mirror of
https://github.com/lucasmos/GoldRegime_X.git
synced 2026-11-02 06:26:15 +00:00
Luke Mosoti
c1dbf315c8
- Introduced `test_lifecycle_parity.py` to verify event timelines between live and backtest evaluations, ensuring consistent activation, partial close, scalp exit, and regime shift behaviors across different timeframes. - Added `test_lifecycle_units.py` for unit testing of lifecycle configurations, including cent normalization, activation thresholds, and the absence of R-multiple fields. - Created `test_three_state_contract.py` to enforce and validate the three-state regime (TREND, MEAN_REVERSION, VOLATILITY_SHOCK) across various components, ensuring that any attempt to use more than three states raises appropriate errors.
1338 lines
55 KiB
Python
1338 lines
55 KiB
Python
import argparse
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import json
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import sys
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import time
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from pathlib import Path
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sys.path.insert(0, str(Path(__file__).parent))
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# Force UTF-8 output on Windows so emoji/em-dash in log lines don't crash the terminal
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if hasattr(sys.stdout, "reconfigure"):
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sys.stdout.reconfigure(encoding="utf-8", errors="replace")
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if hasattr(sys.stderr, "reconfigure"):
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sys.stderr.reconfigure(encoding="utf-8", errors="replace")
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# Load .env for Telegram credentials (silently ignored if python-dotenv not installed)
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try:
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from dotenv import load_dotenv
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load_dotenv()
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except ImportError:
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pass
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from src.logger import setup_logger, reconfigure_for_tf
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from src.processor import process_pipeline, TF_CONFIG, PROCESSED_PATH, save_feature_scaler, load_feature_scaler
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from src.engine_hmm import fit_hmm, save_model as save_hmm, load_model as load_hmm, get_model_path as hmm_model_path
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from src.engine_xgb import (
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prepare_features, train_xgb, get_predictions,
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export_onnx, save_xgb, load_xgb, ONNX_PATH, FEATURE_COLS,
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train_xgb_ensemble, get_predictions_ensemble,
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save_xgb_ensemble, load_xgb_ensemble, export_onnx_ensemble, ENSEMBLE_PKL_PATH,
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get_ensemble_path, TF_TRAIN_RATIO, compute_regime_stats,
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train_regime_models, get_regime_predictions,
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save_regime_models, load_regime_models, TB_CONFIG,
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)
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from src.optimizer import (
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run_optimization, get_best_params, _score_result as _calc_score,
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extract_consensus_params, run_wfa as optimizer_run_wfa,
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WFO_PARAMS, WFO_PARAMS_FAST,
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run_optimization_stage1,
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CPCV_N_BLOCKS, CPCV_K_TEST, _N_PATHS,
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resolve_n_states as _optimizer_resolve_n_states,
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)
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from src.backtester import vectorized_backtest, format_payout
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from src.visualizer import generate_full_report
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from src.risk_manager import AdaptiveRiskManager
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logger = setup_logger("main")
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def _resolve_balance(args) -> float:
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"""--balance takes precedence over --min_cap."""
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return args.balance if args.balance is not None else args.min_cap
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def resolve_n_states(tf: str, params: dict) -> int:
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"""Return the canonical n_states for *tf* in both optimize and train paths.
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The canonical regime contract mandates exactly 3 states for ALL timeframes:
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TREND (0), MEAN_REVERSION (1), VOLATILITY_SHOCK (2).
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Passing any other value raises immediately so mis-configured runs fail fast.
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"""
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requested = int(params.get("n_states", 3))
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if requested != 3:
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raise ValueError(
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f"n_states must be 3 for all TFs (canonical regime contract). "
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f"Received {requested} for {tf}. "
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f"Supported states: TREND(0), MEAN_REVERSION(1), VOLATILITY_SHOCK(2)."
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)
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return 3
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_M5_EXPIRY_HOURS = 120 # 5 days
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# Staleness thresholds per TF (days). If the saved model is older than this
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# the live gate aborts with a warning and Telegram alert.
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# M5 is tightest (14d) — microstructure regimes shift weekly.
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# H1/M15 are more stable but should still re-optimise monthly.
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_MODEL_STALE_DAYS = {"M5": 14, "M15": 30, "H1": 30}
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def _m5_meta_path(broker: str) -> Path:
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return Path(f"models/m5_meta_{broker}.json")
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def _check_m5_readiness(tf: str, broker: str = "headway_cent") -> bool:
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"""Return True if the M5 model is fresh enough for live trading.
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The M5 timeframe is sensitive to microstructure changes, so the model
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must have been optimised within the last 5 days. A meta.json timestamp
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is written by cmd_optimize after each successful M5 study.
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"""
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if tf.upper() != "M5":
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return True
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meta_path = _m5_meta_path(broker)
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if not meta_path.exists():
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# Legacy fallback: files created before per-broker naming used models/m5_meta.json
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_legacy = Path("models/m5_meta.json")
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if _legacy.exists():
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logger.info(
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"Migrating legacy m5_meta.json -> %s for broker=%s.", meta_path, broker
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)
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meta_path.write_text(_legacy.read_text())
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else:
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print(
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"\nERROR: M5 model meta-data not found.\n"
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"Run python main.py --mode optimize --tf M5 before live trading."
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)
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return False
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meta = json.loads(meta_path.read_text())
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age_h = (time.time() - meta.get("timestamp", 0)) / 3600
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if age_h > _M5_EXPIRY_HOURS:
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print(
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f"\nWARNING: M5 model is {age_h:.0f} hours old (limit: {_M5_EXPIRY_HOURS}h / 5 days).\n"
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"REQUIRED ACTION: Run python main.py --mode optimize --tf M5 to refresh before live.\n"
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"\n Pre-flight checklist:\n"
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" 1. python main.py --mode sync_validate --period 3m --tf M5\n"
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" 2. python main.py --mode optimize --tf M5 --trials 500 --balance 15\n"
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" 3. python main.py --mode train --tf M5\n"
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)
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return False
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return True
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def _train_for_tf(tf: str, balance: float, broker: str, params: dict):
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"""Shared train logic for a single timeframe. Returns (result, model_hmm, states, X, metrics).
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Uses regime-specific XGBoost models (TREND + SHOCK, no MR trading).
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The `tf` kwarg is now correctly forwarded to fit_hmm for TF-aware HMM config.
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"""
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df = process_pipeline(
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obs_cov=params.get("obs_cov"),
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trans_cov=params.get("trans_cov"),
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save=True,
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tf=tf,
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save_models=True,
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broker=broker,
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)
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model_hmm, states, state_map = fit_hmm(
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df, n_states=resolve_n_states(tf, params), tf=tf # fix: tf= was missing before
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)
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X, y, df_aligned, feature_scaler = prepare_features(df, states, tf=tf)
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save_feature_scaler(feature_scaler, tf=tf, broker=broker)
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xgb_kwargs = dict(
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max_depth=params.get("max_depth", 4),
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learning_rate=params.get("learning_rate", 0.05),
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n_estimators=params.get("n_estimators", 500),
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subsample=params.get("subsample", 0.8),
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colsample_bytree=params.get("colsample_bytree", 0.8),
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min_child_weight=params.get("min_child_weight", 5),
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gamma=params.get("gamma", 1.0),
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reg_alpha=params.get("reg_alpha", 0.1),
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reg_lambda=params.get("reg_lambda", 1.0),
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scale_pos_weight=params.get("scale_pos_weight", 1.0),
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)
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states_aligned = states[df.index.isin(df_aligned.index)]
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# ── Regime-specific training ───────────────────────────────────────────
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regime_result = train_regime_models(X, y, states_aligned, tf=tf, **xgb_kwargs)
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save_regime_models(regime_result, tf=tf, broker=broker)
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probabilities = get_regime_predictions(
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X, states_aligned,
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regime_result["trend_model"], regime_result["shock_model"],
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)
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metrics = {
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"trend_n": regime_result["trend_n"],
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"shock_n": regime_result["shock_n"],
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"trend_metrics": regime_result["trend_metrics"],
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"shock_metrics": regime_result["shock_metrics"],
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}
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# Legacy ensemble also saved for backward-compat exports (ONNX, MT5 sync)
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models_ensemble, thresholds, ens_metrics = train_xgb_ensemble(
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X, y, train_ratio=1.0, **xgb_kwargs
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)
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metrics.update(ens_metrics)
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metrics["regime_stats"] = compute_regime_stats(models_ensemble, thresholds, X, states_aligned)
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result = vectorized_backtest(
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df_aligned, probabilities, states_aligned,
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split_idx=None, # full-data model — CPCV scores used for validation
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account_size=balance,
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broker=broker,
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tf=tf,
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hmm_transmat=model_hmm.transmat_,
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)
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return result, model_hmm, state_map, models_ensemble, thresholds, metrics, df_aligned, states_aligned, X, probabilities
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def _check_model_staleness(tf: str, broker: str, args) -> None:
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"""Abort live/demo start if the saved model exceeds the staleness threshold.
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Sends a Telegram alert and calls ``sys.exit(1)`` when the model is too old.
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Pass ``--skip_stale_check`` on the CLI to bypass this gate (e.g. for demo
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testing when you intentionally don't want to re-optimise).
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Does nothing for unknown TFs or when ``--skip_stale_check`` is set.
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"""
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if getattr(args, "skip_stale_check", False):
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logger.info("Staleness gate bypassed (--skip_stale_check).")
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return
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from src.validator import check_model_age
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from src.notifier import send_telegram_msg
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max_age = _MODEL_STALE_DAYS.get(tf.upper(), 30)
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age_days = check_model_age(tf=tf, broker=broker)
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if age_days <= max_age:
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logger.info(
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"Model freshness OK: %s/%s is %.1f days old (limit %d).",
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tf, broker, age_days, max_age,
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)
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return
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age_str = f"{age_days:.0f}" if age_days != float("inf") else "unknown (file missing)"
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msg = (
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f"⚠️ Market Drift/Staleness detected. Pausing trade loop — "
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f"[{tf}] model is {age_str} days old (limit: {max_age} days).\n"
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f"Re-optimise before going live:\n"
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f" python main.py --mode optimize --tf {tf} --broker {broker} --trials 500\n"
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f" python main.py --mode train --tf {tf} --broker {broker}\n"
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f"Add --skip_stale_check to the live command to bypass this gate."
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)
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logger.warning("STALE MODEL [%s/%s]: %.0f days old — aborting.", tf, broker, age_days)
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send_telegram_msg(f"<b>{msg}</b>")
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print(f"\n{msg}")
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sys.exit(1)
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def cmd_wfa(args):
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"""Walk-Forward Analysis using CPCV.
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Uses the best Optuna params from the study DB to evaluate all
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C(N,K) combinatorial train/test paths (CPCV). Prints per-path OOS
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diagnostics and path-score statistics.
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"""
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import pandas as pd
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from src.notifier import send_telegram_msg
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balance = _resolve_balance(args)
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broker = args.broker
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tf = args.tf.upper()
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wfo_mode = "fast" if getattr(args, "fast_wfo", False) else "standard"
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reconfigure_for_tf(tf)
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processed_path = TF_CONFIG[tf]["processed_path"]
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if not processed_path.exists():
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print(f"\nERROR: Run --mode process --tf {tf} first.")
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sys.exit(1)
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df = pd.read_parquet(processed_path)
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print(f"\n=== Walk-Forward Analysis [{tf} / {broker}] (mode: {wfo_mode}) ===")
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print(f" Dataset: {len(df)} bars ({df.index[0].date()} – {df.index[-1].date()})")
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print(f" Running CPCV ({CPCV_N_BLOCKS} blocks, C({CPCV_N_BLOCKS},{CPCV_K_TEST})={_N_PATHS} paths) with best Optuna params...\n")
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wfa = optimizer_run_wfa(
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df=df, tf=tf, broker=broker,
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account_size=balance, wfo_mode=wfo_mode,
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)
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n_paths = wfa["n_windows"]
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n_valid = wfa["n_valid_windows"]
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scores = wfa["window_scores"]
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verdict = "ROBUST" if n_valid >= n_paths // 2 else "FRAGILE — re-optimise recommended"
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print(f" Total CPCV paths : {n_paths}")
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print(f" Valid paths : {n_valid} (OOS trades above hard floor, DD < 20%)")
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print(f" Median OOS score : {float(__import__('numpy').median(scores)) if scores else 0.0:+.3f}")
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print(f" Std OOS Sharpe : {wfa['std_sharpe']:.3f}")
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print(f" Median OOS trades : {wfa['median_trades']}")
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print(f" Verdict : {verdict}")
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print(f" CPCV score : {wfa['wfo_score']:+.3f}")
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if scores:
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print("\n Per-path scores:")
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for i, s in enumerate(scores):
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bar = "#" * max(0, int((s + 1) * 5))
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print(f" Path {i+1:>2}: {s:+.3f} {bar}")
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send_telegram_msg(
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f"<b>Walk-Forward Analysis [{tf}]</b>\n"
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f"Valid paths: <b>{n_valid}/{n_paths}</b> | CPCV score: <b>{wfa['wfo_score']:+.3f}</b>\n"
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+ ("Robust" if n_valid >= n_paths // 2 else "Fragile — re-optimise")
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)
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def cmd_process(args):
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tfs = [t.strip().upper() for t in args.tf.split(",")]
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for tf in tfs:
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if tf not in TF_CONFIG:
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logger.error("Unknown timeframe '%s'. Valid: %s", tf, list(TF_CONFIG))
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continue
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reconfigure_for_tf(tf)
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# Auto-sync raw CSV from MT5 before processing (same as cmd_optimize does).
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# Silently skipped when MT5 is unavailable.
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try:
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from src.mt5_sync import ensure_data_updated
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ensure_data_updated(tf=tf, symbol="XAUUSD")
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except Exception as _sync_exc:
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logger.warning("Auto-sync skipped (%s). Continuing with existing data.", _sync_exc)
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try:
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df = process_pipeline(save=True, tf=tf, save_models=True, broker=args.broker)
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logger.info(
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"[%s] Done: %d bars | Range: %s to %s",
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tf, len(df), df.index.min(), df.index.max(),
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)
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except FileNotFoundError as e:
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logger.error(str(e))
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def cmd_optimize(args):
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import pandas as pd
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balance = _resolve_balance(args)
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broker = args.broker
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tfs = [t.strip().upper() for t in args.tf.split(",")]
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wfo_mode = "fast" if getattr(args, "fast_wfo", False) else "standard"
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stage = getattr(args, "stage", None) # None | "xgb" | "trading"
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for tf in tfs:
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reconfigure_for_tf(tf)
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# ── Auto-sync raw CSV from MT5 before reading parquet ────────────────
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# If the terminal is running, appends any missing bars to the raw CSV.
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# Silently skipped when MT5 is unavailable (e.g. running headless).
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try:
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from src.mt5_sync import ensure_data_updated
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ensure_data_updated(tf=tf, symbol="XAUUSD")
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except Exception as _sync_exc:
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logger.warning("Auto-sync skipped (%s). Continuing with existing data.", _sync_exc)
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logger.info(
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"Optimizing [%s] broker=%s balance=$%.0f trials=%d wfo_mode=%s stage=%s",
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tf, broker, balance, args.trials, wfo_mode, stage or "joint",
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)
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# Pre-load parquet once — make_objective only calls kalman_smooth per trial
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processed_path = TF_CONFIG[tf]["processed_path"]
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if not processed_path.exists():
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print(
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f"\nERROR: Processed parquet not found for {tf}.\n"
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f"Run python main.py --mode process --tf {tf} first."
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)
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sys.exit(1)
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df = pd.read_parquet(processed_path)
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|
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if stage is not None:
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print(
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f"\n[DEPRECATED] --stage {stage!r} is ignored. "
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"Running unified single-stage pipeline optimization.\n"
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)
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# Unified single-stage CPCV pipeline for all TFs
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if getattr(args, "reset_study", False):
|
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from src.optimizer import get_optuna_storage_url, get_optuna_study_name
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import os, pathlib
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_db_path = pathlib.Path(get_optuna_storage_url(broker).replace("sqlite:///", ""))
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if _db_path.exists():
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logger.info("--reset_study: deleting %s", _db_path)
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os.remove(_db_path)
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else:
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logger.info("--reset_study: no existing db at %s, skipping delete", _db_path)
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study = run_optimization(
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df=df,
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tf=tf,
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broker=broker,
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account_size=balance,
|
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n_trials=args.trials,
|
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wfo_mode=wfo_mode,
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n_jobs=args.n_jobs,
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)
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print(f"\n=== Best Result [{tf}] ===")
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print(f"Score: {study.best_value:.3f}")
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print(f"Broker: {broker} | Balance: ${balance:.0f} | WFO mode: {wfo_mode}")
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print("Best Params:")
|
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for k, v in study.best_params.items():
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print(f" {k}: {v}")
|
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|
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from src.optimizer import get_optuna_storage_url, get_optuna_study_name
|
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_db_url = get_optuna_storage_url(broker)
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_study_nm = get_optuna_study_name(tf, broker)
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print("\nOptuna live dashboard")
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print(f" Storage : {_db_url}")
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print(f" Study : {_study_nm}")
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print(" Run in another terminal:")
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print(f" optuna-dashboard {_db_url} --host 127.0.0.1 --port 8080")
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print(" Then open: http://localhost:8080/")
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if tf == "M5":
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meta_path = _m5_meta_path(broker)
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meta_path.parent.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
|
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meta_path.write_text(json.dumps({
|
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"timestamp": time.time(),
|
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"tf": "M5",
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"best_score": study.best_value,
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}))
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print(
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"\nOptimization Complete. HMM States and XGBoost Weights have been updated. "
|
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"You are now cleared for M5 Live Trading for the next 5 days."
|
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)
|
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|
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|
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def cmd_train(args):
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balance = _resolve_balance(args)
|
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broker = args.broker
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tf = args.tf.upper()
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reconfigure_for_tf(tf)
|
||
|
||
try:
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params = get_best_params(balance=balance, broker=broker, tf=tf)
|
||
logger.info("Using Optuna best params [%s/%s]: %s", tf, broker, params)
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||
except Exception:
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logger.warning("No Optuna study found for tf=%s broker=%s — using defaults", tf, broker)
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params = {}
|
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|
||
result, model_hmm, state_map, models_ensemble, thresholds, metrics, df_aligned, states_aligned, X, probabilities = _train_for_tf(tf, balance, broker, params)
|
||
|
||
# Guard: refuse to save a degenerate HMM — identical state means + near-zero persistence
|
||
# indicate the Kalman/HMM params were bad (usually because Optuna params weren't loaded).
|
||
_min_persist = min(model_hmm.transmat_[i, i] for i in range(model_hmm.n_components))
|
||
if _min_persist < 0.70:
|
||
logger.critical(
|
||
"TRAINING ABORTED: degenerate HMM (min persistence=%.4f). "
|
||
"Model NOT saved. Usually caused by missing Optuna study for tf=%s broker=%s. "
|
||
"Ensure --mode optimize has completed and re-run --mode train.",
|
||
_min_persist, tf, broker,
|
||
)
|
||
print(
|
||
f"\nERROR: Degenerate HMM detected (min state persistence={_min_persist:.4f} < 0.70).\n"
|
||
f"The model was NOT saved — saving it would only produce garbage signals.\n"
|
||
f"\nFix: python main.py --mode optimize --tf {tf} --broker {broker} --trials 300\n"
|
||
f"Then: python main.py --mode train --tf {tf} --broker {broker}\n"
|
||
)
|
||
sys.exit(1)
|
||
|
||
save_hmm(model_hmm, hmm_model_path(tf, broker))
|
||
save_xgb_ensemble(models_ensemble, thresholds, metrics, get_ensemble_path(tf, broker))
|
||
|
||
arm = AdaptiveRiskManager(balance, broker=broker)
|
||
cpcv_score = None
|
||
try:
|
||
import optuna as _optuna
|
||
from src.optimizer import get_optuna_storage_url, get_optuna_study_name
|
||
_storage = get_optuna_storage_url(broker)
|
||
_study_nm = get_optuna_study_name(tf, broker)
|
||
_study = _optuna.load_study(study_name=_study_nm, storage=_storage)
|
||
cpcv_score = _study.best_value
|
||
except Exception:
|
||
pass
|
||
|
||
print(f"\n=== Training Results [{tf}] ===")
|
||
print(f"Broker: {broker} | Balance: ${balance:.0f} | Tier: {'small' if arm.is_small_account else 'growth'}")
|
||
print(f"Full-data model trained on 100% of available bars (CPCV validation via optimize step).")
|
||
print(f"Full-period Sharpe: {result['sharpe_ratio']:.3f} | MaxDD: {result['max_drawdown']*100:.1f}%"
|
||
f" | WR: {result['win_rate']*100:.1f}% | Trades: {result['n_trades']}")
|
||
if cpcv_score is not None:
|
||
print(f"CPCV Validation Score (best trial): {cpcv_score:.3f}")
|
||
print(f"\nModels saved. Run --mode export to generate ONNX.")
|
||
|
||
|
||
def cmd_extract_consensus(args):
|
||
"""Extract consensus hyperparameters from top-N trials (median per param).
|
||
|
||
More robust than the single best trial. Prints the consensus params and
|
||
saves them nowhere — use with --mode train to apply the consensus params.
|
||
"""
|
||
tf = args.tf.upper()
|
||
broker = args.broker
|
||
top_n = getattr(args, "top_n", 10)
|
||
min_wfe = getattr(args, "min_wfe", 0.0)
|
||
reconfigure_for_tf(tf)
|
||
|
||
try:
|
||
consensus = extract_consensus_params(tf=tf, broker=broker, top_n=top_n, min_wfe=min_wfe)
|
||
except Exception as exc:
|
||
print(f"\nERROR: {exc}")
|
||
sys.exit(1)
|
||
|
||
meta = consensus.pop("meta", {})
|
||
print(f"\n=== Consensus Params [{tf} / {broker}] ===")
|
||
print(f" Study: {meta.get('study_name', '?')}")
|
||
print(f" Top-N used: {meta.get('top_n_actual', top_n)}")
|
||
print(f" Score range: [{meta.get('min_score', 0.0):.3f}, {meta.get('max_score', 0.0):.3f}]")
|
||
print(f" Mean WFE: {meta.get('mean_wfe', 0.0):.3f}")
|
||
print("\n Consensus parameters (median of top-N):")
|
||
for k, v in sorted(consensus.items()):
|
||
print(f" {k}: {v}")
|
||
|
||
|
||
def cmd_compare(args):
|
||
"""Train and backtest the specified timeframes, then show a side-by-side comparison."""
|
||
balance = _resolve_balance(args)
|
||
broker = args.broker
|
||
tfs = [t.strip().upper() for t in args.tf.split(",")]
|
||
results = {}
|
||
|
||
for tf in tfs:
|
||
reconfigure_for_tf(tf)
|
||
try:
|
||
params = get_best_params(balance=balance, broker=broker, tf=tf)
|
||
except Exception:
|
||
params = {}
|
||
|
||
try:
|
||
result, *_ = _train_for_tf(tf, balance, broker, params)
|
||
if "oos_sharpe_ratio" in result:
|
||
_oos_fdd = result.get("oos_floating_max_drawdown", result.get("oos_max_drawdown", 0.0))
|
||
result["oos_score"] = _calc_score({
|
||
"total_return": result.get("oos_total_return", 0.0),
|
||
"floating_max_drawdown": _oos_fdd,
|
||
"sharpe_ratio": result.get("oos_sharpe_ratio", 0.0),
|
||
"profit_factor": result.get("oos_profit_factor", 1.0),
|
||
})
|
||
results[tf] = result
|
||
except FileNotFoundError as e:
|
||
logger.error("Skipping %s: %s", tf, e)
|
||
continue
|
||
|
||
if len(results) < 2:
|
||
avail = ", ".join(tfs)
|
||
print(f"\nOnly {len(results)} timeframe(s) available. Run --mode process --tf {avail} first.")
|
||
if results:
|
||
tf, r = next(iter(results.items()))
|
||
print(f"\n[{tf}] Sharpe={r['sharpe_ratio']:.3f} | OOS={r.get('oos_sharpe_ratio',0):.3f} "
|
||
f"| DD={r['max_drawdown']*100:.1f}% | Trades={r['n_trades']}")
|
||
return
|
||
|
||
def _oos_score(r):
|
||
return r.get("oos_score", r.get("oos_sharpe_ratio", r.get("sharpe_ratio", 0.0)))
|
||
|
||
winner = max(results, key=lambda k: _oos_score(results[k]))
|
||
col_w = 12
|
||
tf_list = list(results.keys())
|
||
header = f"{'Metric':<20}" + "".join(f" {tf:>{col_w}}" for tf in tf_list)
|
||
|
||
print(f"\n{'='*50}")
|
||
print(f" TIMEFRAME COMPARISON | Balance: ${balance:.0f} | Broker: {broker}")
|
||
print(f"{'='*50}")
|
||
print(header)
|
||
print("-" * len(header))
|
||
metrics_to_show = [
|
||
("OOS Score", "oos_score", ".2f"),
|
||
("OOS Sharpe", "oos_sharpe_ratio", ".3f"),
|
||
("OOS RF", "oos_recovery_factor", ".2f"),
|
||
("OOS PF", "oos_profit_factor", ".2f"),
|
||
("IS Sharpe", "is_sharpe_ratio", ".3f"),
|
||
("OOS Float DD", "oos_floating_max_drawdown", ".1%"),
|
||
("OOS Win Rate", "oos_win_rate", ".1%"),
|
||
("OOS Trades", "oos_n_trades", "d"),
|
||
("Full Sharpe", "sharpe_ratio", ".3f"),
|
||
]
|
||
for label, key, fmt in metrics_to_show:
|
||
row = f"{label:<20}"
|
||
for tf in tf_list:
|
||
r = results[tf]
|
||
val = r.get(key, r.get(key.replace("oos_", "").replace("is_", ""), 0))
|
||
s = f"{val:{fmt}}" if fmt != "d" else str(int(val))
|
||
row += f" {s:>{col_w}}"
|
||
print(row)
|
||
|
||
for tf, r in results.items():
|
||
logger.info(
|
||
" %s Sharpe=%.3f (OOS=%.3f) | DD=%.1f%% | WR=%.1f%% | Trades=%d",
|
||
tf, r["sharpe_ratio"], r.get("oos_sharpe_ratio", r["sharpe_ratio"]),
|
||
r["max_drawdown"] * 100, r["win_rate"] * 100, r["n_trades"],
|
||
)
|
||
|
||
print(f"\n-> Recommended timeframe: {winner} (higher OOS Score)")
|
||
print(f" Run: python main.py --mode train --tf {winner} --broker {broker} --balance {balance:.0f}")
|
||
|
||
|
||
def cmd_export(args):
|
||
tf = args.tf.upper()
|
||
broker = args.broker
|
||
xgb_path = get_ensemble_path(tf, broker)
|
||
if not xgb_path.exists():
|
||
xgb_path = ENSEMBLE_PKL_PATH
|
||
try:
|
||
models_ensemble, _, xgb_metrics = load_xgb_ensemble(xgb_path)
|
||
except FileNotFoundError:
|
||
logger.error("No trained ensemble model found. Run --mode train first.")
|
||
sys.exit(1)
|
||
feature_cols = xgb_metrics.get("feature_cols", FEATURE_COLS)
|
||
n_features = len(feature_cols)
|
||
paths = export_onnx_ensemble(models_ensemble, n_features=n_features)
|
||
print(f"\nONNX ensemble exported ({n_features} features: {feature_cols}):")
|
||
for bucket, path in paths.items():
|
||
print(f" [{bucket:>4}] {path}")
|
||
print("\nCopy these files to your MT5 MQL5/Files/ directory.")
|
||
print("The EA selects the model based on the current ATR volatility bucket.")
|
||
|
||
|
||
def cmd_sync_validate(args):
|
||
"""Download recent MT5 bars then run the model validation gatekeeper."""
|
||
from src.mt5_sync import sync_mt5_data
|
||
from src.validator import run_validation, validate_strategy
|
||
|
||
balance = _resolve_balance(args)
|
||
tf = args.tf.upper()
|
||
reconfigure_for_tf(tf)
|
||
|
||
logger.info("Syncing MT5 data [%s] period=%s ...", tf, args.period)
|
||
try:
|
||
df = sync_mt5_data(tf=tf, period=args.period)
|
||
logger.info(
|
||
"Sync complete: %d bars %s -> %s",
|
||
len(df), df.index.min(), df.index.max(),
|
||
)
|
||
except Exception as exc:
|
||
logger.error("MT5 sync failed: %s", exc)
|
||
sys.exit(1)
|
||
|
||
try:
|
||
result = run_validation(tf=tf, broker=args.broker, account_size=balance)
|
||
except Exception as exc:
|
||
logger.error("Validation error: %s", exc)
|
||
sys.exit(1)
|
||
|
||
# ── Deployment gate (Phase F) ─────────────────────────────────────────
|
||
gate = validate_strategy(result, tf=tf)
|
||
gate_status = gate["status"]
|
||
gate_reason = gate["reason"]
|
||
gate_details = gate["details"]
|
||
|
||
print(f"\n=== Validation Result [{tf}] ===")
|
||
_fdd = result.get("max_dd", 0.0)
|
||
_eff = result.get("avg_efficiency", 0.0)
|
||
_cost_e = result.get("cost_efficiency", 0.0)
|
||
_payout = format_payout(result.get("total_return", 0.0), balance, args.broker)
|
||
print(
|
||
f" [{tf} LIVE] Score: {result.get('score', 0.0):.2f}"
|
||
f" | RF: {result.get('recovery_factor', 0.0):.2f}"
|
||
f" | PF: {result.get('profit_factor', 1.0):.2f}"
|
||
f" | Payoff: ${result.get('expected_payoff', 0.0)*balance:.4f}"
|
||
f" | MaxDD: {_fdd*100:.1f}% (Floating)"
|
||
)
|
||
print(
|
||
f" Efficiency: {_eff:.2f}x ATR/Spread"
|
||
f" | CostEff: {_cost_e*100:.1f}%"
|
||
f" | Total Payout: {_payout}"
|
||
)
|
||
if _eff < 1.2:
|
||
print(" [!] WARNING: Low Market Efficiency — Spread is eating your edge.")
|
||
if _cost_e < 0.50:
|
||
print(f" [!] WARNING: Broker is consuming >{(1-_cost_e)*100:.0f}% of gross profit.")
|
||
print(f" Sharpe: {result['sharpe']:.3f} | Trades: {result['n_trades']} | WR: {result['win_rate']*100:.1f}%")
|
||
print(f" Status: {result['status'].upper()}")
|
||
print(f" {result['message']}")
|
||
|
||
# Gate result
|
||
if gate_status == "fail":
|
||
print(f"\n[DEPLOYMENT GATE] FAIL — reason: {gate_reason}")
|
||
print(f" Details: {gate_details}")
|
||
print(
|
||
"\nABORTING: Deployment gate failed. "
|
||
"Retune with --mode optimize then --mode train before going live."
|
||
)
|
||
sys.exit(1)
|
||
if gate_status == "warn":
|
||
print(f"\n[DEPLOYMENT GATE] WARN — {gate_reason} | details: {gate_details}")
|
||
print(" WARNING: Borderline performance — consider re-optimising before live trading.")
|
||
else:
|
||
print(f"\n[DEPLOYMENT GATE] PASS — all checks OK | details: {gate_details}")
|
||
|
||
if result["status"] == "fail":
|
||
print(
|
||
"\nABORTING: Validation failed. "
|
||
"Retune with --mode optimize then --mode train before going live."
|
||
)
|
||
sys.exit(1)
|
||
if result["status"] == "warn":
|
||
print("\nWARNING: Borderline performance — consider re-optimising before live trading.")
|
||
|
||
|
||
def cmd_demo(args):
|
||
"""Connect to MT5 demo account and start the live signal execution loop."""
|
||
from src.mt5_trader import run_live_loop
|
||
|
||
balance = _resolve_balance(args)
|
||
tf = args.tf.upper()
|
||
|
||
if not _check_m5_readiness(tf, args.broker):
|
||
sys.exit(1)
|
||
|
||
_check_model_staleness(tf, args.broker, args)
|
||
|
||
logger.info("Starting demo loop — TF=%s broker=%s balance=$%.0f",
|
||
tf, args.broker, balance,
|
||
)
|
||
run_live_loop(tf=tf, broker=args.broker, account_size=balance,
|
||
profit_target=getattr(args, "profit_target", None))
|
||
|
||
|
||
def cmd_live(args):
|
||
"""Connect to MT5 live account and start the live signal execution loop."""
|
||
from src.mt5_trader import run_live_loop
|
||
|
||
balance = _resolve_balance(args)
|
||
tf = args.tf.upper()
|
||
reconfigure_for_tf(tf)
|
||
|
||
if not _check_m5_readiness(tf, args.broker):
|
||
sys.exit(1)
|
||
|
||
_check_model_staleness(tf, args.broker, args)
|
||
|
||
if not args.yes:
|
||
print("\n" + "=" * 60)
|
||
print(" WARNING: LIVE ACCOUNT — real money is at risk.")
|
||
print(" Ensure --mode sync_validate passed before continuing.")
|
||
print(" Ensure the GoldRegimeX EA is removed from the XAUUSD chart.")
|
||
confirm = input(" Type YES to confirm live trading: ").strip()
|
||
if confirm != "YES":
|
||
print("Aborted.")
|
||
sys.exit(0)
|
||
print("=" * 60 + "\n")
|
||
|
||
logger.info(
|
||
"Starting live loop — TF=%s broker=%s balance=$%.0f",
|
||
tf, args.broker, balance,
|
||
)
|
||
run_live_loop(tf=tf, broker=args.broker, account_size=balance,
|
||
profit_target=getattr(args, "profit_target", None))
|
||
|
||
|
||
def cmd_report(args):
|
||
balance = _resolve_balance(args)
|
||
broker = args.broker
|
||
tf = args.tf.upper()
|
||
reconfigure_for_tf(tf)
|
||
|
||
try:
|
||
params = get_best_params(balance=balance, broker=broker, tf=tf)
|
||
except Exception:
|
||
params = {}
|
||
|
||
df = process_pipeline(obs_cov=params.get("obs_cov"), trans_cov=params.get("trans_cov"),
|
||
save=False, tf=tf)
|
||
|
||
_hmm_path = hmm_model_path(tf, broker)
|
||
if not _hmm_path.exists():
|
||
_hmm_path = None # let the except branch fit a fresh one
|
||
try:
|
||
if _hmm_path is None:
|
||
raise FileNotFoundError
|
||
model_hmm = load_hmm(_hmm_path)
|
||
from src.engine_hmm import predict_states, STATE_NAMES_3, STATE_NAMES_2, STATE_NAMES_4
|
||
states = predict_states(model_hmm, df)
|
||
n = model_hmm.n_components
|
||
state_names = {2: STATE_NAMES_2, 3: STATE_NAMES_3, 4: STATE_NAMES_4}.get(n, STATE_NAMES_3)
|
||
except Exception:
|
||
model_hmm, states, state_names = fit_hmm(df, n_states=resolve_n_states(tf, params))
|
||
|
||
# Load the saved feature scaler so the report uses identical scaling to training
|
||
try:
|
||
_feat_scaler = load_feature_scaler(tf=tf, broker=broker)
|
||
except FileNotFoundError:
|
||
_feat_scaler = None # old model without scaler — prepare_features fits fresh
|
||
|
||
X, y, df_aligned, _ = prepare_features(df, states, feature_scaler=_feat_scaler, tf=tf)
|
||
|
||
_xgb_path = get_ensemble_path(tf, broker)
|
||
if not _xgb_path.exists():
|
||
_xgb_path = ENSEMBLE_PKL_PATH
|
||
try:
|
||
models_xgb, thresholds_xgb, metrics = load_xgb_ensemble(_xgb_path)
|
||
# If the saved ensemble was trained with different features (e.g. before DXY
|
||
# was added), retrain in-memory so the report stays consistent with the data.
|
||
if metrics.get("feature_cols") != list(X.columns):
|
||
raise ValueError("Feature mismatch — retraining for report.")
|
||
except (FileNotFoundError, ValueError):
|
||
models_xgb, thresholds_xgb, metrics = train_xgb_ensemble(
|
||
X, y,
|
||
max_depth=params.get("max_depth", 4),
|
||
learning_rate=params.get("learning_rate", 0.1),
|
||
n_estimators=params.get("n_estimators", 200),
|
||
subsample=params.get("subsample", 0.8),
|
||
colsample_bytree=params.get("colsample_bytree", 0.8),
|
||
min_child_weight=params.get("min_child_weight", 5),
|
||
gamma=params.get("gamma", 1.0),
|
||
reg_alpha=params.get("reg_alpha", 0.1),
|
||
)
|
||
|
||
_, probabilities = get_predictions_ensemble(models_xgb, thresholds_xgb, X)
|
||
states_aligned = states[df.index.isin(df_aligned.index)]
|
||
|
||
# Ensure regime_stats are present (may be absent in pre-Z-Score saved models)
|
||
if not metrics.get("regime_stats"):
|
||
_rs_split = metrics.get("split_idx") or int(len(X) * 0.8)
|
||
_X_is = X.iloc[:_rs_split]
|
||
_hs_is = states_aligned[:len(_X_is)]
|
||
metrics["regime_stats"] = compute_regime_stats(models_xgb, thresholds_xgb, _X_is, _hs_is)
|
||
|
||
# split_idx=None means the model was trained with train_ratio=1.0 (full-data /
|
||
# CPCV mode). In that case keep split_idx=None so the report backtest is
|
||
# also full-period — matching the training output exactly.
|
||
# Only fall back to 80/20 when a stored split_idx exists but doesn't fit the
|
||
# current data (e.g. loaded from a model trained on a different TF).
|
||
split_idx = metrics.get("split_idx")
|
||
if split_idx is not None and not (0 < split_idx < len(X)):
|
||
split_idx = int(len(X) * 0.8)
|
||
|
||
result = vectorized_backtest(
|
||
df_aligned, probabilities, states_aligned,
|
||
split_idx=split_idx, account_size=balance, broker=broker, tf=tf,
|
||
hmm_transmat=model_hmm.transmat_, # use real persistence values, consistent with optimizer CPCV
|
||
)
|
||
|
||
# ── Inject CPCV OOS stats from last --mode optimize run if available ─────
|
||
_cpcv_json = Path(f"reports/cpcv_{tf.lower()}_{broker}.json")
|
||
if not _cpcv_json.exists():
|
||
# Try to backfill from the existing Optuna study DB
|
||
try:
|
||
from src.optimizer import save_best_trial_cpcv
|
||
save_best_trial_cpcv(broker=broker, tf=tf, balance=balance)
|
||
except Exception as _be:
|
||
logger.warning("Could not backfill CPCV JSON from study: %s", _be)
|
||
if _cpcv_json.exists():
|
||
try:
|
||
_cpcv = json.loads(_cpcv_json.read_text())
|
||
result["cpcv_score"] = _cpcv.get("cpcv_score", 0.0)
|
||
result["cpcv_n_valid_paths"] = _cpcv.get("n_valid_paths", 0)
|
||
result["oos_sharpe_ratio"] = _cpcv.get("median_sharpe", 0.0)
|
||
result["oos_n_trades"] = _cpcv.get("median_trades", 0)
|
||
result["oos_win_rate"] = _cpcv.get("median_win_rate", 0.0)
|
||
result["oos_max_drawdown"] = _cpcv.get("median_drawdown", 0.0)
|
||
result["oos_floating_max_drawdown"] = _cpcv.get("median_drawdown", 0.0)
|
||
result["oos_total_return"] = _cpcv.get("median_return", 0.0)
|
||
result["cpcv_path_scores"] = _cpcv.get("path_scores", [])
|
||
result["cpcv_std_sharpe"] = _cpcv.get("std_sharpe", 0.0)
|
||
logger.info(
|
||
"Loaded CPCV OOS stats from %s — median_sharpe=%.3f median_trades=%d",
|
||
_cpcv_json, result["oos_sharpe_ratio"], result["oos_n_trades"],
|
||
)
|
||
except Exception as _e:
|
||
logger.warning("Could not load CPCV JSON (%s): %s", _cpcv_json, _e)
|
||
|
||
arm = AdaptiveRiskManager(balance, broker=broker)
|
||
limits = arm.get_trade_limits()
|
||
display_params = dict(params)
|
||
display_params.update({
|
||
"broker": broker,
|
||
"balance_usd": balance,
|
||
"tier": "small" if arm.is_small_account else "growth",
|
||
"pos_per_trade": limits["pos_per_trade"],
|
||
"tf": tf,
|
||
})
|
||
|
||
paths = generate_full_report(
|
||
df_aligned, states_aligned, state_names, model_hmm,
|
||
X, probabilities, metrics, result, display_params,
|
||
split_idx=split_idx, tf=tf, broker=broker,
|
||
account_size=balance,
|
||
)
|
||
|
||
print(f"\n=== Report Generated [{tf} / {broker}] ===")
|
||
for p in paths:
|
||
print(f" {p}")
|
||
print(f"\n{len(paths)} charts saved to reports/{tf}_{broker}/")
|
||
|
||
|
||
def cmd_audit(args):
|
||
"""Print (and optionally send) the daily MT5 performance report."""
|
||
from src.auditor import get_daily_report
|
||
from src.notifier import send_telegram_msg
|
||
|
||
balance = _resolve_balance(args)
|
||
report = get_daily_report(broker=args.broker)
|
||
print(report)
|
||
sent = send_telegram_msg(report)
|
||
if sent:
|
||
print("\nReport also sent to Telegram.")
|
||
else:
|
||
print("\n(Telegram not configured — see .env.example)")
|
||
|
||
|
||
def cmd_guardian(args):
|
||
"""Start the multi-TF health monitor loop."""
|
||
from src.guardian import run_guardian
|
||
|
||
balance = _resolve_balance(args)
|
||
tfs = [t.strip().upper() for t in args.tf.split(",")]
|
||
interval = getattr(args, "interval", 3600)
|
||
|
||
run_guardian(
|
||
tfs=tfs,
|
||
broker=args.broker,
|
||
account_size=balance,
|
||
period=args.period,
|
||
interval_sec=interval,
|
||
)
|
||
|
||
|
||
def cmd_consolidate(args):
|
||
"""Consolidate multi-asset CSV exports in data/raw/ into per-TF master files.
|
||
|
||
Processes 5 assets × 3 timeframes = 15 master files in data/processed/.
|
||
Assets: USDCHF, XAGUSD, XTIUSD, US500, USDJPY.
|
||
Timeframes: H1, M15, M5.
|
||
"""
|
||
from src.data_consolidator import consolidate_asset, ASSET_CONFIGS
|
||
|
||
assets = list(ASSET_CONFIGS.keys())
|
||
tfs = ["H1", "M15", "M5"]
|
||
|
||
n_ok = 0
|
||
for asset in assets:
|
||
for tf in tfs:
|
||
result = consolidate_asset(asset, tf)
|
||
if not result.empty:
|
||
out = ASSET_CONFIGS[asset][tf]["output"]
|
||
print(f" {asset} {tf}: {len(result)} rows → data/processed/{out}")
|
||
n_ok += 1
|
||
else:
|
||
logger.warning("%s %s: no source files found — skipping.", asset, tf)
|
||
|
||
print(f"\nConsolidation complete: {n_ok}/{len(assets) * len(tfs)} master files produced.")
|
||
|
||
|
||
def cmd_listen(args):
|
||
"""Start the Telegram remote control listener + nightly report scheduler."""
|
||
import threading
|
||
from src.remote_control import run_listener
|
||
from src.notifier import send_telegram_msg
|
||
from src.auditor import get_daily_report
|
||
|
||
balance = _resolve_balance(args)
|
||
|
||
# ── Nightly audit scheduler (runs in background thread) ──────────────────
|
||
def _run_scheduler():
|
||
try:
|
||
import schedule
|
||
except ImportError:
|
||
logger.warning(
|
||
"schedule package not installed — nightly report disabled. "
|
||
"Install with: pip install schedule"
|
||
)
|
||
return
|
||
|
||
def _send_nightly():
|
||
report = get_daily_report(broker=args.broker)
|
||
send_telegram_msg(f"<b>Nightly Report</b>\n{report}")
|
||
logger.info("Nightly report sent via Telegram.")
|
||
|
||
schedule.every().day.at("23:55").do(_send_nightly)
|
||
logger.info("Nightly report scheduled at 23:55 UTC.")
|
||
while True:
|
||
schedule.run_pending()
|
||
time.sleep(60)
|
||
|
||
sched_thread = threading.Thread(target=_run_scheduler, daemon=True)
|
||
sched_thread.start()
|
||
|
||
# ── Blocking Telegram listener ────────────────────────────────────────────
|
||
run_listener()
|
||
|
||
|
||
|
||
def cmd_sensitivity(args):
|
||
"""Z-Score sensitivity analysis on already-trained models.
|
||
|
||
Loops over Bull/Bear Z-Score cutoff values (1.5 .. 3.0 in 0.25 steps),
|
||
reruns the OOS backtest for each, and prints a comparison table so you can
|
||
see whether the current cutoff is optimal. MR (Chop) cutoffs are held
|
||
constant throughout.
|
||
|
||
Usage:
|
||
python main.py --mode sensitivity --tf H1 --broker headway_cent --balance 15
|
||
"""
|
||
from src.sensitivity import run_sensitivity
|
||
|
||
balance = _resolve_balance(args)
|
||
tf = args.tf.upper()
|
||
broker = args.broker
|
||
reconfigure_for_tf(tf)
|
||
|
||
# Load processed data + models exactly as cmd_report does
|
||
try:
|
||
params = get_best_params(balance=balance, broker=broker, tf=tf)
|
||
except Exception:
|
||
params = {}
|
||
|
||
df = process_pipeline(
|
||
obs_cov=params.get("obs_cov"), trans_cov=params.get("trans_cov"),
|
||
save=False, tf=tf,
|
||
)
|
||
|
||
_hmm_path = hmm_model_path(tf, broker)
|
||
if not _hmm_path.exists():
|
||
_hmm_path = None
|
||
try:
|
||
if _hmm_path is None:
|
||
raise FileNotFoundError
|
||
model_hmm = load_hmm(_hmm_path)
|
||
from src.engine_hmm import predict_states
|
||
states = predict_states(model_hmm, df)
|
||
except Exception:
|
||
logger.warning("No saved HMM found for %s/%s — fitting fresh.", tf, broker)
|
||
model_hmm, states, _ = fit_hmm(df, n_states=resolve_n_states(tf, params))
|
||
|
||
try:
|
||
_feat_scaler = load_feature_scaler(tf=tf, broker=broker)
|
||
except FileNotFoundError:
|
||
_feat_scaler = None
|
||
|
||
X, y, df_aligned, _ = prepare_features(df, states, feature_scaler=_feat_scaler, tf=tf)
|
||
|
||
_xgb_path = get_ensemble_path(tf, broker)
|
||
if not _xgb_path.exists():
|
||
_xgb_path = ENSEMBLE_PKL_PATH
|
||
try:
|
||
models_xgb, thresholds_xgb, metrics = load_xgb_ensemble(_xgb_path)
|
||
if metrics.get("feature_cols") != list(X.columns):
|
||
raise ValueError("Feature mismatch")
|
||
except (FileNotFoundError, ValueError):
|
||
logger.warning("No saved ensemble found for %s/%s — can't run sensitivity.", tf, broker)
|
||
return
|
||
|
||
_, probabilities = get_predictions_ensemble(models_xgb, thresholds_xgb, X)
|
||
states_aligned = states[df.index.isin(df_aligned.index)]
|
||
|
||
if not metrics.get("regime_stats"):
|
||
_rs_split = metrics.get("split_idx") or int(len(X) * 0.8)
|
||
metrics["regime_stats"] = compute_regime_stats(
|
||
models_xgb, thresholds_xgb,
|
||
X.iloc[:_rs_split], states_aligned[:_rs_split],
|
||
)
|
||
|
||
split_idx = metrics.get("split_idx")
|
||
if split_idx is None or not (0 < split_idx < len(X)):
|
||
split_idx = int(len(X) * 0.8)
|
||
|
||
run_sensitivity(
|
||
tf=tf,
|
||
broker=broker,
|
||
balance=balance,
|
||
df_aligned=df_aligned,
|
||
probabilities=probabilities,
|
||
states_aligned=states_aligned,
|
||
split_idx=split_idx,
|
||
regime_stats=metrics["regime_stats"],
|
||
)
|
||
|
||
|
||
def cmd_montecarlo(args):
|
||
"""Monte Carlo stress-test for an already-trained model.
|
||
|
||
Two tests are run in sequence:
|
||
|
||
1. **Trade reshuffling** — the chronological PnL sequence from a baseline
|
||
backtest is randomly permuted 10,000 times to reveal the worst-case
|
||
sequence-of-returns risk (95th-pctl MaxDD and Risk of Ruin).
|
||
|
||
2. **Price perturbation** — the OHLC prices are perturbed with tiny
|
||
multiplicative noise (std 0.0002 ≈ 2 pips) and the full bar-loop is
|
||
re-run 100 times to confirm the strategy survives execution slippage.
|
||
|
||
Usage::
|
||
|
||
python main.py --mode montecarlo --tf M15 --broker headway_cent --balance 15
|
||
"""
|
||
import numpy as np
|
||
from src.monte_carlo import run_trade_reshuffle
|
||
from src.backtester import vectorized_backtest
|
||
|
||
balance = _resolve_balance(args)
|
||
broker = args.broker
|
||
tf = args.tf.upper()
|
||
reconfigure_for_tf(tf)
|
||
|
||
logger.info("Starting Monte Carlo Stress Test [%s / %s] balance=$%.0f",
|
||
tf, broker, balance)
|
||
|
||
# ── Load models (mirrors cmd_report loading logic) ────────────────────────
|
||
try:
|
||
params = get_best_params(balance=balance, broker=broker, tf=tf)
|
||
except Exception:
|
||
params = {}
|
||
|
||
df = process_pipeline(
|
||
obs_cov=params.get("obs_cov"), trans_cov=params.get("trans_cov"),
|
||
save=False, tf=tf,
|
||
)
|
||
|
||
_hmm_path = hmm_model_path(tf, broker)
|
||
try:
|
||
model_hmm = load_hmm(_hmm_path)
|
||
from src.engine_hmm import predict_states
|
||
states = predict_states(model_hmm, df)
|
||
except Exception:
|
||
model_hmm, states, _ = fit_hmm(df, n_states=resolve_n_states(tf, params))
|
||
|
||
try:
|
||
_feat_scaler = load_feature_scaler(tf=tf, broker=broker)
|
||
except FileNotFoundError:
|
||
_feat_scaler = None
|
||
|
||
X, y, df_aligned, _ = prepare_features(df, states, feature_scaler=_feat_scaler, tf=tf)
|
||
|
||
_xgb_path = get_ensemble_path(tf, broker)
|
||
if not _xgb_path.exists():
|
||
_xgb_path = ENSEMBLE_PKL_PATH
|
||
try:
|
||
models_xgb, thresholds_xgb, metrics = load_xgb_ensemble(_xgb_path)
|
||
if metrics.get("feature_cols") != list(X.columns):
|
||
raise ValueError("Feature mismatch")
|
||
except (FileNotFoundError, ValueError):
|
||
models_xgb, thresholds_xgb, metrics = train_xgb_ensemble(
|
||
X, y,
|
||
max_depth=params.get("max_depth", 4),
|
||
learning_rate=params.get("learning_rate", 0.1),
|
||
n_estimators=params.get("n_estimators", 200),
|
||
subsample=params.get("subsample", 0.8),
|
||
colsample_bytree=params.get("colsample_bytree", 0.8),
|
||
min_child_weight=params.get("min_child_weight", 5),
|
||
gamma=params.get("gamma", 1.0),
|
||
reg_alpha=params.get("reg_alpha", 0.1),
|
||
)
|
||
|
||
_, probabilities = get_predictions_ensemble(models_xgb, thresholds_xgb, X)
|
||
states_aligned = states[df.index.isin(df_aligned.index)]
|
||
split_idx = metrics.get("split_idx")
|
||
if split_idx is not None and not (0 < split_idx < len(X)):
|
||
split_idx = int(len(X) * 0.8)
|
||
|
||
# ── 1. Baseline chronological backtest → raw trades ───────────────────────
|
||
logger.info("Running baseline chronological backtest...")
|
||
baseline = vectorized_backtest(
|
||
df_aligned, probabilities, states_aligned,
|
||
split_idx=split_idx, account_size=balance, broker=broker, tf=tf,
|
||
hmm_transmat=model_hmm.transmat_,
|
||
return_trades=True,
|
||
)
|
||
baseline_ret = baseline["returns"] if "returns" in baseline else np.array([])
|
||
# strategy_returns lives under 'returns' or can be recomputed from equity
|
||
# Use the direct array stored in the result dict
|
||
_strat_ret = baseline.get("returns",
|
||
np.diff(np.log(baseline["equity_values"]),
|
||
prepend=np.log(balance)))
|
||
_active = _strat_ret[_strat_ret != 0]
|
||
_ann_factor = {"H1": np.sqrt(252 * 24), "M15": np.sqrt(252 * 96),
|
||
"M5": np.sqrt(252 * 288)}.get(tf, np.sqrt(252 * 24))
|
||
baseline_sharpe = (
|
||
_ann_factor * np.mean(_active) / np.std(_active)
|
||
if len(_active) > 2 and np.std(_active) > 0 else 0.0
|
||
)
|
||
|
||
trades_df = baseline.get("trades_df")
|
||
if trades_df is None or len(trades_df) == 0:
|
||
logger.warning("No trades in baseline backtest — Monte Carlo results will be trivial.")
|
||
trades_list = []
|
||
else:
|
||
trades_list = trades_df[["pnl"]].rename(columns={"pnl": "pnl"}).to_dict("records")
|
||
|
||
# ── 2. Trade reshuffling (sequence-of-returns risk) ────────────────────────
|
||
logger.info("Executing Sequence of Returns Reshuffling (10,000 iterations)...")
|
||
mc_results = run_trade_reshuffle(trades_list, initial_balance=balance)
|
||
|
||
# ── 3. Price perturbation (execution / wick risk) ─────────────────────────
|
||
logger.info("Executing Price Perturbation Simulation (100 iterations at noise_std=0.0002)...")
|
||
noise_sharpes = []
|
||
for _ in range(100):
|
||
_res = vectorized_backtest(
|
||
df_aligned, probabilities, states_aligned,
|
||
split_idx=split_idx, account_size=balance, broker=broker, tf=tf,
|
||
hmm_transmat=model_hmm.transmat_,
|
||
return_trades=False,
|
||
noise_std=0.0002,
|
||
)
|
||
_nr = _res.get("returns",
|
||
np.diff(np.log(_res["equity_values"]), prepend=np.log(balance)))
|
||
_nv = _nr[_nr != 0]
|
||
if len(_nv) > 2 and np.std(_nv) > 0:
|
||
noise_sharpes.append(_ann_factor * np.mean(_nv) / np.std(_nv))
|
||
|
||
if noise_sharpes:
|
||
median_noise_sharpe = float(np.median(noise_sharpes))
|
||
worst_noise_sharpe = float(np.min(noise_sharpes))
|
||
else:
|
||
median_noise_sharpe = worst_noise_sharpe = 0.0
|
||
|
||
# ── Summary ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
|
||
logger.info("=== Monte Carlo Stress Test Complete ===")
|
||
logger.info("Baseline Sharpe: %.3f", baseline_sharpe)
|
||
logger.info("Median Noise Sharpe: %.3f", median_noise_sharpe)
|
||
logger.info("Worst Noise Sharpe: %.3f", worst_noise_sharpe)
|
||
logger.info("Risk of 50%% Ruin: %.2f%%", mc_results.get("risk_of_ruin_pct", 0.0))
|
||
logger.info("95th Pctl MaxDD: %.1f%%", mc_results.get("95th_percentile_dd", 0.0) * 100)
|
||
|
||
print(f"\n=== Monte Carlo Stress Test [{tf} / {broker}] ===")
|
||
print(f" Baseline Sharpe: {baseline_sharpe:.3f}")
|
||
print(f" Median Noise Sharpe: {median_noise_sharpe:.3f}")
|
||
print(f" Worst Noise Sharpe: {worst_noise_sharpe:.3f}")
|
||
ror = mc_results.get('risk_of_ruin_pct', 0.0)
|
||
dd95 = mc_results.get('95th_percentile_dd', 0.0) * 100
|
||
print(f" Risk of 50% Ruin: {ror:.2f}%")
|
||
print(f" 95th Pctl MaxDD: {dd95:.1f}%")
|
||
n_trades = len(trades_list)
|
||
print(f" Trades in baseline: {n_trades}")
|
||
if n_trades == 0:
|
||
print(" [!] WARNING: No trades — model may need retraining or thresholds are too strict.")
|
||
if ror > 5.0:
|
||
print(" [!] WARNING: Risk of Ruin >5% — consider tightening position sizing.")
|
||
if dd95 > 30.0:
|
||
print(" [!] WARNING: 95th-pctl MaxDD >30% — sequence risk is elevated.")
|
||
|
||
|
||
def _validate_h1_args(args) -> None:
|
||
"""Fail-fast validation for H1 gate/floor CLI overrides.
|
||
|
||
Called before mode dispatch so invalid ranges produce a clear error rather
|
||
than a cryptic crash inside the optimizer or signal engine.
|
||
"""
|
||
checks = [
|
||
("h1_entry_prob", 0.50, 0.90, "[0.50, 0.90]"),
|
||
("h1_min_median_sharpe", -1.0, 2.0, "[-1.0, 2.0]"),
|
||
("h1_min_median_pf", 0.5, 3.0, "[0.5, 3.0]"),
|
||
("h1_max_trades_per_100", 0.5, 20.0, "[0.5, 20.0]"),
|
||
]
|
||
for attr, lo, hi, rng in checks:
|
||
val = getattr(args, attr, None)
|
||
if val is not None and not (lo <= val <= hi):
|
||
print(
|
||
f"\nERROR: --{attr} {val} is out of valid range {rng}.\n"
|
||
f"Fix: pass a value within {rng} or omit the flag to use the default.\n"
|
||
)
|
||
sys.exit(1)
|
||
|
||
|
||
def main():
|
||
parser = argparse.ArgumentParser(description="Gold Regime X — Hybrid ML Trading System")
|
||
parser.add_argument(
|
||
"--mode",
|
||
choices=["process", "optimize", "train", "compare", "export", "report",
|
||
"sync_validate", "sync_validation", "demo", "live", "audit", "guardian", "listen",
|
||
"consolidate", "wfa", "sensitivity", "extract_consensus",
|
||
"montecarlo"],
|
||
required=True,
|
||
)
|
||
parser.add_argument("--trials", type=int, default=250)
|
||
parser.add_argument("--n_jobs", type=int, default=1,
|
||
help="Parallel Optuna trial workers (default 1). "
|
||
"See optimizer.py for caveats with n_jobs>1.")
|
||
parser.add_argument("--interval", type=int, default=3600,
|
||
help="Guardian check interval in seconds (default 3600 = 1h).")
|
||
parser.add_argument("--min_cap", type=float, default=15.0,
|
||
help="Account capital in USD (legacy, use --balance)")
|
||
parser.add_argument("--balance", type=float, default=None,
|
||
help="Account balance in USD — overrides --min_cap")
|
||
parser.add_argument("--broker", type=str, default="standard",
|
||
choices=["standard", "headway_cent"])
|
||
parser.add_argument("--tf", type=str, default="H1",
|
||
help="Timeframe: H1 | M15 | M15,H1 (process/compare accept comma list)")
|
||
parser.add_argument("--period", type=str, default="3m",
|
||
help="Lookback window for MT5 sync, e.g. '3m' '6m' '12m'.")
|
||
parser.add_argument("--yes", action="store_true",
|
||
help="Skip the interactive live-account confirmation (used when launched as a subprocess).")
|
||
parser.add_argument("--profit_target", type=float, default=None,
|
||
help="Quick-profit close threshold in USD. M5 defaults to 4.0; "
|
||
"other TFs disabled unless set. Pass 0 to disable on M5.")
|
||
parser.add_argument("--skip_stale_check", action="store_true",
|
||
help="Bypass the model-staleness gate on --mode live/demo. "
|
||
"Use when intentionally running an older model (e.g. demo testing).")
|
||
parser.add_argument("--train_days", type=int, default=None,
|
||
help="WFA IS window in calendar days (default: H1=365, M15=180, M5=90).")
|
||
parser.add_argument("--test_days", type=int, default=None,
|
||
help="WFA OOS step size in calendar days (default: H1=90, M15=60, M5=30).")
|
||
parser.add_argument("--fast_wfo", action="store_true",
|
||
help="Use faster WFO window sizes for --mode optimize and --mode wfa.")
|
||
parser.add_argument("--top_n", type=int, default=10,
|
||
help="Top-N trials to aggregate for --mode extract_consensus (default 10).")
|
||
parser.add_argument("--min_wfe", type=float, default=0.0,
|
||
help="Minimum WFE ratio filter for --mode extract_consensus (default 0).")
|
||
parser.add_argument(
|
||
"--stage", type=str, default=None, choices=["xgb", "trading"],
|
||
help=(
|
||
"[DEPRECATED] --stage is deprecated and ignored. "
|
||
"Unified single-stage CPCV optimization is always used. "
|
||
"Accepted for backward compatibility only."
|
||
),
|
||
)
|
||
# ── H1 profitability safeguards (override optimizer defaults) ─────────────
|
||
parser.add_argument(
|
||
"--h1_entry_prob", type=float, default=None,
|
||
help="H1 XGBoost entry probability gate override [0.50, 0.90] (default 0.575). "
|
||
"Passed as fixed override to live/demo; also primes the search range start for optimize.",
|
||
)
|
||
parser.add_argument(
|
||
"--h1_min_median_sharpe", type=float, default=None,
|
||
help="H1 minimum acceptable median CPCV Sharpe floor. Trials below are penalized. "
|
||
"Default 0.10. Valid range [-1.0, 2.0].",
|
||
)
|
||
parser.add_argument(
|
||
"--h1_min_median_pf", type=float, default=None,
|
||
help="H1 minimum acceptable median profit factor. Default 1.02. Valid range [0.5, 3.0].",
|
||
)
|
||
parser.add_argument(
|
||
"--h1_max_trades_per_100", type=float, default=None,
|
||
help="H1 maximum trades per 100 bars before turnover penalty fires. "
|
||
"Default 4.0. Valid range [0.5, 20.0].",
|
||
)
|
||
parser.add_argument(
|
||
"--reset_study", action="store_true", default=False,
|
||
help="Delete the Optuna study DB for the given broker before optimizing. "
|
||
"Required when the search space or feature set has changed.",
|
||
)
|
||
|
||
args = parser.parse_args()
|
||
_validate_h1_args(args)
|
||
{
|
||
"process": cmd_process,
|
||
"optimize": cmd_optimize,
|
||
"train": cmd_train,
|
||
"compare": cmd_compare,
|
||
"export": cmd_export,
|
||
"report": cmd_report,
|
||
"sync_validate": cmd_sync_validate,
|
||
"sync_validation": cmd_sync_validate,
|
||
"demo": cmd_demo,
|
||
"live": cmd_live,
|
||
"audit": cmd_audit,
|
||
"guardian": cmd_guardian,
|
||
"listen": cmd_listen,
|
||
"consolidate": cmd_consolidate,
|
||
"wfa": cmd_wfa,
|
||
"sensitivity": cmd_sensitivity,
|
||
"extract_consensus": cmd_extract_consensus,
|
||
"montecarlo": cmd_montecarlo,
|
||
}[args.mode](args)
|
||
|
||
|
||
if __name__ == "__main__":
|
||
main()
|