{type:"bullets",items:["今日日内分析：围绕今日峰值窗口，解释近地面信号、高空结构和机场 TAF。","多模型预报：展示 DEB 与多模型最高温预测，帮助判断市场当前最热桶是否合理。","历史对账：查看近 15 天已结算样本、DEB MAE 与最佳单模型表现。","站点结构：明确区分结算站点、机场主站和官方增强站网。"]},
description:"The PolyWeather docs explain the product's core concepts, settlement logic, and intraday structural signals so users can turn weather context into actionable decisions.",
sections:[
{
id:"what-is-polyweather",
title:"What PolyWeather is",
blocks:[
{type:"paragraph",text:"PolyWeather is not a generic weather app. It is built for weather derivatives and temperature markets, with one job: estimate the likely high-temperature bucket, explain whether the airport or official settlement site may get capped, and surface whether the market is mispricing that outcome."},
{type:"callout",tone:"info",title:"Product focus",text:"The core value is not raw weather reporting. It is the conversion of models, airport-primary observations, official nearby networks, airport forecasts, and settlement rules into usable trading context."},
{type:"bullets",items:["Intraday analysis: peak-window focused reading of surface structure, upper-air structure, and airport TAF.","Multi-model forecast: DEB versus major model highs, useful for checking whether the hottest market bucket is justified.","History reconciliation: settled-sample MAE and hit-rate over the last 15 days.","Station structure: a clear split between the settlement station, airport primary observation, and official nearby network."]},
{type:"steps",items:["Start with the intraday temperature chart to anchor current observations, DEB, and the expected peak window.","Read the structural signal next to see whether the setup still supports further warming, leans suppressive, or remains mixed.","Then compare that weather structure against market buckets and settlement probabilities."]},
description:"This page explains how the intraday structural signal is built and why surface structure and airport TAF both appear in the same reading.",
sections:[
{
id:"surface-vs-upper",
title:"Surface versus upper-air structure",
blocks:[
{type:"paragraph",text:"The surface layer comes from hourly temperature, dew point, pressure, wind, precipitation probability, and cloud-cover changes. It answers a near-term question: between now and the peak window, does the local surface setup still support more warming or does it look easier to cap?"},
{type:"paragraph",text:"The upper-air layer combines derived profile signals, airport TAF, and market-side context. It answers a different question: around the peak window, is there a new airport-side or upper-air disturbance that could lock the high in place?"},
],
},
{
id:"peak-window",
title:"Why everything is framed around the peak window",
blocks:[
{type:"paragraph",text:"PolyWeather does not force every city into the same afternoon template. It centers the analysis on the expected high-temperature payoff window for that city on that day, so different cities are not interpreted through the wrong hours."},
{type:"callout",tone:"success",title:"Window-aware reading",text:"When you see a line such as “12:00-16:00 (~5h, around the peak window)”, that is the actual window driving the current structural read."},
],
},
{
id:"trade-language",
title:"How to read the trading language",
blocks:[
{type:"bullets",items:["Supportive: the setup still supports more warming. Do not call the high too early.","Suppressive: further upside looks less reliable. Do not chase the high blindly.","Wait / confirm: the setup is still mixed. Let the next move decide first."]},
description:"TAF is not the settlement temperature itself, but it is useful for telling you whether the airport side may see clouds, showers, thunderstorms, or wind shifts that cap the high around the payoff window.",
sections:[
{
id:"what-taf-does",
title:"What TAF does inside PolyWeather",
blocks:[
{type:"paragraph",text:"Within the product, TAF acts as an airport-side confirmation layer rather than the main temperature curve. Its job is to tell you whether clouds/rain may suppress the airport high, whether afternoon disruption is building, and whether the airport wind regime is about to shift in stages."},
],
},
{
id:"taf-periods",
title:"What the TAF timing labels mean",
blocks:[
{type:"bullets",items:["Base regime: the default background forecast segment.","Hard shift (FM): a new weather regime begins from an explicit time.","Temporary swing (TEMPO): a temporary disturbance window that does not replace the background regime permanently.","Gradual shift (BECMG): conditions transition across a window instead of flipping instantly.","30% / 40% risk window (PROB30/40): a probabilistic risk window, not a certainty signal."]},
],
},
{
id:"airport-suppression",
title:"What airport-side suppression risk means",
blocks:[
{type:"paragraph",text:"It does not mean the entire city must run cooler. It means the airport station used for settlement is more likely to get capped by clouds, showers, or thunderstorm disruption during the peak window and fail to reach the next warmer bucket."},
{type:"callout",tone:"warning",title:"Important distinction",text:"TAF explains whether the airport side may face suppressive weather over the next few hours. Settlement still comes from the actual settlement station reading, while the official nearby network is only an enhancement layer for lead/lag and spread, not a replacement anchor."},
{type:"paragraph",text:"A market may say “city high”, but the true settlement often comes from a designated airport or official site rather than the broader urban feel. One of the most common mistakes is to trade the city feel instead of the actual settlement station."},
{type:"bullets",items:["Most airport-linked markets settle on airport METAR or the airport primary observing site.","Turkish airport markets keep METAR as the airport anchor, with Turkish MGM retained as a leading-structure reference.","Mainland China airport markets keep METAR as the airport anchor, while NMC current observations act as an official enhancement layer rather than a direct replacement anchor.","Markets with explicitly designated official sites, such as Hong Kong, Lau Fau Shan, and Taiwan station-driven contracts, should be anchored to those official settlement stations rather than generic airport logic."]},
{type:"bullets",items:["TAF is not the settlement station. It only tells you whether airport-side suppressive weather may appear.","If the market settles on an airport site, a hotter downtown feel does not automatically justify a warmer settlement bucket.","The official nearby network is a lead/lag and spread layer. It should not be mistaken for the final settlement anchor unless the market explicitly names that station.","Hong Kong, Lau Fau Shan, and Taiwan station-driven contracts should not be forced into the generic airport TAF / METAR chain."]},
description:"History reconciliation is for settled samples only. It is not meant to leak same-day unsettled outcomes into historical hit-rate or MAE.",
sections:[
{
id:"settled-only",
title:"Why only settled samples count",
blocks:[
{type:"paragraph",text:"The history panel only counts settled samples. Markets still trading on the same day are excluded from DEB hit-rate and MAE so unfinished outcomes do not contaminate the historical record."},
],
},
{
id:"rolling-window",
title:"Rolling 15-day view",
blocks:[
{type:"paragraph",text:"The web dashboard defaults to a rolling 15-day view so the panel reflects current model behavior rather than being overly diluted by older regimes."},
],
},
{
id:"peak-minus-12h",
title:"DEB at peak minus 12 hours",
blocks:[
{type:"paragraph",text:"This field answers a more specific question: how good was DEB roughly 12 hours before the eventual high actually printed? It is not a settlement rule, but a way to judge whether the model corrected too slowly."},
{type:"callout",tone:"info",title:"Approximation note",text:"The current peak time is inferred from the snapshot chain and should be treated as an approximate reference rather than a minute-perfect official replay."},
description:"PolyWeather Side Panel is a browser side-panel tool for weather trading workflows. It auto-detects cities, shows compact intraday and city-profile context, and routes users back to the full dashboard.",
"Shows a compact intraday chart with DEB versus airport-primary observations and official nearby-network observations, including hoverable time and temperature.",
"Shows a compact multi-day daily-high forecast, plus refresh and jump-to-site actions.",
],
},
],
},
{
id:"extension-permission",
title:"Permissions and privacy",
blocks:[
{
type:"bullets",
items:[
"`tabs`: used to inspect the active tab URL and match the current city.",
"`storage`: used for local configuration and local cache only.",
"`sidePanel`: used to render the browser side panel UI.",
"The extension does not require login, does not collect personally identifiable information, and does not upload browsing history. It only requests weather endpoints when needed to render the panel.",
text:"The extension does not attempt to replicate the full analysis stack and does not carry the payment flow. Deeper structural reasoning and full trade context still live on the main site.",
},
{
type:"callout",
tone:"info",
title:"Current positioning",
text:"Think of the extension as monitoring plus lightweight bias, not as a full dashboard replacement.",
},
],
},
{
id:"extension-forecast",
title:"Current forecast logic",
blocks:[
{
type:"paragraph",
text:"The extension now prefers DEB for the multi-day forecast. It falls back to the original daily max only when a DEB value is missing for that date.",
