The local server kept dying because it ran as a background/agent process under
~/Desktop (a macOS TCC-protected folder): once the launching session ended the
orphaned process lost Desktop access and every file read hit PermissionError.
Permanent fix lives outside git -- the project now sits at
~/prediction-market-arb (not TCC-protected) and runs via a login LaunchAgent
(RunAtLoad + KeepAlive: starts at login, restarts on crash, survives reboot).
Code side: server.py honors ARB_NO_POLLER=1 to skip the local SMS poller (the
LaunchAgent sets it) so the always-on server doesn't double-text alongside the
GitHub Actions alerter; gitignore the service's *.log.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
New arb/prepare.py + GET /api/prepare: for one monthly arb pair it re-pulls
fresh quotes (incl. real Kalshi top-of-book ask size) and builds the exact
order pair a cross-venue hedge would need -- sides from best_side, size
capped to the thinner book, limit = ask + slippage buffer, capital required,
guaranteed worst-case, and warnings. Places NO orders and touches no order
endpoints anywhere.
UI: a "Prepare trade" button in the monthly drawer's breakdown card opens a
PREVIEW-ONLY ticket modal (max-size + slippage-cent inputs that re-price live;
a deliberately disabled Confirm button as the Step-2 placeholder). Also
reorders the expanded drawer so the breakdown/Prepare card is the wide left
column.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
- arb/ibkr.py: Client Portal Gateway client (localhost:5000 over self-
signed SSL; auth_status, tickle, snapshot, secdef/search). Distinct
NotConnected vs NotAuthed exceptions for graceful UI fallbacks.
- arb/daily.py: pairs each user-configured IBKR ForecastEx daily-BTC
contract against the Kalshi KXBTCD market closing at the same UTC
instant with nearest strike. Reuses arb.calc.evaluate for the worst-
case arb math; IBKR slots into the 'pq' position. NO KALSHI status
when no matching Kalshi market exists.
- data/ibkr_contracts.example.json: template (real file gitignored).
- /api/scan/daily route + 'IBKR × Kalshi' tab in the local UI. Tab
shows a setup banner explaining what to do when Gateway/contracts
aren't configured (vs crashing).
- Public Pages dashboard unchanged (positions + IBKR are local-only).
🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.com/claude-code)
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
- Monthly + hourly Kalshi/Polymarket arb scanner (stdlib-only Python).
- Live positions tab w/ realized P&L history.
- GitHub Actions cron workflow texts SMS via Apps Script webhook on
newly-detected arbs. State persisted in alerts_state.json.
🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.com/claude-code)
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Casey Judice