mirror of
https://github.com/lucasmos/GoldRegime_X.git
synced 2026-11-02 06:26:15 +00:00
Luke Mosoti
e3a5af8eae
- backtester: add format_payout() helper — Cents (×100) for headway_cent,
USD for standard; add _compute_audit_metrics() computing avg_efficiency
(ATR/spread on active bars), cost_efficiency (1 - costs/gross_profit),
and total_net_payout (return × account_size); wire audit metrics into
vectorized_backtest for full period, IS slice, and OOS slice; update IS/OOS
log lines to show Eff and CostEff
- optimizer: import format_payout; trial logger now shows RF, PF, Payoff$,
Eff (ATR/spread), FloatDD%, trades, and multi-currency payout string
- validator: extract avg_efficiency, cost_efficiency, total_return from result;
expose all three in returned dict and logger
- main: import format_payout; cmd_train _fmt_block adds Efficiency, CostEff,
and Total Payout lines with ⚠️ warning when CostEff < 50%; cmd_sync_validate
shows efficiency + payout + warns on Eff < 1.2 or CostEff < 50%;
cmd_wfa per-fold row now includes Eff column
916 lines
38 KiB
Python
916 lines
38 KiB
Python
import argparse
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import json
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import sys
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import time
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from pathlib import Path
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sys.path.insert(0, str(Path(__file__).parent))
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# Load .env for Telegram credentials (silently ignored if python-dotenv not installed)
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try:
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from dotenv import load_dotenv
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load_dotenv()
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except ImportError:
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pass
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from src.logger import setup_logger
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from src.processor import process_pipeline, TF_CONFIG, PROCESSED_PATH, save_feature_scaler, load_feature_scaler
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from src.engine_hmm import fit_hmm, save_model as save_hmm, load_model as load_hmm, get_model_path as hmm_model_path
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from src.engine_xgb import (
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prepare_features, train_xgb, get_predictions,
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export_onnx, save_xgb, load_xgb, ONNX_PATH, FEATURE_COLS,
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train_xgb_ensemble, get_predictions_ensemble,
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save_xgb_ensemble, load_xgb_ensemble, export_onnx_ensemble, ENSEMBLE_PKL_PATH,
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get_ensemble_path, TF_TRAIN_RATIO,
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)
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from src.optimizer import run_optimization, get_best_params, _score_result as _calc_score
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from src.backtester import vectorized_backtest, format_payout
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from src.visualizer import generate_full_report
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from src.risk_manager import AdaptiveRiskManager
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logger = setup_logger("main")
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def _resolve_balance(args) -> float:
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"""--balance takes precedence over --min_cap."""
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return args.balance if args.balance is not None else args.min_cap
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_M5_EXPIRY_HOURS = 120 # 5 days
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# Staleness thresholds per TF (days). If the saved model is older than this
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# the live gate aborts with a warning and Telegram alert.
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# M5 is tightest (14d) — microstructure regimes shift weekly.
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# H1/M15 are more stable but should still re-optimise monthly.
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_MODEL_STALE_DAYS = {"M5": 14, "M15": 30, "H1": 30}
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def _m5_meta_path(broker: str) -> Path:
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return Path(f"models/m5_meta_{broker}.json")
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def _check_m5_readiness(tf: str, broker: str = "headway_cent") -> bool:
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"""Return True if the M5 model is fresh enough for live trading.
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The M5 timeframe is sensitive to microstructure changes, so the model
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must have been optimised within the last 5 days. A meta.json timestamp
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is written by cmd_optimize after each successful M5 study.
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"""
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if tf.upper() != "M5":
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return True
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meta_path = _m5_meta_path(broker)
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if not meta_path.exists():
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# Legacy fallback: files created before per-broker naming used models/m5_meta.json
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_legacy = Path("models/m5_meta.json")
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if _legacy.exists():
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logger.info(
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"Migrating legacy m5_meta.json -> %s for broker=%s.", meta_path, broker
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)
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meta_path.write_text(_legacy.read_text())
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else:
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print(
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"\nERROR: M5 model meta-data not found.\n"
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"Run python main.py --mode optimize --tf M5 before live trading."
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)
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return False
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meta = json.loads(meta_path.read_text())
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age_h = (time.time() - meta.get("timestamp", 0)) / 3600
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if age_h > _M5_EXPIRY_HOURS:
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print(
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f"\nWARNING: M5 model is {age_h:.0f} hours old (limit: {_M5_EXPIRY_HOURS}h / 5 days).\n"
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"REQUIRED ACTION: Run python main.py --mode optimize --tf M5 to refresh before live.\n"
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"\n Pre-flight checklist:\n"
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" 1. python main.py --mode sync_validate --period 3m --tf M5\n"
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" 2. python main.py --mode optimize --tf M5 --trials 500 --balance 15\n"
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" 3. python main.py --mode train --tf M5\n"
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)
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return False
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return True
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def _train_for_tf(tf: str, balance: float, broker: str, params: dict):
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"""Shared train logic for a single timeframe. Returns (result, model_hmm, states, X, metrics)."""
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df = process_pipeline(
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obs_cov=params.get("obs_cov"),
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trans_cov=params.get("trans_cov"),
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save=True,
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tf=tf,
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save_models=True,
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broker=broker,
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)
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model_hmm, states, state_map = fit_hmm(
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df, n_states=params.get("n_states", TF_CONFIG[tf].get("n_states_default", 3))
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)
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X, y, df_aligned, feature_scaler = prepare_features(df, states, tf=tf)
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save_feature_scaler(feature_scaler, tf=tf, broker=broker)
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_train_ratio = TF_TRAIN_RATIO.get(tf.upper(), 0.70)
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models_ensemble, thresholds, metrics = train_xgb_ensemble(
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X, y,
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train_ratio=_train_ratio,
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max_depth=params.get("max_depth", 4),
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learning_rate=params.get("learning_rate", 0.1),
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n_estimators=params.get("n_estimators", 200),
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subsample=params.get("subsample", 0.8),
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colsample_bytree=params.get("colsample_bytree", 0.8),
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min_child_weight=params.get("min_child_weight", 5),
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gamma=params.get("gamma", 1.0),
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reg_alpha=params.get("reg_alpha", 0.1),
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)
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_, probabilities = get_predictions_ensemble(models_ensemble, thresholds, X)
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states_aligned = states[df.index.isin(df_aligned.index)]
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split_idx = metrics.get("split_idx")
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result = vectorized_backtest(
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df_aligned, probabilities, states_aligned,
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split_idx=split_idx,
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account_size=balance,
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broker=broker,
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tf=tf,
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prob_threshold=params.get("prob_threshold"),
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short_threshold=params.get("short_threshold"),
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)
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return result, model_hmm, state_map, models_ensemble, thresholds, metrics, df_aligned, states_aligned, X, probabilities
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def _check_model_staleness(tf: str, broker: str, args) -> None:
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"""Abort live/demo start if the saved model exceeds the staleness threshold.
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Sends a Telegram alert and calls ``sys.exit(1)`` when the model is too old.
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Pass ``--skip_stale_check`` on the CLI to bypass this gate (e.g. for demo
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testing when you intentionally don't want to re-optimise).
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Does nothing for unknown TFs or when ``--skip_stale_check`` is set.
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"""
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if getattr(args, "skip_stale_check", False):
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logger.info("Staleness gate bypassed (--skip_stale_check).")
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return
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from src.validator import check_model_age
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from src.notifier import send_telegram_msg
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max_age = _MODEL_STALE_DAYS.get(tf.upper(), 30)
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age_days = check_model_age(tf=tf, broker=broker)
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if age_days <= max_age:
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logger.info(
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"Model freshness OK: %s/%s is %.1f days old (limit %d).",
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tf, broker, age_days, max_age,
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)
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return
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age_str = f"{age_days:.0f}" if age_days != float("inf") else "unknown (file missing)"
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msg = (
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f"⚠️ Market Drift/Staleness detected. Pausing trade loop — "
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f"[{tf}] model is {age_str} days old (limit: {max_age} days).\n"
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f"Re-optimise before going live:\n"
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f" python main.py --mode optimize --tf {tf} --broker {broker} --trials 500\n"
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f" python main.py --mode train --tf {tf} --broker {broker}\n"
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f"Add --skip_stale_check to the live command to bypass this gate."
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)
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logger.warning("STALE MODEL [%s/%s]: %.0f days old — aborting.", tf, broker, age_days)
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send_telegram_msg(f"<b>{msg}</b>")
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print(f"\n{msg}")
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sys.exit(1)
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def cmd_wfa(args):
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"""Walk-Forward Analysis: evaluate model consistency across rolling time windows.
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Uses the globally-trained model's probability outputs (no per-window retraining)
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to score IS + OOS Sharpe across every train_days/test_days window. Prints a
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per-window breakdown and the aggregate Walk-Forward Efficiency (WFE) ratio.
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WFE target: > 50%. A WFE of 60% means the model's OOS performance is 60% of
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its IS performance — i.e. it generalises well rather than curve-fitting a few
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favourable years.
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"""
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from src.backtester import run_walk_forward
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from src.notifier import send_telegram_msg
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balance = _resolve_balance(args)
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broker = args.broker
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tf = args.tf.upper()
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# TF-specific defaults (calendar days) — tuned to each bar frequency
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_wfa_defaults = {"H1": (365, 90), "M15": (180, 60), "M5": (90, 30)}
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default_train, default_test = _wfa_defaults.get(tf, (365, 90))
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train_days = getattr(args, "train_days", None) or default_train
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test_days = getattr(args, "test_days", None) or default_test
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try:
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params = get_best_params(balance=balance, broker=broker, tf=tf)
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logger.info("WFA using Optuna params [%s/%s]: %s", tf, broker, params)
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except Exception:
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logger.warning("No Optuna study found for %s/%s — using defaults.", tf, broker)
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params = {}
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logger.info(
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"Walk-Forward Analysis [%s/%s] balance=$%.0f train=%dd test=%dd",
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tf, broker, balance, train_days, test_days,
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)
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print(f"\n=== Walk-Forward Analysis [{tf} / {broker}] ===")
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print(f" Train window : {train_days} days | Test step : {test_days} days")
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print(" Loading full dataset...")
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df = process_pipeline(
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obs_cov=params.get("obs_cov"),
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trans_cov=params.get("trans_cov"),
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save=False,
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tf=tf,
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)
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n_states = params.get("n_states", TF_CONFIG[tf].get("n_states_default", 3))
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model_hmm, states, _ = fit_hmm(df, n_states=n_states)
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_min_persist = min(model_hmm.transmat_[i, i] for i in range(model_hmm.n_components))
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if _min_persist < 0.70:
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print(
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f"\nERROR: Degenerate HMM (min persistence={_min_persist:.4f}). "
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"Run --mode optimize first to find stable Kalman parameters."
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)
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sys.exit(1)
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X, y, df_aligned, _scaler = prepare_features(df, states, tf=tf)
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_train_ratio = TF_TRAIN_RATIO.get(tf.upper(), 0.70)
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models_e, thresholds_e, metrics_e = train_xgb_ensemble(
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X, y,
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train_ratio = _train_ratio,
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max_depth = params.get("max_depth", 4),
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learning_rate = params.get("learning_rate", 0.1),
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n_estimators = params.get("n_estimators", 200),
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subsample = params.get("subsample", 0.8),
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colsample_bytree = params.get("colsample_bytree", 0.8),
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min_child_weight = params.get("min_child_weight", 5),
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gamma = params.get("gamma", 1.0),
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reg_alpha = params.get("reg_alpha", 0.1),
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)
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_, probs = get_predictions_ensemble(models_e, thresholds_e, X)
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states_aln = states[df.index.isin(df_aligned.index)]
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print(
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f" Dataset: {len(df_aligned)} bars "
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f"({df_aligned.index[0].date()} – {df_aligned.index[-1].date()})"
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)
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print(" Evaluating rolling windows (fixed model — no per-window retraining)...")
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wfa = run_walk_forward(
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df_aligned, probs, states_aln,
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train_days = train_days,
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test_days = test_days,
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account_size = balance,
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broker = broker,
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tf = tf,
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prob_threshold = params.get("prob_threshold"),
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short_threshold = params.get("short_threshold"),
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)
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n_win = wfa["n_windows"]
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n_valid = wfa.get("n_valid_windows", n_win)
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wfe = wfa["wfe_ratio"]
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mean_is = wfa["mean_is_sharpe"]
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mean_oos = wfa["mean_oos_sharpe"]
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verdict = "ROBUST ✅" if wfe >= 0.50 else "FRAGILE ⚠️ — consider re-optimising"
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n_silent = sum(1 for w in wfa["windows"] if w.get("oos_n_trades", 0) == 0)
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print(f"\n Total windows : {n_win}")
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print(f" Valid windows : {n_valid} (≥5 IS trades, ≥1 OOS trade — used for WFE)")
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print(f" Silent windows : {n_silent} (0 OOS trades — model held back by efficiency filter)")
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print(f" Mean IS Sharpe : {mean_is:+.3f} [valid only]")
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print(f" Mean OOS Sharpe : {mean_oos:+.3f} [valid only]")
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print(f" Walk-Forward Eff : {wfe * 100:.1f}% [{verdict}]")
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if n_win > 0:
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print("\n Per-window OOS breakdown:")
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WFA_FOLD_PASS_SCORE = 1.0
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for w in wfa["windows"]:
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oos_s = w.get("oos_sharpe_ratio", 0.0)
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oos_t = w.get("oos_n_trades", 0)
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period = (
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f"{w['oos_start'].strftime('%Y-%m')} → "
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f"{w['oos_end'].strftime('%Y-%m')}"
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)
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if oos_t == 0:
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flag = "—" # model was silent; not a warning
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elif oos_t < 3:
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flag = "⚠️ (thin)" # signal fired but sample too small to trust
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else:
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oos_fdd = w.get("oos_floating_max_drawdown", w.get("oos_max_drawdown", 0.0))
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fold_r = {
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"total_return": w.get("oos_total_return", 0.0),
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"floating_max_drawdown": oos_fdd,
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"sharpe_ratio": oos_s,
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"profit_factor": w.get("oos_profit_factor", 1.0),
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}
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fold_score = _calc_score(fold_r)
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if fold_score >= WFA_FOLD_PASS_SCORE:
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flag = f"✅ ({fold_score:.2f})"
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elif fold_score >= 0:
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flag = f"⚠️ ({fold_score:.2f})"
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else:
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flag = f"❌ ({fold_score:.2f})"
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oos_pf = w.get("oos_profit_factor", 1.0)
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oos_eff = w.get("oos_avg_efficiency", 0.0)
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eff_str = f"{oos_eff:.2f}x" if oos_t >= 3 else " — "
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print(f" {period} OOS={oos_s:+.3f} PF={oos_pf:.2f} Eff={eff_str} trades={oos_t} {flag}")
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send_telegram_msg(
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f"📊 <b>Walk-Forward Analysis [{tf}]</b>\n"
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f"Valid windows: <b>{n_valid}/{n_win}</b> | "
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f"IS: <b>{mean_is:+.3f}</b> | OOS: <b>{mean_oos:+.3f}</b>\n"
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f"WFE: <b>{wfe * 100:.1f}%</b> "
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+ ("✅ Robust" if wfe >= 0.50 else "⚠️ Fragile — re-optimise recommended")
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)
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def cmd_process(args):
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tfs = [t.strip().upper() for t in args.tf.split(",")]
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for tf in tfs:
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if tf not in TF_CONFIG:
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logger.error("Unknown timeframe '%s'. Valid: %s", tf, list(TF_CONFIG))
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continue
|
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try:
|
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df = process_pipeline(save=True, tf=tf, save_models=True, broker=args.broker)
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logger.info(
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"[%s] Done: %d bars | Range: %s to %s",
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tf, len(df), df.index.min(), df.index.max(),
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)
|
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except FileNotFoundError as e:
|
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logger.error(str(e))
|
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|
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|
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def cmd_optimize(args):
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balance = _resolve_balance(args)
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broker = args.broker
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tfs = [t.strip().upper() for t in args.tf.split(",")]
|
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for tf in tfs:
|
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logger.info("Optimizing [%s] broker=%s balance=$%.0f trials=%d", tf, broker, balance, args.trials)
|
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study = run_optimization(n_trials=args.trials, balance=balance, broker=broker, tf=tf, n_jobs=args.n_jobs)
|
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print(f"\n=== Best Result [{tf}] ===")
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print(f"Score: {study.best_value:.3f}")
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print(f"Broker: {broker}")
|
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print(f"Balance: ${balance:.0f} USD")
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print("Best Params:")
|
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for k, v in study.best_params.items():
|
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print(f" {k}: {v}")
|
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if tf == "M5":
|
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meta_path = _m5_meta_path(broker)
|
||
meta_path.parent.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
|
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meta_path.write_text(json.dumps({
|
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"timestamp": time.time(),
|
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"tf": "M5",
|
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"best_score": study.best_value,
|
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}))
|
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print(
|
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"\nOptimization Complete. HMM States and XGBoost Weights have been updated. "
|
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"You are now cleared for M5 Live Trading for the next 5 days."
|
||
)
|
||
|
||
|
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def cmd_train(args):
|
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balance = _resolve_balance(args)
|
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broker = args.broker
|
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tf = args.tf.upper()
|
||
|
||
try:
|
||
params = get_best_params(balance=balance, broker=broker, tf=tf)
|
||
logger.info("Using Optuna best params [%s/%s]: %s", tf, broker, params)
|
||
except Exception:
|
||
logger.warning("No Optuna study found for tf=%s broker=%s — using defaults", tf, broker)
|
||
params = {}
|
||
|
||
result, model_hmm, state_map, models_ensemble, thresholds, metrics, *_ = _train_for_tf(tf, balance, broker, params)
|
||
|
||
# Guard: refuse to save a degenerate HMM — identical state means + near-zero persistence
|
||
# indicate the Kalman/HMM params were bad (usually because Optuna params weren't loaded).
|
||
_min_persist = min(model_hmm.transmat_[i, i] for i in range(model_hmm.n_components))
|
||
if _min_persist < 0.70:
|
||
logger.critical(
|
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"TRAINING ABORTED: degenerate HMM (min persistence=%.4f). "
|
||
"Model NOT saved. Usually caused by missing Optuna study for tf=%s broker=%s. "
|
||
"Ensure --mode optimize has completed and re-run --mode train.",
|
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_min_persist, tf, broker,
|
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)
|
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print(
|
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f"\nERROR: Degenerate HMM detected (min state persistence={_min_persist:.4f} < 0.70).\n"
|
||
f"The model was NOT saved — saving it would only produce garbage signals.\n"
|
||
f"\nFix: python main.py --mode optimize --tf {tf} --broker {broker} --trials 300\n"
|
||
f"Then: python main.py --mode train --tf {tf} --broker {broker}\n"
|
||
)
|
||
sys.exit(1)
|
||
|
||
save_hmm(model_hmm, hmm_model_path(tf, broker))
|
||
save_xgb_ensemble(models_ensemble, thresholds, metrics, get_ensemble_path(tf, broker))
|
||
|
||
arm = AdaptiveRiskManager(balance, broker=broker)
|
||
print(f"\n=== Training Results [{tf}] ===")
|
||
print(f"Broker: {broker} | Balance: ${balance:.0f} | Tier: {'small' if arm.is_small_account else 'growth'}")
|
||
print(f"Sharpe: {result['sharpe_ratio']:.3f} | MaxDD: {result['max_drawdown']*100:.1f}% "
|
||
f"| WR: {result['win_rate']*100:.1f}% | Trades: {result['n_trades']}")
|
||
if "oos_sharpe_ratio" in result:
|
||
def _fmt_block(label, r, prefix):
|
||
fdd = r.get(f"{prefix}floating_max_drawdown", r.get(f"{prefix}max_drawdown", 0.0))
|
||
r_dict = {
|
||
"total_return": r.get(f"{prefix}total_return", 0.0),
|
||
"floating_max_drawdown": fdd,
|
||
"sharpe_ratio": r.get(f"{prefix}sharpe_ratio", 0.0),
|
||
"profit_factor": r.get(f"{prefix}profit_factor", 1.0),
|
||
}
|
||
score = _calc_score(r_dict)
|
||
rf = r.get(f"{prefix}recovery_factor", 0.0)
|
||
pf = r.get(f"{prefix}profit_factor", 1.0)
|
||
payoff = r.get(f"{prefix}expected_payoff", 0.0) * balance
|
||
eff = r.get(f"{prefix}avg_efficiency", 0.0)
|
||
cost_e = r.get(f"{prefix}cost_efficiency", 0.0)
|
||
payout_str = format_payout(r.get(f"{prefix}total_return", 0.0), balance, broker)
|
||
print(
|
||
f" [{tf} {label}] Score: {score:.2f} | RF: {rf:.2f} | PF: {pf:.2f}"
|
||
f" | Payoff: ${payoff:.4f} | MaxDD: {fdd*100:.1f}% (Floating)"
|
||
f" | WR: {r.get(f'{prefix}win_rate', 0.0)*100:.1f}% | Trades: {r.get(f'{prefix}n_trades', 0)}"
|
||
)
|
||
print(
|
||
f" [{tf} {label}] Efficiency: {eff:.2f}x ATR/Spread"
|
||
f" | CostEff: {cost_e*100:.1f}%"
|
||
f" | Total Payout: {payout_str}"
|
||
)
|
||
if cost_e < 0.50:
|
||
print(f" ⚠️ WARNING: Broker is consuming >{(1-cost_e)*100:.0f}% of gross profit via spread/commission.")
|
||
print(f"\n--- In-Sample ---")
|
||
_fmt_block("IS", result, "is_")
|
||
print(f"--- Out-of-Sample ---")
|
||
_fmt_block("OOS", result, "oos_")
|
||
print(f"\nModels saved. Run --mode export to generate ONNX.")
|
||
|
||
|
||
def cmd_compare(args):
|
||
"""Train and backtest the specified timeframes, then show a side-by-side comparison."""
|
||
balance = _resolve_balance(args)
|
||
broker = args.broker
|
||
tfs = [t.strip().upper() for t in args.tf.split(",")]
|
||
results = {}
|
||
|
||
for tf in tfs:
|
||
try:
|
||
params = get_best_params(balance=balance, broker=broker, tf=tf)
|
||
except Exception:
|
||
params = {}
|
||
|
||
try:
|
||
result, *_ = _train_for_tf(tf, balance, broker, params)
|
||
if "oos_sharpe_ratio" in result:
|
||
_oos_fdd = result.get("oos_floating_max_drawdown", result.get("oos_max_drawdown", 0.0))
|
||
result["oos_score"] = _calc_score({
|
||
"total_return": result.get("oos_total_return", 0.0),
|
||
"floating_max_drawdown": _oos_fdd,
|
||
"sharpe_ratio": result.get("oos_sharpe_ratio", 0.0),
|
||
"profit_factor": result.get("oos_profit_factor", 1.0),
|
||
})
|
||
results[tf] = result
|
||
except FileNotFoundError as e:
|
||
logger.error("Skipping %s: %s", tf, e)
|
||
continue
|
||
|
||
if len(results) < 2:
|
||
avail = ", ".join(tfs)
|
||
print(f"\nOnly {len(results)} timeframe(s) available. Run --mode process --tf {avail} first.")
|
||
if results:
|
||
tf, r = next(iter(results.items()))
|
||
print(f"\n[{tf}] Sharpe={r['sharpe_ratio']:.3f} | OOS={r.get('oos_sharpe_ratio',0):.3f} "
|
||
f"| DD={r['max_drawdown']*100:.1f}% | Trades={r['n_trades']}")
|
||
return
|
||
|
||
def _oos_score(r):
|
||
return r.get("oos_score", r.get("oos_sharpe_ratio", r.get("sharpe_ratio", 0.0)))
|
||
|
||
winner = max(results, key=lambda k: _oos_score(results[k]))
|
||
col_w = 12
|
||
tf_list = list(results.keys())
|
||
header = f"{'Metric':<20}" + "".join(f" {tf:>{col_w}}" for tf in tf_list)
|
||
|
||
print(f"\n{'='*50}")
|
||
print(f" TIMEFRAME COMPARISON | Balance: ${balance:.0f} | Broker: {broker}")
|
||
print(f"{'='*50}")
|
||
print(header)
|
||
print("-" * len(header))
|
||
metrics_to_show = [
|
||
("OOS Score", "oos_score", ".2f"),
|
||
("OOS Sharpe", "oos_sharpe_ratio", ".3f"),
|
||
("OOS RF", "oos_recovery_factor", ".2f"),
|
||
("OOS PF", "oos_profit_factor", ".2f"),
|
||
("IS Sharpe", "is_sharpe_ratio", ".3f"),
|
||
("OOS Float DD", "oos_floating_max_drawdown", ".1%"),
|
||
("OOS Win Rate", "oos_win_rate", ".1%"),
|
||
("OOS Trades", "oos_n_trades", "d"),
|
||
("Full Sharpe", "sharpe_ratio", ".3f"),
|
||
]
|
||
for label, key, fmt in metrics_to_show:
|
||
row = f"{label:<20}"
|
||
for tf in tf_list:
|
||
r = results[tf]
|
||
val = r.get(key, r.get(key.replace("oos_", "").replace("is_", ""), 0))
|
||
s = f"{val:{fmt}}" if fmt != "d" else str(int(val))
|
||
row += f" {s:>{col_w}}"
|
||
print(row)
|
||
|
||
for tf, r in results.items():
|
||
logger.info(
|
||
" %s Sharpe=%.3f (OOS=%.3f) | DD=%.1f%% | WR=%.1f%% | Trades=%d",
|
||
tf, r["sharpe_ratio"], r.get("oos_sharpe_ratio", r["sharpe_ratio"]),
|
||
r["max_drawdown"] * 100, r["win_rate"] * 100, r["n_trades"],
|
||
)
|
||
|
||
print(f"\n-> Recommended timeframe: {winner} (higher OOS Score)")
|
||
print(f" Run: python main.py --mode train --tf {winner} --broker {broker} --balance {balance:.0f}")
|
||
|
||
|
||
def cmd_export(args):
|
||
tf = args.tf.upper()
|
||
broker = args.broker
|
||
xgb_path = get_ensemble_path(tf, broker)
|
||
if not xgb_path.exists():
|
||
xgb_path = ENSEMBLE_PKL_PATH
|
||
try:
|
||
models_ensemble, _, xgb_metrics = load_xgb_ensemble(xgb_path)
|
||
except FileNotFoundError:
|
||
logger.error("No trained ensemble model found. Run --mode train first.")
|
||
sys.exit(1)
|
||
feature_cols = xgb_metrics.get("feature_cols", FEATURE_COLS)
|
||
n_features = len(feature_cols)
|
||
paths = export_onnx_ensemble(models_ensemble, n_features=n_features)
|
||
print(f"\nONNX ensemble exported ({n_features} features: {feature_cols}):")
|
||
for bucket, path in paths.items():
|
||
print(f" [{bucket:>4}] {path}")
|
||
print("\nCopy these files to your MT5 MQL5/Files/ directory.")
|
||
print("The EA selects the model based on the current ATR volatility bucket.")
|
||
|
||
|
||
def cmd_sync_validate(args):
|
||
"""Download recent MT5 bars then run the model validation gatekeeper."""
|
||
from src.mt5_sync import sync_mt5_data
|
||
from src.validator import run_validation
|
||
|
||
balance = _resolve_balance(args)
|
||
tf = args.tf.upper()
|
||
|
||
logger.info("Syncing MT5 data [%s] period=%s ...", tf, args.period)
|
||
try:
|
||
df = sync_mt5_data(tf=tf, period=args.period)
|
||
logger.info(
|
||
"Sync complete: %d bars %s -> %s",
|
||
len(df), df.index.min(), df.index.max(),
|
||
)
|
||
except Exception as exc:
|
||
logger.error("MT5 sync failed: %s", exc)
|
||
sys.exit(1)
|
||
|
||
try:
|
||
result = run_validation(tf=tf, broker=args.broker, account_size=balance)
|
||
except Exception as exc:
|
||
logger.error("Validation error: %s", exc)
|
||
sys.exit(1)
|
||
|
||
print(f"\n=== Validation Result [{tf}] ===")
|
||
_fdd = result.get("max_dd", 0.0)
|
||
_eff = result.get("avg_efficiency", 0.0)
|
||
_cost_e = result.get("cost_efficiency", 0.0)
|
||
_payout = format_payout(result.get("total_return", 0.0), balance, args.broker)
|
||
print(
|
||
f" [{tf} LIVE] Score: {result.get('score', 0.0):.2f}"
|
||
f" | RF: {result.get('recovery_factor', 0.0):.2f}"
|
||
f" | PF: {result.get('profit_factor', 1.0):.2f}"
|
||
f" | Payoff: ${result.get('expected_payoff', 0.0)*balance:.4f}"
|
||
f" | MaxDD: {_fdd*100:.1f}% (Floating)"
|
||
)
|
||
print(
|
||
f" Efficiency: {_eff:.2f}x ATR/Spread"
|
||
f" | CostEff: {_cost_e*100:.1f}%"
|
||
f" | Total Payout: {_payout}"
|
||
)
|
||
if _eff < 1.2:
|
||
print(" ⚠️ WARNING: Low Market Efficiency — Spread is eating your edge.")
|
||
if _cost_e < 0.50:
|
||
print(f" ⚠️ WARNING: Broker is consuming >{(1-_cost_e)*100:.0f}% of gross profit.")
|
||
print(f" Sharpe: {result['sharpe']:.3f} | Trades: {result['n_trades']} | WR: {result['win_rate']*100:.1f}%")
|
||
print(f" Status: {result['status'].upper()}")
|
||
print(f" {result['message']}")
|
||
|
||
if result["status"] == "fail":
|
||
print(
|
||
"\nABORTING: Validation failed. "
|
||
"Retune with --mode optimize then --mode train before going live."
|
||
)
|
||
sys.exit(1)
|
||
if result["status"] == "warn":
|
||
print("\nWARNING: Borderline performance — consider re-optimising before live trading.")
|
||
|
||
|
||
def cmd_demo(args):
|
||
"""Connect to MT5 demo account and start the live signal execution loop."""
|
||
from src.mt5_trader import run_live_loop
|
||
|
||
balance = _resolve_balance(args)
|
||
tf = args.tf.upper()
|
||
|
||
if not _check_m5_readiness(tf, args.broker):
|
||
sys.exit(1)
|
||
|
||
_check_model_staleness(tf, args.broker, args)
|
||
|
||
logger.info("Starting demo loop — TF=%s broker=%s balance=$%.0f",
|
||
tf, args.broker, balance,
|
||
)
|
||
run_live_loop(tf=tf, broker=args.broker, account_size=balance,
|
||
prob_threshold_override=getattr(args, "prob_threshold", None),
|
||
short_threshold_override=getattr(args, "short_threshold", None),
|
||
profit_target=getattr(args, "profit_target", None))
|
||
|
||
|
||
def cmd_live(args):
|
||
"""Connect to MT5 live account and start the live signal execution loop."""
|
||
from src.mt5_trader import run_live_loop
|
||
|
||
balance = _resolve_balance(args)
|
||
tf = args.tf.upper()
|
||
|
||
if not _check_m5_readiness(tf, args.broker):
|
||
sys.exit(1)
|
||
|
||
_check_model_staleness(tf, args.broker, args)
|
||
|
||
if not args.yes:
|
||
print("\n" + "=" * 60)
|
||
print(" WARNING: LIVE ACCOUNT — real money is at risk.")
|
||
print(" Ensure --mode sync_validate passed before continuing.")
|
||
print(" Ensure the GoldRegimeX EA is removed from the XAUUSD chart.")
|
||
confirm = input(" Type YES to confirm live trading: ").strip()
|
||
if confirm != "YES":
|
||
print("Aborted.")
|
||
sys.exit(0)
|
||
print("=" * 60 + "\n")
|
||
|
||
logger.info(
|
||
"Starting live loop — TF=%s broker=%s balance=$%.0f",
|
||
tf, args.broker, balance,
|
||
)
|
||
run_live_loop(tf=tf, broker=args.broker, account_size=balance,
|
||
prob_threshold_override=getattr(args, "prob_threshold", None),
|
||
short_threshold_override=getattr(args, "short_threshold", None),
|
||
profit_target=getattr(args, "profit_target", None))
|
||
|
||
|
||
def cmd_report(args):
|
||
balance = _resolve_balance(args)
|
||
broker = args.broker
|
||
tf = args.tf.upper()
|
||
|
||
try:
|
||
params = get_best_params(balance=balance, broker=broker, tf=tf)
|
||
except Exception:
|
||
params = {}
|
||
|
||
df = process_pipeline(obs_cov=params.get("obs_cov"), trans_cov=params.get("trans_cov"),
|
||
save=False, tf=tf)
|
||
|
||
_hmm_path = hmm_model_path(tf, broker)
|
||
if not _hmm_path.exists():
|
||
_hmm_path = None # let the except branch fit a fresh one
|
||
try:
|
||
if _hmm_path is None:
|
||
raise FileNotFoundError
|
||
model_hmm = load_hmm(_hmm_path)
|
||
from src.engine_hmm import predict_states, STATE_NAMES_3, STATE_NAMES_2, STATE_NAMES_4
|
||
states = predict_states(model_hmm, df)
|
||
n = model_hmm.n_components
|
||
state_names = {2: STATE_NAMES_2, 3: STATE_NAMES_3, 4: STATE_NAMES_4}.get(n, STATE_NAMES_3)
|
||
except Exception:
|
||
model_hmm, states, state_names = fit_hmm(df, n_states=params.get("n_states", 3))
|
||
|
||
# Load the saved feature scaler so the report uses identical scaling to training
|
||
try:
|
||
_feat_scaler = load_feature_scaler(tf=tf, broker=broker)
|
||
except FileNotFoundError:
|
||
_feat_scaler = None # old model without scaler — prepare_features fits fresh
|
||
|
||
X, y, df_aligned, _ = prepare_features(df, states, feature_scaler=_feat_scaler, tf=tf)
|
||
|
||
_xgb_path = get_ensemble_path(tf, broker)
|
||
if not _xgb_path.exists():
|
||
_xgb_path = ENSEMBLE_PKL_PATH
|
||
try:
|
||
models_xgb, thresholds_xgb, metrics = load_xgb_ensemble(_xgb_path)
|
||
# If the saved ensemble was trained with different features (e.g. before DXY
|
||
# was added), retrain in-memory so the report stays consistent with the data.
|
||
if metrics.get("feature_cols") != list(X.columns):
|
||
raise ValueError("Feature mismatch — retraining for report.")
|
||
except (FileNotFoundError, ValueError):
|
||
models_xgb, thresholds_xgb, metrics = train_xgb_ensemble(
|
||
X, y,
|
||
max_depth=params.get("max_depth", 4),
|
||
learning_rate=params.get("learning_rate", 0.1),
|
||
n_estimators=params.get("n_estimators", 200),
|
||
subsample=params.get("subsample", 0.8),
|
||
colsample_bytree=params.get("colsample_bytree", 0.8),
|
||
min_child_weight=params.get("min_child_weight", 5),
|
||
gamma=params.get("gamma", 1.0),
|
||
reg_alpha=params.get("reg_alpha", 0.1),
|
||
)
|
||
|
||
_, probabilities = get_predictions_ensemble(models_xgb, thresholds_xgb, X)
|
||
states_aligned = states[df.index.isin(df_aligned.index)]
|
||
|
||
# split_idx in saved metrics may come from a different TF's training run
|
||
# (e.g. M15 split_idx ~186k used in an H1 report with only ~58k bars).
|
||
# Recompute from current data when the stored value doesn't fit.
|
||
split_idx = metrics.get("split_idx")
|
||
if split_idx is None or not (0 < split_idx < len(X)):
|
||
split_idx = int(len(X) * 0.8)
|
||
|
||
result = vectorized_backtest(
|
||
df_aligned, probabilities, states_aligned,
|
||
split_idx=split_idx, account_size=balance, broker=broker, tf=tf,
|
||
prob_threshold=params.get("prob_threshold"),
|
||
short_threshold=params.get("short_threshold"),
|
||
)
|
||
|
||
arm = AdaptiveRiskManager(balance, broker=broker)
|
||
limits = arm.get_trade_limits()
|
||
display_params = dict(params)
|
||
display_params.update({
|
||
"broker": broker,
|
||
"balance_usd": balance,
|
||
"tier": "small" if arm.is_small_account else "growth",
|
||
"pos_per_trade": limits["pos_per_trade"],
|
||
"tf": tf,
|
||
})
|
||
|
||
paths = generate_full_report(
|
||
df_aligned, states_aligned, state_names, model_hmm,
|
||
X, probabilities, metrics, result, display_params,
|
||
split_idx=split_idx, tf=tf, broker=broker,
|
||
prob_threshold=params.get("prob_threshold"),
|
||
short_threshold=params.get("short_threshold"),
|
||
)
|
||
|
||
print(f"\n=== Report Generated [{tf} / {broker}] ===")
|
||
for p in paths:
|
||
print(f" {p}")
|
||
print(f"\n5 charts saved to reports/{tf}_{broker}/")
|
||
|
||
|
||
def cmd_audit(args):
|
||
"""Print (and optionally send) the daily MT5 performance report."""
|
||
from src.auditor import get_daily_report
|
||
from src.notifier import send_telegram_msg
|
||
|
||
balance = _resolve_balance(args)
|
||
report = get_daily_report(broker=args.broker)
|
||
print(report)
|
||
sent = send_telegram_msg(report)
|
||
if sent:
|
||
print("\nReport also sent to Telegram.")
|
||
else:
|
||
print("\n(Telegram not configured — see .env.example)")
|
||
|
||
|
||
def cmd_guardian(args):
|
||
"""Start the multi-TF health monitor loop."""
|
||
from src.guardian import run_guardian
|
||
|
||
balance = _resolve_balance(args)
|
||
tfs = [t.strip().upper() for t in args.tf.split(",")]
|
||
interval = getattr(args, "interval", 3600)
|
||
|
||
run_guardian(
|
||
tfs=tfs,
|
||
broker=args.broker,
|
||
account_size=balance,
|
||
period=args.period,
|
||
interval_sec=interval,
|
||
)
|
||
|
||
|
||
def cmd_consolidate(args):
|
||
"""Consolidate USDCHF CSV exports in data/raw/ into per-TF master files.
|
||
|
||
Produces:
|
||
data/processed/USDCHF_master.csv (H1 — source: USDCHF_H1.csv)
|
||
data/processed/USDCHF_master_M15.csv (M15 — source: USDCHF_M15_*.csv)
|
||
data/processed/USDCHF_master_M5.csv (M5 — source: USDCHF_M5_*.csv)
|
||
"""
|
||
from src.data_consolidator import (
|
||
consolidate_usdchf,
|
||
consolidate_usdchf_m15,
|
||
consolidate_usdchf_m5,
|
||
)
|
||
for fn, label, out in [
|
||
(consolidate_usdchf, "H1", "data/processed/USDCHF_master.csv"),
|
||
(consolidate_usdchf_m15, "M15", "data/processed/USDCHF_master_M15.csv"),
|
||
(consolidate_usdchf_m5, "M5", "data/processed/USDCHF_master_M5.csv"),
|
||
]:
|
||
result = fn()
|
||
if not result.empty:
|
||
print(f" USDCHF {label}: {len(result)} rows → {out}")
|
||
else:
|
||
logger.warning("USDCHF %s consolidation produced no data — skipping.", label)
|
||
|
||
|
||
def cmd_listen(args):
|
||
"""Start the Telegram remote control listener + nightly report scheduler."""
|
||
import threading
|
||
from src.remote_control import run_listener
|
||
from src.notifier import send_telegram_msg
|
||
from src.auditor import get_daily_report
|
||
|
||
balance = _resolve_balance(args)
|
||
|
||
# ── Nightly audit scheduler (runs in background thread) ──────────────────
|
||
def _run_scheduler():
|
||
try:
|
||
import schedule
|
||
except ImportError:
|
||
logger.warning(
|
||
"schedule package not installed — nightly report disabled. "
|
||
"Install with: pip install schedule"
|
||
)
|
||
return
|
||
|
||
def _send_nightly():
|
||
report = get_daily_report(broker=args.broker)
|
||
send_telegram_msg(f"<b>Nightly Report</b>\n{report}")
|
||
logger.info("Nightly report sent via Telegram.")
|
||
|
||
schedule.every().day.at("23:55").do(_send_nightly)
|
||
logger.info("Nightly report scheduled at 23:55 UTC.")
|
||
while True:
|
||
schedule.run_pending()
|
||
time.sleep(60)
|
||
|
||
sched_thread = threading.Thread(target=_run_scheduler, daemon=True)
|
||
sched_thread.start()
|
||
|
||
# ── Blocking Telegram listener ────────────────────────────────────────────
|
||
run_listener()
|
||
|
||
|
||
def main():
|
||
parser = argparse.ArgumentParser(description="Gold Regime X — Hybrid ML Trading System")
|
||
parser.add_argument(
|
||
"--mode",
|
||
choices=["process", "optimize", "train", "compare", "export", "report",
|
||
"sync_validate", "demo", "live", "audit", "guardian", "listen",
|
||
"consolidate", "wfa"],
|
||
required=True,
|
||
)
|
||
parser.add_argument("--trials", type=int, default=250)
|
||
parser.add_argument("--n_jobs", type=int, default=1,
|
||
help="Parallel Optuna trial workers (default 1). "
|
||
"See optimizer.py for caveats with n_jobs>1.")
|
||
parser.add_argument("--interval", type=int, default=3600,
|
||
help="Guardian check interval in seconds (default 3600 = 1h).")
|
||
parser.add_argument("--min_cap", type=float, default=15.0,
|
||
help="Account capital in USD (legacy, use --balance)")
|
||
parser.add_argument("--balance", type=float, default=None,
|
||
help="Account balance in USD — overrides --min_cap")
|
||
parser.add_argument("--broker", type=str, default="standard",
|
||
choices=["standard", "headway_cent"])
|
||
parser.add_argument("--tf", type=str, default="H1",
|
||
help="Timeframe: H1 | M15 | M15,H1 (process/compare accept comma list)")
|
||
parser.add_argument("--period", type=str, default="3m",
|
||
help="Lookback window for MT5 sync, e.g. '3m' '6m' '12m'.")
|
||
parser.add_argument("--yes", action="store_true",
|
||
help="Skip the interactive live-account confirmation (used when launched as a subprocess).")
|
||
parser.add_argument("--prob_threshold", type=float, default=None,
|
||
help="Override BUY probability threshold for --mode live (skips Optuna lookup).")
|
||
parser.add_argument("--short_threshold", type=float, default=None,
|
||
help="Override SELL probability threshold for --mode live (skips Optuna lookup).")
|
||
parser.add_argument("--profit_target", type=float, default=None,
|
||
help="Quick-profit close threshold in USD. M5 defaults to 4.0; "
|
||
"other TFs disabled unless set. Pass 0 to disable on M5.")
|
||
parser.add_argument("--skip_stale_check", action="store_true",
|
||
help="Bypass the model-staleness gate on --mode live/demo. "
|
||
"Use when intentionally running an older model (e.g. demo testing).")
|
||
parser.add_argument("--train_days", type=int, default=None,
|
||
help="WFA IS window in calendar days (default: H1=365, M15=180, M5=90).")
|
||
parser.add_argument("--test_days", type=int, default=None,
|
||
help="WFA OOS step size in calendar days (default: H1=90, M15=60, M5=30).")
|
||
|
||
args = parser.parse_args()
|
||
{
|
||
"process": cmd_process,
|
||
"optimize": cmd_optimize,
|
||
"train": cmd_train,
|
||
"compare": cmd_compare,
|
||
"export": cmd_export,
|
||
"report": cmd_report,
|
||
"sync_validate": cmd_sync_validate,
|
||
"demo": cmd_demo,
|
||
"live": cmd_live,
|
||
"audit": cmd_audit,
|
||
"guardian": cmd_guardian,
|
||
"listen": cmd_listen,
|
||
"consolidate": cmd_consolidate,
|
||
"wfa": cmd_wfa,
|
||
}[args.mode](args)
|
||
|
||
|
||
if __name__ == "__main__":
|
||
main()
|