacy_mean_crps": 1.264103,
"emos_mean_crps": 1.266844,
"emos_mean_crps": 1.214967,
"legacy_mean_mae": 1.5,
"emos_mean_mae": 1.415758,
"emos_mean_mae": 1.469837,
"legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 0.333333,
"emos_bucket_hit_rate": 0.666667
},
"london": {
"samples": 2,
"legacy_mean_crps": 3.885033,
"emos_mean_crps": 4.057521,
"emos_mean_crps": 3.799841,
"legacy_mean_mae": 4.135,
"emos_mean_mae": 4.313103,
"emos_mean_mae": 4.027503,
"legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 0.0,
"emos_bucket_hit_rate": 0.0
"emos_bucket_hit_rate": 0.5
},
"lucknow": {
"samples": 2,
"legacy_mean_crps": 2.487193,
"emos_mean_crps": 2.021264,
"emos_mean_crps": 2.107441,
"legacy_mean_mae": 3.205,
"emos_mean_mae": 2.47462,
"emos_mean_mae": 2.876943,
"legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 0.0,
"emos_bucket_hit_rate": 0.5
"emos_bucket_hit_rate": 0.0
},
"madrid": {
"samples": 2,
"legacy_mean_crps": 6.27726,
"emos_mean_crps": 6.588692,
"emos_mean_crps": 5.810228,
"legacy_mean_mae": 7.33,
"emos_mean_mae": 7.486713,
"emos_mean_mae": 7.195133,
"legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 0.0,
"emos_bucket_hit_rate": 0.0
},
"miami": {
"samples": 2,
"legacy_mean_crps": 28.637631,
"emos_mean_crps": 28.800796,
"emos_mean_crps": 27.592664,
"legacy_mean_mae": 30.175,
"emos_mean_mae": 30.107593,
"emos_mean_mae": 29.284979,
"legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 0.0,
"emos_bucket_hit_rate": 0.0
},
"milan": {
"samples": 3,
"legacy_mean_crps": 4.401392,
"emos_mean_crps": 4.947416,
"emos_mean_crps": 3.782613,
"legacy_mean_mae": 4.06,
"emos_mean_mae": 5.6958,
"emos_mean_mae": 3.989808,
"legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 0.666667,
"emos_bucket_hit_rate": 0.333333
"emos_bucket_hit_rate": 0.666667
},
"munich": {
"samples": 2,
"legacy_mean_crps": 3.145192,
"emos_mean_crps": 3.200946,
"emos_mean_crps": 2.990712,
"legacy_mean_mae": 3.64,
"emos_mean_mae": 3.634475,
"emos_mean_mae": 3.61502,
"legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 0.0,
"emos_bucket_hit_rate": 0.0
},
"new york": {
"samples": 1,
"legacy_mean_crps": 3.692845,
"emos_mean_crps": 3.881457,
"emos_mean_crps": 3.021798,
"legacy_mean_mae": 4.94,
"emos_mean_mae": 4.954702,
"emos_mean_mae": 4.54437,
"legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 0.0,
"emos_bucket_hit_rate": 0.0
},
"paris": {
"samples": 2,
"legacy_mean_crps": 4.013782,
"emos_mean_crps": 4.130614,
"emos_mean_crps": 3.915303,
"legacy_mean_mae": 4.265,
"emos_mean_mae": 4.314216,
"emos_mean_mae": 4.179694,
"legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 0.5,
"emos_bucket_hit_rate": 0.5
},
"sao paulo": {
"samples": 2,
"legacy_mean_crps": 5.540967,
"emos_mean_crps": 5.483258,
"emos_mean_crps": 5.018605,
"legacy_mean_mae": 6.57,
"emos_mean_mae": 6.358434,
"emos_mean_mae": 6.314389,
"legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 0.0,
"emos_bucket_hit_rate": 0.0
},
"seattle": {
"samples": 1,
"legacy_mean_crps": 0.315488,
"emos_mean_crps": 0.271998,
"emos_mean_crps": 0.524119,
"legacy_mean_mae": 0.0,
"emos_mean_mae": 0.105037,
"emos_mean_mae": 0.673609,
"legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 1.0,
"emos_bucket_hit_rate": 1.0
"emos_bucket_hit_rate": 0.0
},
"seoul": {
"samples": 3,
"legacy_mean_crps": 0.508331,
"emos_mean_crps": 1.718042,
"emos_mean_crps": 0.520762,
"legacy_mean_mae": 0.2,
"emos_mean_mae": 2.57121,
"emos_mean_mae": 0.247862,
"legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 1.0,
"emos_bucket_hit_rate": 0.0
"emos_bucket_hit_rate": 1.0
},
"shanghai": {
"samples": 3,
"legacy_mean_crps": 0.299116,
"emos_mean_crps": 0.553444,
"emos_mean_crps": 0.402453,
"legacy_mean_mae": 0.1,
"emos_mean_mae": 0.71746,
"emos_mean_mae": 0.189437,
"legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 1.0,
"emos_bucket_hit_rate": 0.666667
"emos_bucket_hit_rate": 1.0
},
"shenzhen": {
"samples": 1,
"legacy_mean_crps": 1.198351,
"emos_mean_crps": 0.507942,
"emos_mean_crps": 1.490963,
"legacy_mean_mae": 1.3,
"emos_mean_mae": 0.644561,
"emos_mean_mae": 1.628189,
"legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 0.0,
"emos_bucket_hit_rate": 0.0
},
"singapore": {
"samples": 2,
"legacy_mean_crps": 0.281993,
"emos_mean_crps": 0.877023,
"emos_mean_crps": 0.370374,
"legacy_mean_mae": 0.15,
"emos_mean_mae": 1.142765,
"emos_mean_mae": 0.118005,
"legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 1.0,
"emos_bucket_hit_rate": 0.5
"emos_bucket_hit_rate": 1.0
},
"taipei": {
"samples": 5,
"legacy_mean_crps": 0.950739,
"emos_mean_crps": 1.257972,
"emos_mean_crps": 1.042332,
"legacy_mean_mae": 0.94,
"emos_mean_mae": 1.687014,
"emos_mean_mae": 0.951241,
"legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 0.6,
"emos_bucket_hit_rate": 0.2
"emos_bucket_hit_rate": 0.6
},
"tel aviv": {
"samples": 2,
"legacy_mean_crps": 0.446758,
"emos_mean_crps": 0.482341,
"emos_mean_crps": 0.578691,
"legacy_mean_mae": 0.3,
"emos_mean_mae": 0.62659,
"emos_mean_mae": 0.116966,
"legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 1.0,
"emos_bucket_hit_rate": 0.5
"emos_bucket_hit_rate": 1.0
},
"tokyo": {
"samples": 5,
"legacy_mean_crps": 0.879366,
"emos_mean_crps": 0.989336,
"emos_mean_crps": 0.876608,
"legacy_mean_mae": 1.022,
"emos_mean_mae": 1.450474,
"emos_mean_mae": 1.008317,
"legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 0.2,
"emos_bucket_hit_rate": 0.2
"emos_bucket_hit_rate": 0.4
},
"toronto": {
"samples": 2,
"legacy_mean_crps": 5.497916,
"emos_mean_crps": 6.296632,
"emos_mean_crps": 5.268783,
"legacy_mean_mae": 6.33,
"emos_mean_mae": 7.003984,
"emos_mean_mae": 6.388522,
"legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 0.0,
"emos_bucket_hit_rate": 0.0
},
"warsaw": {
"samples": 3,
"legacy_mean_crps": 1.618875,
"emos_mean_crps": 1.649515,
"emos_mean_crps": 1.524219,
"legacy_mean_mae": 2.056667,
"emos_mean_mae": 2.073494,
"emos_mean_mae": 2.006524,
"legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 0.333333,
"emos_bucket_hit_rate": 0.0
"emos_bucket_hit_rate": 0.333333
},
"wellington": {
"samples": 2,
"legacy_mean_crps": 0.364919,
"emos_mean_crps": 0.939463,
"emos_mean_crps": 0.484124,
"legacy_mean_mae": 0.15,
"emos_mean_mae": 1.007263,
"emos_mean_mae": 0.123335,
"legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 1.0,
"emos_bucket_hit_rate": 0.5
"emos_bucket_hit_rate": 1.0
},
"wuhan": {
"samples": 1,
"legacy_mean_crps": 0.476225,
"emos_mean_crps": 0.578405,
"legacy_mean_mae": 0.8,
"emos_mean_mae": 0.962852,
"legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 0.0,
"emos_bucket_hit_rate": 0.0
}
}
}