- Rule 7 extended: session-based aggregations (London/NY/Asian) must also
be shifted by 1 trading day before use — same as daily aggregations
- Rule 8 added: prefer pure intraday rolling factors (RSI, Bollinger, VWAP
deviation, rolling std) that have no look-ahead risk and vary every minute
- predix_full_eval.py: apply _shift_daily_constant_factor_if_needed before IC
- predix_gen_strategies_real_bt.py: improved swing prompt with daily-level
signal logic guidance for daily-constant factors
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
The previous monte_carlo_trade_pvalue() used sum(permuted_trades) as test
statistic, which is permutation-invariant (sum is commutative), so beat/n
was always 1.0 and MC_p was always 1.00 for every strategy.
Replace with a one-sided binomial test on trade win rate vs 50% baseline.
Tests whether the observed win rate could occur by chance under H0: p=0.5.
Also add _shift_daily_constant_factor_if_needed() to predix_full_eval.py
so re-evaluations apply the look-ahead bias correction for daily factors.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
- abs(ic or 0) prevents TypeError crash when backtest returns no IC value
- wf_rolling=False and mc_n_permutations=50 for faster generation runs
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
- monte_carlo_trade_pvalue(): shuffles trade P&L N times, returns fraction of
permuted sequences that beat real total return (p<0.05 = genuine edge)
- walk_forward_rolling(): multiple IS/OOS windows (IS=3yr, OOS=1yr, step=1yr),
computes wf_oos_sharpe_mean, wf_oos_consistency (% profitable windows)
- backtest_signal_riskmgmt(): new wf_rolling and mc_n_permutations params
- Strategy generator: enables both (200 MC permutations), adds mc_ok and wf_ok
to acceptance filter (mc_p<0.20, wf_consistency>=50%)
- Rebacktest script: enables both, stores all wf_*/mc_* fields in write-back
- 6 new tests covering MC pvalue, disabled-by-default, zero-trades edge case,
rolling WF key presence and consistency range
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
OOS split is now enforced — no fallback to IS metrics. Strategies are
rejected if OOS data is missing or OOS sharpe/monthly <= 0. Feedback
to LLM now includes OOS metrics so it learns to build generalising strategies.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Split IS (2020-2023) and OOS (2024-2026) periods with independent RiskMgmt
simulations. Strategy acceptance now requires OOS sharpe > 0 and
OOS monthly return > 0 to prevent overfitting. OOS metrics stored in
strategy JSON summary and CSV reports.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Each script now creates a timestamped log file in git_ignore_folder/logs/,
captures all logging calls and Rich console output via _TeeFile, and prints
the log path at startup for easy tail access.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
- Add vbt_backtest.py as single source of truth for all metric formulas
(Sharpe, drawdown, IC, transaction costs) — backtest_engine.py and
strategy_orchestrator.py now delegate to it
- Add LLMUnavailableError to exception.py; rd_loop.py catches it at the
proposal stage and raises LoopResumeError to avoid corrupting trace
history with None hypotheses
- Guard record() against None exp/hypothesis so loop resets leave
trace.hist in a consistent state
- Refactor strategy_orchestrator and optuna_optimizer to use unified
backtest path; remove duplicate metric calculation code
- Add predix_rebacktest_unified.py script for offline re-evaluation
- Update tests and README
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
- Remove duplicate DB save from quant.py (keep only in factor_runner)
- Add explicit DB path creation with mkdir -p
- Add JSON factor summaries to results/factors/
- Add debug logging for result structure
- Fix logger.debug -> logger.info (RDAgentLog compatibility)
- Update tests to match new architecture (240/240 passing)
- Enhance extract_results.py with progress indicators
- Remove optional code quality hooks (black, isort, ruff, mypy, toml-sort)
* These blocked commits when tools not installed
* Users can run them manually when needed
- Keep only MANDATORY hooks:
* Integration Tests (60 tests, ~7.5s)
* Bandit Security Scan
- Both MUST pass before every commit
TPTBusiness