Add LightGBM daily high forecasting pipeline

2026-03-29 23:29:17 +08:00
parent 4a2db4727b
commit 0cc4f4f0d3
25 changed files with 3038 additions and 82 deletions
@@ -0,0 +1,93 @@
+import src.models.lgbm_daily_high as runtime
+
+
+class _FakeBooster:
+    best_iteration = 7
+
+    def predict(self, rows, num_iteration=None):
+        assert len(rows) == 1
+        return [14.36]
+
+
+def test_predict_lgbm_daily_high_skips_when_disabled(monkeypatch):
+    monkeypatch.setenv("POLYWEATHER_LGBM_ENABLED", "false")
+    prediction, meta = runtime.predict_lgbm_daily_high(
+        city_name="ankara",
+        current_forecasts={"Open-Meteo": 12.4},
+        deb_prediction=12.3,
+        current_temp=11.0,
+        max_so_far=11.4,
+        humidity=62.0,
+        wind_speed_kt=8.0,
+        visibility_mi=6.0,
+        local_hour=10,
+        local_date="2026-03-24",
+        peak_status="before",
+        history_data={},
+    )
+    assert prediction is None
+    assert meta["reason"] == "disabled"
+
+
+def test_predict_lgbm_daily_high_returns_prediction(monkeypatch):
+    monkeypatch.setenv("POLYWEATHER_LGBM_ENABLED", "true")
+    monkeypatch.setenv("POLYWEATHER_LGBM_MIN_HISTORY_POINTS", "3")
+    monkeypatch.setattr(runtime, "_load_schema", lambda path: {"feature_names": runtime.FEATURE_NAMES})
+    monkeypatch.setattr(runtime, "_load_booster", lambda path: _FakeBooster())
+
+    history_data = {
+        "ankara": {
+            "2026-03-20": {"actual_high": 10.0},
+            "2026-03-21": {"actual_high": 11.0},
+            "2026-03-22": {"actual_high": 13.0},
+            "2026-03-23": {"actual_high": 12.0},
+        }
+    }
+    prediction, meta = runtime.predict_lgbm_daily_high(
+        city_name="ankara",
+        current_forecasts={"Open-Meteo": 12.4, "ECMWF": 12.1, "GFS": 11.9},
+        deb_prediction=12.3,
+        current_temp=11.0,
+        max_so_far=11.4,
+        humidity=62.0,
+        wind_speed_kt=8.0,
+        visibility_mi=6.0,
+        local_hour=10,
+        local_date="2026-03-24",
+        peak_status="before",
+        history_data=history_data,
+    )
+    assert prediction == 14.4
+    assert meta["reason"] == "ok"
+    assert meta["history_count"] == 4
+
+
+def test_predict_lgbm_daily_high_requires_min_history(monkeypatch):
+    monkeypatch.setenv("POLYWEATHER_LGBM_ENABLED", "true")
+    monkeypatch.setenv("POLYWEATHER_LGBM_MIN_HISTORY_POINTS", "5")
+    monkeypatch.setattr(runtime, "_load_schema", lambda path: {"feature_names": runtime.FEATURE_NAMES})
+    monkeypatch.setattr(runtime, "_load_booster", lambda path: _FakeBooster())
+
+    history_data = {
+        "ankara": {
+            "2026-03-21": {"actual_high": 11.0},
+            "2026-03-22": {"actual_high": 13.0},
+            "2026-03-23": {"actual_high": 12.0},
+        }
+    }
+    prediction, meta = runtime.predict_lgbm_daily_high(
+        city_name="ankara",
+        current_forecasts={"Open-Meteo": 12.4},
+        deb_prediction=12.3,
+        current_temp=11.0,
+        max_so_far=11.4,
+        humidity=62.0,
+        wind_speed_kt=8.0,
+        visibility_mi=6.0,
+        local_hour=10,
+        local_date="2026-03-24",
+        peak_status="before",
+        history_data=history_data,
+    )
+    assert prediction is None
+    assert meta["reason"] == "insufficient_history"
@@ -0,0 +1,61 @@
+from src.models.lgbm_features import build_runtime_feature_map
+
+
+def test_build_runtime_feature_map_derives_history_and_model_summary():
+    history_data = {
+        "ankara": {
+            "2026-03-20": {"actual_high": 10.0},
+            "2026-03-21": {"actual_high": 11.0},
+            "2026-03-22": {"actual_high": 13.0},
+            "2026-03-23": {"actual_high": 12.0},
+        }
+    }
+
+    feature_map, meta = build_runtime_feature_map(
+        city_name="ankara",
+        current_forecasts={
+            "Open-Meteo": 12.4,
+            "ECMWF": 12.1,
+            "GFS": 11.9,
+            "GEM": 12.8,
+        },
+        deb_prediction=12.3,
+        current_temp=11.0,
+        max_so_far=11.4,
+        humidity=62.0,
+        wind_speed_kt=8.0,
+        visibility_mi=6.0,
+        local_hour=10,
+        local_date="2026-03-24",
+        peak_status="before",
+        history_data=history_data,
+    )
+
+    assert meta["reason"] == "ok"
+    assert meta["history_count"] == 4
+    assert feature_map["actual_high_lag_1"] == 12.0
+    assert feature_map["actual_high_lag_2"] == 13.0
+    assert feature_map["actual_high_trend_3"] == 1.0
+    assert feature_map["model_median"] == 12.4
+    assert round(feature_map["model_spread"], 3) == 0.9
+    assert feature_map["peak_status_code"] == 0.0
+
+
+def test_build_runtime_feature_map_returns_none_without_history():
+    feature_map, meta = build_runtime_feature_map(
+        city_name="unknown-city",
+        current_forecasts={"Open-Meteo": 12.4},
+        deb_prediction=12.3,
+        current_temp=11.0,
+        max_so_far=11.4,
+        humidity=62.0,
+        wind_speed_kt=8.0,
+        visibility_mi=6.0,
+        local_hour=10,
+        local_date="2026-03-24",
+        peak_status="before",
+        history_data={},
+    )
+
+    assert feature_map is None
+    assert meta["reason"] == "no_history"