An intelligent weather bot for prediction markets and professional weather betting. Fetches ultra-fresh data directly from global weather stations, bypassing CDN caches, and provides automated trend analysis with **model consensus scoring** and **entry timing signals** in plain language.
> Local machine is for editing code and Git push only. IDE import errors are expected (dependencies not installed locally) and do not affect VPS operation.
| ⚠️ **Low** | Spread > 1.5°C / 3.0°F | Major divergence — high uncertainty, wait for more data |
Sources compared: Open-Meteo (OM), Meteoblue (MB), NWS, MGM — only **independent** forecast sources. Ensemble median is deliberately excluded to avoid double-counting with Open-Meteo.
### 4. 📊 Ensemble Forecast Spread (NEW)
Fetches 51-member ensemble forecasts from Open-Meteo to quantify prediction uncertainty:
> 📊 **Ensemble**: Median 10.8°C, 90% range [9.5°C - 12.1°C], spread 2.6°.
A tight range = high confidence in the forecast. A wide range = the atmosphere is chaotic, higher risk.
### 5. ⏰ Entry Timing Signal (NEW)
A composite score combining three factors to advise on betting timing:
| Factor | Score |
|:---|:---|
| Peak already passed | +3 |
| ≤ 2h to peak | +2 |
| ≤ 4h to peak | +1 |
| Model consensus: High | +2 |
| Model consensus: Medium | +1 |
| Actual ≈ Forecast (gap ≤ 0.5°) | +2 |
| Actual close to Forecast (gap ≤ 1.5°) | +1 |
| Total ≥ | Signal | Advice |
|:---|:---|:---|
| 5 | ⏰ **Ideal** | Low uncertainty — good to bet |
- **☀️ Weather Condition Summary**: Synthesizes METAR phenomena + cloud cover into a single glanceable icon + text (e.g., `⛅ Partly Cloudy`).
- **🌤️ Solar Radiation Analysis**: Tracks cumulative shortwave radiation vs. daily total; warns when clouds severely block sunlight.
- **🌙 Warm Advection Detection**: Identifies when peak temperature occurred during zero-radiation hours (e.g., 3 AM), proving the high was driven by warm air mass rather than solar heating.
1.**Check Model Consensus**: The 🎯/⚖️/⚠️ rating tells you immediately if the forecast is reliable.
2.**Use the Entry Signal**: Wait for ⏰ **Ideal** or **Good** timing before placing bets. Don't bet early when uncertainty is high.
3.**Watch Ensemble Spread**: A tight 90% band (< 2°) means model confidence is high — this is where edges live.
4.**Watch the Peak Window**: Use `/city` frequently during predicted peak hours.
5.**Settlement Priority**: Settlement is always based on **METAR** data, rounded to integer via Wunderground.
6.**Geographic Risk**: Pay attention to bias warnings, especially for high-risk cities like Seoul and Chicago.
7.**Solar Radiation Clues**: If the bot reports "warm advection driven" 🌙, the temperature was pushed by warm air, not sunlight — this pattern often breaks model predictions.
8.**Wind Conflicts**: When METAR and MGM show opposite wind directions, expect temperature volatility.
