feat: implement dashboard types, Polymarket data collection, and decision utilities for AI-driven city weather analysis

frontend/components/dashboard/scan-terminal/city-card-decision-utils.ts

@@ -35,6 +35,12 @@ export function normalizeMarketProbability(value: unknown) {
   return numeric;
 }
 
+function normalizeQuotePrice(value: unknown) {
+  const normalized = normalizeMarketProbability(value);
+  if (normalized == null || normalized <= 0) return null;
+  return normalized;
+}
+
 export function formatMarketPercent(value: number | null, digits = 1) {
   if (value == null || !Number.isFinite(value)) return "--";
   return `${(value * 100).toFixed(digits)}%`;
@@ -42,6 +48,7 @@ export function formatMarketPercent(value: number | null, digits = 1) {
 
 export function formatMarketCents(value: number | null) {
   if (value == null || !Number.isFinite(value)) return "--";
+  if (value > 0 && value < 0.01) return "<1¢";
   return `${Math.round(value * 100)}¢`;
 }
 
@@ -66,7 +73,9 @@ export function normalizeMarketComparableTemp(
 
 export function getMarketBucketLabel(bucket?: MarketTopBucket | null, tempSymbol = "°C") {
   const direct = String(bucket?.label || "").trim();
-  if (direct) return direct;
+  if (direct && /[°]?[CF]\b|\d+\s*[+-]?$/i.test(direct) && !/[�｡紊]/.test(direct)) {
+    return direct.replace(/\bC\b/g, "°C").replace(/\bF\b/g, "°F");
+  }
   const value = bucket?.temp ?? bucket?.value ?? bucket?.lower ?? null;
   const numeric = Number(value);
   if (Number.isFinite(numeric)) {
@@ -78,6 +87,53 @@ export function getMarketBucketLabel(bucket?: MarketTopBucket | null, tempSymbol
   return "--";
 }
 
+function getBucketAnchor(bucket: MarketTopBucket) {
+  const anchor = Number(bucket.temp ?? bucket.value ?? bucket.lower);
+  return Number.isFinite(anchor) ? anchor : null;
+}
+
+function getBucketModelProbability(bucket?: MarketTopBucket | null) {
+  const model = normalizeMarketProbability(bucket?.model_probability);
+  const probability = normalizeMarketProbability(bucket?.probability);
+  const market = normalizeMarketProbability(bucket?.market_price);
+  // Some persisted market_scan payloads from older builds overwrote bucket
+  // probability with the market price. Treat an exact price clone as missing
+  // model probability so the caller can fall back to scan.model_probability.
+  if (
+    model != null &&
+    market != null &&
+    Math.abs(model - market) <= 0.000_001
+  ) {
+    return null;
+  }
+  if (
+    probability != null &&
+    market != null &&
+    Math.abs(probability - market) <= 0.000_001
+  ) {
+    return null;
+  }
+  return model ?? probability;
+}
+
+function getMarketSelectedBucket(scan: MarketScan | null | undefined): MarketTopBucket | null {
+  const selected = scan?.temperature_bucket;
+  if (!selected) return null;
+  const value = Number(selected.value);
+  return {
+    label: selected.label || selected.bucket || selected.range || null,
+    value: Number.isFinite(value) ? value : null,
+    temp: Number.isFinite(value) ? value : null,
+    unit: selected.unit || null,
+    probability: selected.probability ?? scan?.model_probability ?? null,
+    model_probability: selected.probability ?? scan?.model_probability ?? null,
+    market_price: scan?.market_price ?? null,
+    yes_buy: scan?.yes_buy ?? null,
+    yes_sell: scan?.yes_sell ?? null,
+    slug: scan?.selected_slug ?? scan?.primary_market?.slug ?? null,
+  };
+}
+
 export function pickMarketBucketForWeatherCenter(
   scan: MarketScan | null | undefined,
   expectedHigh: number | null,
@@ -90,8 +146,18 @@ export function pickMarketBucketForWeatherCenter(
         ? scan?.top_buckets
         : []
   ) as MarketTopBucket[];
+  const selectedBucket = getMarketSelectedBucket(scan);
+  const isReasonableFallback = (bucket: MarketTopBucket | null) => {
+    if (!bucket) return false;
+    const comparable = normalizeMarketComparableTemp(expectedHigh, tempSymbol, bucket);
+    const anchor = getBucketAnchor(bucket);
+    if (comparable == null || anchor == null) return false;
+    const unit = String(bucket.unit || "").toUpperCase();
+    const maxReasonableDelta = unit === "F" ? 16 : 8;
+    return Math.abs(anchor - comparable) <= maxReasonableDelta;
+  };
   if (!buckets.length || expectedHigh == null || !Number.isFinite(expectedHigh)) {
-    return null;
+    return selectedBucket;
   }
 
   let nearest: MarketTopBucket | null = null;
@@ -111,15 +177,26 @@ export function pickMarketBucketForWeatherCenter(
     ) {
       return bucket;
     }
-    const anchor = Number(bucket.temp ?? bucket.value ?? bucket.lower);
+    const anchor = getBucketAnchor(bucket);
-    if (!Number.isFinite(anchor)) continue;
+    if (anchor == null) continue;
     const delta = Math.abs(anchor - comparable);
     if (delta < nearestDelta) {
       nearest = bucket;
       nearestDelta = delta;
     }
   }
-  return nearest;
+  if (!nearest) return isReasonableFallback(selectedBucket) ? selectedBucket : null;
+  const comparable = normalizeMarketComparableTemp(expectedHigh, tempSymbol, nearest);
+  const unit = String(nearest.unit || "").toUpperCase();
+  const maxReasonableDelta = unit === "F" ? 16 : 8;
+  if (
+    comparable != null &&
+    Number.isFinite(nearestDelta) &&
+    nearestDelta <= maxReasonableDelta
+  ) {
+    return nearest;
+  }
+  return isReasonableFallback(selectedBucket) ? selectedBucket : null;
 }
 
 export function buildMarketDecisionView({
@@ -171,18 +248,42 @@ export function buildMarketDecisionView({
   }
 
   const bucket = pickMarketBucketForWeatherCenter(marketScan, expectedHigh, tempSymbol);
-  const bucketProbability = normalizeMarketProbability(bucket?.probability);
+  if (!bucket) {
+    return {
+      bucketLabel: "--",
+      confidence: marketScan.confidence || "--",
+      edgeText: "--",
+      impliedText: formatMarketPercent(
+        normalizeMarketProbability(marketScan.market_price) ??
+          normalizeMarketProbability(marketScan.midpoint) ??
+          normalizeMarketProbability(marketScan.yes_midpoint),
+      ),
+      marketUrl: marketScan.market_url || marketScan.primary_market_url || null,
+      modelText: formatMarketPercent(normalizeMarketProbability(marketScan.model_probability)),
+      priceText: formatMarketCents(normalizeQuotePrice(marketScan.yes_buy)),
+      reason: isEn
+        ? "A market was found, but its temperature bucket does not match today’s expected high closely enough, so edge is withheld."
+        : "已找到市场，但温度桶与今日预计高点不够匹配，暂不计算概率差。",
+      status: "ready",
+      title: isEn ? "Market bucket needs rematch" : "市场温度桶需重新匹配",
+      tone: "watch",
+    };
+  }
+  const bucketProbability = getBucketModelProbability(bucket);
   const scanProbability = normalizeMarketProbability(marketScan.model_probability);
   const modelProbability = bucketProbability ?? scanProbability;
   const yesBuy =
-    normalizeMarketProbability(bucket?.yes_buy) ??
+    normalizeQuotePrice(bucket?.yes_buy) ??
-    normalizeMarketProbability(bucket?.market_price) ??
+    normalizeQuotePrice(marketScan.yes_buy);
-    normalizeMarketProbability(marketScan.yes_buy) ??
-    normalizeMarketProbability(marketScan.market_price);
   const yesSell =
-    normalizeMarketProbability(bucket?.yes_sell) ??
+    normalizeQuotePrice(bucket?.yes_sell) ??
-    normalizeMarketProbability(marketScan.yes_sell);
+    normalizeQuotePrice(marketScan.yes_sell);
-  const implied = yesBuy ?? yesSell ?? null;
+  const marketMid =
+    normalizeMarketProbability(bucket?.market_price) ??
+    normalizeMarketProbability(marketScan.market_price) ??
+    normalizeMarketProbability(marketScan.midpoint) ??
+    normalizeMarketProbability(marketScan.yes_midpoint);
+  const implied = marketMid ?? yesBuy ?? yesSell ?? null;
   const edge =
     modelProbability != null && implied != null ? modelProbability - implied : null;
   const tone =
@@ -216,9 +317,10 @@ export function buildMarketDecisionView({
     edgeText: formatSignedMarketPercent(edge),
     impliedText: formatMarketPercent(implied),
     marketUrl:
-      bucket?.slug
+      bucket?.market_url ||
+      (bucket?.slug
         ? `https://polymarket.com/market/${bucket.slug}`
-        : marketScan.market_url || marketScan.primary_market_url || null,
+        : marketScan.market_url || marketScan.primary_market_url || null),
     modelText: formatMarketPercent(modelProbability),
     priceText: formatMarketCents(yesBuy),
     reason:

frontend/components/dashboard/scan-terminal/decision-utils.ts

@@ -195,6 +195,50 @@ export function normalizeCityKey(value?: string | null) {
     .replace(/[\s_-]+/g, "");
 }
 
+function getOpportunityCardKey(row: ScanOpportunityRow) {
+  const city =
+    normalizeCityKey(row.city) ||
+    normalizeCityKey(row.city_display_name) ||
+    normalizeCityKey(row.display_name);
+  const date = String(row.selected_date || row.local_date || "").trim();
+  if (city || date) {
+    return `${city || row.id}:${date || "date-unknown"}`;
+  }
+  return row.id;
+}
+
+function getOpportunitySortScore(row: ScanOpportunityRow) {
+  return Number(row.final_score || 0) * 1000 + Number(row.edge_percent || 0);
+}
+
+function dedupeOpportunityCards(rows: ScanOpportunityRow[]) {
+  const bestByCard = new Map<string, ScanOpportunityRow>();
+  for (const row of rows) {
+    const key = getOpportunityCardKey(row);
+    const current = bestByCard.get(key);
+    if (!current || getOpportunitySortScore(row) > getOpportunitySortScore(current)) {
+      bestByCard.set(key, row);
+    }
+  }
+  return [...bestByCard.values()];
+}
+
+function takeUniqueOpportunityRows(
+  candidates: ScanOpportunityRow[],
+  usedCardKeys: Set<string>,
+  limit: number,
+) {
+  const picked: ScanOpportunityRow[] = [];
+  for (const row of candidates) {
+    const key = getOpportunityCardKey(row);
+    if (usedCardKeys.has(key)) continue;
+    usedCardKeys.add(key);
+    picked.push(row);
+    if (picked.length >= limit) break;
+  }
+  return picked;
+}
+
 export function prettifyCityName(value?: string | null) {
   return String(value || "")
     .trim()
@@ -323,25 +367,32 @@ export function getRowDecisionMeta(row: ScanOpportunityRow, locale = "zh-CN") {
 
 export function pickOpportunitySections(rows: ScanOpportunityRow[], locale = "zh-CN") {
   const isEn = locale === "en-US";
-  const top = [...rows]
+  const usedCardKeys = new Set<string>();
+  const uniqueRows = dedupeOpportunityCards(rows);
+  const top = takeUniqueOpportunityRows([...uniqueRows]
     .sort((left, right) => {
       const scoreDelta = Number(right.final_score || 0) - Number(left.final_score || 0);
       if (scoreDelta !== 0) return scoreDelta;
       return Number(right.edge_percent || 0) - Number(left.edge_percent || 0);
-    })
+    }), usedCardKeys, 4);
-    .slice(0, 4);
+  const peak = takeUniqueOpportunityRows(
-  const peak = rows
+    uniqueRows.filter((row) => {
-    .filter((row) => {
       const meta = getPeakCountdownMeta(row, locale);
       return meta.key === "active" || meta.key === "next";
-    })
+    }),
-    .slice(0, 4);
+    usedCardKeys,
-  const model = rows
+    4,
-    .filter((row) => Number(row.cluster_model_count || 0) >= 4 || Number(row.consensus_score || 0) >= 0.65)
+  );
-    .slice(0, 4);
+  const model = takeUniqueOpportunityRows(
-  const risk = rows
+    uniqueRows.filter((row) => Number(row.cluster_model_count || 0) >= 4 || Number(row.consensus_score || 0) >= 0.65),
-    .filter((row) => row.risk_level === "high" || ["veto", "downgrade"].includes(String(row.v4_metar_decision || row.ai_decision || "").toLowerCase()))
+    usedCardKeys,
-    .slice(0, 4);
+    4,
+  );
+  const risk = takeUniqueOpportunityRows(
+    uniqueRows.filter((row) => row.risk_level === "high" || ["veto", "downgrade"].includes(String(row.v4_metar_decision || row.ai_decision || "").toLowerCase())),
+    usedCardKeys,
+    4,
+  );
   return [
     {
       key: "top",

frontend/components/dashboard/scan-terminal/use-ai-city-card-data.ts

@@ -99,6 +99,13 @@ export function useAiCityForecast({
           let buffer = "";
           let rawStream = "";
           let finalPayload: AiCityForecastPayload | null = null;
+          let latestReadableText = "";
+          const rememberReadableText = (value?: string | null) => {
+            const text = String(value || "").trim();
+            if (text) {
+              latestReadableText = text;
+            }
+          };
           const handleBlock = (block: string) => {
             const message = parseSseBlock(block);
             if (!message || !message.data || typeof message.data !== "object") {
@@ -111,6 +118,7 @@ export function useAiCityForecast({
                   locale === "en-US" ? data.message_en || "" : data.message_zh || "",
                 ).trim() || String(data.message || "").trim();
               if (progressText && !cancelled) {
+                rememberReadableText(progressText);
                 setAiForecast((current) =>
                   current.status === "loading"
                     ? { ...current, streamText: current.streamText || progressText }
@@ -132,6 +140,7 @@ export function useAiCityForecast({
                 ).trim() ||
                 String(data.final_judgment_zh || data.final_judgment_en || "").trim();
               if (previewText && !cancelled) {
+                rememberReadableText(previewText);
                 setAiForecast((current) =>
                   current.status === "loading"
                     ? {
@@ -153,6 +162,7 @@ export function useAiCityForecast({
                     ? "AI has started streaming; parsing the METAR read field…"
                     : "AI 已开始流式输出，正在解析机场报文字段…"
                   : "");
+              rememberReadableText(airportRead || streamingText);
               if (!cancelled) {
                 setAiForecast((current) =>
                   current.status === "loading"
@@ -184,7 +194,45 @@ export function useAiCityForecast({
             handleBlock(buffer);
           }
           if (!finalPayload) {
-            throw new Error("AI stream ended before final payload");
+            const fallbackText =
+              extractStreamingAirportRead(rawStream, locale) ||
+              latestReadableText ||
+              (isEn
+                ? "The AI airport read stream was interrupted after partial output."
+                : "AI 机场报文解读已输出部分内容，但最终载荷未返回。");
+            const retryHint = isEn
+              ? "The streaming connection ended before the final structured payload. The partial airport read above is preserved; refresh once if you need the full JSON-backed conclusion."
+              : "流式连接在最终结构化载荷返回前结束。上方已保留已输出的机场报文解读；如需完整 JSON 结论可刷新一次。";
+            return {
+              city_forecast: {
+                confidence: "low",
+                final_judgment_en: isEn
+                  ? fallbackText
+                  : "Partial AI airport read was preserved after the stream ended early.",
+                final_judgment_zh: isEn
+                  ? "AI 机场报文解读已保留部分输出，但流式连接提前结束。"
+                  : fallbackText,
+                metar_read_en: isEn ? fallbackText : "",
+                metar_read_zh: isEn ? "" : fallbackText,
+                model_cluster_note_en: "",
+                model_cluster_note_zh: "",
+                predicted_max: null,
+                range_high: null,
+                range_low: null,
+                reasoning_en: retryHint,
+                reasoning_zh: retryHint,
+                risks_en: isEn ? [retryHint] : [],
+                risks_zh: isEn ? [] : [retryHint],
+                unit: detail?.temp_symbol || "°C",
+              },
+              raw_reason: "AI stream ended before final payload",
+              reason: retryHint,
+              reason_en: isEn
+                ? retryHint
+                : "AI stream ended before the final payload; partial text was preserved.",
+              reason_zh: isEn ? "AI 流在最终载荷前结束；已保留部分文本。" : retryHint,
+              status: "partial_stream",
+            };
           }
           return finalPayload;
         }),

frontend/hooks/useChart.ts

@@ -29,19 +29,25 @@ export function useChart<TType extends ChartType>(
       if (disposed) return;
 
       const config = createConfig();
-      if (chartRef.current) {
+      const nextType = (config as { type?: ChartType }).type;
-        chartRef.current.destroy();
+      const currentType = chartRef.current
-        chartRef.current = null;
+        ? (chartRef.current.config as { type?: ChartType }).type
+        : null;
+      if (chartRef.current && currentType === nextType) {
+        chartRef.current.data = config.data as ChartInstance<TType>["data"];
+        chartRef.current.options =
+          (config.options || {}) as ChartInstance<TType>["options"];
+        chartRef.current.update("none");
+        return;
       }
 
+      chartRef.current?.destroy();
       chartRef.current = new Chart(canvas, config);
     };
 
     void setupChart();
     return () => {
       disposed = true;
-      chartRef.current?.destroy();
-      chartRef.current = null;
     };
   }, dependencies);
 

frontend/lib/dashboard-types.ts

@@ -315,7 +315,9 @@ export interface MarketTopBucket {
   upper?: number | null;
   unit?: string | null;
   probability?: number | null;
+  model_probability?: number | null;
   market_price?: number | null;
+  edge_percent?: number | null;
   yes_buy?: number | null;
   yes_sell?: number | null;
   no_buy?: number | null;
@@ -325,6 +327,7 @@ export interface MarketTopBucket {
   quote_source?: string | null;
   quote_age_ms?: number | null;
   slug?: string | null;
+  market_url?: string | null;
   question?: string | null;
   is_primary?: boolean;
 }

src/data_collection/polymarket_readonly.py

@@ -901,7 +901,11 @@ class PolymarketReadOnlyLayer:
             if reference_price is not None:
                 reference_price = max(0.0, min(1.0, float(reference_price)))
                 bucket["market_price"] = reference_price
-                bucket["probability"] = reference_price
+                # Keep model probability separate from market-implied price.
+                # Older code overwrote ``probability`` with the quote, which made
+                # downstream UI compare a market price against itself or display
+                # stale bucket probabilities as weather probabilities.
+                bucket.setdefault("model_probability", bucket.get("probability"))
             if yes_prices.get("quote_source"):
                 bucket["quote_source"] = yes_prices.get("quote_source")
             if yes_prices.get("quote_age_ms") is not None: