description:"The PolyWeather docs explain the product's core concepts, settlement logic, and intraday structural signals so users can turn weather context into actionable decisions.",
sections:[
{
id:"what-is-polyweather",
title:"What PolyWeather is",
blocks:[
{type:"paragraph",text:"PolyWeather is not a generic weather app. It is built for weather derivatives and temperature markets, with one job: estimate the likely high-temperature bucket, explain whether the airport or official settlement site may get capped, and surface whether the market is mispricing that outcome."},
{type:"callout",tone:"info",title:"Product focus",text:"The core value is not raw weather reporting. It is the conversion of models, observations, airport forecasts, and settlement rules into usable trading context."},
],
},
{
id:"core-modules",
title:"What you see on the site",
blocks:[
{type:"bullets",items:["Intraday analysis: peak-window focused reading of surface structure, upper-air structure, and airport TAF.","Multi-model forecast: DEB versus major model highs, useful for checking whether the hottest market bucket is justified.","History reconciliation: settled-sample MAE and hit-rate over the last 15 days.","Airport narrative: plain-language translation of METAR / TAF shorthand."]},
],
},
{
id:"how-to-read",
title:"How to read the dashboard quickly",
blocks:[
{type:"steps",items:["Start with the intraday temperature chart to anchor current observations, DEB, and the expected peak window.","Read the structural signal next to see whether the setup still supports further warming, leans suppressive, or remains mixed.","Then compare that weather structure against market buckets and settlement probabilities."]},
description:"This page explains how the intraday structural signal is built and why surface structure and airport TAF both appear in the same reading.",
sections:[
{
id:"surface-vs-upper",
title:"Surface versus upper-air structure",
blocks:[
{type:"paragraph",text:"The surface layer comes from hourly temperature, dew point, pressure, wind, precipitation probability, and cloud-cover changes. It answers a near-term question: between now and the peak window, does the local surface setup still support more warming or does it look easier to cap?"},
{type:"paragraph",text:"The upper-air layer combines derived profile signals, airport TAF, and market-side context. It answers a different question: around the peak window, is there a new airport-side or upper-air disturbance that could lock the high in place?"},
],
},
{
id:"peak-window",
title:"Why everything is framed around the peak window",
blocks:[
{type:"paragraph",text:"PolyWeather does not force every city into the same afternoon template. It centers the analysis on the expected high-temperature payoff window for that city on that day, so different cities are not interpreted through the wrong hours."},
{type:"callout",tone:"success",title:"Window-aware reading",text:"When you see a line such as “12:00-16:00 (~5h, around the peak window)”, that is the actual window driving the current structural read."},
],
},
{
id:"trade-language",
title:"How to read the trading language",
blocks:[
{type:"bullets",items:["Supportive: the setup still supports more warming. Do not call the high too early.","Suppressive: further upside looks less reliable. Do not chase the high blindly.","Wait / confirm: the setup is still mixed. Let the next move decide first."]},
description:"TAF is not the settlement temperature itself, but it is useful for telling you whether the airport side may see clouds, showers, thunderstorms, or wind shifts that cap the high around the payoff window.",
sections:[
{
id:"what-taf-does",
title:"What TAF does inside PolyWeather",
blocks:[
{type:"paragraph",text:"Within the product, TAF acts as an airport-side confirmation layer rather than the main temperature curve. Its job is to tell you whether clouds/rain may suppress the airport high, whether afternoon disruption is building, and whether the airport wind regime is about to shift in stages."},
],
},
{
id:"taf-periods",
title:"What the TAF timing labels mean",
blocks:[
{type:"bullets",items:["Base regime: the default background forecast segment.","Hard shift (FM): a new weather regime begins from an explicit time.","Temporary swing (TEMPO): a temporary disturbance window that does not replace the background regime permanently.","Gradual shift (BECMG): conditions transition across a window instead of flipping instantly.","30% / 40% risk window (PROB30/40): a probabilistic risk window, not a certainty signal."]},
],
},
{
id:"airport-suppression",
title:"What airport-side suppression risk means",
blocks:[
{type:"paragraph",text:"It does not mean the entire city must run cooler. It means the airport station used for settlement is more likely to get capped by clouds, showers, or thunderstorm disruption during the peak window and fail to reach the next warmer bucket."},
{type:"callout",tone:"warning",title:"Important distinction",text:"TAF explains whether the airport side may face suppressive weather over the next few hours. Settlement still comes from the actual settlement source such as METAR, HKO, MGM, a designated NOAA station, or a designated Wunderground station."},
description:"Settlement rules differ by city. Understanding the settlement source matters more than staring only at model curves.",
sections:[
{
id:"why-settlement-matters",
title:"Why settlement source comes first",
blocks:[
{type:"paragraph",text:"A market may say “city high”, but the true settlement often comes from a designated airport or official site rather than the broader urban feel. One of the most common mistakes is to trade the city feel instead of the actual settlement station."},
{type:"bullets",items:["Most airport-linked Western markets: settle on airport METAR or the airport primary observing site.","Hong Kong: settles on HKO, not on airport TAF as the main settlement logic.","NOAA markets such as Taipei, Istanbul, and Shenzhen settle against the designated weather.gov / NOAA station using the finalized highest rounded whole-degree Celsius reading; airport observations and downtown feel should not be mixed.","Ankara: settlement centers on LTAC / Esenboğa, with Turkish MGM retained as a leading-structure reference."]},
{type:"bullets",items:["TAF is not a settlement source. It only tells you whether airport-side suppressive weather may appear.","If the market settles on an airport site, a hotter downtown feel does not automatically justify a warmer settlement bucket.","NOAA markets should anchor to the designated weather.gov Temp column once the date is finalized, not to a nearby third-party station page.","Hong Kong and Taipei should not be forced into the generic airport TAF / METAR chain."]},
description:"History reconciliation is for settled samples only. It is not meant to leak same-day unsettled outcomes into historical hit-rate or MAE.",
sections:[
{
id:"settled-only",
title:"Why only settled samples count",
blocks:[
{type:"paragraph",text:"The history panel only counts settled samples. Markets still trading on the same day are excluded from DEB hit-rate and MAE so unfinished outcomes do not contaminate the historical record."},
],
},
{
id:"rolling-window",
title:"Rolling 15-day view",
blocks:[
{type:"paragraph",text:"The web dashboard defaults to a rolling 15-day view so the panel reflects current model behavior rather than being overly diluted by older regimes."},
],
},
{
id:"peak-minus-12h",
title:"DEB at peak minus 12 hours",
blocks:[
{type:"paragraph",text:"This field answers a more specific question: how good was DEB roughly 12 hours before the eventual high actually printed? It is not a settlement rule, but a way to judge whether the model corrected too slowly."},
{type:"callout",tone:"info",title:"Approximation note",text:"The current peak time is inferred from the snapshot chain and should be treated as an approximate reference rather than a minute-perfect official replay."},
description:"PolyWeather Side Panel is a browser side-panel tool for weather trading workflows. It auto-detects cities, shows compact intraday and city-profile context, and routes users back to the full dashboard.",
"Auto-detects the current Polymarket page city, with manual switching also available.",
"Shows a city profile with settlement station, station distance, observation timestamp, and nearby station count.",
"Shows a compact intraday chart with DEB versus official observations (METAR / HKO / CWA), including hoverable time and temperature.",
"Shows a compact multi-day daily-high forecast, plus refresh and jump-to-site actions.",
],
},
],
},
{
id:"extension-permission",
title:"Permissions and privacy",
blocks:[
{
type:"bullets",
items:[
"`tabs`: used to inspect the active tab URL and match the current city.",
"`storage`: used for local configuration and local cache only.",
"`sidePanel`: used to render the browser side panel UI.",
"The extension does not require login, does not collect personally identifiable information, and does not upload browsing history. It only requests weather endpoints when needed to render the panel.",
text:"The extension does not attempt to replicate the full analysis stack and does not carry the payment flow. Deeper structural reasoning and full trade context still live on the main site.",
},
{
type:"callout",
tone:"info",
title:"Current positioning",
text:"Think of the extension as monitoring plus lightweight bias, not as a full dashboard replacement.",
},
],
},
{
id:"extension-forecast",
title:"Current forecast logic",
blocks:[
{
type:"paragraph",
text:"The extension now prefers DEB for the multi-day forecast. It falls back to the original daily max only when a DEB value is missing for that date.",