""" Oracle + consistency tests for the unified backtest engine. Every metric is checked against a value we can reproduce by hand (or via vectorbt). Same ``(close, signal)`` inputs must yield the same numbers no matter which call-site is used. """ from __future__ import annotations import numpy as np import pandas as pd import pytest from rdagent.components.backtesting.vbt_backtest import ( DEFAULT_BARS_PER_YEAR, backtest_from_forward_returns, backtest_signal, ) # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Fixtures # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- @pytest.fixture def flat_close() -> pd.Series: """Constant close: any signal should produce zero returns.""" idx = pd.date_range("2024-01-01", periods=1000, freq="1min") return pd.Series(100.0, index=idx) @pytest.fixture def trending_close() -> pd.Series: """Monotonically increasing close (0.01% per bar).""" idx = pd.date_range("2024-01-01", periods=1000, freq="1min") return pd.Series(100.0 * (1.0001 ** np.arange(1000)), index=idx) @pytest.fixture def random_close() -> pd.Series: np.random.seed(42) idx = pd.date_range("2024-01-01", periods=5000, freq="1min") return pd.Series(100.0 + np.random.randn(5000).cumsum() * 0.05, index=idx) # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Oracle tests — numbers we can verify by hand # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- def test_flat_close_all_long_returns_zero(flat_close): """Constant price → strategy returns are exactly −cost per position-change bar.""" signal = pd.Series(1.0, index=flat_close.index) r = backtest_signal(flat_close, signal, txn_cost_bps=1.5) # Only one position change (bar 0 → long 1.0): total cost = 1 * 1.5e-4. assert r["status"] == "success" assert r["total_return"] == pytest.approx(-1.5e-4, abs=1e-8) assert r["n_trades"] == 1 # one open trade (still in position at end) # Flat price → zero variance → sharpe cannot be computed; returned as 0. # But cost introduces a tiny constant return, so std is 0 and sharpe is 0. def test_trending_close_always_long_matches_price_return(trending_close): """ position=+1 always → strategy return per bar ≈ bar_ret (minus one-time cost). total_return should equal (close[-1]/close[0]) - 1 minus the entry cost. """ signal = pd.Series(1.0, index=trending_close.index) r = backtest_signal(trending_close, signal, txn_cost_bps=1.5) price_tr = trending_close.iloc[-1] / trending_close.iloc[0] - 1 # Manual: product over (1 + bar_ret - one-time cost at bar 0). bar_ret = trending_close.pct_change().fillna(0) position = signal.shift(1).fillna(0) position_change = position.diff().abs().fillna(position.abs()) expected_total = float(((1 + position * bar_ret - position_change * 1.5e-4).prod()) - 1) assert r["total_return"] == pytest.approx(expected_total, rel=1e-9) # Within 1 bp of the raw price trend. assert abs(r["total_return"] - price_tr) < 2e-4 def test_always_flat_returns_zero(random_close): signal = pd.Series(0.0, index=random_close.index) r = backtest_signal(random_close, signal, txn_cost_bps=1.5) assert r["total_return"] == 0.0 assert r["sharpe"] == 0.0 assert r["max_drawdown"] == 0.0 assert r["n_trades"] == 0 assert r["n_position_changes"] == 0 def test_sharpe_annualization_uses_1min_bars(random_close): """Sharpe must use √(252*1440), not √252.""" np.random.seed(0) signal = pd.Series(np.random.choice([-1, 0, 1], size=len(random_close)), index=random_close.index) r = backtest_signal(random_close, signal, txn_cost_bps=0.0) # no cost → clean check # Reproduce manually. bar_ret = random_close.pct_change().fillna(0) position = signal.astype(float).shift(1).fillna(0) strat_ret = position * bar_ret expected_sharpe = strat_ret.mean() / strat_ret.std() * np.sqrt(DEFAULT_BARS_PER_YEAR) assert r["sharpe"] == pytest.approx(expected_sharpe, rel=1e-9) assert r["bars_per_year"] == 252 * 1440 def test_txn_cost_applied_per_position_change(random_close): """With 50% of bars flipping, cost ≈ 0.5 * |Δposition|_mean * txn_cost_bps.""" idx = random_close.index # Alternate every bar: -1, 1, -1, 1, ... signal = pd.Series([(-1.0) ** i for i in range(len(idx))], index=idx) zero_cost = backtest_signal(random_close, signal, txn_cost_bps=0.0) with_cost = backtest_signal(random_close, signal, txn_cost_bps=10.0) # 10 bps # Cost difference = |Δposition|.sum() * 10e-4, summed over bars. # Alternating ±1 → |Δposition| = 2 per bar (except first: 1). bar_ret_diff = zero_cost["total_return"] - with_cost["total_return"] assert bar_ret_diff > 0 # with cost must be worse def test_drawdown_never_clipped(): """ A single blow-up bar must not be silently absorbed. Old code clipped returns to ±10%; the new engine reports the true drawdown and flags. """ idx = pd.date_range("2024-01-01", periods=500, freq="1min") # Prices: gentle rise, then a 20% crash at bar 250, then recovery. closes = np.concatenate( [np.linspace(100, 101, 250), [80.0], np.linspace(80, 85, 249)] ) close = pd.Series(closes, index=idx) signal = pd.Series(1.0, index=idx) r = backtest_signal(close, signal, txn_cost_bps=0.0) assert r["max_drawdown"] < -0.15 # real DD preserved assert "data_quality_flag" in r assert "extreme_returns" in r["data_quality_flag"] def test_forward_returns_ic_computation(): np.random.seed(7) idx = pd.date_range("2024-01-01", periods=2000, freq="1min") noise = pd.Series(np.random.randn(2000), index=idx) close = pd.Series(100 + noise.cumsum() * 0.01, index=idx) fwd = close.pct_change().shift(-1).fillna(0) # sign(fwd) correlates with fwd at ~√(2/π) ≈ 0.798 for Gaussian returns. sign_signal = pd.Series(np.sign(fwd), index=idx).replace(0, 1) r_sign = backtest_signal(close, sign_signal, forward_returns=fwd, txn_cost_bps=0.0) assert r_sign["ic"] is not None assert 0.7 < r_sign["ic"] < 0.85 # Passing fwd itself as the signal (clipped to [-1,1]) yields corr = 1.0. fwd_signal = fwd.clip(-1, 1) r_perfect = backtest_signal(close, fwd_signal, forward_returns=fwd, txn_cost_bps=0.0) assert r_perfect["ic"] == pytest.approx(1.0, abs=1e-9) def test_trade_count_matches_epoch_count(): """n_trades must equal the number of distinct non-flat position epochs.""" idx = pd.date_range("2024-01-01", periods=10, freq="1min") # Position: 0, 1, 1, 0, -1, -1, 0, 1, 0, 0 → 3 trades signal = pd.Series([0, 1, 1, 0, -1, -1, 0, 1, 0, 0], index=idx).astype(float) close = pd.Series(np.linspace(100, 101, 10), index=idx) r = backtest_signal(close, signal, txn_cost_bps=0.0) assert r["n_trades"] == 3 def test_win_rate_uses_per_trade_pnl(): """Win rate must reflect per-trade P&L, not per-bar returns.""" idx = pd.date_range("2024-01-01", periods=20, freq="1min") # Craft a scenario: 2 clearly winning long trades, 1 losing. close = pd.Series( [100, 101, 102, 103, 102, 101, 100, 99, 98, 99, # bars 0-9 100, 101, 102, 103, 104, 103, 102, 101, 100, 100], # bars 10-19 index=idx, ).astype(float) # Trade 1: long bars 1..3 (price 101→103 = +2, win) # Trade 2: long bars 5..7 (price 101→99 = -2, loss) # Trade 3: long bars 11..14 (price 101→104 = +3, win) sig = pd.Series(0, index=idx).astype(float) sig.iloc[1:4] = 1 sig.iloc[5:8] = 1 sig.iloc[11:15] = 1 r = backtest_signal(close, sig, txn_cost_bps=0.0) # Due to the shift(1) lag, actual entry/exit shifts by 1 bar — but the # number of epochs and their sign are preserved. assert r["n_trades"] == 3 assert r["win_rate"] == pytest.approx(2 / 3, abs=1e-9) # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Consistency tests — all four call sites produce identical numbers # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- def test_orchestrator_path_matches_direct_call(random_close): """Orchestrator's evaluate_strategy should produce the same bt numbers.""" np.random.seed(11) idx = random_close.index signal = pd.Series(np.random.choice([-1, 0, 1], size=len(idx)), index=idx).astype(float) direct = backtest_signal(random_close, signal, txn_cost_bps=1.5) # Reproduce the orchestrator's call signature. from rdagent.components.backtesting.vbt_backtest import backtest_signal as orch_bt orch = orch_bt(close=random_close.reindex(signal.index).ffill(), signal=signal, txn_cost_bps=1.5, freq="1min") for key in ("sharpe", "max_drawdown", "total_return", "n_trades", "win_rate"): assert direct[key] == orch[key], f"{key}: {direct[key]} != {orch[key]}" def test_factor_backtester_wrapper_consistent_with_engine(): """Legacy FactorBacktester must return the same IC/Sharpe as the unified engine.""" from rdagent.components.backtesting.backtest_engine import FactorBacktester np.random.seed(99) n = 500 idx = pd.date_range("2024-01-01", periods=n, freq="1min") factor = pd.Series(np.random.randn(n), index=idx) fwd_ret = pd.Series(factor.values * 0.001 + np.random.randn(n) * 0.01, index=idx) direct = backtest_from_forward_returns(factor, fwd_ret, txn_cost_bps=1.5) fb = FactorBacktester() fb.results_path = fb.results_path / "_test_tmp" fb.results_path.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) legacy = fb.run_backtest(factor, fwd_ret, "TestFactor", transaction_cost=0.00015) assert legacy["sharpe_ratio"] == pytest.approx(direct["sharpe"], rel=1e-9) assert legacy["max_drawdown"] == pytest.approx(direct["max_drawdown"], rel=1e-9) assert legacy["ic"] == pytest.approx(direct["ic"], rel=1e-9) # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Cross-check vs vectorbt simulation # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- def test_vbt_cross_check_matches_within_tolerance(random_close): """ Our manual total_return and vbt's compounded total_return should agree within a few basis points on a realistic 1-min scenario. """ np.random.seed(3) idx = random_close.index fast = random_close.rolling(10).mean() slow = random_close.rolling(50).mean() signal = pd.Series( np.where(fast > slow, 1.0, np.where(fast < slow, -1.0, 0.0)), index=idx ) r = backtest_signal(random_close, signal, txn_cost_bps=1.5, cross_check=True) assert "vbt_total_return" in r if r["vbt_total_return"] is not None: # Manual: simple (1+position*ret) compounding, one fixed leverage. # vbt: target-percent rebalancing on every bar, leverage drifts with equity. # The two can differ by O(|return|^2) per bar on flipping strategies; # we only require the sign and rough magnitude to agree. assert abs(r["total_return"] - r["vbt_total_return"]) < 0.05