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Add LightGBM daily high forecasting pipeline

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2569718930@qq.com
2026-03-29 23:29:17 +08:00
parent 4a2db4727b
commit 0cc4f4f0d3
25 changed files with 3038 additions and 82 deletions
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data/probability_training_snapshots.jsonl
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@@ -121,3 +121,5 @@
{"city": "shenzhen", "timestamp": "2026-03-25T08:57:11.783182+00:00", "date": "2026-03-25", "temp_symbol": "°C", "raw_mu": 26.7, "raw_sigma": 0.18016764322916676, "deb_prediction": 28.1, "ensemble": {"p10": 30.5, "median": 31.4, "p90": 31.8}, "multi_model": {"Open-Meteo": 26.6, "ECMWF": 28.8, "GFS": 30.3, "ICON": 26.6, "GEM": 30.7, "JMA": 25.5}, "max_so_far": 26.7, "peak_status": "past", "prob_snapshot": [{"v": 27, "p": 1.0}], "shadow_prob_snapshot": [{"v": 27, "p": 1.0}], "probability_engine": "legacy", "probability_mode": "emos_shadow", "calibration_version": "emos-20260320132525", "calibration_source": "artifacts\\probability_calibration\\default.json", "calibrated_mu": 26.7, "calibrated_sigma": 0.24322631835937514}
{"city": "shenzhen", "timestamp": "2026-03-25T09:32:32+00:00", "date": "2026-03-25", "temp_symbol": "°C", "raw_mu": null, "raw_sigma": 0.16637912326388898, "deb_prediction": 28.1, "ensemble": {"p10": 30.5, "median": 31.4, "p90": 31.8}, "multi_model": {"Open-Meteo": 26.6, "ECMWF": 28.8, "GFS": 30.3, "ICON": 26.6, "GEM": 30.7, "JMA": 25.5}, "max_so_far": 28.9, "peak_status": "past", "prob_snapshot": [{"v": 29, "p": 1.0}], "shadow_prob_snapshot": [], "probability_engine": "legacy", "probability_mode": "legacy", "calibration_version": null, "calibration_source": null, "calibrated_mu": null, "calibrated_sigma": null}
{"city": "shenzhen", "timestamp": "2026-03-25T10:02:35+00:00", "date": "2026-03-25", "temp_symbol": "°C", "raw_mu": null, "raw_sigma": 0.15911458333333342, "deb_prediction": 28.2, "ensemble": {"p10": 30.5, "median": 31.4, "p90": 31.8}, "multi_model": {"Open-Meteo": 26.5, "ECMWF": 28.8, "GFS": 30.3, "ICON": 26.5, "GEM": 30.7, "JMA": 26.2}, "max_so_far": 28.9, "peak_status": "past", "prob_snapshot": [{"v": 28, "p": 1.0}], "shadow_prob_snapshot": [], "probability_engine": "legacy", "probability_mode": "legacy", "calibration_version": null, "calibration_source": null, "calibrated_mu": null, "calibrated_sigma": null}
{"city": "shanghai", "timestamp": "2026-03-29T15:00:00.000Z", "date": "2026-03-29", "temp_symbol": "°C", "raw_mu": null, "raw_sigma": 0.23736458333333335, "deb_prediction": 18.4, "ensemble": {"p10": 16.1, "median": 16.5, "p90": 16.9}, "multi_model": {"Open-Meteo": 17.0, "ECMWF": 19.2, "GFS": 19.1, "ICON": 17.0, "GEM": 17.6, "JMA": 15.8}, "max_so_far": 18.0, "observation": {"current_temp": 14.0, "humidity": null, "wind_speed_kt": 4.0, "visibility_mi": 3.11, "local_hour": 23.25}, "peak_status": "past", "prob_snapshot": [{"v": 18, "p": 1.0}], "shadow_prob_snapshot": [], "probability_engine": "legacy", "probability_mode": "legacy", "calibration_version": null, "calibration_source": null, "calibrated_mu": null, "calibrated_sigma": null}
{"city": "ankara", "timestamp": "2026-03-29T15:01:00.000Z", "date": "2026-03-29", "temp_symbol": "°C", "raw_mu": null, "raw_sigma": 0.25176666666666664, "deb_prediction": 9.7, "ensemble": {"p10": 9.2, "median": 9.5, "p90": 10.2}, "multi_model": {"Open-Meteo": 9.2, "ECMWF": 9.5, "GFS": 10.1, "ICON": 9.2, "GEM": 11.0, "JMA": 10.0}, "max_so_far": 10.0, "observation": {"current_temp": 7.0, "humidity": null, "wind_speed_kt": 12.0, "visibility_mi": null, "local_hour": 18.25}, "peak_status": "past", "prob_snapshot": [{"v": 10, "p": 1.0}], "shadow_prob_snapshot": [], "probability_engine": "legacy", "probability_mode": "legacy", "calibration_version": null, "calibration_source": null, "calibrated_mu": null, "calibrated_sigma": null}