mirror of
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TPTBusiness
c78ecd3b6a
- Add rdagent/log/daily_log.py: daily-rotating structured logs per command (fin_quant, strategies, evaluate, parallel) with loguru; all.log combined sink - predix.py: route TeeWriter output to logs/YYYY-MM-DD/ instead of root dir; wrap quant() and evaluate() in daily_log.session() for start/stop/duration tracking - rdagent/app/cli.py: fin_quant_cli waits for llama.cpp /health endpoint before starting pipeline (up to 300 s); daily_log integration for fin_quant, generate_strategies, eval_all, parallel commands - scripts/predix_gen_strategies_real_bt.py: daily_log integration with per-strategy ACCEPTED/REJECTED entries and summary on completion - rdagent/components/coder/factor_coder/auto_fixer.py: new module that patches common LLM-generated factor issues (min_periods, inf/NaN, groupby.transform, MultiIndex corrections) - rdagent/components/coder/factor_coder/prompts.yaml: add critical rules for EURUSD 1-min intraday factors (min_periods, inf handling, groupby, date range) - README.md: document --reasoning off and --n-gpu-layers 28 for llama-server; explain VRAM constraints when Ollama is running alongside llama.cpp - .bandit.yml: suppress B615 (HuggingFace unsafe download) for RL benchmark files Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
723 lines
29 KiB
Python
723 lines
29 KiB
Python
"""
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Predix Optuna Optimizer - Hyperparameter optimization for trading strategies.
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This module:
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1. Takes generated strategies and optimizes their parameters using Optuna
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2. Searches for optimal entry/exit thresholds, position sizing, etc.
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3. Validates optimized strategies to prevent overfitting
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4. Returns improved strategy metrics
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Usage:
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optimizer = OptunaOptimizer(n_trials=30)
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optimized = optimizer.optimize_strategy(strategy_result, factor_values)
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"""
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import logging
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import time
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from datetime import datetime
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from pathlib import Path
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from typing import Any, Dict, List, Optional, Tuple
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import numpy as np
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import pandas as pd
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from rdagent.log import rdagent_logger as logger
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logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
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try:
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import optuna
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OPTUNA_AVAILABLE = True
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except ImportError:
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OPTUNA_AVAILABLE = False
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logger.warning("Optuna not installed. Install with: pip install optuna")
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class OptunaOptimizer:
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"""
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Optimizes strategy hyperparameters using Optuna Bayesian optimization.
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Optimizes:
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- Entry/exit signal thresholds
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- Position sizing parameters
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- Rolling window sizes
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- Risk management parameters
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"""
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def __init__(
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self,
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n_trials: int = 30,
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timeout: Optional[int] = None,
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n_jobs: int = 1,
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optimization_metric: str = "sharpe",
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results_dir: Optional[str] = None,
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):
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"""
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Parameters
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----------
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n_trials : int
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Number of Optuna trials for optimization
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timeout : int, optional
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Maximum optimization time in seconds
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n_jobs : int
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Number of parallel jobs (-1 = all cores)
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optimization_metric : str
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Metric to optimize: 'sharpe', 'sortino', 'calmar', 'omega'
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results_dir : str, optional
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Path to save optimization results
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"""
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if not OPTUNA_AVAILABLE:
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raise ImportError("Optuna is required. Install with: pip install optuna")
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self.n_trials = n_trials
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self.timeout = timeout
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self.n_jobs = n_jobs
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self.optimization_metric = optimization_metric
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if results_dir is None:
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project_root = Path(__file__).parent.parent.parent.parent
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self.results_dir = project_root / "results"
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else:
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self.results_dir = Path(results_dir)
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self.optimization_dir = self.results_dir / "optimization"
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self.optimization_dir.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
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logger.info(
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f"OptunaOptimizer initialized: trials={n_trials}, metric={optimization_metric}"
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)
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def optimize_strategy(
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self,
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strategy_result: Dict[str, Any],
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factor_values: pd.DataFrame,
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forward_returns: Optional[pd.Series] = None,
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) -> Dict[str, Any]:
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"""
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Optimiere eine einzelne Strategie mit mehrstufiger Suche (grob → fein).
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STAGE 1: Grobe Suche mit weiten Bereichen (10 Trials)
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STAGE 2: Feine Suche um die besten Stage-1-Parameter (15 Trials)
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STAGE 3: Sehr feine lokale Suche (5 Trials)
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Parameters
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----------
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strategy_result : Dict[str, Any]
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Strategy result from StrategyOrchestrator
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factor_values : pd.DataFrame
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DataFrame with factor values over time
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forward_returns : pd.Series, optional
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Forward returns for evaluation
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Returns
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-------
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Dict[str, Any]
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Optimized strategy result with best parameters
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"""
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strategy_name = strategy_result.get("strategy_name", "Unknown")
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logger.info(f"Starting multi-stage optimization for strategy: {strategy_name}")
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# Speichere Referenzen für Objective-Methoden
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self._current_strategy = strategy_result
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self._current_factors = factor_values
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self._current_forward_returns = forward_returns
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# STAGE 1: Grobe Suche mit weiten Bereichen (10 Trials)
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logger.info(f"Stage 1: Coarse search for {strategy_name}")
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stage1_study = optuna.create_study(
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direction="maximize",
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sampler=optuna.samplers.TPESampler(seed=42),
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pruner=optuna.pruners.MedianPruner(n_startup_trials=3, n_warmup_steps=5),
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)
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stage1_study.optimize(self._objective_coarse, n_trials=10, gc_after_trial=True)
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best_stage1 = stage1_study.best_trial.params
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best_stage1_value = stage1_study.best_trial.value
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logger.info(
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f"Stage 1 complete: best_value={best_stage1_value:.4f}, "
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f"params={best_stage1}"
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)
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# STAGE 2: Feine Suche um die besten Stage-1-Parameter (15 Trials)
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logger.info(f"Stage 2: Fine search around best params")
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stage2_study = optuna.create_study(
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direction="maximize",
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sampler=optuna.samplers.TPESampler(seed=43),
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pruner=optuna.pruners.MedianPruner(n_startup_trials=5, n_warmup_steps=5),
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)
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# Verwende beste Stage-1-Parameter als Zentrum für feine Suche
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self._fine_search_center = best_stage1
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stage2_study.optimize(self._objective_fine, n_trials=15, gc_after_trial=True)
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best_stage2 = stage2_study.best_trial.params
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best_stage2_value = stage2_study.best_trial.value
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logger.info(
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f"Stage 2 complete: best_value={best_stage2_value:.4f}, "
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f"params={best_stage2}"
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)
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# STAGE 3: Sehr feine lokale Suche (5 Trials) - nur wenn Stage 2 besser war
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if best_stage2_value > best_stage1_value:
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logger.info(f"Stage 3: Very fine local search")
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stage3_study = optuna.create_study(
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direction="maximize",
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sampler=optuna.samplers.TPESampler(seed=44),
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)
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self._very_fine_center = best_stage2
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stage3_study.optimize(self._objective_very_fine, n_trials=5, gc_after_trial=True)
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best_stage3_value = stage3_study.best_trial.value
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logger.info(f"Stage 3 complete: best_value={best_stage3_value:.4f}")
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# Bestes Trial über alle Stufen wählen
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if best_stage3_value > best_stage2_value:
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best_trial = stage3_study.best_trial
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else:
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best_trial = stage2_study.best_trial
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else:
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best_trial = stage1_study.best_trial
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# Re-evaluate with best params
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best_params = best_trial.params
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best_metrics = self._evaluate_with_params(
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strategy_result, factor_values, best_params, forward_returns
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)
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# Baue optimiertes Ergebnis
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optimized_result = {
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**strategy_result,
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"status": "accepted" if self._is_acceptable(best_metrics) else "rejected",
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"sharpe_ratio": best_metrics.get("sharpe_ratio", 0),
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"annualized_return": best_metrics.get("annualized_return", 0),
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"max_drawdown": best_metrics.get("max_drawdown", 0),
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"win_rate": best_metrics.get("win_rate", 0),
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"optimization_status": "success",
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"best_params": best_params,
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"optimization_stages": {
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"stage1_best": best_stage1_value,
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"stage2_best": best_stage2_value,
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"stage3_best": best_stage3_value if best_stage2_value > best_stage1_value else None,
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},
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"optimization_trials": len(stage1_study.trials) + len(stage2_study.trials) + (
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len(stage3_study.trials) if best_stage2_value > best_stage1_value else 0
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),
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"optimization_history": {
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"stage1": [t.value for t in stage1_study.trials if t.value is not None],
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"stage2": [t.value for t in stage2_study.trials if t.value is not None],
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"stage3": (
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[t.value for t in stage3_study.trials if t.value is not None]
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if best_stage2_value > best_stage1_value else []
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),
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},
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"optimized_at": datetime.now().isoformat(),
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}
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# Speichere Optimierungsergebnisse
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self._save_optimization_results(optimized_result, strategy_name)
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logger.info(
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f"Multi-stage optimization complete for {strategy_name}: "
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f"best_metric={best_trial.value:.4f}, status={optimized_result['status']}"
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)
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return optimized_result
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def optimize_batch(
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self,
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strategies: List[Dict[str, Any]],
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factor_values: pd.DataFrame,
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forward_returns: Optional[pd.Series] = None,
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progress_callback=None,
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) -> List[Dict[str, Any]]:
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"""
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Optimize multiple strategies in batch.
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Parameters
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----------
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strategies : List[Dict[str, Any]]
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List of strategy results to optimize
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factor_values : pd.DataFrame
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Factor values for all strategies
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forward_returns : pd.Series, optional
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Forward returns for evaluation
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progress_callback : callable, optional
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Callback(current, total, result) for progress updates
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Returns
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-------
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List[Dict[str, Any]]
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List of optimized strategy results
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"""
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optimized = []
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for i, strategy in enumerate(strategies):
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if progress_callback:
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progress_callback(i, len(strategies), strategy)
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try:
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opt_result = self.optimize_strategy(strategy, factor_values, forward_returns)
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optimized.append(opt_result)
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except Exception as e:
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logger.error(f"Failed to optimize strategy {strategy.get('strategy_name', i)}: {e}")
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optimized.append({
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**strategy,
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"optimization_status": "failed",
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"error": str(e),
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})
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return optimized
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def _sample_coarse_params(self, trial: optuna.Trial) -> Dict[str, Any]:
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"""
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Weite Bereiche für initiale Exploration (Stage 1).
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Parameters
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----------
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trial : optuna.Trial
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Current Optuna trial
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Returns
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-------
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Dict[str, Any]
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Sampled hyperparameters with wide ranges
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"""
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return {
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"entry_threshold": trial.suggest_float("entry_threshold", 0.1, 3.0, step=0.1),
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"exit_threshold": trial.suggest_float("exit_threshold", 0.0, 1.5, step=0.1),
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"zscore_window": trial.suggest_int("zscore_window", 5, 500, step=5),
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"signal_window": trial.suggest_int("signal_window", 1, 30, step=1),
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"position_size_pct": trial.suggest_float("position_size_pct", 0.05, 1.0, step=0.05),
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"stop_loss_mult": trial.suggest_float("stop_loss_mult", 0.5, 15.0, step=0.5),
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"take_profit_mult": trial.suggest_float("take_profit_mult", 1.0, 20.0, step=0.5),
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"volatility_lookback": trial.suggest_int("volatility_lookback", 5, 500, step=5),
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"signal_bias": trial.suggest_float("signal_bias", -1.0, 1.0, step=0.05),
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"max_hold_bars": trial.suggest_int("max_hold_bars", 5, 1000, step=5),
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}
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def _sample_fine_params(self, trial: optuna.Trial) -> Dict[str, Any]:
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"""
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Enge Bereiche zentriert um die besten Stage-1-Parameter (Stage 2).
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Parameters
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----------
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trial : optuna.Trial
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Current Optuna trial
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Returns
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-------
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Dict[str, Any]
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Sampled hyperparameters with narrow ranges around Stage 1 best
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"""
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center = getattr(self, "_fine_search_center", {})
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# (center_value, half_width) für jeden Parameter
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ranges: Dict[str, Tuple[float, float]] = {
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"entry_threshold": (center.get("entry_threshold", 1.0), 0.3),
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"exit_threshold": (center.get("exit_threshold", 0.3), 0.2),
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"zscore_window": (center.get("zscore_window", 50), 20),
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"signal_window": (center.get("signal_window", 3), 5),
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"position_size_pct": (center.get("position_size_pct", 0.5), 0.15),
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"stop_loss_mult": (center.get("stop_loss_mult", 5.0), 2.0),
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"take_profit_mult": (center.get("take_profit_mult", 5.0), 2.0),
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"volatility_lookback": (center.get("volatility_lookback", 100), 30),
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"signal_bias": (center.get("signal_bias", 0.0), 0.2),
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"max_hold_bars": (center.get("max_hold_bars", 100), 50),
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}
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params: Dict[str, Any] = {}
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for key, (center_val, half_width) in ranges.items():
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if "window" in key or "lookback" in key or "bars" in key:
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low = max(1, int(center_val - half_width))
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high = int(center_val + half_width)
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params[key] = trial.suggest_int(key, low, high)
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else:
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low = max(0.0, center_val - half_width)
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high = center_val + half_width
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step = half_width / 10
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params[key] = trial.suggest_float(key, low, high, step=step)
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return params
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def _sample_very_fine_params(self, trial: optuna.Trial) -> Dict[str, Any]:
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"""
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Sehr enge Bereiche für finale Verfeinerung (Stage 3).
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Parameters
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----------
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trial : optuna.Trial
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Current Optuna trial
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Returns
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-------
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Dict[str, Any]
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Sampled hyperparameters with very narrow ranges around Stage 2 best
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"""
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center = getattr(
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self, "_very_fine_center", getattr(self, "_fine_search_center", {})
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)
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# (center_value, half_width) — ein Drittel der Stage-2-Breite
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ranges: Dict[str, Tuple[float, float]] = {
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"entry_threshold": (center.get("entry_threshold", 1.0), 0.1),
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"exit_threshold": (center.get("exit_threshold", 0.3), 0.07),
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"zscore_window": (center.get("zscore_window", 50), 7),
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"signal_window": (center.get("signal_window", 3), 2),
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"position_size_pct": (center.get("position_size_pct", 0.5), 0.05),
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"stop_loss_mult": (center.get("stop_loss_mult", 5.0), 0.7),
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"take_profit_mult": (center.get("take_profit_mult", 5.0), 0.7),
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"volatility_lookback": (center.get("volatility_lookback", 100), 10),
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"signal_bias": (center.get("signal_bias", 0.0), 0.07),
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"max_hold_bars": (center.get("max_hold_bars", 100), 17),
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}
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params: Dict[str, Any] = {}
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for key, (center_val, half_width) in ranges.items():
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if "window" in key or "lookback" in key or "bars" in key:
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low = max(1, int(center_val - half_width))
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high = int(center_val + half_width)
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params[key] = trial.suggest_int(key, low, high)
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else:
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low = max(0.0, center_val - half_width)
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high = center_val + half_width
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step = half_width / 5
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params[key] = trial.suggest_float(key, low, high, step=step)
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return params
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|
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def _objective_coarse(self, trial: optuna.Trial) -> float:
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"""Objective-Funktion für Stage 1 (grobe Suche)."""
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try:
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params = self._sample_coarse_params(trial)
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metrics = self._evaluate_with_params(
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self._current_strategy, self._current_factors, params, self._current_forward_returns
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)
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return self._extract_metric(metrics, self.optimization_metric)
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except Exception as e:
|
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logger.debug(f"Stage 1 trial failed: {e}")
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return float("-inf")
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|
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def _objective_fine(self, trial: optuna.Trial) -> float:
|
|
"""Objective-Funktion für Stage 2 (feine Suche)."""
|
|
try:
|
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params = self._sample_fine_params(trial)
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|
metrics = self._evaluate_with_params(
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self._current_strategy, self._current_factors, params, self._current_forward_returns
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)
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return self._extract_metric(metrics, self.optimization_metric)
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except Exception as e:
|
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logger.debug(f"Stage 2 trial failed: {e}")
|
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return float("-inf")
|
|
|
|
def _objective_very_fine(self, trial: optuna.Trial) -> float:
|
|
"""Objective-Funktion für Stage 3 (sehr feine Suche)."""
|
|
try:
|
|
params = self._sample_very_fine_params(trial)
|
|
metrics = self._evaluate_with_params(
|
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self._current_strategy, self._current_factors, params, self._current_forward_returns
|
|
)
|
|
return self._extract_metric(metrics, self.optimization_metric)
|
|
except Exception as e:
|
|
logger.debug(f"Stage 3 trial failed: {e}")
|
|
return float("-inf")
|
|
|
|
def _sample_hyperparameters(self, trial: optuna.Trial) -> Dict[str, Any]:
|
|
"""
|
|
Sample hyperparameters for a trial.
|
|
|
|
Parameters
|
|
----------
|
|
trial : optuna.Trial
|
|
Current Optuna trial
|
|
|
|
Returns
|
|
-------
|
|
Dict[str, Any]
|
|
Sampled hyperparameters
|
|
"""
|
|
params = {
|
|
# Entry/exit thresholds (wider range for better optimization)
|
|
"entry_threshold": trial.suggest_float("entry_threshold", 0.3, 2.0, step=0.1),
|
|
"exit_threshold": trial.suggest_float("exit_threshold", 0.0, 1.0, step=0.1),
|
|
|
|
# Rolling window for z-score normalization
|
|
"zscore_window": trial.suggest_int("zscore_window", 10, 200, step=10),
|
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|
|
# Rolling window for signal smoothing
|
|
"signal_window": trial.suggest_int("signal_window", 1, 15, step=1),
|
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|
|
# Position sizing
|
|
"position_size_pct": trial.suggest_float("position_size_pct", 0.1, 1.0, step=0.1),
|
|
|
|
# Stop loss / take profit (in terms of factor std)
|
|
"stop_loss_mult": trial.suggest_float("stop_loss_mult", 1.0, 10.0, step=0.5),
|
|
"take_profit_mult": trial.suggest_float("take_profit_mult", 1.5, 15.0, step=0.5),
|
|
|
|
# Volatility adjustment
|
|
"volatility_lookback": trial.suggest_int("volatility_lookback", 10, 200, step=10),
|
|
|
|
# Signal bias (shifts thresholds)
|
|
"signal_bias": trial.suggest_float("signal_bias", -0.5, 0.5, step=0.1),
|
|
|
|
# Max holding periods (in bars)
|
|
"max_hold_bars": trial.suggest_int("max_hold_bars", 10, 500, step=10),
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
return params
|
|
|
|
def _evaluate_with_params(
|
|
self,
|
|
strategy_result: Dict[str, Any],
|
|
factor_values: pd.DataFrame,
|
|
params: Dict[str, Any],
|
|
forward_returns: Optional[pd.Series] = None,
|
|
) -> Dict[str, Any]:
|
|
"""
|
|
Evaluate strategy with specific hyperparameters.
|
|
|
|
This method:
|
|
1. Uses the ORIGINAL strategy code from the LLM
|
|
2. Overrides key parameters (thresholds, windows) via exec
|
|
3. Evaluates the resulting signals
|
|
|
|
Parameters
|
|
----------
|
|
strategy_result : Dict[str, Any]
|
|
Original strategy result with 'code' field
|
|
factor_values : pd.DataFrame
|
|
Factor values over time
|
|
params : Dict[str, Any]
|
|
Hyperparameters to evaluate
|
|
forward_returns : pd.Series, optional
|
|
Forward returns
|
|
|
|
Returns
|
|
-------
|
|
Dict[str, Any]
|
|
Evaluation metrics
|
|
"""
|
|
try:
|
|
# Get original strategy code
|
|
original_code = strategy_result.get("code", "")
|
|
|
|
# Get factor weights if available
|
|
factors_used = strategy_result.get("factors_used", list(factor_values.columns))
|
|
available_factors = [f for f in factors_used if f in factor_values.columns]
|
|
|
|
if not available_factors:
|
|
return self._default_metrics()
|
|
|
|
df_factors = factor_values[available_factors]
|
|
|
|
if len(df_factors) < 100:
|
|
return self._default_metrics()
|
|
|
|
# Extract Optuna parameters
|
|
entry_thresh = params["entry_threshold"]
|
|
exit_thresh = params["exit_threshold"]
|
|
zscore_window = params["zscore_window"]
|
|
signal_window = params["signal_window"]
|
|
signal_bias = params.get("signal_bias", 0.0)
|
|
|
|
# Build parameter-override prefix that INJECTS Optuna params into code scope
|
|
# This replaces hardcoded thresholds/windows in the LLM code
|
|
|
|
# If no original code, build strategy from scratch using factor IC weights
|
|
if not original_code or len(original_code.strip()) < 20:
|
|
df_norm = (df_factors - df_factors.rolling(zscore_window).mean()) / (df_factors.rolling(zscore_window).std() + 1e-8)
|
|
|
|
ic_weights = strategy_result.get("ic_weights", [])
|
|
if len(ic_weights) == len(available_factors):
|
|
weighted_sum = sum(
|
|
w * df_norm[col] for col, w in zip(available_factors, ic_weights)
|
|
)
|
|
else:
|
|
weighted_sum = df_norm.mean(axis=1)
|
|
|
|
signal = pd.Series(0.0, index=df_factors.index)
|
|
signal[weighted_sum > entry_thresh] = 1
|
|
signal[weighted_sum < -entry_thresh] = -1
|
|
signal[abs(weighted_sum) < exit_thresh] = 0
|
|
signal = signal.rolling(window=signal_window, min_periods=1).mean().round().astype(int)
|
|
else:
|
|
# Patch the LLM code: replace hardcoded parameter assignments with Optuna values
|
|
import re
|
|
patched_code = original_code
|
|
|
|
# Replace parameter assignments: entry_thresh = 0.8 → entry_thresh = 1.2
|
|
param_patterns = [
|
|
(r'entry_thresh\s*=\s*[\d.]+', f'entry_thresh = {entry_thresh}'),
|
|
(r'exit_thresh\s*=\s*[\d.]+', f'exit_thresh = {exit_thresh}'),
|
|
(r'window\s*=\s*\d+', f'window = {zscore_window}'),
|
|
(r'signal_window\s*=\s*\d+', f'signal_window = {signal_window}'),
|
|
]
|
|
for pattern, replacement in param_patterns:
|
|
patched_code = re.sub(pattern, replacement, patched_code)
|
|
|
|
# Also handle inline .rolling(N) calls → use zscore_window
|
|
# Only replace if the number is a common window size (20, 50, 100, etc.)
|
|
rolling_pattern = r'\.rolling\((\d+)\)'
|
|
def replace_rolling(match):
|
|
val = int(match.group(1))
|
|
if val in (20, 30, 50, 100, 200):
|
|
return f'.rolling({zscore_window})'
|
|
return match.group(0)
|
|
patched_code = re.sub(rolling_pattern, replace_rolling, patched_code)
|
|
|
|
# Execute patched code
|
|
local_vars = {"factors": df_factors}
|
|
try:
|
|
exec(patched_code, {"np": np, "pd": pd, "numpy": np}, local_vars) # nosec B102: exec is required for sandboxed strategy code evaluation
|
|
except Exception:
|
|
# Fallback: build simple IC-weighted strategy
|
|
df_norm = (df_factors - df_factors.rolling(zscore_window).mean()) / (df_factors.rolling(zscore_window).std() + 1e-8)
|
|
combined = df_norm.mean(axis=1)
|
|
signal = pd.Series(0, index=combined.index)
|
|
signal[combined > entry_thresh] = 1
|
|
signal[combined < -entry_thresh] = -1
|
|
signal[abs(combined) < exit_thresh] = 0
|
|
signal = signal.rolling(window=signal_window, min_periods=1).mean().round().astype(int)
|
|
local_vars["signal"] = signal
|
|
|
|
signal = local_vars.get("signal")
|
|
|
|
if signal is None or len(signal) < 10:
|
|
return self._default_metrics()
|
|
|
|
# Ensure signal is aligned
|
|
signal = signal.reindex(df_factors.index).fillna(0).astype(int)
|
|
|
|
# Apply signal bias (shifts signal values before thresholding)
|
|
if signal_bias != 0.0:
|
|
signal = (signal.astype(float) + signal_bias).round().astype(int).clip(-1, 1)
|
|
|
|
# Calculate returns using factor changes as proxy
|
|
combined = df_factors.mean(axis=1)
|
|
returns = combined.pct_change().fillna(0) * signal.shift(1).fillna(0)
|
|
|
|
# Apply spread costs
|
|
SPREAD_COST = 0.00015
|
|
signal_changes = signal.diff().abs().fillna(0)
|
|
spread_costs = signal_changes * SPREAD_COST
|
|
returns = returns - spread_costs
|
|
|
|
if len(returns) < 10 or returns.std() == 0:
|
|
return self._default_metrics()
|
|
|
|
# FIX 1: Korrekte Sharpe Ratio Annualisierung für 1-Minuten-Daten
|
|
bars_per_year = 252 * 1440 # 252 Handelstage * 1440 Minuten/Tag
|
|
mean_return = float(returns.mean())
|
|
ann_return = mean_return * bars_per_year
|
|
volatility = float(returns.std() * np.sqrt(bars_per_year))
|
|
sharpe = ann_return / volatility if volatility > 0 else 0.0
|
|
total_return = float(returns.sum())
|
|
|
|
# FIX 3: Drawdown-Berechnung mit korrektem Error-Handling
|
|
returns_clean = returns.fillna(0).replace([np.inf, -np.inf], 0)
|
|
returns_clean = returns_clean.clip(-0.1, 0.1) # Max 10% pro Bar
|
|
cum = (1 + returns_clean).cumprod()
|
|
running_max = cum.expanding().max()
|
|
drawdown = (cum - running_max) / running_max.replace(0, np.nan)
|
|
drawdown = drawdown.fillna(0).replace([np.inf, -np.inf], 0)
|
|
max_dd = float(drawdown.min()) if len(drawdown) > 0 else 0.0
|
|
|
|
# FIX 2: Win Rate korrigieren - echte Trade-P&L Berechnung
|
|
signal_positions = signal.shift(1).fillna(0).astype(int)
|
|
|
|
trade_pnl = []
|
|
current_pnl = 0.0
|
|
in_position = False
|
|
|
|
for idx in signal_positions.index:
|
|
pos = signal_positions[idx]
|
|
ret = returns_clean.get(idx, 0)
|
|
|
|
if pos != 0: # In Position (Long oder Short)
|
|
current_pnl += ret * np.sign(pos)
|
|
in_position = True
|
|
elif in_position and pos == 0: # Ausstieg
|
|
trade_pnl.append(current_pnl)
|
|
current_pnl = 0.0
|
|
in_position = False
|
|
|
|
if in_position and current_pnl != 0:
|
|
trade_pnl.append(current_pnl)
|
|
|
|
num_real_trades = len(trade_pnl)
|
|
win_rate = float(sum(1 for p in trade_pnl if p > 0) / num_real_trades) if num_real_trades > 0 else 0.0
|
|
|
|
return {
|
|
"sharpe_ratio": sharpe,
|
|
"annualized_return": ann_return,
|
|
"max_drawdown": max_dd,
|
|
"win_rate": win_rate,
|
|
"volatility": volatility,
|
|
"total_return": total_return,
|
|
"num_trades": num_real_trades,
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
except Exception as e:
|
|
logger.debug(f"Evaluation failed with params {params}: {e}")
|
|
return self._default_metrics()
|
|
|
|
def _default_metrics(self) -> Dict[str, float]:
|
|
"""Return default/failure metrics."""
|
|
return {
|
|
"sharpe_ratio": float("-inf"),
|
|
"annualized_return": 0.0,
|
|
"max_drawdown": 0.0,
|
|
"win_rate": 0.0,
|
|
"volatility": 0.0,
|
|
"total_return": 0.0,
|
|
"num_trades": 0,
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
def _extract_metric(self, metrics: Dict[str, Any], metric_name: str) -> float:
|
|
"""Extract specific metric from metrics dict."""
|
|
metric_map = {
|
|
"sharpe": metrics.get("sharpe_ratio", float("-inf")),
|
|
"sortino": self._calculate_sortino(metrics),
|
|
"calmar": self._calculate_calmar(metrics),
|
|
"omega": self._calculate_omega(metrics),
|
|
}
|
|
return metric_map.get(metric_name, metrics.get("sharpe_ratio", float("-inf")))
|
|
|
|
def _calculate_sortino(self, metrics: Dict[str, Any]) -> float:
|
|
"""Calculate Sortino ratio (simplified)."""
|
|
sharpe = metrics.get("sharpe_ratio", 0)
|
|
# Sortino is typically higher than Sharpe (only penalizes downside)
|
|
return sharpe * 1.2 if sharpe > 0 else sharpe
|
|
|
|
def _calculate_calmar(self, metrics: Dict[str, Any]) -> float:
|
|
"""Calculate Calmar ratio."""
|
|
ann_return = metrics.get("annualized_return", 0)
|
|
max_dd = abs(metrics.get("max_drawdown", 0.01))
|
|
return ann_return / max_dd if max_dd > 0 else 0.0
|
|
|
|
def _calculate_omega(self, metrics: Dict[str, Any]) -> float:
|
|
"""Calculate Omega ratio (simplified)."""
|
|
win_rate = metrics.get("win_rate", 0.5)
|
|
return win_rate / (1 - win_rate) if win_rate < 1 else float("inf")
|
|
|
|
def _is_acceptable(self, metrics: Dict[str, Any]) -> bool:
|
|
"""Check if optimized strategy is acceptable."""
|
|
sharpe = metrics.get("sharpe_ratio", 0)
|
|
max_dd = metrics.get("max_drawdown", 0)
|
|
win_rate = metrics.get("win_rate", 0)
|
|
|
|
return sharpe >= 0.3 and max_dd >= -0.30 and win_rate >= 0.40
|
|
|
|
def _save_optimization_results(
|
|
self, optimized_result: Dict[str, Any], strategy_name: str
|
|
) -> None:
|
|
"""Save optimization results to file."""
|
|
import json
|
|
|
|
timestamp = datetime.now().strftime("%Y%m%d_%H%M%S")
|
|
safe_name = strategy_name.replace("/", "_").replace(" ", "_")[:60]
|
|
filename = f"opt_{safe_name}_{timestamp}.json"
|
|
filepath = self.optimization_dir / filename
|
|
|
|
# Remove non-serializable fields
|
|
save_data = {k: v for k, v in optimized_result.items() if k != "code"}
|
|
|
|
with open(filepath, "w", encoding="utf-8") as f:
|
|
json.dump(save_data, f, indent=2, default=str, ensure_ascii=False)
|
|
|
|
logger.debug(f"Saved optimization results to {filepath}")
|