Promote EMOS to the primary probability engine

This commit is contained in:
2569718930@qq.com
2026-04-19 03:36:26 +08:00
parent 3e44ed6eaa
commit 1892d638fa
12 changed files with 509 additions and 675 deletions
+2 -2
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@@ -17,7 +17,7 @@ Public docs center: `/docs/intro` on the main site (bilingual product documentat
![PolyWeather Ankara analysis](docs/images/demo_ankara.png)
## Product Status (2026-04-18)
## Product Status (2026-04-19)
- Subscription live: `Pro Monthly 5 USDC`.
- Points redemption live: `500 points = 1 USDC`, max `3 USDC` off.
@@ -26,7 +26,7 @@ Public docs center: `/docs/intro` on the main site (bilingual product documentat
- Ops dashboard live: `/ops` for memberships, leaderboard, manual point grants, and payment incident triage.
- Lightweight observability live: `/healthz`, `/api/system/status`, `/metrics`.
- Runtime state, cache, and core offline training/backfill flows now use SQLite as the primary path; legacy JSON/JSONL files remain only for migration, export, and explicit fallback input.
- EMOS/CRPS pipeline is integrated in `shadow` mode with rollout gating.
- EMOS/CRPS calibrated probability is now the default primary probability engine (`emos_primary`); set `POLYWEATHER_PROBABILITY_ENGINE=emos_shadow` or `legacy` to roll back.
- Intraday analysis is now positioned as a professional meteorology read: headline, confidence, base/upside/downside paths, next observation point, evidence chain, failure modes, and confirmation rules.
- Intraday modal now blocks stale cached detail during refresh, so users do not briefly trade off old city/date data before full detail arrives.
- Calibrated model probability is now the primary probability panel. `LGBM` is shown as a calibrated probability engine when available; model consensus and market prices are secondary references.