- vbt_backtest: unify risk_* → riskmgmt_* field names in _apply_risk_mask
- results_db: case-insensitive column existence check
- test_ftmo_oos: update test assertions to match renamed fields
Phase 1 — Infrastructure:
- RiskMgmt_RISK_PER_TRADE 0.5% → 1.5% (vbt_backtest.py)
- min_monthly_return_pct=15% acceptance filter (strategy_orchestrator)
- --min-monthly-return 15 CLI option (nexquant.py)
- {{ min_monthly_return }}% in strategy prompts
- MIN_MONTHLY_RETURN_PCT=15.0 in gen_strategies_real_bt + smart_strategy_gen
- realistic_backtest_all.py target_monthly 4→15%
Phase 2 — Factor quality:
- IC thresholds: prompt 0.05→0.08, bandit IC weight 0.10→0.20
- Explicite IC > 0.04 target in RAG prompt
- min_ic filters: data_loader 0.0→0.04, strategy_worker 0.02→0.04, ml_trainer 0.01→0.04
Architecture fix — Daily signal resampling:
- Factors have IC at daily resolution, but z-scores on 1-min collapse IC to ~0
- Resample factors to daily before strategy exec, ffill signal to 1-min for backtest
- Walk-forward IS years 3→1 (only 2 years of data available)
- Removed broken intersection() logic that destroyed 99.99% of 1-min data
- ffill stale propagation limited to 2880 bars (2 trading days)
- Fixed logger crash in _load_strategies
- Preflight: removed constant-signal check (false positive on random sandbox data)
- Tests: test_daily_signal_resampling.py (8 tests)
Non-negotiable rules: R1-R10 in AGENTS.md
The metric parameter was passed directly into an f-string SQL query.
Add explicit validation against _ALLOWED_METRICS before use, raising
ValueError on unknown values. Raises ValueError on injection attempt
instead of silently accepting arbitrary column names.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Replace f-string SQL queries with whitelist validation:
- Table name must be in _ALLOWED_TABLES
- Column name must be alphanumeric+underscore
- Column type must be in _ALLOWED_COL_TYPES
- Use pragma_table_info() for existence check instead of SELECT f-string
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
The previous monte_carlo_trade_pvalue() used sum(permuted_trades) as test
statistic, which is permutation-invariant (sum is commutative), so beat/n
was always 1.0 and MC_p was always 1.00 for every strategy.
Replace with a one-sided binomial test on trade win rate vs 50% baseline.
Tests whether the observed win rate could occur by chance under H0: p=0.5.
Also add _shift_daily_constant_factor_if_needed() to predix_full_eval.py
so re-evaluations apply the look-ahead bias correction for daily factors.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
- monte_carlo_trade_pvalue(): shuffles trade P&L N times, returns fraction of
permuted sequences that beat real total return (p<0.05 = genuine edge)
- walk_forward_rolling(): multiple IS/OOS windows (IS=3yr, OOS=1yr, step=1yr),
computes wf_oos_sharpe_mean, wf_oos_consistency (% profitable windows)
- backtest_signal_riskmgmt(): new wf_rolling and mc_n_permutations params
- Strategy generator: enables both (200 MC permutations), adds mc_ok and wf_ok
to acceptance filter (mc_p<0.20, wf_consistency>=50%)
- Rebacktest script: enables both, stores all wf_*/mc_* fields in write-back
- 6 new tests covering MC pvalue, disabled-by-default, zero-trades edge case,
rolling WF key presence and consistency range
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Split IS (2020-2023) and OOS (2024-2026) periods with independent RiskMgmt
simulations. Strategy acceptance now requires OOS sharpe > 0 and
OOS monthly return > 0 to prevent overfitting. OOS metrics stored in
strategy JSON summary and CSV reports.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
- Add vbt_backtest.py as single source of truth for all metric formulas
(Sharpe, drawdown, IC, transaction costs) — backtest_engine.py and
strategy_orchestrator.py now delegate to it
- Add LLMUnavailableError to exception.py; rd_loop.py catches it at the
proposal stage and raises LoopResumeError to avoid corrupting trace
history with None hypotheses
- Guard record() against None exp/hypothesis so loop resets leave
trace.hist in a consistent state
- Refactor strategy_orchestrator and optuna_optimizer to use unified
backtest path; remove duplicate metric calculation code
- Add predix_rebacktest_unified.py script for offline re-evaluation
- Update tests and README
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Implement automatic trading protection system to prevent excessive losses:
PROTECTIONS (100% original code, NOT copied from Freqtrade):
- Max Drawdown Protection: Blocks trading when DD > 15% (configurable)
- Cooldown Period: 4h mandatory rest after 5% loss
- Stoploss Guard: Detects stoploss clusters (>5 per day)
- Low Performance Filter: Filters factors with Sharpe < 0.5, Win Rate < 40%
ARCHITECTURE:
- Base protection interface with common utilities
- 4 specialized protection implementations
- ProtectionManager orchestrates all active protections
- Time-based blocking with automatic expiry
TESTS (32 total, ALL PASS):
- 25 unit tests in test/backtesting/test_protections.py
- 7 integration tests in test/integration/test_all_features.py
- Tests cover: normal operation, edge cases, error handling
DOCUMENTATION:
- Update QWEN.md with development guidelines for AI assistant
* Mandatory rules: Update QWEN.md, README, requirements.txt, tests
* Pre-commit checklist
* Example workflow
- Update README.md with protection system features
- Update project structure with new modules
All code is 100% original - NO license issues with Freqtrade GPLv3.
TPTBusiness