description:"The PolyWeather docs explain the product's core concepts, settlement logic, and intraday structural signals so users can turn airport anchors, official nearby networks, and model context into actionable decisions.",
{type:"paragraph",text:"PolyWeather is not a generic weather app. It is built for weather derivatives and temperature markets, with one job: estimate the likely high-temperature bucket, explain whether the airport or official settlement site may get capped, and surface whether the market is mispricing that outcome."},
{type:"callout",tone:"info",title:"Product focus",text:"The core value is not raw weather reporting. It is the conversion of models, airport-primary observations, official nearby networks, airport forecasts, and settlement rules into usable trading context."},
{type:"bullets",items:["Anchor status: current airport-primary observation, day-high-so-far, and the settlement clock.","Current pace: compares where the airport should be by now versus the actual observation.","Current hit odds / model spread: the likeliest bucket now and how far the model family is split.","Intraday structural signal: surface structure, upper-air structure, airport TAF, and official nearby-network context around the peak window.","History reconciliation: settled-sample MAE and hit-rate over the last 15 days."]},
{type:"steps",items:["Start with anchor status and the intraday chart to anchor current observations, DEB, and the expected peak window.","Read the current pace card to see whether the airport is running hot, cold, or roughly on schedule.","Use the structural signal to check boundary risk, airport versus nearby stations, and whether TAF introduces suppression risk.","Then compare that weather structure against hit odds and the model spread."]},
description:"This page explains how the intraday structural signal is built and why surface structure and airport TAF both appear in the same reading.",
sections:[
{
id:"surface-vs-upper",
title:"Surface versus upper-air structure",
blocks:[
{type:"paragraph",text:"The surface layer comes from hourly temperature, dew point, pressure, wind, precipitation probability, and cloud-cover changes. It answers a near-term question: between now and the peak window, does the local surface setup still support more warming or does it look easier to cap?"},
{type:"paragraph",text:"The upper-air layer combines derived profile signals, airport TAF, and market-side context. It answers a different question: around the peak window, is there a new airport-side or upper-air disturbance that could lock the high in place?"},
],
},
{
id:"peak-window",
title:"Why everything is framed around the peak window",
blocks:[
{type:"paragraph",text:"PolyWeather does not force every city into the same afternoon template. It centers the analysis on the expected high-temperature payoff window for that city on that day, so different cities are not interpreted through the wrong hours."},
{type:"callout",tone:"success",title:"Window-aware reading",text:"When you see a line such as “12:00-16:00 (~5h, around the peak window)”, that is the actual window driving the current structural read."},
],
},
{
id:"trade-language",
title:"How to read the trading language",
blocks:[
{type:"bullets",items:["Supportive: the setup still supports more warming. Do not call the high too early.","Suppressive: further upside looks less reliable. Do not chase the high blindly.","Wait / confirm: the setup is still mixed. Let the next move decide first."]},
description:"This page explains which open models PolyWeather uses, why model coverage differs by region, and how DEB avoids duplicate family weighting.",
sections:[
{
id:"model-sources",
title:"Open models currently integrated",
blocks:[
{type:"paragraph",text:"PolyWeather's multi-model layer uses the Open-Meteo model API to integrate open NWP and AI forecasts. It does not download raw GRIB directly; instead, available models are normalized into the daily-high model stack used by spread, probabilities, and DEB."},
{type:"bullets",items:["ECMWF IFS: global traditional NWP.","ECMWF AIFS: ECMWF AI forecast, kept as a separate AI path.","DWD ICON: global ICON baseline.","DWD ICON-EU: European regional high-resolution layer.","DWD ICON-D2: European short-range high-resolution layer.","ECCC GEM / GDPS: Canadian global model family.","ECCC RDPS / HRDPS: North American regional and short-range high-resolution layers.","GFS / JMA: retained as global reference models."]},
],
},
{
id:"regional-coverage",
title:"Why Europe, Asia, and US cities show different models",
blocks:[
{type:"paragraph",text:"Model domains differ, so the same request can return different model fields depending on the city coordinates. If a regional model does not cover a city, it is omitted rather than shown as an empty value."},
{type:"bullets",items:["European cities usually show ECMWF / AIFS / GFS / ICON / ICON-EU / ICON-D2 / GEM or GDPS / JMA. The high-resolution European layer comes mainly from DWD ICON-EU and ICON-D2.","North American cities usually show ECMWF / AIFS / GFS / ICON / GEM / GDPS / RDPS / HRDPS / JMA, plus existing NWS context. The high-resolution North American layer comes mainly from ECCC RDPS and HRDPS.","Asian cities usually rely on ECMWF / AIFS / GFS / ICON / GEM or GDPS / JMA. ICON-EU, ICON-D2, RDPS, and HRDPS usually do not cover Asia, so Asian reads lean more on local official stations, METAR, TAF, JMA, KMA, NMC, HKO, CWA, and other observation enhancement layers."]},
],
},
{
id:"deb-dedup",
title:"How DEB handles the new models",
blocks:[
{type:"paragraph",text:"DEB does not treat every new model as one independent vote. Otherwise ICON / ICON-EU / ICON-D2 would over-amplify the DWD family, and GEM / GDPS / RDPS / HRDPS would over-amplify the Canadian family."},
{type:"bullets",items:["ICON / ICON-EU / ICON-D2 are collapsed into one DWD ICON family, with priority ICON-D2 > ICON-EU > ICON.","GEM / GDPS / RDPS / HRDPS are collapsed into one ECCC GEM family, with priority HRDPS > RDPS > GDPS > GEM.","ECMWF IFS and ECMWF AIFS are kept separate because one is traditional NWP and the other is an AI forecast.","GFS, JMA, MGM, NWS, LGBM, and Open-Meteo remain independent paths.","When the DEB weight string includes “family deduplication” or “家族去重”, the system has collapsed same-family models before applying historical inverse-MAE weighting."]},
{type:"callout",tone:"info",title:"Product meaning",text:"The new models improve regional representativeness and explanation quality. They do not let a region gain extra weight simply because more related model variants exist there."},
],
},
{
id:"display",
title:"How the site displays this",
blocks:[
{type:"paragraph",text:"The Model Range & Spread panel groups the model stack into Global Baseline, AI Forecast, Europe High-resolution, and North America High-resolution. It shows available model count, spread, source, model name, resolution, and forecast horizon. Regional models outside their domain are simply not shown."},
description:"TAF is not the settlement temperature itself, but it is useful for telling you whether the airport side may see clouds, showers, thunderstorms, or wind shifts that cap the high around the payoff window.",
sections:[
{
id:"what-taf-does",
title:"What TAF does inside PolyWeather",
blocks:[
{type:"paragraph",text:"Within the product, TAF acts as an airport-side confirmation layer rather than the main temperature curve. Its job is to tell you whether clouds/rain may suppress the airport high, whether afternoon disruption is building, and whether the airport wind regime is about to shift in stages."},
],
},
{
id:"taf-periods",
title:"What the TAF timing labels mean",
blocks:[
{type:"bullets",items:["Base regime: the default background forecast segment.","Hard shift (FM): a new weather regime begins from an explicit time.","Temporary swing (TEMPO): a temporary disturbance window that does not replace the background regime permanently.","Gradual shift (BECMG): conditions transition across a window instead of flipping instantly.","30% / 40% risk window (PROB30/40): a probabilistic risk window, not a certainty signal."]},
],
},
{
id:"airport-suppression",
title:"What airport-side suppression risk means",
blocks:[
{type:"paragraph",text:"It does not mean the entire city must run cooler. It means the airport station used for settlement is more likely to get capped by clouds, showers, or thunderstorm disruption during the peak window and fail to reach the next warmer bucket."},
{type:"callout",tone:"warning",title:"Important distinction",text:"TAF explains whether the airport side may face suppressive weather over the next few hours. Settlement still comes from the actual settlement station reading, while the official nearby network is only an enhancement layer for lead/lag and spread, not a replacement anchor."},
{type:"paragraph",text:"A market may say “city high”, but the true settlement often comes from a designated airport or official site rather than the broader urban feel. One of the most common mistakes is to trade the city feel instead of the actual settlement station."},
{type:"bullets",items:["Most airport-linked markets settle on airport METAR or the airport primary observing site.","Turkish airport markets keep METAR as the airport anchor, with Turkish MGM retained as a leading-structure reference.","Mainland China airport markets keep METAR as the airport anchor, while NMC current observations act as an official enhancement layer rather than a direct replacement anchor.","Japanese and Korean airport markets can keep METAR as the anchor while using JMA / KMA nearby-network observations as an official enhancement layer.","Markets with explicitly designated official sites, such as Hong Kong, Lau Fau Shan, and Taiwan station-driven contracts, should be anchored to those official settlement stations rather than generic airport logic."]},
{type:"bullets",items:["TAF is not the settlement station. It only tells you whether airport-side suppressive weather may appear.","If the market settles on an airport site, a hotter downtown feel does not automatically justify a warmer settlement bucket.","The official nearby network is a lead/lag and spread layer. It should not be mistaken for the final settlement anchor unless the market explicitly names that station.","Hong Kong, Lau Fau Shan, and Taiwan station-driven contracts should not be forced into the generic airport TAF / METAR chain."]},
description:"History reconciliation is for settled samples only. It is not meant to leak same-day unsettled outcomes into historical hit-rate or MAE.",
sections:[
{
id:"settled-only",
title:"Why only settled samples count",
blocks:[
{type:"paragraph",text:"The history panel only counts settled samples. Markets still trading on the same day are excluded from DEB hit-rate and MAE so unfinished outcomes do not contaminate the historical record."},
],
},
{
id:"rolling-window",
title:"Rolling 15-day view",
blocks:[
{type:"paragraph",text:"The web dashboard defaults to a rolling 15-day view so the panel reflects current model behavior rather than being overly diluted by older regimes."},
],
},
{
id:"peak-minus-12h",
title:"DEB at peak minus 12 hours",
blocks:[
{type:"paragraph",text:"This field answers a more specific question: how good was DEB roughly 12 hours before the eventual high actually printed? It is not a settlement rule, but a way to judge whether the model corrected too slowly."},
{type:"callout",tone:"info",title:"Approximation note",text:"The current peak time is inferred from the snapshot chain and should be treated as an approximate reference rather than a minute-perfect official replay."},
description:"PolyWeather Side Panel is a browser side-panel tool for weather trading workflows. It auto-detects cities, shows compact intraday and city-profile context, and routes users back to the full dashboard.",
"Shows a compact intraday chart with DEB versus airport-primary observations and official nearby-network observations, including hoverable time and temperature.",
"Shows a compact multi-day daily-high forecast, plus refresh and jump-to-site actions.",
],
},
],
},
{
id:"extension-permission",
title:"Permissions and privacy",
blocks:[
{
type:"bullets",
items:[
"`tabs`: used to inspect the active tab URL and match the current city.",
"`storage`: used for local configuration and local cache only.",
"`sidePanel`: used to render the browser side panel UI.",
"The extension does not require login, does not collect personally identifiable information, and does not upload browsing history. It only requests weather endpoints when needed to render the panel.",
text:"The extension does not attempt to replicate the full analysis stack and does not carry the payment flow. Deeper structural reasoning and full trade context still live on the main site.",
},
{
type:"callout",
tone:"info",
title:"Current positioning",
text:"Think of the extension as monitoring plus lightweight bias, not as a full dashboard replacement.",
},
],
},
{
id:"extension-forecast",
title:"Current forecast logic",
blocks:[
{
type:"paragraph",
text:"The extension now prefers DEB for the multi-day forecast. It falls back to the original daily max only when a DEB value is missing for that date.",
