diff --git a/.env.example b/.env.example index b4e8c806..dc097a59 100644 --- a/.env.example +++ b/.env.example @@ -63,8 +63,6 @@ POLYWEATHER_METAR_CLUSTER_TIMEOUT_SEC=3.5 METAR_CACHE_TTL_SEC=600 JMA_AMEDAS_CACHE_TTL_SEC=120 METEOBLUE_CACHE_TTL_SEC=7200 -# Probability engine modes: -# - legacy: production-safe primary path. # - emos_shadow: user-facing probability stays legacy, EMOS is generated for comparison. # - emos_primary: only after offline evaluation passes and manual rollout is approved. POLYWEATHER_PROBABILITY_ENGINE=legacy diff --git a/artifacts/models/lgbm_daily_high.txt b/artifacts/models/lgbm_daily_high.txt deleted file mode 100644 index 3785b31b..00000000 --- a/artifacts/models/lgbm_daily_high.txt +++ /dev/null @@ -1,2142 +0,0 @@ -tree -version=v4 -num_class=1 -num_tree_per_iteration=1 -label_index=0 -max_feature_idx=26 -objective=regression -feature_names=actual_high_lag_1 actual_high_lag_2 actual_high_lag_3 actual_high_lag_7 actual_high_mean_7 actual_high_mean_14 actual_high_trend_3 open_meteo ecmwf gfs gem jma icon mgm nws deb_prediction model_median model_spread current_temp max_so_far humidity wind_speed_kt visibility_mi local_hour month weekday peak_status_code -feature_infos=[-3:91] [-3:91] [-3:91] [-3:91] [-3:86.271430969238281] [-3:86.175003051757812] [-40.200000762939453:32.099998474121094] [0.10000000149011612:93.900001525878906] [-0.40000000596046448:89.699996948242188] [0.10000000149011612:93.900001525878906] [1.5:92.5] [0.60000002384185791:85.599998474121094] [0.5:89.5] none [38:91] [0.69999998807907104:90.099998474121094] [0.5:90] [0:31.299999237060547] [-3:82] [0:91] [28.200000762939453:100] [0:36] [0.87000000476837158:15] [0:23] [3:4] [0:6] [0:2] -tree_sizes=1381 1399 1405 1393 1426 1418 1428 1413 1457 1410 1409 1429 1416 1429 1426 1442 1444 1417 1443 1423 1451 1430 1430 1423 1418 1453 1430 1432 1494 1428 1448 1435 1445 1423 1487 1460 1475 1449 1424 1463 1481 1452 1511 1444 1475 1500 1451 1489 1478 1472 1511 1486 1466 1477 1491 1499 1487 1487 1495 1521 1551 1524 1544 1510 1487 1479 1523 1513 1517 1477 1521 1568 1487 1507 1544 1530 1507 1547 1522 1543 1504 1474 1577 1527 1542 1573 1508 1478 1544 1557 1524 1539 1503 1541 1507 1502 1579 1507 1521 1568 1529 1512 1564 1513 - -Tree=0 -num_leaves=15 -num_cat=0 -split_feature=15 15 11 16 15 15 15 10 7 15 19 0 11 15 -split_gain=504332 37179.2 17824.3 6319.52 6130.69 3751.16 2695.11 1354.89 1009.19 992.009 926.471 729.873 703.561 578.336 -threshold=46.350000381469734 21.750000000000004 66.549999237060561 14.250000000000002 28.650000572204593 60.250000000000007 77.950000762939467 8.7000002861022967 36.300001144409187 19.150000572204593 19.500000000000004 81.500000000000014 52.149999618530281 25.750000000000004 -decision_type=10 10 10 8 10 10 10 8 10 8 8 2 10 10 -left_child=1 3 5 7 10 12 11 -1 -6 -5 -3 -4 -2 -12 -right_child=2 4 6 9 8 -7 -8 -9 -10 -11 13 -13 -14 -15 -leaf_value=32.852650350411608 35.073275367696958 33.271936061972539 36.129539306905407 33.422144736934563 34.187650374493387 35.940686107953262 36.657186525795346 33.187978211681575 34.541998204175854 33.61260533911031 33.783505086254742 36.506261568546172 35.473507514249583 33.952094814326905 -leaf_weight=40 15.999999999999998 6.9999999999999991 45 178 159 56 97 122 23 111 117 18 35 90 -leaf_count=40 16 7 45 178 159 56 97 122 23 111 117 18 35 90 -internal_value=34.2629 33.6656 36.1577 33.3552 34.0191 35.6582 36.4918 33.1052 34.2324 33.4953 33.8377 36.2372 35.3479 33.8568 -internal_weight=1114 847 267 451 396 107 160 162 182 289 214 63 51 207 -internal_count=1114 847 267 451 396 107 160 162 182 289 214 63 51 207 -is_linear=0 -shrinkage=1 - - -Tree=1 -num_leaves=15 -num_cat=0 -split_feature=16 7 11 16 7 16 16 19 8 0 18 0 16 16 -split_gain=452466 34184.6 13748.5 8268.65 4660.34 2900.04 1622.27 976.793 933.386 893.989 661.838 611.042 519.863 514.725 -threshold=47.800001144409187 24.150000572204593 70.950000762939467 16.349999427795414 60.649999618530281 29.750000000000004 11.550000190734865 19.500000000000004 37.95000076293946 71.250000000000014 54.500000000000007 71.250000000000014 20.44999980926514 7.5499999523162851 -decision_type=10 10 10 8 10 10 10 8 10 2 10 2 8 10 -left_child=1 3 4 6 10 -3 13 -5 -7 -4 -2 -6 -9 -1 -right_child=2 5 9 7 11 8 -8 12 -10 -11 -12 -13 -14 -15 -leaf_value=-1.3926324844360352 0.96765205432207169 -0.31215202073897086 1.8980203108354048 -0.81079754829406747 1.5603800674964643 -0.054336710561599055 -0.93690812758037034 -0.68320028522227072 0.31082190394401554 2.2491447717240716 1.642984962463379 1.8249246978759766 -0.53368624553193145 -1.1304208309924018 -leaf_weight=27 39 155 22 69 58 140 140 101 20 103 3.9999999999999991 35 137 61 -leaf_count=27 39 155 22 69 58 140 140 101 20 103 4 35 137 61 -internal_value=-0.0121137 -0.571249 1.80882 -0.814555 1.46092 -0.158014 -1.04265 -0.645157 -0.00869188 2.18735 1.03047 1.65994 -0.597135 -1.21087 -internal_weight=1111 850 261 535 136 315 228 307 160 125 43 93 238 88 -internal_count=1111 850 261 535 136 315 228 307 160 125 43 93 238 88 -is_linear=0 -shrinkage=0.05 - - -Tree=2 -num_leaves=15 -num_cat=0 -split_feature=15 15 9 16 7 16 12 15 15 8 0 0 0 18 -split_gain=419600 30210.4 14327.1 6559.59 3232.94 2763.01 1555.67 1356.42 929.48 812.567 678.68 484.985 448.012 445.971 -threshold=46.350000381469734 23.750000000000004 71.250000000000014 15.750000000000002 57.750000000000007 29.000000000000004 73.850002288818374 11.050000190734865 19.349999427795414 36.850000381469734 83.200000762939467 69.200000762939467 82.40000152587892 54.500000000000007 -decision_type=10 10 10 8 10 10 10 10 10 10 2 2 2 8 -left_child=1 3 4 7 11 -3 -4 -1 -5 -7 13 -2 -8 -6 -right_child=2 5 6 8 10 9 12 -9 -10 -11 -12 -13 -14 -15 -leaf_value=-1.1647125796267861 0.86088414625688037 -0.32507572793960571 1.7542138151220374 -0.72514981677134838 1.2671983632174406 -0.073892239294946191 2.0566263471330917 -0.90027800673869118 -0.55030782275734846 0.25069838653911247 2.0575101089477541 1.2948184490203858 2.2646276963062775 1.536530543308632 -leaf_weight=76 33 150 37 144 22 156 77 134 161 22 4.9999999999999991 7.9999999999999991 39 51 -leaf_count=76 33 150 37 144 22 156 77 134 161 22 5 8 39 51 -internal_value=0.00890905 -0.542052 1.71648 -0.780925 1.30501 -0.166991 2.03651 -0.995978 -0.632856 -0.0337743 1.49396 0.945554 2.12656 1.45536 -internal_weight=1115 843 272 515 119 328 153 210 305 178 78 41 116 73 -internal_count=1115 843 272 515 119 328 153 210 305 178 78 41 116 73 -is_linear=0 -shrinkage=0.05 - - -Tree=3 -num_leaves=15 -num_cat=0 -split_feature=7 15 11 15 7 15 9 15 0 15 8 0 7 20 -split_gain=392078 26716.5 13730.2 5884.36 4118.31 2533.59 1245.14 878.716 857.368 665.358 573.595 532.354 362.972 357.13 -threshold=45.750000000000007 23.750000000000004 70.950000762939467 15.550000190734865 60.649999618530281 28.849999427795414 7.8500001430511483 19.150000572204593 71.250000000000014 34.250000000000007 51.550001144409187 79.549999237060561 64.15000152587892 82.500000000000014 -decision_type=10 10 10 8 10 10 8 8 2 10 10 2 10 10 -left_child=1 3 4 6 10 -3 -1 -5 -4 -7 -2 12 -6 -9 -right_child=2 5 8 7 11 9 -8 13 -10 -11 -12 -13 -14 -15 -leaf_value=-1.2207013550926658 0.70514118531171022 -0.31466083867209305 1.7057864622636274 -0.69660626563473027 1.2247111152200139 -0.076634642839127659 -0.89033575973941792 -0.5402607491141872 2.0474563684549416 0.1854227949833048 1.056009476893657 1.7181465244293215 1.4850608348846437 -0.11155755668878556 -leaf_weight=34 17 147 22 138 17 147 177 171 111 29 37 20 63 4.9999999999999991 -leaf_count=34 17 147 22 138 17 147 177 171 111 29 37 20 63 5 -internal_value=0.0213974 -0.519234 1.6188 -0.739366 1.29741 -0.161434 -0.94357 -0.602147 1.99094 -0.0334547 0.945551 1.48742 1.42974 -0.528082 -internal_weight=1135 848 287 525 154 323 211 314 133 176 54 100 80 176 -internal_count=1135 848 287 525 154 323 211 314 133 176 54 100 80 176 -is_linear=0 -shrinkage=0.05 - - -Tree=4 -num_leaves=15 -num_cat=0 -split_feature=15 15 15 15 15 7 18 15 15 19 8 18 1 19 -split_gain=341371 24866.1 11665.7 4128.59 3941.21 3549.8 988.365 831.971 704.867 685.783 671.765 514.097 494.72 444.456 -threshold=46.350000381469734 21.750000000000004 72.049999237060561 13.250000000000002 28.650000572204593 60.649999618530281 67.450000762939467 17.550000190734867 34.250000000000007 19.500000000000004 6.1500000953674325 54.500000000000007 78.250000000000014 73.450000762939467 -decision_type=10 10 10 8 10 10 8 8 10 8 8 10 10 10 -left_child=1 3 5 10 9 11 13 -5 -6 -3 -1 -2 -7 -4 -right_child=2 4 6 7 8 12 -8 -9 -10 -11 -12 -13 -14 -15 -leaf_value=-1.2412302017211916 0.84966564675172185 -0.83531267983572821 1.4959652996063233 -0.72990799310960275 -0.076240311214994444 1.3431407216769546 1.960651336113612 -0.56823423958110242 0.1853649389359259 -0.33203761679370231 -0.92766274244357383 1.4396542549133302 1.6077028234799702 1.8560112571716312 -leaf_weight=20 48 6.9999999999999991 20 152 152 67 96 167 31 205 117 3.9999999999999991 24 14.999999999999998 -leaf_count=20 48 7 20 152 152 67 96 167 31 205 117 4 24 15 -internal_value=0.00190264 -0.492314 1.53686 -0.743865 -0.201917 1.2246 1.87773 -0.64527 -0.0319247 -0.348655 -0.973439 0.895049 1.41292 1.65027 -internal_weight=1125 851 274 456 395 143 131 319 183 212 137 52 91 35 -internal_count=1125 851 274 456 395 143 131 319 183 212 137 52 91 35 -is_linear=0 -shrinkage=0.05 - 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- -Tree=103 -num_leaves=15 -num_cat=0 -split_feature=1 2 25 6 19 18 23 26 9 4 6 9 19 6 -split_gain=20.1895 24.1912 12.4034 25.8898 37.5771 22.8875 19.7626 39.9385 26.8032 28.2674 17.3776 18.8429 16.5141 16.3216 -threshold=70.549999237060561 62.549999237060554 2.5000000000000004 -11.249999999999998 63.799999237060554 5.5000000000000009 1.0000000180025095e-35 1.0000000180025095e-35 11.150000095367433 15.785714149475099 -10.949999809265135 71.350002288818374 5.5000000000000009 1.9499999880790713 -decision_type=8 8 2 8 8 8 2 2 8 2 8 8 10 10 -left_child=2 -2 10 4 -4 12 8 13 9 -7 11 -1 -5 -8 -right_child=1 -3 3 5 -6 6 7 -9 -10 -11 -12 -13 -14 -15 -leaf_value=-0.025544480544825388 0.1055509910519634 0.010895264039811477 -0.015640866756439217 -0.07882430133720239 0.17820714592933651 0.029878289205953486 -0.085470231740098254 0.0031615951004744375 0.0078585810684844073 0.19266864582896229 -0.0078559506417947567 -0.14107385575771333 -0.0086440475253192223 -0.025429738512528794 -leaf_weight=12.000000000000002 7 189 4.9999999999999973 14.999999999999998 5.0000000000000009 7.9999999999999982 19 149 285 4 381 4.9999999999999991 19 28 -leaf_count=12 7 189 5 15 5 8 19 149 285 4 381 5 19 28 -internal_value=-0.000314961 0.0142758 -0.00337356 0.00158424 0.0812831 7.19273e-05 0.00280833 -0.00951474 0.0109407 0.0841417 -0.0100629 -0.0595237 -0.0396059 -0.0497014 -internal_weight=1131 196 935 537 10 527 493 196 297 12 398 17 34 47 -internal_count=1131 196 935 537 10 527 493 196 297 12 398 17 34 47 -is_linear=0 -shrinkage=0.05 - - -end of trees - -feature_importances: -max_so_far=254 -actual_high_lag_1=153 -current_temp=140 -deb_prediction=117 -open_meteo=116 -ecmwf=64 -model_median=59 -actual_high_lag_7=53 -gem=51 -icon=51 -jma=50 -model_spread=50 -actual_high_trend_3=49 -gfs=39 -actual_high_lag_2=36 -wind_speed_kt=32 -nws=30 -actual_high_mean_7=28 -actual_high_lag_3=24 -actual_high_mean_14=24 -visibility_mi=10 -local_hour=10 -humidity=7 -weekday=7 -month=1 -peak_status_code=1 - -parameters: -[boosting: gbdt] -[objective: regression] -[metric: l1] -[tree_learner: serial] -[device_type: cpu] -[data_sample_strategy: bagging] -[data: ] -[valid: ] -[num_iterations: 104] -[learning_rate: 0.05] -[num_leaves: 15] -[num_threads: 0] -[seed: 42] -[deterministic: 0] -[force_col_wise: 0] -[force_row_wise: 0] -[histogram_pool_size: -1] -[max_depth: -1] -[min_data_in_leaf: 4] -[min_sum_hessian_in_leaf: 0.001] -[bagging_fraction: 0.9] -[pos_bagging_fraction: 1] -[neg_bagging_fraction: 1] -[bagging_freq: 1] -[bagging_seed: 400] -[bagging_by_query: 0] -[feature_fraction: 0.9] -[feature_fraction_bynode: 1] -[feature_fraction_seed: 30056] -[extra_trees: 0] -[extra_seed: 12879] -[early_stopping_round: 0] -[early_stopping_min_delta: 0] -[first_metric_only: 0] -[max_delta_step: 0] -[lambda_l1: 0] -[lambda_l2: 0] -[linear_lambda: 0] -[min_gain_to_split: 0] -[drop_rate: 0.1] -[max_drop: 50] -[skip_drop: 0.5] -[xgboost_dart_mode: 0] -[uniform_drop: 0] -[drop_seed: 17869] -[top_rate: 0.2] -[other_rate: 0.1] -[min_data_per_group: 100] -[max_cat_threshold: 32] -[cat_l2: 10] -[cat_smooth: 10] -[max_cat_to_onehot: 4] -[top_k: 20] -[monotone_constraints: ] -[monotone_constraints_method: basic] -[monotone_penalty: 0] -[feature_contri: ] -[forcedsplits_filename: ] -[refit_decay_rate: 0.9] -[cegb_tradeoff: 1] -[cegb_penalty_split: 0] -[cegb_penalty_feature_lazy: ] -[cegb_penalty_feature_coupled: ] -[path_smooth: 0] -[interaction_constraints: ] -[verbosity: -1] -[saved_feature_importance_type: 0] -[use_quantized_grad: 0] -[num_grad_quant_bins: 4] -[quant_train_renew_leaf: 0] -[stochastic_rounding: 1] -[linear_tree: 0] -[max_bin: 255] -[max_bin_by_feature: ] -[min_data_in_bin: 3] -[bin_construct_sample_cnt: 200000] -[data_random_seed: 175] -[is_enable_sparse: 1] -[enable_bundle: 1] -[use_missing: 1] -[zero_as_missing: 0] -[feature_pre_filter: 1] -[pre_partition: 0] -[two_round: 0] -[header: 0] -[label_column: ] -[weight_column: ] -[group_column: ] -[ignore_column: ] -[categorical_feature: ] -[forcedbins_filename: ] -[precise_float_parser: 0] -[parser_config_file: ] -[objective_seed: 16083] -[num_class: 1] -[is_unbalance: 0] -[scale_pos_weight: 1] -[sigmoid: 1] -[boost_from_average: 1] -[reg_sqrt: 0] -[alpha: 0.9] -[fair_c: 1] -[poisson_max_delta_step: 0.7] -[tweedie_variance_power: 1.5] -[lambdarank_truncation_level: 30] -[lambdarank_norm: 1] -[label_gain: ] -[lambdarank_position_bias_regularization: 0] -[eval_at: ] -[multi_error_top_k: 1] -[auc_mu_weights: ] -[num_machines: 1] -[local_listen_port: 12400] -[time_out: 120] -[machine_list_filename: ] -[machines: ] -[gpu_platform_id: -1] -[gpu_device_id: -1] -[gpu_use_dp: 0] -[num_gpu: 1] - -end of parameters - -pandas_categorical:null diff --git a/artifacts/models/lgbm_daily_high_schema.json b/artifacts/models/lgbm_daily_high_schema.json deleted file mode 100644 index 61cf167c..00000000 --- a/artifacts/models/lgbm_daily_high_schema.json +++ /dev/null @@ -1,66 +0,0 @@ -{ - "model_type": "LightGBMRegressor", - "target": "actual_high", - "horizon": "D0", - "feature_names": [ - "actual_high_lag_1", - "actual_high_lag_2", - "actual_high_lag_3", - "actual_high_lag_7", - "actual_high_mean_7", - "actual_high_mean_14", - "actual_high_trend_3", - "open_meteo", - "ecmwf", - "gfs", - "gem", - "jma", - "icon", - "mgm", - "nws", - "deb_prediction", - "model_median", - "model_spread", - "current_temp", - "max_so_far", - "humidity", - "wind_speed_kt", - "visibility_mi", - "local_hour", - "month", - "weekday", - "peak_status_code" - ], - "base_model_columns": [ - "open_meteo", - "ecmwf", - "gfs", - "gem", - "jma", - "icon", - "mgm", - "nws" - ], - "model_path": "artifacts\\models\\lgbm_daily_high.txt", - 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"confidence": 0.75 - }, - "lau fau shan": { - "samples": 19, - "mu_bias": 0.41371, - "sigma_scale": 0.656578, - "confidence": 1.0 - }, - "kuala lumpur": { - "samples": 16, - "mu_bias": 0.499197, - "sigma_scale": 1.361171, - "confidence": 1.0 - }, - "jakarta": { - "samples": 16, - "mu_bias": 0.293537, - "sigma_scale": 0.751498, - "confidence": 1.0 - }, - "lucknow": { - "samples": 22, - "mu_bias": -1.593437, - "sigma_scale": 2.0, - "confidence": 1.0 - }, - "karachi": { - "samples": 5, - "mu_bias": -0.035595, - "sigma_scale": 0.588612, - "confidence": 0.625 - }, - "jeddah": { - "samples": 10, - "mu_bias": 0.516879, - "sigma_scale": 2.0, - "confidence": 1.0 - }, - "moscow": { - "samples": 20, - "mu_bias": -0.609602, - "sigma_scale": 0.783723, - "confidence": 1.0 - }, - "tel aviv": { - "samples": 22, - "mu_bias": 0.436837, - "sigma_scale": 1.46524, - "confidence": 1.0 - } - }, - "metrics": { - "sample_count": 978, - "mean_crps": 1.330733, - "legacy_mean_crps": 1.376936, - "legacy_mean_mae": 1.589438, - 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"legacy_mean_mae": 0.15, - "emos_mean_mae": 0.118005, - "legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 1.0, - "emos_bucket_hit_rate": 1.0 - }, - "taipei": { - "samples": 5, - "legacy_mean_crps": 0.950739, - "emos_mean_crps": 1.042332, - "legacy_mean_mae": 0.94, - "emos_mean_mae": 0.951241, - "legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 0.6, - "emos_bucket_hit_rate": 0.6 - }, - "tel aviv": { - "samples": 2, - "legacy_mean_crps": 0.446758, - "emos_mean_crps": 0.578691, - "legacy_mean_mae": 0.3, - "emos_mean_mae": 0.116966, - "legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 1.0, - "emos_bucket_hit_rate": 1.0 - }, - "tokyo": { - "samples": 5, - "legacy_mean_crps": 0.879366, - "emos_mean_crps": 0.876608, - "legacy_mean_mae": 1.022, - "emos_mean_mae": 1.008317, - "legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 0.2, - "emos_bucket_hit_rate": 0.4 - }, - "toronto": { - "samples": 2, - "legacy_mean_crps": 5.497916, - "emos_mean_crps": 5.268783, - "legacy_mean_mae": 6.33, - "emos_mean_mae": 6.388522, - "legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 0.0, - "emos_bucket_hit_rate": 0.0 - }, - "warsaw": { - "samples": 3, - "legacy_mean_crps": 1.618875, - "emos_mean_crps": 1.524219, - "legacy_mean_mae": 2.056667, - "emos_mean_mae": 2.006524, - "legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 0.333333, - "emos_bucket_hit_rate": 0.333333 - }, - "wellington": { - "samples": 2, - "legacy_mean_crps": 0.364919, - "emos_mean_crps": 0.484124, - "legacy_mean_mae": 0.15, - "emos_mean_mae": 0.123335, - "legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 1.0, - "emos_bucket_hit_rate": 1.0 - }, - "wuhan": { - "samples": 1, - "legacy_mean_crps": 0.476225, - "emos_mean_crps": 0.578405, - "legacy_mean_mae": 0.8, - "emos_mean_mae": 0.962852, - "legacy_bucket_hit_rate": 0.0, - "emos_bucket_hit_rate": 0.0 - } - } -} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/artifacts/probability_calibration/rollout_report.json b/artifacts/probability_calibration/rollout_report.json deleted file mode 100644 index 3eafc829..00000000 --- a/artifacts/probability_calibration/rollout_report.json +++ /dev/null @@ -1,74 +0,0 @@ -{ - "evaluation_report_path": "E:\\web\\PolyWeather\\artifacts\\probability_calibration\\evaluation_report.json", - "shadow_report_path": "E:\\web\\PolyWeather\\artifacts\\probability_calibration\\shadow_report.json", - "evaluation_report_exists": true, - "shadow_report_exists": true, - "decision": { - "decision": "hold", - "ready_for_primary": false, - "summary": "当前指标不足以切换 emos_primary，应继续保持 shadow。", - "thresholds": { - "evaluation_min_samples": 80, - "shadow_min_samples": 50, - "max_delta_mae": 0.05, - "min_delta_crps": -0.02, - "min_delta_bucket_hit_rate": 0.0, - "max_delta_bucket_brier_promote": 0.02, - "max_delta_bucket_brier_observe": 0.15 - }, - "evaluation": { - "sample_count": 54, - "delta_crps": -0.086732, - "delta_mae": 0.0, - "delta_bucket_hit_rate": 0.0 - }, - "shadow": { - "sample_count": 48, - "delta_mae": 0.0, - "delta_bucket_hit_rate": 0.041666, - "delta_bucket_brier": 0.123252 - }, - "blocking_reasons": [ - "离线评估样本不足：54 < 80", - "shadow 样本不足：48 < 50", - "shadow bucket brier 退化超限：delta=0.123252" - ], - "worst_shadow_regressions": [ - { - "city": "dallas", - "samples": 1, - "delta_mae": 0.0, - "delta_bucket_hit_rate": 0.0, - "delta_bucket_brier": 0.792585 - }, - { - "city": "chicago", - "samples": 1, - "delta_mae": 0.0, - "delta_bucket_hit_rate": 0.0, - "delta_bucket_brier": 0.791878 - }, - { - "city": "seattle", - "samples": 1, - "delta_mae": 0.0, - "delta_bucket_hit_rate": 0.0, - "delta_bucket_brier": 0.61609 - }, - { - "city": "wellington", - "samples": 2, - "delta_mae": 0.0, - "delta_bucket_hit_rate": 0.0, - "delta_bucket_brier": 0.509203 - }, - { - "city": "tel aviv", - "samples": 2, - "delta_mae": 0.0, - "delta_bucket_hit_rate": 0.0, - "delta_bucket_brier": 0.439879 - } - ] - } -} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/artifacts/probability_calibration/settlement_history.json b/artifacts/probability_calibration/settlement_history.json deleted file mode 100644 index 50b73bc6..00000000 --- a/artifacts/probability_calibration/settlement_history.json +++ /dev/null @@ -1,140502 +0,0 @@ -{ - "ankara": { - "2023-01-01": { - "max_temp": 8.4, - "settlement_value": 8 - }, - "2023-01-02": { - 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"ens_median": 32.1, - "ensemble_spread": 1.3499999999999996, - "max_so_far_gap": null, - "peak_flag": 0.0, - "sample_source": "daily_record", - "settlement_source": null, - "settlement_station_code": null, - "truth_version": null, - "truth_updated_by": null, - "truth_updated_at": null - }, - { - "city": "taipei", - "date": "2026-03-17", - "actual_high": 26.7, - "raw_mu": 26.7, - "raw_sigma": 2.25, - "deb_prediction": 24.9, - "ens_median": 25.4, - "ensemble_spread": 2.25, - "max_so_far_gap": null, - "peak_flag": 0.0, - "sample_source": "daily_record", - "settlement_source": null, - "settlement_station_code": null, - "truth_version": null, - "truth_updated_by": null, - "truth_updated_at": null - }, - { - "city": "taipei", - "date": "2026-03-18", - "actual_high": 29.0, - "raw_mu": 29.0, - "raw_sigma": 1.0500000000000007, - "deb_prediction": 27.2, - "ens_median": 27.5, - "ensemble_spread": 1.0500000000000007, - "max_so_far_gap": null, - "peak_flag": 0.0, - "sample_source": "daily_record", - "settlement_source": null, - "settlement_station_code": null, - "truth_version": null, - "truth_updated_by": null, - "truth_updated_at": null - }, - { - "city": "taipei", - "date": "2026-03-19", - "actual_high": 22.0, - "raw_mu": 21.7, - "raw_sigma": 1.1500000000000004, - "deb_prediction": 21.5, - "ens_median": 21.3, - "ensemble_spread": 1.1500000000000004, - "max_so_far_gap": null, - "peak_flag": 0.0, - "sample_source": "daily_record", - "settlement_source": null, - "settlement_station_code": null, - "truth_version": null, - "truth_updated_by": null, - "truth_updated_at": null - }, - { - "city": "tel aviv", - "date": "2026-03-18", - "actual_high": 30.0, - "raw_mu": 30.3, - "raw_sigma": 2.1500000000000004, - "deb_prediction": 29.0, - "ens_median": 28.9, - "ensemble_spread": 2.1500000000000004, - "max_so_far_gap": null, - "peak_flag": 0.0, - "sample_source": "daily_record", - "settlement_source": null, - "settlement_station_code": null, - "truth_version": null, - "truth_updated_by": null, - "truth_updated_at": null - }, - { - "city": "tel aviv", - "date": "2026-03-19", - "actual_high": 21.0, - "raw_mu": 21.3, - "raw_sigma": 1.5, - "deb_prediction": 20.7, - "ens_median": 21.1, - "ensemble_spread": 1.5, - "max_so_far_gap": null, - "peak_flag": 0.0, - "sample_source": "daily_record", - "settlement_source": null, - "settlement_station_code": null, - "truth_version": null, - "truth_updated_by": null, - "truth_updated_at": null - }, - { - "city": "tokyo", - "date": "2026-03-18", - "actual_high": 17.0, - "raw_mu": 17.0, - "raw_sigma": 1.5499999999999998, - "deb_prediction": 15.4, - "ens_median": 15.8, - "ensemble_spread": 1.5499999999999998, - "max_so_far_gap": null, - "peak_flag": 0.0, - "sample_source": "daily_record", - "settlement_source": null, - "settlement_station_code": null, - "truth_version": null, - "truth_updated_by": null, - "truth_updated_at": null - }, - { - "city": "tokyo", - "date": "2026-03-19", - "actual_high": 16.0, - "raw_mu": 16.5, - "raw_sigma": 2.0999999999999996, - "deb_prediction": 17.8, - "ens_median": 18.5, - "ensemble_spread": 2.0999999999999996, - "max_so_far_gap": null, - "peak_flag": 0.0, - "sample_source": "daily_record", - "settlement_source": null, - "settlement_station_code": null, - "truth_version": null, - "truth_updated_by": null, - "truth_updated_at": null - }, - { - "city": "toronto", - "date": "2026-03-18", - "actual_high": -6.0, - "raw_mu": -1.01, - "raw_sigma": 0.8, - "deb_prediction": -0.6, - "ens_median": -1.1, - "ensemble_spread": 0.8, - "max_so_far_gap": null, - "peak_flag": 0.0, - "sample_source": "daily_record", - "settlement_source": null, - "settlement_station_code": null, - "truth_version": null, - "truth_updated_by": null, - "truth_updated_at": null - }, - { - "city": "toronto", - "date": "2026-03-19", - "actual_high": -2.0, - "raw_mu": 5.67, - "raw_sigma": 2.1500000000000004, - "deb_prediction": 6.4, - "ens_median": 6.3, - "ensemble_spread": 2.1500000000000004, - "max_so_far_gap": null, - "peak_flag": 0.0, - "sample_source": "daily_record", - "settlement_source": null, - "settlement_station_code": null, - "truth_version": null, - "truth_updated_by": null, - "truth_updated_at": null - }, - { - "city": "warsaw", - "date": "2026-03-17", - "actual_high": 11.0, - "raw_mu": 11.3, - "raw_sigma": 0.6499999999999995, - "deb_prediction": 10.4, - "ens_median": 10.5, - "ensemble_spread": 0.6499999999999995, - "max_so_far_gap": null, - "peak_flag": 0.0, - "sample_source": "daily_record", - "settlement_source": null, - "settlement_station_code": null, - "truth_version": null, - "truth_updated_by": null, - "truth_updated_at": null - }, - { - "city": "warsaw", - "date": "2026-03-18", - "actual_high": 13.0, - "raw_mu": 13.84, - "raw_sigma": 1.4000000000000004, - "deb_prediction": 13.6, - "ens_median": 14.2, - "ensemble_spread": 1.4000000000000004, - "max_so_far_gap": null, - "peak_flag": 0.0, - "sample_source": "daily_record", - "settlement_source": null, - "settlement_station_code": null, - "truth_version": null, - "truth_updated_by": null, - "truth_updated_at": null - }, - { - "city": "warsaw", - "date": "2026-03-19", - "actual_high": 7.0, - "raw_mu": 12.03, - "raw_sigma": 1.5999999999999996, - "deb_prediction": 11.8, - "ens_median": 12.3, - "ensemble_spread": 1.5999999999999996, - "max_so_far_gap": null, - "peak_flag": 0.0, - "sample_source": "daily_record", - "settlement_source": null, - "settlement_station_code": null, - "truth_version": null, - "truth_updated_by": null, - "truth_updated_at": null - }, - { - "city": "wellington", - "date": "2026-03-18", - "actual_high": 21.0, - "raw_mu": 21.0, - "raw_sigma": 0.9500000000000011, - "deb_prediction": 19.2, - "ens_median": 19.1, - "ensemble_spread": 0.9500000000000011, - "max_so_far_gap": null, - "peak_flag": 0.0, - "sample_source": "daily_record", - "settlement_source": null, - "settlement_station_code": null, - "truth_version": null, - "truth_updated_by": null, - "truth_updated_at": null - }, - { - "city": "wellington", - "date": "2026-03-19", - "actual_high": 18.0, - "raw_mu": 18.3, - "raw_sigma": 2.0999999999999996, - "deb_prediction": 17.9, - "ens_median": 17.1, - "ensemble_spread": 2.0999999999999996, - "max_so_far_gap": null, - "peak_flag": 0.0, - "sample_source": "daily_record", - "settlement_source": null, - "settlement_station_code": null, - "truth_version": null, - "truth_updated_by": null, - "truth_updated_at": null - } - ] -} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/frontend/components/dashboard/ProbabilityDistribution.tsx b/frontend/components/dashboard/ProbabilityDistribution.tsx index ad5eba5c..0c445648 100644 --- a/frontend/components/dashboard/ProbabilityDistribution.tsx +++ b/frontend/components/dashboard/ProbabilityDistribution.tsx @@ -841,17 +841,17 @@ export function ProbabilityDistribution({
{locale === "en-US" - ? "EMOS probability distribution" - : "EMOS 概率分布"} + ? "Probability distribution" + : "概率分布"} {marketContractRows.length > 0 ? locale === "en-US" - ? "market buckets are aggregated from single-degree EMOS buckets" - : "市场合约桶由单点 EMOS 概率聚合" + ? "market buckets are aggregated from single-degree probability buckets" + : "市场合约桶由单点概率分布聚合" : locale === "en-US" - ? "calibrated temperature buckets" - : "校准后的温度桶"} + ? "temperature probability buckets" + : "温度概率桶"}
{probabilityRows.length === 0 ? ( diff --git a/scripts/auto_retrain_probability_calibration.py b/scripts/auto_retrain_probability_calibration.py deleted file mode 100644 index 059cd70f..00000000 --- a/scripts/auto_retrain_probability_calibration.py +++ /dev/null @@ -1,359 +0,0 @@ -import argparse -import json -import os -import shutil -import subprocess -import sys -from datetime import datetime, timezone -from typing import Any, Dict, List, Optional - -PROJECT_ROOT = os.path.dirname(os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__))) -if PROJECT_ROOT not in sys.path: - sys.path.insert(0, PROJECT_ROOT) - -from src.analysis.probability_calibration import DEFAULT_CALIBRATION_FILE # noqa: E402 - - -ARTIFACT_DIR = os.path.join(PROJECT_ROOT, "artifacts", "probability_calibration") - - -def _runtime_calibration_dir() -> str: - runtime_dir = str(os.getenv("POLYWEATHER_RUNTIME_DATA_DIR") or "").strip() - if runtime_dir: - return os.path.join(runtime_dir, "probability_calibration") - return ARTIFACT_DIR - - -DEFAULT_CANDIDATE_ROOT = os.path.join(_runtime_calibration_dir(), "candidates") -DEFAULT_DECISION_REPORT = os.path.join( - _runtime_calibration_dir(), - "auto_retrain_report.json", -) - - -def _sf(value: Any) -> Optional[float]: - if value is None: - return None - try: - return float(value) - except Exception: - return None - - -def _env_float(name: str, default: float) -> float: - value = _sf(os.getenv(name)) - return value if value is not None else default - - -def _env_int(name: str, default: int) -> int: - value = _sf(os.getenv(name)) - return int(value) if value is not None else default - - -def _load_json(path: str) -> Dict[str, Any]: - try: - with open(path, "r", encoding="utf-8") as fh: - data = json.load(fh) - return data if isinstance(data, dict) else {} - except Exception: - return {} - - -def _write_json(path: str, payload: Dict[str, Any]) -> None: - output_dir = os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(path)) - if output_dir: - os.makedirs(output_dir, exist_ok=True) - with open(path, "w", encoding="utf-8") as fh: - json.dump(payload, fh, ensure_ascii=False, indent=2) - - -def _run_python(args: List[str], *, stream: bool = False) -> Dict[str, Any]: - command = [sys.executable, *args] - if stream: - completed = subprocess.run( - command, - cwd=PROJECT_ROOT, - text=True, - check=False, - ) - return { - "command": command, - "returncode": completed.returncode, - "stdout": "", - "stderr": "", - } - completed = subprocess.run( - command, - cwd=PROJECT_ROOT, - text=True, - capture_output=True, - check=False, - ) - return { - "command": command, - "returncode": completed.returncode, - "stdout": completed.stdout, - "stderr": completed.stderr, - } - - -def _append_blocker(blockers: List[str], condition: bool, message: str) -> None: - if condition: - blockers.append(message) - - -def judge_candidate( - evaluation_report: Dict[str, Any], - *, - min_samples: int, - max_delta_crps: float, - max_delta_mae: float, - min_delta_bucket_hit_rate: float, -) -> Dict[str, Any]: - summary = evaluation_report.get("summary") or {} - delta = summary.get("delta") or {} - sample_count = int(summary.get("sample_count") or 0) - delta_crps = _sf(delta.get("crps")) - delta_mae = _sf(delta.get("mae")) - delta_hit = _sf(delta.get("bucket_hit_rate")) - - blockers: List[str] = [] - _append_blocker( - blockers, - sample_count < min_samples, - f"sample_count {sample_count} < {min_samples}", - ) - _append_blocker( - blockers, - delta_crps is None or delta_crps > max_delta_crps, - f"delta_crps {delta_crps} > {max_delta_crps}", - ) - _append_blocker( - blockers, - delta_mae is None or delta_mae > max_delta_mae, - f"delta_mae {delta_mae} > {max_delta_mae}", - ) - _append_blocker( - blockers, - delta_hit is None or delta_hit < min_delta_bucket_hit_rate, - f"delta_bucket_hit_rate {delta_hit} < {min_delta_bucket_hit_rate}", - ) - - return { - "decision": "promote" if not blockers else "hold", - "ready_for_promotion": not blockers, - "blocking_reasons": blockers, - "thresholds": { - "min_samples": min_samples, - "max_delta_crps": max_delta_crps, - "max_delta_mae": max_delta_mae, - "min_delta_bucket_hit_rate": min_delta_bucket_hit_rate, - }, - "metrics": { - "sample_count": sample_count, - "delta_crps": delta_crps, - "delta_mae": delta_mae, - "delta_bucket_hit_rate": delta_hit, - }, - } - - -def _promote(candidate_path: str, target_path: str) -> str: - target_dir = os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(target_path)) - if target_dir: - os.makedirs(target_dir, exist_ok=True) - backup_path = os.path.join( - target_dir, - "default.backup-{ts}.json".format( - ts=datetime.now(timezone.utc).strftime("%Y%m%d%H%M%S") - ), - ) - if os.path.exists(target_path): - shutil.copy2(target_path, backup_path) - shutil.copy2(candidate_path, target_path) - return backup_path - - -def main() -> int: - parser = argparse.ArgumentParser( - description="Train an EMOS candidate, evaluate it, and optionally promote it behind gates." - ) - parser.add_argument("--candidate-root", default=DEFAULT_CANDIDATE_ROOT) - parser.add_argument("--target", default=DEFAULT_CALIBRATION_FILE) - parser.add_argument("--decision-output", default=DEFAULT_DECISION_REPORT) - parser.add_argument( - "--promote-if-passed", - action="store_true", - help="Copy the candidate over the active calibration file only if gates pass.", - ) - parser.add_argument( - "--run-tests", - action="store_true", - help="Run focused probability tests before promotion.", - ) - parser.add_argument( - "--verbose", - action="store_true", - help="Print child script progress while training and evaluating.", - ) - parser.add_argument( - "--snapshot-limit", - type=int, - default=_env_int("POLYWEATHER_EMOS_TRAINING_SNAPSHOT_LIMIT", 0), - help="Optional max number of recent probability snapshots to load from SQLite.", - ) - parser.add_argument( - "--min-samples", - type=int, - default=_env_int("POLYWEATHER_EMOS_AUTO_MIN_SAMPLES", 50), - ) - parser.add_argument( - "--max-delta-crps", - type=float, - default=_env_float("POLYWEATHER_EMOS_AUTO_MAX_DELTA_CRPS", 0.0), - help="Candidate EMOS CRPS may not be worse than legacy by more than this.", - ) - parser.add_argument( - "--max-delta-mae", - type=float, - default=_env_float("POLYWEATHER_EMOS_AUTO_MAX_DELTA_MAE", 0.05), - ) - parser.add_argument( - "--min-delta-bucket-hit-rate", - type=float, - default=_env_float("POLYWEATHER_EMOS_AUTO_MIN_DELTA_BUCKET_HIT_RATE", -0.05), - help="Soft guard only; bucket hit rate is boundary-sensitive.", - ) - args = parser.parse_args() - - version = "emos-auto-{ts}".format( - ts=datetime.now(timezone.utc).strftime("%Y%m%d%H%M%S") - ) - candidate_dir = os.path.join(args.candidate_root, version) - os.makedirs(candidate_dir, exist_ok=True) - candidate_path = os.path.join(candidate_dir, "default.json") - evaluation_path = os.path.join(candidate_dir, "evaluation_report.json") - decision_path = os.path.join(candidate_dir, "decision_report.json") - - fit_args = [ - "scripts/fit_probability_calibration.py", - "--output", - candidate_path, - "--version", - version, - ] - if args.verbose: - fit_args.append("--verbose") - if args.snapshot_limit and args.snapshot_limit > 0: - fit_args.extend(["--snapshot-limit", str(args.snapshot_limit)]) - fit_result = _run_python( - fit_args, - stream=args.verbose, - ) - if fit_result["returncode"] != 0: - payload = { - "ok": False, - "version": version, - "stage": "fit", - "fit": fit_result, - } - _write_json(decision_path, payload) - _write_json(args.decision_output, payload) - print(json.dumps(payload, ensure_ascii=False, indent=2)) - return fit_result["returncode"] or 1 - - eval_args = [ - "scripts/evaluate_probability_calibration.py", - "--calibration-file", - candidate_path, - "--output", - evaluation_path, - ] - if args.verbose: - eval_args.append("--verbose") - if args.snapshot_limit and args.snapshot_limit > 0: - eval_args.extend(["--snapshot-limit", str(args.snapshot_limit)]) - eval_result = _run_python( - eval_args, - stream=args.verbose, - ) - if eval_result["returncode"] != 0: - payload = { - "ok": False, - "version": version, - "stage": "evaluate", - "candidate_path": candidate_path, - "fit": fit_result, - "evaluate": eval_result, - } - _write_json(decision_path, payload) - _write_json(args.decision_output, payload) - print(json.dumps(payload, ensure_ascii=False, indent=2)) - return eval_result["returncode"] or 1 - - evaluation_report = _load_json(evaluation_path) - decision = judge_candidate( - evaluation_report, - min_samples=args.min_samples, - max_delta_crps=args.max_delta_crps, - max_delta_mae=args.max_delta_mae, - min_delta_bucket_hit_rate=args.min_delta_bucket_hit_rate, - ) - - test_result = None - if args.run_tests and decision["ready_for_promotion"]: - test_result = _run_python( - [ - "-m", - "pytest", - "tests/test_probability_calibration.py", - "tests/test_probability_rollout.py", - "tests/test_trend_engine.py", - ] - ) - if test_result["returncode"] != 0: - decision["decision"] = "hold" - decision["ready_for_promotion"] = False - decision.setdefault("blocking_reasons", []).append( - "focused tests failed" - ) - - promoted = False - backup_path = None - if args.promote_if_passed and decision["ready_for_promotion"]: - backup_path = _promote(candidate_path, args.target) - promoted = True - - payload = { - "ok": True, - "version": version, - "generated_at": datetime.now(timezone.utc).isoformat(), - "candidate_dir": candidate_dir, - "candidate_path": candidate_path, - "evaluation_path": evaluation_path, - "target_path": args.target, - "promote_requested": bool(args.promote_if_passed), - "promoted": promoted, - "backup_path": backup_path, - "decision": decision, - "fit": fit_result, - "evaluate": eval_result, - "tests": test_result, - } - _write_json(decision_path, payload) - _write_json(args.decision_output, payload) - print(json.dumps(payload["decision"], ensure_ascii=False, indent=2)) - print(f"candidate: {candidate_path}") - print(f"evaluation: {evaluation_path}") - print(f"decision: {decision_path}") - if promoted: - print(f"promoted to {args.target}; backup: {backup_path}") - elif args.promote_if_passed: - print("not promoted; gates did not pass") - else: - print("not promoted; run with --promote-if-passed to allow gated promotion") - return 0 - - -if __name__ == "__main__": - raise SystemExit(main()) diff --git a/scripts/build_probability_shadow_report.py b/scripts/build_probability_shadow_report.py deleted file mode 100644 index 73b67533..00000000 --- a/scripts/build_probability_shadow_report.py +++ /dev/null @@ -1,222 +0,0 @@ -import argparse -import json -import os -import sys -from collections import defaultdict -from datetime import datetime - -PROJECT_ROOT = os.path.dirname(os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__))) -if PROJECT_ROOT not in sys.path: - sys.path.insert(0, PROJECT_ROOT) - -from src.analysis.settlement_rounding import apply_city_settlement # noqa: E402 -from scripts.fit_probability_calibration import ( # noqa: E402 - _default_history_arg, - _load_history_with_fallback, -) - - -def _sf(value): - if value is None: - return None - try: - return float(value) - except Exception: - return None - - -def _mean(values): - return round(sum(values) / len(values), 6) if values else None - - -def _top_bucket(snapshot): - if not isinstance(snapshot, list): - return None - best = None - best_prob = -1.0 - for row in snapshot: - if not isinstance(row, dict): - continue - try: - prob = float(row.get("p") if "p" in row else row.get("probability")) - except Exception: - continue - value = row.get("v") if "v" in row else row.get("value") - if value is None: - continue - if prob > best_prob: - best = value - best_prob = prob - return best - - -def _bucket_probability(snapshot, target_bucket): - if not isinstance(snapshot, list): - return 0.0 - for row in snapshot: - if not isinstance(row, dict): - continue - value = row.get("v") if "v" in row else row.get("value") - if value != target_bucket: - continue - try: - return float(row.get("p") if "p" in row else row.get("probability") or 0.0) - except Exception: - return 0.0 - return 0.0 - - -def _brier_from_snapshot(snapshot, target_bucket): - hit_prob = _bucket_probability(snapshot, target_bucket) - total = (1.0 - hit_prob) ** 2 - if isinstance(snapshot, list): - for row in snapshot: - if not isinstance(row, dict): - continue - value = row.get("v") if "v" in row else row.get("value") - if value == target_bucket: - continue - try: - prob = float(row.get("p") if "p" in row else row.get("probability") or 0.0) - except Exception: - prob = 0.0 - total += prob * prob - return round(total, 6) - - -def _blank_metrics(): - return { - "samples": 0, - "legacy_mae": [], - "shadow_mae": [], - "legacy_bucket_hit": [], - "shadow_bucket_hit": [], - "legacy_bucket_brier": [], - "shadow_bucket_brier": [], - } - - -def _rollup(metrics): - return { - "samples": metrics["samples"], - "legacy_mean_mae": _mean(metrics["legacy_mae"]), - "shadow_mean_mae": _mean(metrics["shadow_mae"]), - "legacy_bucket_hit_rate": _mean(metrics["legacy_bucket_hit"]), - "shadow_bucket_hit_rate": _mean(metrics["shadow_bucket_hit"]), - "legacy_bucket_brier": _mean(metrics["legacy_bucket_brier"]), - "shadow_bucket_brier": _mean(metrics["shadow_bucket_brier"]), - "delta_mae": round((_mean(metrics["shadow_mae"]) or 0.0) - (_mean(metrics["legacy_mae"]) or 0.0), 6), - "delta_bucket_hit_rate": round((_mean(metrics["shadow_bucket_hit"]) or 0.0) - (_mean(metrics["legacy_bucket_hit"]) or 0.0), 6), - "delta_bucket_brier": round((_mean(metrics["shadow_bucket_brier"]) or 0.0) - (_mean(metrics["legacy_bucket_brier"]) or 0.0), 6), - } - - -def main(): - parser = argparse.ArgumentParser(description="Build live shadow probability report from daily records.") - parser.add_argument( - "--history-file", - default=_default_history_arg(), - ) - parser.add_argument( - "--output", - default=os.path.join( - PROJECT_ROOT, - "artifacts", - "probability_calibration", - "shadow_report.json", - ), - ) - args = parser.parse_args() - - history = _load_history_with_fallback(args.history_file) - overall = _blank_metrics() - by_city = defaultdict(_blank_metrics) - by_date = defaultdict(_blank_metrics) - latest_observations = [] - - for city, city_records in sorted(history.items()): - if not isinstance(city_records, dict): - continue - for date_str, record in sorted(city_records.items()): - if not isinstance(record, dict): - continue - actual_high = _sf(record.get("actual_high")) - shadow_snapshot = record.get("shadow_prob_snapshot") - calibration = record.get("probability_calibration") or {} - if actual_high is None or not shadow_snapshot: - continue - - legacy_mu = _sf(calibration.get("raw_mu")) - if legacy_mu is None: - legacy_mu = _sf(record.get("mu")) - shadow_mu = _sf(calibration.get("calibrated_mu")) - if shadow_mu is None: - continue - - actual_bucket = apply_city_settlement(city, actual_high) - legacy_snapshot = record.get("prob_snapshot") or [] - legacy_bucket = _top_bucket(legacy_snapshot) - shadow_bucket = _top_bucket(shadow_snapshot) - - for metrics in (overall, by_city[city], by_date[date_str]): - metrics["samples"] += 1 - metrics["legacy_mae"].append(abs(legacy_mu - actual_high)) - metrics["shadow_mae"].append(abs(shadow_mu - actual_high)) - metrics["legacy_bucket_hit"].append(1.0 if legacy_bucket == actual_bucket else 0.0) - metrics["shadow_bucket_hit"].append(1.0 if shadow_bucket == actual_bucket else 0.0) - metrics["legacy_bucket_brier"].append(_brier_from_snapshot(legacy_snapshot, actual_bucket)) - metrics["shadow_bucket_brier"].append(_brier_from_snapshot(shadow_snapshot, actual_bucket)) - - latest_observations.append( - { - "city": city, - "date": date_str, - "actual_high": actual_high, - "actual_bucket": actual_bucket, - "legacy_mu": round(legacy_mu, 3), - "shadow_mu": round(shadow_mu, 3), - "legacy_top_bucket": legacy_bucket, - "shadow_top_bucket": shadow_bucket, - "calibration_version": calibration.get("version"), - "calibration_mode": calibration.get("mode"), - } - ) - - by_city_report = { - city: _rollup(metrics) - for city, metrics in sorted(by_city.items()) - } - by_date_report = { - date_str: _rollup(metrics) - for date_str, metrics in sorted( - by_date.items(), - key=lambda item: datetime.strptime(item[0], "%Y-%m-%d"), - ) - } - - latest_observations = sorted( - latest_observations, - key=lambda row: (row["date"], row["city"]), - reverse=True, - )[:100] - - payload = { - "generated_at": datetime.utcnow().isoformat() + "Z", - "summary": _rollup(overall), - "by_city": by_city_report, - "by_date": by_date_report, - "recent_observations": latest_observations, - } - - output_dir = os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(args.output)) - if output_dir: - os.makedirs(output_dir, exist_ok=True) - with open(args.output, "w", encoding="utf-8") as fh: - json.dump(payload, fh, ensure_ascii=False, indent=2) - - print(json.dumps(payload["summary"], ensure_ascii=False, indent=2)) - print(f"saved shadow report to {args.output}") - - -if __name__ == "__main__": - main() diff --git a/scripts/evaluate_probability_calibration.py b/scripts/evaluate_probability_calibration.py deleted file mode 100644 index 4616fbba..00000000 --- a/scripts/evaluate_probability_calibration.py +++ /dev/null @@ -1,270 +0,0 @@ -import argparse -import json -import os -import sys -from collections import defaultdict - -PROJECT_ROOT = os.path.dirname(os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__))) -if PROJECT_ROOT not in sys.path: - sys.path.insert(0, PROJECT_ROOT) - -from src.analysis.probability_calibration import ( # noqa: E402 - ENGINE_MODE_EMOS_PRIMARY, - _gaussian_crps, - apply_probability_calibration, - build_probability_features, -) -from src.analysis.settlement_rounding import apply_city_settlement # noqa: E402 -from scripts.fit_probability_calibration import ( # noqa: E402 - _default_history_arg, - _extract_samples, - _load_history_with_fallback, - _load_json_if_exists, - _load_legacy_training_samples, - _load_snapshot_rows, - _load_training_feature_history, - _load_truth_history, - merge_samples_with_legacy_archive, -) - - -def _env_int(name, default=None): - try: - value = os.getenv(name) - if value is None or str(value).strip() == "": - return default - return int(value) - except Exception: - return default - - -def _log(enabled, message): - if enabled: - print(f"[evaluate_probability_calibration] {message}", flush=True) - - -def _mean(values): - return (sum(values) / len(values)) if values else None - - -def _sample_to_features(sample): - return build_probability_features( - city_name=sample.get("city") or "", - raw_mu=sample.get("raw_mu"), - raw_sigma=sample.get("raw_sigma"), - deb_prediction=sample.get("deb_prediction"), - ens_data={ - "median": sample.get("ens_median"), - "p10": None, - "p90": None, - }, - current_forecasts={}, - max_so_far=None, - peak_status="in_window" if sample.get("peak_flag") == 0.5 else "past" if sample.get("peak_flag") == 1.0 else "before", - local_hour_frac=None, - ) - - -def _top_bucket_value(distribution): - if not distribution: - return None - top = max( - (row for row in distribution if isinstance(row, dict)), - key=lambda row: float(row.get("probability") or 0.0), - default=None, - ) - if not top: - return None - return top.get("value") - - -def main(): - parser = argparse.ArgumentParser(description="Evaluate legacy vs EMOS probability calibration.") - parser.add_argument( - "--history-file", - default=_default_history_arg(), - ) - parser.add_argument( - "--settlement-history", - default=os.path.join( - PROJECT_ROOT, - "artifacts", - "probability_calibration", - "settlement_history.json", - ), - ) - parser.add_argument( - "--calibration-file", - default=os.path.join( - PROJECT_ROOT, - "artifacts", - "probability_calibration", - "default.json", - ), - ) - parser.add_argument( - "--output", - default=os.path.join( - PROJECT_ROOT, - "artifacts", - "probability_calibration", - "evaluation_report.json", - ), - ) - parser.add_argument( - "--snapshot-file", - default=None, - help="Optional legacy JSONL snapshot archive path. In sqlite mode this defaults to the runtime database.", - ) - parser.add_argument( - "--snapshot-limit", - type=int, - default=_env_int("POLYWEATHER_EMOS_TRAINING_SNAPSHOT_LIMIT"), - help="Optional max number of recent probability snapshots to load from SQLite.", - ) - parser.add_argument( - "--verbose", - action="store_true", - help="Print data loading and evaluation progress.", - ) - args = parser.parse_args() - - _log(args.verbose, "loading daily records") - history = _load_history_with_fallback(args.history_file) - _log(args.verbose, f"loaded daily record cities={len(history or {})}") - _log(args.verbose, "loading training feature history") - training_feature_history = _load_training_feature_history() - _log(args.verbose, f"loaded training feature cities={len(training_feature_history or {})}") - _log(args.verbose, "loading truth history") - truth_history = _load_truth_history() - _log(args.verbose, f"loaded truth cities={len(truth_history or {})}") - _log(args.verbose, "loading settlement history") - settlement_history = _load_json_if_exists(args.settlement_history) - _log(args.verbose, f"loaded settlement history cities={len(settlement_history or {})}") - _log( - args.verbose, - "loading probability snapshots" - + (f" limit={args.snapshot_limit}" if args.snapshot_limit else ""), - ) - snapshot_rows = _load_snapshot_rows(args.snapshot_file, limit=args.snapshot_limit) - _log(args.verbose, f"loaded probability snapshots={len(snapshot_rows or [])}") - _log(args.verbose, "loading legacy training archive") - legacy_training_samples = _load_legacy_training_samples() - _log(args.verbose, f"loaded legacy training samples={len(legacy_training_samples or [])}") - _log(args.verbose, "extracting evaluation samples") - samples, filled_actual_from_history = _extract_samples( - history, - training_feature_history=training_feature_history, - truth_history=truth_history, - settlement_history=settlement_history, - snapshot_rows=snapshot_rows, - ) - samples = merge_samples_with_legacy_archive(samples, legacy_training_samples) - _log(args.verbose, f"evaluating samples={len(samples or [])}") - - legacy_crps = [] - emos_crps = [] - legacy_mae = [] - emos_mae = [] - legacy_bucket_hits = [] - emos_bucket_hits = [] - by_city = defaultdict(lambda: { - "samples": 0, - "legacy_crps": [], - "emos_crps": [], - "legacy_mae": [], - "emos_mae": [], - "legacy_bucket_hits": [], - "emos_bucket_hits": [], - }) - - for sample in samples: - city = str(sample.get("city") or "").strip().lower() - actual_high = float(sample["actual_high"]) - raw_mu = float(sample["raw_mu"]) - raw_sigma = max(0.1, float(sample["raw_sigma"])) - legacy_crps.append(_gaussian_crps(actual_high, raw_mu, raw_sigma)) - legacy_mae.append(abs(raw_mu - actual_high)) - - legacy_bucket = apply_city_settlement(city, raw_mu) - actual_bucket = apply_city_settlement(city, actual_high) - legacy_bucket_hits.append(1.0 if legacy_bucket == actual_bucket else 0.0) - - calibration = apply_probability_calibration( - city_name=city, - temp_symbol="°F" if city in {"atlanta", "chicago", "dallas", "miami", "new york", "seattle"} else "°C", - raw_mu=raw_mu, - raw_sigma=raw_sigma, - max_so_far=None, - legacy_distribution=[], - features=_sample_to_features(sample), - calibration_path=args.calibration_file, - mode=ENGINE_MODE_EMOS_PRIMARY, - ) - emos_mu = float(calibration.get("calibrated_mu") or raw_mu) - emos_sigma = max(0.1, float(calibration.get("calibrated_sigma") or raw_sigma)) - emos_distribution = calibration.get("distribution") or [] - emos_crps.append(_gaussian_crps(actual_high, emos_mu, emos_sigma)) - emos_mae.append(abs(emos_mu - actual_high)) - emos_bucket = _top_bucket_value(emos_distribution) - emos_bucket_hits.append(1.0 if emos_bucket == actual_bucket else 0.0) - - row = by_city[city] - row["samples"] += 1 - row["legacy_crps"].append(legacy_crps[-1]) - row["emos_crps"].append(emos_crps[-1]) - row["legacy_mae"].append(legacy_mae[-1]) - row["emos_mae"].append(emos_mae[-1]) - row["legacy_bucket_hits"].append(legacy_bucket_hits[-1]) - row["emos_bucket_hits"].append(emos_bucket_hits[-1]) - - summary = { - "sample_count": len(samples), - "filled_actual_from_history": filled_actual_from_history, - "legacy": { - "mean_crps": round(_mean(legacy_crps), 6) if legacy_crps else None, - "mean_mae": round(_mean(legacy_mae), 6) if legacy_mae else None, - "bucket_hit_rate": round(_mean(legacy_bucket_hits), 6) if legacy_bucket_hits else None, - }, - "emos": { - "mean_crps": round(_mean(emos_crps), 6) if emos_crps else None, - "mean_mae": round(_mean(emos_mae), 6) if emos_mae else None, - "bucket_hit_rate": round(_mean(emos_bucket_hits), 6) if emos_bucket_hits else None, - }, - "delta": { - "crps": round((_mean(emos_crps) or 0.0) - (_mean(legacy_crps) or 0.0), 6), - "mae": round((_mean(emos_mae) or 0.0) - (_mean(legacy_mae) or 0.0), 6), - "bucket_hit_rate": round((_mean(emos_bucket_hits) or 0.0) - (_mean(legacy_bucket_hits) or 0.0), 6), - }, - } - - city_report = {} - for city, metrics in sorted(by_city.items()): - city_report[city] = { - "samples": metrics["samples"], - "legacy_mean_crps": round(_mean(metrics["legacy_crps"]), 6), - "emos_mean_crps": round(_mean(metrics["emos_crps"]), 6), - "legacy_mean_mae": round(_mean(metrics["legacy_mae"]), 6), - "emos_mean_mae": round(_mean(metrics["emos_mae"]), 6), - "legacy_bucket_hit_rate": round(_mean(metrics["legacy_bucket_hits"]), 6), - "emos_bucket_hit_rate": round(_mean(metrics["emos_bucket_hits"]), 6), - } - - payload = { - "summary": summary, - "by_city": city_report, - } - - output_dir = os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(args.output)) - if output_dir: - os.makedirs(output_dir, exist_ok=True) - with open(args.output, "w", encoding="utf-8") as fh: - json.dump(payload, fh, ensure_ascii=False, indent=2) - - print(json.dumps(summary, ensure_ascii=False, indent=2)) - print(f"saved evaluation report to {args.output}") - _log(args.verbose, "done") - - -if __name__ == "__main__": - main() diff --git a/scripts/export_probability_training_dataset.py b/scripts/export_probability_training_dataset.py deleted file mode 100644 index fd78138c..00000000 --- a/scripts/export_probability_training_dataset.py +++ /dev/null @@ -1,78 +0,0 @@ -import argparse -import json -import os -import sys - -PROJECT_ROOT = os.path.dirname(os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__))) -if PROJECT_ROOT not in sys.path: - sys.path.insert(0, PROJECT_ROOT) - -from scripts.fit_probability_calibration import ( # noqa: E402 - _default_history_arg, - _default_snapshot_arg, - _extract_samples, - _load_history_with_fallback, - _load_json_if_exists, - _load_snapshot_rows, -) - - -def main(): - parser = argparse.ArgumentParser(description="Export normalized probability calibration training samples.") - parser.add_argument( - "--history-file", - default=_default_history_arg(), - ) - parser.add_argument( - "--settlement-history", - default=os.path.join( - PROJECT_ROOT, - "artifacts", - "probability_calibration", - "settlement_history.json", - ), - ) - parser.add_argument( - "--output", - default=os.path.join( - PROJECT_ROOT, - "artifacts", - "probability_calibration", - "training_samples.json", - ), - ) - parser.add_argument( - "--snapshot-file", - default=_default_snapshot_arg(), - ) - args = parser.parse_args() - - history = _load_history_with_fallback(args.history_file) - settlement_history = _load_json_if_exists(args.settlement_history) - snapshot_rows = _load_snapshot_rows(args.snapshot_file) - samples, filled_actual_from_history = _extract_samples( - history, - settlement_history=settlement_history, - snapshot_rows=snapshot_rows, - ) - snapshot_count = sum(1 for sample in samples if sample.get("sample_source") == "snapshot") - daily_record_count = sum(1 for sample in samples if sample.get("sample_source") == "daily_record") - - output_dir = os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(args.output)) - if output_dir: - os.makedirs(output_dir, exist_ok=True) - payload = { - "sample_count": len(samples), - "snapshot_sample_count": snapshot_count, - "daily_record_sample_count": daily_record_count, - "filled_actual_from_history": filled_actual_from_history, - "samples": samples, - } - with open(args.output, "w", encoding="utf-8") as fh: - json.dump(payload, fh, ensure_ascii=False, indent=2) - - print(f"exported {len(samples)} samples to {args.output}") - - -if __name__ == "__main__": - main() diff --git a/scripts/fit_probability_calibration.py b/scripts/fit_probability_calibration.py deleted file mode 100644 index 0c2f73fc..00000000 --- a/scripts/fit_probability_calibration.py +++ /dev/null @@ -1,523 +0,0 @@ -import argparse -import json -import os -import sys -from datetime import datetime - -PROJECT_ROOT = os.path.dirname(os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__))) -if PROJECT_ROOT not in sys.path: - sys.path.insert(0, PROJECT_ROOT) - -from src.analysis.probability_calibration import ( # noqa: E402 - DEFAULT_CALIBRATION_FILE, - default_calibration_payload, - fit_calibration, -) -from src.analysis.deb_algorithm import load_history # noqa: E402 -from src.database.runtime_state import ( # noqa: E402 - DailyRecordRepository, - ProbabilitySnapshotRepository, - STATE_STORAGE_FILE, - STATE_STORAGE_SQLITE, - TrainingFeatureRecordRepository, - TruthRecordRepository, - get_state_storage_mode, -) - - -def _sf(value): - if value is None: - return None - try: - return float(value) - except Exception: - return None - - -def _env_int(name, default=None): - try: - value = os.getenv(name) - if value is None or str(value).strip() == "": - return default - return int(value) - except Exception: - return default - - -def _log(enabled, message): - if enabled: - print(f"[fit_probability_calibration] {message}", flush=True) - - -def _load_json_if_exists(path): - if not path or not os.path.exists(path): - return {} - with open(path, "r", encoding="utf-8") as fh: - data = json.load(fh) - return data if isinstance(data, dict) else {} - - -def _legacy_training_samples_path(): - return os.path.join( - PROJECT_ROOT, - "artifacts", - "probability_calibration", - "training_samples.json", - ) - - -def _legacy_history_path(): - return os.path.join(PROJECT_ROOT, "data", "daily_records.json") - - -def _legacy_snapshot_path(): - return os.path.join(PROJECT_ROOT, "data", "probability_training_snapshots.jsonl") - - -def _default_history_arg(): - return _legacy_history_path() if get_state_storage_mode() == STATE_STORAGE_FILE else None - - -def _default_snapshot_arg(): - return _legacy_snapshot_path() if get_state_storage_mode() == STATE_STORAGE_FILE else None - - -def _load_history_with_fallback(path): - if not path: - if get_state_storage_mode() == STATE_STORAGE_SQLITE: - return DailyRecordRepository().load_all() - return {} - data = _load_json_if_exists(path) - if data: - return data - return load_history(path) - - -def _load_truth_history(): - if get_state_storage_mode() != STATE_STORAGE_SQLITE: - return {} - try: - return TruthRecordRepository().load_all() - except Exception: - return {} - - -def _load_training_feature_history(): - if get_state_storage_mode() != STATE_STORAGE_SQLITE: - return {} - try: - return TrainingFeatureRecordRepository().load_all() - except Exception: - return {} - - -def _load_snapshot_rows(path, limit=None): - if get_state_storage_mode() == STATE_STORAGE_SQLITE: - repo = ProbabilitySnapshotRepository() - if limit is not None and int(limit) > 0: - with repo.db.connect() as conn: - rows = conn.execute( - """ - SELECT payload_json - FROM probability_training_snapshots_store - ORDER BY id DESC - LIMIT ? - """, - (int(limit),), - ).fetchall() - out = [] - for row in reversed(rows): - try: - out.append(json.loads(row["payload_json"])) - except Exception: - continue - return out - return repo.load_all_rows() - rows = [] - if not path or not os.path.exists(path): - return rows - with open(path, "r", encoding="utf-8") as fh: - for line in fh: - line = line.strip() - if not line: - continue - try: - row = json.loads(line) - except Exception: - continue - if isinstance(row, dict): - rows.append(row) - return rows - - -def _load_legacy_training_samples(path=None): - payload = _load_json_if_exists(path or _legacy_training_samples_path()) - rows = payload.get("samples") if isinstance(payload, dict) else None - if not isinstance(rows, list): - return [] - return [row for row in rows if isinstance(row, dict)] - - -def _actual_high_for(history, truth_history, settlement_history, city, date_str): - city_rows = (history or {}).get(city) or {} - record = city_rows.get(date_str) or {} - actual_high = _sf(record.get("actual_high")) if isinstance(record, dict) else None - truth_record = ((truth_history.get(city) or {}).get(date_str) or {}) - if actual_high is None and isinstance(truth_record, dict): - actual_high = _sf(truth_record.get("actual_high")) - filled = False - if actual_high is None: - actual_high = _sf(((settlement_history.get(city) or {}).get(date_str) or {}).get("max_temp")) - filled = actual_high is not None - metadata = { - "settlement_source": truth_record.get("settlement_source"), - "settlement_station_code": truth_record.get("settlement_station_code"), - "truth_version": truth_record.get("truth_version"), - "truth_updated_by": truth_record.get("updated_by"), - "truth_updated_at": truth_record.get("truth_updated_at"), - } - return actual_high, filled, metadata - - -def _extract_snapshot_samples(history, truth_history=None, snapshot_rows=None, settlement_history=None): - samples = [] - filled_actual_from_history = 0 - today = datetime.utcnow().strftime("%Y-%m-%d") - settlement_history = settlement_history or {} - - for row in snapshot_rows or []: - city = str(row.get("city") or "").strip().lower() - date_str = str(row.get("date") or "").strip() - if not city or not date_str or date_str == today: - continue - - actual_high, filled, truth_meta = _actual_high_for( - history, - truth_history or {}, - settlement_history, - city, - date_str, - ) - if actual_high is None: - continue - if filled: - filled_actual_from_history += 1 - - raw_mu = _sf(row.get("raw_mu")) - raw_sigma = _sf(row.get("raw_sigma")) - deb_prediction = _sf(row.get("deb_prediction")) - ensemble = row.get("ensemble") or {} - if not isinstance(ensemble, dict): - ensemble = {} - ens_median = _sf(ensemble.get("median")) - ensemble_spread = None - ens_p10 = _sf(ensemble.get("p10")) - ens_p90 = _sf(ensemble.get("p90")) - if ens_p10 is not None and ens_p90 is not None and ens_p90 >= ens_p10: - ensemble_spread = max(0.1, (ens_p90 - ens_p10) / 2.56) - multi_model = row.get("multi_model") or {} - if not isinstance(multi_model, dict): - multi_model = {} - forecast_values = [val for val in (_sf(v) for v in multi_model.values()) if val is not None] - forecast_values.sort() - if ensemble_spread is None: - if len(forecast_values) >= 2: - ensemble_spread = max(0.6, (forecast_values[-1] - forecast_values[0]) / 2.0) - elif raw_sigma is not None: - ensemble_spread = raw_sigma - else: - ensemble_spread = 1.0 - if raw_sigma is None: - raw_sigma = ensemble_spread - - peak_status = str(row.get("peak_status") or "before").strip().lower() - peak_flag = 0.0 - if peak_status == "in_window": - peak_flag = 0.5 - elif peak_status == "past": - peak_flag = 1.0 - - max_so_far = _sf(row.get("max_so_far")) - max_so_far_gap = None - if deb_prediction is not None and max_so_far is not None: - max_so_far_gap = deb_prediction - max_so_far - - if raw_mu is None: - continue - - samples.append( - { - "city": city, - "date": date_str, - "timestamp": row.get("timestamp"), - "actual_high": actual_high, - "raw_mu": raw_mu, - "raw_sigma": raw_sigma or 1.0, - "deb_prediction": deb_prediction, - "ens_median": ens_median if ens_median is not None else raw_mu, - "ensemble_spread": ensemble_spread, - "max_so_far_gap": max_so_far_gap, - "peak_flag": peak_flag, - "sample_source": "snapshot", - **truth_meta, - } - ) - - return samples, filled_actual_from_history - - -def _extract_daily_record_samples( - history, - training_feature_history=None, - truth_history=None, - settlement_history=None, - excluded_keys=None, -): - samples = [] - filled_actual_from_history = 0 - today = datetime.utcnow().strftime("%Y-%m-%d") - settlement_history = settlement_history or {} - excluded_keys = excluded_keys or set() - for city, city_rows in (history or {}).items(): - if not isinstance(city_rows, dict): - continue - city_settlement = settlement_history.get(city) or {} - for date_str, record in city_rows.items(): - if date_str == today or not isinstance(record, dict): - continue - if (city, date_str) in excluded_keys: - continue - actual_high = _sf(record.get("actual_high")) - truth_meta = ((truth_history or {}).get(city) or {}).get(date_str) or {} - if actual_high is None: - actual_high = _sf(truth_meta.get("actual_high")) - if actual_high is None: - actual_high = _sf((city_settlement.get(date_str) or {}).get("max_temp")) - if actual_high is not None: - filled_actual_from_history += 1 - feature_record = ((training_feature_history or {}).get(city) or {}).get(date_str) or {} - source_record = feature_record if isinstance(feature_record, dict) and feature_record else record - deb_prediction = _sf(source_record.get("deb_prediction")) - raw_mu = _sf(source_record.get("mu")) or deb_prediction - forecasts = source_record.get("forecasts") or {} - if not isinstance(forecasts, dict): - forecasts = {} - forecast_values = [val for val in (_sf(v) for v in forecasts.values()) if val is not None] - forecast_values.sort() - forecast_median = ( - forecast_values[len(forecast_values) // 2] if forecast_values else None - ) - feature_snapshot = source_record.get("probability_features") or {} - if not isinstance(feature_snapshot, dict): - feature_snapshot = {} - - ens_median = _sf(feature_snapshot.get("ens_median")) or forecast_median or raw_mu - ensemble_spread = _sf(feature_snapshot.get("ensemble_spread")) - if ensemble_spread is None: - if len(forecast_values) >= 2: - ensemble_spread = max(0.6, (forecast_values[-1] - forecast_values[0]) / 2.0) - else: - ensemble_spread = 1.0 - raw_sigma = _sf(feature_snapshot.get("raw_sigma")) or ensemble_spread or 1.0 - peak_status = str(feature_snapshot.get("peak_status") or "before").strip().lower() - peak_flag = 0.0 - if peak_status == "in_window": - peak_flag = 0.5 - elif peak_status == "past": - peak_flag = 1.0 - - if actual_high is None or raw_mu is None: - continue - - max_so_far = _sf(feature_snapshot.get("max_so_far")) - max_so_far_gap = _sf(feature_snapshot.get("max_so_far_gap")) - if max_so_far_gap is None and max_so_far is not None and deb_prediction is not None: - max_so_far_gap = deb_prediction - max_so_far - - samples.append( - { - "city": city, - "date": date_str, - "actual_high": actual_high, - "raw_mu": raw_mu, - "raw_sigma": raw_sigma, - "deb_prediction": deb_prediction, - "ens_median": ens_median, - "ensemble_spread": ensemble_spread, - "max_so_far_gap": max_so_far_gap, - "peak_flag": peak_flag, - "sample_source": "daily_record", - "settlement_source": truth_meta.get("settlement_source"), - "settlement_station_code": truth_meta.get("settlement_station_code"), - "truth_version": truth_meta.get("truth_version"), - "truth_updated_by": truth_meta.get("updated_by"), - "truth_updated_at": truth_meta.get("truth_updated_at"), - } - ) - return samples, filled_actual_from_history - - -def _extract_samples(history, training_feature_history=None, truth_history=None, settlement_history=None, snapshot_rows=None): - snapshot_samples, snapshot_filled = _extract_snapshot_samples( - history, - truth_history=truth_history, - snapshot_rows=snapshot_rows or [], - settlement_history=settlement_history, - ) - excluded_keys = { - (sample["city"], sample["date"]) - for sample in snapshot_samples - } - daily_samples, daily_filled = _extract_daily_record_samples( - history, - training_feature_history=training_feature_history, - truth_history=truth_history, - settlement_history=settlement_history, - excluded_keys=excluded_keys, - ) - return snapshot_samples + daily_samples, snapshot_filled + daily_filled - - -def merge_samples_with_legacy_archive(samples, legacy_samples=None): - merged = [] - seen = set() - for sample in samples or []: - if not isinstance(sample, dict): - continue - key = ( - str(sample.get("city") or "").strip().lower(), - str(sample.get("date") or "").strip(), - str(sample.get("sample_source") or "").strip().lower(), - ) - if not key[0] or not key[1]: - continue - if key in seen: - continue - merged.append(sample) - seen.add(key) - for sample in legacy_samples or []: - if not isinstance(sample, dict): - continue - key = ( - str(sample.get("city") or "").strip().lower(), - str(sample.get("date") or "").strip(), - str(sample.get("sample_source") or "").strip().lower(), - ) - if not key[0] or not key[1]: - continue - if key in seen: - continue - merged.append(sample) - seen.add(key) - return merged - - -def main(): - parser = argparse.ArgumentParser(description="Fit PolyWeather probability calibration parameters.") - parser.add_argument( - "--history-file", - default=_default_history_arg(), - help="Optional legacy daily_records.json path. In sqlite mode this defaults to the runtime database.", - ) - parser.add_argument( - "--output", - default=DEFAULT_CALIBRATION_FILE, - help="Output JSON file for fitted calibration parameters.", - ) - parser.add_argument( - "--settlement-history", - default=os.path.join( - PROJECT_ROOT, - "artifacts", - "probability_calibration", - "settlement_history.json", - ), - help="Optional daily settlement history JSON built from historical CSV files.", - ) - parser.add_argument( - "--snapshot-file", - default=_default_snapshot_arg(), - help="Optional legacy JSONL snapshot archive path. In sqlite mode this defaults to the runtime database.", - ) - parser.add_argument( - "--version", - default=None, - help="Optional explicit calibration version.", - ) - parser.add_argument( - "--snapshot-limit", - type=int, - default=_env_int("POLYWEATHER_EMOS_TRAINING_SNAPSHOT_LIMIT"), - help="Optional max number of recent probability snapshots to load from SQLite.", - ) - parser.add_argument( - "--verbose", - action="store_true", - help="Print data loading and fitting progress.", - ) - args = parser.parse_args() - - _log(args.verbose, "loading daily records") - history = _load_history_with_fallback(args.history_file) - _log(args.verbose, f"loaded daily record cities={len(history or {})}") - _log(args.verbose, "loading training feature history") - training_feature_history = _load_training_feature_history() - _log(args.verbose, f"loaded training feature cities={len(training_feature_history or {})}") - _log(args.verbose, "loading truth history") - truth_history = _load_truth_history() - _log(args.verbose, f"loaded truth cities={len(truth_history or {})}") - _log(args.verbose, "loading settlement history") - settlement_history = _load_json_if_exists(args.settlement_history) - _log(args.verbose, f"loaded settlement history cities={len(settlement_history or {})}") - _log( - args.verbose, - "loading probability snapshots" - + (f" limit={args.snapshot_limit}" if args.snapshot_limit else ""), - ) - snapshot_rows = _load_snapshot_rows(args.snapshot_file, limit=args.snapshot_limit) - _log(args.verbose, f"loaded probability snapshots={len(snapshot_rows or [])}") - _log(args.verbose, "loading legacy training archive") - legacy_training_samples = _load_legacy_training_samples() - _log(args.verbose, f"loaded legacy training samples={len(legacy_training_samples or [])}") - _log(args.verbose, "extracting EMOS samples") - samples, filled_actual_from_history = _extract_samples( - history, - training_feature_history=training_feature_history, - truth_history=truth_history, - settlement_history=settlement_history, - snapshot_rows=snapshot_rows, - ) - samples = merge_samples_with_legacy_archive(samples, legacy_training_samples) - _log(args.verbose, f"fitting calibration samples={len(samples or [])}") - calibration = fit_calibration(samples, version=args.version) - if not samples: - calibration = default_calibration_payload( - version=args.version, - reason="no_samples", - ) - calibration.setdefault("metrics", {}) - calibration["metrics"]["filled_actual_from_history"] = filled_actual_from_history - calibration["metrics"]["settlement_history_city_count"] = len(settlement_history) - calibration["metrics"]["legacy_archive_samples"] = len(legacy_training_samples) - try: - calibration["source"] = os.path.relpath(args.output, PROJECT_ROOT) - except ValueError: - calibration["source"] = os.path.abspath(args.output) - - output_dir = os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(args.output)) - if output_dir: - os.makedirs(output_dir, exist_ok=True) - with open(args.output, "w", encoding="utf-8") as fh: - json.dump(calibration, fh, ensure_ascii=False, indent=2) - - _log(args.verbose, "done") - print( - "saved calibration to {path} with {count} samples".format( - path=args.output, - count=calibration.get("metrics", {}).get("sample_count", 0), - ) - ) - - -if __name__ == "__main__": - main() diff --git a/scripts/judge_probability_rollout.py b/scripts/judge_probability_rollout.py deleted file mode 100644 index a06862b7..00000000 --- a/scripts/judge_probability_rollout.py +++ /dev/null @@ -1,56 +0,0 @@ -import argparse -import json -import os -import sys - -PROJECT_ROOT = os.path.dirname(os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__))) -if PROJECT_ROOT not in sys.path: - sys.path.insert(0, PROJECT_ROOT) - -from src.analysis.probability_rollout import build_rollout_report # noqa: E402 - - -def main(): - parser = argparse.ArgumentParser(description="Judge whether EMOS is ready for primary rollout.") - parser.add_argument( - "--evaluation-report", - default=os.path.join( - PROJECT_ROOT, - "artifacts", - "probability_calibration", - "evaluation_report.json", - ), - ) - parser.add_argument( - "--shadow-report", - default=os.path.join( - PROJECT_ROOT, - "artifacts", - "probability_calibration", - "shadow_report.json", - ), - ) - parser.add_argument( - "--output", - default=os.path.join( - PROJECT_ROOT, - "artifacts", - "probability_calibration", - "rollout_report.json", - ), - ) - args = parser.parse_args() - - payload = build_rollout_report(args.evaluation_report, args.shadow_report) - output_dir = os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(args.output)) - if output_dir: - os.makedirs(output_dir, exist_ok=True) - with open(args.output, "w", encoding="utf-8") as fh: - json.dump(payload, fh, ensure_ascii=False, indent=2) - - print(json.dumps(payload["decision"], ensure_ascii=False, indent=2)) - print(f"saved rollout report to {args.output}") - - -if __name__ == "__main__": - main() diff --git a/scripts/report_lgbm_daily_high.py b/scripts/report_lgbm_daily_high.py deleted file mode 100644 index 5ef2bfbb..00000000 --- a/scripts/report_lgbm_daily_high.py +++ /dev/null @@ -1,78 +0,0 @@ -from __future__ import annotations - -import json -import os -import sys -from typing import Any, Dict - - -ROOT_DIR = os.path.dirname(os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__))) -SCHEMA_PATH = os.path.join(ROOT_DIR, "artifacts", "models", "lgbm_daily_high_schema.json") - - -def _load_schema(path: str) -> Dict[str, Any]: - with open(path, "r", encoding="utf-8") as fh: - data = json.load(fh) - if not isinstance(data, dict): - raise SystemExit(f"Invalid schema payload in {path}") - return data - - -def _fmt_metric(value: Any) -> str: - if value is None: - return "--" - try: - return f"{float(value):.3f}" - except Exception: - return str(value) - - -def _winner(metrics: Dict[str, Any]) -> str: - candidates = { - "LGBM": metrics.get("lgbm_mae"), - "DEB": metrics.get("deb_mae"), - "Best Single": metrics.get("best_single_mae"), - "Median": metrics.get("median_mae"), - } - filtered = {k: float(v) for k, v in candidates.items() if v is not None} - if not filtered: - return "--" - return min(filtered.items(), key=lambda item: item[1])[0] - - -def _print_block(label: str, metrics: Dict[str, Any]) -> None: - print(label) - print(f" Samples : {metrics.get('sample_count', 0)}") - print(f" LGBM MAE : {_fmt_metric(metrics.get('lgbm_mae'))}") - print(f" DEB MAE : {_fmt_metric(metrics.get('deb_mae'))}") - print(f" Best Single : {_fmt_metric(metrics.get('best_single_mae'))}") - print(f" Model Median : {_fmt_metric(metrics.get('median_mae'))}") - print(f" Winner : {_winner(metrics)}") - - -def main() -> int: - path = sys.argv[1] if len(sys.argv) > 1 else SCHEMA_PATH - if not os.path.exists(path): - raise SystemExit(f"Schema file not found: {path}") - - schema = _load_schema(path) - metrics = schema.get("metrics") or {} - validation = metrics.get("validation") or {} - full_sample = metrics.get("full_sample") or {} - - print("LightGBM Daily High Report") - print(f" Target : {schema.get('target', '--')}") - print(f" Horizon : {schema.get('horizon', '--')}") - print(f" Sample Count : {schema.get('sample_count', 0)}") - print(f" Train Count : {schema.get('train_count', 0)}") - print(f" Valid Count : {schema.get('validation_count', 0)}") - print(f" Trained At : {schema.get('trained_at', '--')}") - print("") - _print_block("Validation", validation) - print("") - _print_block("Full Sample", full_sample) - return 0 - - -if __name__ == "__main__": - raise SystemExit(main()) diff --git a/scripts/train_lgbm_daily_high.py b/scripts/train_lgbm_daily_high.py deleted file mode 100644 index b31788f1..00000000 --- a/scripts/train_lgbm_daily_high.py +++ /dev/null @@ -1,202 +0,0 @@ -from __future__ import annotations - -import json -import os -import sys -from datetime import datetime -from typing import Any, Dict, List - -ROOT_DIR = os.path.dirname(os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__))) - - -MODEL_PATH = os.path.join(ROOT_DIR, "artifacts", "models", "lgbm_daily_high.txt") -SCHEMA_PATH = os.path.join(ROOT_DIR, "artifacts", "models", "lgbm_daily_high_schema.json") - - -def _mae(pairs: List[tuple[float, float]]) -> float | None: - if not pairs: - return None - return round(sum(abs(pred - actual) for pred, actual in pairs) / len(pairs), 3) - - -def _best_single_forecast(sample: Dict[str, Any]) -> float | None: - target = float(sample["target"]) - forecasts = sample.get("forecasts") or {} - best_value = None - best_error = None - for value in forecasts.values(): - try: - numeric = float(value) - except Exception: - continue - error = abs(numeric - target) - if best_error is None or error < best_error: - best_error = error - best_value = numeric - return best_value - - -def _chronological_split(samples: List[Dict[str, Any]]) -> tuple[List[Dict[str, Any]], List[Dict[str, Any]]]: - if len(samples) < 12: - return samples, [] - ordered = sorted(samples, key=lambda row: (row["date"], row["city"])) - validation_count = max(12, int(round(len(ordered) * 0.2))) - validation_count = min(validation_count, len(ordered) - 1) - if validation_count <= 0: - return ordered, [] - return ordered[:-validation_count], ordered[-validation_count:] - - -def _dataset_from_samples(samples: List[Dict[str, Any]], np: Any) -> tuple[Any, Any]: - features = np.asarray([row["vector"] for row in samples], dtype=np.float32) - targets = np.asarray([row["target"] for row in samples], dtype=np.float32) - return features, targets - - -def _train_model( - train_samples: List[Dict[str, Any]], - valid_samples: List[Dict[str, Any]], - lgb: Any, - np: Any, - feature_names: List[str], -) -> Any: - train_x, train_y = _dataset_from_samples(train_samples, np) - train_data = lgb.Dataset(train_x, label=train_y, feature_name=feature_names, free_raw_data=True) - valid_sets = [train_data] - valid_names = ["train"] - - params = { - "objective": "regression", - "metric": "l1", - "learning_rate": 0.05, - "num_leaves": 15, - "feature_fraction": 0.9, - "bagging_fraction": 0.9, - "bagging_freq": 1, - "min_data_in_leaf": 4, - "verbosity": -1, - "seed": 42, - } - - callbacks = [] - if valid_samples: - valid_x, valid_y = _dataset_from_samples(valid_samples, np) - valid_data = lgb.Dataset(valid_x, label=valid_y, feature_name=feature_names, reference=train_data) - valid_sets.append(valid_data) - valid_names.append("valid") - callbacks.append(lgb.early_stopping(stopping_rounds=15, verbose=False)) - - return lgb.train( - params=params, - train_set=train_data, - num_boost_round=120, - valid_sets=valid_sets, - valid_names=valid_names, - callbacks=callbacks, - ) - - -def _evaluate(booster: Any, samples: List[Dict[str, Any]], np: Any) -> Dict[str, Any]: - if not samples: - return { - "sample_count": 0, - "lgbm_mae": None, - "deb_mae": None, - "best_single_mae": None, - "median_mae": None, - } - - features, _ = _dataset_from_samples(samples, np) - preds = booster.predict(features, num_iteration=booster.best_iteration) - lgbm_pairs: List[tuple[float, float]] = [] - deb_pairs: List[tuple[float, float]] = [] - best_single_pairs: List[tuple[float, float]] = [] - median_pairs: List[tuple[float, float]] = [] - - for sample, pred in zip(samples, preds): - actual = float(sample["target"]) - lgbm_pairs.append((float(pred), actual)) - - deb_prediction = sample.get("deb_prediction") - if deb_prediction is not None: - deb_pairs.append((float(deb_prediction), actual)) - - best_single = _best_single_forecast(sample) - if best_single is not None: - best_single_pairs.append((best_single, actual)) - - median_prediction = (sample.get("features") or {}).get("model_median") - if median_prediction is not None: - median_pairs.append((float(median_prediction), actual)) - - return { - "sample_count": len(samples), - "lgbm_mae": _mae(lgbm_pairs), - "deb_mae": _mae(deb_pairs), - "best_single_mae": _mae(best_single_pairs), - "median_mae": _mae(median_pairs), - } - - -def main() -> int: - if ROOT_DIR not in sys.path: - sys.path.insert(0, ROOT_DIR) - - import lightgbm as lgb - import numpy as np - from src.models.lgbm_features import ( - FEATURE_NAMES, - build_training_samples, - schema_payload, - ) - - samples = build_training_samples() - if len(samples) < 16: - raise SystemExit(f"Not enough supervised samples for LightGBM training: {len(samples)}") - - train_samples, valid_samples = _chronological_split(samples) - booster = _train_model(train_samples, valid_samples, lgb, np, FEATURE_NAMES) - - all_features, all_targets = _dataset_from_samples(samples, np) - final_train = lgb.Dataset(all_features, label=all_targets, feature_name=FEATURE_NAMES, free_raw_data=True) - final_booster = lgb.train( - params={ - "objective": "regression", - "metric": "l1", - "learning_rate": 0.05, - "num_leaves": 15, - "feature_fraction": 0.9, - "bagging_fraction": 0.9, - "bagging_freq": 1, - "min_data_in_leaf": 4, - "verbosity": -1, - "seed": 42, - }, - train_set=final_train, - num_boost_round=max(int(booster.best_iteration or 60), 20), - ) - - os.makedirs(os.path.dirname(MODEL_PATH), exist_ok=True) - final_booster.save_model(MODEL_PATH) - - metrics = { - "validation": _evaluate(booster, valid_samples, np), - "full_sample": _evaluate(final_booster, samples, np), - } - schema = schema_payload( - model_path=os.path.relpath(MODEL_PATH, ROOT_DIR), - sample_count=len(samples), - train_count=len(train_samples), - validation_count=len(valid_samples), - metrics=metrics, - ) - schema["trained_at"] = datetime.utcnow().isoformat() + "Z" - with open(SCHEMA_PATH, "w", encoding="utf-8") as fh: - json.dump(schema, fh, ensure_ascii=False, indent=2) - - print(json.dumps({"model_path": MODEL_PATH, "schema_path": SCHEMA_PATH, "metrics": metrics}, ensure_ascii=False)) - return 0 - - -if __name__ == "__main__": - raise SystemExit(main()) diff --git a/src/analysis/probability_calibration.py b/src/analysis/probability_calibration.py deleted file mode 100644 index d1897f86..00000000 --- a/src/analysis/probability_calibration.py +++ /dev/null @@ -1,834 +0,0 @@ -from __future__ import annotations - -import json -import math -import os -from datetime import datetime, timezone -from typing import Any, Dict, Iterable, List, Optional, Tuple - -import numpy as np - -from src.analysis.settlement_rounding import apply_city_settlement, is_exact_settlement_city - -ENGINE_MODE_LEGACY = "legacy" -ENGINE_MODE_EMOS_SHADOW = "emos_shadow" -ENGINE_MODE_EMOS_PRIMARY = "emos_primary" -DEFAULT_ENGINE_MODE = ENGINE_MODE_EMOS_PRIMARY -VALID_ENGINE_MODES = { - ENGINE_MODE_LEGACY, - ENGINE_MODE_EMOS_SHADOW, - ENGINE_MODE_EMOS_PRIMARY, -} - -DEFAULT_CALIBRATION_FILE = os.path.join( - os.path.dirname(os.path.dirname(os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__)))), - "artifacts", - "probability_calibration", - "default.json", -) - -_CALIBRATION_CACHE: Dict[str, Dict[str, Any]] = {} -_CALIBRATION_MTIME: Dict[str, float] = {} - - -def _sf(value: Any) -> Optional[float]: - if value is None: - return None - try: - return float(value) - except Exception: - return None - - -def _coalesce_float(value: Any, default: float) -> float: - parsed = _sf(value) - return default if parsed is None else parsed - - -def _mean(values: Iterable[float]) -> Optional[float]: - values = list(values) - return (sum(values) / len(values)) if values else None - - -def resolve_probability_engine_mode(explicit_mode: Optional[str] = None) -> str: - mode = str( - explicit_mode - or os.getenv("POLYWEATHER_PROBABILITY_ENGINE") - or DEFAULT_ENGINE_MODE - ).strip().lower() - if mode not in VALID_ENGINE_MODES: - return DEFAULT_ENGINE_MODE - return mode - - -def load_calibration(calibration_path: Optional[str] = None) -> Dict[str, Any]: - path = str( - calibration_path - or os.getenv("POLYWEATHER_PROBABILITY_CALIBRATION_FILE") - or DEFAULT_CALIBRATION_FILE - ).strip() - if not path: - return {} - if not os.path.exists(path): - return {} - - try: - mtime = os.path.getmtime(path) - cached = _CALIBRATION_CACHE.get(path) - if cached and _CALIBRATION_MTIME.get(path) == mtime: - return cached - - with open(path, "r", encoding="utf-8") as fh: - data = json.load(fh) - if not isinstance(data, dict): - return {} - - _CALIBRATION_CACHE[path] = data - _CALIBRATION_MTIME[path] = mtime - return data - except Exception: - return {} - - -def build_probability_features( - city_name: str, - raw_mu: Optional[float], - raw_sigma: Optional[float], - deb_prediction: Optional[float], - ens_data: Optional[Dict[str, Any]], - current_forecasts: Optional[Dict[str, Any]], - max_so_far: Optional[float], - peak_status: str, - local_hour_frac: Optional[float], -) -> Dict[str, Any]: - ens_data = ens_data or {} - current_forecasts = current_forecasts or {} - forecast_values = [ - v for v in (_sf(val) for val in current_forecasts.values()) if v is not None - ] - forecast_values.sort() - forecast_median = None - if forecast_values: - forecast_median = forecast_values[len(forecast_values) // 2] - - ens_median = _sf(ens_data.get("median")) - ens_p10 = _sf(ens_data.get("p10")) - ens_p90 = _sf(ens_data.get("p90")) - - ensemble_spread = None - if ens_p10 is not None and ens_p90 is not None and ens_p90 >= ens_p10: - ensemble_spread = max(0.1, (ens_p90 - ens_p10) / 2.56) - elif len(forecast_values) >= 2: - ensemble_spread = max(0.6, (forecast_values[-1] - forecast_values[0]) / 2.0) - elif raw_sigma is not None: - ensemble_spread = max(0.1, raw_sigma) - - baseline = deb_prediction if deb_prediction is not None else raw_mu - max_so_far_gap = None - if baseline is not None and max_so_far is not None: - max_so_far_gap = baseline - max_so_far - - peak_flag = 0.0 - if peak_status == "in_window": - peak_flag = 0.5 - elif peak_status == "past": - peak_flag = 1.0 - - return { - "city": str(city_name or "").strip().lower(), - "raw_mu": raw_mu, - "raw_sigma": raw_sigma, - "deb_prediction": deb_prediction, - "ens_median": ens_median, - "ens_p10": ens_p10, - "ens_p90": ens_p90, - "forecast_median": forecast_median, - "forecast_spread": forecast_values[-1] - forecast_values[0] - if len(forecast_values) >= 2 - else None, - "ensemble_spread": ensemble_spread, - "max_so_far": max_so_far, - "max_so_far_gap": max_so_far_gap, - "peak_status": peak_status, - "peak_flag": peak_flag, - "local_hour_frac": local_hour_frac, - "model_count": len(forecast_values), - } - - -def _normal_cdf(x: float, mean: float, sigma: float) -> float: - return 0.5 * (1.0 + math.erf((x - mean) / (sigma * math.sqrt(2.0)))) - - -def _normal_pdf(x: float) -> float: - return math.exp(-(x ** 2) / 2.0) / math.sqrt(2.0 * math.pi) - - -def _bucket_probabilities( - mu: float, - sigma: float, - max_so_far: Optional[float], - city_name: str, -) -> Tuple[List[Dict[str, Any]], List[Tuple[int, float]], List[Dict[str, Any]]]: - sigma = max(0.1, float(sigma)) - min_possible = ( - apply_city_settlement(city_name, max_so_far) if max_so_far is not None else -999 - ) - probs: Dict[int, float] = {} - search_range = max(2, int(sigma * 2.5)) - is_exact = is_exact_settlement_city(city_name) - target_mu = apply_city_settlement(city_name, mu) - if is_exact: - target_mu = int(math.floor(mu)) - - for value in range(target_mu - search_range, target_mu + search_range + 1): - if value < min_possible: - continue - if is_exact: - prob = _normal_cdf(value + 1.0, mu, sigma) - _normal_cdf(value, mu, sigma) - else: - prob = _normal_cdf(value + 0.5, mu, sigma) - _normal_cdf(value - 0.5, mu, sigma) - if prob > 0.01: - probs[value] = prob - - total = sum(probs.values()) - if total <= 0: - return [], [], [] - - normalized = {key: val / total for key, val in probs.items()} - sorted_probs = sorted(normalized.items(), key=lambda item: item[1], reverse=True) - full_distribution = [] - for value, prob in sorted_probs: - if is_exact: - bucket_range = "[{0}.0~{1}.0)".format(value, value + 1) - else: - bucket_range = "[{0}~{1})".format(value - 0.5, value + 0.5) - full_distribution.append( - { - "value": int(value), - "range": bucket_range, - "probability": round(prob, 3), - } - ) - return full_distribution[:4], sorted_probs, full_distribution - - -def _top_bucket_value(distribution: Optional[List[Dict[str, Any]]]) -> Optional[int]: - if not distribution: - return None - top = max( - (row for row in distribution if isinstance(row, dict)), - key=lambda row: float(row.get("probability") or 0.0), - default=None, - ) - if not top: - return None - value = top.get("value") - return int(value) if value is not None else None - - -def _bucket_brier_score( - distribution: Optional[List[Dict[str, Any]]], - city_name: str, - actual_high: float, -) -> float: - actual_bucket = apply_city_settlement(city_name, actual_high) - hit_prob = 0.0 - total = 0.0 - for row in distribution or []: - if not isinstance(row, dict): - continue - value = row.get("value") - try: - prob = float(row.get("probability") or 0.0) - except Exception: - prob = 0.0 - if value == actual_bucket: - hit_prob = prob - else: - total += prob * prob - total += (1.0 - hit_prob) ** 2 - return total - - -def _composite_score( - mean_crps: float, - mean_mae: float, - bucket_hit_rate: float, - bucket_brier: float, -) -> float: - return mean_crps + 0.1 * mean_mae + 1.5 * (1.0 - bucket_hit_rate) + 0.75 * bucket_brier - - -def _blend_value(raw_value: float, calibrated_value: float, alpha: float) -> float: - return (1.0 - alpha) * raw_value + alpha * calibrated_value - - -def _clamp_sigma( - raw_sigma: float, - calibrated_sigma: float, - constraints: Optional[Dict[str, Any]], -) -> float: - constraints = constraints or {} - min_ratio = max(0.25, _coalesce_float(constraints.get("min_ratio"), 0.85)) - max_ratio = max(min_ratio, _coalesce_float(constraints.get("max_ratio"), 1.35)) - absolute_min = max(0.1, _coalesce_float(constraints.get("absolute_min"), 0.25)) - absolute_max = max( - absolute_min, - _coalesce_float(constraints.get("absolute_max"), raw_sigma * max_ratio), - ) - sigma_floor = max(absolute_min, raw_sigma * min_ratio) - sigma_cap = min(absolute_max, raw_sigma * max_ratio) - return min(max(calibrated_sigma, sigma_floor), sigma_cap) - - -def apply_probability_calibration( - city_name: str, - temp_symbol: str, - raw_mu: Optional[float], - raw_sigma: Optional[float], - max_so_far: Optional[float], - legacy_distribution: Optional[List[Dict[str, Any]]], - features: Optional[Dict[str, Any]] = None, - calibration_path: Optional[str] = None, - mode: Optional[str] = None, -) -> Dict[str, Any]: - selected_mode = resolve_probability_engine_mode(mode) - if raw_mu is None or raw_sigma is None: - return { - "mode": selected_mode, - "engine": ENGINE_MODE_LEGACY, - "distribution": legacy_distribution or [], - "distribution_all": legacy_distribution or [], - "shadow_distribution": [], - "shadow_distribution_all": [], - "raw_mu": raw_mu, - "raw_sigma": raw_sigma, - "calibrated_mu": None, - "calibrated_sigma": None, - "calibration_version": None, - "calibration_source": None, - } - - calibration = load_calibration(calibration_path) - if not calibration: - return { - "mode": selected_mode, - "engine": ENGINE_MODE_LEGACY, - "distribution": legacy_distribution or [], - "distribution_all": legacy_distribution or [], - "shadow_distribution": [], - "shadow_distribution_all": [], - "raw_mu": raw_mu, - "raw_sigma": raw_sigma, - "calibrated_mu": None, - "calibrated_sigma": None, - "calibration_version": None, - "calibration_source": None, - } - - features = features or {} - city_key = str(city_name or "").strip().lower() - global_params = calibration.get("global", {}) or {} - city_params = (calibration.get("cities", {}) or {}).get(city_key, {}) or {} - blending_cfg = calibration.get("blending", {}) or {} - sigma_constraints = calibration.get("sigma_constraints", {}) or {} - - mu_cfg = global_params.get("mu", {}) or {} - sigma_cfg = global_params.get("sigma", {}) or {} - city_confidence = max(0.0, min(1.0, _coalesce_float(city_params.get("confidence"), 1.0))) - city_mu_bias = _coalesce_float(city_params.get("mu_bias"), 0.0) * city_confidence - city_sigma_scale = 1.0 + ( - (_coalesce_float(city_params.get("sigma_scale"), 1.0) - 1.0) * city_confidence - ) - - deb_prediction = _sf(features.get("deb_prediction")) - ens_median = _sf(features.get("ens_median")) - max_so_far_gap = _sf(features.get("max_so_far_gap")) - peak_flag = _sf(features.get("peak_flag")) or 0.0 - ensemble_spread = _sf(features.get("ensemble_spread")) - - mu_intercept = _coalesce_float(mu_cfg.get("intercept"), 0.0) - mu_raw_coef = _coalesce_float(mu_cfg.get("raw_mu_coef"), 1.0) - mu_deb_coef = _coalesce_float(mu_cfg.get("deb_coef"), 0.0) - mu_ens_coef = _coalesce_float(mu_cfg.get("ens_median_coef"), 0.0) - mu_gap_coef = _coalesce_float(mu_cfg.get("max_so_far_gap_coef"), 0.0) - - sigma_intercept = _coalesce_float( - sigma_cfg.get("intercept"), - math.log(max(raw_sigma, 0.1)), - ) - sigma_raw_coef = _coalesce_float(sigma_cfg.get("raw_sigma_coef"), 1.0) - sigma_spread_coef = _coalesce_float(sigma_cfg.get("spread_coef"), 0.0) - sigma_peak_coef = _coalesce_float(sigma_cfg.get("peak_flag_coef"), 0.0) - sigma_gap_coef = _coalesce_float(sigma_cfg.get("max_so_far_gap_coef"), 0.0) - - calibrated_mu = ( - mu_intercept - + mu_raw_coef * raw_mu - + mu_deb_coef * (deb_prediction if deb_prediction is not None else raw_mu) - + mu_ens_coef * (ens_median if ens_median is not None else raw_mu) - + mu_gap_coef * (max_so_far_gap if max_so_far_gap is not None else 0.0) - + city_mu_bias - ) - sigma_log = ( - sigma_intercept - + sigma_raw_coef * math.log(max(raw_sigma, 0.1)) - + sigma_spread_coef * math.log(max(ensemble_spread or raw_sigma, 0.1)) - + sigma_peak_coef * peak_flag - + sigma_gap_coef * (max_so_far_gap if max_so_far_gap is not None else 0.0) - ) - calibrated_sigma = max(0.1, math.exp(sigma_log) * city_sigma_scale) - blend_alpha_mu = max(0.0, min(1.0, _coalesce_float(blending_cfg.get("alpha_mu"), 1.0))) - blend_alpha_sigma = max(0.0, min(1.0, _coalesce_float(blending_cfg.get("alpha_sigma"), 1.0))) - calibrated_mu = _blend_value(raw_mu, calibrated_mu, blend_alpha_mu) - if max_so_far is not None: - observed_floor = _sf(max_so_far) - if observed_floor is not None and calibrated_mu < observed_floor: - calibrated_mu = observed_floor - calibrated_sigma = max(0.1, _blend_value(raw_sigma, calibrated_sigma, blend_alpha_sigma)) - calibrated_sigma = _clamp_sigma(raw_sigma, calibrated_sigma, sigma_constraints) - calibrated_distribution, calibrated_sorted, calibrated_distribution_all = _bucket_probabilities( - calibrated_mu, - calibrated_sigma, - max_so_far=max_so_far, - city_name=city_key, - ) - - engine = ENGINE_MODE_LEGACY - selected_distribution = legacy_distribution or [] - selected_distribution_all = legacy_distribution or [] - selected_sorted: List[Tuple[int, float]] = [] - shadow_distribution: List[Dict[str, Any]] = [] - shadow_distribution_all: List[Dict[str, Any]] = [] - shadow_sorted: List[Tuple[int, float]] = [] - if selected_mode == ENGINE_MODE_EMOS_PRIMARY: - engine = "emos" - selected_distribution = calibrated_distribution - selected_distribution_all = calibrated_distribution_all - selected_sorted = calibrated_sorted - elif selected_mode == ENGINE_MODE_EMOS_SHADOW: - shadow_distribution = calibrated_distribution - shadow_distribution_all = calibrated_distribution_all - shadow_sorted = calibrated_sorted - - return { - "mode": selected_mode, - "engine": engine, - "distribution": selected_distribution, - "distribution_all": selected_distribution_all, - "selected_sorted_probs": selected_sorted, - "shadow_distribution": shadow_distribution, - "shadow_distribution_all": shadow_distribution_all, - "shadow_sorted_probs": shadow_sorted, - "raw_mu": raw_mu, - "raw_sigma": raw_sigma, - "calibrated_mu": calibrated_mu, - "calibrated_sigma": calibrated_sigma, - "blend_alpha_mu": blend_alpha_mu, - "blend_alpha_sigma": blend_alpha_sigma, - "calibration_version": calibration.get("version"), - "calibration_source": calibration.get("source") - or os.path.relpath( - calibration_path or DEFAULT_CALIBRATION_FILE, - os.path.dirname(os.path.dirname(os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__)))), - ), - } - - -def _gaussian_crps(observation: float, mean: float, sigma: float) -> float: - sigma = max(0.1, float(sigma)) - z = (observation - mean) / sigma - return sigma * ( - z * (2.0 * _normal_cdf(z, 0.0, 1.0) - 1.0) - + 2.0 * _normal_pdf(z) - - 1.0 / math.sqrt(math.pi) - ) - - -def _fit_linear(xs: np.ndarray, ys: np.ndarray) -> np.ndarray: - if len(xs) == 0: - return np.zeros(xs.shape[1], dtype=float) - coeffs, _, _, _ = np.linalg.lstsq(xs, ys, rcond=None) - return coeffs - - -def fit_calibration( - samples: Iterable[Dict[str, Any]], - version: Optional[str] = None, -) -> Dict[str, Any]: - normalized_samples: List[Dict[str, Any]] = [] - city_residuals: Dict[str, List[float]] = {} - city_sigma_ratios: Dict[str, List[float]] = {} - - for raw_sample in samples: - actual = _sf(raw_sample.get("actual_high")) - raw_mu = _sf(raw_sample.get("raw_mu")) - raw_sigma = _sf(raw_sample.get("raw_sigma")) - if actual is None or raw_mu is None or raw_sigma is None: - continue - feature_row = { - "city": str(raw_sample.get("city") or "").strip().lower(), - "actual_high": actual, - "raw_mu": raw_mu, - "raw_sigma": max(0.1, raw_sigma), - "deb_prediction": _sf(raw_sample.get("deb_prediction")), - "ens_median": _sf(raw_sample.get("ens_median")), - "ensemble_spread": _sf(raw_sample.get("ensemble_spread")), - "max_so_far_gap": _sf(raw_sample.get("max_so_far_gap")), - "peak_flag": _sf(raw_sample.get("peak_flag")) or 0.0, - } - normalized_samples.append(feature_row) - - if len(normalized_samples) < 3: - return default_calibration_payload(version=version, reason="insufficient_samples") - - mu_rows = [] - mu_targets = [] - for sample in normalized_samples: - deb = sample["deb_prediction"] if sample["deb_prediction"] is not None else sample["raw_mu"] - ens_median = sample["ens_median"] if sample["ens_median"] is not None else sample["raw_mu"] - gap = sample["max_so_far_gap"] if sample["max_so_far_gap"] is not None else 0.0 - mu_rows.append([1.0, sample["raw_mu"], deb, ens_median, gap]) - mu_targets.append(sample["actual_high"]) - - mu_coeffs = _fit_linear(np.array(mu_rows, dtype=float), np.array(mu_targets, dtype=float)) - - sigma_rows = [] - sigma_targets = [] - mu_predictions = [] - for idx, sample in enumerate(normalized_samples): - predicted_mu = float(np.dot(mu_coeffs, np.array(mu_rows[idx], dtype=float))) - mu_predictions.append(predicted_mu) - residual = max(abs(sample["actual_high"] - predicted_mu), 0.1) - spread = max(sample["ensemble_spread"] or sample["raw_sigma"], 0.1) - gap = sample["max_so_far_gap"] if sample["max_so_far_gap"] is not None else 0.0 - sigma_rows.append([1.0, math.log(sample["raw_sigma"]), math.log(spread), sample["peak_flag"], gap]) - sigma_targets.append(math.log(residual)) - city_residuals.setdefault(sample["city"], []).append(sample["actual_high"] - predicted_mu) - city_sigma_ratios.setdefault(sample["city"], []).append(residual / max(sample["raw_sigma"], 0.1)) - - sigma_coeffs = _fit_linear(np.array(sigma_rows, dtype=float), np.array(sigma_targets, dtype=float)) - - crps_values = [] - for idx, sample in enumerate(normalized_samples): - predicted_mu = mu_predictions[idx] - sigma_log = float(np.dot(sigma_coeffs, np.array(sigma_rows[idx], dtype=float))) - predicted_sigma = max(0.1, math.exp(sigma_log)) - crps_values.append(_gaussian_crps(sample["actual_high"], predicted_mu, predicted_sigma)) - - city_params: Dict[str, Dict[str, Any]] = {} - for city, residuals in city_residuals.items(): - if len(residuals) < 3: - continue - sigma_ratios = city_sigma_ratios.get(city) or [1.0] - confidence = max(0.25, min(1.0, len(residuals) / 8.0)) - city_params[city] = { - "samples": len(residuals), - "mu_bias": round(sum(residuals) / len(residuals), 6), - "sigma_scale": round( - max(0.5, min(2.0, sum(sigma_ratios) / len(sigma_ratios))), - 6, - ), - "confidence": round(confidence, 6), - } - - legacy_crps_values = [] - legacy_mae_values = [] - legacy_bucket_hits = [] - legacy_bucket_briers = [] - candidate_predictions = [] - for idx, sample in enumerate(normalized_samples): - city = sample["city"] - city_meta = city_params.get(city, {}) - city_confidence = max( - 0.0, - min(1.0, _coalesce_float(city_meta.get("confidence"), 1.0)), - ) - city_mu_bias = _coalesce_float(city_meta.get("mu_bias"), 0.0) * city_confidence - city_sigma_scale = 1.0 + ( - (_coalesce_float(city_meta.get("sigma_scale"), 1.0) - 1.0) * city_confidence - ) - - legacy_mu = sample["raw_mu"] - legacy_sigma = sample["raw_sigma"] - actual_high = sample["actual_high"] - legacy_crps_values.append(_gaussian_crps(actual_high, legacy_mu, legacy_sigma)) - legacy_mae_values.append(abs(legacy_mu - actual_high)) - legacy_bucket_hits.append( - 1.0 - if apply_city_settlement(city, legacy_mu) - == apply_city_settlement(city, actual_high) - else 0.0 - ) - legacy_distribution, _, _ = _bucket_probabilities( - legacy_mu, - legacy_sigma, - max_so_far=None, - city_name=city, - ) - legacy_bucket_briers.append( - _bucket_brier_score(legacy_distribution, city, actual_high) - ) - - calibrated_mu = mu_predictions[idx] + city_mu_bias - sigma_log = float(np.dot(sigma_coeffs, np.array(sigma_rows[idx], dtype=float))) - calibrated_sigma = max(0.1, math.exp(sigma_log) * city_sigma_scale) - candidate_predictions.append( - { - "city": city, - "actual_high": actual_high, - "raw_mu": legacy_mu, - "raw_sigma": legacy_sigma, - "calibrated_mu": calibrated_mu, - "calibrated_sigma": calibrated_sigma, - } - ) - - legacy_mean_crps = _mean(legacy_crps_values) or 0.0 - legacy_mean_mae = _mean(legacy_mae_values) or 0.0 - legacy_bucket_hit_rate = _mean(legacy_bucket_hits) or 0.0 - legacy_bucket_brier = _mean(legacy_bucket_briers) or 0.0 - sigma_constraints = { - "min_ratio": 0.85, - "max_ratio": 1.35, - "absolute_min": 0.25, - "absolute_max": 3.0, - } - legacy_score = _composite_score( - legacy_mean_crps, - legacy_mean_mae, - legacy_bucket_hit_rate, - legacy_bucket_brier, - ) - guardrails = { - "max_mae_increase": 0.02, - "max_bucket_hit_drop": 0.01, - "max_bucket_brier_increase": 0.05, - } - - best_alpha_mu = 0.0 - best_alpha_sigma = 0.0 - best_score = legacy_score - best_metrics = { - "mean_crps": legacy_mean_crps, - "mean_mae": legacy_mean_mae, - "bucket_hit_rate": legacy_bucket_hit_rate, - "bucket_brier": legacy_bucket_brier, - } - alpha_grid = [step / 20.0 for step in range(21)] - for alpha_mu in alpha_grid: - for alpha_sigma in alpha_grid: - crps_values = [] - mae_values = [] - bucket_hits = [] - bucket_briers = [] - for row in candidate_predictions: - mu_hat = _blend_value(row["raw_mu"], row["calibrated_mu"], alpha_mu) - sigma_hat = _clamp_sigma( - row["raw_sigma"], - max( - 0.1, - _blend_value(row["raw_sigma"], row["calibrated_sigma"], alpha_sigma), - ), - sigma_constraints, - ) - actual_high = row["actual_high"] - city = row["city"] - crps_values.append(_gaussian_crps(actual_high, mu_hat, sigma_hat)) - mae_values.append(abs(mu_hat - actual_high)) - distribution, _, _ = _bucket_probabilities( - mu_hat, - sigma_hat, - max_so_far=None, - city_name=city, - ) - predicted_bucket = _top_bucket_value(distribution) - actual_bucket = apply_city_settlement(city, actual_high) - bucket_hits.append(1.0 if predicted_bucket == actual_bucket else 0.0) - bucket_briers.append( - _bucket_brier_score(distribution, city, actual_high) - ) - - mean_crps = _mean(crps_values) or 0.0 - mean_mae = _mean(mae_values) or 0.0 - bucket_hit_rate = _mean(bucket_hits) or 0.0 - bucket_brier = _mean(bucket_briers) or 0.0 - if mean_mae > legacy_mean_mae + guardrails["max_mae_increase"]: - continue - if bucket_hit_rate + guardrails["max_bucket_hit_drop"] < legacy_bucket_hit_rate: - continue - if bucket_brier > legacy_bucket_brier + guardrails["max_bucket_brier_increase"]: - continue - score = _composite_score(mean_crps, mean_mae, bucket_hit_rate, bucket_brier) - if score + 1e-9 < best_score: - best_score = score - best_alpha_mu = alpha_mu - best_alpha_sigma = alpha_sigma - best_metrics = { - "mean_crps": mean_crps, - "mean_mae": mean_mae, - "bucket_hit_rate": bucket_hit_rate, - "bucket_brier": bucket_brier, - } - - return { - "version": version or datetime.now(timezone.utc).strftime("emos-%Y%m%d%H%M%S"), - "trained_at": datetime.now(timezone.utc).isoformat(), - "global": { - "mu": { - "intercept": round(float(mu_coeffs[0]), 8), - "raw_mu_coef": round(float(mu_coeffs[1]), 8), - "deb_coef": round(float(mu_coeffs[2]), 8), - "ens_median_coef": round(float(mu_coeffs[3]), 8), - "max_so_far_gap_coef": round(float(mu_coeffs[4]), 8), - }, - "sigma": { - "intercept": round(float(sigma_coeffs[0]), 8), - "raw_sigma_coef": round(float(sigma_coeffs[1]), 8), - "spread_coef": round(float(sigma_coeffs[2]), 8), - "peak_flag_coef": round(float(sigma_coeffs[3]), 8), - "max_so_far_gap_coef": round(float(sigma_coeffs[4]), 8), - }, - }, - "sigma_constraints": sigma_constraints, - "selection_guardrails": guardrails, - "blending": { - "alpha_mu": round(best_alpha_mu, 6), - "alpha_sigma": round(best_alpha_sigma, 6), - }, - "cities": city_params, - "metrics": { - "sample_count": len(normalized_samples), - "mean_crps": round(sum(crps_values) / len(crps_values), 6), - "legacy_mean_crps": round(legacy_mean_crps, 6), - "legacy_mean_mae": round(legacy_mean_mae, 6), - "legacy_bucket_hit_rate": round(legacy_bucket_hit_rate, 6), - "legacy_bucket_brier": round(legacy_bucket_brier, 6), - "selected_mean_crps": round(best_metrics["mean_crps"], 6), - "selected_mean_mae": round(best_metrics["mean_mae"], 6), - "selected_bucket_hit_rate": round(best_metrics["bucket_hit_rate"], 6), - "selected_bucket_brier": round(best_metrics["bucket_brier"], 6), - "selected_score": round(best_score, 6), - "legacy_score": round(legacy_score, 6), - }, - } - - -def default_calibration_payload( - version: Optional[str] = None, - reason: str = "bootstrap", -) -> Dict[str, Any]: - return { - "version": version or "emos-bootstrap-v1", - "trained_at": datetime.now(timezone.utc).isoformat(), - "global": { - "mu": { - "intercept": 0.0, - "raw_mu_coef": 1.0, - "deb_coef": 0.0, - "ens_median_coef": 0.0, - "max_so_far_gap_coef": 0.0, - }, - "sigma": { - "intercept": 0.0, - "raw_sigma_coef": 1.0, - "spread_coef": 0.0, - "peak_flag_coef": 0.0, - "max_so_far_gap_coef": 0.0, - }, - }, - "sigma_constraints": { - "min_ratio": 0.85, - "max_ratio": 1.35, - "absolute_min": 0.25, - "absolute_max": 3.0, - }, - "selection_guardrails": { - "max_mae_increase": 0.02, - "max_bucket_hit_drop": 0.01, - "max_bucket_brier_increase": 0.05, - }, - "blending": { - "alpha_mu": 1.0, - "alpha_sigma": 1.0, - }, - "cities": {}, - "metrics": { - "sample_count": 0, - "mean_crps": None, - "reason": reason, - }, - } - - -def check_calibration_drift(records: list[dict[str, Any]], calibration_path: str | None = None) -> dict[str, Any]: - """Compare recent CRPS against calibration baseline to detect drift. - - Returns a dict with keys: drifted (bool), current_crps (float), - baseline_crps (float), delta_pct (float), sample_count (int), warning (str|None). - A positive delta_pct means the model is performing worse than baseline. - """ - import json - import os - - if len(records) < 5: - return {"drifted": False, "sample_count": len(records), "warning": "Insufficient samples"} - - path = calibration_path or DEFAULT_CALIBRATION_FILE - baseline_crps = None - try: - with open(path, "r", encoding="utf-8") as fh: - json.load(fh) # calibration file - eval_path = os.path.join( - os.path.dirname(path) if os.path.dirname(path) else os.path.join(os.path.dirname(DEFAULT_CALIBRATION_FILE)), - "evaluation_report.json", - ) - with open(eval_path, "r", encoding="utf-8") as fh: - report = json.load(fh) - baseline_crps = float(report.get("metrics", {}).get("selected_mean_crps") or 0) or None - except Exception: - pass - - current_crps_values: list[float] = [] - for r in records: - actual = float(r.get("actual_high") or r.get("observed") or 0) - mu = float(r.get("deb_prediction") or r.get("mu") or 0) - sigma = float(r.get("sigma") or r.get("ensemble_std") or 2.0) - if actual and mu and sigma > 0: - current_crps_values.append(_gaussian_crps(actual, mu, sigma)) - - if not current_crps_values: - return {"drifted": False, "sample_count": 0, "warning": "No valid records for CRPS"} - - current_crps = round(sum(current_crps_values) / len(current_crps_values), 6) - - if baseline_crps is None or baseline_crps <= 0: - return { - "drifted": False, - "current_crps": current_crps, - "baseline_crps": baseline_crps, - "sample_count": len(records), - "warning": "No baseline available", - } - - delta_pct = round((current_crps - baseline_crps) / baseline_crps * 100, 1) - DRIFT_THRESHOLD_PCT = 15.0 # warn if CRPS degraded by >15% - - if delta_pct > DRIFT_THRESHOLD_PCT: - return { - "drifted": True, - "current_crps": current_crps, - "baseline_crps": baseline_crps, - "delta_pct": delta_pct, - "sample_count": len(records), - "warning": f"CRPS degraded {delta_pct}% vs baseline; consider re-running fit_calibration()", - } - - return { - "drifted": False, - "current_crps": current_crps, - "baseline_crps": baseline_crps, - "delta_pct": delta_pct, - "sample_count": len(records), - } diff --git a/src/analysis/probability_rollout.py b/src/analysis/probability_rollout.py deleted file mode 100644 index aea2919c..00000000 --- a/src/analysis/probability_rollout.py +++ /dev/null @@ -1,217 +0,0 @@ -from __future__ import annotations - -import json -import os -from typing import Any, Dict, List, Optional - - -def _load_json_file(path: str) -> Dict[str, Any]: - try: - with open(path, "r", encoding="utf-8") as fh: - data = json.load(fh) - return data if isinstance(data, dict) else {} - except Exception: - return {} - - -def _sf(value: Any) -> Optional[float]: - if value is None: - return None - try: - return float(value) - except Exception: - return None - - -def _append_reason(reasons: List[str], condition: bool, message: str) -> None: - if condition: - reasons.append(message) - - -def _top_shadow_regressions(by_city: Dict[str, Any], limit: int = 5) -> List[Dict[str, Any]]: - rows: List[Dict[str, Any]] = [] - for city, metrics in (by_city or {}).items(): - if not isinstance(metrics, dict): - continue - rows.append( - { - "city": city, - "samples": int(metrics.get("samples") or 0), - "delta_mae": _sf(metrics.get("delta_mae")), - "delta_bucket_hit_rate": _sf(metrics.get("delta_bucket_hit_rate")), - "delta_bucket_brier": _sf(metrics.get("delta_bucket_brier")), - } - ) - - rows.sort( - key=lambda row: ( - -(row["delta_bucket_brier"] or 0.0), - row["delta_bucket_hit_rate"] or 0.0, - -(row["delta_mae"] or 0.0), - ) - ) - return rows[:limit] - - -def judge_probability_rollout( - evaluation_report: Dict[str, Any], - shadow_report: Dict[str, Any], -) -> Dict[str, Any]: - thresholds = { - "evaluation_min_samples": 80, - "shadow_min_samples": 50, - "max_delta_mae": 0.05, - "min_delta_crps": -0.02, - "min_delta_bucket_hit_rate": 0.0, - "max_delta_bucket_brier_promote": 0.02, - "max_delta_bucket_brier_observe": 0.15, - } - - eval_summary = (evaluation_report or {}).get("summary") or {} - eval_delta = eval_summary.get("delta") or {} - shadow_summary = (shadow_report or {}).get("summary") or {} - - eval_samples = int(eval_summary.get("sample_count") or 0) - shadow_samples = int(shadow_summary.get("samples") or 0) - delta_crps = _sf(eval_delta.get("crps")) - delta_mae = _sf(eval_delta.get("mae")) - delta_hit = _sf(eval_delta.get("bucket_hit_rate")) - shadow_delta_mae = _sf(shadow_summary.get("delta_mae")) - shadow_delta_hit = _sf(shadow_summary.get("delta_bucket_hit_rate")) - shadow_delta_brier = _sf(shadow_summary.get("delta_bucket_brier")) - - promote_reasons: List[str] = [] - _append_reason( - promote_reasons, - eval_samples < thresholds["evaluation_min_samples"], - f"离线评估样本不足：{eval_samples} < {thresholds['evaluation_min_samples']}", - ) - _append_reason( - promote_reasons, - shadow_samples < thresholds["shadow_min_samples"], - f"shadow 样本不足：{shadow_samples} < {thresholds['shadow_min_samples']}", - ) - _append_reason( - promote_reasons, - delta_crps is None or delta_crps > thresholds["min_delta_crps"], - f"离线 CRPS 改善不足：delta={delta_crps}", - ) - _append_reason( - promote_reasons, - delta_mae is None or delta_mae > thresholds["max_delta_mae"], - f"离线 MAE 退化超限：delta={delta_mae}", - ) - _append_reason( - promote_reasons, - delta_hit is None or delta_hit < thresholds["min_delta_bucket_hit_rate"], - f"离线 bucket 命中率下降：delta={delta_hit}", - ) - _append_reason( - promote_reasons, - shadow_delta_mae is None or shadow_delta_mae > thresholds["max_delta_mae"], - f"shadow MAE 退化超限：delta={shadow_delta_mae}", - ) - _append_reason( - promote_reasons, - shadow_delta_hit is None or shadow_delta_hit < thresholds["min_delta_bucket_hit_rate"], - f"shadow bucket 命中率下降：delta={shadow_delta_hit}", - ) - _append_reason( - promote_reasons, - shadow_delta_brier is None - or shadow_delta_brier > thresholds["max_delta_bucket_brier_promote"], - f"shadow bucket brier 退化超限：delta={shadow_delta_brier}", - ) - - if not promote_reasons: - decision = "promote" - summary = "离线与 shadow 指标均达标，可以考虑切换 emos_primary。" - else: - observe_reasons: List[str] = [] - _append_reason( - observe_reasons, - eval_samples < thresholds["evaluation_min_samples"], - f"离线评估样本不足：{eval_samples}", - ) - _append_reason( - observe_reasons, - delta_crps is None or delta_crps > thresholds["min_delta_crps"], - f"离线 CRPS 改善不足：delta={delta_crps}", - ) - _append_reason( - observe_reasons, - delta_mae is None or delta_mae > thresholds["max_delta_mae"], - f"离线 MAE 退化超限：delta={delta_mae}", - ) - _append_reason( - observe_reasons, - delta_hit is None or delta_hit < thresholds["min_delta_bucket_hit_rate"], - f"离线 bucket 命中率下降：delta={delta_hit}", - ) - _append_reason( - observe_reasons, - shadow_samples < thresholds["shadow_min_samples"], - f"shadow 样本不足：{shadow_samples}", - ) - _append_reason( - observe_reasons, - shadow_delta_mae is None or shadow_delta_mae > thresholds["max_delta_mae"], - f"shadow MAE 退化超限：delta={shadow_delta_mae}", - ) - _append_reason( - observe_reasons, - shadow_delta_hit is None or shadow_delta_hit < thresholds["min_delta_bucket_hit_rate"], - f"shadow bucket 命中率下降：delta={shadow_delta_hit}", - ) - _append_reason( - observe_reasons, - shadow_delta_brier is None - or shadow_delta_brier > thresholds["max_delta_bucket_brier_observe"], - f"shadow bucket brier 退化偏大：delta={shadow_delta_brier}", - ) - - if not observe_reasons: - decision = "observe" - summary = "离线评估达标，但 shadow 仍需继续观察，暂不切主路径。" - else: - decision = "hold" - summary = "当前指标不足以切换 emos_primary，应继续保持 shadow。" - - return { - "decision": decision, - "ready_for_primary": decision == "promote", - "summary": summary, - "thresholds": thresholds, - "evaluation": { - "sample_count": eval_samples, - "delta_crps": delta_crps, - "delta_mae": delta_mae, - "delta_bucket_hit_rate": delta_hit, - }, - "shadow": { - "sample_count": shadow_samples, - "delta_mae": shadow_delta_mae, - "delta_bucket_hit_rate": shadow_delta_hit, - "delta_bucket_brier": shadow_delta_brier, - }, - "blocking_reasons": promote_reasons, - "worst_shadow_regressions": _top_shadow_regressions( - (shadow_report or {}).get("by_city") or {} - ), - } - - -def build_rollout_report( - evaluation_report_path: str, - shadow_report_path: str, -) -> Dict[str, Any]: - evaluation_report = _load_json_file(evaluation_report_path) - shadow_report = _load_json_file(shadow_report_path) - decision = judge_probability_rollout(evaluation_report, shadow_report) - return { - "evaluation_report_path": evaluation_report_path, - "shadow_report_path": shadow_report_path, - "evaluation_report_exists": os.path.exists(evaluation_report_path), - "shadow_report_exists": os.path.exists(shadow_report_path), - "decision": decision, - } diff --git a/src/analysis/probability_snapshot_archive.py b/src/analysis/probability_snapshot_archive.py deleted file mode 100644 index 9231ef99..00000000 --- a/src/analysis/probability_snapshot_archive.py +++ /dev/null @@ -1,297 +0,0 @@ -from __future__ import annotations - -import json -import os -from datetime import datetime -from typing import Any, Dict, List, Optional - -from src.database.runtime_state import ( - ProbabilitySnapshotRepository, - STATE_STORAGE_SQLITE, - TrainingFeatureRecordRepository, - get_state_storage_mode, -) - -DEDUP_SCAN_LINES = 200 -MU_THRESHOLD = 0.2 -SIGMA_THRESHOLD = 0.15 -MAX_SO_FAR_THRESHOLD = 0.2 -_snapshot_repo = ProbabilitySnapshotRepository() -_training_feature_repo = TrainingFeatureRecordRepository() - - -def _sf(value: Any) -> Optional[float]: - if value is None: - return None - try: - return float(value) - except Exception: - return None - - -def _compact_snapshot(distribution: Optional[List[Dict[str, Any]]]) -> List[Dict[str, Any]]: - compact: List[Dict[str, Any]] = [] - for row in distribution or []: - if not isinstance(row, dict): - continue - value = row.get("value") - probability = row.get("probability") - if value is None or probability is None: - continue - try: - compact.append( - { - "v": int(value), - "p": round(float(probability), 3), - } - ) - except Exception: - continue - if len(compact) >= 4: - break - return compact - - -def _top_bucket(snapshot: Optional[List[Dict[str, Any]]]) -> Optional[int]: - best_value = None - best_prob = -1.0 - for row in snapshot or []: - if not isinstance(row, dict): - continue - value = row.get("v") - prob = _sf(row.get("p")) - if value is None or prob is None: - continue - if prob > best_prob: - best_value = int(value) - best_prob = prob - return best_value - - -def _load_recent_rows(path: str, max_lines: int = DEDUP_SCAN_LINES) -> List[Dict[str, Any]]: - if not os.path.exists(path): - return [] - with open(path, "r", encoding="utf-8") as fh: - lines = fh.readlines()[-max_lines:] - rows = [] - for line in lines: - line = line.strip() - if not line: - continue - try: - row = json.loads(line) - except Exception: - continue - if isinstance(row, dict): - rows.append(row) - return rows - - -def load_snapshot_rows_for_day( - city_name: str, - target_date: str, - archive_path: Optional[str] = None, -) -> List[Dict[str, Any]]: - city_key = str(city_name or "").strip().lower() - date_key = str(target_date or "").strip() - if not city_key or not date_key: - return [] - - mode = get_state_storage_mode() - if mode == STATE_STORAGE_SQLITE: - return _snapshot_repo.load_rows_by_city_date(city_key, date_key) - - root_dir = os.path.dirname(os.path.dirname(os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__)))) - path = archive_path or os.path.join(root_dir, "data", "probability_training_snapshots.jsonl") - if not os.path.exists(path): - if mode == STATE_STORAGE_SQLITE: - return _snapshot_repo.load_rows_by_city_date(city_key, date_key) - return [] - - rows: List[Dict[str, Any]] = [] - try: - with open(path, "r", encoding="utf-8") as fh: - for line in fh: - line = line.strip() - if not line: - continue - try: - row = json.loads(line) - except Exception: - continue - if not isinstance(row, dict): - continue - if str(row.get("city") or "").strip().lower() != city_key: - continue - if str(row.get("date") or "").strip() != date_key: - continue - rows.append(row) - except Exception: - return [] - - rows.sort(key=lambda row: str(row.get("timestamp") or "")) - return rows - - -def _should_skip_append(path: str, payload: Dict[str, Any]) -> bool: - mode = get_state_storage_mode() - if mode == STATE_STORAGE_SQLITE: - recent_rows = _snapshot_repo.load_recent_rows( - str(payload.get("city") or ""), - str(payload.get("date") or ""), - DEDUP_SCAN_LINES, - ) - else: - recent_rows = _load_recent_rows(path) - city = payload.get("city") - date_str = payload.get("date") - if not city or not date_str: - return False - - for row in reversed(recent_rows): - if row.get("city") != city or row.get("date") != date_str: - continue - if row.get("peak_status") != payload.get("peak_status"): - return False - if row.get("probability_mode") != payload.get("probability_mode"): - return False - - current_top = _top_bucket(payload.get("prob_snapshot")) - previous_top = _top_bucket(row.get("prob_snapshot")) - current_shadow_top = _top_bucket(payload.get("shadow_prob_snapshot")) - previous_shadow_top = _top_bucket(row.get("shadow_prob_snapshot")) - if current_top != previous_top or current_shadow_top != previous_shadow_top: - return False - - if abs((_sf(payload.get("raw_mu")) or 0.0) - (_sf(row.get("raw_mu")) or 0.0)) > MU_THRESHOLD: - return False - if abs((_sf(payload.get("raw_sigma")) or 0.0) - (_sf(row.get("raw_sigma")) or 0.0)) > SIGMA_THRESHOLD: - return False - if abs((_sf(payload.get("max_so_far")) or 0.0) - (_sf(row.get("max_so_far")) or 0.0)) > MAX_SO_FAR_THRESHOLD: - return False - - return True - - return False - - -def append_probability_snapshot( - city_name: str, - *, - local_date: str, - observation_time: Optional[str], - temp_symbol: str, - raw_mu: Optional[float], - raw_sigma: Optional[float], - deb_prediction: Optional[float], - ens_data: Optional[Dict[str, Any]], - current_forecasts: Optional[Dict[str, Any]], - max_so_far: Optional[float], - current_temp: Optional[float] = None, - humidity: Optional[float] = None, - wind_speed_kt: Optional[float] = None, - visibility_mi: Optional[float] = None, - local_hour: Optional[float] = None, - peak_status: Optional[str], - probabilities: Optional[List[Dict[str, Any]]], - shadow_probabilities: Optional[List[Dict[str, Any]]], - calibration_summary: Optional[Dict[str, Any]], - archive_path: Optional[str] = None, -) -> None: - city_key = str(city_name or "").strip().lower() - if not city_key: - return - - root_dir = os.path.dirname(os.path.dirname(os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__)))) - path = archive_path or os.path.join( - root_dir, - "data", - "probability_training_snapshots.jsonl", - ) - - calibration_summary = calibration_summary or {} - ens_data = ens_data or {} - current_forecasts = current_forecasts or {} - timestamp = str(observation_time or datetime.utcnow().isoformat() + "Z").strip() - - payload = { - "city": city_key, - "timestamp": timestamp, - "date": local_date, - "temp_symbol": temp_symbol, - "raw_mu": _sf(raw_mu), - "raw_sigma": _sf(raw_sigma), - "deb_prediction": _sf(deb_prediction), - "ensemble": { - "p10": _sf(ens_data.get("p10")), - "median": _sf(ens_data.get("median")), - "p90": _sf(ens_data.get("p90")), - }, - "multi_model": { - key: _sf(value) - for key, value in current_forecasts.items() - if _sf(value) is not None - }, - "max_so_far": _sf(max_so_far), - "observation": { - "current_temp": _sf(current_temp), - "humidity": _sf(humidity), - "wind_speed_kt": _sf(wind_speed_kt), - "visibility_mi": _sf(visibility_mi), - "local_hour": _sf(local_hour), - }, - "peak_status": peak_status, - "prob_snapshot": _compact_snapshot(probabilities), - "shadow_prob_snapshot": _compact_snapshot(shadow_probabilities), - "probability_engine": calibration_summary.get("engine"), - "probability_mode": calibration_summary.get("mode"), - "calibration_version": calibration_summary.get("calibration_version"), - "calibration_source": calibration_summary.get("calibration_source"), - "calibrated_mu": _sf(calibration_summary.get("calibrated_mu")), - "calibrated_sigma": _sf(calibration_summary.get("calibrated_sigma")), - } - - parent = os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(path)) - if parent: - os.makedirs(parent, exist_ok=True) - - if _should_skip_append(path, payload): - return - - mode = get_state_storage_mode() - if mode == STATE_STORAGE_SQLITE: - _snapshot_repo.append_snapshot(payload) - _training_feature_repo.upsert_record( - city_key, - local_date, - { - "forecasts": payload.get("multi_model") or {}, - "deb_prediction": payload.get("deb_prediction"), - "mu": payload.get("raw_mu"), - "probability_features": { - "raw_mu": payload.get("raw_mu"), - "raw_sigma": payload.get("raw_sigma"), - "deb_prediction": payload.get("deb_prediction"), - "ens_median": (payload.get("ensemble") or {}).get("median"), - "ensemble_spread": None, - "max_so_far": payload.get("max_so_far"), - "peak_status": payload.get("peak_status"), - }, - "prob_snapshot": payload.get("prob_snapshot") or [], - "shadow_prob_snapshot": payload.get("shadow_prob_snapshot") or [], - "probability_calibration": { - "engine": payload.get("probability_engine"), - "mode": payload.get("probability_mode"), - "calibration_version": payload.get("calibration_version"), - "calibration_source": payload.get("calibration_source"), - "calibrated_mu": payload.get("calibrated_mu"), - "calibrated_sigma": payload.get("calibrated_sigma"), - }, - "observation": payload.get("observation") or {}, - "snapshot_timestamp": payload.get("timestamp"), - }, - ) - - if mode != STATE_STORAGE_SQLITE: - with open(path, "a", encoding="utf-8") as fh: - fh.write(json.dumps(payload, ensure_ascii=False) + "\n") diff --git a/src/analysis/trend_engine.py b/src/analysis/trend_engine.py index 5258fbea..7f10e515 100644 --- a/src/analysis/trend_engine.py +++ b/src/analysis/trend_engine.py @@ -15,11 +15,6 @@ from src.analysis.deb_algorithm import ( update_daily_record, _is_excluded_model_name, ) -from src.analysis.probability_calibration import ( - apply_probability_calibration, - build_probability_features, -) -from src.analysis.probability_snapshot_archive import append_probability_snapshot from src.analysis.settlement_rounding import apply_city_settlement, is_exact_settlement_city from src.data_collection.city_registry import CITY_REGISTRY from src.data_collection.city_risk_profiles import get_city_risk_profile @@ -595,20 +590,7 @@ def analyze_weather_trend( # === Probability Engine === probabilities: List[Dict[str, Any]] = [] probabilities_all: List[Dict[str, Any]] = [] - shadow_probabilities: List[Dict[str, Any]] = [] - shadow_probabilities_all: List[Dict[str, Any]] = [] forecast_miss_deg = 0.0 - probability_features = None - calibration_summary = { - "mode": "legacy", - "engine": "legacy", - "raw_mu": None, - "raw_sigma": sigma, - "calibrated_mu": None, - "calibrated_sigma": None, - "calibration_version": None, - "calibration_source": None, - } if is_dead_market: settled_wu = apply_city_settlement(city_name, max_so_far) if max_so_far is not None else 0 @@ -662,7 +644,7 @@ def analyze_weather_trend( f"实测最高 {max_so_far}{temp_symbol}，偏差 {forecast_miss_deg}°。当前趋势: {_trend_dir}。" ) - # Probability Engine + # Probability (legacy Gaussian buckets) probs_result = calculate_prob_distribution( mu, sigma, max_so_far, temp_symbol, city_name ) @@ -671,45 +653,6 @@ def analyze_weather_trend( probabilities_all = probs_result.get("probabilities_all", probabilities) sorted_probs = probs_result.get("sorted_probs", []) - probability_features = build_probability_features( - city_name=city_name or "", - raw_mu=mu, - raw_sigma=sigma, - deb_prediction=deb_prediction, - ens_data=ens_data, - current_forecasts=current_forecasts, - max_so_far=max_so_far, - peak_status=peak_status, - local_hour_frac=local_hour_frac, - ) - calibration_result = apply_probability_calibration( - city_name=city_name or "", - temp_symbol=temp_symbol, - raw_mu=mu, - raw_sigma=sigma, - max_so_far=max_so_far, - legacy_distribution=probabilities, - features=probability_features, - ) - calibration_summary = { - "mode": calibration_result.get("mode", "legacy"), - "engine": calibration_result.get("engine", "legacy"), - "raw_mu": calibration_result.get("raw_mu"), - "raw_sigma": calibration_result.get("raw_sigma"), - "calibrated_mu": calibration_result.get("calibrated_mu"), - "calibrated_sigma": calibration_result.get("calibrated_sigma"), - "calibration_version": calibration_result.get("calibration_version"), - "calibration_source": calibration_result.get("calibration_source"), - } - shadow_probabilities = calibration_result.get("shadow_distribution") or [] - shadow_probabilities_all = calibration_result.get("shadow_distribution_all") or shadow_probabilities - if calibration_result.get("engine") == "emos": - mu = calibration_result.get("calibrated_mu", mu) - sigma = calibration_result.get("calibrated_sigma", sigma) - probabilities = calibration_result.get("distribution") or probabilities - probabilities_all = calibration_result.get("distribution_all") or probabilities_all or probabilities - sorted_probs = calibration_result.get("selected_sorted_probs") or sorted_probs - if sorted_probs: prob_parts = [ f"{int(t)}{temp_symbol} [{t - 0.5}~{t + 0.5}) {p * 100:.0f}%" @@ -868,7 +811,6 @@ def analyze_weather_trend( # === Save daily record (with μ + prob snapshot) === try: _prob_list = None - _shadow_prob_list = None if sorted_probs: _prob_list = [ {"value": int(t), "probability": round(p, 3)} @@ -876,12 +818,6 @@ def analyze_weather_trend( ] elif is_dead_market and max_so_far is not None: _prob_list = [{"value": apply_city_settlement(city_name, max_so_far), "probability": 1.0}] - if shadow_probabilities: - _shadow_prob_list = [ - {"value": int(row.get("value")), "probability": round(float(row.get("probability") or 0.0), 3)} - for row in shadow_probabilities[:4] - if row.get("value") is not None - ] update_daily_record( city_name, @@ -891,34 +827,6 @@ def analyze_weather_trend( deb_prediction=_deb_to_save, mu=mu, probabilities=_prob_list, - probability_features=probability_features, - shadow_probabilities=_shadow_prob_list, - calibration_summary=calibration_summary, - ) - except Exception: - pass - - try: - append_probability_snapshot( - city_name=city_name or "", - local_date=local_date_str, - observation_time=obs_time_raw or local_time_full or None, - temp_symbol=temp_symbol, - raw_mu=calibration_summary.get("raw_mu"), - raw_sigma=calibration_summary.get("raw_sigma"), - deb_prediction=_deb_to_save, - ens_data=ens_data, - current_forecasts=current_forecasts, - max_so_far=max_so_far, - current_temp=cur_temp, - humidity=_sf(primary_current.get("humidity")), - wind_speed_kt=_sf(primary_current.get("wind_speed_kt")), - visibility_mi=_sf(primary_current.get("visibility_mi")), - local_hour=local_hour_frac, - peak_status=peak_status, - probabilities=_prob_list, - shadow_probabilities=_shadow_prob_list, - calibration_summary=calibration_summary, ) except Exception: pass @@ -933,16 +841,7 @@ def analyze_weather_trend( "mu": mu, "probabilities": probabilities, "probabilities_all": probabilities_all or probabilities, - "shadow_probabilities": shadow_probabilities, - "shadow_probabilities_all": shadow_probabilities_all or shadow_probabilities, - "probability_engine": calibration_summary["engine"], - "probability_calibration_mode": calibration_summary["mode"], - "probability_calibration_version": calibration_summary["calibration_version"], - "probability_calibration_source": calibration_summary["calibration_source"], - "probability_raw_mu": calibration_summary["raw_mu"], - "probability_raw_sigma": calibration_summary["raw_sigma"], - "probability_calibrated_mu": calibration_summary["calibrated_mu"], - "probability_calibrated_sigma": calibration_summary["calibrated_sigma"], + "probability_engine": "legacy", "trend_info": { "direction": trend_direction if 'trend_direction' in dir() else "unknown", "recent": recent_list, diff --git a/src/models/lgbm_daily_high.py b/src/models/lgbm_daily_high.py deleted file mode 100644 index 748c6659..00000000 --- a/src/models/lgbm_daily_high.py +++ /dev/null @@ -1,171 +0,0 @@ -from __future__ import annotations - -import json -import os -from typing import Any, Dict, List, Optional, Tuple - -from loguru import logger - -from src.models.lgbm_features import ( - FEATURE_NAMES, - build_runtime_feature_map, -) - -_MODEL_CACHE: Dict[str, Any] = {"path": None, "mtime": None, "booster": None} -_SCHEMA_CACHE: Dict[str, Any] = {"path": None, "mtime": None, "schema": None} - - -def _sf(value: Any) -> Optional[float]: - if value is None: - return None - try: - return float(value) - except Exception: - return None - - -def _truthy_env(name: str, default: str = "false") -> bool: - return str(os.getenv(name, default)).strip().lower() in {"1", "true", "yes", "on"} - - -def lgbm_model_path() -> str: - root = os.path.dirname(os.path.dirname(os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__)))) - return str( - os.getenv( - "POLYWEATHER_LGBM_MODEL_PATH", - os.path.join(root, "artifacts", "models", "lgbm_daily_high.txt"), - ) - ).strip() - - -def lgbm_schema_path() -> str: - root = os.path.dirname(os.path.dirname(os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__)))) - return str( - os.getenv( - "POLYWEATHER_LGBM_SCHEMA_PATH", - os.path.join(root, "artifacts", "models", "lgbm_daily_high_schema.json"), - ) - ).strip() - - -def lgbm_min_history_points() -> int: - try: - return max(1, int(os.getenv("POLYWEATHER_LGBM_MIN_HISTORY_POINTS", "3"))) - except Exception: - return 3 - - -def is_lgbm_enabled() -> bool: - return _truthy_env("POLYWEATHER_LGBM_ENABLED", "false") - - -def _load_schema(schema_path: str) -> Optional[Dict[str, Any]]: - if not schema_path or not os.path.exists(schema_path): - return None - mtime = os.path.getmtime(schema_path) - if ( - _SCHEMA_CACHE["schema"] is not None - and _SCHEMA_CACHE["path"] == schema_path - and _SCHEMA_CACHE["mtime"] == mtime - ): - return _SCHEMA_CACHE["schema"] - with open(schema_path, "r", encoding="utf-8") as fh: - data = json.load(fh) - if not isinstance(data, dict): - return None - _SCHEMA_CACHE.update({"path": schema_path, "mtime": mtime, "schema": data}) - return data - - -def _load_booster(model_path: str): - if not model_path or not os.path.exists(model_path): - return None - mtime = os.path.getmtime(model_path) - if ( - _MODEL_CACHE["booster"] is not None - and _MODEL_CACHE["path"] == model_path - and _MODEL_CACHE["mtime"] == mtime - ): - return _MODEL_CACHE["booster"] - try: - import lightgbm as lgb - except Exception as exc: - logger.warning(f"LGBM runtime dependency missing: {exc}") - return None - booster = lgb.Booster(model_file=model_path) - _MODEL_CACHE.update({"path": model_path, "mtime": mtime, "booster": booster}) - return booster - - -def _vector_from_features( - feature_map: Dict[str, Optional[float]], - schema: Optional[Dict[str, Any]], -) -> List[float]: - feature_names = schema.get("feature_names") if isinstance(schema, dict) else None - ordered_names = feature_names if isinstance(feature_names, list) and feature_names else FEATURE_NAMES - vector: List[float] = [] - for name in ordered_names: - value = feature_map.get(str(name)) - vector.append(float("nan") if value is None else float(value)) - return vector - - -def predict_lgbm_daily_high( - *, - city_name: str, - current_forecasts: Dict[str, Any], - deb_prediction: Optional[float], - current_temp: Optional[float], - max_so_far: Optional[float], - humidity: Optional[float], - wind_speed_kt: Optional[float], - visibility_mi: Optional[float], - local_hour: int, - local_date: str, - peak_status: str, - history_data: Optional[Dict[str, Any]] = None, -) -> Tuple[Optional[float], Dict[str, Any]]: - if not is_lgbm_enabled(): - return None, {"reason": "disabled"} - - schema = _load_schema(lgbm_schema_path()) - booster = _load_booster(lgbm_model_path()) - if schema is None or booster is None: - return None, {"reason": "artifact_missing"} - - feature_map, meta = build_runtime_feature_map( - city_name=city_name, - current_forecasts=current_forecasts, - deb_prediction=deb_prediction, - current_temp=current_temp, - max_so_far=max_so_far, - humidity=humidity, - wind_speed_kt=wind_speed_kt, - visibility_mi=visibility_mi, - local_hour=local_hour, - local_date=local_date, - peak_status=peak_status, - history_data=history_data, - ) - if not feature_map: - return None, meta - - if int(meta.get("history_count") or 0) < lgbm_min_history_points(): - return None, { - "reason": "insufficient_history", - "history_count": int(meta.get("history_count") or 0), - } - - try: - vector = _vector_from_features(feature_map, schema) - prediction = booster.predict([vector], num_iteration=booster.best_iteration) - value = _sf(prediction[0] if prediction is not None else None) - if value is None: - return None, {"reason": "empty_prediction"} - return round(float(value), 1), { - "reason": "ok", - "history_count": int(meta.get("history_count") or 0), - } - except Exception as exc: - logger.warning(f"LGBM prediction failed for {city_name}: {exc}") - return None, {"reason": "predict_failed", "error": str(exc)} diff --git a/src/models/lgbm_features.py b/src/models/lgbm_features.py deleted file mode 100644 index 3d994b43..00000000 --- a/src/models/lgbm_features.py +++ /dev/null @@ -1,472 +0,0 @@ -from __future__ import annotations - -import json -import os -from datetime import datetime -from statistics import mean -from typing import Any, Dict, List, Optional, Tuple - -from src.analysis.deb_algorithm import load_history -from src.data_collection.city_registry import ALIASES -from src.database.runtime_state import ( - DailyRecordRepository, - ProbabilitySnapshotRepository, - STATE_STORAGE_FILE, - STATE_STORAGE_SQLITE, - TrainingFeatureRecordRepository, - TruthRecordRepository, - get_state_storage_mode, -) - - -BASE_MODEL_COLUMNS: List[Tuple[str, str]] = [ - ("Open-Meteo", "open_meteo"), - ("ECMWF", "ecmwf"), - ("GFS", "gfs"), - ("GEM", "gem"), - ("JMA", "jma"), - ("ICON", "icon"), - ("MGM", "mgm"), - ("NWS", "nws"), -] - -FEATURE_NAMES: List[str] = [ - "actual_high_lag_1", - "actual_high_lag_2", - "actual_high_lag_3", - "actual_high_lag_7", - "actual_high_mean_7", - "actual_high_mean_14", - "actual_high_trend_3", - *[column for _, column in BASE_MODEL_COLUMNS], - "deb_prediction", - "model_median", - "model_spread", - "current_temp", - "max_so_far", - "humidity", - "wind_speed_kt", - "visibility_mi", - "local_hour", - "month", - "weekday", - "peak_status_code", -] - -PEAK_STATUS_CODES = { - "before": 0.0, - "in_window": 1.0, - "past": 2.0, -} - - -def _sf(value: Any) -> Optional[float]: - if value is None: - return None - try: - return float(value) - except Exception: - return None - - -def _parse_date(value: Any) -> Optional[datetime]: - text = str(value or "").strip() - if not text: - return None - try: - return datetime.strptime(text, "%Y-%m-%d") - except Exception: - return None - - -def _parse_timestamp(value: Any) -> Optional[datetime]: - text = str(value or "").strip() - if not text: - return None - try: - return datetime.fromisoformat(text.replace("Z", "+00:00")) - except Exception: - return None - - -def _history_file_path() -> str: - root = os.path.dirname(os.path.dirname(os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__)))) - if get_state_storage_mode() == STATE_STORAGE_FILE: - return os.path.join(root, "data", "daily_records.json") - return "" - - -def _snapshot_archive_path() -> str: - root = os.path.dirname(os.path.dirname(os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__)))) - if get_state_storage_mode() == STATE_STORAGE_FILE: - return os.path.join(root, "data", "probability_training_snapshots.jsonl") - return "" - - -def _normalized_city_key(city_name: str) -> str: - city_key = str(city_name or "").strip().lower() - return ALIASES.get(city_key, city_key) - - -def _safe_mean(values: List[Optional[float]]) -> Optional[float]: - valid = [float(v) for v in values if v is not None] - if not valid: - return None - return float(mean(valid)) - - -def _peak_status_code(value: Any) -> Optional[float]: - status = str(value or "").strip().lower() - if not status: - return None - return PEAK_STATUS_CODES.get(status, -1.0) - - -def _compute_model_summary(features: Dict[str, Optional[float]]) -> Tuple[Optional[float], Optional[float]]: - values = [ - features.get(column) - for _, column in BASE_MODEL_COLUMNS - if features.get(column) is not None - ] - values = [float(v) for v in values if v is not None] - if not values: - return None, None - ordered = sorted(values) - median_value = ordered[len(ordered) // 2] - spread_value = ordered[-1] - ordered[0] if len(ordered) >= 2 else 0.0 - return float(median_value), float(spread_value) - - -def load_snapshot_index(archive_path: Optional[str] = None) -> Dict[Tuple[str, str], Dict[str, Any]]: - mode = get_state_storage_mode() - if mode == STATE_STORAGE_SQLITE: - latest_rows: Dict[Tuple[str, str], Dict[str, Any]] = {} - for row in ProbabilitySnapshotRepository().load_all_rows(): - if not isinstance(row, dict): - continue - city = _normalized_city_key(str(row.get("city") or "")) - date_str = str(row.get("date") or "").strip() - if not city or not date_str: - continue - key = (city, date_str) - current_best = latest_rows.get(key) - if current_best is None or str(row.get("timestamp") or "") >= str( - current_best.get("timestamp") or "" - ): - latest_rows[key] = row - return latest_rows - - path = archive_path or _snapshot_archive_path() - if not path or not os.path.exists(path): - return {} - - latest_rows: Dict[Tuple[str, str], Dict[str, Any]] = {} - with open(path, "r", encoding="utf-8") as fh: - for line in fh: - line = line.strip() - if not line: - continue - try: - row = json.loads(line) - except Exception: - continue - if not isinstance(row, dict): - continue - city = _normalized_city_key(str(row.get("city") or "")) - date_str = str(row.get("date") or "").strip() - if not city or not date_str: - continue - key = (city, date_str) - current_best = latest_rows.get(key) - if current_best is None or str(row.get("timestamp") or "") >= str( - current_best.get("timestamp") or "" - ): - latest_rows[key] = row - return latest_rows - - -def _extract_history_rows( - history_data: Dict[str, Any], - city_name: str, - exclude_date: Optional[str] = None, -) -> List[Tuple[str, float]]: - city_key = _normalized_city_key(city_name) - city_rows = history_data.get(city_key) if isinstance(history_data, dict) else None - if not isinstance(city_rows, dict): - return [] - - rows: List[Tuple[str, float]] = [] - for date_str, record in city_rows.items(): - if exclude_date and str(date_str) >= str(exclude_date): - continue - if not isinstance(record, dict): - continue - actual = _sf(record.get("actual_high")) - if actual is None: - continue - rows.append((str(date_str), float(actual))) - rows.sort(key=lambda item: item[0]) - return rows - - -def _lag(values: List[float], distance: int) -> Optional[float]: - if len(values) < distance: - return None - return float(values[-distance]) - - -def build_runtime_feature_map( - *, - city_name: str, - current_forecasts: Dict[str, Any], - deb_prediction: Optional[float], - current_temp: Optional[float], - max_so_far: Optional[float], - humidity: Optional[float], - wind_speed_kt: Optional[float], - visibility_mi: Optional[float], - local_hour: int, - local_date: str, - peak_status: str, - history_data: Optional[Dict[str, Any]] = None, -) -> Tuple[Optional[Dict[str, Optional[float]]], Dict[str, Any]]: - data = history_data if isinstance(history_data, dict) else load_history(_history_file_path()) - history_rows = _extract_history_rows(data, city_name, exclude_date=local_date) - history_values = [value for _, value in history_rows] - - if not history_values: - return None, {"reason": "no_history", "history_count": 0} - - date_obj = _parse_date(local_date) - if date_obj is None: - return None, {"reason": "invalid_date", "history_count": len(history_values)} - - features: Dict[str, Optional[float]] = { - "actual_high_lag_1": _lag(history_values, 1), - "actual_high_lag_2": _lag(history_values, 2), - "actual_high_lag_3": _lag(history_values, 3), - "actual_high_lag_7": _lag(history_values, 7), - "actual_high_mean_7": _safe_mean(history_values[-7:]), - "actual_high_mean_14": _safe_mean(history_values[-14:]), - "actual_high_trend_3": ( - history_values[-1] - history_values[-3] if len(history_values) >= 3 else None - ), - "deb_prediction": _sf(deb_prediction), - "current_temp": _sf(current_temp), - "max_so_far": _sf(max_so_far), - "humidity": _sf(humidity), - "wind_speed_kt": _sf(wind_speed_kt), - "visibility_mi": _sf(visibility_mi), - "local_hour": float(local_hour), - "month": float(date_obj.month), - "weekday": float(date_obj.weekday()), - "peak_status_code": _peak_status_code(peak_status), - } - - for model_name, column in BASE_MODEL_COLUMNS: - features[column] = _sf(current_forecasts.get(model_name)) - - model_median, model_spread = _compute_model_summary(features) - features["model_median"] = model_median - features["model_spread"] = model_spread - - return features, { - "reason": "ok", - "history_count": len(history_values), - } - - -def _features_to_vector(features: Dict[str, Optional[float]], feature_names: Optional[List[str]] = None) -> List[float]: - ordered_names = feature_names or FEATURE_NAMES - vector: List[float] = [] - for name in ordered_names: - value = features.get(name) - vector.append(float("nan") if value is None else float(value)) - return vector - - -def build_training_samples( - history_data: Optional[Dict[str, Any]] = None, - snapshot_index: Optional[Dict[Tuple[str, str], Dict[str, Any]]] = None, -) -> List[Dict[str, Any]]: - mode = get_state_storage_mode() - if isinstance(history_data, dict): - runtime_history = history_data - elif mode == STATE_STORAGE_SQLITE: - runtime_history = DailyRecordRepository().load_all() - else: - runtime_history = load_history(_history_file_path()) - if isinstance(history_data, dict): - truth_history = runtime_history - training_feature_history = {} - elif mode == STATE_STORAGE_SQLITE: - truth_history = TruthRecordRepository().load_all() - training_feature_history = TrainingFeatureRecordRepository().load_all() - else: - truth_history = runtime_history - training_feature_history = {} - snapshots = snapshot_index if isinstance(snapshot_index, dict) else load_snapshot_index() - samples: List[Dict[str, Any]] = [] - excluded_keys: set[tuple[str, str]] = set() - - for (city_name, date_str), snapshot in (snapshots or {}).items(): - if not isinstance(snapshot, dict): - continue - truth_row = ((truth_history.get(city_name) or {}).get(str(date_str)) or {}) - target = _sf(truth_row.get("actual_high")) - if target is None: - runtime_record = ((runtime_history.get(city_name) or {}).get(str(date_str)) or {}) - target = _sf(runtime_record.get("actual_high")) - if target is None: - continue - observation = snapshot.get("observation") if isinstance(snapshot.get("observation"), dict) else {} - current_forecasts = snapshot.get("multi_model") if isinstance(snapshot.get("multi_model"), dict) else {} - local_hour = _sf(observation.get("local_hour")) - if local_hour is None: - timestamp = _parse_timestamp(snapshot.get("timestamp")) - local_hour = float(timestamp.hour) if timestamp is not None else 12.0 - feature_map, meta = build_runtime_feature_map( - city_name=city_name, - current_forecasts=current_forecasts, - deb_prediction=_sf(snapshot.get("deb_prediction")) or _sf(snapshot.get("raw_mu")), - current_temp=_sf(observation.get("current_temp")), - max_so_far=_sf(snapshot.get("max_so_far")), - humidity=_sf(observation.get("humidity")), - wind_speed_kt=_sf(observation.get("wind_speed_kt")), - visibility_mi=_sf(observation.get("visibility_mi")), - local_hour=int(local_hour), - local_date=str(date_str), - peak_status=str(snapshot.get("peak_status") or "before"), - history_data=truth_history, - ) - if not feature_map: - continue - samples.append( - { - "city": _normalized_city_key(city_name), - "date": str(date_str), - "target": float(target), - "features": feature_map, - "vector": _features_to_vector(feature_map), - "history_count": int(meta.get("history_count") or 0), - "deb_prediction": _sf(snapshot.get("deb_prediction")) or _sf(snapshot.get("raw_mu")), - "forecasts": { - key: _sf(value) - for key, value in current_forecasts.items() - if _sf(value) is not None - }, - "sample_source": "snapshot", - "settlement_source": truth_row.get("settlement_source"), - "settlement_station_code": truth_row.get("settlement_station_code"), - "truth_version": truth_row.get("truth_version"), - "truth_updated_by": truth_row.get("updated_by"), - "truth_updated_at": truth_row.get("truth_updated_at"), - } - ) - excluded_keys.add((_normalized_city_key(city_name), str(date_str))) - - training_source = training_feature_history or runtime_history or {} - for city_name, city_records in training_source.items(): - if not isinstance(city_records, dict): - continue - ordered_dates = sorted(city_records.keys()) - for date_str in ordered_dates: - normalized_city = _normalized_city_key(city_name) - if (normalized_city, str(date_str)) in excluded_keys: - continue - record = city_records.get(date_str) - if not isinstance(record, dict): - continue - truth_row = ((truth_history.get(normalized_city) or {}).get(str(date_str)) or {}) - target = _sf(truth_row.get("actual_high")) - if target is None: - target = _sf(((runtime_history.get(normalized_city) or {}).get(str(date_str)) or {}).get("actual_high")) - forecasts = record.get("forecasts") if isinstance(record.get("forecasts"), dict) else {} - if target is None or not forecasts: - continue - - feature_map, meta = build_runtime_feature_map( - city_name=city_name, - current_forecasts=forecasts, - deb_prediction=_sf(record.get("deb_prediction")), - current_temp=None, - max_so_far=None, - humidity=None, - wind_speed_kt=None, - visibility_mi=None, - local_hour=12, - local_date=str(date_str), - peak_status="before", - history_data=truth_history, - ) - if not feature_map: - continue - - snapshot = snapshots.get((_normalized_city_key(city_name), str(date_str))) or {} - observation = snapshot.get("observation") if isinstance(snapshot.get("observation"), dict) else {} - feature_map["max_so_far"] = _sf(snapshot.get("max_so_far")) - feature_map["current_temp"] = _sf(observation.get("current_temp")) - feature_map["humidity"] = _sf(observation.get("humidity")) - feature_map["wind_speed_kt"] = _sf(observation.get("wind_speed_kt")) - feature_map["visibility_mi"] = _sf(observation.get("visibility_mi")) - local_hour = _sf(observation.get("local_hour")) - if local_hour is not None: - feature_map["local_hour"] = local_hour - else: - timestamp = _parse_timestamp(snapshot.get("timestamp")) - if timestamp is not None: - feature_map["local_hour"] = float(timestamp.hour) - peak_code = _peak_status_code(snapshot.get("peak_status")) - if peak_code is not None: - feature_map["peak_status_code"] = peak_code - model_median, model_spread = _compute_model_summary(feature_map) - feature_map["model_median"] = model_median - feature_map["model_spread"] = model_spread - - samples.append( - { - "city": _normalized_city_key(city_name), - "date": str(date_str), - "target": float(target), - "features": feature_map, - "vector": _features_to_vector(feature_map), - "history_count": int(meta.get("history_count") or 0), - "deb_prediction": _sf(record.get("deb_prediction")), - "forecasts": { - key: _sf(value) - for key, value in forecasts.items() - if _sf(value) is not None - }, - "sample_source": "daily_record", - "settlement_source": truth_row.get("settlement_source"), - "settlement_station_code": truth_row.get("settlement_station_code"), - "truth_version": truth_row.get("truth_version"), - "truth_updated_by": truth_row.get("updated_by"), - "truth_updated_at": truth_row.get("truth_updated_at"), - } - ) - samples.sort(key=lambda row: (row["date"], row["city"])) - return samples - - -def schema_payload( - *, - model_path: str, - sample_count: int, - train_count: int, - validation_count: int, - metrics: Dict[str, Any], -) -> Dict[str, Any]: - return { - "model_type": "LightGBMRegressor", - "target": "actual_high", - "horizon": "D0", - "feature_names": FEATURE_NAMES, - "base_model_columns": [column for _, column in BASE_MODEL_COLUMNS], - "model_path": model_path, - "sample_count": sample_count, - "train_count": train_count, - "validation_count": validation_count, - "metrics": metrics, - "generated_at": datetime.utcnow().isoformat() + "Z", - } diff --git a/web/analysis_service.py b/web/analysis_service.py index d7049cdc..0b8f0f20 100644 --- a/web/analysis_service.py +++ b/web/analysis_service.py @@ -29,7 +29,6 @@ from src.data_collection.city_registry import ALIASES, CITY_REGISTRY from src.data_collection.city_time import get_city_utc_offset_seconds from src.data_collection.nmc_sources import NMC_CITY_REFERENCES from src.database.runtime_state import IntradayPathSnapshotRepository -from src.models.lgbm_daily_high import predict_lgbm_daily_high from web.services.groq_commentary import ( build_groq_commentary_context as _groq_context_builder, clean_commentary_text as _groq_clean_text, @@ -2187,24 +2186,6 @@ def _analyze( else: peak_status = "before" - lgbm_val = None - if current_forecasts and deb_val is not None: - lgbm_val, _ = predict_lgbm_daily_high( - city_name=city, - current_forecasts=current_forecasts, - deb_prediction=deb_val, - current_temp=cur_temp, - max_so_far=max_so_far, - humidity=_sf(primary_current.get("humidity")), - wind_speed_kt=_sf(primary_current.get("wind_speed_kt")), - visibility_mi=_sf(primary_current.get("visibility_mi")), - local_hour=local_hour, - local_date=local_date_str, - peak_status=peak_status, - ) - # LGBM is kept as an independent reference (lgbm.prediction), - # not fed back into DEB to avoid circular dependency - deviation_monitor = _build_deviation_monitor( current_temp=cur_temp, deb_prediction=deb_val, @@ -2225,33 +2206,14 @@ def _analyze( probabilities = [] probabilities_all = [] - shadow_probabilities = [] - shadow_probabilities_all = [] mu = None - probability_engine = "legacy" - probability_calibration_mode = "legacy" - probability_calibration_version = None - probability_raw_mu = None - probability_raw_sigma = None - probability_calibrated_mu = None - probability_calibrated_sigma = None dynamic_commentary = {"summary": "", "notes": []} try: _, _ai_context, sd = _trend_analyze(raw, sym, city) - # Use structured data from shared engine mu = sd.get("mu") probabilities = sd.get("probabilities", []) probabilities_all = sd.get("probabilities_all", probabilities) - shadow_probabilities = sd.get("shadow_probabilities", []) - shadow_probabilities_all = sd.get("shadow_probabilities_all", shadow_probabilities) - probability_engine = sd.get("probability_engine", "legacy") - probability_calibration_mode = sd.get("probability_calibration_mode", "legacy") - probability_calibration_version = sd.get("probability_calibration_version") - probability_raw_mu = sd.get("probability_raw_mu") - probability_raw_sigma = sd.get("probability_raw_sigma") - probability_calibrated_mu = sd.get("probability_calibrated_mu") - probability_calibrated_sigma = sd.get("probability_calibrated_sigma") dynamic_commentary = sd.get("dynamic_commentary") or dynamic_commentary trend_info["is_dead_market"] = sd.get("trend_info", {}).get("is_dead_market", False) trend_info["direction"] = sd.get("trend_info", {}).get("direction", trend_info.get("direction", "unknown")) @@ -2632,22 +2594,13 @@ def _analyze( "multi_model": {k: v for k, v in current_forecasts.items() if v is not None}, "multi_model_daily": multi_model_daily, "deb": {"prediction": deb_val, "weights_info": deb_weights}, - "lgbm": {"prediction": lgbm_val}, "deviation_monitor": deviation_monitor, "ensemble": ens_data, "probabilities": { "mu": round(mu, 1) if mu is not None else None, "distribution": probabilities, "distribution_all": probabilities_all or probabilities, - "engine": probability_engine, - "calibration_mode": probability_calibration_mode, - "calibration_version": probability_calibration_version, - "raw_mu": probability_raw_mu, - "raw_sigma": probability_raw_sigma, - "calibrated_mu": probability_calibrated_mu, - "calibrated_sigma": probability_calibrated_sigma, - "shadow_distribution": shadow_probabilities, - "shadow_distribution_all": shadow_probabilities_all or shadow_probabilities, + "engine": "legacy", }, "trend": trend_info, "peak": { diff --git a/web/core.py b/web/core.py index d6e0b702..34e11f19 100644 --- a/web/core.py +++ b/web/core.py @@ -27,12 +27,6 @@ from src.utils.metrics import ( gauge_set, histogram_observe, ) -from src.analysis.probability_calibration import ( - DEFAULT_CALIBRATION_FILE, - check_calibration_drift, - resolve_probability_engine_mode, -) -from src.analysis.probability_rollout import build_rollout_report from src.database.db_manager import DBManager from src.database.runtime_state import get_state_storage_mode from src.payments import PAYMENT_CHECKOUT, PaymentCheckoutError # noqa: F401 @@ -87,12 +81,6 @@ CACHE_TTL = 300 CACHE_TTL_ANKARA = 60 CACHE_TTL_KOREAN_AMOS = 60 _PROJECT_ROOT = os.path.dirname(os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__))) -_PROBABILITY_EVALUATION_REPORT = os.path.join( - _PROJECT_ROOT, - "artifacts", - "probability_calibration", - "evaluation_report.json", -) @app.middleware("http") @@ -167,26 +155,6 @@ async def _etag_middleware(request: Request, call_next): response.headers["Cache-Control"] = "private, max-age=30" return response -_PROBABILITY_SHADOW_REPORT = os.path.join( - _PROJECT_ROOT, - "artifacts", - "probability_calibration", - "shadow_report.json", -) -_PROBABILITY_TRAINING_SAMPLES = os.path.join( - _PROJECT_ROOT, - "artifacts", - "probability_calibration", - "training_samples.json", -) -_LGBM_SCHEMA_REPORT = os.path.join( - _PROJECT_ROOT, - "artifacts", - "models", - "lgbm_daily_high_schema.json", -) - - def _env_bool(name: str, default: bool = False) -> bool: raw = os.getenv(name) if raw is None: @@ -508,44 +476,8 @@ def _integration_summary() -> Dict[str, Any]: def _probability_summary() -> Dict[str, Any]: - rollout = build_rollout_report( - _PROBABILITY_EVALUATION_REPORT, - _PROBABILITY_SHADOW_REPORT, - ) - drift = {"drifted": False, "sample_count": 0, "warning": "not checked"} - try: - import sqlite3 - conn = sqlite3.connect(_account_db.db_path) - rows = conn.execute( - "SELECT city, target_date, actual_high, deb_prediction, extra_json FROM daily_records_store ORDER BY target_date DESC LIMIT 200" - ).fetchall() - conn.close() - records: list[dict[str, Any]] = [] - for row in rows: - rec = {"city": row[0], "target_date": row[1], "actual_high": row[2], "deb_prediction": row[3]} - try: - extra = json.loads(row[4] or "{}") if row[4] else {} - rec["mu"] = extra.get("mu") - rec["sigma"] = extra.get("sigma") - except Exception: - pass - records.append(rec) - if records: - drift = check_calibration_drift(records) - if drift.get("drifted"): - logger.warning( - "Calibration drift detected: {} — {}", - drift.get("warning") or "CRPS degraded", - f"delta={drift.get('delta_pct')}% samples={drift.get('sample_count')}", - ) - except Exception: - pass return { - "engine_mode": resolve_probability_engine_mode(), - "calibration_file": os.getenv("POLYWEATHER_PROBABILITY_CALIBRATION_FILE") - or DEFAULT_CALIBRATION_FILE, - "rollout": rollout, - "drift": drift, + "engine_mode": "legacy", } @@ -698,27 +630,10 @@ def _city_coverage_summary(conn: sqlite3.Connection) -> Dict[str, Any]: def _model_city_coverage_summary( city_entries: Any, - training_samples_payload: Dict[str, Any], - evaluation_report: Dict[str, Any], ) -> Dict[str, Any]: - training_samples = training_samples_payload.get("samples") or [] - emos_training_counts: Dict[str, int] = {} - emos_snapshot_counts: Dict[str, int] = {} - for item in training_samples: - if not isinstance(item, dict): - continue - city = str(item.get("city") or "").strip().lower() - if not city: - continue - emos_training_counts[city] = emos_training_counts.get(city, 0) + 1 - if str(item.get("sample_source") or "").strip().lower() == "snapshot": - emos_snapshot_counts[city] = emos_snapshot_counts.get(city, 0) + 1 - - evaluation_by_city = (evaluation_report.get("by_city") or {}) if isinstance(evaluation_report, dict) else {} rows = [] for entry in city_entries or []: city = str(entry.get("city") or "").strip().lower() - emos_eval = evaluation_by_city.get(city) or {} rows.append( { "city": city, @@ -726,22 +641,13 @@ def _model_city_coverage_summary( "settlement_source": entry.get("settlement_source"), "truth_rows": int(entry.get("truth_rows") or 0), "feature_rows": int(entry.get("feature_rows") or 0), - "emos_training_samples": int(emos_training_counts.get(city, 0)), - "emos_snapshot_samples": int(emos_snapshot_counts.get(city, 0)), - "emos_evaluation_samples": int(emos_eval.get("samples") or 0), - "emos_delta_crps": emos_eval.get("emos_mean_crps"), - "lgbm_candidate_rows": int(entry.get("feature_rows") or 0), } ) weakest = sorted( rows, key=lambda row: ( - row["emos_training_samples"] > 0, - row["lgbm_candidate_rows"] > 0, row["truth_rows"] > 0, - row["emos_training_samples"], - row["lgbm_candidate_rows"], row["truth_rows"], row["city"], ), @@ -749,15 +655,11 @@ def _model_city_coverage_summary( strongest = sorted( rows, key=lambda row: ( - -row["emos_training_samples"], - -row["lgbm_candidate_rows"], -row["truth_rows"], row["city"], ), )[:8] return { - "cities_with_emos_training": sum(1 for row in rows if row["emos_training_samples"] > 0), - "cities_with_lgbm_candidates": sum(1 for row in rows if row["lgbm_candidate_rows"] > 0), "weakest": weakest, "strongest": strongest, } @@ -786,17 +688,9 @@ def _training_data_summary() -> Dict[str, Any]: "truth_revisions": truth_revisions, "training_features": training_features, "city_coverage": {}, - "artifacts": {}, + "model_city_coverage": {}, } - evaluation_report = _read_json_file(_PROBABILITY_EVALUATION_REPORT) or {} - shadow_report = _read_json_file(_PROBABILITY_SHADOW_REPORT) or {} - training_samples = _read_json_file(_PROBABILITY_TRAINING_SAMPLES) or {} - lgbm_report = _read_json_file(_LGBM_SCHEMA_REPORT) or {} - evaluation_summary = (evaluation_report.get("summary") or {}) if isinstance(evaluation_report, dict) else {} - shadow_summary = shadow_report.get("summary") or {} - lgbm_validation = ((lgbm_report.get("metrics") or {}).get("validation") or {}) - return { "db_path": db_path, "db_ok": True, @@ -806,22 +700,7 @@ def _training_data_summary() -> Dict[str, Any]: "city_coverage": city_coverage, "model_city_coverage": _model_city_coverage_summary( city_coverage.get("entries") or [], - training_samples, - evaluation_report, ), - "artifacts": { - "emos_training_samples": training_samples.get("sample_count"), - "emos_snapshot_samples": training_samples.get("snapshot_sample_count"), - "emos_daily_record_samples": training_samples.get("daily_record_sample_count"), - "emos_evaluation_samples": evaluation_summary.get("sample_count"), - "emos_shadow_samples": shadow_summary.get("sample_count"), - "emos_delta_crps": (evaluation_summary.get("delta") or {}).get("crps"), - "lgbm_sample_count": lgbm_report.get("sample_count"), - "lgbm_train_count": lgbm_report.get("train_count"), - "lgbm_validation_count": lgbm_report.get("validation_count"), - "lgbm_validation_mae": lgbm_validation.get("lgbm_mae"), - "lgbm_validation_deb_mae": lgbm_validation.get("deb_mae"), - }, }