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https://github.com/cjudice-commits/prediction-market-arb.git
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05c0441053
- Monthly + hourly Kalshi/Polymarket arb scanner (stdlib-only Python). - Live positions tab w/ realized P&L history. - GitHub Actions cron workflow texts SMS via Apps Script webhook on newly-detected arbs. State persisted in alerts_state.json. 🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.com/claude-code) Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
507 lines
19 KiB
Python
507 lines
19 KiB
Python
"""Live positions from Polymarket (public, by wallet) and Kalshi (signed).
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Polymarket is on-chain: the public Data API returns holdings + P&L given
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just the proxy-wallet address — no secret.
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Kalshi requires an authed call. We sign exactly per Kalshi's spec
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(RSA-PSS / SHA-256 over "{ts}{METHOD}{path}") but shell out to the system
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`openssl` so no crypto dependency and the private key never leaves disk.
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Read-only — no order endpoints are ever called.
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Credentials come from data/secrets.json (git-ignored), supplied by the user.
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Missing/!configured venues degrade gracefully with setup guidance.
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"""
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import base64
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import json
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import os
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import re
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import subprocess
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import time
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import urllib.request
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import urllib.error
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from .net import get_json, parallel, FetchError
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ROOT = os.path.dirname(os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__)))
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SECRETS = os.path.join(ROOT, "data", "secrets.json")
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PAIRS = os.path.join(ROOT, "data", "pairs.json")
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POLY_DATA = "https://data-api.polymarket.com"
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CLOB_MKT = "https://clob.polymarket.com/markets/"
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KALSHI = "https://api.elections.kalshi.com"
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KALSHI_POS_PATH = "/trade-api/v2/portfolio/positions"
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_ASSETS = ("BTC", "ETH", "SOL", "XRP", "DOGE", "BNB", "HYPE", "ZEC", "LTC",
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"ADA", "AVAX", "LINK", "SHIB", "XLM", "SUI", "TRX")
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def _asset_from_ticker(t):
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"""KXXRPMAXMON-XRP-26MAY31-180 -> XRP ; KXHYPED-26MAY0117-T31 -> HYPE."""
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if not t:
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return None
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parts = t.split("-")
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if len(parts) > 1 and parts[1].isalpha() and 2 <= len(parts[1]) <= 5:
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return parts[1].upper()
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head = parts[0].upper()
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for a in _ASSETS:
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if a in head:
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return a
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return None
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def load_secrets():
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try:
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with open(SECRETS) as f:
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s = json.load(f)
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return s if isinstance(s, dict) else {}
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except (OSError, ValueError):
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return {}
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# ---------------------------------------------------------------- Polymarket
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def _poly(wallet):
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base = "%s/positions?user=%s&sizeThreshold=0.1&limit=500&sortBy=CURRENT&sortDirection=DESC" % (
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POLY_DATA, wallet)
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rows = get_json(base)
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raw = [p for p in (rows or []) if abs(float(p.get("size") or 0)) >= 1e-9]
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# Value each holding at the current CLOB best BID (executable exit price),
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# not the data-API curPrice (last/mid). Fall back to the API fields only
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# if a token has no live bid (illiquid / resolved).
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from . import poly
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bids = {}
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try:
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bids = poly.fetch_token_bids([p.get("asset") for p in raw])
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except Exception:
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bids = {}
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out = []
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for p in raw:
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size = float(p.get("size") or 0)
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cost = p.get("initialValue")
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bid = bids.get(str(p.get("asset")))
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if bid is not None:
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cur_price = bid
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value = size * bid
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pnl = (value - cost) if cost is not None else None
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pnl_pct = (pnl / cost) if (pnl is not None and cost) else None
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else: # no live bid -> API fallback
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cur_price = p.get("curPrice")
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value = p.get("currentValue")
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pnl = p.get("cashPnl")
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pnl_pct = (p.get("percentPnl") / 100.0
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if p.get("percentPnl") is not None else None)
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out.append({
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"venue": "Polymarket",
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"market": p.get("title"),
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"ref": p.get("slug"),
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"side": p.get("outcome"),
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"size": size,
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"avg_price": p.get("avgPrice"),
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"cur_price": cur_price,
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"cost": cost,
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"value": value,
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"pnl": pnl,
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"pnl_pct": pnl_pct,
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"realized_pnl": p.get("realizedPnl"),
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"icon": p.get("icon"),
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"end_date": (p.get("endDate") or "")[:10] or None,
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"redeemable": bool(p.get("redeemable")),
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"asset_id": p.get("asset"),
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"condition_id": p.get("conditionId"),
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})
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# Portfolio value coherent with bid-based marks; API /value as fallback.
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total = sum((p["value"] or 0) for p in out) if out else None
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if total is None:
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try:
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v = get_json("%s/value?user=%s" % (POLY_DATA, wallet))
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if isinstance(v, list) and v:
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total = v[0].get("value")
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except FetchError:
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pass
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return {"configured": True, "positions": out, "total_value": total}
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def _clob_resolution(cid):
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"""CLOB market by conditionId -> (closed, winning_outcome|None)."""
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m = get_json(CLOB_MKT + cid)
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if not isinstance(m, dict) or not m.get("closed"):
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return (False, None)
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win = None
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for tk in m.get("tokens") or []:
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if tk.get("winner"):
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win = tk.get("outcome")
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return (True, win)
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def _poly_history(wallet, open_cids):
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"""Reconstruct realized P&L for resolved markets from the public activity
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ledger. Trade cash is exact; the redemption payout is derived as
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(net contracts held on CLOB's winning outcome) x $1."""
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acts = []
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for off in range(0, 4000, 500): # paginate, bounded
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try:
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page = get_json("%s/activity?user=%s&limit=500&offset=%d"
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% (POLY_DATA, wallet, off))
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except FetchError:
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break
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if not page:
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break
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acts.extend(page)
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if len(page) < 500:
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break
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mk = {}
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for a in acts:
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if a.get("type") != "TRADE":
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continue
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cid = a.get("conditionId")
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if not cid or cid in open_cids:
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continue
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g = mk.setdefault(cid, {
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"title": a.get("title"), "slug": a.get("slug"),
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"icon": a.get("icon"), "net": {}, "buy": 0.0, "sell": 0.0,
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"ts": a.get("timestamp")})
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oc = a.get("outcome")
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sz = float(a.get("size") or 0)
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usd = float(a.get("usdcSize") or 0)
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if a.get("side") == "BUY":
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g["net"][oc] = g["net"].get(oc, 0.0) + sz
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g["buy"] += usd
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else:
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g["net"][oc] = g["net"].get(oc, 0.0) - sz
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g["sell"] += usd
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g["ts"] = max(g["ts"] or 0, a.get("timestamp") or 0)
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res = parallel(_clob_resolution, list(mk), workers=12)
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rows = []
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for cid, g in mk.items():
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r = res.get(cid)
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if isinstance(r, FetchError) or not r or not r[0]:
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continue # unresolved -> not history
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winner = r[1]
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held = max(0.0, g["net"].get(winner, 0.0)) if winner else 0.0
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payout = held # winning shares pay $1
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trade_cash = g["sell"] - g["buy"]
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realized = trade_cash + payout
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side = max(g["net"].items(), key=lambda kv: abs(kv[1]))[0] \
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if g["net"] else None
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import datetime
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sd = (datetime.datetime.utcfromtimestamp(g["ts"]).date().isoformat()
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if g.get("ts") else None)
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rows.append({
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"venue": "Polymarket",
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"market": g["title"],
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"ref": g["slug"],
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"result": (winner or "—"),
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"side": side,
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"size": abs(g["net"].get(side, 0.0)) if side else 0.0,
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"cost": g["buy"],
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"payout": payout + max(0.0, g["sell"]),
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"realized": realized,
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"settled_date": sd,
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"icon": g["icon"],
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"derived": True,
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})
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rows.sort(key=lambda x: x["settled_date"] or "", reverse=True)
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return rows
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# -------------------------------------------------------------------- Kalshi
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def _sign(message, key_path):
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"""RSA-PSS / SHA-256, salt = digest length — Kalshi's scheme, via openssl."""
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p = subprocess.run(
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["openssl", "dgst", "-sha256", "-sign", key_path,
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"-sigopt", "rsa_padding_mode:pss",
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"-sigopt", "rsa_pss_saltlen:-1"],
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input=message.encode(), capture_output=True)
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if p.returncode != 0:
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raise FetchError("openssl sign failed: %s"
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% p.stderr.decode()[:160].strip())
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return base64.b64encode(p.stdout).decode()
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def _kalshi(key_id, key_path):
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if not key_id or not key_path:
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return {"configured": False, "reason": "no_credentials"}
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if not os.path.isfile(os.path.expanduser(key_path)):
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return {"configured": False, "reason": "key_file_not_found"}
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key_path = os.path.expanduser(key_path)
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def signed_get(path):
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ts = str(int(time.time() * 1000))
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sig = _sign(ts + "GET" + path.split("?")[0], key_path)
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req = urllib.request.Request(KALSHI + path, headers={
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"KALSHI-ACCESS-KEY": key_id,
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"KALSHI-ACCESS-TIMESTAMP": ts,
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"KALSHI-ACCESS-SIGNATURE": sig,
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"Accept": "application/json",
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"User-Agent": "prediction-market-arb",
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})
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with urllib.request.urlopen(req, timeout=20) as r:
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return json.loads(r.read().decode())
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try:
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data = signed_get(KALSHI_POS_PATH + "?limit=500&count_filter=position")
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except urllib.error.HTTPError as e:
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return {"configured": True, "error": "Kalshi HTTP %s — check key ID / "
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"private key / permissions." % e.code, "positions": []}
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except Exception as e:
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return {"configured": True,
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"error": "%s" % type(e).__name__, "positions": []}
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mp = data.get("market_positions") or []
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tickers = [m.get("ticker") for m in mp if m.get("ticker")]
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marks = {}
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if tickers:
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try:
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from . import kalshi
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marks = kalshi.fetch_quotes(tickers)
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except Exception:
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marks = {}
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def num(m, base):
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"""Kalshi returns "{base}_dollars" as a string; fall back to int cents."""
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d = m.get(base + "_dollars")
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if d is not None:
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try:
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return float(d)
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except (TypeError, ValueError):
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pass
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v = m.get(base)
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return (v / 100.0) if isinstance(v, (int, float)) else 0.0
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out = []
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for m in mp:
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pos = 0.0
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for f in ("position_fp", "position"): # fp = fractional position
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try:
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pos = float(m.get(f))
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break
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except (TypeError, ValueError):
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continue
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if abs(pos) < 1e-9:
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continue
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side = "Yes" if pos > 0 else "No" # negative == net No
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size = abs(pos)
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q = marks.get(m.get("ticker")) or {}
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mark = q.get("yes_bid") if pos > 0 else q.get("no_bid")
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# Cost basis of the CURRENTLY held position = market_exposure.
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# total_traded is lifetime traded volume (inflated by any round-trips)
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# and must NOT be used as cost — it shows phantom losses.
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cost = num(m, "market_exposure") or num(m, "total_traded")
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value = (size * mark) if mark is not None else cost
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out.append({
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"venue": "Kalshi",
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"market": q.get("title") or m.get("ticker"),
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"ref": m.get("ticker"),
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"side": side,
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"size": size,
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"avg_price": (cost / size) if size else None,
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"cur_price": mark,
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"cost": cost or None,
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"value": value,
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"pnl": (value - cost) if cost else None,
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"pnl_pct": ((value - cost) / cost) if cost else None,
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"realized_pnl": num(m, "realized_pnl"),
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"fees": num(m, "fees_paid"),
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"icon": None,
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"asset": _asset_from_ticker(m.get("ticker")),
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"end_date": q.get("expiry") or None,
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"redeemable": q.get("status") in ("settled", "finalized"),
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"asset_id": m.get("ticker"),
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})
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total_value = None
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try:
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pv = signed_get("/trade-api/v2/portfolio/balance").get(
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"portfolio_value")
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if isinstance(pv, (int, float)):
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total_value = pv / 100.0 # cents -> dollars
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except Exception:
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pass
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if total_value is None:
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total_value = sum(p["value"] or 0 for p in out)
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# Settled (expired) markets — exact realized P&L straight from Kalshi.
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settled, cursor = [], ""
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for _ in range(15): # cursor-page guard
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try:
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sd = signed_get("/trade-api/v2/portfolio/settlements?limit=200"
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+ ("&cursor=" + cursor if cursor else ""))
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except Exception:
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break
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for s in sd.get("settlements", []):
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yc = float(s.get("yes_total_cost_dollars") or 0)
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nc = float(s.get("no_total_cost_dollars") or 0)
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fee = float(s.get("fee_cost") or 0)
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yct = float(s.get("yes_count_fp") or 0)
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nct = float(s.get("no_count_fp") or 0)
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result = (s.get("market_result") or "").lower()
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# Kalshi's `revenue`/`value` are 0 when both sides were held to
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# expiry — NOT the payout. Settled contracts pay $1 each on the
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# winning side, so derive payout from market_result + counts.
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if result == "yes":
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payout = yct
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elif result == "no":
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payout = nct
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else: # void/refund -> fall back
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payout = (s.get("revenue") or 0) / 100.0
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cost = yc + nc + fee
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side = "Yes" if yct >= nct else "No"
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settled.append({
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"venue": "Kalshi",
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"market": s.get("ticker"),
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"ref": s.get("ticker"),
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"result": (result.upper() or "—"),
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"side": side,
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"size": max(yct, nct),
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"cost": cost,
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"payout": payout,
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"realized": payout - cost,
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"settled_date": (s.get("settled_time") or "")[:10] or None,
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"asset": _asset_from_ticker(s.get("ticker")),
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"derived": False,
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})
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cursor = sd.get("cursor") or ""
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if not cursor:
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break
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return {"configured": True, "positions": out,
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"total_value": total_value, "settlements": settled}
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# ------------------------------------------------------------- paired view
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def _load_pairs():
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try:
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with open(PAIRS) as f:
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return json.load(f)
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except (OSError, ValueError):
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return []
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def _paired(poly_pos, kalshi_pos):
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pairs = _load_pairs()
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by_slug, by_tkr = {}, {}
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for pr in pairs:
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if pr.get("poly_slug"):
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by_slug.setdefault(pr["poly_slug"], pr)
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if pr.get("kalshi_ticker"):
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by_tkr[pr["kalshi_ticker"]] = pr
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groups = {}
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def key(pr):
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return "%s|%s|%s" % (pr.get("asset"), pr.get("kalshi_ticker"),
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pr.get("poly_slug"))
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for p in poly_pos:
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pr = by_slug.get(p["ref"])
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if pr:
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groups.setdefault(key(pr), {"pair": pr, "poly": [], "kalshi": []})
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groups[key(pr)]["poly"].append(p)
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for p in kalshi_pos:
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pr = by_tkr.get(p["ref"])
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if pr:
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groups.setdefault(key(pr), {"pair": pr, "poly": [], "kalshi": []})
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groups[key(pr)]["kalshi"].append(p)
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rows = []
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for g in groups.values():
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legs = g["poly"] + g["kalshi"]
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cost = sum((x["cost"] or 0) for x in legs)
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value = sum((x["value"] or 0) for x in legs)
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pnl = sum((x["pnl"] or 0) for x in legs if x["pnl"] is not None)
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rows.append({
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"asset": g["pair"].get("asset"),
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"kalshi_ticker": g["pair"].get("kalshi_ticker"),
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"poly_slug": g["pair"].get("poly_slug"),
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"kalshi_strike": g["pair"].get("kalshi_strike"),
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"poly_strike": g["pair"].get("poly_strike"),
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"legs": legs,
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"cost": cost,
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"value": value,
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"pnl": pnl,
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"pnl_pct": (pnl / cost if cost else None),
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"complete": bool(g["poly"] and g["kalshi"]),
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})
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rows.sort(key=lambda r: r["pnl"], reverse=True)
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return rows
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def run_positions():
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s = load_secrets()
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wallet = (s.get("polymarket_wallet") or "").strip()
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poly = ({"configured": False, "reason": "no_wallet"}
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if not wallet or wallet.startswith("0xYOUR")
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else _safe(_poly, wallet))
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kalshi = _safe(_kalshi, s.get("kalshi_key_id"),
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s.get("kalshi_private_key_path"))
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pp = poly.get("positions", []) if poly.get("configured") else []
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kp = kalshi.get("positions", []) if kalshi.get("configured") else []
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paired = _paired(pp, kp)
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# History (expired/settled): Kalshi exact; Polymarket reconstructed.
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k_hist = kalshi.get("settlements", []) if kalshi.get("configured") else []
|
|
p_hist = []
|
|
if poly.get("configured"):
|
|
open_cids = {p.get("condition_id") for p in pp if p.get("condition_id")}
|
|
p_hist = _safe(_poly_history, wallet, open_cids)
|
|
if isinstance(p_hist, dict): # _safe wrapped an error
|
|
p_hist = []
|
|
|
|
def total_pnl(lst):
|
|
return sum((p.get("pnl") or 0) for p in lst)
|
|
|
|
def total_cost(lst):
|
|
return sum((p.get("cost") or 0) for p in lst)
|
|
|
|
def total_realized(lst):
|
|
return sum((p.get("realized") or 0) for p in lst)
|
|
|
|
poly_pnl = total_pnl(pp) if poly.get("configured") else None
|
|
kalshi_pnl = total_pnl(kp) if kalshi.get("configured") else None
|
|
grand_pnl = (None if poly_pnl is None and kalshi_pnl is None
|
|
else (poly_pnl or 0) + (kalshi_pnl or 0))
|
|
all_cost = total_cost(pp) + total_cost(kp)
|
|
total_return = ((grand_pnl / all_cost)
|
|
if (grand_pnl is not None and all_cost) else None)
|
|
|
|
kalshi_realized = total_realized(k_hist) if kalshi.get("configured") else None
|
|
poly_realized = total_realized(p_hist) if poly.get("configured") else None
|
|
grand_realized = (None if kalshi_realized is None and poly_realized is None
|
|
else (kalshi_realized or 0) + (poly_realized or 0))
|
|
|
|
return {
|
|
"polymarket": poly,
|
|
"kalshi": kalshi,
|
|
"paired": paired,
|
|
"history": {"kalshi": k_hist, "polymarket": p_hist},
|
|
"totals": {
|
|
"poly_value": poly.get("total_value"),
|
|
"kalshi_value": kalshi.get("total_value"),
|
|
"poly_pnl": poly_pnl,
|
|
"kalshi_pnl": kalshi_pnl,
|
|
"total_pnl": grand_pnl,
|
|
"total_return": total_return,
|
|
"kalshi_realized": kalshi_realized,
|
|
"poly_realized": poly_realized,
|
|
"total_realized": grand_realized,
|
|
"open_positions": len(pp) + len(kp),
|
|
"settled_count": len(k_hist) + len(p_hist),
|
|
"paired_count": sum(1 for r in paired if r["complete"]),
|
|
},
|
|
"generated_at": time.strftime("%Y-%m-%d %H:%M:%S", time.localtime()),
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
|
|
def _safe(fn, *a):
|
|
try:
|
|
return fn(*a)
|
|
except FetchError as e:
|
|
return {"configured": True, "error": str(e), "positions": []}
|
|
except Exception as e:
|
|
return {"configured": True,
|
|
"error": "%s: %s" % (type(e).__name__, e), "positions": []}
|