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< title > PolyWeather - 天气衍生品智能地图</ title >
< meta name = "description" content = "PolyWeather 天气衍生品智能地图，聚合 METAR、MGM、DEB、多模型预报与历史对账分析。" >
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</ head >
< body >
< div id = "map" ></ div >
< header id = "header" >
< div class = "brand" >
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< h1 > PolyWeather</ h1 >
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< span class = "subtitle" > 天气衍生品智能分析</ span >
</ div >
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< button class = "info-btn" id = "btnShowGuide" title = "查看系统技术说明" > 技术说明</ button >
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< div class = "live-badge" id = "liveBadge" >
< span class = "pulse-dot" ></ span >
< span > 实时</ span >
</ div >
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< button class = "refresh-btn" id = "refreshAllBtn" title = "刷新所有数据" aria-label = "刷新所有数据" > ↻</ button >
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</ header >
< nav id = "cityList" class = "city-list" >
< div class = "city-list-header" >
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< span > 监控城市</ span >
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< span class = "city-count" id = "cityCount" > 0</ span >
</ div >
< div id = "cityListItems" class = "city-list-items" >
<!-- Dynamically populated -->
</ div >
</ nav >
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< aside id = "panel" class = "detail-panel hidden" >
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< div class = "panel-header" >
< button class = "panel-close" id = "panelClose" > ✕</ button >
< div class = "panel-title-area" >
< h2 id = "panelCityName" > —</ h2 >
< div class = "panel-meta" >
< span id = "panelRiskBadge" class = "risk-badge" > —</ span >
< span id = "panelLocalTime" class = "local-time" > —</ span >
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< button class = "history-btn" id = "btnShowHistory" title = "查看历史记录与准确率" > 历史对账</ button >
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</ div >
</ div >
</ div >
< div id = "panelContent" class = "panel-body" >
< section class = "hero-section" >
< div class = "hero-weather" id = "heroWeather" ></ div >
< div class = "hero-temp" >
< span class = "hero-value" id = "heroTemp" > —</ span >
< span class = "hero-unit" id = "heroUnit" > °C</ span >
</ div >
< div class = "hero-max-time" id = "heroMaxTime" ></ div >
< div class = "hero-details" >
< div class = "hero-item" >
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< span class = "label" > 当前实测</ span >
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< span class = "value" id = "heroCurrent" > —</ span >
</ div >
< div class = "hero-item" >
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< span class = "label" > WU 结算参考</ span >
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< span class = "value highlight" id = "heroWU" > —</ span >
</ div >
< div class = "hero-item" >
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< span class = "label" > DEB 预测</ span >
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< span class = "value" id = "heroDEB" > —</ span >
</ div >
</ div >
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< div class = "hero-sub" id = "heroSub" ></ div >
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</ section >
< section class = "chart-section" >
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< h3 > 今日温度走势</ h3 >
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< div class = "chart-wrapper" >
< canvas id = "tempChart" ></ canvas >
</ div >
< div class = "chart-legend" id = "chartLegend" ></ div >
</ section >
< section class = "prob-section" >
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< h3 > 结算概率分布</ h3 >
< div id = "probBars" class = "prob-bars" ></ div >
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</ section >
< section class = "models-section" >
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< h3 > 多模型预报</ h3 >
< div id = "modelBars" class = "model-bars" ></ div >
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</ section >
< section class = "forecast-section" >
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< h3 > 多日预报</ h3 >
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< div id = "forecastTable" class = "forecast-table" ></ div >
< div class = "sun-info" id = "sunInfo" ></ div >
</ section >
< section class = "ai-section" >
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< h3 > AI 深度分析</ h3 >
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< div id = "aiAnalysis" class = "ai-box" >
< span class = "ai-placeholder" > 点击城市后加载...</ span >
</ div >
</ section >
< section class = "risk-section" >
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< h3 > 数据偏差风险</ h3 >
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< div id = "riskInfo" class = "risk-info" ></ div >
</ section >
</ div >
</ aside >
< div id = "loading" class = "loading-overlay hidden" >
< div class = "loading-spinner" ></ div >
< span > 正在获取气象数据，请稍候...</ span >
</ div >
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<!-- 鈹€鈹€ Technical Guide Modal 鈹€鈹€ -->
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< div id = "guideModal" class = "modal-overlay hidden" >
< div class = "modal-content large" >
< div class = "modal-header" >
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< h2 > 📚 PolyWeather 系统技术说明 </ h2 >
< button class = "modal-close" id = "guideModalClose" > ✕ </ button >
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</ div >
< div class = "modal-body" >
< div class = "guide-grid" >
< div class = "guide-card" >
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< h3 > 🧮 DEB 动态融合预测 </ h3 >
< p >< b > Dynamic Ensemble Blending</ b > 是系统的核心预测层。它不是对 ECMWF、 GFS、 ICON、 GEM、 JMA 等模型的简单平均，而是结合最近样本表现、当前实况与城市偏置后得到的动态加权结果。 </ p >
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</ div >
< div class = "guide-card" >
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< h3 > 🎯 结算概率引擎 </ h3 >
< p > 右侧的结算概率分布基于 DEB 预测值与多模型离散度动态计算。μ代表当前分布中心，会随着模型、实况和时间变化而变动，不是固定预报值。 </ p >
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</ div >
< div class = "guide-card" >
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< h3 > ✈️ 结算点与主观测源 </ h3 >
< p > Polymarket 结算逻辑以机场 METAR 为主。系统现在优先使用 Aviation Weather API 的机场报文与原始 METAR，并区分观测时间与接收时间，避免把发布延迟误认成温度变化。 </ p >
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</ div >
< div class = "guide-card" >
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< h3 > 📍 Ankara 专属增强 </ h3 >
< p > Ankara 不走通用城市逻辑。结算主站以 LTAC / Esenboğ a 为准，周边领先信号优先参考 Turkish MGM 站网，其中 < b > Ankara (Bö lge/Center)</ b > 是重点监控站，不由 Etimesgut 代替。 </ p >
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</ div >
< div class = "guide-card" >
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< h3 > 📆 未来日期分析 </ h3 >
< p > 点击多日预报后打开的模态框，主要用于分析下一个交易日。 6-48 小时趋势以 weather.gov 和 Open-Meteo 为主，部分城市可会补充 Meteoblue； 0-2 小时临近判断则优先看 METAR 与周边站。 </ p >
</ div >
< div class = "guide-card" >
< h3 > 📊 历史对账规则 </ h3 >
< p > 历史准确率对账只统计已结算的样本。网页端采用近 15天滚动视图，机器人 /deb 报告采用近 7天窗口，不把当天未结算的样本算入胜率和 MAE。 </ p >
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</ div >
</ div >
< div class = "guide-footer" >
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< p > ※ 数据源以 Aviation Weather / METAR、 Turkish MGM、 Open-Meteo、 weather.gov 为主，部分城市补充 Meteoblue。 </ p >
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</ div >
</ div >
</ div >
</ div >
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<!-- 鈹€鈹€ History Chart Modal 鈹€鈹€ -->
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< div id = "historyModal" class = "modal-overlay hidden" >
< div class = "modal-content" >
< div class = "modal-header" >
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< h2 > 📊 < span id = "historyModalTitle" > 历史准确率对账 </ span ></ h2 >
< button class = "modal-close" id = "historyModalClose" > ✕ </ button >
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</ div >
< div class = "modal-body" >
< div class = "history-stats" id = "historyStats" ></ div >
< div class = "history-chart-wrapper" >
< canvas id = "historyChart" ></ canvas >
</ div >
</ div >
</ div >
</ div >
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< div id = "futureForecastModal" class = "modal-overlay hidden" >
< div class = "modal-content large future-modal" >
< div class = "modal-header" >
< h2 > 📆 < span id = "futureForecastTitle" > 未来日期分析 </ span ></ h2 >
< button class = "modal-close" id = "futureForecastClose" aria-label = "关闭未来日期分析" > ✕ </ button >
</ div >
< div class = "modal-body future-modal-body" >
< div class = "history-stats" id = "futureForecastStats" ></ div >
< section class = "future-modal-section" >
< h3 > 📈 温度走势 </ h3 >
< div class = "history-chart-wrapper future-chart-wrapper" >
< canvas id = "futureForecastChart" ></ canvas >
</ div >
</ section >
< div class = "future-modal-grid" >
< section class = "future-modal-section" >
< h3 > 🎯 结算概率分布 </ h3 >
< div id = "futureProbBars" class = "prob-bars future-prob-bars" ></ div >
</ section >
< section class = "future-modal-section" >
< h3 > 🧮 多模型预报 </ h3 >
< div id = "futureModelBars" class = "model-bars" ></ div >
</ section >
</ div >
< div class = "future-modal-grid" >
< section class = "future-modal-section" >
< h3 >< span class = "section-inline-icon" aria-hidden = "true" >< svg viewBox = "0 0 24 24" fill = "none" stroke = "currentColor" stroke-width = "1.9" stroke-linecap = "round" stroke-linejoin = "round" >< path d = "M4 19V5" />< path d = "M10 19V10" />< path d = "M16 19V7" />< path d = "M22 19V13" /></ svg ></ span > 未来 6-48 小时趋势 </ h3 >
< div id = "futureTrendGrid" class = "future-trend-grid" ></ div >
</ section >
< section class = "future-modal-section" >
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< h3 id = "futureNowcastTitle" > ⏱ 目标日午后峰值窗口 </ h3 >
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< div id = "futureNowcast" class = "future-text-block" ></ div >
</ section >
</ div >
</ div >
</ div >
</ div >
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