body:"Dynamic Ensemble Blending (DEB) is the core prediction layer. It is not a simple average across ECMWF/GFS/ICON/GEM/JMA, but a dynamically weighted blend adjusted by recent model performance, current observations, and city bias.",
title:"DEB Dynamic Fusion",
},
{
body:"Settlement probability distribution is dynamically computed from DEB forecast and model spread. μ is the current distribution center and shifts with model updates, observations, and time.",
title:"Settlement Probability Engine",
},
{
body:"Polymarket settlement follows airport METAR observations. The system prioritizes Aviation Weather API raw METAR and distinguishes observation time from receipt time to avoid misreading publication delay as temperature change.",
title:"Settlement Source Logic",
},
{
body:"Ankara does not follow the generic city path. LTAC / Esenboğa is the settlement station, with Turkish MGM network for leading signals. Ankara (Bölge/Center) is a key station and is not replaced by Etimesgut.",
title:"Ankara-specific Enhancement",
},
{
body:"The multi-day modal focuses on next-session analysis. 6-48h trend mainly relies on weather.gov and Open-Meteo, with Meteoblue in selected cities; 0-2h nowcast prioritizes METAR and nearby stations.",
title:"Future-date Analysis",
},
{
body:"History reconciliation only uses settled samples. The web dashboard uses a rolling 15-day window and excludes same-day unsettled samples from hit-rate and MAE.",