diff --git a/scripts/nexquant_1h_factors.py b/scripts/nexquant_1h_factors.py new file mode 100644 index 00000000..91367fab --- /dev/null +++ b/scripts/nexquant_1h_factors.py @@ -0,0 +1,76 @@ +import json, numpy as np, pandas as pd +from pathlib import Path +from rdagent.components.backtesting.vbt_backtest import backtest_signal_ftmo + +close = pd.read_hdf("git_ignore_folder/factor_implementation_source_data/intraday_pv.h5", key="data")["$close"] +close = close.droplevel(-1).sort_index().dropna().resample("1h").last().dropna() +print(f"1h bars: {len(close):,}") + +FACTORS_DIR = Path("results/factors"); VALS = FACTORS_DIR / "values" +factors = [] +for f in sorted(FACTORS_DIR.glob("*.json")): + try: d = json.loads(f.read_text()) + except: continue + if d.get("status") != "success" or d.get("ic") is None: continue + name = d.get("factor_name", f.stem) + safe = name.replace("/", "_")[:150] + if (VALS / f"{safe}.parquet").exists(): + factors.append({"name": name, "ic": d["ic"], "safe": safe}) + +factors.sort(key=lambda x: abs(x["ic"]), reverse=True) +print(f"Testing top-100 factors by |IC|...") + +results = [] +is_session = (close.index.hour >= 7) & (close.index.hour < 17) + +for i, f in enumerate(factors[:100]): + try: + s = pd.read_parquet(VALS / f"{f['safe']}.parquet").iloc[:, 0] + if isinstance(s.index, pd.MultiIndex): s = s.droplevel(-1) + fac = s.resample("1h").last().reindex(close.index).ffill() + except: continue + + for dr, label in [(1, "STD"), (-1, "INV")]: + sig = pd.Series(dr * np.sign(fac).fillna(0), index=close.index) + sig[~is_session] = 0 + if sig.abs().sum() < 20: continue + r = backtest_signal_ftmo(close, sig.fillna(0), txn_cost_bps=2.14) + oos = r.get("wf_oos_sharpe_mean") or r.get("oos_sharpe", -999) + oos_m = r.get("oos_monthly_return_pct", 0) or 0 + results.append((f"{f['name']}_{label}", oos, oos_m, r.get("oos_n_trades",0))) + + if i % 25 == 0: + bests = sorted(results, key=lambda x: x[1], reverse=True)[:3] + print(f" {i}/100... best: {bests[0][0][:35]} OOS={bests[0][1]:+.1f}") + +results.sort(key=lambda x: x[1], reverse=True) +print(f"\nTop 15 — 1h Factor Signals (Session-Filtered):") +for i, (name, oos, mon, t) in enumerate(results[:15]): + s = "✅" if mon > 0 else "" + print(f" {i+1:2d}. {name[:50]:50s} OOS={oos:+8.1f} Mon={mon:+7.3f}% T={t:5d} {s}") + +# Combine best +top = [r for r in results if r[2] > 0][:8] +if top: + all_sig = {} + for name, oos, mon, t in top: + fn = name.rsplit("_", 1)[0]; dr = 1 if name.endswith("_STD") else -1 + safe = fn.replace("/", "_")[:150] + try: + s = pd.read_parquet(VALS/f"{safe}.parquet").iloc[:, 0] + if isinstance(s.index, pd.MultiIndex): s = s.droplevel(-1) + fac = s.resample("1h").last().reindex(close.index).ffill() + sig = pd.Series(dr * np.sign(fac).fillna(0), index=close.index) + sig[~is_session] = 0; all_sig[name] = sig + except: pass + + df = pd.DataFrame(all_sig, index=close.index).fillna(0) + for n in [3, 5, 8]: + combo = df[list(df.columns)[:n]].mean(axis=1) + r = backtest_signal_ftmo(close, combo.fillna(0), txn_cost_bps=2.14, wf_rolling=True) + oos_m = r.get("oos_monthly_return_pct",0) or 0 + dd = (r.get("oos_max_drawdown",0) or 0)*100 + ann = ((1+oos_m/100)**12-1)*100 + print(f" Top-{n} combo: Mon={oos_m:+.3f}% Ann={ann:+.1f}% DD={dd:+.1f}% T={r.get('oos_n_trades',0)}") + +print("\nDone")